Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[Cabd]

Vote: Papa Zito

Final answer eh?

[Papa Zito]

gg Hopkirk, it was a good play.

From your position if Miccs town then Hopkirk is mafia, you need to sell me on him being mafia here since I'm deciding between the two of you.

It's not a case of me asking you specific questions but more a case of if you're town you needing to convince us that he's scum, so please do.

You've unfortunately been completely lost in the weeds of this game instead of looking at the big picture, and then compounded that with leading everyone else astray. I hope you review and learn from your mistakes here.

The puzzle of this game is a very simple one. Ignoring Cabd, all three of us voted Chip in 530, 531 and 532. The whole question about bussing has been answered. So the real question is who it was. Was it

A. The guy who was on Chip not once, not twice, but three times on Day 1?
B. The guy who caused the Chip wagon to fire after replacing into a low energy game, switching a pro-Chip slot to an anti-Chip slot, when plenty of other targets existed?
C. The guy who claimed to scumread Chip but never voted until seeing an opportunity when B happened?

VOTE: hopkirk for posterity I guess

Zito, why'd you have me so strongly as town at that point of day 2, and also now?

You've clearly been trying to gamesolve and our views of the game have been in sync.

[Hopkirk]

So your entire case is things that have been thoroughly discussed already this day phase, primarily the 'scum wouldn't bus' stuff?

[Lycanfire]

VC 5.2

I'm digging for something, but I can't find it.

Leading Wagon
Papa Zito (2) - Micc, Hopkirk

Hopkirk (1) - Papa Zito

Not Voting: Cabd

With 4 alive it will require 3 votes to achieve a lynch.

Day 5 will end in (expired on 2017-12-01 20:05:00).

[Regfan]

I've gone into detail on why I think bussing is advantageous for scum in this setup (no investigations, no "why haven't you been shot", mslynch wise it's probable mafia still need the same number of mslynches) so you pushing Chip is far from clearing there.

I've also gone into detail about your point C in Hopkirk in that he'd voted elsewhere while scum reading Chip up until that wagon, in fact I discussed that with you and you...also argued with me about it rather than agreed that it wasn't a good look for him.

So like if you're town here you should be trying to convince people to vote Hopkirk / make us think you're town. I've seen analysis and thought process from both of them today, I haven't from you an I'd like to.

[Cabd]

For the record, I'll be here and able to vote/not vote until the end, but I'd like zito's regfan-appeasement sooner rather than later.

[Papa Zito]

I've gone into detail on why I think bussing is advantageous for scum in this setup (no investigations, no "why haven't you been shot", mslynch wise it's probable mafia still need the same number of mslynches) so you pushing Chip is far from clearing there.

Yes, clearly it was advantageous as we are now in the situation we find ourselves in. You're once again missing the big picture here. All those votes occurred at the same time. One player bussed. Two didn't. The key to the puzzle is deciding which is which as that event was really the only major one of the game.

I've also gone into detail about your point C in Hopkirk in that he'd voted elsewhere while scum reading Chip up until that wagon, in fact I discussed that with you and you...also argued with me about it rather than agreed that it wasn't a good look for him.

I told you I hadn't read and you tried to force a conversation anyway. I've now done my wagon analysis and reread the day. I'm not sure why you're complaining that I'm agreeing with you now.

You and Micc are the only ones talking so I'm talking to you two. I'm not gonna yell at the void that is NSG or BTD or Cabd.

[Regfan]

That's fine but if you've done a reread and wagon analysis / got thoughts from that I think people here would appreciate seeing some of those? Like surely if you reread there's...more reasons that pointed you to Hopkirk being scum too, what were they?

[Papa Zito]

I just did. I'll break it down more for you more I guess. After examining the game in detail I determined the following:

* The game was on autopilot after Day 1. There's nothing of any real value there. Shame on us yes but it is what it is.
* Therefore, posts of alignment value are only found in Day 1.
* The major event of Day 1 was the Chip flashwagon that resulted in his lynch.
* All four living players were in on that flashwagon's creation making comparisons easy
* One of those four is confirmed town and can be removed from consideration
* I broke down the remaining three

There's no magic "AH HA" post I can point to that raises Hopkirk's magical numeric % meter. Because the foundation of that wagon still lives, the key to this game is to examine how and why that wagon happened. Two townies voted there, and one scum bussed.

