Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #875 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:32 am

Post by BTD6_maker »

In post 873, Micc wrote:I mean you brought it up as a non zero possibility and then voted me with that being the entire case, so I do think it's an accusation. It's gross.
We probably disagree here on what constitutes an accusation. I do not consider it an accusation (and thus not gross) while you clearly do. Do you have any remarks on the rest of that post?

PEdit: In that case, what would you say about the other cases? If the Mod had made their night action resolution public, would it be abusing the system to frame CheekyTeeky in that way?

In the fourth point, I said that intentionally planning night actions around it was not necessarily the only way this could have happened. Like I said, it could simply be a case of Mod meta. I would not consider it abusing the system.
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Post Post #876 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:47 am

Post by Micc »

In post 875, BTD6_maker wrote:PEdit: In that case, what would you say about the other cases? If the Mod had made their night action resolution public, would it be abusing the system to frame CheekyTeeky in that way?
Yeah. It would still be using the moderator's policies to push a mislynch. The moderator is an outside influence on the game. Their policies should not affect who gets lynched. I hate the fact that we auto lynched cheeky slot because of moderator influence yesterday and I especially hate you for suggesting I'd plan my day opening around how the moderator was influencing the game.

It doesn't matter if it was mod meta, or posted in the game rules or PMed privately to me just because the mod thought I might want to know. I think the play you are suggesting I might have done and are voting me exclusively for is unethical. Come find me when you have a real case to push on me.

VOTE: BTD6_maker
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Post Post #877 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:53 am

Post by Lycanfire »

VC 4.0Image
The lights are on, but nobody is home.


Leading Wagon
Micc (1) - BTD6_maker
BTD6_maker (1) - Micc

Not Voting: Papa Zito, Cabd, Hopkirk

With 5 alive it will require 3 votes to achieve a lynch.

Day 4 will end in (expired on 2017-11-22 11:07:00).
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Post Post #878 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:58 am

Post by BTD6_maker »

In post 876, Micc wrote:
In post 875, BTD6_maker wrote:PEdit: In that case, what would you say about the other cases? If the Mod had made their night action resolution public, would it be abusing the system to frame CheekyTeeky in that way?
Yeah. It would still be using the moderator's policies to push a mislynch. The moderator is an outside influence on the game. Their policies should not affect who gets lynched. I hate the fact that we auto lynched cheeky slot because of moderator influence yesterday and I especially hate you for suggesting I'd plan my day opening around how the moderator was influencing the game.

It doesn't matter if it was mod meta, or posted in the game rules or PMed privately to me just because the mod thought I might want to know. I think the play you are suggesting I might have done and are voting me exclusively for is unethical. Come find me when you have a real case to push on me.

VOTE: BTD6_maker
The moderator's night action resolution is a part of the mechanics of the game, just as much as, for example, a setup containing a Cop and a Doctor is a part of the game. At the very least, this would be the case if it were posted in the game rules. A rule like "Empty slots will have their Night actions randomised" is as much a part of the game as a rule like "This setup contains a Cop, a Doctor, 5 VTs, and 2 Mafia Goons". The mechanics of the game can indeed affect who gets lynched, and I do not consider this unethical. Again, there may be a disagreement between what is unethical. I personally would consider it unethical when you are trying to do something that would otherwise be against the rules, but in this case you would be playing within the rules (at least, this would certainly be the case if the night action resolution were posted in the game rules). I can't find any rule that is even bent here.

Of course, this is likely just a disagreement in what's ethical. You may consider many cases of playing within the rules to be nevertheless unethical. Does that mean that what I am saying is more likely to be said by scum than by Town? If so, why?
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Post Post #879 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:07 am

Post by Micc »

Sure, we disagree on ethics. Let's never play in each other's games again and agree to drop this line of conversation.

