Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[Micc]

Yay we're finally getting this started.

VOTE: chippy butty

[Micc]

Why aren't yall helping to wagon the guy who planted his RVS vote on a player who is replacing out and then disappeared from the thread?

[Micc]

In your opinion what's the purpose of RVS?

[Micc]

Why do you feel the need to wait for other people to start building cases? What's wrong with you being the one to get the game rolling?

[Micc]

Its purpose is to end as quickly as possible. Building cases seems like a much better way to find scum than cracking witty jokes.

I don't know why you want everyone to prove their existence before RVS can end. Isn't that what the confirmation stage is for?

[Micc]

Uhh I guess so? I have a pretty strong opinion about how this part of the game is supposed to go and expressing it usually fulfills my ultimate goal of getting the game started.

[Micc]

I'm trying to discourage votes that don't help us get out of RSV. RVS voting an empty slot is explicitly not helping the game leave RVS and I'd like to wagon you for doing it.

[Micc]

Micc, if we are going to get all serious, it seems to me that that slot has as much chance of being scum as any other, so why would it matter that RC was replacing out? Are you trying to discourage votes on that slot?

No, I'm just stating how unproductive it is to be voting an empty slot at that stage of the game.

if you're saying that rvs voting an empty slot doesn't help leave rvs because it doesn't draw reactions the same way that rvsing a player who's in the game does, shouldn't your own reaction to that prove that wrong?

I don't think so. By that logic one could argue that self voting is a productive way to end RVS and I don't agree with that at all.

Well, if somehow I do get lynched, look for scum on my wagon. There's only 8 available votes, and there are 5 needed to lynch and I can't see 5 town voting for this RC thing. Or even 4, really...Gotta go...

So who of Cheekyteeky, Micc, and nothsidegal is most likely to be scum on your wagon?

[Micc]

Oh are we done. Okay. Let's talk about how micc just skipped over my entrence entirely?

You haven't really done anything interesting at this point so that's where I'm at.

So who of Cheekyteeky, Micc, and nothsidegal is most likely to be scum on your wagon?

although that's a valid question on its own i think he was talking more generally about the idea that he'd be lynched just for the placement of his rvs vote and how scum would have to be on that wagon if it went trhough. i don't think specifically he was calling any of those three scum.

I guess we will just have to wait and see what Chip says Chip meant instead of what northsidegal thinks Chip meant.

[Micc]

You're the one that should fee bad. If you've made an analysis post that references four different quotes - chances are you aren't in RVS anymore.

[Micc]

rude!! we're still sort of in rvs so i don't feel bad about this!VOTE: micc

Really tho. what's up with this vote northsidegal?

You're clearly analyzing the game at this point and thus not in RVS anymore...but I was being rude so I get a vote...and its ok because RVS?

[Micc]

now i've got two trs and one of them isn't cabd

This seems to imply you got a town read on Hopkirk from post 38. Can you explain that one please?

[Micc]

uhh neutral I guess. If I felt like I already had a read off of it I wouldn't be digging into it by asking questions

[Micc]

pagetop!

micc, it was a mostly random vote but now it's a serious one. what do you think about that?

I think if youre serious about your vote you should be stating a case to convince the other players in the game to join you in forming a wagon.

That's very "Switzerland" of you lol. I think your logic is bad though. You can have expectations prior to receiving a response, and get a better read by digging asking questions. I assume that you already have a read on me then, since you're not digging and asking me questions?

Sure, if I was reaction testing it would make sense that I should have expectations prior to receiving a response. But this wasn't even a reaction test. I'm just legitimately curious what northsidegal was trying to do with the vote. Like, I got snarky because she was interfering with my line of questioning on Chip. Yet her questioning seemed like an attempt at engagement. I didn't want to shut that down so I reached out again by asking about the vote, but she's clearly not interested in engagement at this point. Guess I probably answered my own question and it was a reaction test. Regardless she's not getting town points from me until she explains the vote or explains the reaction test.

nothing from you has struck me as awkward or scummy enough to begin questioning. I guess that makes you a town lean but in truth it just means that I haven't begun to try and sort you yet. ill get there at some point tho. I promise.

[Micc]

I'll aknowledge the meta argument when you provide analysis of quotes from games of mine as each alignment.

But like, I tried to engage you about your vote in posts 85 and 96. Forgive me for getting snarky again with post 102, but posts 85 and 96 were my response to your vote...and then you just brushed them off. If you followed my advice and posted a case I would have gotten to see why you're vote changed to serious and posts 85 and 96 are exactly me "pressing you for an oddly timed RVS vote". Like what gives?


Pretty sure these are the only scum games I've played besides marathons. I'm looking forward to the meta analysis regarding my mechanicalness.
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=59974
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=38065

[Micc]

What NSG said.

...and that's why it's rude to answer questions that aren't aimed at you.

@Chip: How is "If I get lynched there is likely scum on my wagon" a useful post if you don't even have an opinion about who the scum on your wagon is? Can't literally anyone who gets lynched make that argument and have it be true more often than not?

[Micc]

I realize the creator of this setup is here, but my itch to try and break setups will never truly go away.

sup. For what its worth I wrote the set up with no self protect, but according to the role pm's it is allowed in this game. That might affect possible breaking strategies. I'll have to think on it as well. I remember being pretty confident there were none in the original setup but I don't have or remember any of that analysis.

VOTE: northsidegal
you don't get to admit that you made a bad vote and then still leave it on all while ignoring the posts I made that showed how bad of a vote it was. Also, where's that meta analysis?
l-2

[Micc]

I remember coming to the conclusion that just being a named townie was as much if not more powerful than the actual protection ability. Named townie guarantees town either a confirmed player or a 1v1 counterclaim at some point in the game. Self protection does guarantee the protection role won't get nightkilled before claiming if they go that route. the quickest path to victory for scum isn't to ignite part way through the game tho so I don't think it's high impact that the protection role can guarantee it survives to "Lylo"

[Micc]

now i've got two trs and one of them isn't cabd

This seems to imply you got a town read on Hopkirk from post 38. Can you explain that one please?

yea i thought that his questions in 38 meshed a lot with what i was thinking when i read those posts which indicates a towny thought process. it wasn't a super strong read at the time but its been strengthened by his recent posts as well

ftr my other tr at the time was chip but when i entered the game the wagon on him was pretty much the only thing happening and i wanted to see what happened with it

has your opinion on chip butty changed as his wagon fell apart? the lack of traction for the wagon meant there was less pressure than I would have liked. I'm left feeling like I don't have a read on him because of it.

[Micc]

sorry, i wasn't clear again. me voting you initially wasn't entirely serious. my vote as it stands now is where i want it to be. let's look at the sum total of your contributions this game: you threw a little fit over someone's rvs vote and then you threw a little fit again over my vote on you. i hope i'm not making the mistake of letting how much i dislike you cloud my judgment, but i don't think i am.

Well, I think ive refuted the points you made regarding the seriously serious vote and I think this post unfairly mis represents my contributions to the game thus far. Do me a favor and seriously think about my play and ask yourself what is likely to come from town/scum and why. If you decide that youre scum reading me solely because you don't like what I'm doing or how I'm doing it then back off. If you really think I'm scum bring the evidence to the table. Right now I'm trying to decide if I caught scum you pushing a bad case or if youre town that is confirmation biasing herself because she doesn't like my approach to the game.

it's hard to display in quotes how natural you sound in one game as opposed to the other

and thus why I think this argument doesn't hold water. Its pretty clear that you decided my posts look "awkward" and went into my previous games in order to find evidence that proves to yourself that its alignment indicative. As Cabd can attest to, it takes A Lot of time to make a legitimate meta argument. And if you're going out to find the evidence after you have your hypothesis then your doing it wrong.

has your opinion on chip butty changed as his wagon fell apart? the lack of traction for the wagon meant there was less pressure than I would have liked. I'm left feeling like I don't have a read on him because of it.

eh he's still a tr. i thought his response to his wagon in 56 was fairly towny. it was a lot like how i reacted to being wagoned early in my first newbie game although given his join date i'm a little less inclined to tr it than i would if he was a newbie.

i wish he would contribute more but i'm most interested in hearing btd's thoughts rn

could you expand on post 56 please? that's the post I picked out as pretty useless to make as town and questioned him further on. Is there a reason a newer player wouldn't have this type of reaction as scum? for me it doesn't seem like the kind of thing that needs to be said if he's town and as scum he would likely be using it to discourage the players on his wagon from staying on it any longer.

[Micc]

resignation to being lynched is more townie amongst newbies than not imo. especially trying to give advice for where to look for scum post-flip since scum doesn't really care what town does after they're lynched - they just want to stay alive - while town does.

for example in my last game we wagoned scum early d1 and they responded by being much colder than they were early game

Spoiler: quotes

You have misrepresented my conclusion and are continuing discussion of game mechanics after others have stated that's a bad idea. I find both of those approaches questionable at best.

You went from discussing mechanics yourself to saying that approach is questionable pretty quickly. What specifically changed your mind?

Sobolev and kittycap's exchange on page 2.

I gave a logical progression from point to point to conclusion, but you stripped out the qualifier in your recap. When I called you on the change you said you hadn't added anything to my conclusion, but in point of fact you subtracted from it. Why?

That is what I did here, but Green skipped my qualifiers and presented it as me making a black and white statement. I appear to being getting heat for what he said rather than what I actually wrote, which is super confusing to me.

meanwhile the newbie townie that we wagoned d1 seemed like they kinda gave up and resigned themselves to being lynched eventually and expressed similar frustration to chip as to the case on them:

Spoiler: quotes

If you guys are set on lynching me that's fine. if there's any questions anybody wants to ask before I'm hammered, feel free.

I was surprised to see him at the top of her town reads.

why not ask her about it? Does this affect your read on Sobolev? You said she was a top town read, why haven't you tried to reach out and get her to townread you?

It kind of affected my read, but overall I've seen her as town this whole game. I don't know exactly what you mean by reach out to her to change her mind. All I've done this game is post my honest thoughts and don't really see why my posts are "bad in iso." It seems the tone of the game has drastically changed on the last page which has been pretty confusing for me.

i didn't realize chip was as experienced as he was however, so the i'm not tring these as much as before

how much consideration have you accounted for regarding the time left in the Day? Looks to me like BlueBlake was at L-1 with 12 hours left in the Day and Sunlit Diamond went to L-2 on page 4. One player was basically 99% to be lynched that Day and the other maybe 25%. Transitioning back to this game I think its silly for anyone think that Chip was in danger of being lynched on page 4...and with that in mind its more likely that he was trying to dissolve his wagon instead of give sound advice to the town.

[Micc]

This is just my second micro and the first finished well over a year ago. I'm just not used to the idea of 5 being enough to lynch on d1, and i was a bit startled that i had 3 seemingly just from the RC thing. It just felt like i was getting railroaded and i want to draw people's attention to it since i wasn't going to be around to defend myself.

So you think there was a reasonably high likelihood of you being lynched in the 10 hours you said you'd be gone...less than 48 hours into the game...and before you claimed?

what do you think of him now? do you buy his last post?

no. I don't buy it at all. I want to keep pushing and if there's support for his wagon ill gladly switch my vote.

[Micc]

I'm flattered you think i would cook up the ingeniously villainous idea of voting for RC just to drag out RVS a bit longer, but if you go back and read the post you're fixating on, you'll see it says 'If somehow i get lynched...' That indicates i think it is low probability but am saying jic. And it's not like people don't do idiotic things in Mafia.Can we go back to RVS? I feel like we missed out on a proper RVS thanks to your no-fun-allowed policy...

Its not like you've made my point invalid with your play tho... You're most recent vote is still the RVS vote on RC/Cabd. Your contribution to the game thus far is primarily reaction to other players having questioned you and complaining of my playstyle. There is some posts pushing at Cabd but nothing that resembles a case or a reason that you think he's scum. I guess I'm still not convince you've jumped into the game yourself at this point.

Re post 56: but what are you contributing to the town by saying there's likely going to be scum on your wagon if you get quicklynched on page 4? Looking for scum on mislynch wagons is a level zero scumhunting strategy that no town needs to be reminded about. I especially have a problem with your defense given that the equivalent of a vanilla townie in this game gets treestumped upon being lynched and can come back and say whatever they wish the following day.

[Micc]

The setup isn't anything too complex, I will note we will NOT get flips night one; and no-lynching in this setup is almost always the wrong move.

This is what we're analyzing?

Everything before the semicolon is just fact, and everything after the semicolon is fact for anyone who is town. I guess you must be picking out the word "almost" and trying to argue that that its a scum slip because the only reason to use that qualifier is if your alignment is scum.

...I must be missing it still cause that'd be a weak thing to argue as a scum slip

[Micc]

also, 5 days is a heck of a long time for a guy who has posted in the game twice to vla for. pls post over that time or replace out.

[Micc]

If the thing is to actually dive into this game then yes pls do. everytime I go to try and read you here I get reminded of newbie 1516 and I don't want a repeat of that game. I know there were reasons for your disengagement to that game that aren't present here but if feels like you're headed down the same path.

[Micc]

yeah idk. I spent some time thinking about it the other night but it never felt like it was going anywhere.

when x=100 we get 1 confirmed town to lylo. when x=0 we have the least amount of information of any value of x. Clearly 100 is the best value of x to get the most for sure confirmed town players. but theres some value of x between 0 and 100 were the scumteam decides the risk is worth it to target the protection role. I would think its just 100percent dived by 7 town players but ehh maybe that's not the right way to look at it?

im at work. I can't guarantee immediate responses until im done in ~4 hours but I will be checking in. things are running good and I have time to check in at least every 30 min

[Micc]

not that the term lylo is ambiguous in this setup because in most cases neither town nor scum know if an "ignite" will end the game.

