Open 702: Vanilla Nightless Game Over
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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In their post they mention that his RVS would put me at L-3, which according to them is "Irresponsible and scummy".In post 27, Impede wrote:
How is RVS over?In post 18, mozamis wrote:so rvs i sover, happy to get a wagon going on archwing
Why Arch in particular?-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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I must agree with the assessment cythefly is town.
On the other hand, wherever do you(Commknight) get the logic that of Arch and my wagons, there must be scum? What about mozamis's or sesq's wagons? Or what about lucca261? Any of these voters (or lack thereof) could be scum. Are you suggesting that the current top 2 wagons have scum? Because that's what it looks like.
If we're looking at wagons, I would also like to mention the wagonee. Yes, I realize I'm including myself, but that's because I'm on the list of your wagon. Notice how you never mention archwing. Is he possible scum, or are you suggesting he must be innocent as he has such a large voting popularity?
If we were trying to look at wagons, then we need to look at all of them, as well as the players not voting. You should've looked at each and every wagon, and try to figure out the motives for each vote or non-vote, and see if that motive seems scummy. As it stands, your tunnel vision looks far more scummy than if you waited to do a read. I mean, for God's sake, it's post 31. Yes, I realize you could have some reads, but from what? We were barely out of RVS. (I digress about the first statement, as most motives were RVS)
Your assessment just seems... fluffy. I'd like to see more of your motives for such an early read and why you scumread specifically those two wagons.
FoS for now on Comm.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Can you answer the question? You've been asked for a response, and all we get is more fluff. I'm not going to vote you yet, but I'm dangerously close.In post 46, CommKnight wrote:
Did you even proofread your post before saying this?In post 39, cytheflyguy wrote:you're trying to back yourself into a corner.
Answer the question or I will vote you. (And I don't like voting without insufficient proof.)-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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...Good to know, I'll keep that in mind. (I think I remember reading a game similar to what you describe with you in it)In post 52, Luca Blight wrote:I'm not particularly scumreading Comm right now; I've played with him before and he is known for being a big-dick type of player, especially when analysing vote-counts.
Well CultOfAthena, allow me to point out my reasoning.
First, what the others have stated also rings true in my mind.
Second, Cy's post isverywell composed for a scum post. Now, don't get me wrong, I've played games with very convincing scum, but there's always some... drywall sticking out. His post feels genuine.
Third, Meh. Call it gut instinct.
Lastly, I'm going to use my favorite probability device, Punnett's Square. (Yes, I know it's for genetics, but I re-purposed it. It works.) This will be regarding Cy and Comm.
Let us presume the dominant gene would be town, resulting in town being (T). Scum, however would be the "recessive" gene, and thus come out as (s). So, our square would look like this.
TT | Ts
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Ts | ss
As we can see, the chances of only scum are fairly slim, at only a 25% chance. The chances of it being only town however, is also at a 25%. However, the chance of it being both town and scum is 50%, making it the most likely. We can also safely presume that at least one of them is town with a 75% chance of it being true. So, if we overlap the majorities, Ts is our most likely bet.
This of course, begs the question: Who is the scum? Well, probability can answer the most likely scum as well.
I will start with cytheflyguy. He has 4 posts as of the writing of this post. 50% of them are active scumhunting, or at least putting some pressure (37 and 39). 25% is the post where he votes Comm for seemingly just rubbing him the wrong way (35), although this is elaborated later in 39. 25% is... well, it's defensive, but fluffy. It's more of a sarcastic/questioning counter to Cult's 'attack', which is slightly fluffy. (50)
All together, of his posts, 75% was productive in some way. I chose to consider him town during the gap between 39 and 50, which is an 11 post gap. This of course, meant that at the time, 100% of his posts were productive in a scumhunting manner. I retain this view until further information is received.
(Although, interestingly enough, cy didnotvote during RVS)
We then peer at Commknight. He has 7 posts.
4 of these, are defensive posts. 75% are simply while good counters, are very short, and quite frankly, answer none of the questions posed to them (33, 36, 38). The other 25% is fluff. Pure fluffy fluff. (46)
1 of his posts go to RVS, and I'm going to ignore that, as there is little value in that post, although his wording is somewhat peculiar. (Notice, he is the only one to ever mention scum as a reason for RVS).
