Open 702: Vanilla Nightless Game Over

[LaserGuy]

VOTE: Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez

For trying too hard with #12.

[LaserGuy]

So if I were fishing for a reaction, how do you think you'd fare in that department?

Also am I wrong? Can you prove it?

I fully realize I'm taking the bait, but I'm not one of the people you targeted so that holds no water, sadly.

And that's the thing. I cannot prove or disprove you being right or wrong. I'm simply pretty sure you just took a wild guess and now that someone is asking for reasoning you're trying to back yourself into a corner.

Your argument is a logical fallacy. Specifically Ad Ignorantum, where you are acting as if something is true simply because it has not been proven to be false. Of course I can't prove you to be wrong, regardless of role. Because of that, you would probably say something along the lines of "Well if it can't be proven false, then it must be true", when, in fact, that's not how logical arguments work, I'm afraid.

All I'm asking for is reasons, my dude. You looked suspicious for what you did and I asked for proof to back it up.

cytheflyguy is Town.

[LaserGuy]

I'm not a fan of the cy townreads at all. It doesn't take a townie to point out logical fallacies. Trying to turn a game of mafia into debate club is actually a scumread for me - scum's knowledge of the game won't affect their posting at all if all they're doing is arguing logic or theory.

Impede, zaraki, LG, mind explaining what makes cy town in your eyes?

Because the reasoning in cy's response is only true if he is Town. Scum!cy obviously knows whether or not scum would be on the wagon and could easily prove it if he really wanted to.

[LaserGuy]

I'm not a fan of the cy townreads at all. It doesn't take a townie to point out logical fallacies. Trying to turn a game of mafia into debate club is actually a scumread for me - scum's knowledge of the game won't affect their posting at all if all they're doing is arguing logic or theory.

Impede, zaraki, LG, mind explaining what makes cy town in your eyes?

Because the reasoning in cy's response is only true if he is Town. Scum!cy obviously knows whether or not scum would be on the wagon and could easily prove it if he really wanted to.

Just to elaborate... the fact that it apparently didn't occur to cy that this would be the case is why I feel this is likely coming from Town. More of dumb tell than anything else.

[LaserGuy]

I'm not a fan of the cy townreads at all. It doesn't take a townie to point out logical fallacies. Trying to turn a game of mafia into debate club is actually a scumread for me - scum's knowledge of the game won't affect their posting at all if all they're doing is arguing logic or theory.

Impede, zaraki, LG, mind explaining what makes cy town in your eyes?

Because the reasoning in cy's response is only true if he is Town. Scum!cy obviously knows whether or not scum would be on the wagon and could easily prove it if he really wanted to.

Just to elaborate... the fact that it apparently didn't occur to cy that this would be the case is why I feel this is likely coming from Town. More of dumb tell than anything else.

So how do you think he would have answered it as scum?

I would have put it as null if there was a comment to the effect of "Only scum know the answer to this".

[LaserGuy]

Because the reasoning in cy's response is only true if he is Town. Scum!cy obviously knows whether or not scum would be on the wagon and could easily prove it if he really wanted to.

What? Elaborate on this - cy's 39 seems entirely separated from his alignment.

The only way that cy cannot prove this to be true is if he is Town. Scum can easily prove this, they just wouldn't want to. The phrasing suggests that cy did not consider this.

Post #90 from Zaraki is a hot mess. There's a lot that's weird here... like he says he townread cy between 39 and 50 when he posted that read on #43. Gives cy credit both for my reasoning (dumb tell), but also having a well-composed post which... isn't really something that is hard to fake. Big probability argument that doesn't prove anything. This all looks like bs to me, and this seems like a really excessive explanation to his initial read in #43. I don't believe for a second this was his reasoning at the time he posted his townread of cy. Leaning scum on him, and if Zaraki is scum, would not be surprised if one of cy or Comm turns up scum as well.

Sesq looking good. Lucky looking scummy, Luca too. (Did we seriously have a Lucca, Luca and Lucky? Can we lynch of these characters on general principle?)

Comm is null. Did he ever explain why he made that initial post about the wagons? Doesn't really look like it. #55 of his is bothering me a bit, but need to think on it some more.

I don't like #126/#127 from mozamis. FoS on a replacement that has just joined the game off a null slot? Townread on lucky for effort? Bleh.

Impede has done nothing productive so far. Archwing is just as bad.

Anyone I missed is null and needs to post more.

[LaserGuy]

@Laser:

why do I look scummy?

In this type of game, I feel it is very likely there is going to be a lot of SvS infighting early on. You and Lucky's interaction has this vibe to me... you start with a discussion about Comm's intentions, but very quickly Comm is sidelined out of the discussion without any really input from him and you proceed to tunnel each other for the next six pages. The fact that Comm actually commented on your discussion at #100 and neither of you either asked him a question or wanted him to weigh in seems to suggest that neither of you are really interested in Comm at all. This is particularly unsettling since as of #172 don't actually think Lucky is scum, in which case it's not clear to me why you've spent so much energy on this. I'm leaning SvS on this whole interaction.

[LaserGuy]

This sucks. Weak PoE. Also makes me think you're town.

Why does having a weak PoE make you think moz is Town?

so far

Town
Luca, Comm, Moz

Can you explain this townread on moz?

My preferred lynch today is UCV. I have experience with him and know his style well - this really feels like his scum game to me. I've been trying my best not to tunnel on him as I'm aware I have a tendancy to, but it really feels as if he's trying to buddy me to get me on his side so I won't go for him.