- Is it more likely or less likely that Micc bussed? Micc was pushed Chip multiple times that day. Micc was widely townread and didn't need cred. Micc was active while the game was stagnant.
- Is it more likely or less likely that Zito bussed? Zito subbed into a slot that was widely townread and didn't need cred. Zito's actions stirred up a stagnant game and led directly to a scum lynch.
- Is it more likely or less likely that Hopkirk bussed? Hopkirk questioned Chip in one series of posts but never acted on that suspicion and never attempted a wagon on him. It was only after seeing 2 votes from (confirmed town) Cabd, (widely townread) Micc and intent from (widely townread) Zito that he jumped on board.

If you collectively recognize that this is the key to the game the puzzle becomes clear.

[Micc]

our views of the game have been in sync.

yeah. this is what scares me and you haven't been able to make me feel better about it. the way things have played out I don't have a way of knowing whether our views are in sync because we're both town and seeing the game the same, or if you're scum that's been quietly helping be lead a string of mis lynches in order to get you to lylo. If you've done a full re read and analyzed the early game I'd love to see some stream of consciousness like commentary from it. Something that shows why you're strong on me being town.

predit: 1183 actually helps. thank you.

[Micc]

1183 helps me understand why you're voting Hopkirk here that is. It doesn't really make me feel better about me being pocketed all game. You don't really have a play to do anything but town read me here if you're scum.

I'm still on the fence. Definitely no hammer yet please.

[Regfan]

@PZ - I can look at that and somewhat understand why

you

are voting Hopkirk here, that's not where I've got an issue with at all since I think if you're town you're voting correctly. It just doesn't do too much to convince me that it's Hopkirk over yourself, I've touched on why I think your push on Chip isn't necessarily something to rule you out on. I agree that Hopkirks lack of vote on Chip until the wagon isn't a good look and is certainly a scum tell here, that said it's not a strong enough point alone to lynch him based on for me so unless you've got

more

than that I'm unlikely to try and get votes moved.

@Cabd - I'd be mostly okay with you hammering when Miccs ready / if you're still feeling the scum read on PZ here unless he brings up something else?

[Papa Zito]

@PZ - I can look at that and somewhat understand why

you

are voting Hopkirk here, that's not where I've got an issue with at all since I think if you're town you're voting correctly. It just doesn't do too much to convince me that it's Hopkirk over yourself, I've touched on why I think your push on Chip isn't necessarily something to rule you out on. I agree that Hopkirks lack of vote on Chip until the wagon isn't a good look and is certainly a scum tell here, that said it's not a strong enough point alone to lynch him based on for me so unless you've got

more

than that I'm unlikely to try and get votes moved.

Allow me to counter then with - What precisely is the scum case on me? As we've established someone bussed so you can't use that against me specifically. What else?

[Micc]

UNVOTE:

This is probably a better way to say I'm not ready yet. Short of me getting hit by a truck I'll be around. Deadline isn't an issue.

[Regfan]

I'm at work so I can't go into anything in detail or grab links for them but in short at least for me it's;

-> Disliking a lot of SS's reads progressions and thoughts posted inside the thread, in particular really find his Chip read hard to understand and find his treatment of Micc v how he was interacting with Micc to feel contradictory, feel if he'd had Micc as low in his list he'd have spent less time reaching out to him trying to get him to join him on another wagon and instead questioned him more. I also disliked his interaction with Cheeky in regards to their read on Cabd, both prior and post claim from Cabd. The more I look at his ISO the more problems I have with it.

-> Finding the interactions between PZ/Chip particularly on the Chip end to make sense as partners moreso than any other pairing here; feel he interacts and treats you rather differently than Micc for instance and think there's a few specific interactions that feel like scum theatre, the whole "You're scumming up a slot that SS did well as town for" would make sense as a thing if SS was his partner and he felt you were ruining the slots position. There's more depth to this than that but again not the place I can go into it nor do I feel super compelled to.

