Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

[sheepsaysmeep]

newbie 1829 ended so i'll be putting in more effort here now

[Yuria]

I clearly stated to not be cced in one of my posts but Yuria doesn't know how to read rofl

You don't claim if you don't wanna get cc'ed. You wanna try to eat a bullet learn to soft claim or lead on dumbass. You don't make up shit to get people off your back.

Get lynched already

[Transcend]

You're the dumbass here but k

[DeasVail]

IceGuy(4) - boring, kelbris, Ectomancer, Transcend
Transcend(4) - Yuria, IceGuy, havingfitz, mutantdevle
boring(3) - Luca Blight, mutantdevle, Fishythefish
sheepsaysmeep(1) - Rem

not voting (1) - sheepsaysmeep

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch
(expired on 2017-11-12 15:00:00)

I’m voting boring btw.

Also I don’t think I want to lynch Transcend

[davesaz]

IceGuy(4) - boring, kelbris, Ectomancer, Transcend
Transcend(4) - Yuria, IceGuy, havingfitz, mutantdevle
boring(3) - Luca Blight, DeasVail, Fishythefish
sheepsaysmeep(1) - Rem

not voting (1) - sheepsaysmeep

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch
(expired on 2017-11-12 15:00:00)

[boring]

@deasvail - is Iceguy town to you? Or am I a stronger scumread?

[DeasVail]

I think you're more likely to be scum, yeah.

[Fishythefish]

So. Interpretations of Transcend's claim:
1) He's town, who wanted the jailkeeper to protect him or to draw the night-kill in a high-risk gambit.
2) He's town, guessing a PR who he hopes isn't in the game to survive
3) He's scum, happy to swap his life for a jailkeeper
4) He's scum, faking 1) in a high-risk gambit.

Facts/opinions around Transcend's claim:
a) Transcend was not that likely to be lynched (<50%, certainly)
b) Transcend doesn't

seem

overly paranoid about being lynched
c) Scum would be quite likely to shoot a claimed jailkeeper.
d) Transcend seems like he wouldn't be averse to a high-risk gambit.

In light of those:
1) seems plausible
2) seems unlikely
3) seems unlikely
4) seems plausible. It would be a cool scum gambit: if the jailkeeper comes out, you kill them and

might

survive. If the jailkeeper doesn't come out, you no kill and hope to "confirm" yourself.

I don't see 1) and 4) as particularly easy to separate. The payoffs for Transcend are:

Alignment	If no JK	If counterclaimed and lynched	If counterclaimed and not lynched	If JK plays ball
Town	OK	Very bad	Bad	Very good
Scum	N/A	Bad	Very good	Good

So it's maybe a slightly better scum gambit; but also harder to think of ('cos your gambitting pretending you're gambitting).

@Transcend wagon:

why do you think scum-Transcend claimed JK?

@People who play mafia on here more than once a year:

how strong is the meta around lynching liars these days? What odds would Transcend have put on getting out of the lynch if he was counterclaimed?

[DeasVail]

I like your post and had very similar thoughts, except that I found 1) to be significantly more likely than 4). I'm not very familiar with the meta around lynching liars though, due to not playing much myself.

[DeasVail]

Regarding boring, I think this is the vote that I'm going to be advocating. I still have strong concerns from Elmo's play that are still very much there on a re-read. Boring's posts do cause me to question my read on the slot, but I do have some suspicions. I worry that the initial suspicion on Luca Blight was an attempt to "scumread" a non-easy target, rather than a legitimate scumread. I also don't like the posts implying that her chances of seeing Day 2 are slim, and the talk of scum on her wagon. But, these things are admittedly weak and there are things in boring's posts that I like too.

Despite the waffliness of the above, I think boring is the best lynch. I'm willing to discuss alternatives, but I may not agree.

[Fishythefish]

I agree that boring is the best lynch. The way the wagon is coming and going and usually being rather townish makes me think the scum don't like it.