Quoting this mostly to make a note for myself to try to take a meta dive on UCV and see if this checks out.

depending on who you ask according to Luca, i am always scummy. (not true) regardless of alignment, but I joke around as town and don't try.

This wasn't the impression I got from Luca's post above. He was suggesting that you two have a history and he has a fairly good sense of how you play as either alignment. Do you disagree?

Nyegh. After looking at 90, it is a hot mess. I think I fucked up along the lines. (won't lie, I'm not the greatest with percentages so I had an easier time with cy's 4 posts). I was honestly trying to go for an objective analysis, but I guess I fell into the confirmation bias anyways.

In post 90, you listed four reasons for saying you believed cy was Town in post #43. Which reasons did you have for believing he was Town at the time you posted that read, and which ones came later?

Have you tried this sort of analysis in mafia before? Has it provided you with anything fruitful? I don't really understand what you were hoping to accomplish here. I mean, probability is extremely useful in Mafia, but I don't understand what you were hoping to determine with your particular application. Just a note that 75% Town on one player isn't actually that strong anyway, since your prior should be 66% Town based on the known distribution of player alignment.

Although I feel I townread too early, as he hardly posts. Then again, still a town lean.

I don't understand this. Your reasons for townreading him in post #43/90 were based off of the content that he had posted. If those reasons were true when you posted them, there doesn't seem to be a really compelling reason for you not to continue townreading him now. If those reasons are invalid now, they were just as invalid before. Granted, he's been lurking, but not even enough for a prod, I don't think.

I feel Sesq and Luka are def town. As for the other reads? I haven't got my thoughts organized yet. Maybe Impede too? He seems to be getting townier and townier.

Why do you feel Sesq, Luka and Impede are town?

I'm not particularly scumreading Lucky at the moment - although I disagree with most of his posts I'm inclined to believe his intentions were genuine.

I'm not sure I believe the latter point.

I never called Luca scum or implied I was scum reading him. Did you think I did or are you misrepresenting me?

I'm not sure I believe this either.

Disagree that they are both possibilities? no. I disagree that the town version of that scenario is what was happening, I believe it was the scum version of that scenario. If he really was reaction fishing, which again he never stated he was doing that he just implied he might, then wow did he pull it off in the dumbest way possible.

I'm amazed how much you've managed to milk out of this without producing anything of value. I think this is earned.

VOTE: Lucky2u

I'm still trying to work out you in my head if you are noob or scum Impede. The thing that has pinged me the most from you was that "Lynch me" comment. 9/10 that comment comes from scum. However, given sesq being an unapologetic douche I can kind of see why you said it. In your 226 you fence sat about UCV fence sitting. Fence sitting-ception if you will. He previously topped a reads list for you as town, still the same?

Amused that you are fence sitting on Impede while berating him for fence sitting

However, I might as well post some reads just to be relevant again.

Town

Luca Blight
Impede
Laserguy
CultofAthena-Town/Null

Null

UC
Zulfy
Sesq

Scum

Lucky2u-Honestly putting him here
CommKnight
mozamis

Why Comm scum? Why Impede Town? What about Zaraki?

I feel like a sheep since this is popular consensus. I work better when there's something I want to contradict.

Who do you feel this is consensus of? I think you are the only person with a strong townread on me. Comm is being read more townie than not, I think. Impede is being read more scummy than not.

By the way, here's a fresh take that's sure to get some debate started - there really isn't all that great of a reason for Luca to be as widely townread as he is.

Not sure why this is a fresh take... I mentioned in #167/214 that Luca looked scummy to me and you commented on both posts in 227/230. But okay, what's your read on Luca?

[LaserGuy]

@Laser:

You seem to be maintaining the view that me and Lucky are scum buddies which was based on your 214 which I refuted with my216.

I just want you to explain why you still seem to feel this way.

Your comment in #216 doesn't really affect how I am reading the situation at all. I never thought that you had a problem with Comm. I said my impression was that you had a buddy interaction with Lucky, with Comm as the subject and the two of you on opposing sides of an ultimately spurious argument.

[LaserGuy]

Also, an addendum. I dislike throwing around my vote, so I take it a little seriously when it comes to voting.

Can you look at the questions I have for you in #302?

[LaserGuy]

@CoA: you should hop on. L-1 is quite a powerful tool for town. Not like you're signing the death certificate just yet.

I'm fine, for now. See 419.

I asked you this in #302 but maybe you missed it (admittedly, giant wall post): What is you read on Luca? You indicated that you didn't think his townie credit was warranted.

Not really interested in joining the UCV wagon at the moment... Happy with my vote where it is.

[LaserGuy]

You're happy with your vote where it is, even though it is completely meaningless as it stands. UCV is such a clear lynch candidate that the game is essentially divided into two sets of players - those voting UCV, and those who aren't. Everything else is just irrelevant detail at the moment.

For those not voting UCV, you need to a) explain why you don't want a UCV lynch, b) explain why you want to vote someone else and c) push that wagon as hard as I've pushed my lynch target.

Pretty much the only reason that I would have UCV on the table today is because if we don't lynch him, we're just going to have to go through this nonsense again tomorrow unless we decide to lynch you instead. UCV is fairly null to me... I have a stronger scumread on you than I do on him. I find your case on him quite unconvincing. Consequently, I don't have any particularly good reason to trust you or your read on UCV, so I'm not going to follow you.

