Mini Normal 1952: Dragon's Dance [OVER - PERFECT SCUM WIN]

Tchill13 · Post Post #1300 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:17 pm

In post 1296, Tchill13 wrote:
In post 1291, acidphoenix wrote:nevermind was going to reread but gamestate makes it unnecessary >_>

repeat:
quick still flips town 99.99%
uzi is probably never boons partner and has good town equity anyway
lalendra just towny
chill miller claim is probably a town claim but otherwise he's in the not townie pile
schadd townieish but also he only has 20 posts
havo/egg go here
tsq very very much not townie
boon not townie and gamestate(read: the fact that if he is in fact town he has ceased trying to actually figure out my alignment, despite a logic-based case where all of his reasons, except the one he didnt know about and the one he said I can't call what it is, are godawful, and the entire rest of the game, except tsq and quick, is essentially going "oh hey I never liked acid and I see a person going confidently after him! without actually giving a shit about the actual case)
You also state TSQ isn't townie at all then use him as one of the only ppl reacting properly from your pov?

acidphoenix · Post Post #1301 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:19 pm

In post 1297, acidphoenix wrote:if playing correctly was related to alignment I could play games with Robb in them

acidphoenix · Post Post #1302 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:20 pm

was my answer to that question lol

Egg · Post Post #1303 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:04 pm

Lalendra wrote:Regardless of whether Mumble flips scum or town (even if I think it will be scum), we will get a lot more information from the flip and be able to start making some more informed decisions once we're out of D1 circlejerk.

Just noting that this was said so some kind of follow up hopefully happened after the flip. Otherwise it feels like justifying a mislynch before it happens.

Page 39 vote count:
Mumble(6): Lalendra, Errantparabola, Tchill13, Boonskiies, Havo, Sergtacos (L-1)
LicketyQuickety(3): Thestatusquo, Egg, Lil Uzi Vert, (L-4)

Again, two dead townies on Mumble. Lalendra and Tchill are still there. Boon and Havo have jumped on. First instinct is to say scum in Boon/Havo, but that would mean the wagon I looked at earlier is all town or two scum are on the wagon. Two scum is possible, but like I mentioned before if Lickety is town, scum don't care who is lynched. So that looks like maybe Lalendra/acid/schadd or Lickety/Lalendra/Havo (I town read Boon). Lalendra is the common name there. Another thing I want to note is that Lickety never voted Mumble. I almost feel like desperate scum at some point would realize it was one or the other and place that vote late on the wagon. Lickety feels like town who was town reading Mumble here. So that Lalendra/acid/schadd pool is looking good to me. I feel like I should add havo to that pool because that Mumble vote still makes sense from scum regardless of Lickety's alignment. Shea's hammer looks fine by the way. Day was basically over, he had mumble in his scum pool, and he gave 12 hours notice. I'm interested to see how the mumble and taco flips affect his reads though.

Lalendra wrote:Mumble, my sincere apologies if we were wrong about you.

Did this feel weird to anyone else?

So that's Day 1. End of day reads...Town-[Boon, Shea, Tchill]....Null/on fence-[Lil, Lickety, Havo].....Scum pool-[Lalendra, acidphoenix, schadd]

Acid wrote:also more importantly

dumb assumptions like that are why half decent scumteams will consider specifically throwing off that assumptions

I've totally killed the only town not voting d1 for the explicit reason that both scum were off wagon (in newbies)

You're not wrong but I've played a ton of mafia and have only seen scum stay off of a Day 1 mislynch a handful of times.

Tchill wrote:only reason i don't want to call egg obv town is because i feel like he's the only one making an effort to LOOK towny in this game.

I mean there's value in looking town as town because getting mislynched does hurt your team. But I'd argue that I've put more effort in keeping up with the pace of the game and getting reads than I have in looking town so I'm not really sure where that comes from unless maybe it's just the size of my posts like acid said which, again, comes from catching up all the time.

Tchill wrote:which would mean uzi is continually skating by while even though schadd hasn't posted much it's not like schadd is making a consistent effort to skate by.

I've had trouble reading Lil, but I wouldn't say he's skating by.

Lil wrote:Yeah I’m not a fan of vigilantes shooting players based on policy. Simply getting the majority to request for a player to be replaced is always better.

I like the shot. He had a reasonable chance of being scum and wasn't helping us as town. It's not policy if the shot came from someone who was even slightly leaning scum. I actually can't think of a better shot. But does it actually matter after the fact if it was the right shot or not?

Lil wrote:Hard claiming miller doesn’t make you confirmed town

It doesn't but he stuck to his guns when Boon started changing the details of his "result".

Lickety wrote:The Lynch is going to be between me an Uzi today. Is that ok with everyone?

If you'd asked me Day 1, I'd have said sure because I wanted to lynch you anyway. But now, no.

