Open 702: Vanilla Nightless Game Over

[Luca Blight]

Alright, I'll post my case on UCV in a bit.

[cytheflyguy]

wow athena, that's a lot of nothing you've said.

That's certainly one way to interpret it. An incorrect interpretation, mind you, but an interpretation nonetheless.

jesus fucking christ. nevermind we're lynching athena today.

VOTE: cultofathena

What's the reasoning behind this?

[LaserGuy]

This sucks. Weak PoE. Also makes me think you're town.

Why does having a weak PoE make you think moz is Town?

so far

Town
Luca, Comm, Moz

Can you explain this townread on moz?

My preferred lynch today is UCV. I have experience with him and know his style well - this really feels like his scum game to me. I've been trying my best not to tunnel on him as I'm aware I have a tendancy to, but it really feels as if he's trying to buddy me to get me on his side so I won't go for him.

Quoting this mostly to make a note for myself to try to take a meta dive on UCV and see if this checks out.

depending on who you ask according to Luca, i am always scummy. (not true) regardless of alignment, but I joke around as town and don't try.

This wasn't the impression I got from Luca's post above. He was suggesting that you two have a history and he has a fairly good sense of how you play as either alignment. Do you disagree?

Nyegh. After looking at 90, it is a hot mess. I think I fucked up along the lines. (won't lie, I'm not the greatest with percentages so I had an easier time with cy's 4 posts). I was honestly trying to go for an objective analysis, but I guess I fell into the confirmation bias anyways.

In post 90, you listed four reasons for saying you believed cy was Town in post #43. Which reasons did you have for believing he was Town at the time you posted that read, and which ones came later?

Have you tried this sort of analysis in mafia before? Has it provided you with anything fruitful? I don't really understand what you were hoping to accomplish here. I mean, probability is extremely useful in Mafia, but I don't understand what you were hoping to determine with your particular application. Just a note that 75% Town on one player isn't actually that strong anyway, since your prior should be 66% Town based on the known distribution of player alignment.

Although I feel I townread too early, as he hardly posts. Then again, still a town lean.

I don't understand this. Your reasons for townreading him in post #43/90 were based off of the content that he had posted. If those reasons were true when you posted them, there doesn't seem to be a really compelling reason for you not to continue townreading him now. If those reasons are invalid now, they were just as invalid before. Granted, he's been lurking, but not even enough for a prod, I don't think.

I feel Sesq and Luka are def town. As for the other reads? I haven't got my thoughts organized yet. Maybe Impede too? He seems to be getting townier and townier.

Why do you feel Sesq, Luka and Impede are town?

I'm not particularly scumreading Lucky at the moment - although I disagree with most of his posts I'm inclined to believe his intentions were genuine.

I'm not sure I believe the latter point.

I never called Luca scum or implied I was scum reading him. Did you think I did or are you misrepresenting me?

I'm not sure I believe this either.

Disagree that they are both possibilities? no. I disagree that the town version of that scenario is what was happening, I believe it was the scum version of that scenario. If he really was reaction fishing, which again he never stated he was doing that he just implied he might, then wow did he pull it off in the dumbest way possible.

I'm amazed how much you've managed to milk out of this without producing anything of value. I think this is earned.

VOTE: Lucky2u

I'm still trying to work out you in my head if you are noob or scum Impede. The thing that has pinged me the most from you was that "Lynch me" comment. 9/10 that comment comes from scum. However, given sesq being an unapologetic douche I can kind of see why you said it. In your 226 you fence sat about UCV fence sitting. Fence sitting-ception if you will. He previously topped a reads list for you as town, still the same?

Amused that you are fence sitting on Impede while berating him for fence sitting

However, I might as well post some reads just to be relevant again.

Town

Luca Blight
Impede
Laserguy
CultofAthena-Town/Null

Null

UC
Zulfy
Sesq

Scum

Lucky2u-Honestly putting him here
CommKnight
mozamis

Why Comm scum? Why Impede Town? What about Zaraki?

I feel like a sheep since this is popular consensus. I work better when there's something I want to contradict.

Who do you feel this is consensus of? I think you are the only person with a strong townread on me. Comm is being read more townie than not, I think. Impede is being read more scummy than not.

By the way, here's a fresh take that's sure to get some debate started - there really isn't all that great of a reason for Luca to be as widely townread as he is.

Not sure why this is a fresh take... I mentioned in #167/214 that Luca looked scummy to me and you commented on both posts in 227/230. But okay, what's your read on Luca?

[Luca Blight]

UC Voyager

122, 171, 191, 266 - A continuing theme of

'town should/shouldn't be doing this!'

. This is something UCV does when he is scum.

129 - Completely fake scumhunting. Looks contrived with one townread, one null read, one scum read, and no real reasoning for any of it.

141, 143,152, 155, 199 - Buddying me. As I explained before, he knows I know his meta well and that I tunnel on him once I catch on that he's scum, and he entered into this game with the plan of trying to appease me, no doubt about it.

146, 147, 174 - Fence-sitting. This is something I know he does as scum.

