Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

[davesaz]

Day 4 begins, let's see who didn't make it this time.

Ectomancer,

Vanilla Townie

,

was killed night 3.

Vote Count 4.1

not voting (7) - Fishythefish, mutantdevle, kelbris, ProHawk, DeasVail, havingfitz, boring

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
(expired on 2017-12-12 22:00:00)

[DeasVail]

Okay, let's do this. NO ONE IS SAFE

Fishy, after voting for Transcend, you ask him a few questions in 1315, 1323 and 1332. Do you think he could have answered in these questions in such a way that would have changed your read on him, or not really?

Mutant, you've mentioned a few times that you believe you'll be killed at night. What is your motivation for saying this?

Kelbris, why did you feel the need to justify your vote in the following way:

P.S. he already claimed VT so I am not "quickhammering before he has a chance to claim" for those who have not read the day yet.

But right now I reckon boring is the best bet for scum:

There's no way Transcend's town. And all this cop-talk just looks like him trying to tease out another naive PR.

That lolhammer was beyond anti-town. Added with all the other toxic, ridiculous play this game, he really must be just a cheap-shot scum player.

Luca successfully rallied the town to vote UCV, and he was clearly going after Transcend next, with no one else clearly in his crosshairs. If Transcend was town, there's no reason to kill Luca. Better mutant, or someone else widely townread. Luca would have guaranteed a Trasncend lynch today.

VOTE: Transcend

I think this is vote #4, so

L-1

Seriously, Kelbris? Everyone hasn't even checked in yet.

Scum!Transcend -- I'm looking at Kelbris and Ecto tomorrow
Town!Transcend -- Kelbris, and then everyone else.

If you're convinced that Transcend is scum here, as your previous post suggested, why this reaction to a hammer?

[DeasVail]

VOTE: boring

[kelbris]

The reason I added that PS at the end of my vote was because I thought that anyone who jumped straight to the latest post might not have noticed his VT claim, just like UCV didn't notice his JK claim until I pointed it out.

[kelbris]

btw boring, the reason I hammered when I did was because Transcend blasted every attempt I made to defend him into dust AND failed to answer my question, had he answered my question regarding Viomi, I might have been able to overlook his vt claim, but combining that claim (which for all I knew could have been BS like his other claims) and the fact that my question was ignored on multiple occasions, I saw no other course of action then to hammer.

[ProHawk]

Not liking boring for scum...

[ProHawk]

Interesting to see Mutant still alive, but I think scum was just trying to score...

[ProHawk]

btw boring, the reason I hammered when I did was because Transcend blasted every attempt I made to defend him into dust AND failed to answer my question, had he answered my question regarding Viomi, I might have been able to overlook his vt claim, but combining that claim (which for all I knew could have been BS like his other claims) and the fact that my question was ignored on multiple occasions, I saw no other course of action then to hammer.

Didn't care about letting Ecto or Fitz have any comments?

[mutantdevle]

Upon starting this day I had a major question on my mind. That question being "why am I still alive"?

I'm fairly confident that out of everyone here I'm the person that players have the most town reads on. I don't actually think anyone has a scum or null read on me (if you do please say so). So I would have thought that since I am the most townie player surely the scum would want to get rid of me? So knowing I am still alive makes me wonder

what

is keeping me alive? The only thing I could think of was that my reads are wrong. Think about it, someone who is highly considered town going around leading the rest of the town in the wrong direction. Why would they want to get rid of that?

Next, I started thinking why Ectomancer would be shot instead of me. The last we heard of Ectomancer (which was quite a while ago) he was basically just arguing with me over how long my posts are. So immediately I thought that perhaps the scum are trying to frame me? But I feel like they'd know it would take a lot more than that to make me look scummy at this point so I think there would be some other reason. A little further back Ectomancer specifically said that he was anti-Fitz. Do you know who else quarrelled with Fitz? Luca, who's now dead. Furthermore, surely it's not a coincidence that more recently I have been leaning town on Fitz? This would fit in with the I'm still alive because my reads are wrong theory.

So I think Fitz is scum.