I'm through 44. Gonna watch the end of the football game. Might get back to this if my wife isn't home from work yet. If she is, sorry but she takes priority over mafia.

Boonskiies · Post Post #1304 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:09 pm

I didn’t change the details of my result. I never officially gave. I hinted I might be loyal, but that wasn’t the case.

Egg · Post Post #1305 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:52 pm

Maybe change is the wrong word, but this is what I was talking about:

In post 1035, Boonskiies wrote:I’m a role cop. You want to change that Miller claim and play it off as a joke? I’ll allow that.

In post 1036, Tchill13 wrote:nope. i'm a miller.

When you went from "might be loyal", implying you got a "no result", to role cop after he claimed miller, scum tchill would probably go "oh fuck" and say something stupid. I like him sticking to miller after that. I mean obviously he's not gonna go "um, lol yeah I was joking" but some kind of "oh yeah here's the result you probably got but I'm miller too" or something that covers all bases. It's not 100% because he knows you are a reaction tester and may have assumed you were bluffing, but there's always the chance you actually had a result so it's risky to lie and get a 1v1 if he's scum.

Anyway, football is over so back to reading. Not sure how far I'll get. I think I have about half an hour though.

Transcend · Post Post #1306 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:54 pm

Hello! Nice doggo here to offer a VC. Let me know if there's an error!

Vote Count 2.2

LicketyQuickety(1):

Lil Uzi Vert

Lil Uzi Vert(1):

LicketyQuickety

Boonskiies(1):

acidphoenix

acidphoenix(2):

Tchill13, Boonskiies

Nobody(5)

: Lalendra, schadd_, Thestatusquo, Havo, Egg

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch!
Day 2 ends in (expired on 2017-11-04 11:00:00)

Egg · Post Post #1307 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:37 pm

Lickety wrote:Town should always have some doubt.

Lil laughed this off but yeah when someone isn't confirmed, I don't see how you can have no doubt. No one is that good.

Havo wrote:This is my first game with you, and I'm gonna have a really hard time sorting your slot.

I firmly believe in Lynch all Liars as town, period. And your play style as town obviously is to lie several times a game.

I don't get this. If you firmly believed in lynch all liars "period" and saw Boon as someone who has lied several times, why are you not voting him? Not that I think he should be voted, but this feels inconsistent.

Havo wrote:I believe EP was pretty much universally TR, that's why scum killed him.

Probably.

________________

I'm reading Boon vs Acid, but I don't have much to say other than that I side with Boon so it didn't change my reads at all.

Lickety wrote:If Chills claim is true, we know there is a Cop in the game. This is obvious but it hasn't been said yet.

Why does it need to be said? The only reason to need to know this is if someone is scum who is power role hunting. Pointing it out helps scum but doesn't help town.

Lalendra wrote:PL wagons are NAI, as far as I'm concerned. Though there may be some scum who would hop on at the end, it's even easier to do this as scum when it's a PL than when it's a wagon with legitimate reasoning. What did YOU glean from the wagon?

Didn't like everyone on the wagon at some point say they were scumreading him? I don't think it was a policy lynch. It was people misreading poor play as scum play.

Acid wrote:nevermind was going to reread but gamestate makes it unnecessary

It does? Why?

Tchill wrote:Not sure if this is just random timing for Lalendra to post this right before egg pointed that out but i'm not crazy about lalendra stating her vote was half PL/ half scum vibes.

Yeah... The pre-flip reaction to the hammer was bad too (apologizing in case of being wrong). The fact that she was ok with lynching either mumble or lickety. And now that Acid's name has come up so much, she likes that too. She's either very impressionable or scum looking to just agree to every lynch. If it's the second option, that makes Acid probably town. *sigh*

___________________

I'm caught up and plan on doing real stuff here tomorrow. In the mean time:

Vote Schadd

Can we make this a wagon?

Lil Uzi Vert · Post Post #1308 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:20 pm

I honestly don’t think I’m being arrogant Egg. There is just a clear difference between being confident with a good foundation for said confidence and being confident because you guessed 2 out of 3 scum in your last game and you don't care if your arguments aren't sound. I believe I’m coming from the former.

What do you think of Schadd admitting to essentially active lurking just now? I’m having trouble seeing scum being a bit bold there.

Egg · Post Post #1309 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:26 pm

I see where you are coming from but it's also the kind of thing I would say as scum to get people to town read me so I shrugged it off as non info even though it stood out when I saw it.

Tchill13 · Post Post #1310 (ISO) » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:33 pm

so i definitely want schadd to participate more. Not cool with him sliding through as the day phases go on but i like my acid vote.

ISO · Post Post #1311 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:34 am

Egg, perhaps I missed it but why are you not voting acid?

