Mini Normal 1951 [Game Over]

[reaverb]

Hi.

I have only skimmed the thread and looked at all the vote counts.

Right now I think Tchill and Micheal22Omega are scummy and WhyMafia is Towny, with Tacos + Sub4hire also Town if Tchill flips scum (although Sub4hire anti-alignment is weak).

[reaverb]

Vote Count 1.23

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Assemblerotws

(6):

acidphoenix (reaverb slot), Alisae

,

Toranaga (M22O slot),

UC Voyager

,

Sergtacos, Tchill13

[L-1]

Derpy Hooves(4):Boonskiies, WhyMafia, Dunkerdoodles, Assemblertows

[L-3]

Klazam (1):Sub4hire

[L-6]

Not voting (2): Derpy Hooves, Klazam

[/color]

Countdown: (expired on 2017-10-15 15:30:30)

This strongly implies M22O is scum, I could only see an alternative if tacos is scum, which M22O himself has claimed is not the case. (PS if you're not comfortable reading me as Town note the main reason to read M22O scum are the townies directly adjacent to him)

I also did not like the way Toranaga posted about things from forever ago in the thread, it's something I've seen a lot more from scum than Town.

Sorry if I seem disorganized, I haven't read the full thread yet. I'll read everything and post a coherent reads list Saturday.

Also when I did my votal analysis I editted a text document in place instead of writing out my chain of logic, which was dumb. I'll re-do it and post it Saturday or Sunday.

Can somebody give mod-gaming on how many prs there are? My first impression is that somebody must be lying in the claims this Day phase but I'm not familiar with mafiascum meta and have heard setups are more townsided here.

[reaverb]

The way Micheal22Omega / Porkens did the claim thing felt totally unnatural. I think it's almost impossible for M22O to be scum without Porkens, "Oh I forgot I wasn't VT" feels too convenient.

Anything rule out M22O / Porkens (r. Derpy) / Tchills as the team? That was one of only two teams left at the end of my most aggressive (has most assumptions) votal analysis. (other team replaced Porkens w/Boonskiies)

[reaverb]

I'lll give actual details this weekend, because like I said I didn't actually record my thought process (which was dumb).

But my assumptions sheet has you marked as "Never scum with Porkens or taco"

[reaverb]

@Boonskiies

Have you told WhyMafia who the Day Organizer is?

[reaverb]

Let me talk a bit more about claims:

Flipped:

Innocent Child
Jailkeeper

Claimed:
2-shot Commuter
2-shot Neapolitan

Claimed to exist but hasn't been outed:
Day Organizer

Additionally, Assemblerotws died last Night. The chances of this being a scum shot are near nil, since no sane scumteam would shoot an 11-poster. Thus, there must be some town pr which shot Assemble.

That is 6 town prs. That is utterly absurd in a 13-man game, if there was a massclaim D1 they would have near townfirm overrun right there, needing to decide on a single correct townread to win, and there are 3 roles that can possibly block or gain a kill. Either somebody is lying, or Day Organizer is bizarre mixup scum role (I have seen scum neighborizors before).

[reaverb]

Why did you quote this vote count specifically? like I'm pretty sure if you scroll through the day you'll find tones of vote counts and obviously town voted town. What's the point of his one specifically? just to give evidence I'm scum?

You don't appear to understand votal analysis.

Any L-1 wagon on a townie, but particularly the one quoted in context of it being a Porkens-Derpy-slot counterwagon, has a negligible chance of lacking scum in slots 2-5. Scum would have to be content to sit by while over half of Town mis-wagons a townie. If Prokens is scum, scum would be jumping at the chance to jump to Amman, or if scum are remotely afraid of town jumping onto a scum if the Amman push fails, or if scum are looking to move their votes and the other options look bad, etc.

Other votals have information, but they're less strong because less players on them have flipped, and mostly imply things like "At least one of X or Y is Town", which is not very actionable.

[reaverb]

Anyway let's talk more about the claims:

I looked over the last few completed Minis, and the setups seem to have around 4 "normal" town prs as the max. I found a couple which have 5 town prs, but there's always a catch - normally a couple of the town prs in the 5 town prs are somehow negative utility for Town. Examples: Odd and Even Night Role cops when when of the Mafia was a Weak Doctor, Town Daychat Enabler Neighbor (Neighbor is also more like half a pr, given it's very often Mafia).

