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[Toranaga]

I've set myself up to get lynched at least 3 times in this f5
chip butty kinda did as well
thor did as well

fitz' reads are pretty static. he appeared with a thor;tor as possible scum and I'm sure he didn't read the thread to any reasonable extent to be completely relaxed with the other two. IDK what mulch was doing at f9 if fitz is scum, but as far as f5 goes the one player who is posting in a way I associate more with scum is fitz.

I really don't know who the last scum player is but people have been doing shit here that I gutread as townie, apart from fitz. terrible yolo lynch? probably... unless he flips scum!

[Toranaga]

also fair to note, I could have stayed on thor, fitz would hammer him, and then I'd NK him and win f3 with tacos and chip if I was scum. my switch to fitz isn't scummy, I'll look weird for it and tacos and chip won't vote him with me I don't think goes against my wincon as scum to do such a thing.

[Toranaga]

I have a strong suspicion that Miseré is trying to pocket me because they are coming in with my exact reads and heavily praising my game. And some of the thoughts are shallow, like liking my analysis. It's easy to say I have good analysis with a big post but if they were going to lock me town on this I would have expected to see examples. It's a big claim to make at that stage in the game. What's also weird is that it's sort of like they "decided" I was town on that and then immediately began glorifying all my other posts in that set of pages.

I feel like there is a decent chance this is scum with TMI. I also notice that a lot of their posts have pretty obvious thoughts, like pointing out fluff or agreeing with posts people make, and it dosen't really show an effort to analyze or solve. Lot's of "observations", objective facts, and mindmelds.

I really like Skitter's recent posts. They came into the game and started scumreading people that hadn't voted them yet or were not voting them, which would mean that if they are scum they are taking the risk of them voting them for a bullshit read. It was daring and showed a lack of caring about how they are perceived. I think the fact they had the awareness to point out Tort scumreading Misere after previously calling them town showed they were really trying to analyze the gamestate (and I still need an explanation for that). Their aggresive and confident and not overly defesive to anyone except Thor which I can understand cause they're tunneling them conf-bias style based on one post. I could follow their reasoning on all of their points although not particularly in depth, and especially liked how they were scumreading the putting Havo into a team after the unvote (something I completely missed). I also like their tone.

I don't want to lynch Skitter today. I think there is a decent chance that wolves are jumping on town!thor confbiasing them, specifically MariaR who really bothered me by just making a post about catching up but still is just floating by letting their non-extremely serious vote on Skitter stand. I've found that people who leave votes on for extended periods of time have a higher chance of being wolf in general.

anyone else see the similarities here? those are the only posts mulch made on players that are full commentary mode without quoting anything and they're structured very similarly.

a pattern maybe?

[havingfitz]

Can someone fcuking hammer Tor? He is all over the place only looking for his own self preservation despite going so far as for show to vote himself at one point.

You say you don't think I've read the game to any reasonable extent but how does that accusation make me anymore scum than you? That's NAI. You've town read me practically the entire time I've been in this game and now when it looks like you can save your ass on me I'm your yolo mislynch.

I'm town. Someone hammer Tor. If I'm wrong on him at least town won't have to deal with the f'd up WIFOM that him being alive tomorrow would bring. But I'm not convinced he isn't scum. The fact that he has bussed both scum is not anything that's never been done before. Hell...all of you still alive bussed skitter and have of you bussed both, It doesn't clear anyone.

And using set up spec to clear yourself is a no go. Scum can set up spec with the best of them to suit their wincon.

And for someone who so masterfully pegged his two scum buddies early in the game...you have been pants on head since suspecting anyone the wind blows towards.

I'm town....vote Tor.

[Toranaga]

all over the place for self preservation despite voting myself and asking chip to hammer me. does that make any sense?

also I moved from thor who had two votes on him before you could hammer. how does that go for self preservation?

[havingfitz]

also I moved from thor who had two votes on him before you could hammer. how does that go for self preservation?

What are you talking about? I posted while he was at L-1...I could have hammed Thor. I prefer you for actual non yolo reasons.

[Toranaga]

that F3 'wifom' argument is pretty terrible

the only difference between me at f3 and anyone else at f3 is that, if I'm the town tracker, I can increase the town chance of winning to 50% as long as I don't track the NK

if I'm a wolf I might still play into that and and the remaining villager still has a 50% shot

me getting lynched now is terrible and 'wifom' doesn't work as a reason to do it

your other 'non-yolo' reasons are all meh

[Thor665]

So I'm who you suspect the most? Did I miss your case during my fake reading?

Depends how you define 'case' but I've assuredly discussed why I generally rule out other people and don't rule out you.

wow that's a towny vote

It was a bit towny other than the fact it is on town. You joining it is not however.

Thor...I'm town. Switch to Tor.

Taco...I'm town. Don't mindlessly sheep Tor.

If Tor is scum he's still a better lynch tomorrow when he's pretty much obligated to a 50/50.
I don't get the objective logic of lynching him before me if you think we're both generally possible scum.