You're scum for everything I talked about in 856. Your push on me is part of it too but more so from a standpoint of scum have to make bad pushes and your push is bad. Finally, I don't want you in lylo because I know I wouldn't be able to lynch anyone else no matter how much I reconsidered.
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Post Post #880 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:15 am

Post by Hopkirk »

Cheeky was legitimately scummy, so I don't see how framing them would be worth it for scum. The only advantage I can see for scum is that getting rid of Cheeky stops a new pair of eyes entering the game, but that only works if Cheeky didn't get replaced before being lynched, or after being lynched.
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Post Post #881 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:38 am

Post by BTD6_maker »

"scum have to make bad pushes" doesn't really hold up. Town probably make more bad pushes than scum do, and scum can easily make perfectly good pushes against Town. Indeed, scum would generally make better pushes than Town would, because they have the extra information of knowing everyone's alignment.

Your last point makes no sense. Are you saying that you don't want me in LyLo because you don't think you can push a lynch on anyone else except me? What are you trying to imply here?
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Post Post #882 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:41 am

Post by Micc »

I like how you ignored the 90% case in order to nit pick at the other 10%. Good posting.
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Post Post #883 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:42 am

Post by Hopkirk »

Rereading BTD now. I thought he’d subbed in, didn’t realize he was here from the start.

The slight scumread on Cheeky without a vote reminds me a bit of Chip’s reluctance to put a vote down. Maybe scum wanted to avoid making enemies. Still seems like on odd catch up in terms of what it’s lacking. Doesn’t take any particularly strong stances until 507, but explains why.
As I said before, the contradiction hunting stuff makes sense on the assumption BTD missed Cheeky’s sub out/back in thing. Looking back, it seems slightly weird he’d have missed it given his Cheeky interaction. Plus I don’t like that I had to ask him to respond several times.
Still don’t see the problem with the votecount where BTD/Chip are the only ones not voting. This makes BTD less likely scum imo since they had opportunity and incentive to form a counterwagon if both scum, and didn’t.
I didn’t/still don’t like how quick BTD was to clear Cheeky. It seems like he automatically assumed there’d been what would have effectively been a severe mod error (clearing a slot), so I don’t see why he has a problem with Micc asking for clarification- since that seemed fully reasonable.
UC dying kind of helps BTD since UC was voting/fully pushing BTD. Still doesn’t seem optimal though.
Main reason is still Chip being somewhat defensive of BTD, and BTD not talking much about chip and not voting him in the end, which seems more likely than a bus in this setup.

As an unrelated point, the action policy is even worse than I thought.
‘Additionally, if an ignite were win the game, there would be no die roll.’
Since scum shouldn’t know an ignite would win the game.
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Post Post #884 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:44 am

Post by Hopkirk »

In post 879, Micc wrote:Sure, we disagree on ethics. Let's never play in each other's games again and agree to drop this line of conversation.

You're scum for everything I talked about in 856. Your push on me is part of it too but more so from a standpoint of scum have to make bad pushes and your push is bad. Finally, I don't want you in lylo because I know I wouldn't be able to lynch anyone else no matter how much I reconsidered.
Surely most lylo's would contain Cabd, and the third person would be confirmed scum at that point.
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Post Post #885 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:46 am

Post by Cabd »

While this is very entertaining watching the mutual death tunnel, it would actually be super helpful if you two could lay out towncases for everyone else.
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Post Post #886 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:53 am

Post by Hopkirk »

My problem with the UC kill is that UC was a likely mislynch. If he hadn’t died then I would have continued voting for him.
As I said before, I also don’t see why Micc wouldn’t just ask Lycanfire to say in thread what his process was by pm during the night. There’s no reason for scum Micc to ask Lycanfire to clarify in the thread instead of by PM.
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Post Post #887 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:55 am

Post by Micc »

