Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win
- DeasVail
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Yeah! It’s great to be playing with you again.
VOTE: Elmo TeH AzN- DeasVail
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It seems pretty usual to me that people exaggerate the significance of their thoughts early game in order to actually have something to talk about. Is that your experience too?In post 33, IceGuy wrote:Are people seriously basing a scumread on two posts, one of which is RVS?- DeasVail
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You’re saying words but also not saying anything...In post 42, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
way different from scum enterance in dat one shitty micro i played with kelbrisIn post 40, kelbris wrote:I don't think IceGuy is bad tbh. Looking at his posts so far, we have an RVS post, one that is advising someone else to NOT get the mod to confirm their IC role (a good idea tbh, since that would make the IC an easy target for maf) and one (which I agree with) saying that others are basically using 2 posts for their reads, neither of which are scum-posts.
I don't know if Transcend has been IC before, but it is possible that IceGuy was telling him just in case, lots of posts does not equal experience as roles such as IC, not voting for them yet because of the IC claim, it might be accurate, then again, I have never been in a game with that role before so idk.
I don't have any other reads right now, so I am going to
UNVOTE:
for now.
but micro and normal are dif- DeasVail
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I’ve looked over kelbris’s posts again and I can’t actually work out why I townread him. Maybe it was ~the vibe~. It’s weird because I remember thinking he was my strongest townread, which is why I put him first in my list. I’ll let you know if I work it out.
I was worried about mutant after skimming his big post, but on reread I still think he is town.
Transcend is still a townread, but I’m still interested in an answer to my posts.- DeasVail
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!!!!!!!!
I’m on phone and don’t have much time so I’m not going to bother with vote tags, but I would be voting Elmo right now.
The timing of his mutant vote and suspicion is very suspect.
- Mutant gains suspicion for his long reads post
- Suspicion on Mutant is then on the verge of dying down.
- Elmo makes a post pushing the same thing as other people were earlier, Except it’s sort of outdated and Mutant is really looking quite town imo now. THEN there’s the post about it not being because he necessarily thinks the post is from scum which really screams of not committing himself to the stance. If he thinks mutants post was useless but not scum my, why vote for Mutant? Especially considering the issue has already been discussed and he’s already received “pressure” for it, so that can’t be the reason.
Also Ice why are you voting for Luca?- DeasVail
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oops I forgot that I was already voting for Elmo. Well there you go!
And Transcend,
I would still appreciate an explanation of this.In post 61, Transcend wrote:Town reading me makes me think you're informed lol- DeasVail
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Strong suspicion of Transcend for not waiting for a claim, regardless of Elmo's alignment. You could use the argument that it's too ballsy for scum to do, but that is what a player like Transcend is going to bank on. Maybe it's pointless me saying this and I'll just get ignored, but it's worth trying at least.
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I assumed transcend was going for a reaction from Elmo. Unlikely to yield anything too useful imo, but I’ve always wondered if scum would ever try to fake a townslip in that situation.In post 178, sheepsaysmeep wrote:he was already on the wagon lol- DeasVail
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UNVOTE: IceGuy
Why shouldn't we?
(Also sorry for getting your pronoun wrong previously)
Also, current lynch pool for me (in order of appearance on the playerlist):
Yuria
Fishy
Elmo
kelbris
Viome
Everyone else I either think is town or don't want to lynch for some other reason. I'm also not sold on the Ectomancer suspicion.- DeasVail
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12: I remember thinking that I might RVS this as it seemed slightly over-explanatory, but overall not that significant.In post 228, Luca Blight wrote:Deas, you said earlier in the game you were 'very torn' on IceGuy and I see you've now unvoted and excluded him from your lynch pool.
Can you walk me through your read progression of IceGuy so far?
I became more concerned at 33, as I was pretty sure it was a usual thing for people to exaggerate "scumreads" in early game and so it seemed overly defensive. 48 had a similar vibe, as I didn't get that impression from Ectomancer at all.