Lucky's contributions are completely vapid, his vote on UCV is opportunistic and he has no progression to support doing so--quite the opposite, in fact, considering your disagreement with him earlier in the day.

[LaserGuy]

You're happy with your vote where it is, even though it is completely meaningless as it stands. UCV is such a clear lynch candidate that the game is essentially divided into two sets of players - those voting UCV, and those who aren't. Everything else is just irrelevant detail at the moment.

For those not voting UCV, you need to a) explain why you don't want a UCV lynch, b) explain why you want to vote someone else and c) push that wagon as hard as I've pushed my lynch target.

Pretty much the only reason that I would have UCV on the table today is because if we don't lynch him, we're just going to have to go through this nonsense again tomorrow unless we decide to lynch you instead. UCV is fairly null to me... I have a stronger scumread on you than I do on him. I find your case on him quite unconvincing. Consequently, I don't have any particularly good reason to trust you or your read on UCV, so I'm not going to follow you.

Lucky's contributions are completely vapid, his vote on UCV is opportunistic and he has no progression to support doing so--quite the opposite, in fact, considering your disagreement with him earlier in the day.

Perhaps you could explain your scumread on me then. The only thing I've heard you say on the matter so far is that I might be Lucky's partner because you scumread him and I was arguing with him earlier, and you expect scum to argue with scum early on. Feeble reasoning at best.

Going to leave this for tomorrow. If UCV flips scum, you're like 98% conftown (and I'm like 75% chance of getting mislynched, but w/e), so I'm fine waiting for the flip at this point.

Why is my case on UCV unconvincing to you?

Spoiler: Long

Let's break this down:

122, 171, 191, 266 - A continuing theme of 'town should/shouldn't be doing this!'. This is something UCV does when he is scum.

171 doesn't actually say this. Neither does 191. 122 and 266 do I suppose. Assertion that this is something UCV does as scum (and not as town) is unsupported. I've seen plenty of people talk this way as either alignment so if you’re planning to argue that this is scum meta, you need to show that he does this as scum and not as Town.

129 - Completely fake scumhunting. Looks contrived with one townread, one null read, one scum read, and no real reasoning for any of it.

This post is 19 minutes after he replaced in. It's a wonder he has any reads at all, especially if he hadn't read the thread before posting. A couple of gut reads at this point does not seem unreasonable.

Given only three reads and three possible alignments, having one read of each type is actually the most probable scenario by pure chance.

141, 143,152, 155, 199 - Buddying me. As I explained before, he knows I know his meta well and that I tunnel on him once I catch on that he's scum, and he entered into this game with the plan of trying to appease me, no doubt about it.

141 does not look like buddying to me. I guess 143, 152, 199 could be construed as buddying. 155 does not look like buddying to me. I get more of a LAMIST vibe from UCV's posting, both here and in some of the ones up in 122/266, though you have not demonstrated that this alignment indicative.

146, 147, 174 - Fence-sitting. This is something I know he does as scum.

None of these appear to be fence-sitting to me at all. He appears to be saying something is NAI. In either case, you have not demonstrated that he does not do this as Town. More generally, the problem with a lot of this read is that you're saying "I know he does this as scum", but unless it is something he does only, or at least, much more often, as scum, it isn't a particularly useful tell.

159 Asking if Impede's play is lurkscum; why can't he judge this for himself?

This doesn't look particularly alignment-indicative to me.

189 - non-committal and unexplained reads list where he gives scum leans but says he has no solid scum reads, but is apparently 'still hunting'.

This is pretty much the only point in your case I agree with.

222 - Responds to my vote on him for buddying with a further attempt at buddying, saying it's good I don't always consider those who side with me as being of the same alignment. He's also using emotion here to try and get me to change my mind.

Okay, how is this alignment indicative? Would Town!UCV not also want to change your mind here?


Other stuff...

My gut is that replacement/ragequit is usually more Town-indicative than scum, but I don't really have a good enough sense of the site meta here to be able to say what the replacement meta is here beyond that people replace out here a lot more willingly regardless of alignment, than what I'm used to.

I feel there is enough to warrant a UCV lynch even if you entirely exclude meta. Just note his reaction to being voted - he isn't angry because I'm tunneling him, as I've been doing it for a while this game without him getting angry. He's annoyed that it's working and that I will successfully get him lynched again.

My impression is that townies get upset about being mislynched more often than scum get upset about being justifiably lynched. Excluding meta though, I’m really struggling to see a case here.

If we shouldn't lynch UCV then who should we lynch instead?

Lucky, Zaraki, you, Zulfy, or Impede would all be decent choices. Putting this all together, I could probably get a scumlean out of this. Generously, I'd say that it's about a coinflip that UCV will turn up scum.

Why is Lucky's argument with me earlier in the day relevant to him voting UCV?

I find it odd that he would be so willing to sheep your case without question when he so strongly disagreed with you on principle earlier in the game.

[LaserGuy]

I disagree that Luca is conftown if UCV flips scum. Scum have daytalk and wacky gambits are very possible. I'll explain more postflip.

I said 98% to include the possibility of that sort of thing, but I think it's probably about as close as we can realistically expect to get to conftown in this sort of setup.

[LaserGuy]

Was Comm prodded at some point? It's been over 48 hours for him I think. Zulfy still hasn't posted anything of significance.

[LaserGuy]

Fine, let's keep this thing moving.

VOTE: UC Voyager

[LaserGuy]

Well, when you're wrong, you're wrong. Good catch Luca.