None of the claims given are like that. All of them are un-ambiguously pro-Town, no wiggle room to subvert Town expectations and have it be negative utility. Neapolitan, Commuter, Vig, Innocent Child, Jailkeeper, Organzier-role are all clearly +EV Town roles with no possible subversions (except the possibility of the Organizer being scum).

Since the Vig is mechanically known to exist and two others have flipped, I'm pretty sure that at least 2/3 of {Porkens, M22O, Organizer} are scum (assuming Organizer exists, not completely unconvinced that Boonskiies is 1-shot Mafia Neighborer and lying like mad). I think the Organizer should claim or be outed by Why or Boon asap to help us sort through those 3.

I am pretty sure Porkens is one of the scum there, the scenarios where M22O is Scum and Porkens is Town are really weird. I don't see M22O intentionally creating a 1 in 2 with Town!Porkens, so I think the situation it's remotely possible is if scum rolecop'd Porkens N2, which is unlikely as a prior.

[reaverb]

I am pretty sure Porkens is one of the scum there, the scenarios where M22O is Scum and Porkens is Town are really weird. I don't see M22O intentionally creating a 1 in 2 with Town!Porkens, so I think the

only

situation it's remotely possible is if scum rolecop'd Porkens N2, which is unlikely as a prior.

Edit by way of post.

[reaverb]

Sorry everybody.

As you can see in the Review thread, I was on M22O most of the Night, only to move it in the last couple hours.

I shot Taco because I was tunneling on 2 out of 3 of {M22O, Taco, Porkens} having to be scum. I looked at Boon/Porkens/M22O team, but that had some really big oddities.

I also thought this post:

And you and Boon have a chat together too.

I'm also talking with someone else as well.

made no sense from my perceptive, I didn't even consider it being a Day activation because I haven't ever played with them before (except things like IC or Daykill that are public)

It would have been nice if Boon/M22O were scumfirmed but after Porkens walking back their claim and Assemble 11-posting my definition of "scumfirm" was out the window. Quickhammer was a nice play there, congrats Boon/M22O.

[reaverb]

Also: If Town executes mechanics right, this setup is not balanced, even as a closed setup.

Given the hypothesis is clearly not true, not sure about the conclusion.

[reaverb]

I can't believe two different Townies forgot they are prs, wow.

This game was more lost by Town than won by scum but given the setup I don't think that diminishes the scum victory.

[reaverb]

Side note: I love vigilantes but I really think they should always be novice and limited to just 1 or 2 shots.

What is the Novice Vigilante mechanic?

[reaverb]

advice would be really appreciated.

The best way to get good at mafia is to play with other players who are good at mafia or at least care a lot about the game. I'd look for games where the standard of play is higher (MafiaUniverse comes to mind, although I haven't actually played that many games there.)

[reaverb]

Also: If Town executes mechanics right, this setup is not balanced, even as a closed setup.

Nope!

Curious how you think Town should play with mechanics/claiming.

[reaverb]

mastina I feel like we didn't have enough power to counter power role but since it's mafia scum seeing how people play here it's not that hard to trick town

Scum do not, I repeat, do NOT need a counter to every town power role.
Towns need power roles to win. Because mountainous games are hilariously, hilariously scumsided.
....

I think you would find it interesting to play a game on a site where the "game is townsided" players are coming from. MafiaUniverse has been mentioned a couple times, mtgssalvation forums are a site that has similar day lengths to mafiascum that seems to have a similar town winrate to MU from what I've seen.

Generally, Townies are much better at catching scum just on post/words than this one was. I don't have any numbers but this game you'll notice in this game every NK was based on somebody having a power role that cleared them. On other sites that's a lot less common - normally the first couple NKs are players who simply became obviously Townies that Town was never going to lynch through their posts. Even going into endgame this game, no player was off the table for lynching here.

I also disagree with your evaluation for some of Town's power roles. As the simplest example, I think that adding 1 town pr and 1 scum pr is town-sided - for example, the mafia ninja existed only as a counter to the Town Watcher, yet Town Watcher was still (theoretically) able to help Town.