The other 2 are scumhunting. 50% is making a read on two wagons with tunnel vision as I pointed out earlier. Again, we were hardly out of RVS, what scumreading could there be to be made? (Now, don't get me wrong, sometimes RVS thing can be useful, but too rarely to rely on.) The other 50% is real scumhunting. Yay!
But... it seems like a good post, however the tl;dr to me reads as a rather fluffy post. To me it reads like: There's 4 mafia who really don't wanna get caught. We need to hardproof 5 townies, so town doesn't get mislynched. If mafia works together too early, lose. (Doesn't mafia have daychat? Can't they work together secretly, anyways?)
So, while Comm has a higher quantity of posts, they're also almost pure fluff other than some good points about numbers. On the other hand, almost all of cy's posts are working towards catching the scum. In the end, the 75% wins, and by definition, cy is behaving/posting far more like town.
So, I believe cy is likely town and Comm is likely scum(my) as the probabilities show it that way. However, this can be prone to change and should not be taken seriously in the light of any new groundbreaking slips or evidence. They could also both be town or both scum, but again, I read it as a Ts.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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[quote=
you seem to have not accounted for the fact that only a third of players are scum. and this statistical analysis.... it doesnt work. posts dont work like that. people dont work like that. logic doesnt work like that. nothing works like that. the only thing in mafia that even remotely works like that is votes, and even then its fairly inconsistent. and player counts i guess, but you cant do a lot with that. and maybe some other things in different setups but WHATEVER
and ultimately you just make the same conclusion you would have without the math. cy looks productive you and comm looks unproductive to you, because there is ZERO. objectivity in that report of yours. none at all. i think cy is mostly just saying lamist bullshit and meandering while comm is taking a strong but, difficult position and saying exactly what he needs to say with brevity.
[/quote]
I was not referring to the people. I'm referring to the fact there are 2 people who could be scum. There are 4 possible outcomes of their roles. I'm afraid logic does work like that. Logically, thus far cy has been more productive.
However, if you actually read my post, I maybe didn't imply it well enough, but I think commisgetting more productive. On the other hand, there is some cy weird things, for instance, their lack of RVS. (This could be attributed to not being online, but it is interesting.) I don't think they're super towny, I will admit some stupidity on my part, but I feel a lean for town on them.
Also, focusing on me much? Oh well.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Soo... not thinking black and white is wrong. Riight. Read their dang posts.
Also, if you're so smart then pray tell, tell us your reads Sesq.
And I am not wrong about everything, if you would only open your mind a little bit. Explain to me, why exactly I am wrong about everything.
And what the hel-ck do you mean strong but difficult position? Please explain that too, O' wise one.
(I'm starting to feel like our argument is turning into a TvT which I'd like to stop so we can focus on scum.)-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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The first one was also a sarcastic joke.
I see. I think I understand now. Sorry, I must've missed those posts. (read your iso. I see.)
I'm just glad I didn't rush in with my vote.
I slightly distrust arch, his jumpy OMGUS. Then again, my other susp seems to have been proven wrong (which I am perfectly willing to accept, I make mistakes.). On the other hand, not sure if this suspicion comes from an OMGUS reaction leftover.
Well, I'm not going to cuss and argue with you anymore. Unproductive.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Nyegh. After looking at 90, it is a hot mess. I think I fucked up along the lines. (won't lie, I'm not the greatest with percentages so I had an easier time with cy's 4 posts). I was honestly trying to go for an objective analysis, but I guess I fell into the confirmation bias anyways.
Although I feel I townread too early, as he hardly posts. Then again, still a town lean.
I feel Sesq and Luka are def town. As for the other reads? I haven't got my thoughts organized yet. Maybe Impede too? He seems to be getting townier and townier.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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I feel a little redundant, but I'm going to retract my townlean on Cy.
At the time, he seemed pretty townish but now?
Looking back, he kinda looks like scum who wanted a quick townread, posted a bit to seem townish, and then vanished off the face of the earth to be comfortably lurking.
