i find it scummy that btd6 seemed to be on the same page with Chip 24/7? how Chip defended him and not tried to join his wagon? i mean.....they look like they are working in a group!
In post 720, BTD6_maker wrote:My point about bad Town was that they are much more confident in their reads than the actual probability. For example, I think it's likely that if you take every time a Townie claims to be 80% certain of a read, a lot less than 80% of those reads will be on actual scum.
Unless I am certain of a preferred pronoun, I tend to just use the singular they.
Is it bad to be confident in your reads and thus actually driving the game forward or is it bad to just sit on your ass and do absolutely nothing all game. Also my pronoun is tagged on every single of the thousands of posts I've made on this website.
@Micc
I came to the same conclusions you did when I read overnight. I'm 100% on board here. I'm also willing to vote Cheeky today.
@Hopkirk
did you read the multiple posts where northsidegal was defending our flipped scum? You really think those come from town?
@UC
there's only one scum left my dude there's no possibility of collusion here.
I'm going to read back through tonight. Haven't had a good chance to do that since right after Chip lynch and I want to be able to do it with an open mind.
In post 726, Papa Zito wrote:@Hopkirk did you read the multiple posts where northsidegal was defending our flipped scum? You really think those come from town?
i'm not defending flipped scum, i'm defending my read on him as being justifiable, even if proven wrong. yes, quite obviously my read was incorrect but i don't think it's fair to say that it had no basis in any sort of reasoning or that it was fabricated, which is what micc was arguing. you can arrive to an incorrect conclusion through entirely reasonable thinking, especially in a game like mafia.
Q: Should we, under no circumstances, lynch you today (y/n)?
oh,
was
defending. yeah, i misread him. are you really going to lynch me because i read someone as town and then tried to stop my townread from getting lynched on a case i thought was weak? just because i made a mistake? i think you should give me a little bit more credit that if i were scum i could do something a bit more subtle or with a bit more nuance than hard defending my partner, yeah?
as for the question, it depends on what exactly you're asking. i know that i'm town so i know for a fact that a lynch on me would be a mislynch, but if i did something ridiculous like counterclaim cabd or scumclaim or something then i could see how it would be reasonable for people to want to lynch me. i don't plan on doing anything like that, so yeah, a lynch on me is a bad idea.
The question is p simple, I'll ask a different way. Are you planning on fighting against your lynch tooth and nail all day today?
yes, of course. do you expect me to not? i care about this game and i care about town winning, so if people think the best lynch is on someone that i have a mod-confirmed innocent on (myself), of course i would fight against that.
if you're asking if that's all i plan on doing, then no. i plan on scumhunting, but right now i suppose we're waiting on cheeky's replacement (hope everything's alright, cheeky!) and for btd6 to post more.
there's not a lot of point in asking cheeky's replacement about the thought process behind cheeky's posts and i'm still waiting on btd6 to make some real comments on this day. it's not that i couldn't do something before those things happen, it's that i'd prefer to do things after they happen. i think it'll probably be more productive.
In post 525, Chip Butty wrote:Nopes again. You don't get to ask questions while blowing off questions from others. You haven't contributed anything except that naked vote on BTD. How am i supposed to townread you based on that?
So here's your problem my friend. You've casually insinuated a few times now that my actions are "scummy" without actually giving any backing to the claim. And I've given you ample opportunity to do so. Just to be clear, I'm not asking so you can convince
me
, I know what my alignment is! But if you actually well and truly believe that I'm doing vague and mysterious scummy things then your reaction should include things like:
1. Voting me
2. Asking others to vote me; pushing a wagon
3. Pressuring me into answering questions
4. Examining my iso and voting history in detail
5. Putting forth a case
My issue is that you've done none of these things. Instead what you've done is:
1. Throw shade at my slot
2. Complain about my behavior
3. Refuse to explain basically anything
I came in with a pretty strong scumread on your slot, so when you presented the opportunity to engage I took it and you've failed spectacularly. Nothing you've done in reaction to me has been townie. Instead you've tried to take advantage of my nonstandard behavior by throwing shade to erode the townpoints my predecessor gained without actually committing to it with a vote or writing down a stance I could debunk. Doing that would pin you down into a 1-on-1 that you're not sure you want because you don't know how good a player I am or how good my reads happen to be.
@Micc:
Are you done with BTD or do you still have things to hash out with that slot?
The thread is in danger of collapsing under the weight of the irony of this post alone. This is from a guy whose own "push" on BTD comprised a single naked vote.
I am reading what Chip Butty has to say about Papa Zito.
I can certainly see the hypocrisy of Papa Zito here, naked voting me and then making this case against you. However, what I am wondering is this: do you think that this hypocrisy in itself is scummy?
