Open 700: Donner Party - ENDGAME

[Not_Mafia]

That's not why

[MathBlade]

Porkins...as scum try to get non-scum lynched and avoid the same, if I look hard enough I can probably find scum motivation in everyone in the game.

I do not subscribe to you or Math HAVING to be scum just because they have a theory that opposes your claim. I'm not town reading them but there are probably 2 or 3 others I would prefer to see gone before Math barring something changing (flip/info/etc).

Why Assembler over not mafia? Gut? Assembler has a wagon? Nothing terribly concrete...just decided after the last few posts of Goedel's that I was less interested in seeing him lynched than I was when I voted him. Not saying I'm tr'ing Goedel...just wanting to hold off and if we are both still here tomorrow...see where my read on him stands.

My thoughts on what Goedel has said. Without diving into an ISO of him...I get the sense he is awkward and inexperienced and not completely sure what he is doing and while that might result in some of the things he is saying/doing coming across as suspect...I'm starting to get the feel he is trying to find scum. So maybe he's the sk? idk. Hence the preference to wait.

Uhmmmm

Mafia are trying to find the SK
SK are trying to find Mafia
Town are trying to find both

Why exactly is "Yeah this guy could be scum but let's not lynch him" a valid option?

Maybe Godel and Havingfitz and northsidegal SK and just Porkens is terribad and Almost/Transcend had an off game

But that's like very unlikely

[northsidegal]

Maybe Godel and Havingfitz and northsidegal SK and just Porkens is terribad and Almost/Transcend had an off game

don't you think you move into dangerous territory, rationally speaking, when you declare another player "terribad" if their assessment of something and your assessment don't match up? i guess what i'm really asking is - why are you so absolutely confident that you're correct? town are in even more of low-information state here than in typical games. even more, some of your conclusions come from what seem to me to be weak logical connections, ie a50 and transcend are good players, they thought keychain was scum and thus keychain was scum.

i'm trying to determine here if there's something alignment-relevant about all of this but i'm having a hard time coming up with anything.

[MathBlade]

Maybe Godel and Havingfitz and northsidegal SK and just Porkens is terribad and Almost/Transcend had an off game

don't you think you move into dangerous territory, rationally speaking, when you declare another player "terribad" if their assessment of something and your assessment don't match up? i guess what i'm really asking is - why are you so absolutely confident that you're correct? town are in even more of low-information state here than in typical games. even more, some of your conclusions come from what seem to me to be weak logical connections, ie a50 and transcend are good players, they thought keychain was scum and thus keychain was scum.

i'm trying to determine here if there's something alignment-relevant about all of this but i'm having a hard time coming up with anything.

It's much more than just a rational assessment though.

I have had terribad games before.

If Porkens is the vig and killed Transcend that was a terrible shot.
Furthermore the Keychain kill was bad.

Like I am not judging the player I am judging the play itself.

Like I have more experience than most in flipless games. Mainly people need to realize what they are doing and learn from it.

[northsidegal]

Maybe Godel and Havingfitz and northsidegal SK and just Porkens is terribad and Almost/Transcend had an off game

don't you think you move into dangerous territory, rationally speaking, when you declare another player "terribad" if their assessment of something and your assessment don't match up? i guess what i'm really asking is - why are you so absolutely confident that you're correct? town are in even more of low-information state here than in typical games. even more, some of your conclusions come from what seem to me to be weak logical connections, ie a50 and transcend are good players, they thought keychain was scum and thus keychain was scum.

i'm trying to determine here if there's something alignment-relevant about all of this but i'm having a hard time coming up with anything.

It's much more than just a rational assessment though.

I have had terribad games before.

If Porkens is the vig and killed Transcend that was a terrible shot.
Furthermore the Keychain kill was bad.

Like I am not judging the player I am judging the play itself.

Like I have more experience than most in flipless games. Mainly people need to realize what they are doing and learn from it.

if you are town, you are in the same position of non-information as the rest of us. how can you conclusively say that, regardless of the player or the context under which scum or the sk acted, the keychain kill was bad? like, you're making these confident claims but unless you're scum the only way you could see these things that the rest of us couldn't is through your assessment. i'm asking you to walk me through that assessment, and on a deeper level than "a50 and transcend are good and thus keychain is scum".

[MathBlade]

By pointing out what is bad and how they justify it gives me an idea of where they are and let's me read how they are approaching the game.

For example a competent SK defends someone they believe to be the vig. They also defend who they believe to be scum. A competent SK needs as many bodies to hit the floor as possible while still hunting.