However, I then liked his approach to mutant. He expressed suspicion of mutant's reads list but also took initiative in working out whether this was something alignment-indicative for mutant or not (a step beyond the other players in the game from memory)
Since then, I think his approach to the Elmo wagon has been fairly town, as was his suspicion of me followed by unvote.
He is a townread for me at this point in time.
Elmo is the only person I explicitly have a scumread on (I am still of this opinion, as well, fwiw).In post 229, IceGuy wrote:
Would you mind explaining why those people are in your lynch pool?In post 225, DeasVail wrote: Also, current lynch pool for me (in order of appearance on the playerlist):
Yuria
Fishy
Elmo
kelbris
Viome
The other four stand out to me as people that have not made much of an impression. I explicitly do not read them as town, nor do I have another good reason for keeping them around. (E.g. I'm not sure about my read on havingfitz but I have played with him before and expect that I will have a better idea as the game goes on. Luca is someone that is very pro-town, but I haven't formed a solid opinion on his actual alignment yet. However, I would be unlikely to lynch him as I feel that his alignment will become obvious with time).- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
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By pro-town I mean things like good activity and engagement with the game, making pushes, asking questions of people, 'scumhunting' (or at least the appearance of it), that sort of thing. It makes up a part of my reads but not all of it, because the thing about that kind of stuff is that it's not too hard for scum to fake. I am not sure why I put kelbris in my town list earlier because as many times as I've looked at his first three posts, I cannot figure out what it was that I saw, but mutant and Transcend both had things about their posting where I thought 'this is very unlikely to come from scum'. I don't think you've reached that point for me yet, but I think there's a reasonable chance that you would in time, especially if you are in fact town.In post 251, Luca Blight wrote:
Can you explain why being 'very pro-town' hasn't caused you to townread me? Especially considering you were dishing out town reads willy-nilly earlier on in 59.In post 246, DeasVail wrote:Luca is someone that is very pro-town, but I haven't formed a solid opinion on his actual alignment yet. However, I would be unlikely to lynch him as I feel that his alignment will become obvious with time).
I also am similarly concerned by kelbris' recent post.
I'm confused. Do you think you should be in my lynch pool?In post 267, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
youre forgetting our wonderful lurker meIn post 225, DeasVail wrote:UNVOTE: IceGuy
Why shouldn't we?
(Also sorry for getting your pronoun wrong previously)
Also, current lynch pool for me (in order of appearance on the playerlist):
Yuria
Fishy
Elmo
kelbris
Viome
Everyone else I either think is town or don't want to lynch for some other reason. I'm also not sold on the Ectomancer suspicion.
admittedly lurking bc schoolwork but will read up later today or tomorrow
---
At this point I think it is most likely that I will be advocating for an Elmo lynch, but I am keen to see further posting from her, as well as posting from Viome.- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
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Oh I think you're town.In post 276, sheepsaysmeep wrote:i would think that you forgot me because everyone else is town or you dont want to lynch for some reason
why dont you want to lynch me/why do you read me town for lurking
You've got a very clear openness about not having read the thread properly in a way that I believe reveals not having much care for what people in the game think of you, but then there are also some quality posts in there, such as 197
I also found 178 to be quite town. I think scum would have been more hesitant about laying bare transcend's plan. (If transcend is scum, then this doesn't work, however).- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
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Oh dear, I've just realised. And yep no somehow I missed the formatting issue. That all makes a lot more sense now and I'm not sure how it affects my read of you. I had a picture in my head that was never actually true.In post 278, sheepsaysmeep wrote:197 might look like a quality post but it's a 2 liner with messed up formatting
unless our ideas of "quality" differ- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
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This is correct, I'm afraid. I will try to do better.In post 286, Luca Blight wrote:
The fact Deas didn't realise this suggests he's not following the game as closely as he should....In post 278, sheepsaysmeep wrote:197 might look like a quality post but it's a 2 liner with messed up formatting
unless our ideas of "quality" differ- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
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- DeasVail
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What were the townreads on kelbris? I only recall mine and that was more of a mistake than anything else.In post 300, IceGuy wrote:VOTE: kelbris
You hit several scum points at once. You were pretty active in the early game, but after the town reads on you took a backseat. Then comes #253, which Luca has already rightfully called out, and now you put her at L-1 for pretty much no reason at all while stating that "it was not your intention to appear scummy". It's nobody's intention to look scummy. You should state what's your town motivation, instead.
