Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[Cabd]

I live.

[Cabd]

I would normally argue that rc enjoys scum so a rc replace out is likely town but in this instance he replaced out of every single game on site at once, so it is a billion percent null.

[Cabd]

Also it's nice to see a few newbies whose play I've enjoyed recently here! Hi and welcome!

[Cabd]

why aren't you voting, cabd?

A vote is effectively pointing a loaded gun at somebody, in my eyes. Why would I shoot from the hip before I fully read the game?

[Cabd]

Do you think not voting during the RVS phase is scum motivated?

[Cabd]

Do you think not voting during the RVS phase is scum motivated?

Or rather, do you think that this is something I specifically went out of my way to do this game, as opposed to it being my traditional mannerisms?

[Cabd]

no i think you put too much weight on the vote but that is likely a playstyle thing

i do think that your not voting isn't especially pro-town, however

You likely won't see a vote from me until i am confident in my entire reads list, not just a singular read. If this was a traditional game, the list would even contain the phrase "sync achieved"

[Cabd]

The setup isn't anything too complex, I will note we will NOT get flips night one; and no-lynching in this setup is almost always the wrong move.


The two "self-docs" here should be treated somewhat like you would bulletproofs in the matrix 6 setup, with the note that them claiming early like the matrix 6 BP strat is a bad idea.

[Cabd]

no i think you put too much weight on the vote but that is likely a playstyle thing

i do think that your not voting isn't especially pro-town, however

You likely won't see a vote from me until i am confident in my entire reads list, not just a singular read. If this was a traditional game, the list would even contain the phrase "sync achieved"

any reads of note so far?

A singular townread that is of no major weight.

[Cabd]

isn't there only one doctor / firefighter?

Apparently so, and I misread.

The point stays mostly the same, though.

[Cabd]

You are both technically right. It's entirely NAI in that not voting in RVS has been my tradition for years now.

The sword/gun thing is also sort of a traditional response to that question, as it gets asked nearly every game.

[Cabd]

?

I misread the setup and thought it was 2-2-5 instead of 2-1-6; that doesn't exactly change the complexity much. If anything it makes it less complex.

[Cabd]

I'm going to specifically state I'm not going to wade into this until space is done with cheeky

[Cabd]

see ya on the other side cabd

Sure. Syryana sends his regards.

[Cabd]

Oh are we done. Okay. Let's talk about how micc just skipped over my entrence entirely?

[Cabd]

I mean if Cheeky starts channeling Awoo I'l gladly string her up but nah.

[Cabd]

@NSG; you may find this relevant: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=73237

[Cabd]

Also, re "meta master" my title is a thing because at one point i kept a literal binder full of meta tells for every user, and read every single game that took place in a two year period to tally it.

I'm married and have a job now, so lolnope.jpg anymore.

[Cabd]

I don't know why everyone is getting so precious about Cabd?

Because I am as innocent as a newborn kitten's paw pads?

[Cabd]

I will say that given the setup; claims don't mean almost anything, in that the "doctor" role should probably be rolling a dice between their townreads including themselves to protect; if outed.


Everyone except the doc will claim VT regardless. If scum trades one for one it becomes a bit harder but it's still not a high-EV play imo.

[Cabd]

(it's not a response to a specific post, it's me thinking while at lunch at work)

[Cabd]

I realize the creator of this setup is here, but my itch to try and break setups will never truly go away.

[Cabd]

No, firefighter IDEALLY should just be randomizing their saves between townreads and themselves; and then it gives a confirmed townie the day before lylo. Maybe? Let me sit down and math.

[Cabd]

I like this town

ORLY?

[Cabd]

That might affect possible breaking strategies

All that stands out to me with the self-protect is you can have an IC that makes it to "lylo" at the cost of never getting off a protect... which in the setup protects are unlikely to occur anyways.

[Cabd]

psa: talking about ongoing games is forbidden even if you're already dead in them

^trufax

[Cabd]

Hah. (I was the backup mod of that game)

[Cabd]

no i think you put too much weight on the vote but that is likely a playstyle thing

i do think that your not voting isn't especially pro-town, however

You likely won't see a vote from me until i am confident in my entire reads list, not just a singular read. If this was a traditional game, the list would even contain the phrase "sync achieved"

From cabd's ISO I see only fluff, discussion about the setup, and this promise. I'm hoping to see some actual scumhunting from this slot real soon.

Don't hold your breath~

[Cabd]

yea just iso'd cabd and i can't see anything that looks like a scumslip

I have a guess but I'm gonna let cheeky huff and puff first.

