Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[BTD6_maker]

I am not a liability in LyLo because of my ability to vote. The only reason that I could be considered a liability is that others scumread me. That is why I am offering to self-vote. That doesn't mean that taking away my vote is something Town should take solace in.

My case on you is based on mechanics. Of course you will disagree because you know your own alignment, but the case holds. It's not about 817. It's about your prior posts. You clearly did not, at least immediately, realise that CheekyTeeky was "cleared" if empty slots take no action, which is the default. Scum would not realise that, whereas Town could. The question is one of Bayesian probability. P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)/P(B) where P(A) is the probability that you are scum and P(B) is the probability that you would not realise that CheekyTeeky was "cleared". Now, P(A) did not change during Night 2 (P(A) is the a priori probability, not the a posteriori probability) but P(B|A) is a lot higher than P(B) (scum are a lot more likely than random to not realise that CheekyTeeky was "cleared") so P(A|B) > P(A) and the probability that you are scum does indeed increase.

And why is it a problem for me to think that the case behind the Day 1 scum lynch was bad?

[Papa Zito]

It's an attempt to increase the viable lynch pool by discrediting the townies behind the wagon. You need room to maneuver.

That's been my read of it anyway.

[Micc]

Ok so you agree that you're a liability in Lylo? Ignoring the reasons why because we obviously don't agree on those.

Predit: hey now I'm getting there, I just wanted to trap him into his stance so he can't argue out of it.

[BTD6_maker]

It's an attempt to increase the viable lynch pool by discrediting the townies behind the wagon. You need room to maneuver.

That's been my read of it anyway.

Are you assuming that just because a wagon was on scum there was no scum on it?

Secondly, are you assuming that just because Townies lynch scum, their reasoning must be solid?

You are wrong on both counts. A wagon on scum does not necessarily have to be composed entirely of Town, and the people on that wagon should not be automatically treated as unlynchable. Secondly, in this case I do indeed think that Town as a whole were right for the wrong reasons.

[Micc]

Ok so you agree that you're a liability in Lylo? Ignoring the reasons why because we obviously don't agree on those.

[BTD6_maker]

Ok so you agree that you're a liability in Lylo? Ignoring the reasons why because we obviously don't agree on those.

It depends on what you mean by liability. If you mean someone who will harm LyLo, the real liability, as I see it, is the fact that the people on my wagon seem to be very confbiased (if Town) or deliberately tunnelling me (if scum). In this way, you are the real liabilities from my perspective.

If you merely mean someone such that Town will have a lower chance of winning if they survive to LyLo, I am indeed a liability in LyLo. But I am not the problem.

[Papa Zito]

Are you assuming that just because a wagon was on scum there was no scum on it?

Secondly, are you assuming that just because Townies lynch scum, their reasoning must be solid?

You are wrong on both counts. A wagon on scum does not necessarily have to be composed entirely of Town, and the people on that wagon should not be automatically treated as unlynchable. Secondly, in this case I do indeed think that Town as a whole were right for the wrong reasons.

One of the major problems I have with your play this game is posts like these. I'm not here to argue theory with you or debate How Mafia Works, that's just a bunch of white noise. I'm also not terribly interested in watching you set up strawmen and gallantly knock them down.

The purpose of my post was not to convince you that you're scum here, that's a pointless endeavor regardless of your actual alignment. I'm just giving my opinion on that particular topic, mostly for cabd's benefit. Sorry if you thought that was an opening for debate.

[BTD6_maker]

Are you assuming that just because a wagon was on scum there was no scum on it?

Secondly, are you assuming that just because Townies lynch scum, their reasoning must be solid?

You are wrong on both counts. A wagon on scum does not necessarily have to be composed entirely of Town, and the people on that wagon should not be automatically treated as unlynchable. Secondly, in this case I do indeed think that Town as a whole were right for the wrong reasons.

One of the major problems I have with your play this game is posts like these. I'm not here to argue theory with you or debate How Mafia Works, that's just a bunch of white noise. I'm also not terribly interested in watching you set up strawmen and gallantly knock them down.

The purpose of my post was not to convince you that you're scum here, that's a pointless endeavor regardless of your actual alignment. I'm just giving my opinion on that particular topic, mostly for cabd's benefit. Sorry if you thought that was an opening for debate.

If you are giving your opinion, I can ask you about your opinion. You cannot just put a post out there and declare it to be off-limits for debate.

Why are posts like this a major problem? If you are using theory then the theory can and should be debated. If you do not want theory to be debated then do not use it. You cannot simply use theory and say that it shouldn't be debated. I will question it. Indeed, a lot of it seems to rest on unjustified assumptions.

So I will ask you about your opinion. Why do you think that I am "discrediting the townies behind the wagon" by saying that the case on Chip was bad? Obviously you will not convince me that I am scum, but I am very interested in knowing why you think I am.

[Papa Zito]

I gave my opinion of a specific event and how and why it occurred in this game. You took that and went full on Mafia Discussion on it. They aren't remotely related topics and I'm not going to go down that primrose path. And, again, my thoughts are going to be mostly for cabd's benefit here.