[Micc]

note*

[Micc]

bah this is why you don't allow self protection in mafia. ive attacked it from a bunch of different angles and my conclusion is that publicly announcing a value of x just gives scum information they wouldn't otherwise have. There is some amount of room for WIFOM about whether you're actually following the announced strategy...but when it comes down to it there are lines of play for scum to navigate all values of x when the value of x is publicly announced.

so do what you want and don't tell us. I think?

[Micc]

northsidegal, what you up to?

I feel like we both want to sort each other but that isn't going to happen if you don't want to talk.

[Micc]

i've been a little but busy but i've also been thinking a lot about this game. the more thought i give to the issue the more i think it's possible i'm reading through the thread with the goal of trying to make you scum in my mind to fit some narrative rather than objectively looking at things. for the sake of both the town and myself i think it's counterproductive for me to keep going with it, so for now i think what i'm going to do is just try to focus on other people.

Cool beans. I can work that.
UNVOTE: northsidegal

The lack of ability to build momentum on any wagons so far this game makes me want to look for scum in the lower activity players. At the same time I'm conflicted because I generally view parking a vote on a player for lack of participation as a waste of time.

[Micc]

Also I'm home and eating food right now so cabd if you want to hammer out this breaking strategy I'm game. Your going to have to provide the inspiration tho because I'm not coming up with anything productive on my own.

[Micc]

I mean yeah NSG's approach to this game has been very weird; but can somebody explain why it's SCUM-weird?

yeah that's where I got hung up as well.

how do you feel about what I said in post 229? ive got a lynch pool of kawso, BTD6_maker and hopkirk and then chip butty and northsidegal are on the second tier.

[Micc]

She dropped pretty far since your reads list in post 165 despite just making one post. can you explain that?

[Micc]

Yeah I can see that. your push lines up decently with what I was pushing her for. I unvoted to give her room to focus on other players which is what she said she wanted to do. She's not really taking advantage of that right now.... and with other two players in prod range and yet another on MEGA-VLA the game's stalling out...and she's still voting me?

idk. Im just gunna chill out and hope everything's all better by the time I get home from work.

[Micc]

What are you thoughts on Cheeky?

She's not in my lynch pool right now. I guess that makes her a default town read.

Micc do you have some town games I could look at please?

Micc > Profile page > view their topics > take your pick. Any game thread that wasn't started by me is probably a game I played in. All but two if them I'll be town.
search.php?author_id=22688&sr=topics

I mean yeah NSG's approach to this game has been very weird; but can somebody explain why it's SCUM-weird?

yeah that's where I got hung up as well.

how do you feel about what I said in post 229? ive got a lynch pool of kawso, BTD6_maker and hopkirk and then chip butty and northsidegal are on the second tier.

micc can i convince you to vote for kawso. like i get he's been lurky but i just don't see at all how a townie comes back to the game, sees 4 new pages and just makes 107 with a garbage explanation for a vote. its like he's just searching for reasons to vote so he's at least doing something without actually engaging in the game

Im gunna reply to everything aimed at me in the thread and then go back and reread a bit. if I don't have inspiration in any other direction ill join you but it'd be like 99% a policy lynch because Im not even going to bother trying to get a read based on two posts.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

I haven't had an opportunity to sit down and digest the last few pages yet so this is still where I'm at:

Spoiler:

ive got a lynch pool of kawso, BTD6_maker and hopkirk and then chip butty and northsidegal are on the second tier.

Micc's work rate has definitely dropped off...

I had a little chuckle. got stuck doing the work I actually get paid for 3 hours past the end of the shift last night. so yeah, it didn't feel like a drop off to me.

[Micc]

Spoiler:

We've got Cabd as doc, BTD6 as v/la, and Hopkirk and Kawso in need of a prod. I also don't really want to lynch a lurker but I'm not yet getting any super scummy vibes among Micc, SS, CT, and NSG.

Of those four I'm finding Micc to be townest mainly because he refused to be fobbed off when burrowing on 56, even though i didn't give the answer he wanted right away. I think scum would probably have pretended to be satisfied and moved on more easily. However, of he is operating at the level of designing setups, we are probably screwed if he is scum.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

[Cabd]
[SS, CT, NSG]
[Micc
[Hopkirk]
[]

*Not enough input: BTD6, Kawso

Chip, why are you opposed to lynching a lurker today? What happened to cause me to drop to the bottom of the [micc, SS, NSG, CT] group?

[Micc]

well I appreciate the respect but I hardly see how having designed an interesting open setup makes me a talented scum player, and I especially don't see how it makes me scummy in this game.

activity wise, I had a rough night at work and slept the whole next day. im here now. lets chat

[Micc]

No, I'm not interested in wagoning anyone who's not here. That's never productive. I kinda want to wagon you because it still bothers me that it never got traction the first time.

Let's talk about Hopkirk. He's your lowest read of the players with more than two posts. I have him moving above you because I liked a lot of things he did in his catch up. What's your read based on?

[Micc]

It looks to me like he's actively pushing a wagon on a player he thinks is scum. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by penetrating, but in a game where more people aren't voting than are voting I'd say there evidence that he's got an opinion and he's pushing it. Do you agree?

Im not saying I don't think he can be scum. I'm just saying that voting him isn't gunna make him talk. At some point he'll post or be replaced

[Micc]

VOTE: Chip butty
Well none of that moved me away from wanting to see this wagon happen. I don't like his trajectory on me. He moved me from towniest among the active slots to being null simply by not posting for a day. I thought the creater of the setup thing was a joke at first but he reemphisised it without anyone else bringing it up and I can't see why he's letting that have an impact on his read.

My understanding of his point against hopkirk is that hopkirks reads are superficial and or lack deep analysis. Not only do I disagree with that I think I could accuse Chip of that same thing. Seems like more of his reads are activity based than anything else which I see as very superficial.

[Micc]

I could quote every post hopkirk has made that is either a) actively pushing a wagon on a player he thinks is scum or b) questioning a player in order to develop a read. I could then do the same for you. His list would be significantly longer.

Second paragraph is just being unnecessarily cryptic. I'm over here perfectly willing to engage you, my largest scum read, in conversation with an open mind and thats what you give me. It's like going down my Facebook feed and seeing all the click bait shitty news articles. "You'll wont believe what Micc did - whole player list now thinks he's scum!" Follow thirty different links to find out more!

[Micc]

I wasn't badgering you during the period of the game where my work rate decreased was I? It's not like you locked in a target and started pushing a wagon. You keep complaining about not much happening in this thread but I don't see you actively trying to fix it. That's the irony is see.

Also the case has built beyond what it was on page 1. Stop pretending like it hasn't.

[Micc]

I haven't seen anything from Sobolev that made me want to push him so he gets to be a default town read.

[Micc]

Sobolev is scum leaning Hopkirk too, yet you have no problem with that?

Nope.

@Micc: Given your keen interest in Hopkirk assessments and progressions, how did you fail to notice this?

I missed it because I don't have a keen interest in Hopkirk assessments and progressions.

Also the case has built beyond what it was on page 1. Stop pretending like it hasn't.

The 'case', as you call it, seems to amount to this:

1. A joke RVS vote on a guy who was replacing out.
2. Post 56, where you failed to notice all the content.
3. We differ in our assessment of Hopkirk. Yet you don't question at least one other who shares my assessment.
4. I downgraded you a notch, and you don't like the reasons stated so far. Yet you don't comment on the unexplained Sobolev progression on Hopkirk.
5. I haven't apparently been gamesolving enough for you, perhaps because like i said I've spent most of my time in this game responding to 1-4. I mean, show me where anyone has come up with a solid case on anyone in this game.

The case is that:
1. There is no town motivation behind your post 56, just the scum motivation of trying to disband your wagon.
2. I think the trajectory and reasoning behind your reads are unnatural and have bad logic.
3. You aren't voting, don't have a primary scum read, and don't appear to be doing anything to change that.

And is this an admission that you have been badgering me the rest of the time? Interesting that you introduce the term badgering which i didn't.

"Badgering" is the equivalent of "pushing" in my opinion. One's a little more in line with the festivities of central Wisconsin on a college football Saturday so that's what I went with.

But yeah. I was pushing you before and then I stopped and now I'm pushing you again. I will admit to that.

[Micc]

No town motivation behind 56???

I was saying if i got lynched there was a high likelihood of both scum being on my wagon, effectively narrowing the field to 5. How is that not town motivated? I've already pointed this out.

Btw, for the record, which of 1-5 do you currently stand by? And, again, is there anything else you want to bring?

Yes, you pointed that out. And I responded to it in 154 and 164 among other posts. I agree we've done this dance already. We don't need to continue fighting over it, but my opinion hasn't changed and I'm obligated to bring it up when you ask me to state my case.

I literally made a numbered list. I'll go on record for standing by the things on my list. If I had more things they would have gone on my list.

Re 327:
I'm not pushing you for scum leaning Hopkirk. I'm pushing you because I think your reasons for scum reading Hopkirk are poorly analyzed and look like fake reasons. That's not how I feel about Sobolev's reasons which is why I'm not pushing him.

We could flip this around and talk about your assessment of non Hopkirk players and it wouldn't change how I feel. I already gave your read on me as an example and could do the same for your read on now essentially confirmed town Cabd if I wanted to.

Yeah I pushed you because your progression sucked. You moved me down three spots on your reads list because I hadn't posted for like 30 hours. If I noticed other players with read progressions as unnatural as that I'd question them for it too.

Predit:
Geez it doesn't end. Let me grab my laptop so I don't have to try and quote stuff on my phone

[Micc]

Speaking of progressions, you've gone from having Hopkirk in your lynch pool here (above me, I might add) to thinking, apparently, that he is towny. Please detail specifically what changed your mind in the intervening 7 (if i counted correctly) posts.

Sure.

Spoiler:

The lack of ability to build momentum on any wagons so far this game makes me want to look for scum in the lower activity players. At the same time I'm conflicted because I generally view parking a vote on a player for lack of participation as a waste of time.

This is where I started on my hopkirk read.

VOTE: North

This the vote Hopkirk already had in play.

This kind of conflicts with the previous post, given you imply it's not enough for

you ]/i] to go off of there.

This is your first posts after the one i brought up earlier. Firstly, it doesn't fit with you saying the purpose of RVS is to get out of RVS, and it sounds like you're going for more RVS rather than going with what their was.

More importantly, I don't get why you didn't vote Cheeky, given your suspicion of their interaction with Cabd.

The 'you're not my biggest scumread' doesn't match up with the explination that it was a post about him, not Cabd. I wouldn't find this very significant is you hadn't said you were voting Micc as RVS, and I can't see why you'd do that.

Secondly, you explicitly imply you have scumreads with the phrase that cheeky isn't your biggest scumlean.
If Micc/Cheeky are not these scumreads then it's very unclear who is, I don't know why you'd hide it based on your desire to move things on, and your vote makes no sense.
This is the most significant point on a reread.

Conclusion: Buddying up to a lot of people, not really attacking/pressuring anyone. Some conflicts in terms of says/wants/does. Biggest points of consideration are the confusing voting on Micc, the unresolved issues i have with the cheeky/Cabd thing, and the other scumreads.
Read progression on Micc could would be townish if the first thing was resolved.

These are posts that Hopkirk has made that show him either building or pushing a case on the player he thinks is scum. I moved him above you on my reads list because I think building and pushing cases is a town thing to do and I think the majority of his analysis is natural and has sound reasoning.

Let's talk about Hopkirk. He's your lowest read of the players with more than two posts. I have him moving above you because I liked a lot of things he did in his catch up. What's your read based on?

And this is where I ended up with my read on him.

I could quote every post hopkirk has made that is either a) actively pushing a wagon on a player he thinks is scum or b) questioning a player in order to develop a read. I could then do the same for you. His list would be significantly longer.

Because scum never do these things, right?

They do if they are trying to act like town. What's your point? I don't think Hopkirks push is fake. I do think what little amount of pushing you have done looks fake. I don't know how many different ways I can try to explain or show examples of that.

[Micc]

ehh, that's certainly possible. doesn't mean i'm going to stop pushing tho.

Kawso has been prodded.

Lycanfire, do you have an update on this? It's been nearly five days now since he last posted.

[Micc]

Probably like 5

[Micc]

Nah, you can run pretty much anything you want in the micro queue with one game of moderation expierence as long as people will sign up for it. Not too long after I first ran it, the setup won one of the categories of an open setup design contest and got put into the wiki and now it gets ran every once in a while. It's cool and all - I'm certainly proud of it, but I wouldn't even say I'm the most accomplished moderator playing in this game.

So why does this matter again?

[Micc]

oh man. it took cheeky two sentences to explain what I've been trying to say for three days.

Can we get an actual wagon on Chip yet? That and some catchup posting from LUV/BTD would do wonders for this game right now.

[Micc]

Yeah that's fine and dandy with me. I don't think I've done anything but respond to your questions or call for other players to join your wagon since I voted you. So yeah, do your thing.

And because I'm not sure if those questions are rhetorical or not, the two sentences I was referring to are quoted below. They summarize the second and third bullet points of the case I made in post 326 quite nicely.

...I've just noticed that a few of your posts mention that this game is confusing and that everybody else is confused also. That in combination with, what looks like, you unsuccessfully trying to game solve, leads me to believe this is more of an act than not.

