Open 700: Donner Party - ENDGAME

[MathBlade]

Will be on late tonight and post catch-up thoughts then. Long as fuck day.

[MathBlade]

I am waaaaaaaaaay too tipsy tonight and my catch up post didn't make sense to me. I swear I am doing it late tomorrow though. (I have Shadowrun in the morning.)

[MathBlade]

Nope not a cannibal. I had pizza before I replaced in. I townread the piggy so I'm vegan this game.

[MathBlade]

Northsidegal but you're making piggy look appetizing for lynching with sk hunting

[MathBlade]

Skim and find sk with tipsy powers go

Advantage tipsy math As I had already read just no catch post

[MathBlade]

It felt right to burst on to the thread in a really obvious/over the top way. I didn't thoroughly read the setup, and knowing that the sk had nightfall immunity would have changed strategy. But by then I had already committed.

to tell you the truth i townread that rationale pretty hard. how would knowing the sk has 1 shot bulletproof change your strat, or is that rolefishing / better left unsaid?

to tell you the truth implies northsidegal has something to hide. I want them to say everything they wanted to say..

[MathBlade]

Needs more content or they may be a cannibal. Feed me reads diet and reasons diet.

you too Porkens.

[MathBlade]

I am gonna have sads if three townies died.

I really think that two or three townies died. Just need to look at key here and make a judgment call on that.

With three kills and limited activity afterwards implies killers active. North side gal leaving this out of the assessment makes me really scared about north.

VOTE: North

[MathBlade]

It felt right to burst on to the thread in a really obvious/over the top way. I didn't thoroughly read the setup, and knowing that the sk had nightfall immunity would have changed strategy. But by then I had already committed.

to tell you the truth i townread that rationale pretty hard. how would knowing the sk has 1 shot bulletproof change your strat, or is that rolefishing / better left unsaid?

to tell you the truth implies northsidegal has something to hide. I want them to say everything they wanted to say..

i don't put a lot of weight into "slips" or just linguistic quirks like that, and i don't think you should either. i said "to tell you the truth" because although i would think that either to other people or just looking at it on a surface level porkens' reasoning is rather weak, i've seen people use that exact same strategy as scumhunting before and i recognize the reason

why

it makes sense.

I do and sometimes don't. If the player is a more "off the cuff" type player who rapid posts and is very much stream of consciousness I let it go. However your posts take a lot more of an analytical stance which means since you're much more of a careful player I do consider it for your posts.

I am gonna have sads if three townies died.

I really think that two or three townies died. Just need to look at key here and make a judgment call on that.

With three kills and limited activity afterwards implies killers active. North side gal leaving this out of the assessment makes me really scared about north.

VOTE: North

could you explain this a bit more? if i'm not wrong we have 48 hour night phases and i'm pretty sure this one was made even longer by the lack of a replacement. why would the killers be active just after the night ends if they had 48 hours to submit their kills?

It's more I don't see a person being inactive hopping off doing a kill then not posting in game. That's in very poor taste. This means that of the likely players this means that they are at least active pre and/or post flip. I don't see scum just mystically disappearing after a kill. In my experience that hasn't happened from scum. So since we have three kills submitted then why disappear after you got what you wanted. Scum would need to maintain that control. Hence scum are much more likely in the actives rather than the inactives. Especially with vocal voices like A50 and Transcend dead.

[MathBlade]

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

[MathBlade]

So a huge if but if I'm right and Almost50 was town vig then Almost50 almost certainly shot Key.

This means the Transcend and Almost50 kills were scum and the SK respectively.

This means that Transcend and Almost 50 were fear kills.

[MathBlade]

It's more I don't see a person being inactive hopping off doing a kill then not posting in game. That's in very poor taste. This means that of the likely players this means that they are at least active pre and/or post flip. I don't see scum just mystically disappearing after a kill. In my experience that hasn't happened from scum. So since we have three kills submitted then why disappear after you got what you wanted. Scum would need to maintain that control. Hence scum are much more likely in the actives rather than the inactives. Especially with vocal voices like A50 and Transcend dead.

i can see what you're saying regarding the second part of your post but for the first part you haven't really given a really good reason, so i still disagree. when it comes to the post count or activity point though, you came to the opposite concusion that i did. two of the three dead were among the most active posters, so rather than scum attempting to dominate the conversation themselves i think it's far more likely they want to take advantage of the lurkers. it was even noticed yesterday how so many people hadn't really added a lot to the game, so to me it seems like scum are either in within the lurkers or setting the lurkers up for the fall, and either way they're attempting to use the lack of activity to their advantage.

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

i responded in 185 and let me tell you - even if i was scum i wouldn't be scared of almost's attempts to push my lynch.

I didn't say Almost50 was pushing your lynch and so you shot him. I said that's what happened with scum.

I said Almost50 was a fear kill from scum. So you're probably the SK then. Got it. Cool.

Pedit: I don't believe that and I strongly believe it to be a joke either that or Porkens is scum.

Pedit again: Almost likely shot keychain because it is a common vig trope to vote who you are gonna shoot. It's a verifiable bread crumb later.
Second: It depends. Mainly in a game like this yes. If they feel they can't survive they have to kill the person pushing them sometimes. It depends on the competency of the player killed. Despite Transcend's and my style of play differences Transcend is regarded as a good player same with A50. That makes them much more likely fear kills.

pedit 3: Or that if they saw what I did but then only newb group scum would push the vig. SK wouldn't want attention.

[MathBlade]

If I'm still alive tomorrow which i doubt because i reckon both sk and mafia will kill me let's double team Keychain

With Transcend and Almost50 both suspecting Key I'm pretty damn certain Key was scum.

[MathBlade]

So then mainly what I need to do is a minor vote analysis in that specific point to see why a Key wagon didn't pick up and what specifically got vocal around that timeframe.

(Oh and FYI I love flipless scum do stupid shit in flipless...I'm actually halfway decent town in a flipless...Shhhhhhhhh apparently it's a big mafiascum secret and I like am sucky or something)

[MathBlade]

I didn't say Almost50 was pushing your lynch and so you shot him. I said that's what happened with scum.

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

so if that's not what you're saying, then what exactly are you saying here? your sentence is a little hard to understand. even more, it's not exactly a huge leap to look at you mentioning me possibly intentionally ignoring something and the reason why almost died in one sentence and to take it that you're implying i killed him.

I said it was a possibility. Not the likely probability. I still suspect you as being the SK. Group scum is a possibility but not as likely.

I was referring to almost50 being the vig most likely. There's a hugely blatant vig crumb there and I'd be very much surprised if anyone else is actually the town vig. Mainly I'm trying to ascertain whether you generally missed it or whether or not you're scum/SK and pretending. Especially when I suggested fear kills and then said "hey probably not that probably because they were the vig" despite me offering no reasoning why and most people on the site call my role spec crazy. (Although recently I've been on a streak with that. See the newbie game I recently IC'd and we lost because well newb town decided not to listen lol and I have to work on my influence skills)

You can't both say you missed the vig and say that's why A50 was killed in the same breath.

It's either A50 is a fear kill or A50 was killed for being the likely vig.

[MathBlade]

If I'm still alive tomorrow which i doubt because i reckon both sk and mafia will kill me let's double team Keychain

With Transcend and Almost50 both suspecting Key I'm pretty damn certain Key was scum.

is that just an argument from both of them being good players? besides, almost's scumread on key was predicated on the idea that transcend was also scum. if you take it that both of them suspecting key makes her scum you would also be saying that transcend was bussing his partner. which, ironically he said in 261:

Because I'm bussing my shit partner lol

of course, it's possible that one of them was the serial killer and so even though the scumread was predicated on trasncend being scum, they still could've been a part of different factions. that idea doesn't hold up, however, because we know that the serial killer hasn't died.

First of all on the second paragraph the idea that Almost could be thinking Transcend is the SK doesn't hold up is bad. Almost could have had thought that and been wrong. However here I doubt it. Almost to be quite honest I don't think has enough experience with Transcend to read him. The simple answer is: if he's antitown and annoys you he's town just ignore him til he tries to be nice. {{Transcend if you read this I'm sorry for if this comes off rude but not the main point....}}

Furthermore, no I wouldn't. That actually makes Transcend town with a scumread on Key.

Transcend hard claimed scum in mini 1900 and I tunnelled him literally to a town loss for it. He jokes around claiming scum all the time and it pisses me off. He was trying to goad almost50 into voting key who he genuinely thought was scum.

[MathBlade]

Not_Mafia*
Assemblerotws*
havingfitz - sheepsaysmeep
northsidegal
PMysterious
Gödel
MathBlade - Elmo TeH AzN
Porkens - Maki Harukawa

Looks like no Robocop.

I'd like the following people:
Nsg
Mathblade
Porkens
Not mafia
Havingfitz

To choose a lynch from this pool:
Godel
Pmsteryous
Assembler

Your pool sucks and needs cleaning.

My pool is North you and NotMafia and assemble. However the latter two baaaaaaaaaaaaaarely have their fingers in and that's because they haven't done jack and could be scum lurking but again that's in so poor taste I only want to go there if I townread literally every other player.

[MathBlade]

If a50 was the big, the person he ate would flip.

You have one more post before to turn yourself around.

If a50 was the vig, his flip gets sucked by whoever shot him. Hence no flip. His shot would go to the cannibal who killed him. Ask the mod.

[MathBlade]

My pool is North you and NotMafia and assemble. However the latter two baaaaaaaaaaaaaarely have their fingers in and that's because they haven't done jack and could be scum lurking but again that's in so poor taste I only want to go there if I townread literally every other player.

why do you clear godel and pmyst? why do you scumread porkens?

I don't clear them perse I just suspect both you and porkens more. I don't "clear" anyone.

I scumread porkens because porkens play is hella weird and because his pool is terribad. He is asking you questions and not following up.

Pedit: Porkens I don't believe you. Who are you claiming to shoot and why?

[MathBlade]

Oh no..I read your joke posts at the start of the game. I believe you're trying to attract an NK or an evil cannibal not the town vig.

[MathBlade]

And if you are the town vig you'd answer the questions north and I asked.

I'm quite wondering if this game is just solved and it's north and porkens. North being group scum with key and porkens being the SK and almost 50 and key is in porkens belly and north has transcends remains.

[MathBlade]

And if you are the town vig you'd answer the questions north and I asked.

I'm quite wondering if this game is just solved and it's north and porkens. North being group scum with key and porkens being the SK and almost 50 and key is in porkens belly and north has transcends remains.

consider how you're scumreading the more active people and certainly the only people who have been active today. don't you think it's likely you're making large conclusions just based on what you've seen rather than the entire gamestate?

Oh you're trying to imply it's only based on what I have seen. I guarantee you I have read this thread and am entirely caught up and it's on all of it. Getting your question in a sec.

[MathBlade]

A winner is you!

VOTE: mathblade

In that crazy fountain game, math, I replaced in and town read you so fucking hard that when you flipped scum, I KNEW your flip had been tampered with.

This game, not at all.

