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Post Post #2184 (isolation #0) » Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:34 pm

Post by Porkens »

Dunker
Whymafia
Sub
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Post Post #2185 (isolation #1) » Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:35 pm

Post by Porkens »

And maybe taco
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Post Post #2191 (isolation #2) » Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:13 pm

Post by Porkens »

In post 2186, WhyMafia wrote:As scum? Dunker was IC and was NK'ed
Thanks.
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Post Post #2227 (isolation #3) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:10 am

Post by Porkens »

Sure, I'm VT. You go next.
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Post Post #2233 (isolation #4) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:41 am

Post by Porkens »

What's a neopolitan?

Oh sorry I forgot I'm not vt.
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Post Post #2236 (isolation #5) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:00 am

Post by Porkens »

sorry
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Post Post #2243 (isolation #6) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:45 am

Post by Porkens »

Sure. I am a 2-shot town commuter. If I activate my ability at night, any night actions that target me will fail.

Derpy activated it night 1.
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Post Post #2251 (isolation #7) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:27 am

Post by Porkens »

vote: Tchill


Claim pal.
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Post Post #2254 (isolation #8) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:43 am

Post by Porkens »

I skimmed 80+ pages and that's what my scum radar told me.

Tchill was always vying for a spot in the scumteam.
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Post Post #2261 (isolation #9) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:16 pm

Post by Porkens »

Michael, do you give a shit if he claims or not?
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Post Post #2266 (isolation #10) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:40 pm

Post by Porkens »

In post 2262, Michael22Omega wrote:
In post 2261, Porkens wrote:Michael, do you give a shit if he claims or not?
I feel like if he is power role he is going to claim vanilla, if he is vanilla he is gonna claim power role and if he is mafia he is gonna claim something that I will believe
So no, not really
K so why did you out me?
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Post Post #2272 (isolation #11) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:53 pm

Post by Porkens »

In post 2267, Boonskiies wrote:
In post 2266, Porkens wrote:
In post 2262, Michael22Omega wrote:
In post 2261, Porkens wrote:Michael, do you give a shit if he claims or not?
I feel like if he is power role he is going to claim vanilla, if he is vanilla he is gonna claim power role and if he is mafia he is gonna claim something that I will believe
So no, not really
K so why did you out me?
Because you had a direct contradiction to his action.
He just said he is fine with a town PR fakeclaiming.
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Post Post #2282 (isolation #12) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:17 pm

Post by Porkens »

In post 2278, WhyMafia wrote:TBH Porken's play so far has not been giving me good vibes. Having said that, people keep saying either TChill or myself is scum. For gods sake, don't leave us here till LYLO. Lynch one of us today. Use that information tomorrow. As a start, who believes Tchill is town
this is scum.
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Post Post #2286 (isolation #13) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:38 pm

Post by Porkens »

I'm voting Tchill because he didn't claim. MASSCLAIM doesn't mean two people go and then stop. Boon, you even said he was next. Why do you not care anymore?

I forgot what my role was. I fucked up. Sorry.

I didn't use my action night 2 because I didn't think my slot would be targeted.

Your vote is...shit!
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Post Post #2288 (isolation #14) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:38 pm

Post by Porkens »

In post 2284, WhyMafia wrote:
In post 2282, Porkens wrote:
In post 2278, WhyMafia wrote:TBH Porken's play so far has not been giving me good vibes. Having said that, people keep saying either TChill or myself is scum. For gods sake, don't leave us here till LYLO. Lynch one of us today. Use that information tomorrow. As a start, who believes Tchill is town
this is scum.
You might as well be renamed Derpy Hooves
I'm done talking to you.
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Post Post #2292 (isolation #15) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:59 pm

Post by Porkens »

Why is whymafia town to you all of a sudden boon?
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Post Post #2304 (isolation #16) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:20 pm

Post by Porkens »

I am not scum.

Please town, reach out to me.
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Post Post #2307 (isolation #17) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:24 pm

Post by Porkens »

Thank you.
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Post Post #2311 (isolation #18) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:38 pm

Post by Porkens »

In my secret heart, I have always mistrusted boon.

I I hope that with 5 town and 3 scum we actually have a good chance to hit one of those three scum today.

Hypothesize, for example, that I a am town. Who is town with me? Whymafia and taco didn't leave me lynchble, simplest explanation is they are town.

I totally and unforgivably fucked up my claim. I don't talk about my real life very much but I had a shiiiiittttttty week at work and life has been a little tilted. I didn't mean to fuck up and misremember my role. I thought I could look cool if I said "Mass claim? Sure, I'm by you go next" and it didn't even cross my mind that I wasn't vt. I replaced into this game at night, and then had to wait a couple days.

My initial gut reads are probably like 25% right. I don't really think I've pegged scum yet. I realize it's day 3 for y'all but this is like rvs for me. I skimmed 80mpages. For you. I replaced into the game, for you.