[Micc]

cheeky I don't understand what your problem with hopkirk is. He clearly had northsidegal as a larger scum read than you. That's why he made a 5 post case on northsidegal and voted her instead of making a 5 post case on you and voting you. He only switched to you after you called him out on things that are explicitly not true and then refused to engage further with him when he tried to explain why you were wrong.

predit: well I didn't read that and I have to go back to work

[Micc]

where'd you respond to northsidegal's points? I'm admittedly trying to understand where each of you are coming from on this one and I don't see it.

With regards to Hopkirk, what thing is there to do? You can't blatantly misrepresent what someone's saying then refuse to engage with them when they take issue. There's no master plan buried deep down in that.

Northsidegal, can you try and summarize your case against cheeky in three sentences or less? I get bits and pieces of 400 but im having trouble seeing how it all comes together to make cheeky scum.

[Micc]

Well I guess ill just sit here and wait to be enlightened.

[Micc]

well that's unfortunate

[Micc]

Do you want me to give you room engage with other players or not? I'm making a conscious effort to let you do the things you say you want to do. Yet these snarky posts about how I'm treating you unfairly keep coming out of nowhere.

I'm sorry that I scum read you and that pressuring scumreads through wagons is how I play the game. If I thought being unnecessarily obtuse was evidence of Cheeky being scum I'd be pressuring and calling for a wagon on her. But I don't so I'm not.

[Micc]

Well, I knew the nature of the setup was prone to creating apathy, but damn we can't even get past day 1...

[Micc]

Let's start with these:

Have you read the game?
Who do you want lynched today?

[Micc]

Yeah, im on board with this.
VOTE: BTD6_maker

[Micc]

I moved my vote because your wagon is the biggest wagon of players who I have in my lynch pool and this game desperately needs a meaningful wagon.

Can you explain how Hopkirk's post is contradiction hunting? He didn't use the word contradiction or even compare anything as far as I can tell.

[Micc]

@Micc: Do you have any opinion on 424 then? I was wondering whether that contributed to your scumread.

Yeah, you don't give any reads without qualifying that they are weak. 424 shows no interest in doing anything proactive to get reads that aren't weak. And it took us over a week to get that much out of your slot.

[Micc]

Hedging on reads early helps scum because it makes it easier to transition into reads that further their game plan as the game continues. As town hedging on reads just makes it harder for everyone else to get reads. Not being proactive stagnates the game and helps scum by creating apathy.

If you have weak reads I'd expect you to do something to get them stronger. Best I can tell you haven't even analyzed 90% of the game.

[Micc]

I never took issue with the idea of checking for town vs scum mindset tho
/confused

[Micc]

I meant hedging in the sense that every read youve given has had the word "weak" attached to it.

How can you be avoiding confbias regarding reads you don't even have yet. Like as far as I can tell you havent read a single post made my northsidegal or Chip bitty or Sobeov/Zito slot. Can you say something about your read on them so far.

[Micc]

I'm pretty busy this weekend. Going to try and post but might not find the time till Sunday night.

[Micc]

You made a fair point about not reading Northsidegal, Chip Butty, or Sobolev/Zito. It is true that I haven't analysed any posts by them. That is what I will be doing.

So how's this going for ya BTD?

I'm going to go back and reread everything from over the weekend since I've only been skimming and post more later tonight. I don't remember seeing anything ecpecially interesting besides BTD's continued lack of analysis on half the players in the game.

[Micc]

Isn't TheThawClown your alt? What happened on that one UC?

[Micc]

Ok, so when you replaced in earlier you read the thread or no?

[Micc]

So that's a no? Kinda wierd to me to have the slot that long and not have started the catch-up process already. Regardless, looking forward to seeing what you have to say.

[Micc]

I'm all caught up from the weekend. Cheeky has me kinda weirded out with the whole thing about Hopkirks case on northsidegal. I think I buy what she's saying but I want to go back and fact check how everything went down when I have more time tomorrow. Hopkirks analysis continues to line up almost identically to mine which I like. Chip butty continues to be some type of fascinated with or bitter about me and no one else which I still don't think makes sense if he's town. I was town reading Sobelov and I like where papa zito vote is so Im kinda ok letting him be unimpressive but I can't see that lasting forever. Northsidegals posts aren't memorable which brings up concerns for me as I write this out - hopefully look at that more in the morning.

[Micc]

Seriously Chip. Put a vote into play.

Predit: haha, haven't you realized that Chip's go to method of reading people is that activity=Town, any sign of lurkyness=scum and absent=null.

[Micc]

@Micc: Are you done with BTD or do you still have things to hash out with that slot?

I'm not really done or satisfied with what came out of pushing BTD, but if this is you asking whether I still want the Chip butty wagon I've been calling for all game then consider me on board.

VOTE: Chip butty

[Micc]

Sweet L-1 flashwagon yall. Now we're going places.

Chooo chooo

[Micc]

Oh, and I'd REALLY be interested in hearing why Micc is willing to sheep onto such a weak-ass vote on BTD.

Okay, I think we're rolling now, at long last.

Still want an answer to this please, Micc...

I switched my vote to BTD because it made his wagon the largest of players that were in my lynch pool. I had hopes that doing this would a) help me get a better read on him through pressure and b) jumpstart a game that was becoming stagnant. I thought I had made that pretty clear, but maybe not. I'll leave you to explain why my answer to this matters.

[Micc]

I think it matters in the light of PZ's unsupported vote on BTD, and interactions between you and Hopkirk. Especially now that you're all on my wagon. I'm pretty sure I've caught PZ in a lie there btw. And ibdid get the largest wagon part from what you said. But do you really think BTD is scum? I'm not feeling it.

Ok, well I'm not sure what the lie you caught papa zito in is, but I could have missed it. Yeah, I think BTD could be scum. I'm not certain of it by any means, but that's what wagons are for and as I've shown, I'd support a wagon on him if it happened.

Micc, why aren't you demanding more from Papa? I know he is in the SS slot but sure the contrast must have struck you?

Sure, I noticed that he was a somewhat cryptic about the reasoning behind his reads when he entered the game. But I was town reading his slot, and now that he's expressed his reads and they line up very well with mine and that we seem to be at least mildly town reading each other...so yeah I'm comfortable with what he's doing.

[Micc]

but he literally quoted the exact sentence for you Chip....

[Micc]

Chip, lets talk UC Voyager. You seemed pretty set on waiting for him to make his entrance before settling on a vote, yet you haven't commented on his intent to hammer and subsequent vote on you. What are your thoughts?

[Micc]

I think, given recent revelations, PZ is null or null town for now. I feel better now i don't have to resolve what looked like a big gap in townness between SS and PZ.

This weirds me out. I still can't follow the read progressions. He was so insistent that Zito give his reasoning and UC Voyager give a catch-up. Then his thoughts about UCV's catch-up now that it's happened and not gone in his favor are basically "ehh whatever....and oh yeah he should explain his vote on me also". I don't like that he's now moved the player he's voting to null Town. We're back to where we started with him generally complaining about having no scum reads and him continuing to do nothing about it. I like my vote.

[Micc]

I'm familiar with UCV's play. He's sometimes impulsive and logic isn't his forte. I thought giving 12 hours notice of intent was restrained by his standards.

Like, in what world are you holding out on pursuing scumreads so that you can hear from a player who you have this kind of meta opinion on?

[Micc]

VOTE: northsidegal
Choo choo goes the wagon

[Micc]

you know its an open setup right?

[Micc]

So..northsidegal wagon anyone?

[Micc]

Spoiler: reasons to wagon northside gal

i think if you want to get out of rvs so bad, this is the way to do it!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: chip l-2

This is easy no effort needed distancing. Northsidegal gets on the Chip wagon under the premise of helping pressure Chip and move the game out of RVS. Notice how she's not pushing Chip, just putting her vote on the wagon.

for what it's worth i don't care about the rc thing, i was just looking for some kind of reaction. i didn't really get a lot out of it but i suspect scum would probably care more about being near-lynch in the first 3 pages, so i guess that's some credit towards you.
UNVOTE:

And she's off. Notice how this post is made 3 minutes after Chips post 56. There very post I pegged him as scum exactly for caring about nearly being lynched in the first 3 pages - the very thing northsidegal is getting off the wagon for. Also notice how she's not moving to someone else, she's just getting off. The motivation is "I should stop bussing" not "I think someone else is scum".

Well, if somehow I do get lynched, look for scum on my wagon. There's only 8 available votes, and there are 5 needed to lynch and I can't see 5 town voting for this RC thing. Or even 4, really...Gotta go...

^Chips post 56 for reference.

So who of Cheekyteeky, Micc, and nothsidegal is most likely to be scum on your wagon?

although that's a valid question on its own i think he was talking more generally about the idea that he'd be lynched just for the placement of his rvs vote and how scum would have to be on that wagon if it went trhough. i don't think specifically he was calling any of those three scum.

I guess we will just have to wait and see what Chip says Chip meant instead of what northsidegal thinks Chip meant.

rude!! we're still sort of in rvs so i don't feel bad about this!
VOTE: micc

The interference with my push makes sense as defense of her partner. I've already explained how bad the vote was, but looking back it makes sense as continuing to defend her partner.

i'll be honest and say that i don't really have any strong scumreads as of yet. it could be failure on my part to distinguish town from scum, it could be that scum are blending in well this game or it could be that scum are lurking through. of the three i think the last is most likely.

UNVOTE:

Were have we seen this before? Oh yeah, every time we asked Chip to talk about his reads.

for you, your iso is pretty solidly filled with scumhunting. sorting people is what you've been doing since your first post in the thread, and it's always felt both reasonable and town-motivated. things like making sure people can't counterclaim later, no matter how obvious, i would think to come from town. in addition, you've been pressuring kawso's slot for inactivity which i see as town-motivated.

i guess you could call my read on chip more of a "tonal" read. especially from the early game interactions i get the sense that chip isn't actively trying to come off as being town, which is townie in my eyes. as of more recently posts like 168 and 242 seem to be geniuine efforts to examine the game from the perspective of determining the best move for town, which i would almost put above scumhunting on the "townie activities" list. any good scum player can probably fake a push on someone, but posts that step back, look at the whole situation and try to figure out the best path to take seem both harder to fake and less likely to be faked.

chip i'm still confident is town, not really understanding where others are coming from when they scumread him (as opposed to times where i can understand someone's argument about someone else being scum but not agree with them). perhaps i'm biased because i find myself agreeing with him often, however. my opinion in him is largely unchanged from 272.

micc i think is nulltown, if only because i find him kinda hard to read. i don't think i would be willing to lynch him today.

thoughts on btd6 and zito's entrances and the votes on btd6?

not really agreeing here. chip actually

has

done some of the things you're describing! as for pressuring you to answer questions, what do you call 523 and 525? you say that he's not examining your iso in detail, but that's pretty much what he does in 521. you could make the argument that he didn't analyze it in detail, but i would say that there wasn't really a whole lot to analyze. it doesn't make a lot of sense for chip to just suddenly start voting you and pushing your wagon just because he believes you've been scummier than ss was - the townread on ss still exists.

None of these reasons for town reading Chip are backed up with strong evidence or good analysis. They feel much more like fabricated reads intended to keep her partner out of trouble than genuine reads from a town player.

tldr: interactions with Chip make northsidegal look like scum.

[Micc]

northsidegal, what is there to conf bias? I spent 30 minutes looking back at the game after seeing the flip and concluded that your interactions looked like you were Chips partner. That's a pretty decent turn around from not having you in my lynch pool at the end of Day 1 so I don't know how you can think its confirmation bias. I'm not going to argue with you about how genuine your reads were on a player who has already flipped scum.

Lets talk about that Cheeky, UC voyager, BTD6 group. Who is the scum in that group in your opinion?

[Micc]

I had a post mostly written up and then got pulled away from the computer, but yeah 650 is good posting.

[Micc]

a lot of your reasoning on how my posts make me chip's partner come off as if you already started with the perspective of me being chip's partner and then used that to explain how my posts made sense in that context, rather than starting from a neutral context.

This isn't true in the least.

If you want to live past today I'd suggest you start actually doing some work instead of trying to pick fights with Extremely Likely Townies.

why does it matter to you, don't you think i'm scum anyways? i'm not trying to pick a fight with micc, i'm asking him to explain his reasoning on something i disagree on.

if you'd like me to make an analysis on chip's day one interactions i planned to anyways, maybe just give me a bit more time than a couple hours after the start of the day.

I don't know what there is to explain. I quoted a bunch of posts and gave the reasoning behind why I think they point to you being scum with Chip. I've given my burden of proof. Now it's up to you explain why you disagree.

[Micc]

UC, what are your thoughts on the northsidegal interactions with Chip that I quoted?

[Micc]

So by my count we need 2 more votes for a northsidegal hammer.

[Micc]

Are we really going to sit here and debate the merits of a day one scum lynch?

[Micc]

^ i don't get it

[Micc]

Saying words and criticising is not equal to a case. If you had actually paid attention to the interaction you'd know that all of zito's points weren't true. Chip was actually doing the things Zito said he should be doing as town.

You not seeing the hypocrisy makes me feel like you're not reading the game properly because you know people's alignments. Also you attacking BTD feels like a cheap push. Your hesitation to vote NSG makes me believe she could be town. One of you two are scum and it could very well be you.

VOTE: UCV

So you're saying you do want to debate the merit of the Chip lynch?

Why's UC getting the vote over northsidegal here?

[Micc]

Micc I like playing with you, hopefully you get how I work one day.

some people are easier to get than others you know.

Do others see what UCV sees in BTD6?

I can see where he's coming from.

[Micc]

I don't know what there is to explain. I quoted a bunch of posts and gave the reasoning behind why I think they point to you being scum with Chip. I've given my burden of proof. Now it's up to you explain why you disagree.

northsidegal, can you respond this please?