A) I didn't flip ANYTHING I was janitored.
B) You aren't townreading me because I scumread you.
C) If you were the town vig you'd actually give TOWN the info here of who you killed and their alignment.
Reason being if scum believe you and you're the vig you're dead
and if scum don't believe you then you get more time to operate and shoot scum.
D) Knowing what someone's alignment was makes it infinitely easier to put this puzzle together. And if you're ever wrong on an alignment you become policy.

So who'd you kill? Why? And what were they?

[MathBlade]

I ate transcend cause I thought he was crummy and irritatingly non contributor. He was vanilla. Still delicious.

Again...This was a joke.

I'm waiting for porkens to tell the truth. Because I don't believe porkens.

And if porkens was an actual vig porkens would just eat me. However Porkens isn't a vig and is scum so Porkens has to push me.

[MathBlade]

so here are my stream of consciousness thoughts about the nightkills, taking into account the new information. among keychain and a50, one was the mafia shot and one was the serial killer shot. i just can't see any serial killer motivation for killing a50, whereas if i consider the scenario where the sk killed keychain, godel's name jumps into my mind immediately. that slot just moved a lot more down the list for me. then, if we're to take it that the sk shot keychain, mafia shot a50. i'm not entirely sure why this would happen so it casts doubt in my mind if this is the case. possibilities for who as mafia would want a50 dead would be a mafia keychain and... can't really think of anyone else. i'll definitely have to think about this a bit more.

this is all assuming, of course, that porkens is telling the truth.

LOL This is a crock. No decent SK/scum ever shoots keychain.

Keychain was primed and ready for pressure by multiple players.

[MathBlade]

C) If you were the town vig you'd actually give TOWN the info here of who you killed and their alignment.
Reason being if scum believe you and you're the vig you're dead
and if scum don't believe you then you get more time to operate and shoot scum.

wait, what are you trying to say here? you've said that you scumread porkens for the odd play, but aren't you saying here yourself that it makes sense for porkens to act so unorthox about being the vig? all of the baiting makes a lot more sense now. if scum don't believe porkens, she should be able to stay alive longer. also, you have to forgive me if i don't really understand how your reasoning supports your assertion. the two things seem pretty unrelated, to me. like, that reasoning would actually support porkens lying about her info, because then it'd be like hypoclaiming - scum would think porkens is lying if she said she shot the person that scum actually shot (given that we know there were three separate kills).

Yes I do scumread porkens for the odd play.
I'm not saying anything about making sense to be unorthodox.
I'm asking porkens to be orthodox.

At this point if porkens is the vig he's outed. That means to give as much info as possible because if scum believe porkens porkens is dead.
So the simple answer is to be upfront and honest about who porkens shot and why.

There's literally nothing I can find in porkens iso that supports shooting transcend.

However ironically enough I do believe porkens shot transcend if they were telling the truth just they aren't the town vig IMHO.

[MathBlade]

And if porkens was an actual vig porkens would just eat me. However Porkens isn't a vig and is scum so Porkens has to push me.

why wouldn't scum porkens also just eat you?

Because my being eaten or my flip implicates porkens way too much.

Porkens wants me to shut the fuck up and tries to intimidate me with a vote but apparently porkens hasn't seen a math tunnel.

Because porkens is going down and we are winning this game.

[MathBlade]

I swear to god you flipped scum in that game. I have a vivid memory of it. But it's not there now, so...huh.

Here are the notes I had for it:

VOTE COUNT 1 . 19
XnadrojX ------ 3 ( Nahdia, JaeReed, Lil Uzi Vert, Purple Nurple, Impoetic ) L- 2
Purple Nurple - 2 ( Garrybote, osuka ) L- 3
Nahdia -------- 1 ( Oggs Benedict ) L- 4



- MathBlade Smocaine* Oggs benedict** (Lynched but Janitored)
- Lil Uzi Vert***
- Eddie Cane/Skirt Skirt*** Purple Nurple (Hydra of mastina and Eddie Cane)** (TOWN AS FUCK)

- XnadrojX Aristophanes** (TOWN POST RESTRICTION RESTRICTION BREAKING GLADIATOR)


RadiantCowbells osuka* Section 9 (Hydra of Zachstralkita and kraska77) Mathblade was town AF

{Impoetic, RC}
{Gerryoat}
{Nahdia}
{Jaereed/Sonia, Skirt}
{LUV}





- Nahdia**
- Impoetic***

- gerryoat
- xSoniaNevermindx* JaeReed*




Me - Asectic Tracker
Gerry - Flavour Cop
Impoetic - 1-Shot Masonier
Nahida - Crier
osuka - ??
Purple - Split Jailkeeper
Sonia - Reflective Director

You are right. muh bad. still, I knew you were town anyway. and I was right!

And guess what I am town and you are scum!

[MathBlade]

You try and refute the fact that you scumread (or cannibalread ) the players that questioned your thought process, then follow it up by doing exactly that.

You know what's wrong with this? It's the fact that id if it is

true

then I'm definitely

not a cannibal

. And you know what that means? It means I'm

definitely not scum

. You know why? Because

all scum are cannibals

, so I cannot be a non-cannibal and still be scum at the same time.

But I feel like I've done a good job exposing all scumsters in one go through my behaviour, so I don't mind eating rope tofay in order to get the VIG IN PARTICULAR to follow my reads.

Irrelevant:

@Comm: Did you have to be the mod in this game? We seem to need a

good vig

in the block, my friend.

Here Almost50 claims vig.

In the case Porkens is the vig and Transcend was a vanilla kill then the SK has to shoot Almost 50 because they'd be mafia.

However I highly doubt that because if Porkens was the vig Porkens shoots Almost50 here without a doubt.

[MathBlade]

There's no chance Porkens who claims to be vig misses Almost50's vig claim. None.

[MathBlade]

Hence why Porkens claiming to shoot Transcend is a crock.

[MathBlade]

Why would I kill the guy softing vig?

Because there's only one vig and that'd be you.

Then again you're not town so you're not thinking like town.

[MathBlade]

Convince me you aren't the sk

Instead your last votes and posts are about PMsterious and UCVoyager. Transcend was a vote in there but not nearly enough to support a vig shot.

[MathBlade]

Yes I do scumread porkens for the odd play.
I'm not saying anything about making sense to be unorthodox.
I'm asking porkens to be orthodox.

right, and what i'm saying is that porkens

should

be acting unorthodox - the theatrics clearly cast doubt on the claim as evidenced by your disbelief, so if scum don't believe porkens then she lives another day.

And if porkens was an actual vig porkens would just eat me. However Porkens isn't a vig and is scum so Porkens has to push me.

why wouldn't scum porkens also just eat you?

Because my being eaten or my flip implicates porkens way too much.

Porkens wants me to shut the fuck up and tries to intimidate me with a vote but apparently porkens hasn't seen a math tunnel.

Because porkens is going down and we are winning this game.

ah, i see what you're saying - if porkens was the vigilante then rather than voting you today she'd just save you for the nightkill, right? hmm... makes sense, but i feel like it's a simplification. after all, the vigilante presumably still votes a person they scumread during the day, correct? there's no reason they couldn't both vote someone they scumread and choose another scumread for the nightkill.

No. Absolutely not. Porkens should not be acting unorthodox at all. The time to be unorthodox was

before

she claimed.

She absolutely lost that right when she didn't kill the player crumbing vig and then claiming vig with an absolutely atrocious kill in the case she is the vig.

If she is the vig and then SK killed Almost50 and mafia killed keychain (again why??? it's literally silly at that point as keychain was under a fuck ton of pressure) then the SK or mafia will shoot her simply because the number of bodies is piling up. They cannot afford to not shoot her and take the claim seriously.

[MathBlade]

there were a lot of people who talked about the vig shot in ways that could be interpreted as soft claims - taken alone, i'm not sure there's any reason to put more faith in one over the other.

Even if you make that argument, transcend wasn't one of those players.

[MathBlade]

However Almost50 I'm almost certain was the vig and shot keychain. If I was allowed to bet I seriously would.

[MathBlade]

However what we do know is under threat of policy Porkens almost certainly told us the truth and that Transcend was a vanilla.

[MathBlade]

... I don't understand why that wasn't hammer?

Vote Count 1.5

[0]

Almost50

[0]

Not_Mafia

[1]

Assemblerotws

Not_Mafia,
[0]

sheepsaysmeep

[2]

Keychain

Transcend, Almost50,
[1]

Transcend

PMysterious,
[1]

northsidegal

sheepsaysmeep,
[0]

PMysterious

[5]

UC Voyager

Assemblerotws, Elmo TeH AzN, northsidegal, Gödel, Porkens,
[1]

Gödel

Keychain,
[0]

Elmo TeH AzN

[1]

Porkens

UC Voyager,

Note Voting:

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Day Ends:

(expired on 2017-11-07 15:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Elmo & Sheep have requested replacement. Should have one filled by tonight and the other filled within 24 hours. (Why is it always before work with this stuff?)

town game

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=73542&p=9693424#p9693424

I was Non consecutive jail keeper
I was forced to claim day one...and was killed night one

Being forced to claim day one, that implies that you were acting scummy in that game, and I don't need to read in order to figure that one out. I remember being in your shoes, but that's mostly because I overreacted in every case this occurs in. Since Trans doesn't seem like the likely lynch today and UC was on my list of scummy people, its best to get the most scummy player out of the way.

VOTE: UC Voyager That should be L-1.

VOTE: uc voy

Greens but who cares

Not i

Assemblerotws, Elmo TeH AzN, northsidegal, Gödel, Porkens, PMysterious and Transcend makes 7 to lynch, and I didn't see any unvotes. Where am I miscounting? Also welcome Fitz!

Assuming it's not twilight:

VOTE: Transcend

Since nobody's going to lynch Goedel today are they

Because i tried to lol hammer and they think it's a scum gesture

Yeah.
It seemed very much like a combination of hammering a townie and yet in the followup still trying to reap the towncred for a correct read for the next day like in 491. Trying to avoid blame. Win-win situation for scum, harder to understand from town. PM was at least voting a scumread. I think I could also vote A50 for avoiding commenting on the whole thing.

Lynch assembler

Oh hey you're in this game still trying to lynch easy targets huh


PEdit: wow

jesus

Oooh maybe it's Porkens and Key and just north is SK or derp town? I don't see how Porkens shoots Transcend here at all with the dead townie FoS'ing transcend. That's bullshit. A push on Transcend was possible unless keychain was scum and it'd look weird coming from the partner.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Porkens

I want dead piggy scum.

[MathBlade]

No. Absolutely not. Porkens should not be acting unorthodox at all. The time to be unorthodox was

before

she claimed.

She absolutely lost that right when she didn't kill the player crumbing vig and then claiming vig with an absolutely atrocious kill in the case she is the vig.