But that's not all. Luca was also aggressive towards Deas towards the end of his life in this game. Deas is also another person I had previously mostly considered town. Additionally, Deas' post at the start of this day feels forced. It feels like he just pumped out a load of questions to keep us occupied and try to put his opinions at the forefront; something he has not done in this game up until now. My first reaction to his post was that he is trying to take over the town and get them on his side.


So now I believe Fitz and Deas are the scum team. I've also town read fishy a lot so I'm going to be keeping an eye on him. But for now, I am only willing to vote Deas and Fitz until one of them flips. Since I have more evidence on Fitz:

VOTE: Fitz

[mutantdevle]

I think the last PR is the watcher. A cop would definitely have checked someone by now and role claimed to tell us the result. The result of the cop is either 2 confirmed townies or 1 townie and 1 scum. Either results are good.


So basically the other PR should be the watcher. The watcher should role claim if they get any result of someone visiting someone else because it confirms their target as scum and means they are 1 less person we need to consider for the lynch.

[ProHawk]

I think the last PR is the watcher. A cop would definitely have checked someone by now and role claimed to tell us the result. The result of the cop is either 2 confirmed townies or 1 townie and 1 scum. Either results are good.


So basically the other PR should be the watcher. The watcher should role claim if they get any result of someone visiting someone else because it confirms their target as scum and means they are 1 less person we need to consider for the lynch.

This is why you weren't killed. You are pretty much telegraphing your role or are a brilliant strategist. Scum was trying to hit the PR. I need to do some more scum-searching but I had been pinged by fitz for a while so your vote doesn't bother me at all.

[mutantdevle]

You are pretty much telegraphing your role or are a brilliant strategist.

What do you mean by this? I don't understand what you mean by telegraphing my role. I think you mean it's because I am putting forth the idea I am a vanilla townie and hence they wouldn't want to kill me because they'd prefer to get a power role but I am unsure.

Regardless of that, if my reads were on target I do think they would have shot me even if they would prefer to get a PR.

[ProHawk]

That's a valid point. And yes, if I had to PR hunt, you wouldn't be my first guess.

[havingfitz]

mutant...I'm leaning towards you not being scum so I'd appreciate an unvote.

I'm not scum.

[ProHawk]

mutant...I'm leaning towards you not being scum so I'd appreciate an unvote.

I'm not scum.

Am I good to vote you then?

[mutantdevle]

mutant...I'm leaning towards you not being scum so I'd appreciate an unvote.

I'm not scum.

Oh well okay then I guess that solves everything. There's absolutely no chance you could be lying to me right?


If you want me to unvote you then start the Deas wagon.

[DeasVail]

Not liking boring for scum...

Reason?

Also mutant, what are your thoughts on Fitz outside the night Kill analysis?

[mutantdevle]

I’m sure I’ve said this before but whatever. I originally considered him scum on D1 but since then I had been leaning town on him.

What are your thoughts on my night kill analysis? You seem to have conveniently ignored it.

[ProHawk]

Not liking boring for scum...

Reason?

Also mutant, what are your thoughts on Fitz outside the night Kill analysis?

Boring's hop off of UC wasn't a great play as scum. Better pay off to push a counter-wagon or just stay on the wagon and get credit for helping lynch scum. And her replace-in post really seemed like it came from a town-aligned position.

[ProHawk]

For the record, whomever decided to make town color green with the red.... ugh. Maybe because I am color-blind but its really hard to see the contrast. Town color would have been so much cooler as blue. Here is the first lynch with vote-counts in the spoiler.