[havingfitz]

I don't get the objective logic of lynching him before me

I suspect him more. Is that objective enough for you?

[havingfitz]

that F3 'wifom' argument is pretty terrible

the only difference between me at f3 and anyone else at f3 is that, if I'm the town tracker, I can increase the town chance of winning to 50% as long as I don't track the NK

if I'm a wolf I might still play into that and and the remaining villager still has a 50% shot

me getting lynched now is terrible and 'wifom' doesn't work as a reason to do it

your other 'non-yolo' reasons are all meh

It's not terrible. Your claim is worthless now. If todsy ends in a mislynch and you are still alive tomorrow your result means nothing because you could be lying scum.

No matter who is here tomorrow it would be a 25% chance of town winning. Each individual town member would jave a 50% chance regsrdless...and both hitting scum would = 25% chance.

Your claim and set up spec and bussing all mean nothing. You are no more cleared than anyone else and suspicions I've raised towards you are not meh.

A competent scum is going to try and push all the confirmation points you've been pushing. Since the first two scum have died you've been inconsistent as hell and willing to do anything...including lying (ex. your self vote) to get another step towards your wincon.

I'm town. Someone hammer Tor.

[Toranaga]

me everytime I read a post on this game: "stupid or scum?"

[Toranaga]

if I'm tracker, I have 66% chance of getting my vote 100% right
if I'm not tracker, I might wanna fake that anyway

that isn't the same as 3 players in a f3 where town can vote town first. at any f3, as long as I have my track, or fake that I do, I vote first.

odds of town winning skyrocket.

also 'since the first two scum died'... the second scum died last gameday and I may have said 100 times already that I don't know who the other one is.

you pushing a lot of stupid shit is making me feel good about my vote though.

[Toranaga]

@chip butty

if you're town, can you at least once not be the honorary scum player? stop voting me for petty shit. yes we don't like each other, I think you're a retard and you think I'm a loser. just get over with that bullshit already and play well instead. game isn't personal. stop being a fucking tool and do the right thing for once.

[Toranaga]

also if anyone think above is moddable, just ISO chip butty

[Chip Butty]

@chip butty

if you're town, can you at least once not be the honorary scum player? stop voting me for petty shit. yes we don't like each other, I think you're a retard and you think I'm a loser. just get over with that bullshit already and play well instead. game isn't personal. stop being a fucking tool and do the right thing for once.

I never vote for personal reasons. I'm voting you because 1. I think you have a higher probability of being scum than anyone else, though Taco is also not a bad candidate, and 2. It's the correct play here.

If you are really a town tracker then if you don't get lynched today, scum 99% has to kill you tonight. The other 1% is if they try to frame you, and that would be WIFOMy as fuck, as HF pointed out, and i don't want us to go there. A) you are almost certainly not going into d6, so as town why put this colossal effort into not getting lynched? B) your nk will be very low info. C) we don't lose anything by not getting your track result, because 99% you don't get to deliver it, and 1% we couldn't trust it if you did, because WIFOM.

If we lynch you and it doesn't end the game, we force scum to either refrain from an nk in the hope we mislynch again or, more likely, make an nk that is more informational than yours would be.

[Toranaga]

LOL why am I trying to not get lynched since I'm dying at night anyways???????

why lynch me since I'm dying at night? who cares about WIFOM at f3 if the other option is 3 unconfirmed players? do you understand what you're talking about here?

[Chip Butty]

LOL why am I trying to not get lynched since I'm dying at night anyways???????

why lynch me since I'm dying at night? who cares about WIFOM at f3 if the other option is 3 unconfirmed players? do you understand what you're talking about here?

Sure do, and since there is no further info to come out today, my vote is locked in.

[Toranaga]

no you don't

[Chip Butty]

LOL why am I trying to not get lynched since I'm dying at night anyways???????

It's not that town.you is trying not to get lynched. I'd expect that. It's that you are making such a colossal effort, as if EVERYTHING rides on you not getting lynched. Which, if you're town, it doesn't. Actually, there are similarities between your play here, and Mulch's scum play.

[Toranaga]

eh I'm just playing the game like normal

solving is all I'm doing, I'm not screaming to anyone not to get me lynched or whatever. I put myself in L-1 and asked you to lynch me when my mind wasn't into it even. IDK how you're reading me doing a colossal effort to not get lynched...

it's frustrating not to be able to figure this out but as far as f5 behaviour goes, I am more suspicious of fitz than anyone else. as far as self preservation he is the one doing the most of it + once I voted him I think he got really scummy.

you do you sure, but if you're town you're failing hard and you're really bad at reading motivations.

[Chip Butty]

Yeah, that's great. What part of 'locked in' do you want me to explain to you?

Wanna turn on me again now? I've lost track of whose turn it is for you to lockscum.

[Thor665]

I don't get the objective logic of lynching him before me

I suspect him more. Is that objective enough for you?