Let me put it this way: in 90 the math said it was 75%. I failed to mention that this is due to the sparseness of his posts. Since there was less posted, there was less to judge him off. This of course, is convenient to seem townish, but a real towny would probably follow up and continue to try to gamesolve. (none of which he really does, fallacies are fallacies) It is far more convenient for scum to post little, and seem townish as possible, than post a lot and have more revealing information on their thoughts/play.
Slightly starting to scumlean Cy, but mostly null.
Oh and Sesq, do you need to be so damn toxic?-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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I dislike the vote Sesq put on you. I get that good play is important, but vote somebody for it? That's policy lynching imo.In post 263, Impede wrote:
Who is the townie in this scenario?In post 262, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:Also, poliy lynching for not playing to your ideal of good town play is no good. Scum need lynching, not townies.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Does anybody truly know who is town? There is always a chance you are town, and lynching on policy can hit town or scum. That helps scum, not town, especially when said policy lyncher is scum (not implying a lean). It just doesn't make sense to me to lynch based off of a policy rather than evidence.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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@CultOfAthena
Well, like I stated before, he presented a nice summed up paragraph on one of the 4. He makes a sorta townish play then vanishes. I get that life is busy, but most people can still get in a post or two. Besides, there is not much of a point in lurking unless A) You don't really have anything to contribute, which doesn't make sense considering the last time he posted was around 100 (to my memory) and it was short. B) This is vanilla and nightless. You don't need to lurk to try to avoid nightkill and get the investigative results safely. There is no power role that has to be wary and nervous about lynching/nk and thus lurks.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Response to 253, a very lackluster vote.In post 270, CultOfAthena wrote:
Where are you getting this idea from? What is this in response to?In post 262, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:Also, poliy lynching for not playing to your ideal of good town play is no good. Scum need lynching, not townies.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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He hasn't actually done anything in the time being. After those few posts, until Luca called him out, he did nothing. Why? Surely there was enough content for at least some posts.In post 283, CultOfAthena wrote:
Exactly. You seem to be suggesting that he's just coasting on the early town credit, but the fact that he's done "nothing" has been a product of his post count, not the content of his posts. Activity is NAI - you're suggesting a connection that doesn't actually mean anything.In post 282, Luca Blight wrote:
What are you talking about? He had literally done nothing in the time between being townread early on until I called him out on not doing anything in 252.In post 269, CultOfAthena wrote:
But is this from a lack of real content in his posts or a lack of activity? I think there's a distinction you're missing there.In post 252, Luca Blight wrote:Note for reference that Cy, having been widely townread early on, has done nothing since.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Zulfy I can't tell, but I can't remember what page he joined on. Remember, reading the game takes a bit. If Luca is correct and cy's been lurking then shouldn't he be up to speed?In post 288, CultOfAthena wrote:
Is Zulfy scum? I haven't seen anything from him - he's got the entire game to look at and he still can't comment on anything?In post 284, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:He hasn't actually done anything in the time being. After those few posts, until Luca called him out, he did nothing. Why? Surely there was enough content for at least some posts.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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That's actually very compelling. I dislike that buddying though, it tastes very psst, I'll buddy you and you save my hide. And the more you resist the buddy, the more he goes for it.In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=9781[spoiler]331#p9781331]post 303[/url], Luca Blight wrote:UC Voyager
122, 171, 191, 266 - A continuing theme of'town should/shouldn't be doing this!'. This is something UCV does when he is scum.
129 - Completely fake scumhunting. Looks contrived with one townread, one null read, one scum read, and no real reasoning for any of it.
141, 143,152, 155, 199 - Buddying me. As I explained before, he knows I know his meta well and that I tunnel on him once I catch on that he's scum, and he entered into this game with the plan of trying to appease me, no doubt about it.
146, 147, 174 - Fence-sitting. This is something I know he does as scum.
159 Asking if Impede's play is lurkscum; why can't he judge this for himself?
189 - non-committal and unexplained reads list where he gives scum leans but says he has no solid scum reads, but is apparently 'still hunting'.
222 - Responds to my vote on him for buddying with a further attempt at buddying, saying it's good I don't always consider those who side with me as being of the same alignment. He's also using emotion here to try and get me to change my mind.