I don't think I'm on board with voting for Ice Guy at this point though.
I've looked through Elmo's posts again and all I see is scum. I'm very tempted to just lynch the slot and save the mod the trouble of finding a replacement etc, but I'm holding off for now.- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
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Ive since decided that I’m okay with going ahead with the lynch. I probably would have hammered if I had checked the thread before your unvote.In post 354, Yuria wrote:why'd you hold off if you were comfortable with putting her at l-1 lol- DeasVail
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This is similar to what my thought process has become. There’s the chance that a replacement would “redeem” the slot, but the most likely thing imo is that Elmo is actually scum and so any redeeming in that case would not be a good thing. I just want to know what Elmo is and move on.In post 357, mutantdevle wrote:
I don't really think there is anything a replacement could add that would make us decide not to lynch. If this slot was a power role then Elmo would have said by now. Giving a replacement a chance to redeem the slot would be what the mafia would want us to do if Elmo was scum.In post 351, Yuria wrote:meh.. UNVOTE: I can wait for a replacement to give me a different look on that slot- DeasVail
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I disagree that there would be nothing gained if Elmo were town. I haven’t analysed things with Elmo-town in mind except for brief snippets of thought here and there, but I find that even with “easy” mislynches it can be very revealing looking at how people approach the wagon. Sometimes the easier the mislynch the more transparent the scum in my experience. But I really don’t think this is a mislynch.In post 360, Luca Blight wrote:Only problem is if Elmo flips Town we gain absolutely nothing from today: It's such an easy wagon that nothing could be gained from analysing it.
There's also slots like the Viome one that haven't contributed at all today - I would like them to before the day is out otherwise they have just been given a complete free pass for D1.- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
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I don’t have time right now to go through things with an Elmo-town mindset (and I tend not to read things with the assumption of a particular alignment until there’s a flip because I’m a slow thinker and also a bit lazy), but I would look at things like how people interacted around the wagon. With an easy mislynch I’d expect scum to feel almost guilty about being associated with it and see if that were betrayed by their posts. I’d also pay attention to more generic things that could be amplified by the situation, such as an increased self-consciousness and care put into how they look with anything Elmo-related. And if someone is avoiding the wagon, why are they avoiding it. Do the reasons feel informed? Are they trying to look town by not mislynching Elmo? It’s difficult speaking in general terms like this without examples, but that’s the best I can do.In post 363, Luca Blight wrote:Deas, what would be your thoughts if Elmo flipped Town?
I also think it’s very unlikely that Elmo is a town PR and I don’t think kelbris is as likely to be scum.- DeasVail
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I am happy with that compromise.In post 378, Fishythefish wrote:I don't think the case on Elmo is strong enough that it's not worth hearing from a replacement. While there are some OK reasons for it, I think this wagon has largely happened through Transcend repeating "Elmo is scum" often enough.- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
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Hey guys, sorry for being somewhat absent for a bit. I'm ready to get back into this though, and I think it's time to do a proper think through my reads. I'll try to keep things brief for the sake of readability (unless I feel elaboration is necessary). I may also ask questions of certain player's in another player's "section", so please at least scan for your name if not reading my post entirely thoroughly.
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Yuria - Read Pending
First, now that I'm going specifically through your ISO, I realise I never responded to 420. There's not too much I can say other than that my instinct upon the replace-out request was to at least wait for the replacement, but then I realised that there was not all that much logical reason to do so. As for my read on the slot now? I don't want to lynch it.
