Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[Cipher]

Hi. Looks like Jesse outed me already.

Reading the thread now, will post more when I've got it.

[Cipher]

A few comments, as I'm still catching up on days 1 and 2:

I think I see who Justin investigated N1, but no idea on N0. I think he got a town result, so I'll steer clear of that person with my future investigations.

I don't really think that stats are very helpful in determining what roles we have. Either we have x number of cops/doctors/whatever or we don't - working out the odds doesn't help. I agree with what The Fonz said in post 413 about this.

I'm checking with the Mod whether I'd get a guilty result on the SK, as the PMs aren't clear on this and my result for Six Aces on night 0 was "Mafia".

Spacecase looks like the favoured lynch atm, I didn't like Rigel and dahill's votes just for lurking, and Oman did basically the same thing though he hid it a little bit better (because he's a vet?). I definitely got the impression that dahill hadn't really read the game and decided to just hop on the easiest wagon, but this might be a sign that he's reckless town rather than careless mafia. I just saw his post 464 and LOLed.

I don't particularly think that Oman is scum right now. I'll read back through Spacecase's older posts and see what I think.

[Cipher]

Well that didn't take long. There's not much to look at in Spacecase's posts except for the quick switch on kabenon, which was definitely suspect. He did throw vague suspicion on Jesse/me at the start of day 2, and he's been very reluctant to answer relevant questions today. I don't think he's a bad lynch, but I'm looking at a few other people before I decide who to vote for.

[Cipher]

Hmmm... I've found a couple of players on re-read that I think might be good suspects, but I'm thinking that I might keep their names to myself at this point unless someone else talks about them. My theory is that if I say their names in the thread then there's a good chance that the scum will kill one of them tonight if they're a townie, which means I get no use from my investigation.

The other thing that I'm thinking is that we've probably got a doctor protecting me, so I won't give out innocent results in the thread any more unless the doctor dies or the player I investigated is in danger of being lynched. I figure that the less the scum know about who's confirmed town the better.

Can I get some feedback on whether these are good ideas?

[Cipher]

I think Phate is scummy and not being discussed much today.

[Cipher]

All of my results have already been claimed by Jesse.

Phate was Bizarro Spacecase at the end of yesterday, going from "This is where I would vote kab, except that it would put him at L-1" to "The case on kab isn't great, in my opinion. I don't think he's scum" faster than a speeding bullet.

I don't particularly buy the "It's odd that you think willingness to lynch and certainty of alignment go hand-in-hand" defence, either.

[Cipher]

so who do you think would be more likely to be scum? spacecase or phate? or possibly both?

I could probably take either, they're very similar reasons. My gut feel is that it's more likely that they're scum together than one of each.

[Cipher]

i wasn't using it as a second argument, i'm just saying it's possible that SC could not be lynched if something suspicious turns up.

Nothing suspicious is going to turn up if we just keep talking about Spacecase.

The other thing on Phate was his thing about being surprised Jesse was still alive. I looked up that congratulating the doctor thing that he mentioned in the same post and apparently it is a real scumtell - does this apply any less because he brought it up himself?

[Cipher]

Nope.

Also,

Vote: Phate

I feel good about this choice.

[Cipher]

I mean that he brought up the fact that it was a tell himself. It seems to me like the smart thing to do would be not to say it in the first place, so I'm not sure what he was trying to achieve by pretty much saying "I know this is scummy, but..."

[Cipher]

FOS Phate. I'd like to hear more from him. This also so goes back to something we talked about a *long time ago* . Phate was one of the 3 Justin talked about. I think I'm gonna run down the list on that before I worry about other things.

I don't particularly think that Phate was Justin's investigation, but if that makes you vote him then go for it.

I want to hear from those who aren't voting anyone and haven't yet commented on Phate. Where do you stand?

[Cipher]

This is messing with my head a bit.

I'm kind of ok with dahill, though I will stress that nobody should put any more faith in my case than anyone else's (unless I have a guilty, obv). I still like the Phate wagon better, and it really seems like this town is suffering from ADD.

[Cipher]

The best way to get SC lynched would be to vote for him and encourage others to do the same.

[Cipher]

Sorry, I've kind of lost track of things in here. I see Phate claimed doctor - I'm not totally convinced of his innocence, but if he's the doctor then he's going to die tonight anyway, since the scum will want to get to me as soon as possible. I'm particularly wary of the fact that he dropped hints to his role, which doesn't sound like something that a doctor would actually do.

Unvote

I had farside22 and shteven written down as suspects from my first readthrough, I'll look back over them and see what I can see.

[Cipher]

One more thing:
[quote="Shteven") Jesse, now Cipher, is a cop, and very likely sane.
2) Jesse/Cipher is scum and sold out a fellow player day 1.[/quote]
I'm

guaranteed

sane.

[Cipher]

Gah. That should be:

1) Jesse, now Cipher, is a cop, and very likely sane.
2) Jesse/Cipher is scum and sold out a fellow player day 1.

I'm

guaranteed

sane.

[Cipher]

I'm probably too late, but

Vote: Spacecase

anyway.

[Cipher]

Gah. I'm dead tonight, so I might as well claim my innocent result. Any objections?