Going back and looking at some interactions between UCV and others

Spoiler: UCV + Impede

Luca doesn't ATE. I don't remember seeing ATE from him, and i doubt he is actually doing it. he has a solid game style. no need to change

are you sure you know what ATE is? IF not, it is appeal to emotion. Im sure you know this though

He didn't even seem to acknowledge it. Im not sure what to think of that.

He didn't even seem to acknowledge it. Im not sure what to think of that.

I have seen town ignore cases on them, but i have also seen

A LOT

of times

is implede's scum play a LURK!SCUM?

If so, i would totally vote for him. Im still trying to make reads, though it is early in the game

I'm not liking how impede keeps saying he will post later, but I see where he is coming from. I have done that as town.
His ATE case made no since

Finally caught up. Here's where I'm at as far as reads. Not going to post a ton of rationale since I need to get back to work (on lunch right now), but most of it is in my previous posts from the past hour. Feel free to question anything in particular that doesn't jive and I'll explain.

Town

to

Null

to

Scum

:

Sesq, Moz

UCV*, Luca, Cy

----slight

Laser*, Comm

----leaning town

CoA*, Arch('s slot)*

----leaning scum

Lucky, Zaraki

*indicates a need for more content. Don't feel great about these reads.

Luca doesn't ATE. I don't remember seeing ATE from him, and i doubt he is actually doing it. he has a solid game style. no need to change

are you sure you know what ATE is? IF not, it is appeal to emotion. Im sure you know this though

Yeah. See my earlier post. My foot is already epically in my mouth multiple times over this game. Hoping to try and establish some added value credibility here on out.

so far

Town
Luca, Comm, Moz

town lean
comm, lucky, sesq

Null
cy, Laser, Cult

scum lean
Archwing slot, Impede

I don have any solid scum reads yet, but im still hunting

I think I want to switch Luca and Moz after looking at that again. Meh.

because they made a case on you?

You should make an actual case. OMGUS isn't a good reason for voting, but it looks terrible to OMGUS like that.


im wondering, Is there a good reason to vote Luca or Moz. They have been extremely townie so far.

I'm townreading both of them to be clear. Definitely not an OMGUS lol. I think I townread Luca moreso than Moz... hence that comment.

why would you ask someone to lynch you?

tbh, this looks like ATE to me. and the fact you were trying use ATE earlier disturbs me.

why would you ask someone to lynch you?

tbh, this looks like ATE to me. and the fact you were trying use ATE earlier disturbs me.

Because he's clearly not read my posts and is falling victim to conf bias. Don't like his playstyle at all. If I'm going to be on the receiving end of it all game for no reason then I'll either have to get used to ignoring it or end up dead. It's a waste because I feel relatively strongly that he's town and should be going after players presenting legitimate scumtells.

why would you ask someone to lynch you?

tbh, this looks like ATE to me. and the fact you were trying use ATE earlier disturbs me.

Because he's clearly not read my posts and is falling victim to conf bias. Don't like his playstyle at all. If I'm going to be on the receiving end of it all game for no reason then I'll either have to get used to ignoring it or end up dead. It's a waste because I feel relatively strongly that he's town and should be going after players presenting legitimate scumtells.

Luca has a really good play style. i have seen him figure out who the scum is several times. He takes a good approach to the game as well. What he is doing now isn confbias. if he was confbias, he would probably be on me right now.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=73370
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=73677
these are some examples of when i confbias. confbias generally doesn't happen til nylo or mylo.

another thing

confbias is a town move

. If luca is confbiasing you, isn't your main scum read moz who also would be confbias you? Im still trying to figure out how it isn't

OMGUS

.

I find it very strange how you kept rather silent until this case formed on you, and you started to post again. It makes little to no since.

Finally caught up. Here's where I'm at as far as reads. Not going to post a ton of rationale since I need to get back to work (on lunch right now), but most of it is in my previous posts from the past hour. Feel free to question anything in particular that doesn't jive and I'll explain.

Town

to

Null

to

Scum

:

Sesq, Moz

UCV*, Luca, Cy

----slight

Laser*, Comm

----leaning town

CoA*, Arch('s slot)*

----leaning scum

Lucky, Zaraki

*indicates a need for more content. Don't feel great about these reads.

lol. why did i think this said you were scum reading moz and Luca...... my bad. i miss read

lol. why did i think this said you were scum reading moz and Luca...... my bad. i miss read

All good lol. I definitely agree that confbias is a town move. Hence why I'm accusing my strongest town read of being guilty of it.

Luca has a really good play style. i have seen him figure out who the scum is several times. He takes a good approach to the game as well. What he is doing now isn confbias. if he was confbias, he would probably be on me right now.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=73370
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=73677
these are some examples of when i confbias. confbias generally doesn't happen til nylo or mylo.

@UCV

: Just to be super clear, I think we understand each other now more or less, but don't want you to think incorrectly. I was referring to Sesq with the confbias comment. In fact I don't think I've addressed Luca directly much at all. Also, what is "NYLO"? Typo?

So i just reread Impede's more recent post. I really miss read them which is very obv because i thought he said he was scum reading Luca and Moz, but they were not.

How do you know that I'm Town? No one thus far has really townread me with any confidence.

he didn't say he knew btw

I think the case against UCV is decent based on not having any flip data. I want to know though:

@Luca

, for the sake of argument, what would you consider the

not scummy

alternative to UCV's behavior. In other words, what set of criteria would cause you to form a townread on him?

Basically you're asking me how UCV's behaviour this game could come from a Town perspective?