If she is the vig and then SK killed Almost50 and mafia killed keychain (again why??? it's literally silly at that point as keychain was under a fuck ton of pressure) then the SK or mafia will shoot her simply because the number of bodies is piling up. They cannot afford to not shoot her and take the claim seriously.

i was about to make a point to the effect of "the fact that you still don't believe her means that if she is telling the truth, there's still a chance scum don't believe her", but then i thought about it a bit more. assuming that no killing role died and thus in each killer's larder there is only one body (just because it would complicate things), scum would know if porkens is lying if she claimed the same kill as them. if that's not the case, then there's still a doubt in both the serial killer and in mafia's mind as to whether or not she's telling the truth, so i think my point still stands.

there were a lot of people who talked about the vig shot in ways that could be interpreted as soft claims - taken alone, i'm not sure there's any reason to put more faith in one over the other.

Even if you make that argument, transcend wasn't one of those players.

are you taking almost's 176 as a vig claim? i don't interpret it that way at all. also, he was one of those players.

not hammer*

also keychain gets vigged @vig

no exceptions

she is scum

i have her pinned down for sure

no your point doesn't still stand.

Three bodies a night.
Assuming Porkens is town (hahahahahahahahahaha comedy hour), if three bodies fall again tonight and Porkens is still alive then Porkens is literally the one player that can make this a town win instead of a scum clusterfuck. There is no chance that scum don't shoot Porkens if she isn't lynched here. The scum literally cannot afford bodies to drop that fast just like we can't as town.

I've played with Almost for literally a year+ of game time. I know when Almost is crumbing and when he isn't. Just because you missed it doesn't mean I didn't.

And Transcend begged the vig to shoot keychain.

Guess what if Transcend was the vig you'd still be running up Porkens for claiming Transcend vanilla. He'd claim Transcend scum of some kind as that's the only way he'd have a kill. So no Transcend was shot because Porkens wanted him dead because Transcend was a threat to Porkens.

[MathBlade]

Math, it's question time.

Why did I soft cannibal yesterday?

To prevent the gunsmith from checking you and deflect a possible guilty in advance.

[MathBlade]

Oooh maybe it's Porkens and Key and just north is SK or derp town?

I don't see how Porkens shoots Transcend here at all with the dead townie FoS'ing transcend. That's bullshit. A push on Transcend was possible unless keychain was scum and it'd look weird coming from the partner.

serial killer or derp town, huh? what exactly have i done that warrants either one of these reads? what about my play is scummy or "derp"?

also, could you elaborate on the bolded part? completely honestly, it doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

As a vig you need to shoot someone who you feel cannot be lynched. Transcend was under suspicion by keychain and almost 50. In other words he's a bad shot as he could be lynched tomorrow. Hence why the shot is bullshit again because pushing transcend was possible unless Keychain is Porkens partner and she got scared and fear killed Transcend.

[MathBlade]

How would softing cannibal prevent the gunsmith from checking me?

Because it's useless to check you. They'd get the cannibal status that you already claimed. And if you ever got pressured you'd just point to the crumb.

Think about it a minute if you were so obvious why weren't you shot? That's right because you're scum.

[MathBlade]

Question 2:

Why would A50 soft Vig?

Because A50 knows that town finding each other in a multiball game is important. It's not enough to kill scum because without flips there is no proof.
Instead it has to be telegraphed in such a way that looking back it is unmistakable but forwards it is overlooked. Crumbing has to be done with care and caution.

[MathBlade]

So A50 crumbs Vig because he's totes good at Mafia.
and I crumb Vig because I'm scum.

About right?

That is a drastic oversimplification.

It means ONE of you is mafia wholeheartedly.
However you're not acting like Almost50 is mafia when he should be confirmed mafia to you.

Based on Almost50's kill making sense and yours not. Your play not making sense and Almost50's is.
Your horrible shot as it wasn't on Almost50

It's more a convolution of those factors.
And the fact you're still standing too. And the fact you were freaking blatant versus Almost50 who was subtle.

[MathBlade]

I think A50 was trying to draw the nightkill if that was actually a soft at all, and I'm not convinced it was.

Why would I kill Transcend as SK/Maf?

Because Keychain is your buddy if mafia.
And because if SK it would be an incompetent one or one designed to sow chaos or reduce mafia numbers too early.
Hence why I think you are mafia.

[MathBlade]

I've played with Almost for literally a year+ of game time. I know when Almost is crumbing and when he isn't. Just because you missed it doesn't mean I didn't.

i'm not accepting this as an argument, unless you're going to find links or similar posts from previous games.

Tomorrow I will find you your crumbs.

Guess what if Transcend was the vig you'd still be running up Porkens for claiming Transcend vanilla. He'd claim Transcend scum of some kind as that's the only way he'd have a kill. So no Transcend was shot because Porkens wanted him dead because Transcend was a threat to Porkens.

i wasn't saying that transcend was the vig - i was saying that a lot of players have made comments at the vig similar to what a50 said, and that it doesn't really prove anything to me.

No...No one said something similar to what A50 said. Transcend begged the vig to shoot keychain. Making him not the vig. Porkens has a 2000s join date. Burden of proficiency falls there.

Oooh maybe it's Porkens and Key and just north is SK or derp town?

I don't see how Porkens shoots Transcend here at all with the dead townie FoS'ing transcend. That's bullshit. A push on Transcend was possible unless keychain was scum and it'd look weird coming from the partner.

serial killer or derp town, huh? what exactly have i done that warrants either one of these reads? what about my play is scummy or "derp"?

also, could you elaborate on the bolded part? completely honestly, it doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

As a vig you need to shoot someone who you feel cannot be lynched. Transcend was under suspicion by keychain and almost 50. In other words he's a bad shot as he could be lynched tomorrow. Hence why the shot is bullshit again because pushing transcend was possible unless Keychain is Porkens partner and she got scared and fear killed Transcend.

trasncend wasn't really under all that much suspicion from keychain, although i'll admit she could have changed her viewpoint come today - keep in mind though that there were people defending transcend from being lynched day one. it sounds to me like you're claiming the shot is fake because porkens thinks differently from you - consider that not ever vigilante goes through the same thought process as you. also, i sincerely doubt that keychain would be scared of transcend's pushing her. again, keychain was never really under any risk of being lynched and i seriously doubt she would have been.

If I claim cop in a newbie game and am not the cop. The real cop knows I am scum and tunnels me to death. Porkens shoots A50 here if vig. Period. There is only one town vig. And yes she was. It's fucking Transcend. From the join date she has to know Transcend.

[MathBlade]

Good night. We lynch pig.

[MathBlade]

viewtopic.php?p=8308054#p8308054

Tired as fuck from a side project but A50 commonly talks about his role. When he has it and pokes holes in others theories about it.

[MathBlade]

I ate transcend cause I thought he was crummy and irritatingly non contributor. He was vanilla. Still delicious.

Well, now we know that Trans was vanilla (if you are telling the truth).

I'm glad you are getting lynched today. I was really happy that you /inned but you have no reason not to believe I'm vig other than desperately wanting me lynched.

Actually, Math could have plenty of reasons to believe you are not Vig. However, with the hard claim, it's hard to believe that you aren't "a" killer at least.

That's the one thing I believe Porkens is telling the truth on. If not then he'd become a policy lynch when eventually we should have the larder revealed when Porkens flips.

[MathBlade]

No...No one said something similar to what A50 said. Transcend begged the vig to shoot keychain. Making him not the vig. Porkens has a 2000s join date. Burden of proficiency falls there.

let's take a look at what transcend said again:

not hammer*

also keychain gets vigged @vig

no exceptions

she is scum

i have her pinned down for sure

there's really nothing in there that i would call "begging". it's just a statement that keychain is getting vigged. i'd say if you're going to interpret either as a soft vig claim, this one makes more sense - while this one never even implies that transcend isn't the vig, a50's post implies that he isn't the vig.

A50's post implies that he wants a GOOD vig in the game. implying he knows who the vig is and they are bad. The only way this happens if A50 is the vig. He'd suspect otherwise not know. Transcend was communicating with A50 to kill keychain and keychain died.

If I claim cop in a newbie game and am not the cop. The real cop knows I am scum and tunnels me to death. Porkens shoots A50 here if vig. Period. There is only one town vig. And yes she was. It's fucking Transcend. From the join date she has to know Transcend.

that again relies both on a50's post being a vig claim and on porkens picking up on that. you're acting like transcend is some god that all the newbies and the scumsters fear and while i'm not trying to doubt transcend's skill, if i was in keychain's situation i certainly wouldn't be scared. transcend's case on her the entire day basically boiled down to quoting her rvs post. now, there's probably some depth there in transcend's argument that i'm not seeing or that he hadn't made clear yet, but he wasn't really one to make a real case on someone and to push their lynch through. also consider that it took until basically halfway through the day for

anyone else

to even hop on the keychain wagon, and nobody else that entire day did.

i have to disregard any argument that relies on keychain being afraid of transcend or almost lynching her tomorrow as evidence because it just doesn't make sense.

And yes I expect Porkens to pick up on something so blatantly obvious that I find it despite being half drunk when reading the thread. Scum picked it up to shoot A50. Like....obvious.

There's absolutely no way an SK or mafia shoots Keychain. I just don't buy it.

[MathBlade]

i'm not entirely sure i want a mathblade lynch. like, i'm pretty sure he's wrong on a lot of accounts but i haven't gotten a huge scum vibe from him. i'd much rather lynch godel here - not satisfied with his response.
VOTE: godel

Yeah no. Godel is not happening.

We can mislynch me or properly lynch Pork. Take your pick.

[MathBlade]

Anyone not voting Porkens ask yourself the following:

If what Porkens did was really a vig crumb and really that obvious why is Porkens alive?

Here's a hint..Porkens isn't the vig.

[MathBlade]

Anyone not voting Porkens ask yourself the following:

If what Porkens did was really a vig crumb and really that obvious why is Porkens alive?

Here's a hint..Porkens isn't the vig.

Is this a counter-claim?

Are you even reading? I said Almost is the vig.

It's not a counterclaim.

It is just raw confidence.

[MathBlade]

I am voting Porkens will respond to rest after work.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Porkens

I want dead piggy scum.

[MathBlade]

Anyone not voting Porkens ask yourself the following:

If what Porkens did was really a vig crumb and really that obvious why is Porkens alive?

Here's a hint..Porkens isn't the vig.

Is this a counter-claim?

Are you even reading? I said Almost is the vig.

It's not a counterclaim.

It is just raw confidence.

If you aren't going to counter-claim, then you have no real reason to dispute a claim.

By saying that Almost is the Vig, this either implies that you know something that we don't, or you're talking out of your ass, and I'm inclined to believe that it is the latter of the two.

VOTE: Math. That's L-1.

My ass is fine according to my doctor and I explained why I thought Almost was the vig. It is a typical Almost crumb and Almost and Transcend were working together on key. Lynching me won't change that belief.

The only thing that will change it is me seeing the dead thread and spoilers or a Porkens SK flip because if he is green I am calling bullshit on day one and Porkens needs to apologize for not shooting Almost50. A decade (or close to it) experience is enough to pick up on that shit.

[MathBlade]

Mathblade,

Give me your minority report as well.

?? Minority report is a movie? Do you mean something else?

[MathBlade]

I am gonna have sads if three townies died.