A competent mafia attempts to lynch the SK after the first death as to keep the amount of deaths exactly where they need it.

However the pushes from the majority of players are not combining in such a pattern where that is evident.

It's the same reason Infinity was scum in the last game played. Scum have a subconscious desire to be off of the wagons that have Town on them to look better later. Anyone defending that is likely scum hence the LQ push compromise on infinity,

In this game we want people off the UCV wagon.

[MathBlade]

Pedit will get to that in a moment.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 1.6

[0]

Almost50

[0]

Not_Mafia

[1]

Assemblerotws

Not_Mafia,
[0]

havingfitz

[1]

Keychain

Almost50,
[0]

Transcend

[1]

northsidegal

havingfitz,
[0]

PMysterious

[7]

UC Voyager

Assemblerotws, Elmo TeH AzN, northsidegal, Gödel, Porkens, PMysterious, Transcend,

<---- LYNCH

[1]

Gödel

Keychain,
[0]

Elmo TeH AzN

[1]

Porkens

UC Voyager,

Note Voting:

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Day Ends:

(expired on 2017-11-07 15:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Still looking for a replacement for Elmo (I was trying to give some extra time to find one before locking thread). Night 1 will not end until I find a replacement. Flip and official night start will come momentarily.

The people off the wagon were Keychain, northsidegal, Havingfitz, not Mafia and Almost50.

We know there were no reciprocal shots.

If Keychain killed anyone it had to be Almost50 or Transcend. If Keychain killed Transcend Porkens is scum. So from the common view (Porkens vig which I don't believe) then the only person Keychain could kill is almost50.

Similarly the only person A50 could shoot without Porkens being scum is Keychain.

One of them has to have not shot anyone else we'd be looking at flips.

Therefore Keychain is town not vig, Town who shot Almost50, or mafia who shot Almost50 or mafia partner did a kill.

Repeat for Almost50 swapping word with Keychain.

Now let's break down their ISOs.

[northsidegal]

The people off the wagon were Keychain, northsidegal, Havingfitz, not Mafia and Almost50.

i was on the wagon.

[MathBlade]

Keychain's last dying wish was for a Godel lynch and votes Transcend.

This strongly implies who to fucking nightkill. If it was already hammer then why the hell would Keychain vote Transcend and not Godel?

Both are vanity and he doesn't talk a lot about the UCV wagon.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 1.6

[0]

Almost50

[0]

Not_Mafia

[1]

Assemblerotws

Not_Mafia,
[0]

havingfitz

[1]

Keychain

Almost50,
[0]

Transcend

[1]

northsidegal

havingfitz,
[0]

PMysterious

[7]

UC Voyager

Assemblerotws, Elmo TeH AzN, northsidegal, Gödel, Porkens, PMysterious, Transcend,

<---- LYNCH

[1]

Gödel

Keychain,
[0]

Elmo TeH AzN

[1]

Porkens

UC Voyager,

Note Voting:

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Day Ends:

(expired on 2017-11-07 15:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Still looking for a replacement for Elmo (I was trying to give some extra time to find one before locking thread). Night 1 will not end until I find a replacement. Flip and official night start will come momentarily.

Low and behold You were fuck my votes.

Still think you're scum though.

[MathBlade]

THERE IS 10 HOURS LEFT IN THE DAY I REFUSE TO HAVE THIS DAY END IN A NO LYNCH

VOTE: UC Voyager

greens but we need a flip

This was hammer and then Not Mafia voted after that.

I don't see scum intentionally clamoring to be on a mislynch wagon by the end of the day.

That attracts too much attention.

So not Mafia is town.

[MathBlade]

I haven't really posted in this game since replacing in. I read D1 but didn't take any notes. OTTOMH I recall this general sentiment towards players:

UCV - null
Keychain - Town
A50 - slight sus
Transcend - slight sus
______________________
Godel sus
Porkens sus
Not_Mafia slight sus
NSG - slight town lean
Everyone else TBD


D2 catchup...

@NSG...why is it so hard to accept a Transcend and A50 nk? As they could be either alignment surely there is a logical scenario where either the vig or scum/sk would want them eliminated.

Mod...your last comment in the set up says both goons have seperate larders and if one dies...their larder is revealed to town/other Cannibal. Can you confirm that if a Mafia Goon is killed by the sk or Vig...that their larder is OR isn't revealed to town?

@Math...what "limited activity" are you referring to as a reason to implicate NSG? Standard posting in the game since D2 began? <this is discussed further in subsequent posts but I still think pre/post flip activity is NAI.