Lalendra · Post Post #1312 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:36 am

In post 1295, Tchill13 wrote:so egg pointed out 2 dead townies were on the mumbles wagon when i quoted it. Not counting those players it's just me and Lalendra. Not sure if this is just random timing for Lalendra to post this right before egg pointed that out but i'm not crazy about lalendra stating her vote was half PL/ half scum vibes.

If you look back at my ISO you'll see that I stated both of those reasons for lynching him. My story didn't change.

In post 1303, Egg wrote:
Lalendra wrote:Regardless of whether Mumble flips scum or town (even if I think it will be scum), we will get a lot more information from the flip and be able to start making some more informed decisions once we're out of D1 circlejerk.
Just noting that this was said so some kind of follow up hopefully happened after the flip. Otherwise it feels like justifying a mislynch before it happens.

It's me admitting that I had some doubt about whether he was scum or not, because while I scumread him, I'm not confident enough in my reads to say that he is definitely scum, as opposed to just apathetic/bad townie.

In post 1303, Egg wrote:
Lalendra wrote:Mumble, my sincere apologies if we were wrong about you.
Did this feel weird to anyone else?

It shouldn't, it was sincere. Being a mislynch sucks, regardless of how scummy/bad your play might have been, and he reacted emotionally to the pushing a few times, so I felt the apology, in the case of a ML, was warranted. Because

Lickety wrote:Town should always have some doubt.

In post 1303, Egg wrote:I like the shot. He had a reasonable chance of being scum and wasn't helping us as town. It's not policy if the shot came from someone who was even slightly leaning scum. I actually can't think of a better shot. But does it actually matter after the fact if it was the right shot or not?

I was 100% okay with the shot because even though he was town, he was doing nothing to help the gamestate. He was a warm body that favored our numbers, yes, but ultimately was more of a liability than anything, just like Mumble.

In post 1303, Egg wrote:
Lil wrote:Hard claiming miller doesn’t make you confirmed town
It doesn't but he stuck to his guns when Boon started changing the details of his "result".

In post 1305, Egg wrote:scum tchill would probably go "oh fuck" and say something stupid. I like him sticking to miller after that.

Agreed, Chill's reaction in the face of Boon's test was what cemented the TR for me.

Lalendra · Post Post #1313 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:37 am

In post 1307, Egg wrote:She's either very impressionable or scum looking to just agree to every lynch.

I'd like to think that I'd play better than that as scum.

VOTE: Schadd

Lalendra · Post Post #1314 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:43 am

My thought process currently is this: Mumble, EP and Taco are obviously conftown. Chill is as good as conftown for me. I'm leaning town on boon, havo, LQ and Luv, and don't yet know how I feel about acid, egg or TSQ. That leaves Schadd as the only reasonable vote for me, and unless the pressure generates more content that helps my SR subside, I'm fine with leaving it there. Obviously since we haven't caught any scum yet, at least two of my townlean/null reads are wrong, so I'm hoping I'm right about schadd.

Egg · Post Post #1315 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:31 am

In post 1311, Thestatusquo wrote:Egg, perhaps I missed it but why are you not voting acid?

Because I want to vote Schadd right now.

Lalendra wrote:It's me admitting that I had some doubt about whether he was scum or not, because while I scumread him, I'm not confident enough in my reads to say that he is definitely scum, as opposed to just apathetic/bad townie.

Ok, but usually when you say a flip will give info, you start the next day by sorting through that info. Not by saying it was a policy lynch and there is no info to get from it.

Lalendra wrote:It shouldn't, it was sincere. Being a mislynch sucks, regardless of how scummy/bad your play might have been, and he reacted emotionally to the pushing a few times, so I felt the apology, in the case of a ML, was warranted. Because

Yeah, townies should have doubt. But my first thought when the lynch I want goes through isn't "sorry if I'm wrong". It's "I hope I was right". So it felt weird. Like it wasn't doubt, but knowledge that he was town and you felt bad for putting him through that.

Lalendra wrote:I'd like to think that I'd play better than that as scum.

But not as town? Because what I said isn't good play for town either. It really does feel like you just agree to every wagon. I went back and looked and maybe you aren't quite as on board with Acid today as it felt like initially though. But still, you don't seem to oppose it. Or really any wagon that comes up. I mean, maybe havo? The way you were ok with both major wagons yesterday though was in the back of my mind and mumble's town flip combined with my new town read on Lickety has pushed it towards the front.

Tchill13 · Post Post #1316 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:37 am

I'm still leaning town on lalendra. While her method of getting to her reads maybe questionable her actual reads are in the same ball park as mine. Egg seems to be putting a lot of pressure on lalendra without actually voting her.

Tchill13 · Post Post #1317 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:37 am

Schadd what do you think of boon v acid and egg v lalendra.