I really think that two or three townies died. Just need to look at key here and make a judgment call on that.

With three kills and limited activity afterwards implies killers active. North side gal leaving this out of the assessment makes me really scared about north.

VOTE: North

@havingfitz -- Activity question (post above is for context)

Mainly no PM mysterious/Not Mafia/your slot post flip.

There was a town lynch and three kills. A great scenario for mafia/SK.

Apathy would likely be Town and not scum.

[MathBlade]

If I'm still alive tomorrow which i doubt because i reckon both sk and mafia will kill me let's double team Keychain

With Transcend and Almost50 both suspecting Key I'm pretty damn certain Key was scum.

@havingfitz

Because Almost50 and Transcend have a townie intelligence quotient bigger than mine. Like I start scumreading them if they scumread too much Town. The fact two really good players agree on Keychain is something noteworthy.

And I am voting Porkens. If a VC doesn't show it I don't mind revoting or poking the mod.

[MathBlade]

You try and refute the fact that you scumread (or cannibalread ) the players that questioned your thought process, then follow it up by doing exactly that.

You know what's wrong with this? It's the fact that id if it is

true

then I'm definitely

not a cannibal

. And you know what that means? It means I'm

definitely not scum

. You know why? Because

all scum are cannibals

, so I cannot be a non-cannibal and still be scum at the same time.

But I feel like I've done a good job exposing all scumsters in one go through my behaviour, so I don't mind eating rope tofay in order to get the VIG IN PARTICULAR to follow my reads.

Irrelevant:

@Comm: Did you have to be the mod in this game? We seem to need a

good vig

in the block, my friend.

Here Almost50 claims vig.

In the case Porkens is the vig and Transcend was a vanilla kill then the SK has to shoot Almost 50 because they'd be mafia.

However I highly doubt that because if Porkens was the vig Porkens shoots Almost50 here without a doubt.

We need a good vig in this game according to Almost50. Here Almost50 laments there isn't a good vig and wants CommKnight to be the vig as CommKnight knows who to kill. Almost50 is saying he doesn't have that information making him a bag vig. Hence Almost50 is the Town vig.

[MathBlade]

@northsidegal: You keep spewing jusnk all over, again and again.

1- First you do not understand but you claim it doesn't make sense. Then you say you managed to understand but it still doesn't make sense. Well, perhaps you need to check on your own definition of sense and/or readjust.

2- The Vig would not be OK getting lynched, but they would not be going after the one who suggested getting rid of all cannibals either. The one more likely to do so is the one who is most threatened by the concept, which I perceive to be the one who is working all alone.

3- Not all cannibals are scum, I agree. However ALL BLOODY SCUM ARE CANNIBALS. Now if you don't understand what I'm saying still you need not respond to me at all. Just vote me or ignore me. I'm not here to babysit you. If you do have a brain I suggest you use it.

4- Obviously I don't have evidence to your win con as I didn't get your role PM. Asking me to provide evidence to your win con being that of the SK is one of the silliest defences that could ever be made against the accusation. Reread point #2 in this response for more illustration (which will probably still make no sense to you).

In short, you need to push for my lynch today as hard as you can. If not; you had better kill me tonight (I initially typed "eat me" but realized it could be mistaken for an insult under the circumstances). If I'm still alive tomorrow I'm likely to keep pushing you, or -at the vfery least- grace you with more stuff that just "doesn't make sense at all" whether you understand them or not.

In the mean time...

VOTE: Transcend

for now.

Almost50 has northgal pegged as SK which I completely agree with and Almost50's ISO is littered with what the vig would be doing lololol.

So mafia killed Transcend so Porkens. Northgal is SK

Everyone else is Town. Keychain is dead mafia.

You're welcome.

[MathBlade]

Clearly you're not getting it or you're just not Town if you say it is circular so I will break it down premise by premise.

Premise 1: According to the setup there is a Town vig.
Premise 2: Almost50 says we need a good vig in the [town] block.
Premise 3: Notice the italics in the statement above. The italics are for emphasis.
Premise 4: At this point Almost is calling the vig bad in comparison to CommKnight who knows everything about the setup including who the scum are.

Premise 1-4 directly are based off what is written there. If you don't get premise 1-4 there is no way you're just gonna get it and are just going to have to accept it.

Premise 5 Almost50 was trying to build a town block. Reason: The block statement.
Premise 6 Almost50's block would include the vig.
Premise 7 based on sentence structure the block already had a bad vig.
Premise 8 the only way the block has a bad Town vig is if it is Almost50.

Rebuttal to counter : Almost50 offered to be lynched: Wifom

[MathBlade]

@northsidegal: You keep spewing jusnk all over, again and again.

1- First you do not understand but you claim it doesn't make sense. Then you say you managed to understand but it still doesn't make sense. Well, perhaps you need to check on your own definition of sense and/or readjust.

2- The Vig would not be OK getting lynched, but they would not be going after the one who suggested getting rid of all cannibals either. The one more likely to do so is the one who is most threatened by the concept, which I perceive to be the one who is working all alone.

3- Not all cannibals are scum, I agree. However ALL BLOODY SCUM ARE CANNIBALS. Now if you don't understand what I'm saying still you need not respond to me at all. Just vote me or ignore me. I'm not here to babysit you. If you do have a brain I suggest you use it.

4- Obviously I don't have evidence to your win con as I didn't get your role PM. Asking me to provide evidence to your win con being that of the SK is one of the silliest defences that could ever be made against the accusation. Reread point #2 in this response for more illustration (which will probably still make no sense to you).

In short, you need to push for my lynch today as hard as you can. If not; you had better kill me tonight (I initially typed "eat me" but realized it could be mistaken for an insult under the circumstances). If I'm still alive tomorrow I'm likely to keep pushing you, or -at the vfery least- grace you with more stuff that just "doesn't make sense at all" whether you understand them or not.

In the mean time...

VOTE: Transcend

for now.

Almost50 has northgal pegged as SK which I completely agree with and Almost50's ISO is littered with what the vig would be doing lololol.

So mafia killed Transcend so Porkens. Northgal is SK

Everyone else is Town. Keychain is dead mafia.

You're welcome.

i already said this before to a50 but the thing is i already know that i'm not the serial killer and so i already know that you're wrong on that account - given that i know you're wrong on one of the conclusions you've gathered from your starting point i myself can conclude that you're most likely wrong elsewhere. thus, i'm a bit more confident in my godel analysis.

If I'm still alive tomorrow which i doubt because i reckon both sk and mafia will kill me let's double team Keychain

With Transcend and Almost50 both suspecting Key I'm pretty damn certain Key was scum.

@havingfitz

Because Almost50 and Transcend have a townie intelligence quotient bigger than mine. Like I start scumreading them if they scumread too much Town. The fact two really good players agree on Keychain is something noteworthy.

And I am voting Porkens. If a VC doesn't show it I don't mind revoting or poking the mod.

good players can make mistakes - is this all you have to go on for keychain being scum?

Of course you as the SK would say you aren't the SK.

When the two players who I consider ultimately good end up dead post day one and they agree on Keychain scum the only thing that would change my mind is a mod flip.

[MathBlade]

Premise 5: You're seriously arguing Almost50 wanted to form a "good block" with scum and Town in it? Really? Premise that town block is what Almost referred to stands.

Premise 7: Yes. It does. It is implied CommKnight is a good vig. Cannot have good without bad.
Hence Almost50 is a bad vig.

Premise 8 follows from premise 7.

[MathBlade]

Math assume I'm actually cig, trans was town, get in that headspace, and make a reads list

I have a hard time assuming something so completely illogical as it requires scum to kill someone they could easily lynch.

So for case and point Keychain would have had to been onto the SK or mafia.
This would make Almost50 the other kill.

Oh which I literally cannot see a reason for it. Like I can't see scum playing that suboptimally.

[MathBlade]

... I don't understand why that wasn't hammer?

Vote Count 1.5

[0]

Almost50

[0]

Not_Mafia

[1]

Assemblerotws

Not_Mafia,
[0]

sheepsaysmeep

[2]

Keychain

Transcend, Almost50,
[1]

Transcend

PMysterious,
[1]

northsidegal

sheepsaysmeep,
[0]

PMysterious

[5]

UC Voyager

Assemblerotws, Elmo TeH AzN, northsidegal, Gödel, Porkens,
[1]

Gödel

Keychain,
[0]

Elmo TeH AzN

[1]

Porkens

UC Voyager,

Note Voting:

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Day Ends:

(expired on 2017-11-07 15:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Elmo & Sheep have requested replacement. Should have one filled by tonight and the other filled within 24 hours. (Why is it always before work with this stuff?)

town game

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=73542&p=9693424#p9693424

I was Non consecutive jail keeper
I was forced to claim day one...and was killed night one

Being forced to claim day one, that implies that you were acting scummy in that game, and I don't need to read in order to figure that one out. I remember being in your shoes, but that's mostly because I overreacted in every case this occurs in. Since Trans doesn't seem like the likely lynch today and UC was on my list of scummy people, its best to get the most scummy player out of the way.

VOTE: UC Voyager That should be L-1.

VOTE: uc voy

Greens but who cares

Not i

Assemblerotws, Elmo TeH AzN, northsidegal, Gödel, Porkens, PMysterious and Transcend makes 7 to lynch, and I didn't see any unvotes. Where am I miscounting? Also welcome Fitz!

Assuming it's not twilight:

VOTE: Transcend

Since nobody's going to lynch Goedel today are they

Because i tried to lol hammer and they think it's a scum gesture

Yeah.
It seemed very much like a combination of hammering a townie and yet in the followup still trying to reap the towncred for a correct read for the next day like in 491. Trying to avoid blame. Win-win situation for scum, harder to understand from town. PM was at least voting a scumread. I think I could also vote A50 for avoiding commenting on the whole thing.

Lynch assembler

Oh hey you're in this game still trying to lynch easy targets huh


PEdit: wow

jesus

Either that or Godel would be scum.

But like I am townreading Godel pretty hard.

Like I really just don't see how you aren't scum Porkens.

It requires scum to just be terrible.

[MathBlade]

Northsidegal.

I don't see myself townreading northsidegal

[MathBlade]

fair enough.

So if the living scum are:
Gödel
NSG

and who else?
Also, what would the targets be in this world where I'm vig with Transcend in my belly.

Northsidegal kills Keychain as SK.

Godel+Keychain team kill Almost50.

But again I really don't believe you are a vig.

[MathBlade]

Can you flesh out your keychain scumread for me? I don't see scum there.

Almost50 and Transcend scumread Keychain.

Transcend is dead.

[MathBlade]

I killed Transcend in this universe. without that bit, why the scumread on key?

If you killed Transcend and say Transcend is town. Transcend is a good player.
If you take out the vig argument I still townread Almost50. Almost50 is a good player.
Therefore Keychain is almost certainly scum.

[MathBlade]

I regret eating transcend.

You can do this as either alignment?

What does this post add?

[MathBlade]

I regret eating transcend.

You can do this as either alignment?

What does this post add?