[Cabd]

Heat death of the universe

Somewhere in the middle <--------------------------------------------------------

Five minutes from this post

[Cabd]

I was right lel.

[Cabd]

I know it's not the setup error~

There's another good reason to make the slip you think is a slip.

[Cabd]

Are we playing mafia, or lateral thinking puzzles?

[Cabd]

BY all means though, proceed, senator.

[Cabd]

K well it has nothing to do with my opening this game but that's all you get.

[Cabd]

V/LA until the 16th of October

I will still try to post, though.

Anyway, is there anything in particular that anyone would like to draw my attention to?

In one game, my point about Cabd's making a point of not voting may hold. Of course, if they are known to do this in every game, it can be regarded as completely NAI. I will, however, analyse Cabd some more.

Not voting is an every game thing.


However; there is plenty of game data out there for me. Modern games aren't included yet but my wiki may prove helpful.

[Cabd]

My personal guess was the number two meaning "cabd has a partner and assumed the town PRs would too" but fuckifiknow.jpg

[Cabd]

Maybe. Who knows.

I replaced in blind, really, because i saw the player list and liked it.

[Cabd]

As in, I didn't really read the setup; sorta skimmed and then made that post. That's where the "2" came from and why it's not related to my entrance into the game, but more the replacement itself.

[Cabd]

Where'd you go, Cheeky?

Sorry, this was me.

[Cabd]

Skimmed != Did not read.

[Cabd]

Am I really gonna have to do the thing Jesus.

[Cabd]

You expect lots of things.

[Cabd]

Oh for fuck's sake. It's obvious anyways, whatever.

[Cabd]

Congrats cheeky, you've now forced me to go ahead and TRY the breaking strat with rolling dice and protecting myself X% of the time.

[Cabd]

Yes, I'm fucking salty about it.


This is the part where micc comes and talks to me and we hammer out what X% should be with him and the rest of ya'll too.

[Cabd]

My personal thought was 75% is gonna be near the sweet spot.

[Cabd]

Yes, seriously.


I thought there was two of us tbh.

I also didn't realize about the treestump thing until my second pass.

[Cabd]

For the record, I had explicitly intended to claim at some point in the game day given the self-protect semi-sorta-ish breaking things.

Cheeky just sorta forced my hand before I could play it up more.

[Cabd]

It's like 12:30AM. Sorry. I'm headed to sleep actually.

[Cabd]

I mean yeah NSG's approach to this game has been very weird; but can somebody explain why it's SCUM-weird?

[Cabd]

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

[Cabd]

Checking back in and reading soon. Lost power a bit in the Chicago storm

[Cabd]

VOTE: Micc


Think I'm here right now for reasons.

[Cabd]

REPLACEMENT

Lil Uzi Vert replaces Kawso. Welcome, LUV!

Hi Uzi.

[Cabd]

I’ll try to catch up sometime tonight.

Oh the usual. I draw town but then confirmed town so I don't get to bullshit around. But otoh I get to live this game.

[Cabd]

Bd's post does track a little.

[Cabd]

"I can follow the thought process and could see it coming from town"

[Cabd]

Confirmed town creates a "follow the leader" scenario where people sheep me without hesitation and I REALLY want to avoid that. So yes, and my full thoughts and vote change if any will probably happen tomorrow evening.

[Cabd]

You're fine. This game has been low-content for a while and needs a shakeup, no replace needed.

[Cabd]

Yeah I'm not sheeping conf. town...It's nice to have a free town read though. Is sheeping conf. town AI?

No, but it stagnates games.

See: BP in matrix6

[Cabd]

...

[Cabd]

Hi zito.

[Cabd]

Hello friends I will commence with the reading.

I am confirmed scum and have been trolling all day so enjoy.

[Cabd]

Cabd is a big fat liar

Boring.

[Cabd]

Pagetop. Out of town but probably voting tomrorow.

[Cabd]

Hey guys. UNVOTE: cathinh up later tonight

Hi I'm confirmed scum.

And trolling.

[Cabd]

Sold.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: chip

[Cabd]

Nah, i'm gonna unvote, your'e gonna vote, I reserve the hammer.

UNVOTE:

[Cabd]

Yeah, confirmed town should always have the hammer if possible. There's no claims going to come out anyways, given the nature of the setup and me being the only PR.

[Cabd]

518 says zito is town locking and POE-ing the rest. It's not like the best explsination of a vote ever but it's certainly not a black hole of reasons.

[Cabd]

518 says zito is town locking and POE-ing the rest. It's not like the best explsination of a vote ever but it's certainly not a black hole of reasons.

