Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

[Luca Blight]

Spoiler:

[
I believe you.
But can you ask the mod to confirm you are IC to remove all doubt?

If you're actually IC, don't do this.

He is quite clearly Inexperience Challenged. Now quit flapping your gums and jump on his wagon.

Why so hasty

There are two wagons today. Transcend and IceGuy and he wouldn't jump on his own wagon right? And I can't get both a Transcend and an Iceguy wagon going by myself, I'm going to need some help. So naturally I am going to petition the guy who wouldn't be on an Iceguy wagon to anchor this Transcend one for me.
We are starting to get some movement on Transcend though, so I am going to:

UNVOTE: Transcend

VOTE: Iceguy

Transcend kicks off the game with the "IC" claim (quoted due to "Chile") and havingfritz decides to cross foils with him. So it begins. I don't know the alignment of these two, but they were creating information and rope by which people might hang themselves.
I asked myself why Iceguy would state the super obvious to Transcend to not ask the mod to confirm the role claimed. Iceguy has been around, but Transcend has literally 10x the number of posts of either one of us. So I'm slapping Iceguy with an "I'm a super helpful townie" scum tell violation.

Ectomancer

looks

town

. The post above is my favorite (try to focus on the motivation behind a post like that rather than the content). The way he cheered on Luca looked very town motivated too. He engaged Elmo productively, or at least tried. He also appears motivated to move the game along.

Why aren't you accusing him of buddying?

[Transcend]

Because she's trying to appear busy

[mutantdevle]

UNVOTE:

I probably won’t vote for boring again unless it’s that or a no lynch.

[IceGuy]

So I'm at work and now there are like six new pages. Will read them and report back.

[havingfitz]

- Iceguy tbd

- Iceguy townlean

[IceGuy]

Okay, most of those pages was useless back-and-forth and Transcend spamming.

Let's drop this bullshit plotline where Transcend was being mean to Elmo. He was calling for a lynch on someone who he believes to be scum and

in a humorous fashion!

. Transcend does NOT need to apologize before Elmo leaves the site for good. Elmo needs to take a break from mafia. Playing mafia means being pressured and Transcend's images were PG-13 at worst and made me chuckle.

Two people have now replaced out because of Transcend for reasons that seem NAI. He seems to take the joy out of playing for most people and that's anti-town behavior because it makes good lynches (i.e. lynches that hit scum) harder. Not necessarily scummy behavior but it doesn't help town either, since his "reads" are all over the place and don't come with a justification.

FYI, the Elmo turns town means Iceguy scum theory was already laid out by me as soon as IceGuy voted and ties in Yuria-scum.

Looks like you're still trying to save that page 2 read.

---

I don't see Luca as scum. I saw him playing as scum and he played differently, pushing lynches (in that case: me) way harder. I also don't see another reason why he could be scum.

I have a townread on Fish and fitz.

I have a gut feeling that DeasVail is scum.

I want to see more content from kelbris, Yuria and Viomi's replacement.

boring continues Elmo's tradition of not doing anything that seems to have a scum motivation, while also not doing anything that helps town.

[boring]

K but who is mafia

Your only sr was luca

He called you out on your bullshit

You backpedaled

Find another substantial fos plz

Patience, sweetheart.

[Fishythefish]

mutant's Post 454 makes me happier with his reasons for voting Elmo/boring. I disagree with quite a lot of that post, actually, but not in a way that makes me think mutant is dishonest or scummy. I'm not up for a mutant wagon; I think mutant is scumhunting in an open, here-is-what-I'm-thinking way that is fairly hard for scum to fake.

---

@Yuria - can you walk me through your kelbris vote? He's not even registering for me yet, so I want to understand why he's your scummiest pick.

I'll play! I think kelbris put Elmo at L-1 without thinking she was actually scum, while trying to excuse it. This is a bad thing to do. I really want answers to these:

VOTE: kelbris

@kelbris: why do you think Elmo is scum? You say you were "voicing disapproval of Elmo's recent posts" - which posts in a particular, and why do they make Elmo scum? What changed between 253 and 299 to make you vote Elmo?

---

I should probably work out if boring is scum. I had a weak scumread on Elmo.