Trying to get sympathy so he will continue to be town read by most players.

Either alignment does that.

Why are you answering a question meant for Porkens?

[MathBlade]

If Porkens is town you're scum.

If you're Town Porkens is scum.

Post translated.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Godel

A Porkens lynch isn't happening today likely anyway much as I wish it would.

[MathBlade]

Ewww

That is a vote with northsidegal.

Northsidegal convince me you're Town or opposite alignment of Godel like how I read you as SK.

[MathBlade]

I am apologizing to transcend by way of posting those quips.

I wish I could talk to him now but I can't.

Math, didn't you say before that I wouldn't eat transcend if I were scrum?

Quite possibly. Not with my votes ATM. However your question was assuming you doing something that doesn't make sense so you can't compare it against the world that does.

[MathBlade]

I am apologizing to transcend by way of posting those quips.

I wish I could talk to him now but I can't.

Math, didn't you say before that I wouldn't eat transcend if I were scrum?

Quite possibly. Not with my notes ATM. However your question was assuming you doing something that doesn't make sense so you can't compare it against the world that does.

[MathBlade]

Cus I am not sure porkens really is the big and I want to give my 2 cents before he spins it into something where he comes across as a pro town

when did you start believing that porkens wasn't the vig? earlier it appeared like you did, so what changed? also, if you think porkens is lying, why isn't your vote on him?

Ewww

That is a vote with northsidegal.

Northsidegal convince me you're Town or opposite alignment of Godel like how I read you as SK.

trying to point to the scumhunting i've done or everything pro-town in my iso is pointless because of the predictable response that "the serial killer wants to know who scum are too". therefore, the only thing i can really say in my defense is that i never would have made any of the kills that happened night one if i were the serial killer. keychain townread me, so there was absolutely no reason to get rid of her from my point of view. transcend and a50 both seemed to scumread me but i really was not concerned with their ability to push a lynch through on me. also, i'm not usually this petty but a50 said that he wanted to get shot tonight because i was annoying him so much, so i probably wouldn't have shot him.

math, assume for a moment that godel flips serial killer here. what are your updated reads and what's your new analysis of how the night went down?

now assume further that godel flips sk and keychain flips town from his larder - how does that change things?

I will consider that if it happens.

I find that so remote I will adjust if it does.

[MathBlade]

Cus I am not sure porkens really is the big and I want to give my 2 cents before he spins it into something where he comes across as a pro town

when did you start believing that porkens wasn't the vig? earlier it appeared like you did, so what changed? also, if you think porkens is lying, why isn't your vote on him?

Ewww

That is a vote with northsidegal.

Northsidegal convince me you're Town or opposite alignment of Godel like how I read you as SK.

trying to point to the scumhunting i've done or everything pro-town in my iso is pointless because of the predictable response that "the serial killer wants to know who scum are too". therefore, the only thing i can really say in my defense is that i never would have made any of the kills that happened night one if i were the serial killer. keychain townread me, so there was absolutely no reason to get rid of her from my point of view. transcend and a50 both seemed to scumread me but i really was not concerned with their ability to push a lynch through on me. also, i'm not usually this petty but a50 said that he wanted to get shot tonight because i was annoying him so much, so i probably wouldn't have shot him.

math, assume for a moment that godel flips serial killer here. what are your updated reads and what's your new analysis of how the night went down?

now assume further that godel flips sk and keychain flips town from his larder - how does that change things?

I will consider that if it happens.

I find that so remote I will adjust if it does.

why are you so sure you'll still be alive to talk?

I am not. However if scum kill someone after a flip who is clueless and the rest of town remains go us? I will either have time to reevaluate given facts or I will be dead. Scum don't tend to kill clueless people.

[MathBlade]

Pmysterious posts seemed forced and false. Godel kinda seems mislynchy but not overly so. It's hard for me to read math because he's so full tilt against me. I really hate all the lurking.

They please.

[MathBlade]

Pmysterious posts seemed forced and false. Godel kinda seems mislynchy but not overly so. It's hard for me to read math because he's so full tilt against me. I really hate all the lurking.

They please.

Care to explain what this means?

My pronoun is they. Not he or she.

I am in the middle of transitioning and don't wish to see my old gender yet my real one reminds me how I can't pass. So I ask people to use they pronouns.

[MathBlade]

Pmysterious posts seemed forced and false. Godel kinda seems mislynchy but not overly so. It's hard for me to read math because he's so full tilt against me. I really hate all the lurking.

how about we lynch pm or a lurker instead of me?

Why would we do this?

This reeks of self survival.

[MathBlade]

Porkins...as scum try to get non-scum lynched and avoid the same, if I look hard enough I can probably find scum motivation in everyone in the game.

I do not subscribe to you or Math HAVING to be scum just because they have a theory that opposes your claim. I'm not town reading them but there are probably 2 or 3 others I would prefer to see gone before Math barring something changing (flip/info/etc).

Why Assembler over not mafia? Gut? Assembler has a wagon? Nothing terribly concrete...just decided after the last few posts of Goedel's that I was less interested in seeing him lynched than I was when I voted him. Not saying I'm tr'ing Goedel...just wanting to hold off and if we are both still here tomorrow...see where my read on him stands.

My thoughts on what Goedel has said. Without diving into an ISO of him...I get the sense he is awkward and inexperienced and not completely sure what he is doing and while that might result in some of the things he is saying/doing coming across as suspect...I'm starting to get the feel he is trying to find scum. So maybe he's the sk? idk. Hence the preference to wait.

Uhmmmm

Mafia are trying to find the SK
SK are trying to find Mafia
Town are trying to find both

Why exactly is "Yeah this guy could be scum but let's not lynch him" a valid option?

Maybe Godel and Havingfitz and northsidegal SK and just Porkens is terribad and Almost/Transcend had an off game

But that's like very unlikely

[MathBlade]

Maybe Godel and Havingfitz and northsidegal SK and just Porkens is terribad and Almost/Transcend had an off game

don't you think you move into dangerous territory, rationally speaking, when you declare another player "terribad" if their assessment of something and your assessment don't match up? i guess what i'm really asking is - why are you so absolutely confident that you're correct? town are in even more of low-information state here than in typical games. even more, some of your conclusions come from what seem to me to be weak logical connections, ie a50 and transcend are good players, they thought keychain was scum and thus keychain was scum.

i'm trying to determine here if there's something alignment-relevant about all of this but i'm having a hard time coming up with anything.

It's much more than just a rational assessment though.

I have had terribad games before.

If Porkens is the vig and killed Transcend that was a terrible shot.
Furthermore the Keychain kill was bad.

Like I am not judging the player I am judging the play itself.

Like I have more experience than most in flipless games. Mainly people need to realize what they are doing and learn from it.

[MathBlade]

By pointing out what is bad and how they justify it gives me an idea of where they are and let's me read how they are approaching the game.

For example a competent SK defends someone they believe to be the vig. They also defend who they believe to be scum. A competent SK needs as many bodies to hit the floor as possible while still hunting.

A competent mafia attempts to lynch the SK after the first death as to keep the amount of deaths exactly where they need it.

However the pushes from the majority of players are not combining in such a pattern where that is evident.

It's the same reason Infinity was scum in the last game played. Scum have a subconscious desire to be off of the wagons that have Town on them to look better later. Anyone defending that is likely scum hence the LQ push compromise on infinity,

In this game we want people off the UCV wagon.

[MathBlade]

Pedit will get to that in a moment.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 1.6

[0]

Almost50

[0]

Not_Mafia

[1]

Assemblerotws

Not_Mafia,
[0]

havingfitz

[1]

Keychain

Almost50,
[0]

Transcend

[1]

northsidegal

havingfitz,
[0]

PMysterious

[7]

UC Voyager

Assemblerotws, Elmo TeH AzN, northsidegal, Gödel, Porkens, PMysterious, Transcend,

<---- LYNCH

[1]

Gödel

Keychain,
[0]

Elmo TeH AzN

[1]

Porkens

UC Voyager,

Note Voting:

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Day Ends:

(expired on 2017-11-07 15:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Still looking for a replacement for Elmo (I was trying to give some extra time to find one before locking thread). Night 1 will not end until I find a replacement. Flip and official night start will come momentarily.

The people off the wagon were Keychain, northsidegal, Havingfitz, not Mafia and Almost50.

We know there were no reciprocal shots.

If Keychain killed anyone it had to be Almost50 or Transcend. If Keychain killed Transcend Porkens is scum. So from the common view (Porkens vig which I don't believe) then the only person Keychain could kill is almost50.

Similarly the only person A50 could shoot without Porkens being scum is Keychain.

One of them has to have not shot anyone else we'd be looking at flips.

Therefore Keychain is town not vig, Town who shot Almost50, or mafia who shot Almost50 or mafia partner did a kill.

Repeat for Almost50 swapping word with Keychain.

Now let's break down their ISOs.

[MathBlade]

Keychain's last dying wish was for a Godel lynch and votes Transcend.

This strongly implies who to fucking nightkill. If it was already hammer then why the hell would Keychain vote Transcend and not Godel?

Both are vanity and he doesn't talk a lot about the UCV wagon.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 1.6

[0]

Almost50

[0]

Not_Mafia

[1]

Assemblerotws

Not_Mafia,
[0]

havingfitz

[1]

Keychain

Almost50,
[0]

Transcend

[1]

northsidegal

havingfitz,
[0]

PMysterious

[7]

UC Voyager

Assemblerotws, Elmo TeH AzN, northsidegal, Gödel, Porkens, PMysterious, Transcend,

<---- LYNCH

[1]

Gödel

Keychain,
[0]

Elmo TeH AzN

[1]

Porkens

UC Voyager,

Note Voting:

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Day Ends:

(expired on 2017-11-07 15:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Still looking for a replacement for Elmo (I was trying to give some extra time to find one before locking thread). Night 1 will not end until I find a replacement. Flip and official night start will come momentarily.

Low and behold You were fuck my votes.

Still think you're scum though.

[MathBlade]

THERE IS 10 HOURS LEFT IN THE DAY I REFUSE TO HAVE THIS DAY END IN A NO LYNCH

VOTE: UC Voyager

greens but we need a flip

This was hammer and then Not Mafia voted after that.

I don't see scum intentionally clamoring to be on a mislynch wagon by the end of the day.

That attracts too much attention.

So not Mafia is town.

[MathBlade]

I haven't really posted in this game since replacing in. I read D1 but didn't take any notes. OTTOMH I recall this general sentiment towards players:

UCV - null
Keychain - Town
A50 - slight sus
Transcend - slight sus
______________________
Godel sus
Porkens sus
Not_Mafia slight sus
NSG - slight town lean
Everyone else TBD


D2 catchup...

@NSG...why is it so hard to accept a Transcend and A50 nk? As they could be either alignment surely there is a logical scenario where either the vig or scum/sk would want them eliminated.

Mod...your last comment in the set up says both goons have seperate larders and if one dies...their larder is revealed to town/other Cannibal. Can you confirm that if a Mafia Goon is killed by the sk or Vig...that their larder is OR isn't revealed to town?