I am thinking that if Papa Zito really were scum, they would be aware that they are naked voting me to wagon me. Bearing this in mind, they may think that they themselves will be noticed if they try to dismiss your case as merely casting shade and complaining.
Now, if they were Town, it may be that they are blind to their own hypocrisy. This is psychological projection (essentially, "pot calling the kettle black") and is a common phenomenon. Of course, this means that they are bad Town, but in this case they are still Town.
This is why I would regard that Papa Zito post as being very bad, but slightly Townish rather than scummy. Of course, you didn't explicitly call it scummy but you seemed to imply it, hence why I am asking you.
You have said more about Papa Zito, which I will likely analyse in the morning.
defending Chip in this post. it looks like he was trying to take the pressure of Chip. moving it to Papa Zito.
In post 446, Micc wrote:I meant hedging in the sense that every read youve given has had the word "weak" attached to it.
How can you be avoiding confbias regarding reads you don't even have yet. Like as far as I can tell you havent read a single post made my northsidegal or Chip bitty or Sobeov/Zito slot. Can you say something about your read on them so far.
Every read I have given has the word "weak" attached to it because that accurately describes the strength of my read. The alternative would be to lie about the strength of my read. Do you think it is pro-Town to lie about the strength of your read?
I cannot be avoiding confbias regarding reads I don't even have yet. That would not make sense. However, I can certainly try to avoid confbias regarding the reads I do have.
You made a fair point about not reading Northsidegal, Chip Butty, or Sobolev/Zito. It is true that I haven't analysed any posts by them. That is what I will be doing.
he fails to read Chip. common scum move to not read their scum buddy. just in case they are lynched. if they scum read them, they will be called out for not voting them. If they town read them, they risk being called out for town reading a scum!
In post 421, BTD6_maker wrote:I hope that this does not become like Open 642. That was far too inactive and apathetic. It was great for me, because I was scum and the apathy led to two No Lynches, but of course I hope this game doesn't turn out like that.
Have you read the game?
Who do you want lynched today?
I have skimmed the game.
I cannot say I want any one person lynched at the moment. My reads are still very weak and flexible. I will be able to give a better answer later today, perhaps. I do have a very weak scumread on the CheekyTeeky slot, but that slot is being replaced and I will have to read the replacement.
I don't understand how these quotes line up. In one you say you don't want a state of apathy, in the next you say you've only skimmed the game and you ask, for the second time (not quoted part) if anyone has something for you to look at. To me this is asking for direction, when town don't want a state of apathy, they are proactive. You can't fear apathy and yet skim read the game asking for direction, that is very contridictory in intent. The only way I can see this lining up is if you're scum concerned about looking like you care about the game state and not wanting to give away too much with stronger reads or pushes, but looking for someone else's opinions to ride on to divert any blame from yourself.
I don't see any contradiction. Asking for direction was an attempt to avoid apathy, not cause it. When Town don't want a state of apathy, asking for direction can help to avoid that. It is not "very contradictory in intent".
Again, this post looks like another contradiction hunt. This would make your point look like it exposes scum when actually it does not do anything like that. Your "contradiction" is not a contradiction at all.
I have already explained why contradiction hunting benefits scum. If you were Town, you would be more likely to notice (after I have said it) that contradictions are not scum-indicative.
This is a weak-moderate scum read. It's the best vote for now.
VOTE: CheekyTeeky
at this point. NSG had made a case on cheekyteeky. HE votes her on a (moderate scum read)
Yep. Zitos case made no sense. I'm glad we got scum but it should have been because of something that made sense. I respect Zitos gut reads now, I'll just ignore his logic lol. Also mad that you did nothing to discuss anyone D1 Cabd; and that you hammered without discussion.
What are the chances of scum bussing D1? I'm feeling like that's pretty low but it would explain why Papas case made no sense.
I mostly agree with this. I have already explained why I disagree with Zito's case. However, assume Zito is scum. Zito of course would know that they are bussing, but so would Chip. If
Zito made a very weak case
and Chip knows that they want a bus on themselves, they would likely not rebut Zito's case in a way that exposes it completely. So why did they do it? Of course, it could simply be what they think they would do if Town, which is simply defend. Another possibility is that Chip rebutting all of Zito's points is a signal to stop bussing, or perhaps a signal that they should start cross-bussing. Overall, though, I think a bus is pretty unlikely here, so I think Zito is likely Town. They are a moderate Townread of mine now. That said, I still think they are bad Town.
Similarly, Cabd is confirmed Town but I think they made the wrong decision to hammer, even though Chip flipped scum. It seems like Cabd took a gamble and happened to get lucky. I would say that Cabd is also bad Town.