Can you explain like I'm 5yo please?

There's 9 players in the game.

I am confirmed town, and presumably he's not gonna vote himself, right?

That leaves 7 potential players.

Now what would happen if he had really solid townreads on a few of them?

Naturally, you'd look at the rest, right?

Now, imagine you townread five others.

What's that leave?

Well; that's two in the leftover pile for scum.

[Cabd]

I feel like I've somehow wandered into Road to Rome.

Nah broski it's fine I'm a qualified IC player.

[Cabd]

VOTE: Chip

Slot's not getting to lylo anyways, let's just go from info here.

[Cabd]

^Bingo

At this point we need information and Chip's alignment is something I want before LYLO regardless.

[Cabd]

You realize I hammered, right? You're arguing with somebody who will either be confirmed town ghost or dead scum as soon as mod sees the thread?

[Cabd]

Pretty sure it was me hammering.

If i'm wrong I'm wrong I guess.

@Mod VC please

[Cabd]

I mean chip's welcome to come in here and talk, too.

[Cabd]

Still upset at my lolhammer?

[Cabd]

Day four is the earliest lylo. Today and tomorrow is pure scumhunhting. Two "freebie" chances to get it right. Let's get it right then.

[Cabd]

Maybe. I want to re-read how yesterday went down; i was giddy knowing we'd hit scum d1.

[Cabd]

You can be mad if you want, but the nature of this setup makes mislynching MUCH less painful, and we needed data. The game was majorly stalling out.

[Cabd]

Iirc zito is a hard busses but dunno that hardbussing the way he would have done as scum here is something that he'd do as an ideal play.

He's town until lylo anyways.


All reads are invalid there.

[Cabd]

BTD, we approach the game completely differently, and even if we're both town here, would likely find each other's play to be poor.

Zito is a POE townblocker. So I am in most aspects. You're not, and that's okay, but the case made perfect sense to me.

[Cabd]

Welcome to yomi level one, folks.

[Cabd]

^ i don't get it

http://www.sirlin.net/ptw-book/7-spies-of-the-mind

[Cabd]

Yomi level -1

[Cabd]

Cabd I need you to start speaking up bud, the game is stagnating.

Yeah.


I don't see many scenarios in which NSG is alive in LYLO and I'm fine flipping her over to be a confirmed town voice if not GG.

[Cabd]

This game suffers from really long night phases. Wish it was night-less or 24-hour nights.

[Cabd]

Lolwtfbbq

[Cabd]

Ironically I doubt ucv understood the setup. Apparently scum didn't either.

[Cabd]

Is north still allowed to post?

[Cabd]

How shitty.

I don't like any of this at all.

But unfortunately, the timings match up for cheekyteeky's entire leaving the site thing.

[Cabd]

Is it at L-1?

Can we all prevote for early night and stuff?


VOTE: night ends as soon as all actions are in

Can we get y'all to do that?

[Cabd]

Yeah yeah.

Let's see.

VOTE: cheeky

I have a feeling this isn't the end.

[Cabd]

MFW doesn't even matter.

[Cabd]

Last mod checkin was over two days ago. Hopefully soon.

[Cabd]

Fucking sigh.

[Cabd]

I'm going to re-read and make my decision tomorrow. This is LYLO unless we get SUPER lucky and happen to lynch the townie who was primed, I think? I'll math it out.

[Cabd]

While this is very entertaining watching the mutual death tunnel, it would actually be super helpful if you two could lay out towncases for everyone else.

[Cabd]

While this is very entertaining watching the mutual death tunnel, it would actually be super helpful if you two could lay out towncases for everyone else.

[Cabd]

Yeah you'll need to pull quotes.

[Cabd]

Tomorrow

[Cabd]

This is me gearing up and putting down thoughts.

[Cabd]

A re-read of day one confirms I won't be voting Micc today. Zito's also probably off limits for now. That leaves hop and btd. Let me ISO both and make my choice, and we can get on with it and stop dragging my heels.

[Cabd]

Gods, what to make of post 820. It's the only thing i'm waffly about.

[Cabd]

cabd save me

My psychiatry is rusty.

Can you do me one last favor and lay out the math for 100% sure why this isn't actually lylo/mylo?

[Cabd]

I've spent the past day and a half waffling, so not really, sadly.

Fuck it.

VOTE: BTD

[Cabd]

MYLO :~(

Okay then.

[Cabd]

Woah. Time to see if Regfan can guess it right for all the marbles as a confirmed town treestump.