In post 881, BTD6_maker wrote:Indeed, scum would generally make better pushes than Town would, because they have the extra information of knowing everyone's alignment.
But yeah this goes against everything I believe about mafia theory and the fundamental point of the game.
In post 881, BTD6_maker wrote:Your last point makes no sense. Are you saying that you don't want me in LyLo because you don't think you can push a lynch on anyone else except me? What are you trying to imply here?
I consider myself a very good lylo player. Part of that is being able to reconsider the entire game and distinguish what matters and what doesn't. If you and I were in lylo together I feel like I wouldn't be able to utilize the strongest aspect of my game which is not fucking up in lylo. Id auto vote you in a heart beat and not think twice about it.
In post 884, Hopkirk wrote:Surely most lylo's would contain Cabd, and the third person would be confirmed scum at that point.
The lylo where we mislynch here and scum choose not to ignight is 4 player with cabd as confirmed Town. I think that's at least as likely as the alternative.
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Post Post #888 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:58 am

Post by BTD6_maker »

In post 882, Micc wrote:I like how you ignored the 90% case in order to nit pick at the other 10%. Good posting.
I was going to go after that later.
In post 856, Micc wrote:I'm leaning towards BTD right now as well. 750 is a mess of a post but it caught my eye when looking back. There's a lot of evidence of BTD and Chip defending each other's stances, and some decent pressure being put on BTD from UCV. The pressure on BTD from UCV possibly explains the ignition on Night 2 despite not being the optimal path to victory for scum.

I Townread Chip. I thought their arguments made sense. Indeed, I still do think that they made a lot more sense than Papa Zito's arguments against them. There's no reason why scum cannot make good arguments and Town cannot make bad arguments. There is also no reason why Town cannot be deceived by scum - after all, if Town were never deceived by scum, we would expect a 100% Town win rate.

As for the ignition on Night 2, igniting wouldn't simply be "not the optimal path to victory for scum". It would also, or so I thought at the time, clear CheekyTeeky, and that would be devastating for me. I would have a chance, but it would be very slim indeed.

Is all of this your point about 750, or is your point about 750 a different point? In the latter case, please go into a lot more detail.


The votecount on post 494 is interesting.
Spoiler:
In post 494, Lycanfire wrote:
VC 1.6Image
The flight is departing.


Leading Wagon:
BTD6_maker (3) - Hopkirk, Micc, Papa Zito
northsidegal (2) - UC Voyager, CheekyTeeky

Micc (1) - Cabd
CheekyTeeky (1) - northsidegal


Not Voting: BTD6_maker, Chip Butty

With 9 alive it will require 5 votes to achieve a lynch.

Day 1 will end in (expired on 2017-10-29 19:07:10)

Mod notes:
CheekyTeeky has reclaimed their slot.
UC Voyager replaces TheThawClown! Welcome, UCV.

From here there's some response to the pressure from BTD that I don't think any of us were happy with then gets down a Cheeky vote and goes away for a while. Next comes the interactions between Chip and Zito which lead to Chip's flashwagon and eventual lynch. I can see that being Chip trying to move the wagon from BTD to Zito, but I'm not sure that really fits. NSG would be the easy counterwagon at that point, but maybe it wasn't viable for Chip because he had her as pretty town at this point.

Of course, I scumread CheekyTeeky at the time. I don't think you are making a point against me here. If you are, please explain in more detail what your point against me is in this paragraph.
So here is the "90%" case. There is a lot that needs further detail.

PEdit: Of course LyLo would very likely contain Cabd (unless they have just been primed). The hard part is actually getting the person you know is scum but Town as a whole doesn't lynched. If Micc thinks that they can lynch me then surely they would want me in LyLo.

PEdit: Do you think scum generally make worse pushes than Town? If so, do you have the statistics to back it up? If not, the reasonable position to take would probably be the "null hypothesis", which is that alignment has no effect on quality of pushes. The fundamental point of the game is not that scum will make worse pushes than Town.
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Post Post #889 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:58 am

Post by Micc »

In post 885, Cabd wrote:While this is very entertaining watching the mutual death tunnel, it would actually be super helpful if you two could lay out towncases for everyone else.
Does 'I've reread day 1 three times and I still can't wrap my head around either Hopkirk or Zito bussing there' work or am I going to actually pull out quotes ?