I seem to be calling a lot of people bad Town. This is probably true. People generally have a range of cognitive biases (unless they actively try to oppose them, but there are generally still biases even then) so I can see elements of bad Town in many people. In the past, I certainly was bad Town quite a lot. Even now I probably still have many undetected biases. The main reason why I noticed that there are a lot of bad Town is that I seemed to find that the probability that an average Townie's scumread is correct is significantly less than the probability the Townie gives to their read.
if i read this correctly, this says that Papa Zito made a weak case on Chip. i disagree. Papa Zito made a lot of good points. I think he had a solid case.
In post 519, Chip Butty wrote:
So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...
rofl I don't owe that guy anything and I sure as hell don't need to "town it up a bit"
Which hey look you've once again made a super vague statement. So here I am asking why you're tossing shade instead of either determining alignment or pushing a wagon. Can you plz solve this mysterious mystery.
Once again you've dodged the question while throwing shade. I'll ask the question again: Why would scum Zito be more likely to act this way than town Zito.
In post 525, Chip Butty wrote:Nopes again. You don't get to ask questions while blowing off questions from others. You haven't contributed anything except that naked vote on BTD. How am i supposed to townread you based on that?
So here's your problem my friend. You've casually insinuated a few times now that my actions are "scummy" without actually giving any backing to the claim. And I've given you ample opportunity to do so. Just to be clear, I'm not asking so you can convince
me
, I know what my alignment is! But if you actually well and truly believe that I'm doing vague and mysterious scummy things then your reaction should include things like:
1. Voting me
2. Asking others to vote me; pushing a wagon
3. Pressuring me into answering questions
4. Examining my iso and voting history in detail
5. Putting forth a case
My issue is that you've done none of these things. Instead what you've done is:
1. Throw shade at my slot
2. Complain about my behavior
3. Refuse to explain basically anything
I came in with a pretty strong scumread on your slot, so when you presented the opportunity to engage I took it and you've failed spectacularly. Nothing you've done in reaction to me has been townie. Instead you've tried to take advantage of my nonstandard behavior by throwing shade to erode the townpoints my predecessor gained without actually committing to it with a vote or writing down a stance I could debunk. Doing that would pin you down into a 1-on-1 that you're not sure you want because you don't know how good a player I am or how good my reads happen to be.
@Micc:
Are you done with BTD or do you still have things to hash out with that slot?
done some of the things you're describing! as for pressuring you to answer questions, what do you call 523 and 525? you say that he's not examining your iso in detail, but that's pretty much what he does in 521. you could make the argument that he didn't analyze it in detail, but i would say that there wasn't really a whole lot to analyze. it doesn't make a lot of sense for chip to just suddenly start voting you and pushing your wagon just because he believes you've been scummier than ss was - the townread on ss still exists.
I feel absolutely no pressure from Chip whatsoever. Complaining that he doesn't like what I'm doing (523/525)/ taking his ball and going home (526) forces nothing from me at all. You argued your own point on 521, well done.
The SS hedge is fun but either I'm scummy to him or I'm not. He's thrown enough shade to make it clear he thinks the latter so I think I'm perfectly justified asking why his actions aren't aligning with his words.
Here......this isn't a vague case...a little repetitive....but he has a solid case.
In post 510, Chip Butty wrote:BTD has been avoiding making strong reads, yes, but he is very conscious of that and keeps drawing attention to it, so he definitely not hoping it will go unnoticed. And he is actually right, there hasn't been anything to form a strong read on yet, so i am sympatico. His approach contrasts with the Micc/CT overstate-and-bluff approach to scumhunting, which also has its merits when used correctly. I'm not feeling BTD's CT vote though. I think he probably just a thoughtful, cautious player who will hopefully get stronger reads as the game progresses. If not then can lynch, but i won't be lynching him today.
I think I'll wait for substantial posts from UCV before actually voting. I'm inclined to look at BTD's wagon next. I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot. Time to revisit Hopkirk, methinks, esp since i still hold the view that he and Micc are unlikely both to be scum.
In post 464, CheekyTeeky wrote:Like you read things but what do you think about it all? Did you get any reads? Why are you voting BTD6_MAKER? What made him scummy to you?
yeah see this is a much better post than complaining
I do have reads yes and unlike Friend BTD6 I had no trouble getting strong reads.
I'm voting him for reasons I don't want to get into at this time.
In post 474, CheekyTeeky wrote:
Complaining? I said I need more...like more information to make a conclusion. I didn't say omg why is Zito not posting more game content. That's a pretty strong reaction to a pretty neutral statement. Prefacing your post like that makes withholding your read seem more scummy than I'd otherwise find it.