In boring's replace-in post:
- She thinks I'm town *must suppress anti-OMGUS*. Her reasoning makes sense - it would be super-easy to have gone along with an Elmo lynch - but I'm not sure why this is applied to fitz and me and not other people off the wagon. Why is that, boring?
- Her reasoning for mutant-town really rings true with me in parts; particularly "He's cumbersome in a way that scum rarely are. As has already been pointed out by two players now, he's trying to policy me, and he doesn't even seem to realize it."
- I don't see her Luca scumread. I think Luca's early game in particular was really solid - asking sensible, scumhunting questions of a few people. I can see how you get to boring's analysis through a bit of an OMGUS lens.
- I disagree with Transcend that these are particularly convenient scumreads. LucaScum is

not

the obvious choice. I think a random set of reads could be spun in much the way Transcend does.

Since then - I don't really see any reason to think boring is scum. It's not an easy slot to replace into, 'cos Transcend (I'm not saying his behaviour shouldn't be allowed, but it doesn't look fun to play against). I think boring is doing as good a job of it as can be expected.

So yeah, let's defy the dog and not lynch this.

[boring]

I'm stuck on DeasVail. I'm stuck because of the general impression that he's playing a good scum game. His posts are mild, his targets are easy, and his explanations seem good on the surface.

This post

Spoiler:

Deas, you said earlier in the game you were 'very torn' on IceGuy and I see you've now unvoted and excluded him from your lynch pool.

Can you walk me through your read progression of IceGuy so far?

12: I remember thinking that I might RVS this as it seemed slightly over-explanatory, but overall not that significant.

I became more concerned at 33, as I was pretty sure it was a usual thing for people to exaggerate "scumreads" in early game and so it seemed overly defensive. 48 had a similar vibe, as I didn't get that impression from Ectomancer at all.

However, I then liked his approach to mutant. He expressed suspicion of mutant's reads list but also took initiative in working out whether this was something alignment-indicative for mutant or not (a step beyond the other players in the game from memory)

Since then, I think his approach to the Elmo wagon has been fairly town, as was his suspicion of me followed by unvote.

He is a townread for me at this point in time.

Also, current lynch pool for me (in order of appearance on the playerlist):

Yuria
Fishy
Elmo
kelbris
Viome

Would you mind explaining why those people are in your lynch pool?

Elmo is the only person I explicitly have a scumread on (I am still of this opinion, as well, fwiw).

The other four stand out to me as people that have not made much of an impression. I explicitly do not read them as town, nor do I have another good reason for keeping them around. (E.g. I'm not sure about my read on havingfitz but I have played with him before and expect that I will have a better idea as the game goes on. Luca is someone that is very pro-town, but I haven't formed a solid opinion on his actual alignment yet. However, I would be unlikely to lynch him as I feel that his alignment will become obvious with time).

The lynch pool explanation in particular illustrates my concern. It's an easy pool. It's all people who aren't trying very hard (or are trying, but bad at fitting into the site meta). It's a pool that's pretty easy for most players to swallow too. Even those in it, as he's not actively gunning for any of them.

I babble, and this looks like a babble post I might make, except he's not me. So unless we're soul brothas, I can't assume it was just aimless babble. Only, I can't figure out the aim

Spoiler:

Deas, what would be your thoughts if Elmo flipped Town?

I don’t have time right now to go through things with an Elmo-town mindset (and I tend not to read things with the assumption of a particular alignment until there’s a flip because I’m a slow thinker and also a bit lazy), but I would look at things like how people interacted around the wagon. With an easy mislynch I’d expect scum to feel almost guilty about being associated with it and see if that were betrayed by their posts. I’d also pay attention to more generic things that could be amplified by the situation, such as an increased self-consciousness and care put into how they look with anything Elmo-related. And if someone is avoiding the wagon, why are they avoiding it. Do the reasons feel informed? Are they trying to look town by not mislynching Elmo? It’s difficult speaking in general terms like this without examples, but that’s the best I can do.

I also think it’s very unlikely that Elmo is a town PR and I don’t think kelbris is as likely to be scum.