Other than that, I have played with him many times now and can read this guy like a book. UCV is today's lynch - let's make it happen.
Unless anyone can give any good reason why weshouldn'tlynch UCV today?
I'm willing to believe you know his meta, and the argument you give is rather good. I honestly can't say why not. (Then again, you may be asking the wrong person.)
Vote: UC Voyager-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Well, I find some of the points to be still somewhat valid. Buuut, I was also half-asleep at 3 am when I said it was compelling. I still think it could be valid, but I need to check his meta.In post 334, Luca Blight wrote:
What happened to my case being 'compelling'?In post 327, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:I'm sorry, but I was up very late, but I'm going to have to unvote UCV. Looking back, if it really was his first (or one of the) scum game, and you've been using the meta against him, then I see a 7for7 fallacy. Can't follow that.
Also, Sesq is really bouncy with wagoning.
Unvote: UC Voyager
That's not the only meta I'm using against him. I'm not able to explain fully, but if you look through UCV's recent meta you will see what I'm talking about.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Okay, so I'm usually an analytical player. I watch other people for scumtells such as excessive RVS, OMGUS, and keeping an eye on the nightkill, as well as the probability of them being scum based on the tells and how productive they've been. Also, try to figure out the motives on stuff.In post 354, LaserGuy wrote:
Can you look at the questions I have for you in #302?In post 306, Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez wrote:Also, an addendum. I dislike throwing around my vote, so I take it a little seriously when it comes to voting.
HoweverI usually play in real life, so I have a tendency of lurking until I'm fairly certain of who's scum. This of course, doesn't work on Mafiascum. So, I'm trying to not apply all that I use irl since it can be a bit awkward. Normally, I wouldn't make such a hot mess such as 90 because I had my argument together and it's way easier to just raise your hand than to try to explain logic that got closed the first time.
So yes, usually that analysis playstyle works for me, but my online play is poorer than irl and I need to work on that.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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From what I hear, UC gets in games with Luca a lot, and Luca tunnels him. Now, we all know landing scum more than 1 game in a row is less common than landing town. I imagine being lynched D1 constantly regardless of alignment due to being 'read' must be tiring. Notice how his first post is an, "Oh goddamit, not another Luca game". If anything, the buddying may have been a desperate attempt to not get lynched D1 again.In post 411, Impede wrote:
This. This is what gives me pause. Is his frustration due to Luca falsely scumreading him? Or because he doesn't want to be "that scum" that gets lynched on D1 and it's all happening because Luca reads him like a book?In post 409, CultOfAthena wrote:I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of someone lynched so often day one, and I'm wondering when some element of frustration would come into that.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Okay, so I have been having log-in issues all day.
Well, I'm starting to think we have to lynch UCV because we're running out of time, and we really can't afford to prep a new case. (Plus I do find some of those bits compelling, I just am not totally confident in the vote and I hate voting without confidence)
On the other hand, I really don't want to seem bouncy on his lynch, and if I put him at L-1, there could be a quick hammer, unless anybody wants that?-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Would both of y'all stop? UC, you're being really immature at the moment. Yeah, I get you're upset, but somebody had to be lynched. Don't be miserable for the sake of making Luca miserable, it isn't worth it. Don't drink your own poison.
Luca, if you continually tunnel UC then how do you even know his town play? Being tunneled really isn't fun and it ruins his experience of not going past 1 day of playing with you.
Just stop it, both of you.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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I dislike your limiting of the scum pool Luca. Those 5 are the scummiest, but if scum was good enough, they would be on the non-lynch side of the pool. Not to mention, most of them weren't on your wagon. It makes me wonder if you're scumhunting based on who jumped on the wagon. (and yes, I realize this argument could get me into the pool, and I'm wondering why I'm not since your argument on most of them seems to be mainly, reluctant to lynch)
Also, I keep forgetting to bring this up, but what was with 130 and 508? Both times your lists don't really give an objective reason as to why. Also, 130 made you seem rather confident in who the scum team is. You already guessed one. I'll be intrigued if you're correct again. Now you're voting cult, another on that original list.