BTD could be scum but what makes NSG keep your vote Micc?

I like being a part of strong wagons.

[Micc]

NSG is another one who needs to get me. But it looks less likely that she will lol.

i do think you probably owe her an explanation tho. I mean I think i know what your trying to say but I can't understand why there's any reason to be cryptic about it.

[Micc]

the things she pushes you for in post 694.

[Micc]

She's not pushing, she's presenting a case, otherwise it would be directed at me instead of to the rest of you. I'm terrible at caring about cases on me, especially when I think they're coming from scum intent...but I will refute it because you asked Micc.

Well, was more talking about your posts 682 and 688 that she picked out as they relate to your playstyle that she doesn't "get". If you want to refute the case in 693 ill read it but I wasn't asking you to do that.

northsidegal, can you respond this please?

i think my point from 647 still stands. i don't think there's really a lot i can say regarding how you read my day one posts, except that you put a lot of grand strategy behind what i do that isn't really there. yeah, i voted chip and then unvoted him. it wasn't me bussing, it was me trying to move out of rvs. yeah, i answered your question to him - it wasn't interference with your push, it was me trying to clarify something that i thought you were misunderstanding. and again, i'm not alright with the reasons you've given as to how my reads weren't backed up by anything. every single one of the posts you quoted that show my reads have multiple posts referenced as support of the point i'm making. your "burden of proof" lacks proof - you didn't make any sort of argument as to how my reads lack evidence, you just stated it.

Yeah. I don't know where I thought this line of questioning was gunna go but I can see now that it's not going to be productive.

[Micc]

Ahh. Every time I find myself reading about gaming theory I find it fascinating but never actually get around to reading more about it.

Are you ready to talk about this wagon or are you waiting a bit yet?

[Micc]

UNVOTE:
For now. I haven't hit the aha moment that makes me think this is right yet and I'm getting cold feet. I don't want to do anything without talking it through with cabd/Zito/Hopkirk but it's not going to happen today because I'm kinda busy.

[Micc]

What do you wanna talk over?

I want to all be in agreement here, not just me pushing a lynch and everybody following which is kinda what it felt like. You seem to agree about northsidegal, Hopkirk didn't even seem to have her in his bottom 3 and Cabd is understandably keeping his cards close to his chest. The combination of UC's post on BTD and this northsidegal wagon not feeling right make want to slow down and reconsider. I just don't have time to read back until late tonight.

[Micc]

I'm going to read back through tonight. Haven't had a good chance to do that since right after Chip lynch and I want to be able to do it with an open mind.

[Micc]

You can't scum hunt without those things happening?

[Micc]

and that's because you think scum is between those slots or are there other people in your lynch pool?

[Micc]

everyone else except for ucv i am treating as town.

what are you trying to get out of this line of questioning?

just putting content in the thread that I can go back and make reads off of later. nothing different than I'm ever doing.

Walk me through UC. What makes you think he could be scum?

[Micc]

Alright, I'm back on the train. I read back and still think northsidegal's interactions with Chip look like they are partners. Her lack of comment or interest on UC voyager's case against BTD is evidence that she's not trying to sort UC despite him being present and in her lynch pool. Waiting for replacements to begin scumhunting is also the tell I've had the most success with across multiple games, so that's another thing against her.

VOTE: northsidegal

[Micc]

So if the game state changes and it affects your read then you explain what changed and why. If youre town then waiting is just a waste of time. If your scum it allows you to sculpt your opinions around those of the replacement in a way that furthers your game plan.

I'm not going to try and explain the reasons again when all you do is brush them as being generally weak. The hand wave dismissal isn't a defense and that's all I see as a response to the cases that have been laid out.

[Micc]

Having northsidegal flipped is also way more advantageous than flipped BTD in the event of a mislynch.

[Micc]

im gunna take the self vote as a concession. You can all do your things and hammer when ready but don't wait for me.

[Micc]

im gunna take the self vote as a concession. You can all do your things and hammer when ready but don't wait for me.

will you lynch yourself tomorrow for being wrong, just like me?

No

[Micc]

This clears CheekyTeeky's slot, for one.

Can you walk me through this one please?

[Micc]

And you're taking that with 100% confidence?

[Micc]

heh. If that reasoning is sound then given the game's already solved. I don't know whether to scum read you or not for getting most of the way there but not reaching the conclusion.

Mod: How would you handle an empty slot that had a night action to submit?

[Micc]

So... lets lynch the empty cheeky slot then? No one who understands the setup ignites last night.

[Micc]

yuck. I hate being influenced by the moderator as a player and I especially hate being put in a situation where I can influence the game when I'm the moderator. sucks for everybody.

[Micc]

VOTE: cheekyteeky
If this is somehow wrong I'm glad to know we'd still have a mislynch to give, but this feels pretty straightforward.

[Micc]

Couldn't we have saved just as much time by hammering 24 hours ago?

But, yeah I'm cool with whatever kind of short night the mod will allow us to take.

[Micc]

Somebody's got to either hammer this wagon or explain why we'd do anything else today.

[Micc]

Yuck. This always seems to happen when I get lazy.

Time to re-evaluate with an open mind I guess.

[Micc]

My lynch pool is down to Micc and Hopkirk, with Papa Zito as the outside chance.

Let's talk about this. Why's Zito the least likely to be scum out of this group?

[Micc]

Yeah, I'm asking you about that Town read. Do you still have it? Can you explain it?

[Micc]

I'm leaning towards BTD right now as well. 750 is a mess of a post but it caught my eye when looking back. There's a lot of evidence of BTD and Chip defending each other's stances, and some decent pressure being put on BTD from UCV. The pressure on BTD from UCV possibly explains the ignition on Night 2 despite not being the optimal path to victory for scum.

The votecount on post 494 is interesting.

Spoiler:

VC 1.6

The flight is departing.

Leading Wagon:
BTD6_maker (3) - Hopkirk, Micc, Papa Zito
northsidegal (2) - UC Voyager, CheekyTeeky

Micc (1) - Cabd
CheekyTeeky (1) - northsidegal


Not Voting: BTD6_maker, Chip Butty

With 9 alive it will require 5 votes to achieve a lynch.

Day 1 will end in (expired on 2017-10-29 19:07:10)

Mod notes:
CheekyTeeky has reclaimed their slot.
UC Voyager replaces TheThawClown! Welcome, UCV.

From here there's some response to the pressure from BTD that I don't think any of us were happy with then gets down a Cheeky vote and goes away for a while. Next comes the interactions between Chip and Zito which lead to Chip's flashwagon and eventual lynch. I can see that being Chip trying to move the wagon from BTD to Zito, but I'm not sure that really fits. NSG would be the easy counterwagon at that point, but maybe it wasn't viable for Chip because he had her as pretty town at this point.

[Micc]

You're accusing me of deliberately taking advantage of the moderator's role and influence on the game to advance my win condition. Please stop with that crap.

What makes Zito's pressure on Chip less likely to be bussing than mine? I was after him for the entirety of Day 1.

[Micc]

What makes Zito's pressure on Chip less likely to be bussing than mine? I was after him for the entirety of Day 1.

Just to be clear, I was looking for BTD to answer this. Not really sure it matters though. I've re-read and I don't have any interest lynching outside of BTD today.

predit: nah this isn't lylo. Five alive with at most one primed means that a mislynch and ignition leaves 3 player lylo tomorrow.

[Micc]

If he's genuinely clearing cheeky there then the game's solved from his point of view and I can't see him not noticing that.

[Micc]

With 6 players alive and no one primed the earliest scum can win is after 3 mislynches. BTD acknowledged this in post 808.

Cabd being confirmed town, clearing cheeky based off the nightkill and knowing his own alignment leaves only 3 players left in the lynch pool. Three players in the pool and 3 mislynches to give is a solved game.

I think he would have gotten to that point in his analysis if he was genuinely clearing cheeky there.

[Micc]

I know my own alignment, but the key point was that Town as a whole does not. Thus there were 4 non-cleared rather than 3.

Have you ever been Town in 3 player lylo and all of a sudden scum votes you and the other player doesn't hammer. This is the same thing. 1 other player in the pool with 1 lynch available is no different than 3 other players in the pool with 3 lynches available. Lynch everyone in the pool who isn't you and the game is over.

That's not what I am doing. If the Mod had made their mechanics for randomising actions public, igniting (to frame CheekyTeeky) would still have been the best play. I am suggesting that it's possible that you asked the Mod about this and then put two and two together. I'm not saying it's likely. Even then, it raises the probability of you being scum above random as I think you are the most likely player, out of everyone here, who would have done that based on your Day 3 posts.

First off, igniting to frame cheeky can never be the right play. It doesn't get scum any mislynches closer to winning the game. Secondly, you absolutely are accusing me of asking how the moderator would handle missed actions over the night period and then intentionally abusing the moderator's flawed system to my advantage. That's gross and no scum win is worth that. This isn't debatable.

[Micc]

I mean you brought it up as a non zero possibility and then voted me with that being the entire case, so I do think it's an accusation. It's gross.

[Micc]

And there's a huge difference between follow the Cop and intentionally planning night actions around getting an advantage from the unintended consequences of poor moderation policy.

[Micc]

PEdit: In that case, what would you say about the other cases? If the Mod had made their night action resolution public, would it be abusing the system to frame CheekyTeeky in that way?

Yeah. It would still be using the moderator's policies to push a mislynch. The moderator is an outside influence on the game. Their policies should not affect who gets lynched. I hate the fact that we auto lynched cheeky slot because of moderator influence yesterday and I especially hate you for suggesting I'd plan my day opening around how the moderator was influencing the game.

It doesn't matter if it was mod meta, or posted in the game rules or PMed privately to me just because the mod thought I might want to know. I think the play you are suggesting I might have done and are voting me exclusively for is unethical. Come find me when you have a real case to push on me.

VOTE: BTD6_maker

[Micc]

Sure, we disagree on ethics. Let's never play in each other's games again and agree to drop this line of conversation.

You're scum for everything I talked about in 856. Your push on me is part of it too but more so from a standpoint of scum have to make bad pushes and your push is bad. Finally, I don't want you in lylo because I know I wouldn't be able to lynch anyone else no matter how much I reconsidered.

[Micc]

I like how you ignored the 90% case in order to nit pick at the other 10%. Good posting.

[Micc]

Indeed, scum would generally make better pushes than Town would, because they have the extra information of knowing everyone's alignment.

But yeah this goes against everything I believe about mafia theory and the fundamental point of the game.

Your last point makes no sense. Are you saying that you don't want me in LyLo because you don't think you can push a lynch on anyone else except me? What are you trying to imply here?

I consider myself a very good lylo player. Part of that is being able to reconsider the entire game and distinguish what matters and what doesn't. If you and I were in lylo together I feel like I wouldn't be able to utilize the strongest aspect of my game which is not fucking up in lylo. Id auto vote you in a heart beat and not think twice about it.

Surely most lylo's would contain Cabd, and the third person would be confirmed scum at that point.

The lylo where we mislynch here and scum choose not to ignight is 4 player with cabd as confirmed Town. I think that's at least as likely as the alternative.

[Micc]

While this is very entertaining watching the mutual death tunnel, it would actually be super helpful if you two could lay out towncases for everyone else.

Does 'I've reread day 1 three times and I still can't wrap my head around either Hopkirk or Zito bussing there' work or am I going to actually pull out quotes ?

Ehh didn't read the pre edit.

[Micc]

Uhh, I'll add that you're confirmed Town because role. My question still stands.

[Micc]

Well I'm going to need a computer for that so come back later tonight and I'll have it.

[Micc]

Spoiler:

Not much point leaving my vote where it is when it’s waiting for a replacement.
VOTE: BTD6

383 – Gives light scumread on Cheeky, doesn’t follow it with a vote, and promises more content later.
421 - Two days later. No further catch up. Follows up slightly on Cheeky but no vote. Complains about activity (kind of ironically).

Don’t really like the entrance. Both those posts look longish, but have no significant content in them. I could very easily see the Cheeky vote as a bus.

Our story starts here. Cheeky and Sobelov slots are being replaced. BTD has recently returned from lengthy V/LA. The game's stalling out and desperately needs some life injected to it. Hopkirk doesn't like the BTD entrance and goes to vote him over the empty Cheeky slot. Town points for Hopkirk for a) understanding that wagoning empty player slots is a waste of time and b) identifying the need for a BTD wagon to pressure him about his entrance and keep the game moving.

Yeah, im on board with this.
VOTE: BTD6_maker

Second vote on BTD.

Aight I read the things. This game is surprisingly dense.

Cabd is a big fat liar and I wanna see my file. Where do I send my FOIA request.

VOTE: BTD6

Third vote on BTD and also Zito's entrance to the thread. Being his entrance he's pretty free to take whatever direction is best for his team if he's scum. Not really any associations with Chip so not alignment indicative in that sense. Later he acknowledges that town reads on Hopkirk and I influenced this vote. This becomes the start of a strong [hopkirk, micc, zito] voting block.

This wagon sits at three votes for a while. BTD responds a couple times but isn't impressive. Chip and Zito exchange opinions, and then we get to this point:

Nopes again. You don't get to ask questions while blowing off questions from others. You haven't contributed anything except that naked vote on BTD. How am i supposed to townread you based on that?