I picked DaesVail to review after Ecto, because I was expecting him to come out as a town lean. A good scum game looks like this. An okay town game looks like this too. This is completely unhelpful at the moment, I realize, but it may be helpful to someone later. Whether this is a good scum game or a "meh" town game should become more obvious over time.


p-edit: @Fishythefish: I saw just today that Yuria also made a "wait for the replacement" comment, which I hadn't noticed before, but you and Fitz didn't just not vote me. I saw you both discussing my lynch in a way that would make it difficult for you to justify a sudden hammer. That suggests town motivation.

[Transcend]

UNVOTE:

I probably won’t vote for boring again unless it’s that or a no lynch.

K

But no

[boring]

Spoiler:

Nice job dodging the question

yeah, I have a reason. Not gonna push it until I've seen more from them, but it wasn't just random.

I don't understand why you feel you'd have anything to cause you to hold out on such a trivial read at this point in the game.

Speak for yourself. I wanted to interact with fishy in a way other than just asking "shouldn't you be voting iceguy?" so I wouldn't put him on the defensive immediately and give him an excuse to join the wagon. It's hard for me to tell whether he actually forgot to vote or not but I'm not willing to write it off just yet.

No, I'm not implying that scum wouldn't wagon hop. IceGuy is saying specifically that "Ectomancer seems more intent on finding somebody to lynch, instead of finding scum." I don't think that fits well with Ectomancer's actions - hopping between two about equally sized wagons doesn't really look like going for any old lynch - so I want to hear more from IceGuy on why he thinks this.

If Ectomancer wants to "look towny for not hopping too much" on these early wagons, surely leaving Transcend's wagon would undermine that? For this to make sense, I think Ectomancer would have to be able to use their early vote on Transcend as cover for a vote later. And they pretty clearly couldn't.

Can you explain what's alignment indicative for iceguy about this line of questioning? These posts feel like they're reading too much into ecto's actions too much to defend them for no reason.

VOTE: Elmo
She really needs to explain her vote and her previous excuses/setup talk pinged me. I still like my fishy vote explaining why she wants to lynch based on usefulness when criticizing mutant for the same thing is more important rn.

also iceguy's wagon is more understandable on a reread. I'm still mulling over whether he's worth voting or not.

(that's l-2 if y'all aren't paying attention)

why'd you hold off if you were comfortable with putting her at l-1 lol

Ive since decided that I’m okay with going ahead with the lynch. I probably would have hammered if I had checked the thread before your unvote.

No I mean what was making you doubt beforehand. You're going back and forth between confidence about Elmo scum and not and I don't understand what your actual perspective is. Moreover if she's an easy Lynch as you're callong what is making you so sure in this instance it's the right one?

I'm leaning weak town on Yuria, but with only 13 posts, I'm not willing to go so far as to stamp "TOWN" on her forehead. My favorite of her posts are above. The first illustrates what I see as a lack attention to how she's perceived, and both suggest that she's making an effort to gamesolve.

[boring]

I don't think there's anything AI to be extracted from LUV/Viomi. LUV is one of the best players on this site (as both alignments), so there's no reason for him to dip out based on role. As for Viomi's increased activity with attention, it's in line with what we saw during the fall out. That is, a certain level of reactivity, which is more personality than alignment.


.... I'll do at least one more player in about 5-6 hours.

[mutantdevle]

@boring I really like the way you are giving reads. It’s much nicer to read a post per person at a time and I think it reflects that you are indeed experienced at replacing into games.

[kelbris]

Back, will read up on the game and respond/give reads later on today/tomorrow.

[boring]

@boring I really like the way you are giving reads. It’s much nicer to read a post per person at a time and I think it reflects that you are indeed experienced at replacing into games.

Thank you!

[davesaz]

Finding replacement for Viomi

[boring]

This is the kind of post that could spawn a game-theory dissertation. I understand the backlash.

Spoiler:

[
I believe you.
But can you ask the mod to confirm you are IC to remove all doubt?

If you're actually IC, don't do this.

I also understand Elmo's reaction to Iceguy after this post. I disagree that it was a buddy attempt, though. It reads almost like blackmail. "As long as you don't fight too hard, I'll just sit back and let someone else take the blame for your lynch. But don't forget that I can fuck you up". I included the wagon breakdown, though because it's just so bizarre.

FTR, "pressure votes" are an easy excuse for scum to park on town without actual justification. And saying you want to "pressure" someone by warning them that your vote would be a hammer is all-around terrible.