I am also mildly concerned by the above line of questioning from Yuria, since I feel it was a reasonably obvious change of mind that shouldn't have needed much explanation. So, I'm not sure why the push, but meh, it's not a strong reason to think that Yuria is scum.
My read at this stage will largely depend on something that I'm waiting for from Yuria, and I don't want to disclose this yet. Feel free to make me explain it in a couple of RL days if I haven't by then.
Boring, I would appreciate hearing from you on how Yuria's posts that you quoted display a lack of care for what people think of her. (I know they aren't the exact words you used, but I don't remember exactly what)
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Ectomancer - Weak Town
*This read needs to be revised if Boring flips town*
I generally like their posts. Particularly ~town~ things for me are:
- Thoughts on Transcend in 546, which largely aligns with my thinking at this stage of the game.
- The sudden vote on Elmo in 172 also seems unlikely from scum, but I may reconsider this in the event that boring is scum, as I could maybe see it coming from a scumbuddy.
- 199 is a nice post too, but I can't explain why very well.
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IceGuy - Weak Town
What I said in 246 still holds for the most part. The weakness from the read comes from a lack of much else that is significant to me at the moment, as well as ongoing concerns regarding his first few posts of the game.
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Transcend - Weak Scum
I can't explain this read very well, but I remember getting the impression at the beginning of the game that despite the trolliness and hyper-posting, there was a pro-town agenda there. I could see a strong town argument for how Transcend was approaching the game. However, now as I'm looking through his posts, I'm struck by the odd feeling that Transcend doesn't really have that much belief in his reads or what he's saying. It feels.... hollow somehow. I don't want to pursue this scumread (if you could even call it that) right now and it's probably the least confident of all my reads, but it's something I will be thinking about.
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Fishythefish - Town
It's like a direct contrast from the the Transcend read above. His posts clearly come from the place of someone trying to work out the game, but also without any element of "showiness" that I might expect from scum.
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Boring - Somewhere between town and scum
Elmo's play perfectly fit the mold of caught scum for me, but I need to account for the likelihood of confirmation bias there as boring's posts in isolation probably wouldn't lead me to a scumread on the slot. Elmo's play will always have an impact on my read here, but there are things from boring that I do like. I like that she took on Luca Blight, one of the more prolific and dominant posters upon entering the thread. As weird as it might sound, I like the back-and-forth that she's done on her read of me. The way she's done it feels town to me. Nothing SUPERTOWN, though.
(Mild niggle from her suspicion of me for putting "easy targets" in the lynch pool, when she came in attacking Luca Blight. Did she do that because she associates going after stronger players with town? Hmmm.)
I will be watching you!
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mutantdevle - Town
My thoughts have largely been in line with those others have posted and so there's not much for me to add here.
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Luca Blight - Weak Town
It may be needless paranoia that's holding me back from putting him as an outright townread here, but I originally had town next to his name and it just didn't sit right with me. I don't know why. In any case, he has consistently good scumhunting posts. Nothing in his ISO reads as scummy to me. There's also nothing where I go "scum wouldn't do that!", and I don't get that incredibly strong impression of authenticity that I get from fishy, but maybe the good scumhunting, probing posts/questions etc. should be reason enough. I will think on this too.
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kelbris - Weak Scum
There's not much there and again, I have found myself agreeing with other people's posts on him. I don't think I'll be voting there right now though.
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sheepsaysmeep - Weak Scum
In the interest of full disclosure, I've gone into this reads list thinking that this is where I'd end up voting. He's coasted by with very little attention while doing barely anything and it does get to the point where my previous town-lean for his blatant "I'm not reading the thread" does not really fly anymore. And I think this is that time. I feel like town would have gotten their act together and actually tried to contribute by now, especially considering the uncertainty following boring's replace-in. While I guess there's no reason for scum to if he's not in the line of fire for it.
VOTE: sheepsaysmeep
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havingfitz - Pending
I just need more at this stage. Town lean at a guess, but I'm struggling to find much in his posts that I find to be significant for alignment.
