Open 700: Donner Party - ENDGAME

[Porkens]

...

[Gödel]

math was in one of my newbie games i replaced into and helped we with some game theory stuff

still thinking about your claim and who was killed and norths post but i posted cus I was excited math was here

[MathBlade]

I am gonna have sads if three townies died.

I really think that two or three townies died. Just need to look at key here and make a judgment call on that.

With three kills and limited activity afterwards implies killers active. North side gal leaving this out of the assessment makes me really scared about north.

VOTE: North

[northsidegal]

It felt right to burst on to the thread in a really obvious/over the top way. I didn't thoroughly read the setup, and knowing that the sk had nightfall immunity would have changed strategy. But by then I had already committed.

to tell you the truth i townread that rationale pretty hard. how would knowing the sk has 1 shot bulletproof change your strat, or is that rolefishing / better left unsaid?

to tell you the truth implies northsidegal has something to hide. I want them to say everything they wanted to say..

i don't put a lot of weight into "slips" or just linguistic quirks like that, and i don't think you should either. i said "to tell you the truth" because although i would think that either to other people or just looking at it on a surface level porkens' reasoning is rather weak, i've seen people use that exact same strategy as scumhunting before and i recognize the reason

why

it makes sense.

I am gonna have sads if three townies died.

I really think that two or three townies died. Just need to look at key here and make a judgment call on that.

With three kills and limited activity afterwards implies killers active. North side gal leaving this out of the assessment makes me really scared about north.

VOTE: North

could you explain this a bit more? if i'm not wrong we have 48 hour night phases and i'm pretty sure this one was made even longer by the lack of a replacement. why would the killers be active just after the night ends if they had 48 hours to submit their kills?

[Porkens]

I want to go ahead and get in on discussion and figure things out.

okay, i'm going to start with some analysis just so i can wrap my head around this and try to get back into this game.

so, three people died tonight, with none of them flipped. that means that everyone who could kill did - mafia, the serial killer and the vigilante. given the serial killer's 1 shot bulletproof, not only do we know that the serial killer is still alive but we also know that

nobody has even targeted the sk

. given the fact that nobody flipped and also that if two killers target each other they'll both flip, we know that no two killers targeted each other, although it's possible that a killer was targeted by another killer.
three people died and although we know that the serial killer is still alive, we don't know how many scum vs town died. it's possible that no scum were hit and it's also possible that the entire scumteam is dead with just the serial killer left - in the worst case scenario we are currently 3/5 scum to town, in the best case 1/7.

still thinking about the motivations behind killing the people who died, that's to follow.

In the bold, we don't know if nobody targeted the SK. There is a roleblocker, and he/she could still be alive. If he is alive and he targeted the Serial Killer, then that's a possibility in itself, since the SK is also 1-shot Roleblock immune. So, the bold is slightly inaccurate, but it could be interesting to think about.

preliminary thoughts:

why was transcend killed? for that matter, why was almost killed?

these are the two main questions i've been turning around in my head. i ask these specifically because i find them unexpected as choices, whereas keychain being dead doesn't come as a huge shocker to me really.
which kill came from which killer? there were three deaths, so which one came from scum, which one came from the sk and which one came from the vig? thinking about this should help to explain the motivations behind the kills.
the three people who died were all in somewhat of a scumreading triangle - keychain scumread almost, almost scumread both keychain and transcend, and transcend scumread keychain.
transcend and almost were among the most active players in the game, with keychain being the outlier. probably not relevant now but it'll be useful to consider if vote count / nightkill analysis ever becomes relevant.
looks like almost got what he wanted from back in 187.

Keychain being killed, not really a big surprise to me either, but in the bold here, there are some theories.

A: Almost or Trans were too town for Scum or SK to be lynch bait, so they killed them off.
B: Trans or Keychain could have been targeted by Vig for being a bit too scummy.

So, with that said, Trans is the only one which could be killed by anyone. Almost was more than likely killed by Scum or SK due to being too town, and Keychain could have been shot by the Vig or SK.

I'll look through the ISOs of all of these players, and hopefully there are some connections.

VOTE: pmysterious

Ill invite you if you find the three crummy things you said here.