So here's your problem my friend. You've casually insinuated a few times now that my actions are "scummy" without actually giving any backing to the claim. And I've given you ample opportunity to do so. Just to be clear, I'm not asking so you can convince

me

, I know what my alignment is! But if you actually well and truly believe that I'm doing vague and mysterious scummy things then your reaction should include things like:

1. Voting me
2. Asking others to vote me; pushing a wagon
3. Pressuring me into answering questions
4. Examining my iso and voting history in detail
5. Putting forth a case

My issue is that you've done none of these things. Instead what you've done is:

1. Throw shade at my slot
2. Complain about my behavior
3. Refuse to explain basically anything

I came in with a pretty strong scumread on your slot, so when you presented the opportunity to engage I took it and you've failed spectacularly. Nothing you've done in reaction to me has been townie. Instead you've tried to take advantage of my nonstandard behavior by throwing shade to erode the townpoints my predecessor gained without actually committing to it with a vote or writing down a stance I could debunk. Doing that would pin you down into a 1-on-1 that you're not sure you want because you don't know how good a player I am or how good my reads happen to be.

@Micc:

Are you done with BTD or do you still have things to hash out with that slot?

I don't think this is bussing. If it was bussing then Zito as scum is abandoning a strong wagon on BTD before it's run its course in order to run up his partner. There's just no incentive to do that when BTD was perfectly lynch able at that time.

VOTE: chip

VOTE: Chip butty

Good votes ^

'So here's your problem my friend. You've casually insinuated a few times now that my actions are "scummy" without actually giving any backing to the claim.'

This is exactly how Chip was acting with his read on me earlier too. Like it even less now it's a pattern.
VOTE: Chip

Still want BTD's response to my response on his response.

I don't think this is bussing either, although that read is less strong than the Zito one. Hopkirk's not priced into joining this wagon. He's had NSG, cheeky and BTD all above Chip on his lynch list. There's nothing stopping him from opposing this wagon if it would defend his scum buddy. Instead he joins the wagon and we are eventually rewarded with a scum lynch.

It's possible either Hopkirk or Zito is scum looking to buy a little town credit or distance by being on this wagon before getting off. Lets see if they take the opportunity to get off the wagon before it goes through:

intent to hammer in 12 hours

Welp that's a big flashing light to get off you're scum buddy's wagon if I've every seen one. Especially given that this is essentially UC's entrance to the game and wanting to slow down because of that would have been perfectly reasonable.

I can't pick out a single quote that encompasses Zito's lack of interest in getting off the wagon, but he interacted with Chip for nearly two pages so he had plenty of time to turn his opinion around if that's what he wanted.

Hopkirk didn't post until after the hammer. That doesn't really tell anything about whether he was looking to get off the wagon. It's possible that he was looking to get off. Hopkirk town read is a lot less strong because of this.

Ill add to this that I think hard bussing is suicide because of how swingy the endgame numbers are. My case on Zito being town for not bussing is stronger than it is for Hopkirk, but I think both are valid. Also I kinda rushed this so it's not exactly as detailed as it could be.

[Micc]

What are you even trying to argue at this point?

If there's not a difference between scum and Town play then we might as well be playing a game of lynch whoever rolls the lowest number. I think it's clear based on the fact that you aren't advocating for a completely random lynch that you do indeed think that there are differences between scum posting and Town posting. Quit being ridiculous.

[Micc]

And yet you're voting me for what you seem to believe was a bad push on cheeky...

I'm busy all day. Catch you guys tomorrow. I hope to see an opinion from Zito and then by cabd by that time.

[Micc]

Yes we have two lynches. No we're not lynching me.

Mod: has papa Zito been prodded? We're past 4 full days since he posted at this point.

[Micc]

Is it about the Night 2 ignition? I've decided I can't justify it unless scum truly didn't understand the setup, and I think that's unlikely. I'm chalking it up to it either a) being BTD thinking he really needed to get rid of UC voyager who was solidly on his case or b) being a WIFOM move intended to be a distraction or c) a combination of both.

I guess I don't think its out of question that BTD would choose to ignite with the plan of coming into the thread first thing in the day to demonstrate his knowledge that ignition isn't the fastest path to victory for scum as a means for trying to get some town credit. TBH he was the most generally scum read player left in the game at that point and he would certainly be looking for an opportunity to shake things up.

[Micc]

Cabd gets the hammer not you. And I'm ready whenever he is.

If you're Town I'll take solice in knowing you don't get a vote tomorrow.

[Micc]

If you're scum I don't really care if you hammer. If you're Town I trust that you aren't stupid enough to take the hammer from cabd.

Because I think you vote right now sucks. You're clearly pushing a shitty case that is based off one non alignment indicative post. You haven't reconsidered the game at all. You haven't considered why it makes sense for me or anyone else to make post 817 as Town despite that being your thing all game long. You still seem to think the case behind our day 1 scum lynch was bad.

You're a liability in lylo and 921 proves that you know that you're a liability in lylo. If you disagree please explain why youre offering to self vote here. And if you agree please explain why you're asking me about this.

[Micc]

Ok so you agree that you're a liability in Lylo? Ignoring the reasons why because we obviously don't agree on those.

Predit: hey now I'm getting there, I just wanted to trap him into his stance so he can't argue out of it.

[Micc]

Ok so you agree that you're a liability in Lylo? Ignoring the reasons why because we obviously don't agree on those.

[Micc]

Cabd we're waiting on you. You got anything to say or not?

[Micc]

Just leaving work now and headed out of town for the weekend first thing in the morning. I'll be back with a clear mind on Monday and be ready to hash this shit out.

Mod: I will be V/LA through 11/19.

[Micc]

I want to hear from Zito before I get to far into putting my thoughts down. If he's scum then he's been pooketing me all game starting with getting me the lynch I wanted Day 1 and continuing with complementing my opinions for the rest of the game. I'm open to the possibility of that being what's going on here. I'd be more comfortable having him put thoughts down first so that he isn't building his strategy for the day around how I'm leaning.

If I'm wrong for thinking that's reasonable cabd/NSG let me know, but I think it's reasonable.

[Micc]

Oh man am I invited to this party?

[Micc]

And by that I mean let me know if you want me here or not. If y'all want to pow wow on your own I'll get some much needed sleep but I would make myself available if you all wanted it.

[Micc]

fire away regfan.

[Micc]

alright I'm going to bed in 15 minutes if no one else is here

[Micc]

1) I'd like your updated thoughts on Chip SS/Zito and Chip Hopkirk interactions throughout D1 now knowing that from your point of view one of them has to be mafia, I know you've gone into them previously in Post 896 and pointed out for the most part you didn't think they were mafia but obviously a reassessment and looking at it in light of the flips necessary. Also would like your thoughts on both SS/Zito & Hopkirks read progression on Chip as well as what they'd actually did in terms of getting him lynched revisited.

I haven't gone back to look at anything since the BTD flip, so right now I'm sticking with my conclusion in 896 that Hopkirk is more likely to have been busing than Zito. I'll give updated thought after I go back and reanalyze which should happen tonight because I'm expecting a slow night at work.

I'd also like your stance of "scum aren't incentivised to buss" elaborated on since I very very strongly disagree and would almost 100% be bussing in this iteration of the setup, there's no investigatives to catch you and you don't have to worry about the "why haven't you been night killed" argument so a good buss leads to a win....a lot of the time. So convince me that your stance is something you genuinely believe(d) in and why here since you not having rethought through this is fairly out of line with the caliber of player I think you are and one of the few things stopping me from locking you as town.

I don't think scum have incentive to do the Day 1 hard bus because of how hard the setup swings in favor of town with a Day 1 scum lynch with this game being a great example. We've mislynched three times now and are still playing - in a micro. Heck if Cabd's a miracle worker we can mislynch again today and have a shot tomorrow.

I agree that lack of investigatives, lack of a nightkill, and having treestumped players around in the endgame are all reasons that scum have some incentive to buss. So altogether I don't think its unreasonable for scum to bus in this setup, I just think that the Day 1 hardbus is unlikely. I pretty much took it for granted that both ZIto and Hopkirk fell into that category until I reread and made post 896. That reread made it clear that Hopkirk was much less invested into the Chip lynch than I thought and it makes up a lot of the difference between him and Zito at this point.

I'd also like your thoughts on Zito & Hopkirk re; the fact that we know that mafia called followers (Which I agree is the sub optimal move) as well as their reactions to it happening and their involvement and posting during the Cheeky lynch; again you know that one of them submitted that action so which of their play around that area do you think makes more/less sense as scum due to it and why? I'm aware you've gone into this a bit in Post 914 but now that the BTD scenarios are out of the question I'd like you to delve a little more into this than just "WIFOM" as an explanation.

We agree that it doesn't make strategic sense to ignite at that point in the game and I have a enough respect for Zito and Hopkirk as players that I'm going to rule out them not understanding the mechanics or strategy. All that leaves is someone trying to create WIFOM. If you really want me to go back and analyze their reaction/involvement/opinions over that day I guess I can but my preference is to not try and base my reads around things that are directly caused by scum injecting WIFOM into the game.

3) I'd also like a little more thoughts of yours on how the Northside/BTD/Cheekey lynches played out since I'm looking over that section of the game and just...wanting to bang my head against the table over and over again out of complete disbelief at how little actual conversation and re-consideration happened during those with the exception of yourself on Northside for a small period. I think there were a lot of points that could have been brought up to point out all three being town but very little were actually done so from yourself or others, so was there any thoughts you'd had on those three that you'd not put into the thread that might help me understand your play re; them a little more? And what do you make of Zito & Hopkirks play throughout that period?

I went through the thread Night 1 looking for interactions and came away thinking NSG was a slam dunk lynch and came out into Day 2 firing hard to lead what I thought was going to be a perfect town win (which would have felt great coming back from a year plus haitus tbh). I got cold feet for a bit but the combination of re-seeing everything I saw over the Night 1 reread, getting support from Zito, and the game stalling out all put me back on the lynch. I wasn't 100% convinced it was what I wanted for the day but seeing her lay down in the face of a wagon cemented it for me.

Cheeky lynch was pretty shitty. When the night ends with UC dead my mind goes straight to thinking the mod pretty much wrecked the game with their handling of replacements over the Night phase. I obviously understood that someone else igniting clears Cheeky. Thats just not something that you can allow to happen as a moderator which is why my mind went to asking how the mod would handle absent players over the night phase. Given the information we got from the moderator and that igniting was not optimal play there I thought it was a pretty clear case of the mod randomizing night action for absent scum slot.

BTD lynch came from still thinking Zito and Hopkirk were both town and for sure never wanting BTD to be voting in lylo. Not reconsidering this lynch more was probably me being lazy as much as anything. I just don't think I would have came to a different conclusion and without anyone opposing it letting the day drag on seems like it would have been a waste of time.

I've pushed most of these lynches through and Zito's backed me pretty strongly on all of it. Hopkirk feels like he's more or less just been here. I'm aware that if Zito's scum his long game strategy has been to have me in his pocket all game by echoing my thoughts the whole way. That makes me nervous about him in this lylo because I'm not sure if I'm supposed to trust my ability to read him. I'm going to re-read and probably have a better answer to this question after that.

[Micc]

If you think about it a little more a mafia lynch doesn't actually drastically increase the amount of mslynches that town receive throughout the game, if you play based on the logic that mafia only ever ignite to win the game you end up having a scenario where D1 is 7:2 (1), D2 6:2 (2), D3: 5:2 (3) meaning that town have at minimum 3 mslynches in hand before mafia could even just potentially win and that's only if their N1/N2/N3 primes all hit without being blocked or being on a player that'll be lynched. So without bussing mafia need 4 flat out mslynches to win this game in all likelihood, given there's been 3 mslynches so far and uh, this'll be lynch number 4 that means the difference between mafia having 2 members or 1 member left here is actually very minimal and then plays into the "Mafia should be playing to be read as not W/W" ergo "Mafia have a lot of reason to buss" area so while people helping lynch mafia D1 is nice and all it's very far from being a point to ruling them out.So like you've mentioned this a few times now with "The swing of the setup makes a mafia lynch D1 hurt a lot", can you actually show me what you mean because the numbers I've run above point heavily against the statement you've made being true.

Spoiler:

Day 1 scum lynch means 7v1 going into Night 1. First opportunity to prime.
Day 2 town lynch means 6v1 going into Night 2. Second opportunity to prime.
Day 3 town lynch means 5v1 going into Night 3. Third opportunity to prime.
Day 4 is the 3rd mislynch making it 4v1 going into Night 4.

Day 1 town lynch means 6v2 going into Night 1. First opportunity to prime.
Day 2 town lynch means 5v2 going into Night 2. Second opportunity to prime.
Day 3 is the 3rd mislynch making it 4v2 going into Night 3.

If nothing goes wrong scum ignite and win in both scenarios.
If scum ignite and one thing went wrong its lylo in both scenarios.
If scum ignite and two things went wrong its not even lylo in either scenario.

Yeah, the earliest the game can end is after 3 mislynches with perfect primes and ignitions regardless of how much scum is left. But with two scum left that perfect path requires 4 things to go right and with one scum left that perfect path requires 6 things to go right. Considering that each thing that goes wrong adds a mislynch to the game I think its a significant disadvantage to go down a player early.

The difference is even more pronounced on some of the extremely messy paths where more than two things go wrong - kinda like where we ended up in this game. For example we could hypothetically make our fourth mislynch today and still get a

fifth

chance tomorrow if Cabd made a successful protection or if we lynch the primed player. With two scum left the fourth mislynch is going to end the game in cases were one player has been night killed.

[Micc]

My intention hasn't been to single out day 1 as being different than any other day. I just think that loosing a partner makes the end game significantly more difficult than its worth. So distancing is fine and probably necessary, but lynching your partner in order to ride the town credit seems unnecessarily risky. Having ran the numbers more thoroughly now I'll admit it's closer than I was assuming for the duration of the game but I still think its true.

