Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
Still working on itIn post 1006, UC Voyager wrote:
finished reading yet?In post 981, ProHawk wrote:Hi! Haven't read much yet, but I should get to it tomorrow.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
So here's the conundrum with Transcend, his reads have sucked balls. Literally on town. I realize that I have privileged information here, but for reals. He might be town, but get this, scum knows what roles to claim to draw out counter-claims. He would know exactly what to claim to be able to possibly avoid a lynch (like he did) and still be able to out a PR. He claimed right before he was about to get lynched. Sure he could have said "don't claim" but really? That shit needs to be shut down and quick. Meta like that is detrimental to winning. Like he seriously put us in a shitty place here.
I dont fucking know, but I do know he can't make it to endgame.
VOTE: Transcend-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
I'm not replacing out and I'll be here.
I've heard this before, and you should know better. I'm really not convinced that Transcend is scum, but you should feel bad for giving him a pass D1. Your post right after that shit went down was absolute garbage. The fact that he *could* be scum AND that scum would never night-kill him make him a strategic lynch in the least. Look, his gambit could have EASILY been planned and executed as scum with less risk than normal (it doesn't seem like hes really a player that cares about risk anyway, in fact probably revels in it)In post 1087, Luca Blight wrote:I don't like Pr0's 1054 - it feels unnatural after scumreading the likes of Fitz and Kelbris to suddenly vote Transcend for being anti-town - he doesn't sound at all convinced in his post that Transcend is actually scum.
You also fail to realize that I was making posts during my reading progression.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
Its almost like you don't even care that he got a PR outed and killed and lived to tell the tale...In post 1095, Luca Blight wrote:How's your reading progression going now, then? Give an overview of your current reads.
Regarding Transcend, I wasn't scumreading him prior to the 'gambit', nor do I think it is something scum are likely to do on D1 except possibly as a last resort, so I'm not Ok with him just being policy-lynched right off the bat as some seem to wish. If there are no other good lynch candidates then fine, lynch him, but there are a few I'd like to see dead before him.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
I've read all of D1, none of D2 save the posts since I replaced in. And by read, I may have speed read a few posts.
Mutant is probably the most town in my list due to spec that doesn't seem like its coming from the mindset of scum.
Boring's replace in was extremely town in my estimation and she goes into my town pile. Self-vote was bad though...
Fish's posts seem to have a town feel to me, haven't really evaluated in depth but I am comfortable placing him in the town pile
Ecto, and DV I need to spend more time looking at, they sit somewhere in the middle for me. Voyager... I'm not real sure about either, lack of time spent reading his posts, but didn't get scum-vibes from sheep.
I just got done playing with Scum-Luca and have no experience with his town game, but he is very verbose and active as scum - asks a lot of questions early on, gets hung up on minute details. I can see a bit of that here in this game too. I would need more evaluation here though. I can't figure out why he dropped the pressure on Fitz.
I can't get over the opening play by HavingFitz in asking for mod-confirmation of a claim and then voting said person when the claim was clarified as being false. His post just sounded like he knew that Trans was lying and he would have absolutely known that as scum. Call it conf-bias but his posts since then haven't swayed my view. - Scum
For Kelbris... I'd have to go back and search for the post but there was one during my read that made me think... scum. We'll call this gut until I get some more digging time.
Transcendence.... Villiage Idiot. Being that he claimed at L-3 and not at L-1 like I had thought for some reason... he may be town but still falls into a dont-let-live to endgame category.
VOTE: HavingFitz-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
I think Transcend would be a strategic lynch. I'm probably around the 35% ish mark on him flipping scum.... not super high unfortunately.In post 1108, Fishythefish wrote:@ProHawk: your post doesn't really give any alignment reads on any people who are actually being voted for (Transcend, DV, UC). Is there any more you can say on them (maybe by reading them more specifically)?
Yes, let me go tread through posts on those two. Have you talked about Fitz in your evaluations?-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
Hold your horses Fitzy. Lotsa misdirection here!In post 1121, havingfitz wrote:
The nerve of me voting someone who had lied about their role...and then voting them again later when they did it again with more damaging results.In post 1107, ProHawk wrote:I can't get over the opening play by HavingFitz in asking for mod-confirmation of a claim and then voting said person when the claim was clarified as being false. His post just sounded like he knew that Trans was lying and he would have absolutely known that as scum. Call it conf-bias but his posts since then haven't swayed my view. - Scum
How is asking the mod to confirm an IC claim scummy? That's a feature of the IC role...it's mod confirmable. I would do the same with any other role that came with such a guarantee. So you come up with a shit reason to suspect me and use that as a scum tell against me all the while when it sounds like you have the same view towards Transcend's actions...