I don't not sr methodical at all. Switchblade I'd not understand why you do

[Porkens]

Not_Mafia*
Assemblerotws*
havingfitz - sheepsaysmeep
northsidegal
PMysterious
Gödel
MathBlade - Elmo TeH AzN
Porkens - Maki Harukawa

Looks like no Robocop.

I'd like the following people:
Nsg
Mathblade
Porkens
Not mafia
Havingfitz

To choose a lynch from this pool:
Godel
Pmsteryous
Assembler

[Not_Mafia]

Hmmmm

[Porkens]

Hi

[MathBlade]

It felt right to burst on to the thread in a really obvious/over the top way. I didn't thoroughly read the setup, and knowing that the sk had nightfall immunity would have changed strategy. But by then I had already committed.

to tell you the truth i townread that rationale pretty hard. how would knowing the sk has 1 shot bulletproof change your strat, or is that rolefishing / better left unsaid?

to tell you the truth implies northsidegal has something to hide. I want them to say everything they wanted to say..

i don't put a lot of weight into "slips" or just linguistic quirks like that, and i don't think you should either. i said "to tell you the truth" because although i would think that either to other people or just looking at it on a surface level porkens' reasoning is rather weak, i've seen people use that exact same strategy as scumhunting before and i recognize the reason

why

it makes sense.

I do and sometimes don't. If the player is a more "off the cuff" type player who rapid posts and is very much stream of consciousness I let it go. However your posts take a lot more of an analytical stance which means since you're much more of a careful player I do consider it for your posts.

I am gonna have sads if three townies died.

I really think that two or three townies died. Just need to look at key here and make a judgment call on that.

With three kills and limited activity afterwards implies killers active. North side gal leaving this out of the assessment makes me really scared about north.

VOTE: North

could you explain this a bit more? if i'm not wrong we have 48 hour night phases and i'm pretty sure this one was made even longer by the lack of a replacement. why would the killers be active just after the night ends if they had 48 hours to submit their kills?

It's more I don't see a person being inactive hopping off doing a kill then not posting in game. That's in very poor taste. This means that of the likely players this means that they are at least active pre and/or post flip. I don't see scum just mystically disappearing after a kill. In my experience that hasn't happened from scum. So since we have three kills submitted then why disappear after you got what you wanted. Scum would need to maintain that control. Hence scum are much more likely in the actives rather than the inactives. Especially with vocal voices like A50 and Transcend dead.

[MathBlade]

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

[MathBlade]

So a huge if but if I'm right and Almost50 was town vig then Almost50 almost certainly shot Key.

This means the Transcend and Almost50 kills were scum and the SK respectively.

This means that Transcend and Almost 50 were fear kills.

[northsidegal]

It's more I don't see a person being inactive hopping off doing a kill then not posting in game. That's in very poor taste. This means that of the likely players this means that they are at least active pre and/or post flip. I don't see scum just mystically disappearing after a kill. In my experience that hasn't happened from scum. So since we have three kills submitted then why disappear after you got what you wanted. Scum would need to maintain that control. Hence scum are much more likely in the actives rather than the inactives. Especially with vocal voices like A50 and Transcend dead.

i can see what you're saying regarding the second part of your post but for the first part you haven't really given a really good reason, so i still disagree. when it comes to the post count or activity point though, you came to the opposite concusion that i did. two of the three dead were among the most active posters, so rather than scum attempting to dominate the conversation themselves i think it's far more likely they want to take advantage of the lurkers. it was even noticed yesterday how so many people hadn't really added a lot to the game, so to me it seems like scum are either in within the lurkers or setting the lurkers up for the fall, and either way they're attempting to use the lack of activity to their advantage.

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

i responded in 185 and let me tell you - even if i was scum i wouldn't be scared of almost's attempts to push my lynch.

[northsidegal]

So a huge if but if I'm right and Almost50 was town vig then Almost50 almost certainly shot Key.

This means the Transcend and Almost50 kills were scum and the SK respectively.

This means that Transcend and Almost 50 were fear kills.

porkens has said that she hard claims vigilante - did you miss that or do you not believe that?

also, a few other things. one, why do you assume almost would shoot keychain and not transcend? he scumread both of them. second, do serial killers typically make kills out of fear? i don't have a lot of experience with third parties but i would think that, contrary to mafia's typical motivations, serial killers would be looking more to just survive. while that would suggest they'd shoot someone liable to lynch them, i think in this situation specifically it'd be more likely they'd shoot looking for the vig.