If so, you should ask that question to whoever is against UCV's lynch.

Luca, do you think Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez is scum for not staying on my wagon? how about CY?

do you even have any other scum reads. this entire time, you have been targeting me and no one else.


MOZ
what are your reasons for voting me. it honestly looks like you just sheeping me, and sheeping isn't always the best thing to do.


Implede
so you unvoted me for a little? Were you expecting my wagon to keep going on without you, but when another person unvoted, you decided you still needed to be on it?

Luca, what is my town meta. you have done a lot of talking about my scum meta. how about my town meta. all i have heard you refer to my town play is that im still scummy (which isn't true) as town.

also

you know my scum meta. i don't ask to be bused. if you are implying that Implede is scum, the way he is doing it doesn't fit my scum meta.

also

Luca
why are you so quick to say Implede is bussing when his post looks similar to a few others who voted me? are you just setting up one misslynch at a time. What happens when i flip town? he is scum for being on a town wagon?
It honestly seems like you are guiding miss lynches right now. I have had this hard town read on you, but since your case on me has started, you seem to be acting more and more scummy.

Not really what I was getting at.

But I think I've seen enough. The fence sitting looks bad enough, but combined with that jankity vote it just comes off wrong.

VOTE: UC Voyager

This is L-2 by my count

@Luca: I wasn't asking you to defend your read (Moz...) or defend a town!UCV position. I was asking you what behavior you would expect from town!UCV. He is accusing you of scumreading him no matter what. So in what scenario would you say "damn UCV seems towny af right now".

pedit: @UCV: my vote was parked on Moz from RVS, not on you. Dunno why you'd ask this. Also your question about what your town meta is is exactly what I'm getting at with my Q to Luca

@ Impede - you are voting UV. So you think he is scum, right?
and yet you are more concerned with arguing with Lucca than pshing your scum read. you are scum.

I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of someone lynched so often day one, and I'm wondering when some element of frustration would come into that.

This. This is what gives me pause. Is his frustration due to Luca falsely scumreading him? Or because he doesn't want to be "that scum" that gets lynched on D1 and it's all happening because Luca reads him like a book?

I disagree that Luca is conftown if UCV flips scum. Scum have daytalk and wacky gambits are very possible. I'll explain more postflip.

Including myself and excluding UVC, there are four other people who gave little/literally no reasoning for their reads. I feel that UVC's meta has blinded you in the order of who you want to lynch, but these should be addressed as well down the line if we're reasoning that poor reads=a larger likelihood of being scum or not.

Sesq already remarked this in his own way, but most of the readslists you posted actually did have rationale associated with them, but they were in that person's ISO. It's not uncommon for someone to form opinions on events/posts as they transpire and then summarize them in a readslist at some point. I can't see how you'd be so detached from this game to actually hold this opinion...

This also aged poorly, as now that we know UCV is scum, it comes off as Alignment-Informed. "I feel that UVC's meta has blinded you in the order of who you want to lynch, but

these should be addressed as well down the line

if we're reasoning that poor reads=a larger likelihood of being scum or not." I could be wrong, but that bolded portion almost says "once we lynch UCV and he flips scum, we should also scrutinize these people".

On the other hand, it's kind of obvscum to come to the defense of a partner on D1, but Occam's Razor and all....
VOTE: cytheflyguy

I think that's all of the interesting ones. Was going try to do everyone in one post, but there's way too much to work with so I'll get to some other people in subsequent posts. Here's what I'm seeing:
Posts 143, 146, 147, 159, 174, 199 UCV makes a bunch of early commentary that's sort of a soft defense of Luca and a weak push on Impede. Impede gives UCV a townread in 186 despite also marking him as "needs more content", followed by a weird interaction between them where UCV misinterprets Impede's reads list, sorted out by 201. There's generally lots of low-stakes banter between them up until 338. UCV has Impede down as one of his scumleans during most of this sequence, but never actually votes for him. Impede is under pressure from Luca, moz, and Sesq during this sequence, though he doesn't end up picking up a lot of votes.

Luca cases UCV in 303, so interactions following this are ones where Scum!Impede needs to decide whether to defend his buddy or not. #338 he sort of defends UCV ("what would you consider the not scummy alternative to UCV's behavior?", then goes for the vote on him in 347. He makes an attempt to defend his #338 question when moz and Luca give him a hard time about it, but drops this line very quickly, with only a half-hearted attempt again in 411. Interestingly, while there's tonnes of back-and-forth between Impede/UCV prior to Luca's case, they go totally silent on each other as soon as Luca starts going after UCV in earnest. By my count, there are 21 interactions between Impede and UCV prior to Luca posting his case on 303 (where they are directly talking to each other), and basically just one afterward (#347 where Impede votes UCV). When the lynch is inevitable, Impede tries to undermine the townie credit that Luca earned here.

I think it's somewhat likely that UCV realized that Luca had his number at #303 and probably told his buddies to bus him, which led to Impede's awkward defense and quick vote. Impede then duck-and-covered until EoD and avoided interacting with UCV as much as he could. UCV in turn was likely bussing Impede in the sequence from 140-250ish, but didn't want to actually put a vote down because a wagon hadn't really started rolling yet.

VOTE: Impede

[LaserGuy]

VOTE: zulfy

Normally I would say "we should have done this day 1" but since we caught scum, I'll let you guys off!
but really, this guy has doen LITERALLY no scum hunting all game, less than when town lurk.
i've seen scum lurk like this many times.

obv, there is a chance of him being town and lurking, but if so, we have 1 mislynch available, yeah??
but, as i say this is mainly a genuine "this guy is scum" lynch, with a twenty per cent PL Lurker lynch as well.

