[SETUP] Marked For Death

[Toto]

This should be balanced at 8p (theoretically) with EV ~45% townsided.


This set-up introduces a new role.

Marked For Death:

IC, announced at the beginning of the day, dies at the end of day unless all members of mafia are dead.

+ 6 VT
+ 2 Goons

Mafia has no night kill. Instead, every night mafia has to select one living VT and convert them to Marked For Death. They are announced as such the at the start of the next day, and die at the end of it.

Note:

this setup is theoretically equivalent to 6 D2+ Backup IC + 2 Goons, however the main difference here is that mafia is forced to kill the IC every night, and select which backup IC takes over. The reasons is that I speculate this makes the game more interesting for both parties.

[Toto]

So mafia can win by the end of d2.

Not sure I understand. They don't have night kill. They can only Mark.

[Toto]

this doesnt feel balanced to me. 2v7 is unbalanced and this doesnt seem like that much of a benefit to town?

It's math.

Vanilla 2v7 has ~30% Town WR.

This has 45%.

The main difference is that everyday you have a confirmed townie. So for example, in a 2v1 lylo normally chances would be 33%; here it is 50% because one of the townies is confirmed (marked for death).

[Toto]

Yeah here are town chances at every possible stage:

t=2 m=1: 50.00%
t=3 m=2: 25.00%
t=3 m=1: 50.00%
t=4 m=1: 62.50%
t=4 m=2: 25.00%
t=5 m=2: 37.50%
t=5 m=1: 62.50%
t=6 m=1: 68.75%

t=6 m=2

: 45.31%

(edited for no mark on d1 set up)

[Toto]

Yeah, I thought about that. I can actually remove the first Marked For Death role, and the theoretical EV should remain the same on a 8p set up.

I expect a D1 lynch on scum will be harder in practice since it requires a large fraction of town to cooperate.

[Toto]

Thanks, I think I'll try 6v2 to start with then.

[Toto]

If you need a review approval for this (you seemed unsure in the Queue thread), I'm happy to approve it too (at 6:2 with no d1 mark). I'd expect it to be slightly townsided, because scum can't get a persuasive/accurate town voice out of the game immediately (and will in fact give temporarily give their voice more weight), but that might well end up being outweighed by WIFOM in practice. In any case, it isn't far off.

Thanks!

I'm hoping to try this smaller set up a few times before I try to increase the player count to make sure it works in practice.

[Toto]

guaranteeing no higher than 40% winrate after 20 games, probably significantly less.

TBH I'm more worried that this is too much townsided. So I guess this makes me feel better.

You should Q in one of those 20 games and tell me how it feels.