159 Asking if Impede's play is lurkscum; why can't he judge this for himself?

189 - non-committal and unexplained reads list where he gives scum leans but says he has no solid scum reads, but is apparently 'still hunting'.

222 - Responds to my vote on him for buddying with a further attempt at buddying, saying it's good I don't always consider those who side with me as being of the same alignment. He's also using emotion here to try and get me to change my mind.

Other than that, I have played with him many times now and can read this guy like a book. UCV is today's lynch - let's make it happen.

Unless anyone can give any good reason why we

shouldn't

lynch UCV today?

[Luca Blight]

@Laser:

You seem to be maintaining the view that me and Lucky are scum buddies which was based on your 214 which I refuted with my216.

I just want you to explain why you still seem to feel this way.

[Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez]

UC Voyager

122, 171, 191, 266 - A continuing theme of

'town should/shouldn't be doing this!'

. This is something UCV does when he is scum.

129 - Completely fake scumhunting. Looks contrived with one townread, one null read, one scum read, and no real reasoning for any of it.

141, 143,152, 155, 199 - Buddying me. As I explained before, he knows I know his meta well and that I tunnel on him once I catch on that he's scum, and he entered into this game with the plan of trying to appease me, no doubt about it.

146, 147, 174 - Fence-sitting. This is something I know he does as scum.

159 Asking if Impede's play is lurkscum; why can't he judge this for himself?

189 - non-committal and unexplained reads list where he gives scum leans but says he has no solid scum reads, but is apparently 'still hunting'.

222 - Responds to my vote on him for buddying with a further attempt at buddying, saying it's good I don't always consider those who side with me as being of the same alignment. He's also using emotion here to try and get me to change my mind.

Other than that, I have played with him many times now and can read this guy like a book. UCV is today's lynch - let's make it happen.

Unless anyone can give any good reason why we

shouldn't

lynch UCV today?

That's actually very compelling. I dislike that buddying though, it tastes very psst, I'll buddy you and you save my hide. And the more you resist the buddy, the more he goes for it.

I'm willing to believe you know his meta, and the argument you give is rather good. I honestly can't say why not. (Then again, you may be asking the wrong person.)

Vote: UC Voyager

[Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez]

Also, an addendum. I dislike throwing around my vote, so I take it a little seriously when it comes to voting.

[LaserGuy]

@Laser:

You seem to be maintaining the view that me and Lucky are scum buddies which was based on your 214 which I refuted with my216.

I just want you to explain why you still seem to feel this way.

Your comment in #216 doesn't really affect how I am reading the situation at all. I never thought that you had a problem with Comm. I said my impression was that you had a buddy interaction with Lucky, with Comm as the subject and the two of you on opposing sides of an ultimately spurious argument.

[Sesq]

sure

VOTE: uc voyager

athena is still a scumfuck. cy might be as well.

[UC Voyager]

you know what. fuck it
@mod replace me. im sorry Luca, but i do not think i can join games with you anymore. This is bad shit crazy

[Luca Blight]

I genuinely think you're scum. Replacing out is pointless either way.

If you're Town then you get the last laugh, right?

[Luca Blight]

Replacing out because you're being scumread is just laughable to be honest.

[UC Voyager]

No. I definitely am not taking this shit AGAIN. regardless of alignment, do you realise how annoying it is to be scumread based off a Meta which i am not playing. THAT WAS MY FUCKING FIRST SCUM GAME! do you think i would play it every time. plus, just look at the statistics. what are the chances of me being scum here. I thought you would have gotten over the one game by now, but apparently not.

[Luca Blight]

Statistics are irrelevant - just because you draw scum one game doesn't mean you're less likely to in the next.

I made a lot of points not involving meta - you haven't addressed them.

I kept an open mind and tried to consider you might be Town, but I just strongly believe you are scum this game. Am I supposed to suppress that feeling in case you get annoyed?

No. Being scumread is part of the game. Deal with it.

[UC Voyager]

no. You are supposed to not use fucking meta as your literal ONLY reason and parts of your case are FULL speculation.
You have specifically targeted me to go for in EVERY game now. and it is always the same meta case which isn't true. Think about it, if i were scum trying to appeal to you why the fuck would i play my scum meta. oh shit, i wouldn't. here is somthing i do, i play my town game as scum. therefore, it is often hard t tell the difference plus the way you describe my scum meta is shit! Thanks a fucking lot. Meta is a good way to read, but you took it way to far here. now, it is almost your only reason.

[Luca Blight]

Yeah, obviously you would try not to play your scum meta, but you're not yet very experienced at hiding it and I can see through it pretty easily.

Just use it as a learning experience and move on.

[MathBlade]

MOD NOTES

UC Voyager has asked for a replacement. I am looking for that replacement now.

[Luca Blight]

Voyager, are you really gonna replace out like this?

Have some dignity at least.

[Luca Blight]

Notice he's only replacing out now others have voted him, despite the fact I've been tunneling on him for a while now in this game.

He's just angry that I've caught him again. Let's lynch this slot.