Cult is still my other top pick for scum.
Who the last scum is I'm less clear now.

hang on, zulfy replace archwing, right?
then we should def. lynch him.

Hm, so I can see this being a good vote, but Archwing replaced out after 5 posts and his slot is apparently too busy to play the game he signed up for, so I'm not sure if this is a correlation of unfortunate events, or repetitive scummy behavior.

We're going to have to deal with the slot sooner or later. Even if it does turn out to be a Town slot, it's not like they're doing anything to help out. There isn't really any harm in doing this.

VOTE: Zulfy

[LaserGuy]

We're going to have to deal with the slot sooner or later. Even if it does turn out to be a Town slot, it's not like they're doing anything to help out. There isn't really any harm in doing this.

VOTE: Zulfy

What's the need to deal with him today as opposed to in the future? Presumably if the lurking is actually due to real life reasons and not an in-game strategy, that should be cleared up sometime later. This seems uncharacteristically concise and nonanalytical, compared to my playerimage of you.

Remember, there is no night kills or power roles in this setup. Therefore the usual reasons for not wanting to lynch lurkers, or even marginally scummy players don't really exist here... we don't risk losing a strong townie voice or PR by lynching them. We just lose a slot that we can't read. It's likely that sooner or later, especially once we get down to only one or two scum left, we're probably just going to have to systematically lynch a couple of the players that people are fairly uncertain about, and that's fine. We have mislynches to spare, and with each scum we lynch, we can afford to lose another townie.

Yes, Zulfy could someday produce some great content that would make it worth keeping them around. Frankly, I think their content will need to be truly speculator to get them up to near-conftown status. Or they could continue to lurk and prod dodge for the foreseeable future. How much time is worth waiting for them to do something on the off-chance that they contribute something of value?

[LaserGuy]

So just to clarify, today we are lynching one of the following:

cytheflyguy
Zulfy
LaserGuy
Athena
Comm

My quick thoughts on these:

Zulfy: I'm fine calling this a policy lynch. He might be scum, he might not be. As I said in 584, he's not contributing to Town, so unless his content improves dramatically in the next little while, I don't see any reason to keep him around... the loss to Town is so minimal here there's no reason not to.

Athena: Town. I'm seriously baffled by Sesq and moz scumreading her.

Comm: Pretty much the same category as Zulfy. Contributions are sufficiently small that I would be fine lynching on policy if nothing better comes along. My gut is that Comm is more likely Town and Zulfy is more likely scum, so I'd prefer Zulfy given the choice.

cytheflyguy: I find most of his contribution to be decent enough, and I had similar reservations about Luca's case on UCV so I don't see this as necessarily scum-motivated. The deliberate lurking (#254) probably pings me more than anything else, since it means we don't have a great progression on his thoughts and we can't say for sure if his silence between #324 and #478 was intentionally avoiding contributing or not. I'm not getting strong scum vibes from him, but I can see where the case for it might come from. I don't think I want to lynch him today.

So at this point, it'd probably be Zulfy > Comm > cy > Athena in order of preference for me. I have at least two players in mind that I think would be better candidates than Zulfy or any of the others, but I'll honor Luca's wishes and reserve judgment until later in the day because I like what he's trying to do here.

[LaserGuy]

Why is Athena town?

I feel that the fact that she is following her own instincts and pursuing her own leads rather than just sticking with the plan is more likely to come from Town in this context. On balance I feel that scum are probably more likely to just go along with the plan because it's an easy way to look Townie and not draw attention to themselves without really needing to commit to anything. Taking a public stance against the general trajectory of Town's plans may be anti-Town, but it is anti-Town in an a stubbornly independent way that I usually associate with townies.

That aside, while it is true that she was reluctant to join the UCV wagon and found you scummy in D1, but I can hardly fault her for that since I did the same thing. None of her arguments on this point have really pinged me as a buddy interactions. Most of the remainder of her content is active and thoughtful. Her tone feels townie to me, and I can see her trying to work things out.

I'm assuming LaserGuy will be wanting to lynch Impede.

If not then can you update us on your read, LaserGuy.

Yes, I'd prefer Impede to Zaraki.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Impede

[LaserGuy]

We're going to have to deal with the slot sooner or later. Even if it does turn out to be a Town slot, it's not like they're doing anything to help out. There isn't really any harm in doing this.

VOTE: Zulfy

What's the need to deal with him today as opposed to in the future? Presumably if the lurking is actually due to real life reasons and not an in-game strategy, that should be cleared up sometime later. This seems uncharacteristically concise and nonanalytical, compared to my playerimage of you.

Remember, there is no night kills or power roles in this setup. Therefore the usual reasons for not wanting to lynch lurkers, or even marginally scummy players don't really exist here... we don't risk losing a strong townie voice or PR by lynching them. We just lose a slot that we can't read. It's likely that sooner or later, especially once we get down to only one or two scum left, we're probably just going to have to systematically lynch a couple of the players that people are fairly uncertain about, and that's fine. We have mislynches to spare, and with each scum we lynch, we can afford to lose another townie.

Yes, Zulfy could someday produce some great content that would make it worth keeping them around. Frankly, I think their content will need to be truly speculator to get them up to near-conftown status. Or they could continue to lurk and prod dodge for the foreseeable future. How much time is worth waiting for them to do something on the off-chance that they contribute something of value?