That;s an answer, but I still don't really get excited by the logic that has the two of us as your top scumspects and it doesn't make a lot of sense.
The logic that clears any of the other guys functionally could apply to Tor and myself also - and we also have the benefit of leading better anti-scum pushes on top of it.

Your suspicions feel like you came in and saw Tor and me having our paranoia of each other - and then decided to run with both cases without noting that both were paranoia based cases.

[havingfitz]

Thor. I'm not scum.

Hypothetically speaking...if Tor is today's lynch and flips town....and you and I were to both make final 3....I would not start the day instantly voting you. I would do due diligence on both remaining possibilities.

Do you buy Tor's claims?
Do you know see the points I've made towards him?
Are you tr'ing him?

[Thor665]

1. I do buy Tor's claims in a general sense, and also have noted my own thoughts on why he seems generally less likely scum.
2. I've seen you make lylo based points, which I'll agree are true, but which functionally apply to everyone at this stage. I have not seen a particularly telling point that applies to him, and him alone.
3. Mildly - yes.

[havingfitz]

if I'm tracker, I have 66% chance of getting my vote 100% right if I'm not tracker, I might wanna fake that anyway that isn't the same as 3 players in a f3 where town can vote town first. at any f3, as long as I have my track, or fake that I do, I vote first.

odds of town winning skyrocket.

If you ARE the tracker that is true. If you make it to tomorrow and your “track” survives to f3 (66% chance), Odds town wins are 50%. That’s still worse odds than the 100% mislynch you and Thor are voting right now.

And why give the option of “if I’m not tracker?” Or faking a track? Why is that a consideration you would even put out there for town to entertain? smh…

And what does anyone voting first have to do with anything? It doesn’t. Town and scum can equally vote first in LYLO. A stupid point from someone who likes to discredit the points of others. If you are town you admit you do not know who the last scum is (as proven by your current vote) and if you were to survive to f3…there would be no reason for the other remaining town to believe anything you say as you are not confirmed in any way.

also 'since the first two scum died'... the second scum died last gameday and I may have said 100 times already that I don't know who the other one is.

Your current vote proves this….or that you are scum. Neither of which is an appealing f3 participant.

you pushing a lot of stupid shit is making me feel good about my vote though.

Something scum would say.

My reads have been the same all of this day whereas you have gone from town reading me and clearing me to me being your strongest suspect amongst the pool of players you don’t know who is scum in. Convincing. Push whatever wagon isn’t you. Something no one else alive has done this day I might add.

LOL why am I trying to not get lynched since I'm dying at night anyways???????

why lynch me since I'm dying at night? who cares about WIFOM at f3 if the other option is 3 unconfirmed players? do you understand what you're talking about here?

In the first quote above you lobby for your survival today based on the fact you will bring certain benefits to alive in f3. Yet here you AtE that you are dying tonight anyway.

If it’s such a sure thing you are dying tonight…then why keep you?

Why would scum me give a fcuk about you surviving today when I could have easily hammered Thor and killed you tonight as you say? Resulting in a Chip-Taco-HF f3. Which would be much more appealing than any f3 scenario that has me and Thor alive in it given his read on me. Scum me has no reason to go to f3 with Thor.

And despite your exclamations…if you are town and survive today there is no guarantee you are lynched tonight. Which you seem to believe based on the first quote.

it's frustrating not to be able to figure this out but as far as f5 behaviour goes, I am more suspicious of fitz than anyone else. as far as self preservation he is the one doing the most of it + once I voted him I think he got really scummy.

Poor Tor…can’t figure shit out. Read me town this entire day (despite me being the person he suspects most?) and voted me before I started getting scummy.

Makes perfect opportunistic scum sense.

I don't get the objective logic of lynching him before me

I suspect him more. Is that objective enough for you?

That;s an answer, but I still don't really get excited by the logic that has the two of us as your top scumspects and it doesn't make a lot of sense.

The logic that clears any of the other guys functionally could apply to Tor and myself also - and we also have the benefit of leading better anti-scum pushes on top of it.

Your suspicions feel like you came in and saw Tor and me having our paranoia of each other - and then decided to run with both cases without noting that both were paranoia based cases.

What happened to your firm belief Taco is scum? How has his play today changed your mind on that because that seems to have been where your head was yesterday and at the beginning of today.

Whereas now you see a win being assured with a me lynch followed by a Tor lynch. If I am mislynched today (I am town btw) why would you assume Tor was here tomorrow TO lynch? smh…. Apparently you are not in the Tor is the guaranteed NK camp that Tor is spouting.

1. I do buy Tor's claims in a general sense, and also have noted my own thoughts on why he seems generally less likely scum.

2. I've seen you make lylo based points, which I'll agree are true, but which functionally apply to everyone at this stage. I have not seen a particularly telling point that applies to him, and him alone.

3. Mildly - yes.

1. If Tor’s less likely scum…why is he your forecast lynch for tomorrow if/when I am mislynched?

2. We agree…I speak the truth.

3. So mildly townreading = 2nd most suspect player in the game FYPOV?