I must agree that Zulfy is quite lurky, and so was Arch. We can conclude that Arch was busy, but I wonder why Zulfy is so lurky unless that's his playstyle or scum? His last post was a freakin prod dodge.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Excuse me? If you ask me, the very notion of arguing the scum pool to me implies you're thinking this through a lot. Who says you're not thinking through?In post 575, CultOfAthena wrote:
Are you saying you're just sheeping everyone else's reasons? Also, again - nothing had happened in relation to the UCV lynch when you initially voted me. You can't point to everyone else's reasons for that one.In post 574, Sesq wrote:1. because i dont like repeating shit and you're annoying me. read everyone else's reasons and the ones ive provided. no scumgames that would be relevant, or towngames. its been a while since ive had my head really in the game.
2. all your complaints with luca's play
I assume you're talking about the "lynchpool". There isnothingbeneficial for town in restricting more than half of the alive players from being questioned. That alone should be reason enough, but I've talked more in-depth about this previously.
I resent the idea that holding this opinion means that I'm not thinking things through.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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I'd like to see your thoughts. You've been rather voted for being lurky and I want to hang onto my vote thusfar.
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Not really.In post 596, mozamis wrote:
THIS IS A SCUM POST.In post 573, CultOfAthena wrote:So do the reasons that you think I'm scum go beyond my relation to the UC Voyager lynch?
Scum are always desperate to know WHY people are voting for them, so they can "refute" the point. Town often dont really care why people are vitng for them, or will just tell the other person to STFU etc
I feel like town ought to give reasons as well, because if somebody is strong scumreading you, you need to explain why not. Y'all are same team, aim at scum, wasting time over town is bad. Scumhunting not townhunting. (usually you can kill 2 birds with one stone and find town while scum hunting) Also, if all townies never defended themselves then they'd be lynched and we'd be lost.In post 598, Lucky2u wrote:
This goes well with my philosophy that town should make scum hunting their priority, not avoiding their own lynch.In post 596, mozamis wrote:
THIS IS A SCUM POST.In post 573, CultOfAthena wrote:So do the reasons that you think I'm scum go beyond my relation to the UC Voyager lynch?
Scum are always desperate to know WHY people are voting for them, so they can "refute" the point. Town often dont really care why people are vitng for them, or will just tell the other person to STFU etc-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Mmm. Then your argument makes sense. Hunting is important. It sort of sets up a, I'm town and let's find scum objectivity to the rest of us. If he's not scumhunting then he likely knows who scum is.In post 602, mozamis wrote:
exactly, thats what i meant, he is trying to survive, not find scum, hence he wants to know why i scum read him.In post 598, Lucky2u wrote:not avoiding their own lynch.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Doesn't maf have a private daychat? I'm fairly certain they don't need to signal. Unless they're timing something. Which I doubt they are.In post 604, Sesq wrote:
no need to signal with daychatIn post 591, mozamis wrote:VOTE: unvote
the speed of this lynch is worrying.
and impede just "parking" that vote there, when zulfy cant be far from being lynched?
Migth even be Impede signalling to his scu buddies that he wants them to lynch Zulfy "I'm defintely gonna be on this wagon, lads"
also moz: you're wrong. you're really wrong about that. athena is obvscum but not for that reason.-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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Meh. I stand by my post. Moz's play makes me nervous and feel like he's scum. But hey, lynch me. I'm too scummy, right?In post 759, Luca Blight wrote:I kind of want to lynch Zulfy as I don't see that slot producing anything this game. The only thing that gives me pause was the scummy-looking wagon against him, but that could be scum looking to bus while knowing the wagon would naturally die down when Zulfy started to post.
It's almost a coinflip between Zaraki and Impede who look equally scummy. I'll punt for the former.
VOTE: Zaraki-
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Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez Goon
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In theory, it would likely be because we have a lesser amount of information and it's mostly non-towny, it'd make sense. Buuut, policy lynches, I do believe he said were not good, yet his strongest is a policy lynch. I must call bull on that point. (Not that if he isn't town, he isn't trying. I made a post like that too)In post 767, mozamis wrote:
its a lot of waffle as well - he gives town "percentages" but his strongest read was the zulfy policy lynch!In post 762, CultOfAthena wrote:I sincerely doubt that scum almost certainly about to get lynched gives town the wealth of
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