@Athena,

why didn't you respond to me here?

Scum:
Zulfy
Commknight
Laserguy

Can you explain these reads?

Migth even be Impede signalling to his scu buddies that he wants them to lynch Zulfy "I'm defintely gonna be on this wagon, lads"

Noting moz Townslipping here.

[LaserGuy]

For one, you're calling Zulfy a "lurker", which carries with it some connotation that isn't accurate in this situation. Zulfy hasn't been "active lurking", ie posting only to prod dodge - so far it appears like he was actually busy in real life and now has more time to dedicate towards the game. The way that his wagon popped up today was jumping the gun. I also take particular issue with your last sentence. How much time is worth waiting? How much is time worth at all? What do we lose of significance by waiting just a few days into the new day phase for someone who was (or at least, professed to be) busy in real life to catch up and begin producing content?

Even further, what's with the expectation that Zulfy has to get himself to "near-conftown status"? It seems like you're placing expectations upon him that don't apply to anyone else, and I'm not sure why.

Quite the contrary, I expect that anyone who is not basically conftown is going to get lynched before the end of the game (and I include myself in this count). I think it's fairly likely that sooner or later we're just going to have to start PoE lynching a bunch of people... I don't see any way around this if at least one scum is even marginally competent. We don't have any investigative PRs, and don't have any extra information as provided through the night kill. Conftown is the only thing we have that even remotely resembles a PR in this game, but it's a powerful one. If we get four conftown players at this point, we can win by literally just lynching every other player in the game.

At the time of posting my vote, Zulfy essentially no content, and Archwing before him had little enough. As I said earlier, policy lynching this game is very low risk for Town... we aren't trading a bad slot (lurker) for a good slot (somebody who gets NKed)... we're just losing a player with minimal content that is hard to read, and narrowing the number of potential scum candidates, something that we're very likely going to have to do anyway. This is actually why I like the scum pools that Luca has been setting up. If we can get to a point where we can pretty confidently say "there is one scum in these three players", then it is actually not a terrible play for Town just to lynch everyone in the pool even on the off-chance that all three are Town.

[LaserGuy]

Quite the contrary, I expect that anyone who is not basically conftown is going to get lynched before the end of the game (and I include myself in this count). I think it's fairly likely that sooner or later we're just going to have to start PoE lynching a bunch of people... I don't see any way around this if at least one scum is even marginally competent. We don't have any investigative PRs, and don't have any extra information as provided through the night kill. Conftown is the only thing we have that even remotely resembles a PR in this game, but it's a powerful one. If we get four conftown players at this point, we can win by literally just lynching every other player in the game.

You place far too much confidence in the idea that people can even become "conftown" in this setup. I'm not sure whether you have any ulterior motive or not to push this idea, but either way it's an incredibly dangerous one. You shouldn't treat anybody as conftown in this setup - perhaps the

primary

goal that scum actually have this game is to insert themselves into that group, whereupon if we were to follow your strategy, scum would win guaranteed.

What do you think the alternative is? If we have a choice between lynching player that is 90% likely to be town and another that is 40% likely to be town, the correct play is to lynch the one that is 40% likely to be town. The more players that we can put into this category, the more likely we are to win. Now sure, at this stage of the game, saying we have four or five conftown players is silly. We don't.

Why would you rather lynch someone who you have no or little information on as compared to someone you have information on and you believe to be scum? Comparatively little information is gained from a lurker lynch as compared to a lynch on a more active player.

Because a player that is active is likely to continue to be active. They will be easier to sort as the game goes on.

[LaserGuy]

Not really surprised I'm the lynch today. My head hasn't really been in this game and I've been playing something awful.

I'll try to have some final reads/thoughts for you guys shortly.

[LaserGuy]

I haven't really been feeling this game for awhile, so I'm just as happy to be out at this point. I know that people usually just ignore the reads of dead Townies, but do keep in mind that this is the only information that you are going to get going into D3 coming from someone that you have as confirmed Town, so I really would advise you to do something useful with this if you can.

Here's my final reads:

CommKnight:

Not realizing that it was D2 with the implicit mod confirmation seems to indicate that this was probably a townslip. I doubt daychat scum would make this sort of error. That aside, I generally feel his tone and thoughts indicate him as town. 70% Town.

Zulfy:

He should be policy lynched. Town really has no excuse for keeping this slot alive. Just flashwagon him D3 and move on. I think one of Zulfy/Impede have a very high chance of being scum though, actually. Interesting to note how quickly a wagon formed around him after moz voted for him (much more similar to UCV wagon), compared to how languid the wagon was around me (or Athena). Zulfy wagon was {moz, LaserGuy, cy, Impede}, FWIW. 20% Town.

cytheflyguy:

Content hasn't been great. I really don't like that he was deliberately lurking D1, though I don't know why scum would openly admit to this either. I still feel my initial reason for townreading him though. Has he been replaced yet? Probably a good slot to push going forward. 50% Town.

Lucky2u

: I don't really have a strong read on him... hasn't contributed much since the early blow-up with Luca. Going to go with 50% Town because I don't really know otherwise. If he flips scum, then it would be in Town's interests to revisit Luca. Another slot due for some good pressure.

Luca Blight:

There's a small part of my mind that is wondering whether Luca just bus-steamrolled UCV for townie credit D1, but, on balance I still think this scenario is somewhat unlikely. Noting that in #690 he is scumreading me for following his instructions in #528. Make of that what you will. The way that the day has progressed doesn't actually make a lot of sense to me for Luca to be scum regardless. Putting him at 90% Town for the UCV lynch, which is about as high as I'm comfortable going right now.