That said one of the bad things that can happen to scum is having a primed town player get lynched. It's always impossible to do that one Day 1, but its also not possible when scum gets lynched. For this reason a Day 1 bus is slightly worse than a day 2 or 3 bus.

[Micc]

I kinda rushed that post because I got called out of my office. Id like to add that I think the Night 3 ignite to win is a realistic path to shoot for. There's four points it could go potentially wrong: N1 prime gets protected, N1 prime gets lynched, N2 prime gets protected, N2 prime gets lynched. If one of those things goes wrong scum can still ignite and be left with a lylo situation. Its pretty easy to get three of those four things right.

With a scum lynch thrown in N3 prime gets protected and N3 prime gets lynched are added to the list of bad things that could happen. If one of those 6 things goes wrong scum still get to a lylo situation. Its a lot harder to get 5 of those 6 things right than the 3 of 4 in the first scenario. Especially considering the likelihood of a protection or a primed player getting lynched increases as the player list shrinks in size.

[Micc]

@Micc: Is the setup really punishing to scum if they hard bus day one? It seems like since we’ve been working under the assumption scum wouldn’t bus, if scum predicted we’d assume that then you/PZ/me as scum would all be safe until this point. If UC hadn’t died, it’d probably (depending on Cabd protects I think) be a 5p probable lylo by this stage, which scum would have a good chance in. Hard bus being bad move (like you seem to say it objectively is) is really wifomy in my opinion since the scenario we’ve got is looking good for scum even with the weird UC kill. Every lynch so far has been based largely on the logic that scum wouldn’t bus, and it looks like people are leaning more towards me being scum in a large part because I would be the lightest bus if scum- which means a hard bus would win the game, hence definitely not be a bad move.In light of that/this, I’m curious why you’d say a hard bus is a bad/suboptimal move?

If you want to talk about WIFOM then you might as well take the specific setup out of the picture. "A scum never bus" meta leads to scum being incentivized to bus. Once "Scum are often bussing" becomes the meta then scum are no longer incentivized to bus. I'm starting to wonder why this discussion is still relevant to the game. Clearly scum bussed. I can understand wanting to understand why we thought that was unlikely to be the case as it pertains to looking at read trajectory in an attempt to read someone. I just don't see the point in turning this into a theory debate about how to play this setup.

2.) can you expand on this point ‘Hopkirk feels like he's more or less just been here. I'm aware that if Zito's scum his long game strategy has been to have me in his pocket all game by echoing my thoughts the whole way’I was pushing UC/BTD d2/4, and against North. D3 I held the same view of Cheeky as everyone did. I’m curious why you think my pushes against UC/BTD were ‘just being there’, especially since PZ had a lot less content than me.

I mean you weren't memorable enough day 2/4 that I can remember those pushes off the top of my head. That's a product of my memory as much as it is your play. It should rectify its self when I go back to analyze that part of the game.

[Micc]

well shit. I lost half my post. Just gunna submit now for fear of somehow losing the rest.

Spoiler: a Sobelov/zito iso dig

has your opinion on chip butty changed as his wagon fell apart? the lack of traction for the wagon meant there was less pressure than I would have liked. I'm left feeling like I don't have a read on him because of it.

eh he's still a tr. i thought his response to his wagon in 56 was fairly towny. it was a lot like how i reacted to being wagoned early in my first newbie game although given his join date i'm a little less inclined to tr it than i would if he was a newbie.

i wish he would contribute more but i'm most interested in hearing btd's thoughts rn

This stands out because 56 is the post that drove my early game scum read on Chip. Sobolev is town reading Chip for this post despite acknowledging that his reasoning is flawed. I could see this being protection of a scum partner. Sobolev doubles down on this in 149 and again in 156.

i probably agree with cheeky that cabd should just self-protect every night.

I'm still of the opinion that this would have been wrong for what its worth. It doesn't feel right to scum read him for it this, but scum would defiantly prefer to have town announcing their strategy over keeping it a secret and anything pushing the game in that direction is suspicious.

micc can i convince you to vote for kawso. like i get he's been lurky but i just don't see at all how a townie comes back to the game, sees 4 new pages and just makes 107 with a garbage explanation for a vote. its like he's just searching for reasons to vote so he's at least doing something without actually engaging in the game

I think I town read this. Making a reach out post like this feel genuine is difficult as scum and this feels authentic.

micc can i convince you to vote for kawso. like i get he's been lurky but i just don't see at all how a townie comes back to the game, sees 4 new pages and just makes 107 with a garbage explanation for a vote. its like he's just searching for reasons to vote so he's at least doing something without actually engaging in the game

Similarly, this is good posting.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

sure

{SS, Cabd}
{NSG, Cheeky, Chip}
{BTD}
{Hopkirk, Micc}
{Kawso}

On the other hand this doesn't mesh with him reaching out to me in regards to voting Kawso/UC. Reaching out into you're scum pile for help to build a wagon isn't exactly a productive way to townblock.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

[Cabd]
[SS, CT, NSG]
[Micc
[Hopkirk]
[]

*Not enough input: BTD6, Kawso

Micc's work rate has definitely dropped off after an initial burst of activity. Possibly cruising after having established some town cred.

Hopkirk on the other hand has picked up activity after initially being quiet, but while he raises a lot of points my overall impression is that they lack penetration.

I kind of like CT's recent observation that NSG's comments are not of the sharp scum hunting variety but i also sympathise with NSG because nobody is yet standing out as especially scummy.

I think kawso either has to join the game or be replaced. Don't really want to vote that slot until we get something from it.

I might have to look back for evidence of Chip's town read on Sobolev here. Him not mentioning it in post 294 is weird and a lack of trajectory on this read would point towards Sobolev/Zito being scum. Also its interesting how close the Chip and Sobolev reads lists are.

~And now there's a decent sized break as Sobelov gets behind and is eventually replaced by Zito. ~

The stretch of Zito vs Chip between 512 and 532 still reads as not bussing to me. Chip definitely gets a little weird in the face of pressure, but that's why we lynched him and why he flipped scum. Zito's push makes sense, looks genuine, and ultimately isn't necessary if he's scum. Chip was pretty much off the table on Day 1 if this push doesn't happen which is a reasonably comfortable place for a Chip + Zito scum team to be.

And it continues for a while but I'm not going to pull out quotes because I don't have much to say about it.

[Micc]

Spoiler:

Yup, that was my conclusion too. Cheeky is a second possibility.

VOTE: northsidegal

If Zito helping to swing the Chip wagon was the start of him pocketing me this is the continuation.

a lot of your reasoning on how my posts make me chip's partner come off as if you already started with the perspective of me being chip's partner and then used that to explain how my posts made sense in that context, rather than starting from a neutral context.

This isn't true in the least.

If you want to live past today I'd suggest you start actually doing some work instead of trying to pick fights with Extremely Likely Townies.

I called this good posting at the time. Now it just feels like irony. But yeah, more of Zito possibly appealing to me.

why does it matter to you, don't you think i'm scum anyways?

I want you to prove me wrong. And Micc is the last person you should be worrying about.

This too.

@Micc I came to the same conclusions you did when I read overnight. I'm 100% on board here. I'm also willing to vote Cheeky today.

And also this. Being willing to vote Cheeky here doesn't line up with being 100% on board with NSG. I'm also left wondering how Cheeky moved under BTD - or even if Zito was scum reading BTD when he voted him upon entering the game. I kinda want to come back to this.

jfc no please don't get them started on statistics

Wait. You don't want us to scum hunt until there is a replacment. If I wasn't so confidant in BTD6, I would say NSG was scummy...

UC I'll make you a deal. You give me NSG today, I'll give you BTD6 tomorrow.

Hmmm. The trajectory from 726 to this don't really line up in context of ISOing but maybe the whole thread provides an explanation. Yeah I want to come back to this.

Yeah I'm down.

VOTE: Cheeky

If this doesn't do it I'll have to really reassess the game, but north/cheeky were the most logical partners for Chip.

and now he's moved back in the direction of Cheeky. Notably the last line indicates that Zito scumreads Cheeky beyond the nightkill shenanigans so that's not the reason for this shift.

Next there's a whole pile of Micc and Hopkirk posts without any Zito as cheeky gets lynched and Day 4 begins.

* Micc is still clearly town here. The early push on Chip was stamped by Micc Industries, he lamented later that it fell apart, and hopped back on as soon as it was viable again. In between those periods he was poking and prodding at everyone. There simply isn't a scum agenda here. If MiccTeam decided to pull off an all-day angry bus then kudos enjoy your win I ain't even mad.

Heck yeah I am. Possibly more appealing to me. Its also a pretty accurate description of how I fell about Zito during this part of the game.

Gods, what to make of post 820. It's the only thing i'm waffly about.

I've gone back and forth on that NK and ultimately where I landed was this: The move was so absolutely suboptimal that the only possible benefit it could have was to introduce confusion into the game, so it should simply be ignored. Corollary to that, any discussion regarding the NK should also be ignored since it's just a thousand gallon tank of wifom.

I think I had already made this post hadn't I? Pretty sure I did. Definitely scums up my feelings about the situation.

I haven't voted because I'm assuming this is lylo but lemme think out loud.

Night 1: UC Voyager slot of all people gets primed
Night 2: whoosh
Night 3:

unknown

gets primed

We have 5 players alive. If we mislynch today, we're down to 4. I think, regardless of whether we mislynched Night 3's primed townie, scum will prime another one. If we

didn't

lynch the primed target, then killing them Night 4 just puts us at 3. If we

did

lynch the primed target then they got nothing to blow up and gotta prime again.

So I guess we're not at lylo after all. I'd still like you to weigh in but if you feel like it's better to wait a day we can do that.

I definitely had made this post already too. I realize cabd was literally asking for it but ehh.

And that brings us to today. tbh I'm shaky about a lot more things after having gone through that than I was going in.

[Micc]

Spoiler: responses to quotes in post 1016

Fwiw, I just re-read the SS ISO, and i still think it is solid, so that carries over to Papa Zito.

This is when Zito is still voting BTD. Early indication is that Chip doesn't have a problem with Zito or his naked vote on BTD at this time.

BTD has been avoiding making strong reads, yes, but he is very conscious of that and keeps drawing attention to it, so he definitely not hoping it will go unnoticed. And he is actually right, there hasn't been anything to form a strong read on yet, so i am sympatico. His approach contrasts with the Micc/CT overstate-and-bluff approach to scumhunting, which also has its merits when used correctly. I'm not feeling BTD's CT vote though. I think he probably just a thoughtful, cautious player who will hopefully get stronger reads as the game progresses. If not then can lynch, but i won't be lynching him today.

I think I'll wait for substantial posts from UCV before actually voting. I'm inclined to look at BTD's wagon next. I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot. Time to revisit Hopkirk, methinks, esp since i still hold the view that he and Micc are unlikely both to be scum.

This doesn't really have anything to do with Chip/Zito interactions does it? I think the post is bad and scummy but I don't get a Zito read off it in any way.

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

Hello Chip. Let's talk about this sentence.

That seems like a pretty reasonable way to open up an avenue of interaction with a player youre interested in pushing. Certainly not hard to fake if its them bussing, but gun to my head I say its genuine.

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

Hello Chip. Let's talk about this sentence.

Sure. If your slot didn't have the SS history behind it, i would be at least have you leaning scum atm.

The trajectory from 490 to here is awkward, but that's scum points towards Chip and not any real indication of Zito's alignment imo.

Seriously Chip. Put a vote into play.

Predit: haha, haven't you realized that Chip's go to method of reading people is that activity=Town, any sign of lurkyness=scum and absent=null.

The Magic Chip Formula.

I'm not really lurking I'm just feeling really confident in my reads. Which is weird but nice. So atm I'm much more interested in supporting my townreads efforts in doing things than trying to drill down on my own.

Other than Chip. I do want to have a chat with Chip. Speaking of which:

Sure. If your slot didn't have the SS history behind it, i would be at least have you leaning scum atm.

oh no

but why

Again I think this is a reasonable post to come from town. He's setting up and fishing for bad answers from Chip which is basically my scumhunting strategy so this just looks town to me.

The Magic Chip Formula.

Do you want to know how I derived it? I looked at the activity table and noticed I'm the most prolific poster. Since from my own pov at keast I'm also townest, i realised that there is a perfect correlation there. Then i extrapolated to everyone else.

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

Now if there's a Chip post that makes Zito look like scum as opposed to just making Chip look like scum this is it. Its basically the equivalent of "lets fight and make it look like town vs town because that will help us distance and we can both benefit from getting town read for it."

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

rofl I don't owe that guy anything and I sure as hell don't need to "town it up a bit"

Which hey look you've once again made a super vague statement. So here I am asking why you're tossing shade instead of either determining alignment or pushing a wagon. Can you plz solve this mysterious mystery.

And this just feels like more good pushing from Zito.

[Micc]

If I'm being more precise it's these comments from Chip that I want you to weigh in on but the whole context above is needed to read them;

I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along.

And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

Questions open to anyone; do you think the above points towards PZ!Town, PZ!Scum or just not worth reading too much into?

So to reiterate, I think this shows Chip being scum because yes the trajectory isn't smooth at all. Yeah there's a case to be made about Chip signaling to his partner the desire for a discussion that leaves them both getting town credit. But at the end of the day this isn't something that I'd choose to make a game deciding read based off so I'm gunna go with the "not worth reading too much into" option to answer your question.

With that I'm headed home from work. I'll make some food and check back in to respond in about 30 to 45 min.