[Lucky2u]

VOTE: UCV

/shrug

[Lucky2u]

VOTE: UC Voyager

right, automated vote counter

[UC Voyager]

@mod don't replace me. I think I have overreacted. I honestly just need to take some time to calm down and then come back and make a post

[MathBlade]

MOD NOTES

UC Voyager has rescinded the request for a replacement. I am no longer looking for that replacement now.

As an aside if anyone specifically asks for their own replacement, I will replace the player asking. I do not take kindly to telling potential replacements "whoops sorry".

[Impede]

I've seen some questioning of townreads on me which implies that either the people asking those questions disagree or are having trouble forming their own reads on me. @Those people, what're your takes on me?

You've been one of my null-leaning-scum reads, but it was mostly for lack of content. You're posting since seems to be town-motivated. I think I'll leave you as Null, but might be leaning a bit more Town than before. Once I reformulate my readslist, I'll do some more in-depth analysis.

[cytheflyguy]

UC Voyager

122, 171, 191, 266 - A continuing theme of

'town should/shouldn't be doing this!'

. This is something UCV does when he is scum.

129 - Completely fake scumhunting. Looks contrived with one townread, one null read, one scum read, and no real reasoning for any of it.

141, 143,152, 155, 199 - Buddying me. As I explained before, he knows I know his meta well and that I tunnel on him once I catch on that he's scum, and he entered into this game with the plan of trying to appease me, no doubt about it.

146, 147, 174 - Fence-sitting. This is something I know he does as scum.

159 Asking if Impede's play is lurkscum; why can't he judge this for himself?

189 - non-committal and unexplained reads list where he gives scum leans but says he has no solid scum reads, but is apparently 'still hunting'.

222 - Responds to my vote on him for buddying with a further attempt at buddying, saying it's good I don't always consider those who side with me as being of the same alignment. He's also using emotion here to try and get me to change my mind.

Other than that, I have played with him many times now and can read this guy like a book. UCV is today's lynch - let's make it happen.

Unless anyone can give any good reason why we

shouldn't

lynch UCV today?

Statistics are irrelevant - just because you draw scum one game doesn't mean you're less likely to in the next.

I made a lot of points not involving meta - you haven't addressed them.

I kept an open mind and tried to consider you might be Town, but I just strongly believe you are scum this game. Am I supposed to suppress that feeling in case you get annoyed?

No. Being scumread is part of the game. Deal with it.

Hmm...tbf you only referenced 4 posts that had nothing to do with metaing. These were all the points that had only one post to back up the claim.

The first one made me raise an eyebrow was "no real reasoning for any of it". I'm sorry, but...

OK, so P.O.E time:

Town= Moz, Sesq, Lucca, Lucky, Zaraki, Comm

So scum in: archer, impede, cyber, cult, voyager, laser guy

thats four scum in 6 , good odds!

out of those 6, gun to head i would say scum team is: archer, impede, cult and voyager

Finally caught up. Here's where I'm at as far as reads. Not going to post a ton of rationale since I need to get back to work (on lunch right now), but most of it is in my previous posts from the past hour. Feel free to question anything in particular that doesn't jive and I'll explain.

Town

to

Null

to

Scum

:

Sesq, Moz

UCV*, Luca, Cy

----slight

Laser*, Comm

----leaning town

CoA*, Arch('s slot)*

----leaning scum

Lucky, Zaraki

*indicates a need for more content. Don't feel great about these reads.

{Luca, Cult, Sesq}
{cy, UC}
{Zaraki, Impede, Laser}
{Lucky, moza, Zulfy}

Getting a better feel of people now and moza and Lucky are definitely on the bottom right now. Luca, Cult and Sesq are off the table for today (though Sesq is definitely being looked at more in future days), Cy and UC are more town leans and the rest are more meh. Zulfy is more of an educated gut feel.

People should vote Lucky.

Note for reference that Cy, having been widely townread early on, has done nothing since.

Fair

I'll be honest, I'm not too confident in my reads as of late so I wanted to wait things out for a bit.

However, I might as well post some reads just to be relevant again.

Town

Luca Blight
Impede
Laserguy
CultofAthena-Town/Null

Null

UC
Zulfy
Sesq

Scum

Lucky2u-Honestly putting him here
CommKnight
mozamis

I feel like a sheep since this is popular consensus. I work better when there's something I want to contradict.

Including myself and excluding UVC, there are four other people who gave little/literally no reasoning for their reads. I feel that UVC's meta has blinded you in the order of who you want to lynch, but these should be addressed as well down the line if we're reasoning that poor reads=a larger likelihood of being scum or not.

Obviously, I don't have the same meta experience as you do (well, none of which I'm allowed to speak of), but you are the only one who has had experience with him out of all of us, as far as I know. I cannot truely take you at your word regarding the meta. Your three posts that I have not addressed do hold some water, but I interpreted them differently. I saw it as more unsure and testing waters more than anything else. I am slightly convinced, but I don't want him lynched just yet. With how fast votes are going for him, for my best interest in using time wisely, I will abstain for now.