@Math...what "limited activity" are you referring to as a reason to implicate NSG? Standard posting in the game since D2 began? <this is discussed further in subsequent posts but I still think pre/post flip activity is NAI.

@Math...Hth does Transcend and A50 suspecting Key make Key scum? And if you are so confident in A50 being the vig...why aren't you voting Porkens at this point in the game?

@Math...hth is that a vig claim by A50?

@Godel...Porkens.

@Assembler...why are one of Porkens or Math scum? Porkens could be telling the truth (which I am inclined to believe) and Math could still be town who is getting it wrong...wrong like most of the people were who voted UCV D1.

@Math...why is Godel "not happening?"

Caught up. The only two people I would not willing to lynch today (atm) are NSG and Porkens.

Of the others from most to least interested I'd vote:

Math/Godel (tossup)
Assembler
PMysterious/Not Mafia (tossup)

I will do some ISOs to see if I can get any of the bottom three off my sus/tbd list.

Math's at L-2 by my count so in the interest of extending the day a bit I'll...

VOTE: Godel

This post here catching up is weird from him.

He is most interested in me/Godel and get votes Godel out of interest in extending the day.

This is more indicative of scum not wanting to be on a mislynch wagon before posting as that would look horrible.

If he is equally interested in both of us he should vote the one closer to lynch. So his read wall is a lie.

Furthermore he doesn't spend any time trying to prove his points it is more to get me talking and get on my good side.

[MathBlade]

Btw, I do believe UCV was hammered.. TWICE, so no need for me to switch my vote. Also NL is not an option so if the DL hits UCV is still the lynch.

My vote is on keychain to make a statement now. This is SCUM for sure.

This is how you do a statement vote and why Keychain's protest vote is weird.

What I find more likely is Mafia was trying to signal to SK who they were killing.

Almost 50 shot Keychain
Porkens killed Transcend and is scum with Keychain
And SK shot Almost50

In the case Porkens is Town who shot Transcend (like again WHY??? He was one of the active players)
Godel is scum, north is scum, having Fitz prob scum.

[MathBlade]

The people off the wagon were Keychain, northsidegal, Havingfitz, not Mafia and Almost50.

We know there were no reciprocal shots.

If Keychain killed anyone it had to be Almost50 or Transcend. If Keychain killed Transcend Porkens is scum. So from the common view (Porkens vig which I don't believe) then the only person Keychain could kill is almost50.

Similarly the only person A50 could shoot without Porkens being scum is Keychain.

One of them has to have not shot anyone else we'd be looking at flips.

Therefore Keychain is town not vig, Town who shot Almost50, or mafia who shot Almost50 or mafia partner did a kill.

Repeat for Almost50 swapping word with Keychain.

Now let's break down their ISOs.

my problem with this analysis is that you start from the perspective of both keychain being scum

and

a50 being the vig, and then analyze the game from that viewpoint, but i'm not starting from that same perspective and so this analysis is basically useless to me. like, if you want me to put any stock into what you're saying i need a better reason for why keychain was scum than what you've provided. at the very least it seems you assume both keychain and a50 were killing roles, but i see no reason to believe why either of them were.

Keychain's last dying wish was for a Godel lynch and votes Transcend.

This strongly implies who to fucking nightkill. If it was already hammer then why the hell would Keychain vote Transcend and not Godel?

you believe keychain is scum, so are you saying she crumbed who she was going to nightkill? how does that make sense?

also, let's look at keychain's exact quote:

Assuming it's not twilight:

VOTE: Transcend

Since nobody's going to lynch Goedel today are they

for one, it was already hammer but the mod had posted without ending the day so we all thought that the day was still going. for two, she explicitly says that she's voting transcend because it seems like she can't get a godel wagon through.

even more, what are you concluding from that? it seems to me like you're implying that keychain crumbed or otherwise indicated who she was going to kill during the day, but i don't see any reason why she would do that.

Not starting from the most likely scenario is advantageous to you.

I am not going down the rabbit hole of Almost50 is vig again.

He is.

You just say you don't see it.

So I will work with one hand tied behind my back work with the bullshit assumption Porkens is the vig and we lynch Godel.

Because Porkens is not the vig. If he is he knows how to shoot better.

[MathBlade]

What I find more likely is Mafia was trying to signal to SK who they were killing.

why would scum do this?

No crossfire.

Mafia need dead bodies just as much as the SK.

[MathBlade]

Btw, I do believe UCV was hammered.. TWICE, so no need for me to switch my vote. Also NL is not an option so if the DL hits UCV is still the lynch.

My vote is on keychain to make a statement now. This is SCUM for sure.

This is how you do a statement vote and why Keychain's protest vote is weird.

What I find more likely is Mafia was trying to signal to SK who they were killing.

Almost 50 shot Keychain
Porkens killed Transcend and is scum with Keychain
And SK shot Almost50

In the case Porkens is Town who shot Transcend (like again WHY??? He was one of the active players)
Godel is scum, north is scum, having Fitz prob scum.

Why I find interesting is the part in the bold. If this theory is still in the water, then I want to ask this.

The Scum only have 2 members, so why would Keychain signal to the SK who the Mafia was killing in the first place?

Keep in mind that there are the following that could possibly be alive, a Dietician, a Vigilante, a Roleblocker, and a Serial Killer (2 of which could kill Keychain outright, one that could make Day 2 the easiest day ever when it comes to voting, and one that could stop the Scum kill outright). It's a sacrifice that would turn Keychain's partner into a second SK on his own.

(On a different note, I apologize for my absence, I've been dealing with allergies over the past few days, so I was mostly resting, and doing things other than actual brain functions.)

For the bodies.

We know SK is alive.
We all suspect at least one mafia alive.
The majority of us (imho incorrectly) believe Porkens is the vig.

If we lynch and three more bodies hit the floor

Then that becomes 4 alive. A damn near impossible game to win because then it involves needing some crossfire help. Scum have to work together D1 swap D2 and wreck D3.

[MathBlade]

MathBlade I have read your post like 3 times now, and maybe it is just because it is before 8 AM on Saturday, but you are only scum reading me under the assumption that porkens is the vig?

I scumread you. Like your recent post was pretty bad.

NSG and you one of you is probably the SK.

[MathBlade]

We know SK is alive.

How? Hypothetically the nks could have been a scum, the sk and the vig. I'm sure that's not the csse but how can you know/assume the sk is alive?

SK by setup has one shot night proof.

So three deaths means the SK is alive.

[MathBlade]

I don't think I'm compulsive.

While you aren't it unfortunately is a damned if you do damned if you don't if you are the vig.

If you don't and we mislynch today then tomorrow this is likely flipless.

If you do and we mislynch today and fire wrong we have a shit show in Lylo.

Mainly we have to lynch right and since y'all won't lynch Porkens I have to work on my top scumreads Godel and NSG.

[MathBlade]

Damn Porkens just sucked this game and is the vig and Godel is actually scum.

Holy fuck.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Gödel
L-1. Wait for hammer until Gödel has made the post he wants to.
Gödel has been posting terribly for some time. He keeps throwing shade at me instead of defending himself, he deliberately ignores how Porkens crumbed vig from the moment he replaced in, and his reasoning in general is incredibly sketchy.

The first half of this is horrible.

Town shouldn't be focused on defending itself instead pointing out and catching scum.

[MathBlade]

So if Godel is town (doubtful) only the second of that post applies.

[MathBlade]

SK by setup has one shot night proof.

D'oh. Correct.

Hi probTown.

Got a read wall?

[MathBlade]

Prod Dodge.

Cooked four course meal and worked a full shift. Almost midnight no desire to read walls of text.

[MathBlade]

Fyi if Godel flips Town going to be looking at Porkens hard.

[MathBlade]

I'm probably going to eat jigglypuff tonight.

Whoever is jigglypuff is the SK.

Will be on late tonight.

[MathBlade]

Whst is your plan PM? Sre you waiting for more info before voting? Sny comments on the current wagons?

I've been waiting for more info before we go into the next phase. However, we are running out of time before Godel hammers himself anyway, so I'm inclined now to believe that he thinks he's lost, so he could be SK or Mafia (while aware that his partner is dead). At this point, I feel like its best just to end it and move forward.

On the topic of the current wagons, assembler makes sense as he's been inactive and hasn't really been talking much. The Godel wagon, however, I'm not so sure about, but since he's going to hammer himself anyway, its best just to finish this before it drags on.

VOTE: Godel, and that's the hammer.

Hi I think you are jigglypuff.

VOTE: PMsyterious

Explain how you are alive.

[MathBlade]

you guys realize that there's a chance lynching pm still loses us the game, even if he is the serial killer, right?

i'd seriously recommend unvoting.

No. There isn't.

If Porkens isn't the vig (doubtful as he seemed to take both the mafia shot and the SK shot or two people shot the SK and porkens called someone other than PM jigglypuff which I doubt) >> Almost 50 was. In any world, the vig is dead.

So therefore if PM is the SK then there will be one kill overnight.
6 alive >> 5 alive post SK lynch >> 4 alive with 1-2 mafia.

If two mafia are alive at this point I think we just lose no matter what.

6 alive >> lynch a mafia >> two kills >> 3 alive (1 town one mafia one SK)

So I don't see any world other than lynching PM here.

[MathBlade]

I do not think scum or sk fakeclaim Vig...so I believe Porken's claim. Not sure why he did it but I believe him.

He had to know he was going to be nk'd after claiming so I do not think he veers from his stated target.

I think PM being alive = he's the sk.

The question is...were either A50 or Keychain scum? If not...and assuming PM is sk...then the only thing that could save town would be a lucky roleblock.

I think our best bet is to lynch PM. If he happens to not flip sk, then we would need to pin our hopes on one of the scum being dead already and/or roleblocker intervention. At least if PM IS the dietician we get a cleared player in NSG.

That said...wtf would you investigate your top townread last night PM? That makes no fcuking sense.

Consider my vote on PM. With holding for discussion.

Also...I'm v/LA until Monday.

With Porkens eating both the mafia and the SK kill, Porkens was almost certainly the vig as I said before. He said who he was shooting. PM SK. done. Suggesting any other lynch today is ridiculous.

Now with that out of the way, what are everyone's mafia read(s)?

[MathBlade]

I do not think scum or sk fakeclaim Vig...so I believe Porken's claim. Not sure why he did it but I believe him.

He had to know he was going to be nk'd after claiming so I do not think he veers from his stated target.

I think PM being alive = he's the sk.

The question is...were either A50 or Keychain scum? If not...and assuming PM is sk...then the only thing that could save town would be a lucky roleblock.

I think our best bet is to lynch PM. If he happens to not flip sk, then we would need to pin our hopes on one of the scum being dead already and/or roleblocker intervention. At least if PM IS the dietician we get a cleared player in NSG.

That said...wtf would you investigate your top townread last night PM? That makes no fcuking sense.

Consider my vote on PM. With holding for discussion.

Also...I'm v/LA until Monday.

