Trapping Mafia

Bicephalous Bob · Post Post #0 (isolation #0) » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:44 am

Trapping Mafia

2 Goons
5 Townies

Once during the game, a townie may set a trap. If a goon attempts to kill a townie who set a trap, the goon is eliminated instead.

Bicephalous Bob · Post Post #4 (isolation #1) » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:58 pm

In post 1, Randomnamechange wrote:so bsaically 2 v 5 PGOs?
seems like it could be decent, although a scum lynch day 1 kinda fucks scum a bit

Not exactly, PGOs still die if they're shot while armed.

In post 3, acidphoenix wrote:do you actually acknowledge the mechanics or just pretend it's nightless

Oh man, can't believe I forgot to consider this. First solution that comes to mind is to only allow one no-kill and one no-lynch, but it's not really satisfactory.

Bicephalous Bob · Post Post #6 (isolation #2) » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:16 pm

I haven't run any numbers, but if a goon is lynched d1 and the remaining goon no-kills n1, it might be optimal to nl to force a shot and get back to odd numbers. Two nl's are probably never necessary, though.

Bicephalous Bob · Post Post #8 (isolation #3) » Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:33 pm

I calculated the binomial probs for the single no-kill setup, but I got different results. Am I correct in thinking you used n=3, p=1/3? It's n=2, since scum cannot die in the night they no-kill.

In post 7, callforjudgement wrote:this setup balances similarly to a 6:1

I'd say 5:1.

So town EV is 11 + .44 * (EV 5:1) + .44 * (EV 5:2) = .11 + .44 * 47% + .44 * 23% = 41%.