-> Finding your play and reads post D1 for the most part to feel fairly lackluster and seeing plenty of scum motivation behind that in that you're allowing town to just continue mslynching each other and getting yourself deep in the game due to it. I don't see a lot of actual deep assessment of players alignments D2/D3/D4, I dislike how level 1 your analysis of Cheekys play and your scum read on her was when you explained it. I don't see you attempting to gamesolve today in the same manner I think Micc and to a slightly lesser degree Hopkirk are. I found your "I'll do VCA" typet hing as an attempt to follow on busywork type things and the lack of follow through on that combined with your re-entrance to the thread after a huge break just don't seem like town thinking about the game or trying to get mafia lynched much to me.

[Regfan]

My thoughts on this game right now;

Spoiler:

[Hopkirk]

@Zito: Given you agree that bussing is advantageous, how does it follow that the softest bus is scum? If/given bussing is a good move, there’s no advantage to a soft bus over a hard bus. At best, its wifomy- but you're presenting the less effective scum choice as the most likely scum choice without explicitly acknowledging the hard bus side of it.

Also, the focus seems like a convenient tool to avoid work (which makes more sense as scum whose given up than town whose given up), and to draw attention away from you/try and weaken the case on you (since everyone seems to agree that if you discount that bus as wifomy, then you look worst). Saying everything except likelihood of bussing somewhat contradicts your earlier statement that you looked all through Micc and found nothing (why look if you believe point a to be true?) and is inherently wrong since the assumption that mafia play at least somewhat differently to town is the fundamental part of the game (especially in this setup where town have a voice after death).

[Regfan]

Nodding along with most of Hopkirks post above, find Zitos "Everything other than D1 isn't relevant" type stance a bit of a cop out, sure there's the argument there's some strong information to be found there but I think arguments can be made for people to be town/scum during the other days and the attempt to narrow it down to "Focus on this one action" is scum knowing they're probably losing trying to limit work into the game and focus on something they look better from. At least that's how I'm reading it, do apologise if I'm wrong but I'm preeeetty happy for people to throw votes down and see the result.

ftr, I dislike the idea of running things too tight to the deadline in a mafia game. I think the closer it is to the EOD the more power mafia get inside a game, a stronger thing when there's multiple mafia alive, yes. But in this scenario all mafia have to do is avoid themselves getting lynched and they win. That means if they drop down something that convinces just one town player that they might be wrong on them upon EOD when there's not a lot of time to actually think through what they've posted or discuss it then it ends up with a real tough quick decision that'll need to be made which often leads to mistakes.

If we're going to prolong the day more people should be asking questions, posting thoughts, doing

something

with the time.

[Micc]

Yeah sorry. I just want one last chance to think this one through start to finish and yesterday wasn’t a great day for that. Today is better so I’ll get to it.

[Papa Zito]

in particular really find his Chip read hard to understand and find his treatment of Micc v how he was interacting with Micc to feel contradictory, feel if he'd had Micc as low in his list he'd have spent less time reaching out to him trying to get him to join him on another wagon and instead questioned him more. I also disliked his interaction with Cheeky in regards to their read on Cabd, both prior and post claim from Cabd. The more I look at his ISO the more problems I have with it.

You can't condemn Spacey for townreading Chip and then condemn me for scumreading him. Are you insane. Clearly I disagreed with him on a number of points, which is why I went in a completely different direction.

Finding the interactions between PZ/Chip particularly on the Chip end to make sense as partners moreso than any other pairing here; feel he interacts and treats you rather differently than Micc for instance and think there's a few specific interactions that feel like scum theatre, the whole "You're scumming up a slot that SS did well as town for" would make sense as a thing if SS was his partner and he felt you were ruining the slots position.

Of course he treats me differently. Here were his options:

1. Cabd, who was confirmed town;
2. Micc, who was widely townread;
3. Hopkirk, his partner;
4. Zito, who he'd opportunistically been slinging mud at prior.