[Micc]

I will say that I think we all felt pretty comfortable with the game state going through days 2-4. Maybe Hopkirk a little less give that he possibly would have preferred to lynch NSG, cheeky and BTD in a different order. But I have a hard time holding 'feeling comfortable' against anyone given that's how I also felt.

The only thing from your interaction with Hopkirk that generated anything for me was the questioning of his BTD vote. I'm a little starved for context on it which comes from me not getting around to the Hopkirk ISO yet. I plan to give this some extra attention when I do that ISO tomorrow because I think you could be on to something. I feel the need to compare how I remember that BTD wagon building with what actually happened.

[Micc]

Also where's the treestumps???

Also, you all suck for getting me to stay up an extra hour for no reason.

[Micc]

Well shit. I read 40 hours as 40 minutes. I hate you all less now.

[Micc]

I probably haven't explained that well but I think if Hopkirk is mafia the decision (his night action) from last night seeped into the discussion I had with him big time.

I think this is a stretch.

@Micc/1010: Theory debate about the setup is pretty important given your reads are based on theory of how people would play in this setup… Why isn’t this important.
Second part I will be looking out for.

Then start talking about how all this affects your read on me. I'm not interested in debating whether my theory opinion is correct or not and you're post 1001 felt like that's what you were going for.

[Micc]

Sorry guys but I'm not getting to this tonight. Game plan is to do a full Hopkirk + Chip ISO stream of consciousness tomorrow morning and then go from there.

[Micc]

I put this together over the course of the day so its probably a little disjointed and I don't really feel like I've drawn any conclusions from it. Regardeless these are my thoughts as I read through Hopkirk ISO.

Spoiler: Hopkirk ISO reread

Why aren't yall helping to wagon the guy who planted his RVS vote on a player who is replacing out and then disappeared from the thread?

I pretty sure you have to wait 48 hours to prod a missing person.
He only 'disappeared' 8 hours ago.

This actually makes more sense and defending his partner than anything else. I don't see evidence of Hopkirk building a read off it or pushing me based on this.

Well, if somehow I do get lynched, look for scum on my wagon. There's only 8 available votes, and there are 5 needed to lynch and I can't see 5 town voting for this RC thing. Or even 4, really...Gotta go...

This strikes me as overly concerned with a few RVS votes.

Youre right it was. Why isn't Hopkirk helping me wagon him for it here?

This is an overly strong defense of Cabd given the lack of real pressure that I can see.VOTE: North

Expecially seeing as this is the vote he goes with. I'm not sure how NSG taking issue with Cheeky's push makes her scummy enough to vote here.

This is an overly strong defense of Cabd given the lack of real pressure that I can see.

like i said in some other post, it wasn't really meant to be a defense of cabd so much as pointing out strange behavior. i don't know if it's just me, but it seems like people are acting very odd this game and i'm having a hard time interpreting it.

It doesn't read like that since you don't really mention who you're talking about, so it's going to get lost rather than developed if bringing them to light is your intent.
Also people don't seem 'very odd' moreso than usual at this stage to me.

i tried to make it clear that the whole post was in response to cheeky's one post. that's why i put the "whole post for reference" in a spoiler. if other people don't see it (the strange behavior) then it's possible it's just me.

I'm not happy with this response. I was talking primarily about Cabd, and you don't really mention him, then later say i'm probably misunderstanding. I don't know how you'd clear up the misunderstanding without adressing the core bit.

This continues on and I find myself not understanding Hopkirk's push on NSG at all. First it was that NSG was defending Cabd pretty hard but when NSG clarifies that she meant it to be a push on Cheeky, then when Hopkirk follows up on it 100 posts later he thinks he's been talking about Cabd...huh?

Okay one last comment before i go. I don't think the wagon on NSG is sound. Don't know if it is scummy or not. More later.

Expanding on this was the most interesting thing in Chip's string of posts, so idk why it wasn't expanded on. Maybe sounds like he wants the lynch but doesn't want to be on it.
(please explain if not explained in the next pages)

More Hopkirk suspicion of Chip that ultimately isn't followed up on. I see where Regfan is coming from with regards to Hopkirk having a pretty established suspicion of Chip but not acting on it until the wagon builds.

Conclusion: Buddying up to a lot of people, not really attacking/pressuring anyone. Some conflicts in terms of says/wants/does. Biggest points of consideration are the confusing voting on Micc, the unresolved issues i have with the cheeky/Cabd thing, and the other scumreads.
Read progression on Micc could would be townish if the first thing was resolved.

This is the conclusion of Hopkirk doing a NSG iso dig.

70 so more posts before Hopkirk is back with more pushing on NSG in 345. 346 and 347 show a scum lean on Chip.

372 is Hopkirk voting Cheeky for taking issue with his NSG case. Tbh I would have been irritated at Cheeky too on this one. She basically called Hopkirk out for not doing things he clearly was doing and pretended to have a legitimate motive behind it but that motive never actually came out.

Not much point leaving my vote where it is when it’s waiting for a replacement.
VOTE: BTD6

383 – Gives light scumread on Cheeky, doesn’t follow it with a vote, and promises more content later.
421 - Two days later. No further catch up. Follows up slightly on Cheeky but no vote. Complains about activity (kind of ironically).

Don’t really like the entrance. Both those posts look longish, but have no significant content in them. I could very easily see the Cheeky vote as a bus.

This is where Cheeky replaces out and Hopkirk moves to BTD. It's right after BTD returns from a long absence and gives two really unimpressive posts. I get the desire to vote him and in fact I followed suit two posts later. This is the beginning of the Hopkirk/Micc/Zito voting block.

I don't find this assessment to be accurate.1.) You say you made some pretty obvious errors to see how people would react. If i'm interpreting it right (that you're talking about where you refused to comment further when I demonstarted you were saying factually untrue things like my vote wasn't on North when it was), then you're saying you were acting scummy to see how people would respond- which is both unprovable, and a classic/bad defence.2.) My read on you is not based on 'reads progression'. That was why I initially had you as slightly scum leaning. My read became significant enough to justify a vote because of your dodging/refusal to engage.3.) The reads progression isn't really something that can be solved through discussion. You retracted something that I thought was scummy after I'd commented on it. It wasn't majorly scummy since you changed track, but it was a light scumread since I wasn't sure if you only retracted it to avoid scrutiny.I'm still suspicious of North for the reasons I discussed during my casing earlier. I'm fairly sure you aren't both scum, since North's vote on you didn't really look like a bus (since I didn't give any indication my read had changed on him, so it would be far more advantageous for him to try and discredit me than to bus a partner and than to go along with me and lose a partner without reason to thing I'd think he was town afterwards). It doesn't strike me as a town v town either though.

This is all directed at Cheeky after she returns from never actually being replaced. I like that he's following up that scum read and analyzing Cheeky and NSG interactions. I don't like that he seems to think there is scum between those two all well voting BTD and soon to be voting Chip.

'So here's your problem my friend. You've casually insinuated a few times now that my actions are "scummy" without actually giving any backing to the claim.'

This is exactly how Chip was acting with his read on me earlier too. Like it even less now it's a pattern.
VOTE: Chip

Still want BTD's response to my response on his response.

I like that this wagon is exclusively made of all my town reads.

Here's the Chip vote. The wagon including his town reads makes sense with his read trajectory, but it also marks the fourth person he's considered scummy in a pretty short period of time.

Currently my thoughts (most likely scum) are BTD>UC>Cheeky, but I haven't looked at interactions yet. Also just realized I could have done these over the night in this setup.VOTE: BTD for now

Getting into Day 2 its weird to see NSG has dropped out of Hopkirk's scum pile. I don't see anything that really supports why.

North feels like new town (which I too frequently misread as scum) who’s actually trying.

This is all I see to be honest.

The tone in the second paragraph seems odd. You don't want to get lynched sure, but it sounds like (arguably you say explicitly) you don't understand why people want to lynch you, when there's some pretty obvious reasons.

This is directed at NSG. Shows that he knows there's a decent case against NSG. Pretty weird that he's got her off his scum list considering his day 1 reads.

UNVOTE: BTD VOTE: UC

This vote is also pretty far out of no where. He had UC as second highest scum read early in Day 2 but I didn't really see an explanation for that.

There's some discussion between Hopkirk and UC about NSG vs BDT wagons on Day 1 next that I'm not quite following without context.

Hopkirk feels very reserved with regards to seeing NSG lynch through. It feels consistent with scum trying to be off a wagon that is destined to ultimately result in a lynch. If Hopkirk is town here and is town reading NSG I'd expect to see opposition to that wagon.

It doesn't make much sense from anyone other than Cheeky's slot. Especially since that's who I was going to vote today.
Kind of weird BTD assumed Cheeky was innocent/there was a severe mod error automatically without asking any questions, but it's now more likely Cheeky than him.
I'll leave the hammer to Cabd if he wants it.

This is Hopkirks only post in Day 3. No wonder he doesn't feel memorable during this part of the game.

Will do a reread BTD later, but he's currently my top scumread.

Into Day 4 now. BTD is pretty clearly getting lynched here and nothing is standing out to me regarding Hopkirk.

I'm headed out of town to visit my family this weekend. I'll be posting but can't dedicate a ton of time to it.

[Micc]

Checking in to say that I’ll be catching up tonight and going through the things I said I wanted to revisit when I did ISO’s.

[Micc]

I'm around all night. Lets throw a party.

[Micc]

Cabd what do you think of the part of day 2 where Zito seemed to be helping to push the NSG wagon but still willing to go either cheeky or BTD?

[Micc]

regfan lets talk. ill let you pick the topic

[Micc]

or cabd too I guess. The holiday was a much needed break from this game but right now I'm eager to get this figured out. I'm just struggling with distinguishing what matters and what doesn't because I think a reasonable case can be made both ways here.

[Micc]

ill start by saying that I think that the day 1 vote on bdt over chip doesn't quite feel like a scum tell to me. Given the context of the timing of what was happening in the game I think the BTD vote makes tons of sense. The game was stalling partially because btd wasn't around. when he came back and gave so little in his catchup wagoning him just makes sense.

but then again I sheeped his vote, so maybe Im biased?

[Micc]

Re 1066: I don't get the attempt to paint me as not 100% trying to get Chip lynched for the middle parts of day 1. I'll admit i wasn't ready for a hammer until about 6 posts before it happened, but to act like i wasn't tyring to get him wagoned is silly. Hard to scum read hopkirk for this since hes coming at it from the angle that that im scum, but geez ill pull out quotes of me asking for a wagon if I have to.

This is actually a lot worse than I remember. I’d forgotten SS was around at the start until now really, and I can see why. There’s no stances, just townreading Chip while pushing an inactive surrounded by fluff.

this is pretty similar to my conclusion regarding Sobolev

[Micc]

I'm moreso after your thoughts on his Post 1056->Post 1059, what do you make his thoughts and assessment of your play? Do you think he manner in which he's assessing it is coming across as genuine/forced do you think any of the points he's bringing up or focusing on is good/bad? Same goes for his read on SS Post 1068?

Like how has that posting impacted on your reads if at all?

If you held the hammer on both of them right now and had to drop it in 5 minutes who would you pick and why currently?

i had to go and read all those posts because I skimmed them the first time and have ignored them since. I just don't think its useful for me to have an opinion on that stuff. Hes approaching it from the aussumption that I'm scum - i don't really know how much of it he believes. That and reading people off what they say in lylo isn't how to play lylo so I try not to do it.

if I had to drop a hammer in 5 minutes id be on zito. both him and SS read worse on day 1 than I remembered. the only hang up I have is that Zito made that chip wagon happen and I still think its not what scum would do there.

[Micc]

@Micc - Just in case you missed it would like this answered;

If you held the hammer on both of them right now and had to drop it in 5 minutes who would you pick and why currently?

If you're town here I'm sure you've got a million things going through your head, actually airing them a) Helps us to make sure we're making the correct decision since we'll be more informed and b) Will help me feel a bit better about you to quell the "What if I'm getting played by Micc" doubts in my head.

yeah Im trying to manage tabs an look back at the posts you singled out while typing and thinking. if you have doubts about me lets get that straightened out first. its hard for me to know what im supposed to be doing here becuase whyd anyone listen to me when there's a ton of confirmed town around.

[Micc]

heh. we have different philosophies about approaching lylo then cause I'd almost rather roll dice than try to make reads off what people post in lylo.

Basically where I'm at is that if you take the 5 posts where Zito made the Chip wagon happen and remove them from the game I dont see a compelling reason for him to be town. Early in the game I had SS as town by POE. Obviously we've seen where how poor my POE was. Even looking at day 2 i find his trajectories kinda bad. he's all in support of my NSG push but conceeds that hed lynch cheeky too all well promising BTD the following day to UC. THats a three person lynch pool with one scum left.

[Micc]

i'm also resigned to the fact that bussing is way more valid of a strategy than I was originally thinking and that the Zito bus on Chip wouldn't be that outrageous. I'd even say its more likely that zito would hard bus from the get go than for Hopkirk to eventually end up on the wagon but I think Im getting into wifom here.

[Micc]

I had Chip in the ISO when I did both the stream of consciousness post for each of them. I had a hard time getting past thinking chip was scum and that id lynch him again in a heart beat. I think Hopkirks trajectory on chip is reasonably town looking but I could see it being scum too. All of Hopkirk's votes moves make sense to me and line up with the pace of the game, which is something I think you might have a hard time getting from replacing in. But the truth is that day 1 had some long dead periods where half the players were not around and that influenced how the wagons went.

There's no evidence of Sobolev's chip town read being genuine or making sense and I think that makes his interaction look worst than Hopkirk's does. In fact i've caught myself wondering why I never pushed at sobolev more because of that very read.