I've already touched on the topic of why I think you're scum, add "repeat myself ad nauseam" to the list of things I'm not interested in doing.

[BTD6_maker]

You have already said why you think I am scum, but you have not said why you think I am "discrediting the townies behind the wagon" by saying that the case on Chip was bad. If you have answered that particular question (in different wording, of course) please point it out in your ISO. Otherwise, you are not repeating yourself.

You can give your opinion, but if you won't back it up it will remain as simply an unjustified assertion.

[Hopkirk]

I'll be V/LA from around 5pm GMT today until late thursday/early friday.

[Papa Zito]

cabd save me

[Cabd]

cabd save me

My psychiatry is rusty.

Can you do me one last favor and lay out the math for 100% sure why this isn't actually lylo/mylo?

[Papa Zito]

I haven't voted because I'm assuming this is lylo but lemme think out loud.

Night 1: UC Voyager slot of all people gets primed
Night 2: whoosh
Night 3:

unknown

gets primed

We have 5 players alive. If we mislynch today, we're down to 4. I think, regardless of whether we mislynched Night 3's primed townie, scum will prime another one. If we

didn't

lynch the primed target, then killing them Night 4 just puts us at 3. If we

did

lynch the primed target then they got nothing to blow up and gotta prime again.

So I guess we're not at lylo after all. I'd still like you to weigh in but if you feel like it's better to wait a day we can do that.

[Micc]

Cabd we're waiting on you. You got anything to say or not?

[Cabd]

I've spent the past day and a half waffling, so not really, sadly.

Fuck it.

VOTE: BTD

[Lycanfire]

VC 4.2 FINAL

You don't have to die if you don't look back.

Why did you look back?

Lynch Achieved
BTD6_maker (3) - Micc, Hopkirk, Cabd [LYNCH]

Micc (1) - BTD6_maker

Not Voting: Papa Zito

With 3 votes, a lynch has been achieved on BTD6_maker.



They were.....

Spoiler: Role PM

Welcome to Micro 745: Beyond Death.

Wandering Soul

Be careful that your first steps are not your last.

Full of curiousity of the world around them you walk the living world seeking out new experiences. As a

Wandering Soul

you know nothing of the afterlife or what will come next, and your desire for adventure may lead you down a dangerous path. As a soul you are not alone. Will you seek refuge in harmony, lament upon unfinished business, or break through and see the world that leads Beyond Death? Choose your path.

Abilities:

• * Lingering Spirit: If you are lynched you will retain your ability to speak in the game thread, but you will lose your vote and will no longer count towards the votes required for a lynch. Dying by any other means will override this ability, and you will pass Beyond Death.

Win Condition:

• * You win when only
  Town
  players are left alive.

Game Link: viewtopic.php?f=83&t=73585

To confirm, please reply confirming your role name.

[Lycanfire]

Night 4

It is now Night 4.

End of Night 4 in (expired on 2017-11-18 11:35:00).

Night will be accelerated if everyone private messages me to accelerate.

[Lycanfire]

Day 5

The horses kept running. Forever.

It is now Day 5

4/9 Players are Alive

1. Papa Zito
2. Micc
3. Cabd
4. Hopkirk

With 4 alive it will require 3 votes to achieve a lynch.


Day 5 will end in (expired on 2017-12-01 20:05:00).

[Cabd]

MYLO :~(

Okay then.

[northsidegal]

i'll try to be a more active part of the conversation today.

[Micc]

Just leaving work now and headed out of town for the weekend first thing in the morning. I'll be back with a clear mind on Monday and be ready to hash this shit out.

Mod: I will be V/LA through 11/19.

[BTD6_maker]

Now everyone knows that what I said was not WIFOM, because everyone now knows that I am Town.

Who was responsible for the N2 kill? You now know that I was not.

Now, the kill was likely WIFOM. However, there is always a Nash equilibrium, which is optimal. Using WIFOM more or less often than the Nash equilibrium is suboptimal. Now, the greater the cost of doing something, the lower the Nash equilibrium is. So in this case, if scum thought that CheekyTeeky was cleared, the Nash equilibrium would say that they should ignite with a very low probability, much lower than if they didn't believe or realise that CheekyTeeky was cleared. Thus, even though it was WIFOM, we can deduce something:

Scum very likely did not realise that CheekyTeeky was "cleared".

Now, before the Mod clarified the mechanics:

I thought that CheekyTeeky was cleared.
Micc had to have it explained to them, which suggests that it was very likely that they did not realise that CheekyTeeky was cleared.
Papa Zito and Hopkirk did not get a chance to post before the mechanics were revealed.

This makes Micc considerably more likely to be scum. Even though it was WIFOM, WIFOM is still subject to mathematical analysis.

[Hopkirk]

Currently leaning towards Micc as scum>Zito, but I need to reread again.

[northsidegal]

i don't think we should discard the possibility of bussing day one from zito. i know i'm bringing up the merits of the chip wagon again which you all seem to be annoyed by, but it can't be ignored now. just from numbers and looking at the end of day wagon we know that scum were among the first three on the chip wagon - probably the most useful part of the game to look back on will be the interactions starting from about page 20, and especially the four votes all in a row starting from 528.