That's a strong reaction? ok
Good thing I'm not too terribly worried about what your read on me is I guess.
In post 476, northsidegal wrote:so what are those strong reads zito? any townreads? who do you think is scummy? your predecessor (you replaced kawso, right?) thought i was scum, do you agree?
I do have townreads yes.
This is the total PZ output before i poked him. Vote on BTD with no stated reason, and repeated assurances thatvyes he has strong townreads and evidence for them, but nothing forthcoming. And he just blows off anyone who expresses suspicion of him, rather than actually engaging them. That's why i said he is scumming up the slot.
Oh, and I'd REALLY be interested in hearing why Micc is willing to sheep onto such a weak-ass vote on BTD.
Okay, I think we're rolling now, at long last.
In post 523, Chip Butty wrote:Well, can you at least say why you don't want to give your reasons for your BTD vote?
I'm willing to hear you out but you're coming across to me as unnecessarily secretive and evasive. Unnecessarily if you're town, that is...
In post 525, Chip Butty wrote:Nopes again. You don't get to ask questions while blowing off questions from others. You haven't contributed anything except that naked vote on BTD. How am i supposed to townread you based on that?
Lots of interesting stuff I found from Chip about BTD6. He defended BTD6 when there was a wagon on him. You would think that the scum would try to support a wagon...unless the wagon was their scum buddy.
In post 682, CheekyTeeky wrote:Saying words and criticising is not equal to a case. If you had actually paid attention to the interaction you'd know that all of zito's points weren't true. Chip was actually doing the things Zito said he should be doing as town.
You not seeing the hypocrisy makes me feel like you're not reading the game properly because you know people's alignments. Also you attacking BTD feels like a cheap push. Your hesitation to vote NSG makes me believe she could be town. One of you two are scum and it could very well be you.
VOTE: UCV
My cheap push? Did you read what I said. Did you even look at the chip defending BTD6, BTD6 defending chip? They seemed to support each other a lot. Didn't ever question each Other.
If I were scum, my best move would to support the NSG case. It is a way easier wagon than BTD6!
In post 725, UC Voyager wrote:i find it scummy that btd6 seemed to be on the same page with Chip 24/7? how Chip defended him and not tried to join his wagon? i mean.....they look like they are working in a group!
lets add more.
BTD6 hasn't even acknowledged my case. He still doesn't seem to be doing much scum hunting, and isn't showing any signs of town
what are you trying to get out of this line of questioning?
just putting content in the thread that I can go back and make reads off of later. nothing different than I'm ever doing.
Walk me through UC. What makes you think he could be scum?
it's more of a question of "what would lead me to believe that he's town?", and the answer to that is not much. his slot made it out of day one with barely any content, so he's not a part of the townblock that i've formed in my mind.
Alright, I'm back on the train. I read back and still think northsidegal's interactions with Chip look like they are partners. Her lack of comment or interest on UC voyager's case against BTD is evidence that she's not trying to sort UC despite him being present and in her lynch pool. Waiting for replacements to begin scumhunting is also the tell I've had the most success with across multiple games, so that's another thing against her.
yeah, i thought you might say that. listen, i'd rather wait until everyone's actually in the game to begin gamesolving, even if ucv is right here. i could have just not said anything in the thread today but i felt like in the interest of transparency i would answer everything. i don't see a whole lot of point in going really in-depth right now when it's likely that the gamestate will change once someone replaces in, and i'll have more information to work with then. it's not that i'm not trying to sort ucv, it's that i'd rather do it later. you know, a part of it is even real life stuff. i'm not entirely up to the task of making a case today, so i didn't want to force myself to do anything because i knew it would be weaker than it could have been, even though i knew that was clearly what you were looking for.
it's really frustrating to me that i'm getting scumread for these really weak reasons (at least to me). i would be more understanding of this if someone came up with a really good case on me, because we would just go to tomorrow with me confirmed. as it is now, though, i feel like this is all a big waste of time.
So if the game state changes and it affects your read then you explain what changed and why. If youre town then waiting is just a waste of time. If your scum it allows you to sculpt your opinions around those of the replacement in a way that furthers your game plan.
I'm not going to try and explain the reasons again when all you do is brush them as being generally weak. The hand wave dismissal isn't a defense and that's all I see as a response to the cases that have been laid out.
In post 748, UC Voyager wrote:Wait. You don't want us to scum hunt until there is a replacment. If I wasn't so confidant in BTD6, I would say NSG was scummy...
i'm not trying to direct the actions of other people. i'm saying that i, personally, will be waiting to see how the replacement enters the thread.
Also my pronoun is tagged on every single of the thousands of posts I've made on this website.
Also my pronoun is tagged on every single of the thousands of posts I've made on this website.