[MathBlade]

It's more I don't see a person being inactive hopping off doing a kill then not posting in game. That's in very poor taste. This means that of the likely players this means that they are at least active pre and/or post flip. I don't see scum just mystically disappearing after a kill. In my experience that hasn't happened from scum. So since we have three kills submitted then why disappear after you got what you wanted. Scum would need to maintain that control. Hence scum are much more likely in the actives rather than the inactives. Especially with vocal voices like A50 and Transcend dead.

i can see what you're saying regarding the second part of your post but for the first part you haven't really given a really good reason, so i still disagree. when it comes to the post count or activity point though, you came to the opposite concusion that i did. two of the three dead were among the most active posters, so rather than scum attempting to dominate the conversation themselves i think it's far more likely they want to take advantage of the lurkers. it was even noticed yesterday how so many people hadn't really added a lot to the game, so to me it seems like scum are either in within the lurkers or setting the lurkers up for the fall, and either way they're attempting to use the lack of activity to their advantage.

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

i responded in 185 and let me tell you - even if i was scum i wouldn't be scared of almost's attempts to push my lynch.

I didn't say Almost50 was pushing your lynch and so you shot him. I said that's what happened with scum.

I said Almost50 was a fear kill from scum. So you're probably the SK then. Got it. Cool.

Pedit: I don't believe that and I strongly believe it to be a joke either that or Porkens is scum.

Pedit again: Almost likely shot keychain because it is a common vig trope to vote who you are gonna shoot. It's a verifiable bread crumb later.
Second: It depends. Mainly in a game like this yes. If they feel they can't survive they have to kill the person pushing them sometimes. It depends on the competency of the player killed. Despite Transcend's and my style of play differences Transcend is regarded as a good player same with A50. That makes them much more likely fear kills.

pedit 3: Or that if they saw what I did but then only newb group scum would push the vig. SK wouldn't want attention.

[MathBlade]

If I'm still alive tomorrow which i doubt because i reckon both sk and mafia will kill me let's double team Keychain

With Transcend and Almost50 both suspecting Key I'm pretty damn certain Key was scum.

[MathBlade]

So then mainly what I need to do is a minor vote analysis in that specific point to see why a Key wagon didn't pick up and what specifically got vocal around that timeframe.

(Oh and FYI I love flipless scum do stupid shit in flipless...I'm actually halfway decent town in a flipless...Shhhhhhhhh apparently it's a big mafiascum secret and I like am sucky or something)

[northsidegal]

I didn't say Almost50 was pushing your lynch and so you shot him. I said that's what happened with scum.

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

so if that's not what you're saying, then what exactly are you saying here? your sentence is a little hard to understand. even more, it's not exactly a huge leap to look at you mentioning me possibly intentionally ignoring something and the reason why almost died in one sentence and to take it that you're implying i killed him.

[northsidegal]

If I'm still alive tomorrow which i doubt because i reckon both sk and mafia will kill me let's double team Keychain

With Transcend and Almost50 both suspecting Key I'm pretty damn certain Key was scum.

is that just an argument from both of them being good players? besides, almost's scumread on key was predicated on the idea that transcend was also scum. if you take it that both of them suspecting key makes her scum you would also be saying that transcend was bussing his partner. which, ironically he said in 261:

Because I'm bussing my shit partner lol

of course, it's possible that one of them was the serial killer and so even though the scumread was predicated on trasncend being scum, they still could've been a part of different factions. that idea doesn't hold up, however, because we know that the serial killer hasn't died.

[MathBlade]

I didn't say Almost50 was pushing your lynch and so you shot him. I said that's what happened with scum.

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

so if that's not what you're saying, then what exactly are you saying here? your sentence is a little hard to understand. even more, it's not exactly a huge leap to look at you mentioning me possibly intentionally ignoring something and the reason why almost died in one sentence and to take it that you're implying i killed him.

I said it was a possibility. Not the likely probability. I still suspect you as being the SK. Group scum is a possibility but not as likely.

