Open 695: Making Friends and Enemies [Mafia Win!]

[Flavor Leaf]

His gut, which I don’t necessarily think it’s just gut reads, makes sense to me with the trajectory of his posts.

[Epic Fial]

More later...

The two VCs between the ones I've been discussing are worth looking at...

Epic Comm Knight fight feels staged.
Townreads on aubrey and flavor leaf on the last page.

Prodge. This post tells me Math hasn't read the thread. More in several hours.

[Epic Fial]

Comm, why do you think I asked that question about catching Assembler?

[Flubbernugget]

Page 54

The turn of events is interesting. I usually ignore MathBlade when they replace into my games, but I want to see if there's any credence on their notes with comm knight

On the other hand, comm is working to get one of my scum reads lynched (though them town reading quick really sucks)

[Torque]

Votecount 3.03

Quick (1): Flubbernugget
Epic Fial (1): Flavour Leaf

Flavour Leaf (3): Chisa Yukizome, Epic Fial, Aubrey

Flubbernugget (1): Maki Harukawa
Maki Harukawa (2): Quick, CommKnight
CommKnight (1): MathBlade

Not voting:

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

Day ends in (expired on 2017-12-05 10:30:00)

[Flubbernugget]

Never mind

CommKnight is doing the exact opposite of what math is accusing him, and I have no clue why I thought I saw something else.

VOTE: Maki

[Maki Harukawa]

Shocking vote is shocking

[MathBlade]

With a post like that I could compromise on flubber and maybe the epic/comm knight fight was genuine.

[MathBlade]

Would much rather lynch Comm or Quick though.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: From Mastina's VCA Guide

Town lynch:
Look off the mislynch wagon.

The first place I look for scum on a mislynch is OFF the wagon--I try to determine how many scum (if any) there are, and who the probable candidates are. Sometimes, there are situations where there are none to be found, or far fewer to be found than expected...and in those situations, by virtue of doing this analysis, I have a better idea of how good or bad the mislynch wagon was.
Regardless: counterwagons
I look for the presence of a counterwagon, or far more tellingly, the utter lack of one. If there is no discernible counterwagon on a scum lynch, it's a safe bet scum bussed. Maybe even heavily. If on a scum lynch there is a counterwagon on a player who is known to be town, then the names there have a decent chance of being scum. This is not that common anymore, but sometimes it does still happen. If on a town lynch there is a counterwagon on a player who is known to be scum...then there's a reasonable chance you can use the safe/standard model of "scum voted town, town voted scum" with an above average accuracy.
that guy sitting out the day's lynch when it's town v town? That's scum with substantial probability.
--mhsmith0
If on a town lynch there is a counterwagon on a town player, then the scum didn't care which got lynched--the scum are likely to be about evenly distributed between each wagon, and if there's players on neither wagon, there's a disproportionately high chance that the players off both wagons are scum.

Let's see where this gets us.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 2.Final

Quick (1): Flubbernugget
Flubbernugget (1): Maki Harukawa

Lalendra (R.I.P): lucca261, Aubrey, Quick, Chisa Yukizome, Epic Fial, CommKnight

CommKnight (1): Epic Fial
Chisa Yukizome (2): Flavor Leaf, Not Known 15
Not Known 15 (1): Lalendra

Not voting:

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch!

Day ends in (expired on 2017-11-19 11:00:00)

Lalendra has been lynched! They are a

Vanilla Town.

Spoiler:

Vanilla Town

Welcome, Lalendra! Your role is

Vanilla Town

.

Abilities:

The only ability you have is your vote. Use it wisely!

Win Condition:

You win when all threats to the town are eliminated

.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Night 2 begins! It ends in (expired on 2017-11-21 10:00:00).

[MathBlade]

Votecount 1.15

CommKnight (4): Epic Fial, Quick, Maki Harukawa, Jamiet99uk

Quick (1): Flubbernugget
lucca261 (1): Flavor Leaf

Jamiet99uk (4): CommKnight, lucca261, Awoo, Lalendra

Lalendra (2): northsidegal, Aubrey

Not voting: Chisa Yukizome

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

Nobody will be lynched!

[/color]

[MathBlade]

We know 100% certain Jamiet was Town.

This means CommKnight was the Counter wagon. The question is whether Comm Knight is scum or not.

Setting my thoughts aside a moment, let's look at each case.

[MathBlade]

Assume Comm Knight is town. Then there would be a relevant IDGAF which wagon it is.

We know northside, Not 15/Awoo were Town because of the NK. I know I am Town. This means that with the assumption Comm Knight is town that entire wagon on Jaime would be Town.

Now compare to the Comm Knight wagon, Epic Fial, Quick, Maki and Jaime.
Jaime was Town. This would make at most two of Epic, Quick, Maki scum.

But what is odd and counter to that argument is that any scum on the Comm Knight switch to The other lynch to not no lynch. This distribution does not make sense for the assumption Comm knight is town. Therefore it is much more likely comm Knight is scum.