Any particular reason you don't think TranscendScum would pull this gambit?

[Transcend]

Just lynch ice or boring

[DeasVail]

I agree that boring is the best lynch. The way the wagon is coming and going and usually being rather townish makes me think the scum don't like it.

Any particular reason you don't think TranscendScum would pull this gambit?

It’s not impossible, but I lean towards no because of how unnecessary it was for Transcend scum considering the lack of danger and high risk of the gambit. Again though, not impossible.

[Yuria]

Y'all are forgetting scum know the prs, so a townie claiming one at random risks obvious problems at Mass claim later with no benefit since they would know the townie is lying. There's no reason for a townie to do it unless they're not thinking at all. I really can't believe him to be that senseless and he can't be allowed to live for long.

[sheepsaysmeep]

Y'all are forgetting scum know the prs, so a townie claiming one at random risks obvious problems at Mass claim later with no benefit since they would know the townie is lying. There's no reason for a townie to do it unless they're not thinking at all. I really can't believe him to be that senseless and he can't be allowed to live for long.

there's no reason for a scum to claim knowing he'll get cc'ed if you follow that logic :/
policy lynch is last resort

[Yuria]

Sure there is, drawing out a PR for someone who was already under suspicion is a fine trade. Better than risking no night kills later.

[Transcend]

You guys are town reading me for really fucking dumb reasons btw

[Ectomancer]

Power roles are chosen from (Innocent Child, Tracker, 1-shot Cop, Jailkeeper, 2-shot Vigilante)

Alright, time to break out the role speculation and try to apply it to our current situation. Earlier in the game wasn't the time for it but I think its time we brought it out for discussion. There are nuances to power combinations that frankly I don't feel I could chart out and so yes, this is going to dip into meta. Scummy I know, but if I don't know it then others don't know it and I would prefer to do it while the greater percentage of input comes from town.

Scum got to choose 3. Which? My picks would be the following:

Innocent Child - Power is a mod reveal of their town status but an early reveal isn't advantageous. Choose and hope for a quick lynch or night kill.
1-shot Cop - Single reveal of their targets alignment but an early investigation isn't worth as much as a later one if revealed. Choose and hope for a quick lynch or night kill.

Of the remaining:

Tracker can confirm the 1-shot Cop if lucky.
2-shot Vig is more than a random element and there are certain mafiascum players I would be stressed about having 2 kills as town.

We've had a claim and counter-claim to JailKeeper and so that seems to be the 3rd role.

So I think that we lynch neither JailKeeper role claim. Either they target scum making the kill and both are alive tomorrow, or one is dead and we lynch the other. If a Vig exists, stay away from these two.

Well that wasn't a total breakdown but its enough to start. Ya'll elaborate.

[DeasVail]

Ecto, how did the first part of your post help you get to your conclusion? I don’t see it really.

[IceGuy]

Why is Transcend not dead yet?

[Transcend]

because you're just scrounging for a lynch rather than lynching who you think is mafia rofl

sorta like you've done with ehhh EVERY SINGLE FUCKING VOTE YOUVE MADE THIS GAME

[kelbris]

prodge, got my brothers over for the weekend.

[Fishythefish]

Sure there is, drawing out a PR for someone who was already under suspicion is a fine trade. Better than risking no night kills later.

But... is it really a fine trade? As scum, with one of 2-3 of competing top wagons on you, would you claim to out a JK? I sure as hell wouldn't.

I do think people need to think a bit harder about fakeclaim=>lynch when a) scum have two gifted fakeclaims and b) it definitely wasn't a claim-or-die situation.

[IceGuy]

Considering his behavior on this game day, do you want to see him around in LyLo?

[Fishythefish]

@Ecto: Transcend has claimed his claimed was a gambit - so Yuria is the real JK. (Or, I suppose, Yuria is scum who knows there is no JK in the game)

@IceGuy: probably not. But I think lynching him for that reason is fairly low information. Transcend would make a great vig target.