This is an ate, ur there is more:


Ok so I'm town. Tacos and whymaf are town. That's my assumption. I thought the lynches were bad. But I don't really know the specifics. It's just a thin skimmed memory.

So I'm feeling y'all out now.

Tchill lurked a lot. 9 that's my recollection, I'm not actually accusing him of anything.

Boon dropped out in the middle for personal reasons, and I hope all is well. But I've had a bscum read on him since page 1. Then he claimed something and he rose up in my townread, but I don't recall exactly why.

Whymafia just feels scum to me this game,but that's just my impression. I can't describe it.

He seems, bossy?

Sub seems scummy as fuck, but I think 80% of that red is he fact he doesn't have an avatar.

Re

I have to go check to see who replaced who
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Post Post #2312 (isolation #19) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:38 pm

Post by Porkens »

In post 2309, Michael22Omega wrote:How the fuck did you almost got to l-1 some people didn't even check in
Scum on the wagon
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Post Post #2315 (isolation #20) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:39 pm

Post by Porkens »

I'm not calling anyone scum, I'm just talking
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Post Post #2317 (isolation #21) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:40 pm

Post by Porkens »

And people fucking jumped me
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Post Post #2319 (isolation #22) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:41 pm

Post by Porkens »

Have you considered the scenario that you and boon are both scum?
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Post Post #2320 (isolation #23) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:41 pm

Post by Porkens »

Shit, no.
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Post Post #2322 (isolation #24) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:42 pm

Post by Porkens »

It's all the people not involved.
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Post Post #2323 (isolation #25) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:43 pm

Post by Porkens »

In post 2310, Boonskiies wrote:But yeah, the team is literally Boon, reaverb, and Sub.

If I’m wrong, Vigilante, kill me. It would mean I fucked up hard and deserved to lose, because if Why or Tchill dupes me this way, I will cry and admit that i’m inferior, and they deserved the win.
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Post Post #2327 (isolation #26) » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:48 pm

Post by Porkens »

Con...firmed?
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Post Post #2342 (isolation #27) » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:00 am

Post by Porkens »

In post 2339, reaverb wrote:
In post 2337, Michael22Omega wrote:Why did you quote this vote count specifically? like I'm pretty sure if you scroll through the day you'll find tones of vote counts and obviously town voted town. What's the point of his one specifically? just to give evidence I'm scum?
You don't appear to understand votal analysis.

Any L-1 wagon on a townie, but particularly the one quoted in context of it being a Porkens-Derpy-slot counterwagon, has a negligible chance of lacking scum in slots 2-5. Scum would have to be content to sit by while over half of Town mis-wagons a townie.
If Prokens is scum, scum would be jumping at the chance to jump to Amman, or if scum are remotely afraid of town jumping onto a scum if the Amman push fails, or if scum are looking to move their votes and the other options look bad, etc.


Other votals have information, but they're less strong because less players on them have flipped, and mostly imply things like "At least one of X or Y is Town", which is not very actionable.
In post 2340, reaverb wrote:Anyway let's talk more about the claims:

I looked over the last few completed Minis, and the setups seem to have around 4 "normal" town prs as the max. I found a couple which have 5 town prs, but there's always a catch - normally a couple of the town prs in the 5 town prs are somehow negative utility for Town. Examples: Odd and Even Night Role cops when when of the Mafia was a Weak Doctor, Town Daychat Enabler Neighbor (Neighbor is also more like half a pr, given it's very often Mafia).

None of the claims given are like that. All of them are un-ambiguously pro-Town, no wiggle room to subvert Town expectations and have it be negative utility. Neapolitan, Commuter, Vig, Innocent Child, Jailkeeper, Organzier-role are all clearly +EV Town roles with no possible subversions (except the possibility of the Organizer being scum).

Since the Vig is mechanically known to exist and two others have flipped, I'm pretty sure that at least 2/3 of {Porkens, M22O, Organizer} are scum (assuming Organizer exists, not completely unconvinced that Boonskiies is 1-shot Mafia Neighborer and lying like mad). I think the Organizer should claim or be outed by Why or Boon asap to help us sort through those 3.

I am pretty sure Porkens is one of the scum
there, the scenarios where M22O is Scum and Porkens is Town are really weird. I don't see M22O intentionally creating a 1 in 2 with Town!Porkens, so I think the situation it's remotely possible is if scum rolecop'd Porkens N2, which is unlikely as a prior.
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Post Post #2346 (isolation #28) » Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:36 am

Post by Porkens »

Boon, Serg, and Whymafia all confirm eachother town? Is that what you are saying?
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Post Post #2350 (isolation #29) » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:22 am

Post by Porkens »

what is an organizer?
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Post Post #2353 (isolation #30) » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:01 am

Post by Porkens »

huh, ok. I must be dumb then, what is mechanically confirmed in that case?
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Post Post #2355 (isolation #31) » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:03 am

Post by Porkens »

right, ok, but what was the whole burrito business?
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Post Post #2397 (isolation #32) » Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:25 pm

Post by Porkens »

Good job everyone. C u next techmo.
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