@Math...Hth does Transcend and A50 suspecting Key make Key scum? And if you are so confident in A50 being the vig...why aren't you voting Porkens at this point in the game?

@Math...hth is that a vig claim by A50?

@Godel...Porkens.

@Assembler...why are one of Porkens or Math scum? Porkens could be telling the truth (which I am inclined to believe) and Math could still be town who is getting it wrong...wrong like most of the people were who voted UCV D1.

@Math...why is Godel "not happening?"

Caught up. The only two people I would not willing to lynch today (atm) are NSG and Porkens.

Of the others from most to least interested I'd vote:

Math/Godel (tossup)
Assembler
PMysterious/Not Mafia (tossup)

I will do some ISOs to see if I can get any of the bottom three off my sus/tbd list.

Math's at L-2 by my count so in the interest of extending the day a bit I'll...

VOTE: Godel

This post here catching up is weird from him.

He is most interested in me/Godel and get votes Godel out of interest in extending the day.

This is more indicative of scum not wanting to be on a mislynch wagon before posting as that would look horrible.

If he is equally interested in both of us he should vote the one closer to lynch. So his read wall is a lie.

Furthermore he doesn't spend any time trying to prove his points it is more to get me talking and get on my good side.

[northsidegal]

The people off the wagon were Keychain, northsidegal, Havingfitz, not Mafia and Almost50.

We know there were no reciprocal shots.

If Keychain killed anyone it had to be Almost50 or Transcend. If Keychain killed Transcend Porkens is scum. So from the common view (Porkens vig which I don't believe) then the only person Keychain could kill is almost50.

Similarly the only person A50 could shoot without Porkens being scum is Keychain.

One of them has to have not shot anyone else we'd be looking at flips.

Therefore Keychain is town not vig, Town who shot Almost50, or mafia who shot Almost50 or mafia partner did a kill.

Repeat for Almost50 swapping word with Keychain.

Now let's break down their ISOs.

my problem with this analysis is that you start from the perspective of both keychain being scum

and

a50 being the vig, and then analyze the game from that viewpoint, but i'm not starting from that same perspective and so this analysis is basically useless to me. like, if you want me to put any stock into what you're saying i need a better reason for why keychain was scum than what you've provided. at the very least it seems you assume both keychain and a50 were killing roles, but i see no reason to believe why either of them were.

Keychain's last dying wish was for a Godel lynch and votes Transcend.

This strongly implies who to fucking nightkill. If it was already hammer then why the hell would Keychain vote Transcend and not Godel?

you believe keychain is scum, so are you saying she crumbed who she was going to nightkill? how does that make sense?

also, let's look at keychain's exact quote:

Assuming it's not twilight:

VOTE: Transcend

Since nobody's going to lynch Goedel today are they

for one, it was already hammer but the mod had posted without ending the day so we all thought that the day was still going. for two, she explicitly says that she's voting transcend because it seems like she can't get a godel wagon through.

even more, what are you concluding from that? it seems to me like you're implying that keychain crumbed or otherwise indicated who she was going to kill during the day, but i don't see any reason why she would do that.

[MathBlade]

Btw, I do believe UCV was hammered.. TWICE, so no need for me to switch my vote. Also NL is not an option so if the DL hits UCV is still the lynch.

My vote is on keychain to make a statement now. This is SCUM for sure.

This is how you do a statement vote and why Keychain's protest vote is weird.

What I find more likely is Mafia was trying to signal to SK who they were killing.

Almost 50 shot Keychain
Porkens killed Transcend and is scum with Keychain
And SK shot Almost50

In the case Porkens is Town who shot Transcend (like again WHY??? He was one of the active players)
Godel is scum, north is scum, having Fitz prob scum.

[northsidegal]

What I find more likely is Mafia was trying to signal to SK who they were killing.

why would scum do this?

[MathBlade]

The people off the wagon were Keychain, northsidegal, Havingfitz, not Mafia and Almost50.

We know there were no reciprocal shots.

If Keychain killed anyone it had to be Almost50 or Transcend. If Keychain killed Transcend Porkens is scum. So from the common view (Porkens vig which I don't believe) then the only person Keychain could kill is almost50.

Similarly the only person A50 could shoot without Porkens being scum is Keychain.

One of them has to have not shot anyone else we'd be looking at flips.

Therefore Keychain is town not vig, Town who shot Almost50, or mafia who shot Almost50 or mafia partner did a kill.

Repeat for Almost50 swapping word with Keychain.