Ehh didn't read the pre edit.
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Post Post #890 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:59 am

Post by Cabd »

In post 885, Cabd wrote:
While this is very entertaining watching the mutual death tunnel, it would actually be super helpful if you two could lay out towncases for everyone else.
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Post Post #891 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:03 am

Post by Micc »

Uhh, I'll add that you're confirmed Town because role. My question still stands.
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Post Post #892 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:08 am

Post by Cabd »

Yeah you'll need to pull quotes.
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Post Post #893 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:12 am

Post by Micc »

Well I'm going to need a computer for that so come back later tonight and I'll have it.
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Post Post #894 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:16 am

Post by Hopkirk »

'Do you think scum generally make worse pushes than Town? If so, do you have the statistics to back it up?'

Quality of a push is subjective. What kind of statistics would you consider legitimate?
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Post Post #895 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:13 am

Post by BTD6_maker »

In post 890, Cabd wrote:
In post 885, Cabd wrote:
While this is very entertaining watching the mutual death tunnel, it would actually be super helpful if you two could lay out towncases for everyone else.
It's not really a death tunnel on my part. I don't consider Micc to be certain (or near-certain) scum, just a candidate for scum.

I have already said my Towncase on Papa Zito. Other than that, there's just Hopkirk and to be honest I don't have much of a Towncase for Hopkirk at the moment. They are another plausible candidate. Hopkirk and Micc need more analysis. So does Papa Zito, for that matter.

Quality of a push is subjective, but I would start by looking for things like whether the push contains logical fallacies, misrepresentation etc. Those are bad pushes (at least, when they are the only reason) regardless of whether the target is Town or scum.
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Post Post #896 (ISO) » Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:14 pm

Post by Micc »

Spoiler:
In post 425, Hopkirk wrote:Not much point leaving my vote where it is when it’s waiting for a replacement.
VOTE: BTD6

– Gives light scumread on Cheeky, doesn’t follow it with a vote, and promises more content later.
- Two days later. No further catch up. Follows up slightly on Cheeky but no vote. Complains about activity (kind of ironically).

Don’t really like the entrance. Both those posts look longish, but have no significant content in them. I could very easily see the Cheeky vote as a bus.
Our story starts here. Cheeky and Sobelov slots are being replaced. BTD has recently returned from lengthy V/LA. The game's stalling out and desperately needs some life injected to it. Hopkirk doesn't like the BTD entrance and goes to vote him over the empty Cheeky slot. Town points for Hopkirk for a) understanding that wagoning empty player slots is a waste of time and b) identifying the need for a BTD wagon to pressure him about his entrance and keep the game moving.
In post 427, Micc wrote:Yeah, im on board with this.
VOTE: BTD6_maker
Second vote on BTD.
In post 438, Papa Zito wrote:Aight I read the things. This game is surprisingly dense.

Cabd is a big fat liar and I wanna see my file. Where do I send my FOIA request.

VOTE: BTD6
Third vote on BTD and also Zito's entrance to the thread. Being his entrance he's pretty free to take whatever direction is best for his team if he's scum. Not really any associations with Chip so not alignment indicative in that sense. Later he acknowledges that town reads on Hopkirk and I influenced this vote. This becomes the start of a strong [hopkirk, micc, zito] voting block.

This wagon sits at three votes for a while. BTD responds a couple times but isn't impressive. Chip and Zito exchange opinions, and then we get to this point:
In post 527, Papa Zito wrote:
In post 525, Chip Butty wrote:Nopes again. You don't get to ask questions while blowing off questions from others. You haven't contributed anything except that naked vote on BTD. How am i supposed to townread you based on that?
So here's your problem my friend. You've casually insinuated a few times now that my actions are "scummy" without actually giving any backing to the claim. And I've given you ample opportunity to do so. Just to be clear, I'm not asking so you can convince
me
, I know what my alignment is! But if you actually well and truly believe that I'm doing vague and mysterious scummy things then your reaction should include things like:

1. Voting me
2. Asking others to vote me; pushing a wagon
3. Pressuring me into answering questions
4. Examining my iso and voting history in detail
5. Putting forth a case

My issue is that you've done none of these things. Instead what you've done is:

1. Throw shade at my slot
2. Complain about my behavior
3. Refuse to explain basically anything

I came in with a pretty strong scumread on your slot, so when you presented the opportunity to engage I took it and you've failed spectacularly. Nothing you've done in reaction to me has been townie. Instead you've tried to take advantage of my nonstandard behavior by throwing shade to erode the townpoints my predecessor gained without actually committing to it with a vote or writing down a stance I could debunk. Doing that would pin you down into a 1-on-1 that you're not sure you want because you don't know how good a player I am or how good my reads happen to be.