[Micc]

I will say that Zito's only posting here in day 5 being a defense of your push against Hopkirk regarding BTD vote doesn't sit well with me either. I'm afraid he's continuing a strategy of being the last one to take stances and I don't really like that. I'm probably waking towards conf bias at that point tho to try and put more thoughts in the thread for you.

what are your thoughts about what I was talking about regarding day 2 zito. Do you agree he's passive to take a stance and that his trajectory is a little wonky with regards to having a pretty big lynch pool despite acting very confident about his NSG vote?

[Micc]

gunna be honest I had forgotten about the VCA into spare time discussion and I think its a very valid point.

If you approach day 2 from the mindset of a player who had just hard bussed their partner wouldn't your strategy be to ride the town credit and follow the lynch of the day (ie anyone off the scum lynch wagon). There's evidence of Zito pushing his town credit around in order to drive through the NSG lynch.

Every time I look at day 2 I think to myself that if I hadn't opened so strongly on her would she even have been the lynch? THe lynch wagon is Zito who if he's scum is following my lead and playing off my confidence, cheeky who may or may not have really believed in the lynch im still not sure, nsg selfvoting, me pushing strongly, and UC who basically went with it because the day was stalling. I think its evidence of zito scum but hopkirk's in a pretty advantageous spot for scum to be - off the wagon.

northsidegal (5) - Papa Zito, CheekyTeeky, Micc, northsidegal, UC Voyager

[Micc]

looking back it turns out cheeky was pretty strongly on the NSG wagon too.

I wish NSG hadn't self voted. I wasn't ready to follow through on her wagon until she did and that fifth vote makes a huge difference regarding interactions with players alive.

[Micc]

You've spoken a bit about your issues with PZ and his push on Chip, I'd like to hear a little more on you from Hopkirk, is there anything in the game so far that makes you think he's town, if so what? Anything he's done this game that you think makes sense as mafia, if so what?

Hopkirk's day 1 push on NSG makes me hesitate a little because I didn't think anything she regarding pushing Cabd was worthy of a scum read, but I absolutely did agree with the part about her vote on me being bad. Hopkirk's lack of interest in NSG day 2 is the real red flag tho. I might have to dig harder into this but this is a long way to come from his early day 1 nsg scum read. i get that a ton of stuff happened and I get why btd moved up his list. cheeky and uc not so much.

i also think if there is anything to be made out of uc kill night 2 its that him and hopkirk were kinda starting to butt heads.

[Micc]

Why the fuck am i the only person voting Cheeky when she's explicitly refused to engage with evidence that undeniably contradicts what's she's saying.

I like that this wagon is exclusively made of all my town reads.

These are my Hopkirk being town posts. The first reads genuinely to me and I think he'd be satisfied getting into a quote wall fight with cheeky if he were scum, but this is the post that made me actually look at what they were arguing about instead of glossing over it. I don't think the call for help to wagon her comes from scum.

the second is just not a thought that I think a scum player has at that point in the game. The same thing came to my head when the wagon popped up.

I dont' have much for posts to pull out for Zito being town. I think I was saying it before, but if you thrown out what I think is a very well done buss if its a bus, then I don't have reasons to town read zito here. that being one of my go to tie breakers is the reason i'm leaning in zito's direction here despite the questions I do have about HOpkirk.

fwiw im at around 75/25 right now.

[Micc]

yeah I did a quick zito iso scan and didn't come up with any inspiration with regards to reasons I think he's town.

with that im going to get some sleep. I feel better about my read having forced myself to put some time into this. ill be back tomorrow to respond to things you guys have for me. not going to have this kind of sit down time again until monday night.

[Micc]

Yeah I can go back and grab quotes of me pushing for chip wagon when I get to a computer later today.

Can you look back at your day 2 and pull out quotes that show you having a reads list? I’m trying to put together exactly what you were thinking over the course of day 2.

[Micc]

NSG had moved more towards town for you during day 1 then? Where was that?

Spoiler: Pulling out quotes of me trying to drive a chip wagon

Why aren't yall helping to wagon the guy who planted his RVS vote on a player who is replacing out and then disappeared from the thread?

Me asking for a Chip RVS wagon.

now i've got two trs and one of them isn't cabd

This seems to imply you got a town read on Hopkirk from post 38. Can you explain that one please?

yea i thought that his questions in 38 meshed a lot with what i was thinking when i read those posts which indicates a towny thought process. it wasn't a super strong read at the time but its been strengthened by his recent posts as well

ftr my other tr at the time was chip but when i entered the game the wagon on him was pretty much the only thing happening and i wanted to see what happened with it

has your opinion on chip butty changed as his wagon fell apart? the lack of traction for the wagon meant there was less pressure than I would have liked. I'm left feeling like I don't have a read on him because of it.

Me stating my disappointment that a stronger Chip RVS wagon didn't happen.

sorry, i wasn't clear again. me voting you initially wasn't entirely serious. my vote as it stands now is where i want it to be. let's look at the sum total of your contributions this game: you threw a little fit over someone's rvs vote and then you threw a little fit again over my vote on you. i hope i'm not making the mistake of letting how much i dislike you cloud my judgment, but i don't think i am.

Well, I think ive refuted the points you made regarding the seriously serious vote and I think this post unfairly mis represents my contributions to the game thus far. Do me a favor and seriously think about my play and ask yourself what is likely to come from town/scum and why. If you decide that youre scum reading me solely because you don't like what I'm doing or how I'm doing it then back off. If you really think I'm scum bring the evidence to the table. Right now I'm trying to decide if I caught scum you pushing a bad case or if youre town that is confirmation biasing herself because she doesn't like my approach to the game.

it's hard to display in quotes how natural you sound in one game as opposed to the other

and thus why I think this argument doesn't hold water. Its pretty clear that you decided my posts look "awkward" and went into my previous games in order to find evidence that proves to yourself that its alignment indicative. As Cabd can attest to, it takes A Lot of time to make a legitimate meta argument. And if you're going out to find the evidence after you have your hypothesis then your doing it wrong.

has your opinion on chip butty changed as his wagon fell apart? the lack of traction for the wagon meant there was less pressure than I would have liked. I'm left feeling like I don't have a read on him because of it.

eh he's still a tr. i thought his response to his wagon in 56 was fairly towny. it was a lot like how i reacted to being wagoned early in my first newbie game although given his join date i'm a little less inclined to tr it than i would if he was a newbie.

i wish he would contribute more but i'm most interested in hearing btd's thoughts rn

could you expand on post 56 please? that's the post I picked out as pretty useless to make as town and questioned him further on. Is there a reason a newer player wouldn't have this type of reaction as scum? for me it doesn't seem like the kind of thing that needs to be said if he's town and as scum he would likely be using it to discourage the players on his wagon from staying on it any longer.

Trying to convince one of my town reads that his town read on chip had flawed reasoning.

i've been a little but busy but i've also been thinking a lot about this game. the more thought i give to the issue the more i think it's possible i'm reading through the thread with the goal of trying to make you scum in my mind to fit some narrative rather than objectively looking at things. for the sake of both the town and myself i think it's counterproductive for me to keep going with it, so for now i think what i'm going to do is just try to focus on other people.

Cool beans. I can work that.
UNVOTE: northsidegal

The lack of ability to build momentum on any wagons so far this game makes me want to look for scum in the lower activity players. At the same time I'm conflicted because I generally view parking a vote on a player for lack of participation as a waste of time.

Talking more about how a chip wagon never happened and what I thought it meant about the game.

No, I'm not interested in wagoning anyone who's not here. That's never productive. I kinda want to wagon you because it still bothers me that it never got traction the first time.

Let's talk about Hopkirk. He's your lowest read of the players with more than two posts. I have him moving above you because I liked a lot of things he did in his catch up. What's your read based on?

Me saying that it bothers me that Chip never got wagoned and that I'd be up for it.

VOTE: Chip butty
Well none of that moved me away from wanting to see this wagon happen. I don't like his trajectory on me. He moved me from towniest among the active slots to being null simply by not posting for a day. I thought the creater of the setup thing was a joke at first but he reemphisised it without anyone else bringing it up and I can't see why he's letting that have an impact on his read.

My understanding of his point against hopkirk is that hopkirks reads are superficial and or lack deep analysis. Not only do I disagree with that I think I could accuse Chip of that same thing. Seems like more of his reads are activity based than anything else which I see as very superficial.

Me voting Chip in hopes that other players will join.

oh man. it took cheeky two sentences to explain what I've been trying to say for three days.

Can we get an actual wagon on Chip yet? That and some catchup posting from LUV/BTD would do wonders for this game right now.

Me specifically calling out to people for a Chip wagon.

@Micc: Are you done with BTD or do you still have things to hash out with that slot?

I'm not really done or satisfied with what came out of pushing BTD, but if this is you asking whether I still want the Chip butty wagon I've been calling for all game then consider me on board.

VOTE: Chip butty

Me not hesitating to drop my BTD push in order to wagon Chip at the first sign of interest from other players.

[Micc]

Gunna wait to see what happens with Zito here before voting. Doesn’t look like he’s been on site since Thursday. Hopefully everything’s alright and we’ll see him post before Lyncanfire comes around because I’d hate to see a replacement here.

[Micc]

I’m here. Fire away

[Micc]

I don’t really have anything to say that I didn’t over the past couple days. Could you go through the points we’ve made and comment on them?

[Micc]

Why have you been the last one to take a stance from day 2 onward. Make me feel better about you not riding my mislynch generating momentum all the way to lylo.

[Micc]

yeah I understand that but it doesn't really address the point I was trying to make. It feels like your play from day 2 onward has been primarily supporting me in generating mislynches and pushing me back in that direction when I start to reconsider. Can you address that?

[Micc]

I was thinking back to Day 2 when I was reconsidering on NSG and you confirmed pretty strongly that that's where you were at as well.

[Micc]

Spoiler: This is the sequence I'm talking about.

UNVOTE:
For now. I haven't hit the aha moment that makes me think this is right yet and I'm getting cold feet. I don't want to do anything without talking it through with cabd/Zito/Hopkirk but it's not going to happen today because I'm kinda busy.

What do you wanna talk over?

I want to all be in agreement here, not just me pushing a lynch and everybody following which is kinda what it felt like. You seem to agree about northsidegal, Hopkirk didn't even seem to have her in his bottom 3 and Cabd is understandably keeping his cards close to his chest. The combination of UC's post on BTD and this northsidegal wagon not feeling right make want to slow down and reconsider. I just don't have time to read back until late tonight.

My point about bad Town was that they are much more confident in their reads than the actual probability. For example, I think it's likely that if you take every time a Townie claims to be 80% certain of a read, a lot less than 80% of those reads will be on actual scum.

Unless I am certain of a preferred pronoun, I tend to just use the singular they.

Is it bad to be confident in your reads and thus actually driving the game forward or is it bad to just sit on your ass and do absolutely nothing all game. Also my pronoun is tagged on every single of the thousands of posts I've made on this website.

@Micc

I came to the same conclusions you did when I read overnight. I'm 100% on board here. I'm also willing to vote Cheeky today.

@Hopkirk

did you read the multiple posts where northsidegal was defending our flipped scum? You really think those come from town?

@UC

there's only one scum left my dude there's no possibility of collusion here.

While we're here can you talk about why you're 100% on board with NSG here while still being open to Cheeky and BTD (post 751)?

[Micc]

Zito, why'd you have me so strongly as town at that point of day 2, and also now?

[Micc]

2.) That's not what I meant. Calling for a wagon isn't equal to pushing hard. A few paragraphs on recent actions isn't a case, a couple of lines of questions to SS isn't really trying to persuade your townreads (you didn't really try and persuade me), and (though this isn't your fault and leans to null) a push is limited in what it tells us when nobody joins it.

I don't have anything for you then. I'm not selfish enough to think my Day 1 reads are so much better than anyone else's that I start demanding people vote with me. All I can do is continuously express my reads and try to keep an open enough mind to get reads on other players without tunneling or spamming up the thread with a 20 page 1v1 argument.

[Micc]

Re 1066: I don't get the attempt to paint me as not 100% trying to get Chip lynched for the middle parts of day 1. I'll admit i wasn't ready for a hammer until about 6 posts before it happened, but to act like i wasn't tyring to get him wagoned is silly. Hard to scum read hopkirk for this since hes coming at it from the angle that that im scum, but geez ill pull out quotes of me asking for a wagon if I have to.

@Micc/1090: Could you pull those up, since they’re the strongest reason for my suspicions.

That's a main part of what I'm saying. You weren't on him hard enough for it to be a hard bus.

Are you saying a hard bus makes me town or scum here? How about a softer bus?

I feel like I've lost track of what the point you're trying to make is right now.

[Micc]

VOTE: Papa Zito

I'm still really only at 75/25 on this one but yeah I guess we can start getting votes down in the interest of making sure we don't tread too close to the deadline.

[Micc]

our views of the game have been in sync.

yeah. this is what scares me and you haven't been able to make me feel better about it. the way things have played out I don't have a way of knowing whether our views are in sync because we're both town and seeing the game the same, or if you're scum that's been quietly helping be lead a string of mis lynches in order to get you to lylo. If you've done a full re read and analyzed the early game I'd love to see some stream of consciousness like commentary from it. Something that shows why you're strong on me being town.

predit: 1183 actually helps. thank you.

[Micc]

1183 helps me understand why you're voting Hopkirk here that is. It doesn't really make me feel better about me being pocketed all game. You don't really have a play to do anything but town read me here if you're scum.

I'm still on the fence. Definitely no hammer yet please.