Spoiler: In Living Color

Luca Blight

(3) -

IceGuy

, Lil Uzi Vert,

Transcend

DeasVail(2) -

sheepsaysmeep

, Elmo TeH AzN

IceGuy

(3) -

Ectomancer

, Fishythefish, DeasVail
Fishythefish(1) -

Yuria

havingfitz(1) -

Luca Blight

not voting (3) - mutantdevle, kelbris, havingfitz

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

Luca Blight

(3) -

IceGuy

, Lil Uzi Vert,

Transcend

IceGuy

(3) -

Ectomancer

, Fishythefish, DeasVail
DeasVail(1) -

sheepsaysmeep

Fishythefish(1) -

Yuria

havingfitz(1) -

Luca Blight

mutantdevle(1) - Elmo TeH AzN

Ectomancer

(1) - kelbris

not voting (2) - mutantdevle, havingfitz

Elmo TeH AzN(4) -

Luca Blight

,

Transcend

, mutantdevle,

Yuria

IceGuy

(3) -

Ectomancer

, Fishythefish, DeasVail
mutantdevle(2) - Elmo TeH AzN, havingfitz

Luca Blight

(1) - Viome
DeasVail(1) -

sheepsaysmeep

Ectomancer

(1) - kelbris
not voting (1) -

IceGuy

Elmo TeH AzN(5) -

Luca Blight

,

Transcend

, mutantdevle,

Yuria

,

Ectomancer

IceGuy

(2) - Fishythefish, DeasVail
mutantdevle(2) - Elmo TeH AzN, havingfitz
DeasVail(2) -