@Micc:
Are you done with BTD or do you still have things to hash out with that slot?
I don't think this is bussing. If it was bussing then Zito as scum is abandoning a strong wagon on BTD before it's run its course in order to run up his partner. There's just no incentive to do that when BTD was perfectly lynch able at that time.
In post 528, Cabd wrote:VOTE: chip
In post 530, Micc wrote:VOTE: Chip butty
Good votes ^
In post 531, Hopkirk wrote:'So here's your problem my friend. You've casually insinuated a few times now that my actions are "scummy" without actually giving any backing to the claim.'

This is exactly how Chip was acting with his read on me earlier too. Like it even less now it's a pattern.
VOTE: Chip

Still want BTD's response to my response on his response.
I don't think this is bussing either, although that read is less strong than the Zito one. Hopkirk's not priced into joining this wagon. He's had NSG, cheeky and BTD all above Chip on his lynch list. There's nothing stopping him from opposing this wagon if it would defend his scum buddy. Instead he joins the wagon and we are eventually rewarded with a scum lynch.

It's possible either Hopkirk or Zito is scum looking to buy a little town credit or distance by being on this wagon before getting off. Lets see if they take the opportunity to get off the wagon before it goes through:
In post 559, UC Voyager wrote:
intent to hammer in 12 hours
Welp that's a big flashing light to get off you're scum buddy's wagon if I've every seen one. Especially given that this is essentially UC's entrance to the game and wanting to slow down because of that would have been perfectly reasonable.

I can't pick out a single quote that encompasses Zito's lack of interest in getting off the wagon, but he interacted with Chip for nearly two pages so he had plenty of time to turn his opinion around if that's what he wanted.

Hopkirk didn't post until after the hammer. That doesn't really tell anything about whether he was looking to get off the wagon. It's possible that he was looking to get off. Hopkirk town read is a lot less strong because of this.

Ill add to this that I think hard bussing is suicide because of how swingy the endgame numbers are. My case on Zito being town for not bussing is stronger than it is for Hopkirk, but I think both are valid. Also I kinda rushed this so it's not exactly as detailed as it could be.
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Post Post #897 (ISO) » Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:13 pm

Post by Cabd »

Tomorrow
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Post Post #898 (ISO) » Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:36 am

Post by Hopkirk »

'Hopkirk didn't post until after the hammer. That doesn't really tell anything about whether he was looking to get off the wagon. It's possible that he was looking to get off. Hopkirk town read is a lot less strong because of this.'

I made several posts when I thought it was L1.

Strongest evidence I can provide to demonstarte I thought it was L1: If there's a few pages of new posts then my playstyle is to post as I read (90% of the time, unless I'm looking offline on my phone and see there's only one/two new posts), rather than waiting until I'm done reading. Here's an example of me explicitly saying that as town viewtopic.php?p=9267535#p9267535 but it's pretty obvious that's how i post in most games (town or scum).
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Hopkirk
Hopkirk
Jack of All Trades
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Hopkirk
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 8699
Joined: July 24, 2013
Location: Britain

Post Post #899 (ISO) » Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:39 am

Post by Hopkirk »

'Quality of a push is subjective, but I would start by looking for things like whether the push contains logical fallacies, misrepresentation etc. Those are bad pushes (at least, when they are the only reason) regardless of whether the target is Town or scum.'

Hence, using 'give me detailed statistics of something that's very difficult to collect since it requires very in depth reading' is a bad counterargument to use since nobody is going to do that. That's putting the burden of proof unrealistically high in order to dismiss something, which sounds like a fallacy in itself.
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