[MathBlade]

Unless the team is specifically, flubber, Aubrey, Flavor Leaf. Day two there was no counterwagon to Lalendra lynch.

I could see scum pushing two bad wagons just to make sure no hindrance got to the Lalendra lynch. Let's compare that against today's votes.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 3.03

Quick (1): Flubbernugget
Epic Fial (1): Flavour Leaf

Flavour Leaf (3): Chisa Yukizome, Epic Fial, Aubrey

Flubbernugget (1): Maki Harukawa
Maki Harukawa (2): Quick, CommKnight
CommKnight (1): MathBlade

Not voting:

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

Day ends in (expired on 2017-12-05 10:30:00)

Flubber again still on Quick. Aubrey on Flavor Leaf and Flavor Leaf on Epic.

[MathBlade]

Page 54

The turn of events is interesting. I usually ignore MathBlade when they replace into my games, but I want to see if there's any credence on their notes with comm knight

On the other hand, comm is working to get one of my scum reads lynched (though them town reading quick really sucks)

Flubber here isn't reading. I townread and scumread Quick with certain people.

[MathBlade]

how quickly he misdirected to Chisa her own suspicion.

By defending myself, and stating that scum could be killing a direct threat, OR potentially setting up a frame kill?

--

Awoo did a poor job in hiding whether or not she was a mason. Unless scum are dense, that was not a power-role check, but rather an intentional kill with the hope of an after-effect. NK15 only talked about three people (

start of day I forgot he went after Chisa

). That is not a lot of people, and a relative small pool of info for people to look into.

So

.... few suspects, short and easy ISO, it isn't shocking why people would quickly assume he was onto something after an early death. Now look at the slots in question, Me, Chisa, and Epic. You have 2 slots who have had a healthy dose of suspicion, and were easy lynch targets going into today, and myself who was highly against the Lalendra slot who has now flipped town.

Pre-night 2: Epic and Chisa are slots who were likely going to face scrutiny going into tomorrow due to poor performance. It doesn't make sense from a scum point of view for them to really kill off someone like NK15 who has only gone after 3 people in order to relieve pressure form their slots. Then you have me and everything I said in Post 1186 who has sat damn pretty this whole game. What's one person (

who can't even fight back when questioned

) really going to do to me, especially when I'm not even his main target? The night kill just doesn't make a lot of sense for any of us to make to me.

So why is Flubber being voted again? This game has a popular trend of unexplained votes/wagons it seems.

Logical wagon. I can agree with said wagon. People on it that I like. VOTE: Flavor.

Maki's 1267 is a tad off-putting as well. Why would you try to incriminate whoever lands the hammering blow to the wagon you're advocating for?

I could buy into being busy in RL for a window in time. I could buy into not being motivated for a window of time. Your window of time though has been a major portion of the game. furthermore, I don't buy that it was a planned decision to actively lurk in order to help you place players through reaction testing. Like the annoying math teachers in my old high school days, you need to show the work, and I'm not seeing it. The only thing I see, is you going after the first person to really call you out on anything for survival. <--- aka this reads more as "

Oh shit time to push back on the fly

" rather than "

I've been collecting data on how people recieve me, and here are my results now that my wagon is generated

"

Here we see a general agreement with the Flavor Wagon but does very little to actually push it forward. For someone complaining about the lack of gamestate there is no attempts at pushing anyone. For all the "show your work" bits Aubrey is also not showing work.

In the rare case of Comm Knight town we're probably looking at Flubber,Flavor, and Aubrey.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 3.03

Quick (1): Flubbernugget
Epic Fial (1): Flavour Leaf

Flavour Leaf (3): Chisa Yukizome, Epic Fial, Aubrey

Flubbernugget (1): Maki Harukawa
Maki Harukawa (2): Quick, CommKnight
CommKnight (1): MathBlade

Not voting:

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

Day ends in (expired on 2017-12-05 10:30:00)

Flubber again still on Quick. Aubrey on Flavor Leaf and Flavor Leaf on Epic.

By PoE Chisa is not scum in either world, Maki is not scum in either world, and well I know I am Town.
So don't like the Comm,Quick,Flubber wagon on Maki.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Flubber

The votes say you are scum.

[Flubbernugget]

I didn't mention anything of your read on quick

[MathBlade]

Page 54

The turn of events is interesting. I usually ignore MathBlade when they replace into my games, but I want to see if there's any credence on their notes with comm knight

On the other hand, comm is working to get one of my scum reads lynched (though them town reading quick really sucks)

Them = my pronoun
Him = Comm Knight's pronoun

Unless you are using the colloquial you are talking about me?

[Aubrey]

And what work would you like me to show you?

[Flavor Leaf]

I actually disagree with most of Math’s points there. I was specifically stating that Lalendra was a compromise lynch and was going to flip town, why would I ever be on it?

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m always down to lynch Quick, though, so I agree there, Titus sibling.