[Cabd]

I'm central time, otherwise pick your poison.

Evenings my time are best; like... 40 hours from this post would be great.

[Cabd]

FYI you're not the only confotown stump sooooo

[Cabd]

I believe NSG and I share a time zone, if not a city.

[Cabd]

For the record, I'll reveal who i targeted each night later. Probably after regfan snuggles. It wasn't 100% self.

[Cabd]

@Cabd - You done much/any meta reading into any of the three of them at all this game?

I know I said i'd be around but stuff came up, so you'll have to settle for infodumping and having me respond later, sorry.

[Cabd]

Sorry bout that reg; we're having ISP issues at work.. which is sort of important to an internet-based videogame-making company.

I'll be able to circle around tonight, sorry.

[Cabd]

Sorry, yeah. Same.

[Cabd]

Reg? I'm here and coming to a decision now.

[Cabd]

Upon re-read; I hate the sobovlovspace (Now Papa Zito)-chip butty (dead scum) interactions.

Gah.

We've got Cabd as doc, BTD6 as v/la, and Hopkirk and Kawso in need of a prod. I also don't really want to lynch a lurker but I'm not yet getting any super scummy vibes among Micc, SS, CT, and NSG.

Of those four I'm finding Micc to be townest mainly because he refused to be fobbed off when burrowing on 56, even though i didn't give the answer he wanted right away. I think scum would probably have pretended to be satisfied and moved on more easily. However, of he is operating at the level of designing setups, we are probably screwed if he is scum.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

[Cabd]
[SS, CT, NSG]
[Micc
[Hopkirk]
[]

*Not enough input: BTD6, Kawso

Both of these posts have SS as a cited town read for no actual stated reason, while the rest are justified in the posts before or between the two posts.

This post from SS also makes me weary:

resignation to being lynched is more townie amongst newbies than not imo. especially trying to give advice for where to look for scum post-flip since scum doesn't really care what town does after they're lynched - they just want to stay alive - while town does.

for example in my last game we wagoned scum early d1 and they responded by being much colder than they were early game

Spoiler: quotes

You have misrepresented my conclusion and are continuing discussion of game mechanics after others have stated that's a bad idea. I find both of those approaches questionable at best.

You went from discussing mechanics yourself to saying that approach is questionable pretty quickly. What specifically changed your mind?

Sobolev and kittycap's exchange on page 2.

I gave a logical progression from point to point to conclusion, but you stripped out the qualifier in your recap. When I called you on the change you said you hadn't added anything to my conclusion, but in point of fact you subtracted from it. Why?

That is what I did here, but Green skipped my qualifiers and presented it as me making a black and white statement. I appear to being getting heat for what he said rather than what I actually wrote, which is super confusing to me.

meanwhile the newbie townie that we wagoned d1 seemed like they kinda gave up and resigned themselves to being lynched eventually and expressed similar frustration to chip as to the case on them:

Spoiler: quotes

If you guys are set on lynching me that's fine. if there's any questions anybody wants to ask before I'm hammered, feel free.

I was surprised to see him at the top of her town reads.

why not ask her about it? Does this affect your read on Sobolev? You said she was a top town read, why haven't you tried to reach out and get her to townread you?

It kind of affected my read, but overall I've seen her as town this whole game. I don't know exactly what you mean by reach out to her to change her mind. All I've done this game is post my honest thoughts and don't really see why my posts are "bad in iso." It seems the tone of the game has drastically changed on the last page which has been pretty confusing for me.

i didn't realize chip was as experienced as he was however, so the i'm not tring these as much as before

It's a VERY soft and easily ignored way to start setting up to bus if needed; and to stay off the wagon if things turn around.

THe first metion of SS not in a reads list is in post 320, and it's just to ask a DIFFERENT person a question. Ugh.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

sure

{SS, Cabd}
{NSG, Cheeky, Chip}
{BTD}
{Hopkirk, Micc}
{Kawso}

I haven't seen anything from Sobolev that made me want to push him so he gets to be a default town read.

Sobolev is scum leaning Hopkirk too, yet you have no problem with that?

322 has the first questions TO SS:

hopkirk is back to null for now

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

sure

{SS, Cabd}
{NSG, Cheeky, Chip}
{BTD}
{Hopkirk, Micc}
{Kawso}

@Sobolev: there were 4 Hopkirk posts in between these. Can you please explain your progression from null to scumlean on him, with reference to those four posts?

@Micc: Given your keen interest in Hopkirk assessments and progressions, how did you fail to notice this?

