Well, now I have. I have been scumhunting throughout. I think that your "signs of town" do not work statistically. Is Town really more likely than random to show "signs of town"? Be specific about particular signs, then we can use statistics.
this seems to be the only one......
answer
town will actually contribute. another sign of town is voting for the scum
also scum reading the scum
being separate from town lynch
NOT saying "i dont have reads yet"
so on so on.....you seem to have done nothing to seem townie, and there are reasons to say you are scum!
Read the rest of the post.
Firstly, I have actually contributed. Also, do you have statistics to show that Town contributes more than scum, on average?
Voting for the scum, scum reading the scum, and being separate from the Town lynch all require foreknowledge of the scum. What you are trying to say is that Town has to be right all the time. I already rebutted that. Also, have you ever heard of bussing? It's common.
That point is a PRATT. You keep on presenting it as a solid point without bothering to read the refutation. You have to address the refutation directly and why you think it is wrong. You are not doing so.
The last point is similar. I have said many, many times that I try to accurately show the strength of my reads, and I will not try to inflate them to make them stronger than is warranted. Are you suggesting that lying about reads is Townish?
NO. what im saying is someone isn't voting for the scum, there is a greater chance they are scum. scum dont buss often! It is an ineffective strategy! When scum do buss, Town usually puts it together! I have played as scum before, and never have I tried bussing!
I concede that you do have a point here. Scum are more likely to vote Town than scum. However, what about Town? Town are probably no more likely to vote scum than random, especially on Day 1. So while it may be true that not voting scum makes you more likely to be scum, the increase is marginal at best. Your point is a lot weaker than you think. Repeating the point does not make it stronger. You need better points. Try to answer everything else in my rebuttal.
"one of these days i'll read you correctly" - Transcend, Micro 714
Scum chose to kill. The optimal play seems to be priming until killing has a chance of winning immediately. Thus scum would have wanted a specific reason to have UC Voyager dead. I will need to analyse who this is. This will be very helpful in determining who the last scum is.
We have at least two mislynches, as a result. If scum prime and ignite successfully, we will be in a 3P LyLo.
My lynch pool is down to Micc and Hopkirk, with Papa Zito as the outside chance.
"one of these days i'll read you correctly" - Transcend, Micro 714
Scum had to actively submit a kill action. There is only one scum remaining that could have done so. CheekyTeeky's slot had been empty throughout the night, so that slot could not have submitted the kill and is therefore not scum.
"one of these days i'll read you correctly" - Transcend, Micro 714
In post 814, Micc wrote:And you're taking that with 100% confidence?
For all practical purposes, yes. CheekyTeeky had explicitly replaced out so I am assuming that they played no part during the night, because they were no longer part of this game. From this, it follow that since whoever is the remaining scum had to at least be in the game during the night, they cannot be CheekyTeeky.
"one of these days i'll read you correctly" - Transcend, Micro 714
heh. If that reasoning is sound then given the game's already solved. I don't know whether to scum read you or not for getting most of the way there but not reaching the conclusion.
Mod: How would you handle an empty slot that had a night action to submit?
Mod: How would you handle an empty slot that had a night action to submit?
If a slot has been officially abandoned, I would roll a die to determine which action they may perform, if any, and who they would perform it on would all be randomized.
Assuming that a lone Arsonist was abandoned, would they have a 1/3 chance of priming, 1/3 chance of igniting, and a 1/3 chance of No Action or a 1/2 chance of priming and a 1/2 chance of igniting?
VOTE: CheekyTeeky
It would have not been optimal play for scum to have ignited. In general, scum only ignite when they have a chance of winning immediately (it's essentially wasting a priming). Thus this was most likely to occur as the result of the dice roll.
"one of these days i'll read you correctly" - Transcend, Micro 714
yuck. I hate being influenced by the moderator as a player and I especially hate being put in a situation where I can influence the game when I'm the moderator. sucks for everybody.
That's why, whenever I am modding and need a replacement during the Night, I always delay the Night until one is found, even if it takes a very long time. I don't randomise actions unless they are Compulsive, and I would never modkill slots for needing a replacement because that would have an influence on the game.
"one of these days i'll read you correctly" - Transcend, Micro 714
Assuming that a lone Arsonist was abandoned, would they have a 1/3 chance of priming, 1/3 chance of igniting, and a 1/3 chance of No Action or a 1/2 chance of priming and a 1/2 chance of igniting?
Firstly as a moderator I would not make an action I could not rationalize any other player as being able to make. Similarly, I would not consider lingering spirits, that are otherwise valid targets, to be targetted in the case of priming, as well as any partners the Misleader (arsonist analogue) may have. Additionally, if an ignite were win the game, there would be no die roll.
The dice roll odds in this scenario would be 50-50.