Now let's break down their ISOs.

my problem with this analysis is that you start from the perspective of both keychain being scum

and

a50 being the vig, and then analyze the game from that viewpoint, but i'm not starting from that same perspective and so this analysis is basically useless to me. like, if you want me to put any stock into what you're saying i need a better reason for why keychain was scum than what you've provided. at the very least it seems you assume both keychain and a50 were killing roles, but i see no reason to believe why either of them were.

Keychain's last dying wish was for a Godel lynch and votes Transcend.

This strongly implies who to fucking nightkill. If it was already hammer then why the hell would Keychain vote Transcend and not Godel?

you believe keychain is scum, so are you saying she crumbed who she was going to nightkill? how does that make sense?

also, let's look at keychain's exact quote:

Assuming it's not twilight:

VOTE: Transcend

Since nobody's going to lynch Goedel today are they

for one, it was already hammer but the mod had posted without ending the day so we all thought that the day was still going. for two, she explicitly says that she's voting transcend because it seems like she can't get a godel wagon through.

even more, what are you concluding from that? it seems to me like you're implying that keychain crumbed or otherwise indicated who she was going to kill during the day, but i don't see any reason why she would do that.

Not starting from the most likely scenario is advantageous to you.

I am not going down the rabbit hole of Almost50 is vig again.

He is.

You just say you don't see it.

So I will work with one hand tied behind my back work with the bullshit assumption Porkens is the vig and we lynch Godel.

Because Porkens is not the vig. If he is he knows how to shoot better.

[MathBlade]

What I find more likely is Mafia was trying to signal to SK who they were killing.

why would scum do this?

No crossfire.

Mafia need dead bodies just as much as the SK.

[CommKnight]

Vote Count 2.4

[0]

Not_Mafia

[2]

Assemblerotws

Not_Mafia, havingfitz,
[0]

havingfitz

[0]

northsidegal

[1]

PMysterious

Gödel,
[2]

Gödel

northsidegal, MathBlade,
[1]

MathBlade

Assemblerotws,
[0]

Porkens

Note Voting:

PMysterious, Porkens,

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Day Ends:

(expired on 2017-11-24 16:00:00)

Mod Notes:

[Gödel]

MathBlade I have read your post like 3 times now, and maybe it is just because it is before 8 AM on Saturday, but you are only scum reading me under the assumption that porkens is the vig?

[PMysterious]

Btw, I do believe UCV was hammered.. TWICE, so no need for me to switch my vote. Also NL is not an option so if the DL hits UCV is still the lynch.

My vote is on keychain to make a statement now. This is SCUM for sure.

This is how you do a statement vote and why Keychain's protest vote is weird.

What I find more likely is Mafia was trying to signal to SK who they were killing.

Almost 50 shot Keychain
Porkens killed Transcend and is scum with Keychain
And SK shot Almost50

In the case Porkens is Town who shot Transcend (like again WHY??? He was one of the active players)
Godel is scum, north is scum, having Fitz prob scum.

Why I find interesting is the part in the bold. If this theory is still in the water, then I want to ask this.

The Scum only have 2 members, so why would Keychain signal to the SK who the Mafia was killing in the first place?

Keep in mind that there are the following that could possibly be alive, a Dietician, a Vigilante, a Roleblocker, and a Serial Killer (2 of which could kill Keychain outright, one that could make Day 2 the easiest day ever when it comes to voting, and one that could stop the Scum kill outright). It's a sacrifice that would turn Keychain's partner into a second SK on his own.

(On a different note, I apologize for my absence, I've been dealing with allergies over the past few days, so I was mostly resting, and doing things other than actual brain functions.)

[Porkens]

PMysterious, do you scumread Mathblade for their theory? Does it feel invented to you or do you just think it's wrong?

I speculate on A50's death: He was targeted because he was softing gunsmith, not vig. This is not an attempt to make people talk about whether gunsmith is alive or not.

I'm still mulling over keychain's death. My mind keeps telling me she's dead mafia, but I have no real reason to think that other than "lol transcend was town so he was right!" which is not a good reason.

[PMysterious]

PMysterious, do you scumread Mathblade for their theory? Does it feel invented to you or do you just think it's wrong?

I do not read Math as scum for the theory, but it's best to ask questions on a theory, to see if it is A: Backed up with evidence, B: Believed in, or C: Convincing enough.

I didn't mind most of the theory, except for the part I asked about, not because I believe Math is scum, but rather if it really is a logical line of reasoning for Scum given the set-up in question. Besides Scum, there are 2 other killers, which is my biggest concern with making that particular play.

[Porkens]

Huh? Why do you think of the town aligned big in the same breath as so?

[havingfitz]

Prodge. Will post nlt tomorrow.