[Cabd]

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

[Cabd]

[

SS

,

CT

,

NSG

]
[

Micc

[

Hopkirk

]
[]

*Not enough input:

BTD6

,

Kawso

[Cabd]

I'm still working.

[Cabd]

Effectively reg I'm lookign for reasons to townread the initial SS/Zito stuff BEFORE DA WAGON

[Cabd]

Because in a setup where mislynches are stumps; bussing early seems like a way more viable strat than i'd been giving it to.

[Cabd]

I know you need more.

Syr was playing league and pulled me in, but I'm back and still going.

[Cabd]

Right now my gut legit says "vote zito"

[Cabd]

1) The lack of actual push and pressure from him on Chip throughout early/mid D1, there were lots of interactions between them and lots of Micc stating he's scum reading Chip but when it actually comes down to it there's not a lot he did to try and get Chip lynched at all, this is something Hopkirk pointed out recently that I think is a valid point. Think it also makes sense as town trying to avoid going all tunnely in the early game but it's not the best look given the flip.

This is completely true.

2) The ignition can make sense from him as mafia if you're looking at it in the "He's able to make the strongest case about him knowing it's suboptimal as mafia and therefore possibly be faslely cleared due to it" knowing that he was already a scum member down and needed something to put himself in a better position come the late game to secure the win. That said think this action can make sense from others too so I'm trying to avoid reading too much into the N2 action if I can.

N2 action is a metric arse-load of WIFOM and as far as I'm concerned it didn't happen.

3) His stance of "Scum wouldn't buss" for the mid stage of this game is one I strongly disagree with and if he's scum one that he can easily use to get himself through a few easy day phases. I've already run through how I think if anything this setup promotes bussing more than dissuades it and the path of "Take easy lynches on players that didn't push Chip D1 and then do a turnaround to get someone that helped get his later int he game" makes plenty of sense to do as scum and is probably the route I take as mafia here. I did kind of like his discussion with me at the end and started believing that he really holds the stance he claims to have on this though.

So, I went through the entire game, as confirmed town, in much the same manner of thinking (IE: Scum won't bus here) and only today did I really rethink that, so fwiw I know (and you know because lol confotown!cabd) that town playeds the same way this game at least one slot did. I'd ask if NSG and BTD felt the same.

[Cabd]

50-30-20 give or take?

[Cabd]

But I feel like that's too tunnely on Zito and it should be in my logical brain 40-40-20.

But logic and gut can slug that one out.

[Cabd]

The 55 and or 50 being zito, or being hop?

[Cabd]

K running iso to pull as requested.

[Cabd]

So, falling asleep, but the posts that jumped out to me for a potential hop towncase are...


Top of 38

345

347

Yeah, it's bad that no vote materialized out of that; but then again I'm also a lazy fuck with my vote, too.

489 especially

I was wondering about that, given mafia looks hard to play in this setup.

feels very naturally written.

534

611 not a "don't hammer" just a "provide reads before you hammer" where I think I'd be trying to see if I could get UCV to shop around. Or just ask for more time hoping somebody got weak nerves.

723 in that I feel like it was obvious UCV is lynchbait; so voting there then going back and nightkilling the slot if scum is a little ??? Why lynch who you primed?

861 does worry me, i can't exactly place my finger on why, though.

[Cabd]

Rereading BTD now. I thought he’d subbed in, didn’t realize he was here from the start.

Oh also this one.

[Cabd]

Hearing from Zito would help too; but as you noted eh.

[Cabd]

Which I'll be doing, by the by. Holding it, that is.

[Cabd]

Has your conclusion/percentages changed any?

[Cabd]

Mine has not changed.

[Cabd]

"mine" being intent to vote for Zito.

[Cabd]

Vote: Papa Zito

Final answer eh?

[Cabd]

For the record, I'll be here and able to vote/not vote until the end, but I'd like zito's regfan-appeasement sooner rather than later.

[Cabd]

I'm ready. Micc?

One way or another, this ends today.

[Cabd]

Reg?

[Cabd]

Chip certainly isn't a great look for Hopkirk but the point alone doesn't override the concerns I've got with PZ's slot and without PZ bringing up more on Hopkirk I don't see my mind changing. The manner Miccs unvote/revoted has sort of worried me in that it's the smooth type of way I think I'd be playing the situation as scum when it's possible to go to another day upon a mslynch.

This is sorta my feeling but otoh; he could have NOT unvoted and I would have hammered earlier so hitoshrug

[Cabd]

VOTE: Zito


Go ahead and claim scum, Micc/Hop?