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Viomi - Town
I know that a lot of people are calling it NAI, but I actually find her posting druing the replace out to be quite town. I think scum would have been much more likely to replace out and leave it at that, whereas Viomi continues to post after her request. The reason for this is that I think there is a lot less investment in the non-game aspects of in-game posts as scum. You're scum and not going to be the real you, so naturally I believe the investment level is lower. But this is clearly not the case with Viomi who seems genuinely hurt and frustrated in a way that I don't think scum would be.- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
- DeasVail
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- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
- DeasVail
he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
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- Joined: October 7, 2011
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Australia
- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
- DeasVail
he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 13313
- Joined: October 7, 2011
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Australia
- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
- DeasVail
he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
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- Joined: October 7, 2011
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Australia
- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
- DeasVail
he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
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- Joined: October 7, 2011
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Australia
- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
- DeasVail
he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
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- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Australia
- DeasVail
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DeasVail he/himSurvivor
- DeasVail
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I’m voting boring btw.In post 746, davesaz wrote:
IceGuy(4) - boring, kelbris, Ectomancer, Transcend
Transcend(4) - Yuria, IceGuy, havingfitz, mutantdevle
boring(3) - Luca Blight, mutantdevle, Fishythefish
sheepsaysmeep(1) - Rem
not voting (1) - sheepsaysmeep
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch
(expired on 2017-11-12 15:00:00)
Also I don’t think I want to lynch Transcend- DeasVail
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Regarding boring, I think this is the vote that I'm going to be advocating. I still have strong concerns from Elmo's play that are still very much there on a re-read. Boring's posts do cause me to question my read on the slot, but I do have some suspicions. I worry that the initial suspicion on Luca Blight was an attempt to "scumread" a non-easy target, rather than a legitimate scumread. I also don't like the posts implying that her chances of seeing Day 2 are slim, and the talk of scum on her wagon. But, these things are admittedly weak and there are things in boring's posts that I like too.
Despite the waffliness of the above, I think boring is the best lynch. I'm willing to discuss alternatives, but I may not agree.- DeasVail
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It’s not impossible, but I lean towards no because of how unnecessary it was for Transcend scum considering the lack of danger and high risk of the gambit. Again though, not impossible.In post 760, Fishythefish wrote:I agree that boring is the best lynch. The way the wagon is coming and going and usually being rather townish makes me think the scum don't like it.
Any particular reason you don't think TranscendScum would pull this gambit?- DeasVail
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There’s not much time, but if you get the chance I’d like to hear your reasoning.
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My point here was essentially that scum are less emotionally invested in what people say to them in a game than town are. I’m happy for you to disagree with me but I do ask that you at least respect my read.In post 905, Luca Blight wrote:
This is an interesting read. Deas goes out of his way to plant in people's minds that the nature of Viomi's replace out = town. Given Viomi was apparently upset for non game related reasons (the date of her V/LA being brought up struck a cord) I really don't see how Deas can be basing a strong town read on this.In post 554, DeasVail wrote:Viomi - Town
I know that a lot of people are calling it NAI, but I actually find her posting druing the replace out to be quite town. I think scum would have been much more likely to replace out and leave it at that, whereas Viomi continues to post after her request. The reason for this is that I think there is a lot less investment in the non-game aspects of in-game posts as scum. You're scum and not going to be the real you, so naturally I believe the investment level is lower. But this is clearly not the case with Viomi who seems genuinely hurt and frustrated in a way that I don't think scum would be.
I am also curious of your read of me. You seem to be saying that I’m scum for going with the flow but then also criticise my Viomi read and my vote for sheep when it was not a popular wagon (even though there was still a reasonable amount of time before deadline). How would you explain the inconsistency here?
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I’m terms of my reads, I do still want to revisit Day 1 posts, but Ectomancer is someone who was concerning me towards the end of Day 1. I cant really predict where my reads will end up right now though. I’ll get back to you tomorrow.- DeasVail
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Did you read my posts properly or not really? This is actually an important question that I need you to answer honestly.In post 968, UC Voyager wrote:Im reading DV's iso and it is terrifying
He has several naked votes! This pings me for scum! I do not see where the town motivation in naked voting is
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He says that he scum reads sheep, transcend, and Kelbris then votes for Boring????? what the hell
earlier he made a crazy lynch pool then voted for Iceguy who wasn't even listed!