Egg · Post Post #1318 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:24 am

In post 1316, Tchill13 wrote:I'm still leaning town on lalendra. While her method of getting to her reads maybe questionable her actual reads are in the same ball park as mine. Egg seems to be putting a lot of pressure on lalendra without actually voting her.

Can I only have one scum read now?

ISO · Post Post #1319 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:31 am

I think what hes saying, and what I am confused by as well, is that you seem to be devoting a lot of your attention to explaining why Lalendra is scum while voting schadd while not doing all that much to pressure schadd/explain your vote.

Its certainly an interesting thing to look at if you or lalendra ever flip scum.

Lalendra · Post Post #1320 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:36 am

In post 1315, Egg wrote:But not as town? Because what I said isn't good play for town either. It really does feel like you just agree to every wagon. I went back and looked and maybe you aren't quite as on board with Acid today as it felt like initially though. But still, you don't seem to oppose it. Or really any wagon that comes up. I mean, maybe havo? The way you were ok with both major wagons yesterday though was in the back of my mind and mumble's town flip combined with my new town read on Lickety has pushed it towards the front.

I wouldn't be on board with a havo wagon, at present. I'm having a really tough time sorting Acid so I would be more open to swinging either way on that one. It was a coincidence yesterday that I felt that LQ and Mumble were both scummy, but my view on LQ has since changed. Though he pushed me a lot, his points made sense, and I get an overall town vibe from his play.

Lalendra · Post Post #1321 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:38 am

In post 1315, Egg wrote:Yeah, townies should have doubt. But my first thought when the lynch I want goes through isn't "sorry if I'm wrong". It's "I hope I was right". So it felt weird. Like it wasn't doubt, but knowledge that he was town and you felt bad for putting him through that.

I see your point. I just know that I have been on the frustrated end of a ML in the past, so before the day ended and the thread was locked, I wanted to pre-emptively apologize if I was wrong about him. Maybe that's just my self-doubt but my reaction to a lynch going through, even if I'm on it, is always "oh shit, I hope we're right, because if we're not we're DICKS"

Boonskiies · Post Post #1322 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:19 am

If Egg is scum, he's doing a good job making it seem like he isn't to me. I expect him to be able to do that if he's scum, but it's working right now. I'm lean town with an asterisk.

Egg · Post Post #1323 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:39 am

In post 1319, Thestatusquo wrote:I think what hes saying, and what I am confused by as well, is that you seem to be devoting a lot of your attention to explaining why Lalendra is scum while voting schadd while not doing all that much to pressure schadd/explain your vote.

Its certainly an interesting thing to look at if you or lalendra ever flip scum.

That has more to do with Lalendra's activity vs Schadd's than it does with my own views. I can't exactly have a back and forth with Schadd in less than a 24 hour period like I have been with Lalendra. Kind of thought the vote might draw him out considering he admitted he's paying attention but it really hasn't... I'm also not entirely convinced on Lalendra yet, so I want things clarified. Depending on what specifically you look at, things point to her making perfect sense as scum (her willingness to join most any wagon for example) while other things look really genuine (believing she was the biggest proponent of the mumble wagon is one example). She also kind of reminds me of someone I know very well (xofelf) but tend to always scum read because she understands the game very well but doesn't tend to formulate her own thoughts even as town. So Lalendra is someone I feel I need to interact with to read better. The same is true with Schadd but he just doesn't give me as much to work with. You also asked me about Acid before, and as I said before I do scum read him. I'll probably be fine with switching my vote there later in the day. I just wanted to see if Schadd would come out of hiding if I could get a wagon going on him.

Lalendra wrote:I wouldn't be on board with a havo wagon, at present. I'm having a really tough time sorting Acid so I would be more open to swinging either way on that one. It was a coincidence yesterday that I felt that LQ and Mumble were both scummy, but my view on LQ has since changed. Though he pushed me a lot, his points made sense, and I get an overall town vibe from his play.

See, this is where I'm just not sure what to think. Your thoughts on Lickety mirror my own so I can understand the process obviously. But you seem to be keeping thoughts on Acid close to your chest. You say you are on the fence. Why is that? What are you doing to try to change that? It almost seems to me that you want to wait and see if he's gonna be one of today's wagons before deciding.

Egg · Post Post #1324 (ISO) » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:25 am

I did the EP ISO thing, but I don't feel like it means a ton. It took some work so I don't really want to just get rid of it. It will be here spoilered. Consider it an info dump that I might come back to later. Biggest take away is that if the following were scum, EP made perfect sense as a kill [schadd, shea, havo], if the following were scum the EP kill was ok for them [lil, boon, acid], and if the following were scum they probably wouldn't have suggested an EP kill [tchill, lalendra, lickety]. The problem is this far from clears that last group because they could have buddies in the other groups or could have just killed EP for looking town. All it does is slightly implicate the first group.

Spoiler: EP stuff