With Porkens eating both the mafia and the SK kill, Porkens was almost certainly the vig as I said before. He said who he was shooting. PM SK. done. Suggesting any other lynch today is ridiculous.

Now with that out of the way, what are everyone's mafia read(s)?

There is no guarantee Porkens ate two kills. Why would you completely dismiss mafia getting roleblocked? Do you know if the roleblocker is dead?

And it seems funny you saying Porkens was "almost certainly vig as [you] said before"...considering you were trying your best to convince everyone otherwise yesterday until your incredulous end of day post where you came to the (wrong) realization Goedel was scum.

Since you were quoting me when you said this...where do I suggest any other lynch than PM?

I'm assuming since everyone has posted today that either PM is actually the dietician (which I doubt since they are still alive) or they amazingly conveniently killed the dietician N1.

Math...why did you ask for the mafia reads of others without providing your own? My only scum read at the moment is you.

Hopefully there are not 2 mafia still alive. If so I think Mathblade's breakdown of how PM is the best option sums it up nicely. If anyone can think of a way for town to win in the circumstance of 2 scum and 1 sk still being alive...I'd love to hear it. Since PM isn't cooperating that avenue doesn't seem to be available.

I am dismissing the roleblocker because of two reasons:

Mafia, SK, and vig all alive.

This means three shots.

In the case of a roleblocker (of whom I suspect I know who it is and can put the pieces together from the person who I hard townread as not scum) then the SK still ate a kill. The mafia needed the vig gone. Confirmed Town and with a vig shot. Mafia and SK shot there.

As explained before thank you SK but you're eating rope.

[MathBlade]

Who is assembler's partner?

You.

[MathBlade]

So that means Keychain was town and both scum are still alive.

I think Mathblade is scum...

I do not see a scenario where going in to N3 with both scum, after lynching SK PM, is more beneficial to town than trying to lynch on of the two goons (ex. MB) and going in to N3 3/1/1.

That leaves scum the decision of trying to kill PM (who most likely has lost his NK immunity) or passing on him for a townie.

And what we would want/trust PM to do.

And whether the RB is still in play and the impact they might have.

Thoughts?

Scum won't kill PM if left alive. It is antiwin con to do so.

Right now Town barely has the majority. If we lynch mafia, then two deaths at night, mafia doesn't kill SK to keep the bodies falling we're almost certainly losing two Town at that point.

We lynch Pm.

[MathBlade]

PM Fitz assemblr boom done:

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 3.0

[0]

Not_Mafia

[0]

Assemblerotws

[0]

havingfitz

[0]

northsidegal

[0]

PMysterious

[0]

MathBlade

Note Voting: Not_Mafia, Assemblerotws, havingfitz, northsidegal, PMysterious, MathBlade,

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Day Ends:

(expired on 2017-12-09 15:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Shit we can't.

Fml.

Goddamn it.

VOTE: Assemblr

PM shooting anyone other than Fitz is a scum claim.

[MathBlade]

And then we lynch you as it would be 1 and 1 at that point.

[MathBlade]

PM Fitz assemblr boom done:

Wrong. I'm the roleblocker.

I blocked Goedel N1 and you (MB) N2.

You're scum

Wrong I am Town and Not Mafia already crumbed assembler scum. Try harder.

[MathBlade]

Alright, seeing as there is very little choice in the matter, I am indeed the SK. I killed Almost50 on Night 1, and he was the Dietician. On Night 2, I killed Porkens, and he was the Vigilante, and Trans was VT. I do not know if Keychain was Mafia or not, so if you guys actually want a chance of winning, lynching me will not be the best of options. I'm willing to work with you guys to find Mafia, just lead the way.

This is also wrong btw.

Not Mafia crumbed dietician.

So not Mafia is scum or the dietician.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: assembler

Fyi if Godel flips Town going to be looking at Porkens hard.

Look at assembler because he's scum

Lynch assembler to save mod the trouble

Still waiting for scumsembler to be lynched

assembler is still scum

VOTE: assembler

I really need glips

[MathBlade]

http://www.glipproducts.com

[MathBlade]

So you're telling me you fake a typo twice for a dieticians product uselessly tunnel a not posting placer and you're not the dietician?

[MathBlade]

After this game I seriously give up.

Y'all need math's how to crumb school.

[MathBlade]

SK by setup has one shot night proof.

D'oh. Correct.

Hi probTown.

Got a read wall?

amTown
NSG
Porkens
Not_Mafia
Math
Goedel/PM/Assembler

Porkens could be sk or scum that hit vig and stole role but doubtful as he'll probably be sorted tonight if legit.

Really think 2 scum and sk are in bottom 4 listed. Unless fingers crossed one of the nks hit scum.

Wrong FYI Fitz isn't the roleblocker or he'd have blocked assemblr or PM.

[MathBlade]

...

This is bullshit.

I am Town Fitz is scum.

We should lynch claimed scum today.

This isn't hard.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: PM

pM is clearly scumsiding.

Lynching me means we lose.

[MathBlade]

The Mafia still have 2 members remaining, but the kill had to have been roleblocked, so I'm with Fitz on thinking Math is scum in this scenario. The other member could be Assemble or NotMafia, so they're in my shoot pool (unless there is a disagreement).

As for trust, I promise to do anything that any of the Town say in agreement. I essentially lost this game, so anything I can do to make the game winnable for you guys will be a slight win for me. There's nothing left for me to lose.

This is scum siding.

If I die you shoot Fitz. If Fitz is the roleblocker he blocks you. Done.

[MathBlade]

Like mafia 101
Never trust a fucking guilty in lylo because it is fucking fake.

[MathBlade]

We should lynch claimed scum today.

This isn't hard.

i know that you understand that if the game is 3/2/1 and we lynch pm, town loses. i

know

you understand that.

anyone who votes pm right now is scumclaiming.

If the game is 3/2/1 we lynch mafia we lose.

Soooo your point? If we lynch anyone we lose if we lynch scum we lose we just lose.

[MathBlade]

So since 3/2/1 is were fucked no matter what I am picking the option where we have a chance.

[MathBlade]

If the game is 3/2/1 we lynch mafia we lose.

Soooo your point? If we lynch anyone we lose if we lynch scum we lose we just lose.

no, in fact even without the roleblocker i'm pretty sure it's a guaranteed win for town, or at the very least a draw if there's some heavily suboptimal play and people get very lucky. i regret that i didn't get around to making that post going through it all today but anybody reading this shouldn't believe you.

Lynch me
2/2/1
Scum never shoots the SK not in their interest. Town death.
SK hits mafia
1/1/1 Town loses

2/2/1 Scum never shoots SK not in their interest. Town death.
SK shoots same town.
2/1/1 Town loses whichever of SK or mafia gets lynched the other shoots.

2/2/1 Scum shoots a town. SK shoots different town
2/1 Scum win

There is no way for Town or SK to win. Period.

[MathBlade]

Now contrast 3/2/1 lynch the SK.

3/2

Roleblocker doesn't block scum. We lose.

3/2
Roleblocker blocks scum.
This scenario we do have a chance. Lynch the scum.

3/1 or 2/1 next day.

The only chance we have is lynching PM.

[MathBlade]

i was still working on making this more comprehensive but here it is-

Okay, i think i've worked it out where we don't even need to rely on pm to be telling the truth about who he's going to shoot to win this. I've taken the time to get the capital letters out for this one, because it's important that you all read this:

We lynch Math today, that flips scum. We're left with

3

/

1

/

1

. Let's assume both scum and the SK shoot within town, that leaves us with a

1

/

1

/

1

lylo, with the townie having been kingmade. Not only is this a scenario both the mafia and the sk will want to avoid because it's gambling as to who wins, but in this scenario, the townie can actually just self-vote, both scum will be forced to shoot eachother and everyone loses. With that knowledge, both scum and sk should realize that they can't both shoot within town, they have to shoot each other. Them shooting each other obviously results in a town victory. But let's assume that one agrees with that but the other defects or makes a mistake and shoots within town - then, we're left with a

2

/

1

lylo. If PM is the 1 still alive, lynch him. Otherwise, lynch the final mafia.

And since I am Town none of that applies.

[MathBlade]

And I am not a that I am a They. I prefer not to be called a thing.

[MathBlade]

you're saying that scum shooting the serial killer isn't in their interest, but it's actually a sort of prisoner's dilemna scenario. among scum and the serial killer, the one who "defects" is the one who has really the only shot at winning the game - scum have to shoot pm because they have to rely on pm shooting within town to win the game. it's hard to explain all of the possibilities but basically scum shooting within town relies on pm also shooting within town, but loses them the game if pm chose to shoot them. i'm pretty sure it's a nash equilibrium - the completely optimal play is to defect and shoot the other cannibal.

Scum can't shoot PM. They can't. If scum shoot PM they remove the deaths they need for lock. Defecting and shooting PM is something that is wishful thinking.

[MathBlade]

by the way, all of 937 isn't even considering the roleblocker factoring into any of it.

why didn't you factor in the roleblocker in 936, but you did when going through the possibilites of a serial killer lynch? that's disingenuous.

I didn't include it because
A) if Fitz is the roleblocker and I am lynched we lose.
Both scum shoot fitz we all lose.
B) if Fitz is not the roleblocker we lose by outing our roleblocker

So in that scenario lynching me is just auto loss. Fitz can't stop both PM and all the scum.

Right now fmpov it is just insta loss and I am voting the one thing that might let us win.

[MathBlade]

also, math: who's the roleblocker?

Anyone other than Fitz because if it is Fitz we lose.

[MathBlade]

you're saying that scum shooting the serial killer isn't in their interest, but it's actually a sort of prisoner's dilemna scenario. among scum and the serial killer, the one who "defects" is the one who has really the only shot at winning the game - scum have to shoot pm because they have to rely on pm shooting within town to win the game. it's hard to explain all of the possibilities but basically scum shooting within town relies on pm also shooting within town, but loses them the game if pm chose to shoot them. i'm pretty sure it's a nash equilibrium - the completely optimal play is to defect and shoot the other cannibal.

Scum can't shoot PM. They can't. If scum shoot PM they remove the deaths they need for lock. Defecting and shooting PM is something that is wishful thinking.

you're trying to tell me here that defecting in the prisoner's dilemna isn't the optimal choice, but it seriously just can't be denied. i'm pretty sure you understand this and just have to lie in order for scum to win the game here.

scum and the serial killer have to play prisoner's dilemna going into tonight - try to shoot within town and they run the risk of getting shot themselves - defecting is the better choice. in fact, even if they both shoot within town, the last remaining townie can just force a draw. do you get it? scum are literally in a

no-win

scenario.

No.

Most mafia sites make it a forced town loss to prevent the draw scenario.

[MathBlade]

Town cannot eliminate the threats so we lose.

It isn't a hard concept I just have accepted that either A) we lynch PM and maybe win
Or B) we just lose with any other lynch.

[MathBlade]

by the way, all of 937 isn't even considering the roleblocker factoring into any of it.

why didn't you factor in the roleblocker in 936, but you did when going through the possibilites of a serial killer lynch? that's disingenuous.