CultOfAthena

: I don't agree a lot of what she's saying, but her general tone and scumhunting activity looks townie, and I don't think that scum would be so intentionally abrasive as Athena is being. If she flips Town, definitely look at the people pushing this wagon for scum. 70% Town.

mozamis

: I believe he townslipped in #591. That aside, I like his play for the most part. I do tend to agree with Athena that he has some blinders on regarding scum more aggressively bussing UCV early on the wagon, but I don't think he's one of the people who was doing it. I'm putting him at 90% Town.

Impede:

I discussed in some detail in #511. My read of him has not changed significantly. 30% Town.

LaserGuy:

I am Town, but I've been very unmotivated to play this game and feel my play has been poor. I don't really fault anyone for wanting to lynch me at this stage. Something to note is that I've been a fairly obviously lynchbait player D2, but nobody has really attempted to push me. AFAIK only Sesq and Athena openly have a townread on me though. I'm not really sure what to make of this. I feel like scum had their sights set on a stronger townie voice as the mislynch for today (probably Athena). Or possibly scum is just laying low today with the plan of sheeping whatever Luca ultimately settles on. In any case, I honestly feel I probably deserved a lot more pressure today than I got. On play, I'm probably like 40% Town.

Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez:

This is apparently his second game, and he was scum in his first. A lot of the weirdness in his play makes sense for him being a newbie, though not, necessarily, a townie one. I think his play ought to maybe be a bit more solid if he were scum, but if his buddies are fairly passive players as things sort of appear to be (something like Sesq + cytheflyguy) then I could definitely see this. 40% Town.

UCV:

These are just a few gut reactions to a couple of his posts:

Spoiler: Long

#129

I am all ready town reading Mozamis.
His posts seem to be coming from a townie point of view

I have a null read on Luca
i am familiar with his play, so i will be able to read him soon

i have a scum lean on archwing
I am less familiar with this player, but i don't know how trying to make RVS last longer helps town, so i am all ready not so sure about that slot

I expect one of these three is a scumbuddy, the other two are Town.

#189:

Town
Luca, Comm, Moz

town lean
comm, lucky, sesq

Null
cy, Laser, Cult

scum lean
Archwing slot, Impede

I expect one of the "scum lean" slots is almost certainly scum. As noted above, Zulfy/Archwing looks like a very good lynch here, though Impede is also likely scum, so probably worth lynching both. I expect there is almost certainly a scum in the "town lean" group as well. Sesq is looking very likely.

#266

I honestly agree. Policy Lynching will be used to the advantage of scum. we should not let scum get the advantage

This interaction with Zaraki is weird. UCV is responding to a point about policy lynching from Zaraki that, in #271/275 doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Might be a buddy interaction.

#357

Luca, do you think Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez is scum for not staying on my wagon? how about CY?

do you even have any other scum reads. this entire time, you have been targeting me and no one else.


MOZ
what are your reasons for voting me. it honestly looks like you just sheeping me, and sheeping isn't always the best thing to do.


Implede
so you unvoted me for a little? Were you expecting my wagon to keep going on without you, but when another person unvoted, you decided you still needed to be on it?

Luca, what is my town meta. you have done a lot of talking about my scum meta. how about my town meta. all i have heard you refer to my town play is that im still scummy (which isn't true) as town.

also

you know my scum meta. i don't ask to be bused. if you are implying that Implede is scum, the way he is doing it doesn't fit my scum meta.

This post is after he has been cased by Luca. There's a lot of wine here, but...
People not mentioned in this post: Comm, Lucky, Athena, me, Sesq, Zulfy.

Mentioning Moz but not Sesq here is strange since both had about as much reasoning for voting UCV at this stage. One of these two is almost certainly scum. My money is on Sesq.

Giving Impede a bit of townie credit here since UCV got his name wrong. It's a stupid tell, but it's a tell.

Sesq:

Content is spectacularly awful. Hopped on the UCV wagon without any reasoning, did not contribute otherwise to that lynch whatsoever, and UCV never really questioned his reasoning for being there. Very likely a bus. Hopped onto my wagon without any reasoning why. In fact, he's been townreading me for most of the day. Appears to be laying low and not trying to draw attention to himself. 10% Town at best. Please lynch this slot.

Sorted tl;dr list:

Luca (90% Town)
moz (90% Town)
Athena (70% Town)
Comm (70% Town)
Cy (50% Town)
Lucky (50% Town)
Zaraki (40% Town)
~~Lynchables~~
Impede (30% Town)
Zulfy (20% Town)
Sesq (10% Town)

Gut feeling is that scum is something like Sesq, Zulfy, and one of Zaraki/Cy. I think the best play for town going forward is probably to lynch Zulfy D3. If he flips Town, look at Impede D4. Otherwise, focus on Sesq. Zaraki, Cy, and Lucky need to be pushed to contribute more... decent chance of one scum being in these slots and all three have been coasting for D2 and a lot of D1.

[pedit]Maybe lower Zaraki to 30% after that post.

[LaserGuy]

ah classic sesq, you could start a fight in an empty room.
Hopign i've caught scum, so yeah I'm helping ;P

Sorry to disappoint you.

Do keep my reads in mind going forward.

Best of luck.

[LaserGuy]

Well done Town!

Congrats to cy for playing a such a solid game under very difficult circumstances.