Question....how would I know Transcend was lying? Even if I were scum, which I am not, I would not know who the IC was. And unless you think scum passed on having the most useless PR of the 5 in the game...there is an IC out there somewhere. So how would I as scum "have absolutely known that?" Unless you are suggesting I am scum that knew there wasn't an IC....which is laughable imo to suggest.
So I am voting him at the moment (though probably not for long), and that is also something you would like to see transpire before too long as well (eliminating Transcend), yet despite this similar viewpoint I'm a better recipient of your vote because I caused him to out his fakeclaim?In post 1107, ProHawk wrote:Transcendence.... Villiage Idiot. Being that he claimed at L-3 and not at L-1 like I had thought for some reason... he may be town but still falls into a dont-let-live to endgame category.
Good stuff.
1) Issue isn't about you voting someone who lied about their role, issue is that I believe you knew they were lying and used that information to force them into admitting that lie, subsequently voting them.
2) Don't play dumb, you know exactly how scum would have known there was no IC role in the game. Also, IMO IC is one of the strongest roles in the poison pool but we could save that convo for another time if you want...
3) What does you voting Transcend have anything to do with you being scum exactly?-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
I did think there was a decent probability of Transcend being scum when I had originally thought he duress-claimed at L-1, but that was my mistake. A claim at L-3 fits more with the VI narrative which doesn't preclude him from being scum, just less likely.havingfitz wrote:So Pro....no misdirection intended. Let me be more clear (hopefully).
Question to Pro---> do you think Transcend is town or scum and does that answer impact your read on me?
So your scum!fitz premise is that I knew Transcend was lying and responded the way I did to implicate him.
If you want to propagate a theory that there is not an IC in this game that's fine. I think that is a major reach given that IMO IC is the weakest of the PRs available and there has not been a PYP game yet (that I've found) that hasn't had an IC. Granted...none of them had a JK either so you never know. I don't think there is a 2*Vig because there wasn't a 2nd nk N1. So that leaves 2 of three between IC/1-shot Cop/and Tracker. If I had to bet it would be the 1*Cop and scum take their chances on a single investigation along with an IC. Vice a tracker that could track every night. If you think scum are more likely to select a cop or tracker over an IC then we're done talking and you're delusional.
If there IS an IC...
Scum!me would know there was an IC but not know who it was, so my mod confirmation question would be coming from a legitimate confirmation objective....i.e. NAI.
Town!me would not know what PRs are out there but my opinion would be that there was almost gauranteed to be an IC. And as I also said...if someone is going to claim a PR and I have a way of confirming it (ex. mod confirmation)...I'm going to ask to have it confirmed. And in this case it happened to expose Transcend as fakeclaiming. Which after a little more discussion I was willing to accept as a joke (the who innocent "chile" wording smartassery).
The voting Transcend bit was regarding the fact that you push a case on me being scum because I knew transcend was lying and tried to out him...yet you share the similar opinion that he needs to be out of the game and are voting with the person you are scum reading (me) for trying to implicate transcend and get him out of the game.
I.e you are saying I am scum but agree with me.
tl:dr;
1. I'm town.
2. I believe there is an IC in this gameas history would suggest.
3. Pro's push on me is based on scum!me knowing there ISN'T an IC in this game (see pt 2).
4. Despite scum reading me Pro agrees with my logic regarding getting rid of Transcend.
5. Pro's push on me is scummy for points 1, 3 & 5.
6. VOTE: ProHawk
Why does history have anything to do with it? I don't think there is an IC in the game. I haven't done a lot of setup spec so I'm not really sure. It was just a hunch that I can't shake about your post.
Also, you being scum doesn't make you wrong about everything.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
Forgot to answer the end part of this post, yes if Transcend was scum, it would make you less likely scum.In post 1177, havingfitz wrote:do you think Transcend is town or scum and does that answer impact your read on me?-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
My biggest concern with lynching UCV is that his reads and his votes have been out of left field. Except for his unvote, he has kinda been in his own world without any regard to what people think about him. Like I think he's on the wrong track, but I feel like he believes what he is sayin. I'll go peruse through his scum game I guess...