I didn't include it because
A) if Fitz is the roleblocker and I am lynched we lose.
Both scum shoot fitz we all lose.
B) if Fitz is not the roleblocker we lose by outing our roleblocker

So in that scenario lynching me is just auto loss. Fitz can't stop both PM and all the scum.

Right now fmpov it is just insta loss and I am voting the one thing that might let us win.

hmm... not really sure this makes sense.

If Fitz is town, Fitz believes he has a hard guilty incorrectly on me.

This means Fitz roleblocks me. Town loses as the kill(s) go through.

If Fitz is not the roleblocker then the roleblocker has to block correctly and knows Fitz is scum and has to pick between Fitz and the other scum and wifom it.

[MathBlade]

Town cannot eliminate the threats so we lose.

It isn't a hard concept I just have accepted that either A) we lynch PM and maybe win
Or B) we just lose with any other lynch.

you keep pushing this because it's the only way you (as scum) can win. anyone reading this with a town win condition should stop and listen to me -

town has this game won

, as long as we lynch scum and not pm today.

Again if you lynch scum yes.

That scum is not me.

I can't hard CC Fitz as I am not the roleblocker.

[MathBlade]

I just know I am Town.

So it's like game over we lose so I am doing what I can to fight but I have work tomorrow and it isn't worth it.

So we lose.

[MathBlade]

If Fitz is town, Fitz believes he has a hard guilty incorrectly on me.

This means Fitz roleblocks me. Town loses as the kill(s) go through.

If Fitz is not the roleblocker then the roleblocker has to block correctly and knows Fitz is scum and has to pick between Fitz and the other scum and wifom it.

why are you assuming that the not fitz roleblocker has to decide between the wifom but fitz as the roleblocker would for sure choose you instead of who he believes the partner to be?

Because Fitz has never read me correctly as scum ever and all of a sudden thinks that he would figure out how I would operate as scum despite me having one of the best scum records on site and I pretty much understand how Fitz operates as either alignment having played with him and how if Fitz is the roleblocker him outing here is just a loss so if he is the roleblocker there has to be enough doubt so scum don't shoot him and he reevaluates and hits scum and Fitz never does so he would block me who he incorrectly believes is confirmed scum.

When I play as scum I literally take set ups like Gistou which was a 42 man coach the other scum team in thread down to their exact actions and get strongman vigged for being too Town.

Like I can plot every action and how it plays out. If Fitz is the roleblocker and doesn't fundamentally shift his reads now the game is done.

[MathBlade]

No.

Most mafia sites make it a forced town loss to prevent the draw scenario.

i just checked the wiki for the donner party setup - the win conditions for mafia and the serial killer both explicitly exclude the possibility of a joint victory. what i said still stands.

Then 1-1-1 is mutually assured destruction.

Still a loss.

Point stands we still lose no matter what.

[MathBlade]

If Fitz is town, Fitz believes he has a hard guilty incorrectly on me.

This means Fitz roleblocks me. Town loses as the kill(s) go through.

If Fitz is not the roleblocker then the roleblocker has to block correctly and knows Fitz is scum and has to pick between Fitz and the other scum and wifom it.

why are you assuming that the not fitz roleblocker has to decide between the wifom but fitz as the roleblocker would for sure choose you instead of who he believes the partner to be?

Because Fitz has never read me correctly as scum ever and all of a sudden thinks that he would figure out how I would operate as scum despite me having one of the best scum records on site and I pretty much understand how Fitz operates as either alignment having played with him and how if Fitz is the roleblocker him outing here is just a loss so if he is the roleblocker there has to be enough doubt so scum don't shoot him and he reevaluates and hits scum and Fitz never does so he would block me who he incorrectly believes is confirmed scum.

When I play as scum I literally take set ups like Gistou which was a 42 man coach the other scum team in thread down to their exact actions and get strongman vigged for being too Town.

Like I can plot every action and how it plays out. If Fitz is the roleblocker and doesn't fundamentally shift his reads now the game is done.

I am telling you right now as scum this doesn't happen. I am Town and I know exactly how to play setups like this as scum. It is literally pissing me off that anyone is considering a LyLO guilty.

I am going to bed.

[MathBlade]

Just got home fml

Gut is north and assemblr if Fitz and not Mafia are Town.

Will catch up after dinner fml.

[MathBlade]

i'm going to take this pagetop to reiterate that as long as we lynch scum today (and not pm), we should have this game won.

the mafia and the serial killer are forced into a prisoner's dilemna scenario - each either shoots town or shoots the other. the one who chooses to defect and shoot the other is the only one who survives and has a chance at winning the game - their only choice really is to shoot the other cannibal, otherwise they run the risk of dying themselves for a guaranteed loss.

even if both choose to defect, neither still wins - the townie left in the 1/1/1 situation should let the day end in a no-lynch, where again both are forced to shoot each other during the night. (if scum, for whatever reason, chose to shoot the townie, that would be conceding the game to the other scum who chose to shoot them.)

we have this game won, i'm sure of it, and i actually really love how it's all worked out. we were in a pretty bad spot coming into today and even without any cannibal flips, having lynched town two days in a row and with our dietician dead, we can still pull it off.

You need SO MUCH ROPE

[MathBlade]

okay, i'm just gonna start talking because if i start worrying too much about being concise or formatting then i'll never post anything.

it's certainly a possibility that both scum and the sk shot porkens and the roleblock isn't necessarily a guilty. what

is

a guilty for me, though, was math's reaction. i feel like a townie in this situation would have pushed that point a lot; as it was, this was math's reaction:

PM Fitz assemblr boom done:

Wrong. I'm the roleblocker.

I blocked Goedel N1 and you (MB) N2.

You're scum

Wrong I am Town and Not Mafia already crumbed assembler scum. Try harder.

SK by setup has one shot night proof.

D'oh. Correct.

Hi probTown.

Got a read wall?

amTown
NSG
Porkens
Not_Mafia
Math
Goedel/PM/Assembler

Porkens could be sk or scum that hit vig and stole role but doubtful as he'll probably be sorted tonight if legit.

Really think 2 scum and sk are in bottom 4 listed. Unless fingers crossed one of the nks hit scum.

Wrong FYI Fitz isn't the roleblocker or he'd have blocked assemblr or PM.

...

This is bullshit.

I am Town Fitz is scum.

We should lynch claimed scum today.

This isn't hard.

Like mafia 101
Never trust a fucking guilty in lylo because it is fucking fake.

trying to attack your credibility, desperately trying to get the lynch in that we know wins scum the game. math doesn't seem to care about clearing up a misconception, all he cares about is getting the lynch through, any way possible. town in this situation would want to sort things out - i don't see that anywhere.

wow, i started this post with still some suspicion that i could be wrong on math scum and i'm ending it absolutely confident that i'm right.

lol I have been AT WORK.

There is no misconception to clear up you are just wrong there is no dilemma.

Scum will never in any world shoot the SK period.

[MathBlade]

Like Fitz thinks I am guilty because he blocked a VT congratufuckinglations.

Now I am eating dinner.

Peace out.

[MathBlade]

lol I have been AT WORK.

There is no misconception to clear up you are just wrong there is no dilemma.

Scum will never in any world shoot the SK period.

i never criticized you anywhere for your activity.

what do you call fitz's statement that he blocked you and you're scum, then? i mean, if you were actually a vt who got blocked, why didn't you push that point more?

if scum don't shoot the serial killer they are guaranteed to lose - i'm not sure why you keep pushing this point. even more, what do you suggest as our alternative? like, it's all but confirmed that we have 2 scum still alive - trying to fit the nightkills such that there's only one scum alive now leads to nonsensical conclusions.

This is a lie. You said I'm not clearing up the misconception (again I reiterate there isn't one). I hadn't posted since I had gone to work. This means this "misconception" I hadn't have addressed had to have occurred when I wasn't posting as it sure as hell wasn't brought up when I was.

I already addressed it. Scum is one of two teams Fitz and NM or you and Assembler. I already said he had a bad "guilty" but he's expressed intent no matter what I say or do he's voting me. So I'm just doing what I can with a game that's pretty much lost.

If scum don't shoot the serial killer they are guaranteed the win. Like this is obvious. I already explained it. I'm not going around in circles with you on this when you're absolutely stuck in your ways.

Trying to fit the night kills with one scum dead works IF Porkens is a liar which scum wouldn't CC as that is stupid.

I'm telling you both mafia and the SK shot Porkens. When I flip town because of the "guilty" this will become clear.

[MathBlade]

I'm all in for a Math lynch. I see him as Scum.

VOTE: Math L -1, Fitz, this is your hammer.

Them please.

It's the least you can do if you're gonna blatantly scumside.

[MathBlade]

SK won't shoot scum.

Not in their interest.

Again you're proposing scum are dumb and then asking me to assume it and I won't.

[MathBlade]

Math...why aren't you scum?

1) VT role PM
2) Not self hammering
3) My arguments have always been protown

Sorry will do more later I gotta go to work.

[MathBlade]

Will address this late tonight.

[MathBlade]

I'm exhausted as fuck...I think my play speaks for itself but me trying to say how I am town. If my play didn't really convince you I sat on it and well I don't. I think I'm pretty transparent but ...:/ Honestly I just don't know what to say here.

[MathBlade]

Yeah...Math isn't doing anything to save his butt. If his play stood for itself I wouldn't have blocked him in the first place.

Not_mafia seems pretty adament that the team is NSG and Assembler but has done nada to try and convince anyone else. Aside from one short incriminating comment towards Assembler from D1 he has done nothing iirc to further implicate Assembler. All we get from him is Assembler is scum, Assembler is scum, etc etc. If you are town Not_Mafia thanks for nothing.

NSG and Assembler are both voting (bussing?) Math and PM is along for the ride. As long as we aren't lynching him he is happy.

I would possibly consider someone else to vote but I'd rather get stuck with a potential unfortunate mislynch than a "WTF are you doing ignoring your block result" pardon on scum.

Keep it simple stupid.

So I'll vote Math shortly.

In the meantime....PM...what is your plan for tonight if Math flips town and if Math flips scum?

I won't be blocking you so you will be able to get a kill off.

I just need to decide whether or not to block anyone tonight and if so...on whom.

If Math is scum I might not block anyone as I expect you will target me in hopes of avoiding scum and getting to a 1-1-1 scenario whereas if I do not block anyone (assuming I'd have blocked correctly)...scum would probably target you in hopes of winning in 3 player lylo.

If Math is NOT scum however I think we would want to work together with you targeting someone OTHER than me and me blocking one of the players you don't target. Best case you hit non shooting scum and I block the shooter. Not sure where that would leave town tomorrow but it would be better than you missing scum and me not blocking their nk'er.

...You're literally the only one who scumread me. The ONLY one. Now people are opportunistic as fuck. My play is obviously town.

[MathBlade]

GG All It was fun. At least I was right on Keychain mafia lol.

[MathBlade]

GG All It was fun. At least I was right on Keychain mafia lol.

You were right on almost every premise, but -somehow- managed to reach the wrong conclusion!

It’s improvement! I will take that as a victory!