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He has said things like
"scum are more emotionally involved"
This terrifies me because he hasn't been a huge power player. He is trying to tell us how scum act, so they can act differently, so he can avoid scum reads!
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he said that he won't be active til tomorrow
makes one post
i will be v/la for the next few days
I know that people can't control when they are v/la but the fact he made a post after he said he wouldn't be able to post for a day
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He was not pushing Boring til the end of day one. before that, he was pushing for someone else.
It really seems like he was trying to earn some town credit for not being on the wagon. I don't even see where he made a case on boring.
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He town readed sheep for a while, then pulled a 180 and voted for me!
scum will avoid the lynch 30% of the time! They do this because it is easy town credit, and i am thinking there is a good chance of a scum buddy bussing!
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Im not sure if i think that transcend could be scum buddy, but im starting to think he isn't- DeasVail
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Also Fitz is a townread for me. His refusal to play along with town norms is what I expect from him. My impression is that he tries to look better as scum by being more amenable/playing along just a little bit more.
My vote is going to go to Ectomancer when I have access to a computer.
Main things are his commentary on the vig claims which seemed to be trying really hard to make it into a 1v1 when it wasn’t necessarily and his high-information, low-content posting in general such as his vote on me. I get the impression that there’s a faked enthusiasm in his posting that he doesn’t believe in and his post about makes me suspicious of him trying to fuel my wagon without explicitly bandwagoning.
UC Voyager and boring are secondary scumreads for me right now, followed by kelbris.
I will most likely post more detail particularly on Ecto later- DeasVail
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Hey Luca, I will respond to your specific points when I get the chance, but I will say now that I’ve been a lot busier than I expected to be and so it’s been a struggle to properly engage with this. I have to rely on snippets of free time I get at work here and there or reading through things quickly before I go to bed, so a lot of the time my stances are not going to make that much sense based on my previous posts and/or my reads will shift without me making a post about them.- DeasVail
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@Luca: Regarding Fitz, I will dig up our past games together to show you what I mean when I’m not phone posting. Apologies for the delay.
I think Transcend is most likely town. I still believe that the JK claim is unlikely to come from scum.
Regarding the change in attention from Ectomancer to boring, I did lose a bit of my passion for a boring lynch towards the end of Day 1, however I also thought there was a fairly high risk of no lynch with the competing wagons and lack of consensus, and so I wasn’t going to attempt to introduce yet another wagon to the mix by pushing someone else.
Regarding my initial read on Ectomancer, obviously my read has changed? I liked his posting earlier in the game, but not enough to be confident in a townread, hence the weak read. He retracted his town read on Transcend at a very similar time to when I was questioning my Transcend townread, which is obviously not a locked in town tell but I thought it was more likely to be organic considering that I was having similar thoughts. And The post of yours I linked to was clearly not the post I meant.
His post about the jail keeper claims was what first alerted me to something perhaps being wrong with my read, because it was a whole lot of talking about the claims like a 1v1 situation and coming to a conclusion that did not at all follow from the contentless information preceding it. He has since then had very similar rather talky, but insubstantial posts such as 800, 864 and 972.
The post about waiting to hammer me feels particularly insincere. On the surface it would appear that he is wanting to lynch me but with a bit of bravado thrown in, in that he wants the hammer or whatever. But the problem here is that I don’t think im that close to being lynched. Given Day 1 events it’s quite likely that wagons will shift quite a bit over the course of the day, so the whole thing he says about being the hammer are empty words, a complete lack of commitment to scumreading me and I’m pretty sure he knows that.
The above was mostly written earlier in the day on phone but I didn’t get the chance to post it. I’ll post it now and see what’s been written since. - DeasVail
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