I was referring to almost50 being the vig most likely. There's a hugely blatant vig crumb there and I'd be very much surprised if anyone else is actually the town vig. Mainly I'm trying to ascertain whether you generally missed it or whether or not you're scum/SK and pretending. Especially when I suggested fear kills and then said "hey probably not that probably because they were the vig" despite me offering no reasoning why and most people on the site call my role spec crazy. (Although recently I've been on a streak with that. See the newbie game I recently IC'd and we lost because well newb town decided not to listen lol and I have to work on my influence skills)

You can't both say you missed the vig and say that's why A50 was killed in the same breath.

It's either A50 is a fear kill or A50 was killed for being the likely vig.

[MathBlade]

If I'm still alive tomorrow which i doubt because i reckon both sk and mafia will kill me let's double team Keychain

With Transcend and Almost50 both suspecting Key I'm pretty damn certain Key was scum.

is that just an argument from both of them being good players? besides, almost's scumread on key was predicated on the idea that transcend was also scum. if you take it that both of them suspecting key makes her scum you would also be saying that transcend was bussing his partner. which, ironically he said in 261:

Because I'm bussing my shit partner lol

of course, it's possible that one of them was the serial killer and so even though the scumread was predicated on trasncend being scum, they still could've been a part of different factions. that idea doesn't hold up, however, because we know that the serial killer hasn't died.

First of all on the second paragraph the idea that Almost could be thinking Transcend is the SK doesn't hold up is bad. Almost could have had thought that and been wrong. However here I doubt it. Almost to be quite honest I don't think has enough experience with Transcend to read him. The simple answer is: if he's antitown and annoys you he's town just ignore him til he tries to be nice. {{Transcend if you read this I'm sorry for if this comes off rude but not the main point....}}

Furthermore, no I wouldn't. That actually makes Transcend town with a scumread on Key.

Transcend hard claimed scum in mini 1900 and I tunnelled him literally to a town loss for it. He jokes around claiming scum all the time and it pisses me off. He was trying to goad almost50 into voting key who he genuinely thought was scum.

[Porkens]

If a50 was the big, the person he ate would flip.

You have one more post before to turn yourself around.

[MathBlade]

Not_Mafia*
Assemblerotws*
havingfitz - sheepsaysmeep
northsidegal
PMysterious
Gödel
MathBlade - Elmo TeH AzN
Porkens - Maki Harukawa

Looks like no Robocop.

I'd like the following people:
Nsg
Mathblade
Porkens
Not mafia
Havingfitz

To choose a lynch from this pool:
Godel
Pmsteryous
Assembler

Your pool sucks and needs cleaning.

My pool is North you and NotMafia and assemble. However the latter two baaaaaaaaaaaaaarely have their fingers in and that's because they haven't done jack and could be scum lurking but again that's in so poor taste I only want to go there if I townread literally every other player.

[MathBlade]

If a50 was the big, the person he ate would flip.

You have one more post before to turn yourself around.

If a50 was the vig, his flip gets sucked by whoever shot him. Hence no flip. His shot would go to the cannibal who killed him. Ask the mod.

[northsidegal]

First of all on the second paragraph the idea that Almost could be thinking Transcend is the SK doesn't hold up is bad. Almost could have had thought that and been wrong. However here I doubt it. Almost to be quite honest I don't think has enough experience with Transcend to read him. The simple answer is: if he's antitown and annoys you he's town just ignore him til he tries to be nice. {{Transcend if you read this I'm sorry for if this comes off rude but not the main point....}}

but i'm pretty sure almost didn't think that - he stated quite clearly that he thought i was the serial killer and that transcend was mafia.

Furthermore, no I wouldn't. That actually makes Transcend town with a scumread on Key.

Transcend hard claimed scum in mini 1900 and I tunnelled him literally to a town loss for it. He jokes around claiming scum all the time and it pisses me off. He was trying to goad almost50 into voting key who he genuinely thought was scum.

not entirely sure what you're trying to say here or what question you're responding to. i was just quoting transcend to prove a point - using transcend and almost's scumread on key to say that she was scum requires that you also think transcend was scum. you're trusting almost's read on keychain but then not trusting his read on transcend (which is what his keychain read was based on) for seemingly no reason.

If a50 was the big, the person he ate would flip.

You have one more post before to turn yourself around.

wouldn't this only be the case if a50 targeted the person who also targeted him? otherwise, don't his kills go into the person who killed him's larder?

[Porkens]

u r right.

But I'd like both of you to stop arguing with each other and give reads on other players.

I am not joking. I am the vig. Believe it.