There was one post that struck me as scummy and it was him talking about not wanting to end the day early because its "good for town".-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
You are a terribad player, jsykIn post 1241, Transcend wrote:VOTE: voy
Fuck it
Flip this and night kills
I think it greens but his posting is bad and this is inevitable anyways-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
No, you don't even care if he is town or scum. You don't even care if he is a PR or not. You just lynch him without giving him a chance to either WIFOM or claim or anything. You just suck at this game, and me knowing my alignment makes you suck all the more. Literally if you aren't scum, you are because all you are doing is helping them win.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
It's not just me... roflIn post 892, Luca Blight wrote:The problem is if Transcend is Town then it's basically a wet dream come true for scum.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
Didn't care about letting Ecto or Fitz have any comments?In post 1379, kelbris wrote:btw boring, the reason I hammered when I did was because Transcend blasted every attempt I made to defend him into dust AND failed to answer my question, had he answered my question regarding Viomi, I might have been able to overlook his vt claim, but combining that claim (which for all I knew could have been BS like his other claims) and the fact that my question was ignored on multiple occasions, I saw no other course of action then to hammer.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
This is why you weren't killed. You are pretty much telegraphing your role or are a brilliant strategist. Scum was trying to hit the PR. I need to do some more scum-searching but I had been pinged by fitz for a while so your vote doesn't bother me at all.In post 1384, mutantdevle wrote:I think the last PR is the watcher. A cop would definitely have checked someone by now and role claimed to tell us the result. The result of the cop is either 2 confirmed townies or 1 townie and 1 scum. Either results are good.
So basically the other PR should be the watcher. The watcher should role claim if they get any result of someone visiting someone else because it confirms their target as scum and means they are 1 less person we need to consider for the lynch.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
Am I good to vote you then?In post 1388, havingfitz wrote:mutant...I'm leaning towards you not being scum so I'd appreciate an unvote.
I'm not scum.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
Boring's hop off of UC wasn't a great play as scum. Better pay off to push a counter-wagon or just stay on the wagon and get credit for helping lynch scum. And her replace-in post really seemed like it came from a town-aligned position.In post 1391, DeasVail wrote:
Reason?In post 1380, ProHawk wrote:Not liking boring for scum...
Also mutant, what are your thoughts on Fitz outside the night Kill analysis?-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
For the record, whomever decided to make town color green with the red.... ugh. Maybe because I am color-blind but its really hard to see the contrast. Town color would have been so much cooler as blue. Here is the first lynch with vote-counts in the spoiler.
Spoiler: In Living Color
This vote count doesn't really help support my theory of Boring being town...In post 869, davesaz wrote:
IceGuy(7) - kelbris,Ectomancer,Transcend, boring,Luca Blight, Fishythefish, mutantdevle - Lynch!
Transcend(2) -Yuria, havingfitz
boring(1) - DeasVail
sheepsaysmeep(1) - Rem
No Lynch(1) -IceGuy
not voting (1) -sheepsaysmeep
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch
A Kelbris flip would be extremely informative with this voting pattern, and I have a feeling he is going to be scum here. Take for example the run on Elmo, it looks like a town-lead wagon with the major unknown being Kelbris whose vote pressure is an ideal scum-location on the wagon if Elmo/boring-town.
This post took a ton of time to put the data together, so I'll get another more in-depth analysis on it, but take a look and make your own conjectures.
For me going through the votes, I'd like to lynch Kelbris, Fitz, and maybe Boring, but definitely not before the first two.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
I think I like the idea of mass claiming! We have lotsa time so I motion that we all vote on who claims first. Majority vote goes first.
It's crucial that we get scum to claim first to lock them into who they want to go up against, the PR group or the VT group.
CLAIM: FITZ
Fitz has been playing a game very safe and close to the chest. He is either a PR or Scum.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
That's what I was trying to get out of you...In post 1395, havingfitz wrote:
Only if you are scum.In post 1389, ProHawk wrote:
Am I good to vote you then?In post 1388, havingfitz wrote:mutant...I'm leaning towards you not being scum so I'd appreciate an unvote.
I'm not scum.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
Lame...In post 1430, havingfitz wrote:Might be awhile as boring tends to post in the mid to late PM (est) timeframe and Fish is awol.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
Why did you say this? Clearly order mattered to youIn post 1423, mutantdevle wrote:Tbh if you have nothing to hide then the order shouldn’t matter. The order we claim in only effects scum. This applies to both of you. You should both claim once you click on this thread next regardless of who’s claimed before you.-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012
-
-
ProHawk Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: July 26, 2012