[Cipher]

I'll wait a little longer to give my result, but I'll definitely call it before nightfall.

For the record, I believe that Justin's Night 1 investigation was an innocent on vollkan. This theory largely revolves around this post, in which Justin seems to be basing his case against kabenon on the presumption that vollkan is town.

I started to do some sleuthing, but realised that there's probably no point in trying to guess who MCD's mason buddy is at this stage. There are certainly a few people that can be eliminated from the list of possibles, so that will help if someone claims that role later on.

well being attacked by the dead doc is one thing. but being attacked by the cop is something else.

There would only be a difference if the cop had an investigation result on the person he suspected. Otherwise the cop and doc are operating on the same information.

[Cipher]

Ah k, thought you were talking about me.

[Cipher]

I might as well tell you at this point: my innocent result was on Rigel.

Obviously, this does not help dahill's cause.

[Cipher]

Yeah, the big deadline wagon on Rigel was the main reason that I chose to investigate him. Another good thing is that it's unlikely that Rigel is MCD's mason buddy (given MCD's vote for him at deadline yesterday), so we've potentially got another confirmable townie still out there.

dahill: The statement about "not helping your cause" was pretty much just me fishing to see if anyone would take the result and use it as a case against you. Looks like that's not going to happen.

Time to do some re-reading, methinks.

[Cipher]

A couple of thoughts on the current game state:

- With 10 players alive, if we mislynch today then we'll be in semi-LyLo tomorrow unless the SK kills mafia tonight. We need to kill at least one of the two remaining mafia no later than Night 5 to keep things going. If they're not already doing so, I'd suggest that the SK shoot for mafia tonight, as this is in both their interests and the interests of the town.

- We've currently got two confirmed non-mafiates (LaptopGun and Rigel), one unrevealed mason, and, in my opinion, one probable prior investigation target (vollkan). If you also eliminate me from lynch contention then there are only five good lynch targets left, which gives us a 100% chance of killing at least one of the mafia over the next two days if the SK is also killing people in that pool. Even if you include vollkan in the list there's a damn good chance of hitting mafia soon, and the other one wouldn't be far behind once the choices have been narrowed down. As such, I think it's probably in the mafia's best interests to be shooting for the SK over the next couple of nights to maximise their own chances of survival.

- I think that MCD's mason buddy should probably claim now. The scum don't really have kills to waste on townies right now, and I think that it would swing the numbers in our favour to have one more confirmed townie.

[Cipher]

The other thing is that both the SK and the mafia want their respective opposing scum faction wiped out in the next two days. I mentioned above that the SK will lose if both mafia are still alive after Night 5, but it should also be noted that if we get to Day 6 with one mafia and the SK still alive then it creates a four player prisoner's dilemma situation that is weighted heavily in the town's favour. As such, both factions really want to be trying to kill each other off in the next 2 days.

[Cipher]

Just to be sure: Any counterclaims? Kind of sucks that it was you, as I'd more or less eliminated you from contention already.

Interesting point that you make about The Fonz. After I did my analysis of the remaining players, I realised that we only had, at most, 6 players that we should even consider lynching today. This led me to think about this post:

My listt of lynchables today is down to 4-5 people. I'm not really buying Dahill as scum with Spacecase, but i really need a re-read to do justice to things. Coming.

He says he's cut his list down to 4-5 as though he's eliminated some people through a process of deduction, but it actually just means that he's eliminated the confirmed innocents/non-mafia, along with himself. If he was eliminating people on that basis then I'd expect him to have mentioned it more specifically. I was definitely left with the impression that he's coasting and allowing others to set up wagons for him to jump onto. He's made it onto my re-read list.

[Cipher]

Oman looks like a decent option to me. I'm not finished looking at everyone else yet, though.

[Cipher]

Actually, the SK would still have a slim chance of victory if he claimed now (see my earlier post). dcorbe should get a chance to claim SK if that's what he is, otherwise I'm thinking this wagon is probably going to end in his lynch. To be clear: the town categorically does not want to lynch the SK today.

I think that the makeup of the wagon may have something to with activity, though that doesn't completely explain it.

[Cipher]

Reasons to lynch the claimed SK:

1. You think he's lying and is really mafia.

2. You don't think that he can be trusted to act in his own best interests and shoot for scum tonight.

I haven't double checked the numbers, but what Shteven says above is basically correct. As I've said previously, the SK needs at least one of the mafia dead by Night 5 to avoid auto-lose. I also agree that Fonz's timing is somewhat suspect.

For various reasons, I'm not sure that I trust the claim, or trust dcorbe to fully commit to going after mafia tonight. As such, I'm considering dropping the hammer, but there's still discussion going on so I'll wait a little while longer before making that call.

[Cipher]

I'm really not seeing dcorbe as a likely SK at this point. If he claimed truthfully he should be sticking with it and arguing on that basis. Also, I want to go out with a bang since I'm most likely going to be dead tonight.

=====[] Vote: dcorbe

[Cipher]

C'est la vie. Go town!

[Cipher]

Yeah, I investigated The Fonz on the night I died. Kinda wish I hadn't pushed Phate now - way to screw myself over. Good game from the scums, a well-deserved win.