I don't understand how you think Chip's reaction to my replacing in points to us being partners if you've actually read the game. Scum need mislynch options and when I replaced in I wasn't one of them, nobody was pressuring my slot or really had at all up to that point. I was in 0 danger of being lynched. Chip's reaction to my replacement was to try undermining the townread Space had gained. That's not something you do to a partner who's in a good position.

Finding your play and reads post D1 for the most part to feel fairly lackluster and seeing plenty of scum motivation behind that in that you're allowing town to just continue mslynching each other and getting yourself deep in the game due to it. I don't see a lot of actual deep assessment of players alignments D2/D3/D4, I dislike how level 1 your analysis of Cheekys play and your scum read on her was when you explained it. I don't see you attempting to gamesolve today in the same manner I think Micc and to a slightly lesser degree Hopkirk are. I found your "I'll do VCA" typet hing as an attempt to follow on busywork type things and the lack of follow through on that combined with your re-entrance to the thread after a huge break just don't seem like town thinking about the game or trying to get mafia lynched much to me.

This is such a bad post holy hell.

1. I'm not in control of this town. I cannot force their votes. Saying I'm "allowing town to just continue mislynching" is putting way too much responsibility on one player and ONCE AGAIN points to how you've completely not read the game in context. The game was on autopilot D2-4 and putting that solely on me is asinine.
2. I have gamesolved and presented the solution to the game in the easiest possible format I could think of

twice

. Here's what I guess is a revelation to you: Post count/word count are not alignment indicative.
3. I did the VCA. I didn't post it here because you keep calling it busywork and apparently putting effort into the game in a way that isn't Regfan Approved means I'm scum. Now you condemn me for

not

posting it? Hello?
4. I'm not going to apologize for enjoying a holiday with my family. This game does not take precedence over my personal life. Someday I'll play a game and not have players attempt to make me feel bad for having a life outside of the Internet, but today is not that day.
5. How the fuck am I not thinking about the game when I've gone through the effort to wade through the bullshit and distill it to its core? "You're not playing the way I want you to" does not mean I'm scum ffs.

@Zito: Given you agree that bussing is advantageous, how does it follow that the softest bus is scum?

It wasn't planned.

[Micc]

Zito, I’ll take the VCA if you’ve still got it.

[Papa Zito]

The vote movements didn't end up telling me anything interesting so I didn't keep it.

[Micc]

Well, that’s not helpful.

I’m a little thrown off that you seem to be making a point to show you’re not going to cater to Regfan’s expectations, yet not posting/saving the VCA seems to be catering to Regfan’s expectations.

[Hopkirk]

3.) The problem I have here is that ‘lets do VCA’ really isn’t the first or even last thing that sprang to my mind at the start of today- and clearly the same applies to Micc. I don’t see why it would be your first thought, why you wouldn’t say when you decided it didn’t say anything useful, or how it fit with your conclusion that the bus was the only relevant event.

‘2. Micc, who was widely townread;
3. Hopkirk, his partner;’
Here’s a problem with that: as far as I’m aware, I was townread about the same as Micc at that point. You’re engaging in revisionism here.

1.) C. The guy who claimed to scumread Chip but never voted until seeing an opportunity when B happened?
2.) It wasn't planned.
You’re saying that both it was obvious Chip was being lynched and not obvious at the same time. One implies I bussed Chip with intent for it to lead to a lynch, two implies I bussed without expecting it to lead to a lynch. One is a legitimate perspective, since I feel mine is what tipped it from a wagon to a probable lynch, but taking both stances is an illegitimate argument.

[Papa Zito]

I’m a little thrown off that you seem to be making a point to show you’re not going to cater to Regfan’s expectations, yet not posting/saving the VCA seems to be catering to Regfan’s expectations.

That's not what I'm saying. My point is he's concluding I'm scum because my approach to solving the game doesn't match his. He seems to want me to do a hypercritical pbpa on Hopkirk (I think?) and I don't think that helps anybody. I think focusing on the crux of the game is far more productive.