Spoiler:

@Mod: Please check DeasVail's vote. The VC shows him as voting Elmo, but he's voting me.

So, you don't think it's alignment indicative, but you voted him when pointing it out and still say your vote is in the right place. How does this make sense?

Personally I found it to be fluff at best. Im going to contradict myself here I'm completely aware of this.

Okay, so this is not a satisfactory answer. I'm still not going to vote you, because my vote would be the hammer, but I wanted it to be a pressure vote.

I don't really see a reason to hammer you, because I fail to see a scum motivation for your actions. What I also don't see is a town motivation for your actions.

Also, my point on how fast this wagon came together still stands. The wagon reeks of scum which indicates to me that it's a wagon on town.

[...]

So, let's have a look at the wagon on Elmo. The people on it are Ectomancer, Luca Blight, Transcend, mutantdevle and Yuria. DeasVail isn't on it but both the mod and he himself think he is, so I'm going to include him here.

Luca and Transcend look solid town. Yuria was in the scum camp but is getting townier; mutant is null to me.

DeasVail is scummy, though. Few posts, hopping with little justification (or attempted hopping, to be precise), no commitment to town reads and "strong suspicion" on Transcend for the fake hammer. Hammering without a claim should elicit a harsher reaction than a rather quiet post.

I also don't like Ecto. He still defends his RVS/non-RVS vote on me and he had absolutely no problem with putting Elmo on L-1. Ironically he's being "helpful town" in 172, the same thing he called me scum for. I'm no longer ready to see his behavior as "scummy town", I believe it's "scummy scum".

VOTE: DeasVail

and ready to also vote Ectomancer if that wagon turns out to be more successful

Are you real serious?

Spoiler:

boring continues Elmo's tradition of not doing anything that seems to have a scum motivation, while also not doing anything that helps town

.

Iceguy

definitely feels

scummy

. Scumlean for now. I'll wait to rank and vote until I'm done. I think I'm at least halfway through at this point.

[sheepsaysmeep]

hi

[Transcend]

Well i agree with you about ice

[boring]

Yeah, so

kelbris

could also be

scum

. He seems hyper aware of how he's perceived, and there's no indication of town-motivation in his votes. Now, I get that not everyone would get that disagreement =/= scum when they are new to the game, but there's more to it in this case. I'm left with the overwhelming impression that he feels like a deer in the headlights. As if he's doing his best to avoid letting the team down too badly, by trying to place safe votes, and avoiding attention.

[boring]

Well i agree with you about ice

Fuck yeah. Does that mean I don't have to sleep on the couch tonight? It's really lumpy... and covered in cat hair.


.... okay, sheep tomorrow, and then the review of Fitz, Fish, Luca, Transend, and Mutant. Probably all about 24 hours from now because Wednesdays are awful.

[Ectomancer]

Geezus I hate this but I have to retract a town tell.

Town people please tell me....who the fuck died and made Transcend town? Nobody? Nobody died? Claimed? Night result? Nothing?

Then why are boring and Luca going back and forth about buddying with Transcend? Transcend ain't town! At least not in my little part of it! He might not be scum either, but nobody over here gave him a notary public stamp like these two have seen on his person somewhere.

[Ectomancer]

Well i agree with you about ice

Let me restate what I said earlier then only in a different way:

If IceGuy flips scum, boring is town and Yuria is scum.

[Luca Blight]

Where did I say Transcend was Town?

Boring was scumreading me based on alleged 'buddying' with Transcend - all I did was point out the BS she was spouting.

[Luca Blight]

I don't see Luca as scum. I saw him playing as scum and he played differently, pushing lynches (in that case: me) way harder. I also don't see another reason why he could be scum.

I have a townread on Fish and fitz.

I have a gut feeling that DeasVail is scum.

I want to see more content from kelbris, Yuria and Viomi's replacement.

boring continues Elmo's tradition of not doing anything that seems to have a scum motivation, while also not doing anything that helps town.

Why do you townread Fish and Fitz?

If you feel Deas is scum why not vote him?

I agreed with your point earlier about Elmo lacking both town and scum motivation in her posts, but I don't think you can say the same about Boring; to do so feels like you're choosing to be non-committal on the topical slot of the game. I think there is enough content now from Boring to take a stance one way or the other, so which is it to be?