sheepsaysmeep

,

IceGuy

Luca Blight

(1) - Viome

Ectomancer

(1) - kelbris

not voting (0)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

Elmo TeH AzN(5) -

Luca Blight

,

Transcend

, mutantdevle,

Yuria

,

Ectomancer

mutantdevle(2) - Elmo TeH AzN, havingfitz

Ectomancer

(2) - kelbris,

IceGuy

DeasVail(1) -

sheepsaysmeep

Luca Blight

(1) - Viome

not voting (2) - DeasVail, Fishythefish

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

Elmo TeH AzN(5) -

Luca Blight

, mutantdevle,

Yuria

,

Ectomancer

, kelbris
kelbris(2) -

IceGuy

, Fishythefish
mutantdevle(2) - Elmo TeH AzN, havingfitz
DeasVail(1) -

sheepsaysmeep

Luca Blight

(1) - Viome

IceGuy

(1) -

Transcend

not voting (2) - DeasVail

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

Elmo TeH AzN(6) -

Luca Blight

, mutantdevle,

Ectomancer

, kelbris,

Transcend

, DeasVail
mutantdevle(3) - Elmo TeH AzN, havingfitz,

sheepsaysmeep

kelbris(2) -

IceGuy

, Fishythefish

Luca Blight

(1) - Viome

not voting (1) -

Yuria

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

boring(5) - mutantdevle,

Ectomancer

, kelbris,

Transcend

,

Luca Blight

kelbris(3) -

IceGuy

, Fishythefish,

Yuria

mutantdevle(2) - havingfitz,

sheepsaysmeep

Luca Blight

(1) - Viomi

not voting (2) - DeasVail, boring

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

boring(4) -

Ectomancer

, kelbris,

Transcend

,

Luca Blight

kelbris(4) -

IceGuy

, Fishythefish,

Yuria

, mutantdevle
mutantdevle(2) - havingfitz,

sheepsaysmeep

Transcend

(1) - Rem

sheepsaysmeep

(1) - DeasVail

not voting (1) - boring

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

kelbris(5) -

IceGuy

, Fishythefish,

Yuria

, mutantdevle,

Transcend

boring(2) -

Ectomancer

,

Luca Blight

Transcend

(2) - kelbris,

sheepsaysmeep

sheepsaysmeep

(2) - DeasVail, Rem

Ectomancer

(1) - havingfitz

not voting (1) - boring

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

boring(4) -

Luca Blight

, mutantdevle,

Transcend

,

Ectomancer

Transcend

(3) -

sheepsaysmeep

, Fishythefish, DeasVail
kelbris(2) -

IceGuy

,

Yuria

IceGuy

(2) - boring, kelbris

sheepsaysmeep

(1) - Rem

Ectomancer

(1) - havingfitz

not voting (0) -

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

IceGuy

(4) - boring, kelbris,

Ectomancer

,

Transcend

Transcend

(4) -

Yuria

,

IceGuy

, havingfitz, mutantdevle
boring(3) -

Luca Blight

, mutantdevle, Fishythefish

sheepsaysmeep

(1) - Rem

not voting (1) -

sheepsaysmeep

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

IceGuy

(4) - boring, kelbris,

Ectomancer

,

Transcend

Transcend

(4) -

Yuria

,

IceGuy

, havingfitz, mutantdevle
boring(3) -

Luca Blight

, DeasVail, Fishythefish

sheepsaysmeep

(1) - Rem

not voting (1) -

sheepsaysmeep

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

IceGuy

(4) - boring, kelbris,

Ectomancer

,

Transcend

boring(4) -

Luca Blight

, DeasVail, Fishythefish, mutantdevle

Transcend

(2) -

Yuria

, havingfitz

sheepsaysmeep

(1) - Rem

Ectomancer

(1) -

IceGuy

not voting (1) -

sheepsaysmeep

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

IceGuy

(7) - kelbris,

Ectomancer

,

Transcend

, boring,

Luca Blight

, Fishythefish, mutantdevle - Lynch!

Transcend

(2) -

Yuria

, havingfitz
boring(1) - DeasVail

sheepsaysmeep

(1) - Rem
No Lynch(1) -

IceGuy

not voting (1) -

sheepsaysmeep

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

This vote count doesn't really help support my theory of Boring being town...

A Kelbris flip would be extremely informative with this voting pattern, and I have a feeling he is going to be scum here. Take for example the run on Elmo, it looks like a town-lead wagon with the major unknown being Kelbris whose vote pressure is an ideal scum-location on the wagon if Elmo/boring-town.

This post took a ton of time to put the data together, so I'll get another more in-depth analysis on it, but take a look and make your own conjectures.

For me going through the votes, I'd like to lynch Kelbris, Fitz, and maybe Boring, but definitely not before the first two.

[havingfitz]

mutant...I'm leaning towards you not being scum so I'd appreciate an unvote.

I'm not scum.

Am I good to vote you then?

Only if you are scum.

[boring]

I'm interested in exploring the Ectomancer NK. I don't think he was clear of anyone's scum pool. So either they thought he was a PR, or he was a threat, right?

Also, we're at a point where some confirmed town would be really useful. If two PRs are left, we have at least two confirmed town (more, if there's a cop?). If we mislynch today, we're in lylo tomorrow, and I don't have a lot of faith in our/your [if I'm dead] collective scumhunting abilities. I realize that if we out both PR's, one is a guaranteed target tonight. The other tomorrow night. But if we can use the information productively, we may not even need to have a tomorrow night, so there's that.

I'm thinking an organized claim, starting with the most likely scum player claiming first, on through the least scummy.

I'd like specific claims for this reason: if we do "PR", "VT", it makes gambitting easier with a vague PR, That leaves them gladiating, and we're using our aforementioned less-than-great collective scum hunting skills, and we increase the risk of lynching a non-charismatic PR.

I propose the list order be something like: Kelbris, me, prohawk, deas, fitz, fishy, mutant. That seems to be the collective ranking of trust right now.

[boring]

Fitz and Deas were more targeted than the other players by Ectomancer yesterday. Luca, obviously, was a threat to both as well.

Also, Deas was the only player to support my rationale on Trasncend directly, and now he's voting me right out the gate. Isn't that a little weird?

[boring]

Sorry. I need to stop glossing over mutant's walls. I think he basically said ^^^^ post, but with a lot more words.

@mutant - I'm leaning more Deas, what do you think?

[havingfitz]

There's absolutely no chance you could be lying to me right?

Not this game.

If you want me to unvote you then start the Deas wagon.

I want you to unvote me because I'm town and your case on me is shit.

I'm scum because you don't know what you are doing and you think I'm town...so you must be wrong and I'm scum? Because two of the nk's both had issues with me? Gee...so let me get this straight...if I'm scum and I kill people who suspect me....town might crack my master plan? Fcuk me. Eight years on this site and a 100+ games and now I get it.

And your case on Deas is just a slightly lesser version of mine so you want me to vote him?

I'm not sure who I want to vote today yet. It might end up being Deas. Or not. All I know is the two players I'm not interested in voting atm are you and boring.

Since you're so in to analyzing stuff...what's your read on the other two players who share the same distinction as you of being on both mislynches?
Or do you think there was scum on the UCV lynch?