Mini Normal 1969 - Blessed Mafia (Werewolf Win)
- Tchill13
-
Tchill13 Survivor
- Tchill13
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11552
- Joined: March 17, 2017
I never argue to argue with one person. I argue for others to clearly understand my position on a matter. If we don't Lynch the Miller claim on day 1 we start this game off on the wrong foot. My intention was never to convince those who have already made up there mind. It's to convince those who haven't posted or didn't partake. Whymafia you haven't scum hunted at all. When you point one finger there's four pointing back at you.- Tchill13
-
Tchill13 Survivor
- Tchill13
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11552
- Joined: March 17, 2017
- WhyMafia
-
WhyMafia Jack of All Trades
- WhyMafia
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5088
- Joined: March 11, 2017
Tchill ...In post 675, Tchill13 wrote:I never argue to argue with one person. I argue for others to clearly understand my position on a matter. If we don't Lynch the Miller claim on day 1 we start this game off on the wrong foot. My intention was never to convince those who have already made up there mind. It's to convince those who haven't posted or didn't partake. Whymafia you haven't scum hunted at all. When you point one finger there's four pointing back at you.
I town read you? Your play compared to Quick has a sharp contrast.- WhyMafia
-
WhyMafia Jack of All Trades
- WhyMafia
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5088
- Joined: March 11, 2017
- Quick
-
Quick Jack of All Trades
- Quick
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5781
- Joined: October 11, 2017
Your presupposition relies on lack of context into what a miller claim is and why it is problematic for Town. You can't reduce it to "lynch the Scummiest player" because even you admit that Espe cannot see LyLo. What I want to know and what you still have not answered, is why is it beneficial for Town to delay lynching a slot that cannot see LyLo given that at the beginning of the game is when we have the least to go on so putting off lynching a miller claim has not only unpredictable results, but that Scum already know if Espe is Town or not which gives them a tactical advantage, so all Scum have to do is observe and react to what Town does in regards to lynching a miller claim rather than forcing a known lynch which forces Scum to have to play a more strategic game rather than a reactionary game rather which forces letting Espe live for an automatic unknown amount of time given that if we are having this conversation now then there is no guarantee that this conversation will not come up tomorrow since it's the fact that you default to leaving your options open rather than going with a strategy that is known to benefit Town in the long run because it eliminates the uncertainty in dealing with a slot that given the nature of the claimed role we will never have any way to confirm them as Town, only confirm them as Scum which makes it a +EV play to lynch Espe in all worlds short of something insane happening.In post 671, Something_Smart wrote:
I hold my reasoning ability above the norm too (as do I imagine most people on this site). But that's not what I meant; I wanted proof that this is in fact the standard because in my experience the standard way to deal with a miller is to judge them on play.In post 658, Quick wrote:
I hold my reasoning ability above the norm, I guess. If you're looking for evidence why I should put such confidence in myself I would tell you I scored better than 93% of people in the Science portion of the ACT which involves interpretation, analysis, evaluation, reasoning, and problem solving. Just so it doesn't look like I am bragging tho, I scored better than only 45% of people in either Reading or English, I can't remember which.In post 646, Something_Smart wrote:
Evidence?In post 644, Quick wrote:Lynching miller D1 is the STANDARD way you SHOULD deal with that claim UNLESS there is something beyond magical that happens during the day that would override a miller death D1.
I've seen at least 4 games with miller claims and this view was never held by more than a few players, if it was even brought up at all. Even here it's a minority view.
I don't think I'm the one who moved the goal posts. The aim of a mafia game is to lynch scum. This is an incontrovertible fact. Therefore, without a compelling reason to the contrary, we should lynch the player we think most likely to be scum. I am not positive of his alignment, but I townread him, and I believe we can get a better CHANCE of flipping scum lynching someone else. Arguing that you need certainty is dumb; this is not a game about certainty but about judgements and probabilities.
Because the most reasonable play to make if you are not positive of Espe's alignment as Town is to lynch the miller claim for reasons stated by Chill which you haven't actually refuted, but just moved the goal posts. If you want to argue that not lynching Espe is a more correct process, you are going to have to argue why keeping Espe alive for a later time in the game is beneficial to Town given you can't be sure of Espe's alignment. I believe the only possible reasons you can say that Espe shouldn't be lynched at this point is because either there is a legit Scum slip (which you will be hard pressed to convince me of because as I said earlier, I don't believe in slips unless it is blatantly obvious to everyone in the game) or you think you are better at making associations through Espe's play with other players to the degree that you know for certain that the next lynch will not be on Town. That would also require you to lynch Scum D1 as well. Good luck arguing that one.In post 647, Something_Smart wrote:
Once again, you can't make claims like this with no evidence.In post 645, Quick wrote:And lets get this strait, you don't NOT lynch a miller claim "because I believe the claim" you don't lynch a miller claim because "there is no doubt in my mind that the miller slot is Town" and if you have that kind of read on Espe at this point you should just quit Mafia right now.
There are 11 people that I will not end up lynching today. Clearly I can't be positive that they're ALL town. So why should I have to positive that ESPE is town in order to not lynch him?
I want to lynch scum. Espe is not likely scum. Therefore, I don't want to lynch Espe. If I end up lynching town, then I was not WRONG about the probability of that person flipping scum, and mislynching someone else is NOT worse than mislynching Espe. Because whoever we would have lynched had we not lynched Espe would be considered the scummiest person in the town, and would be mislynched the next day.
Because I think he is town. I don't have to be certain he is town; I just have to believe that his odds of flipping scum are lower than other players' odds.In post 660, Quick wrote:Why are you even arguing that we should keep Espe around because it only makes it a little harder to solve the game? Why take a harder option at all? Again, you have to be certain that Espe is Town for even your own arguments to even have a barring on whether we keep Espe alive or not.- Something_Smart
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
- Something_Smart
He/him- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23124
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
No, I agree that I am focusing on the short term and you are focusing on the long term. However we just disagree about which focus gives us better odds.In post 672, Tchill13 wrote:SS clearly has the ability to reason but can't see that his play is a day to day approach while mine focuses on putting town in the best position to win in later day phases. We're not going to Lynch all the scum in the first few days phases. The PROBABILITY of that is very low but that's how you're approaching it. If we Lynch someone else today we still have to deal with espe just like if we lynched espe today we'd still have to deal with the next scummiest.
It is beneficial for town to delay lynching a slot that cannot see LYLO because (a) Espe's contribution may help us to lynch scum while he is alive, (b) a town role that could confirm him could exist, and (c) the game could end before LYLO.In post 679, Quick wrote:Your presupposition relies on lack of context into what a miller claim is and why it is problematic for Town. You can't reduce it to "lynch the Scummiest player" because even you admit that Espe cannot see LyLo. What I want to know and what you still have not answered, is why is it beneficial for Town to delay lynching a slot that cannot see LyLo given that at the beginning of the game is when we have the least to go on so putting off lynching a miller claim has not only unpredictable results, but that Scum already know if Espe is Town or not which gives them a tactical advantage, so all Scum have to do is observe and react to what Town does in regards to lynching a miller claim rather than forcing a known lynch which forces Scum to have to play a more strategic game rather than a reactionary game rather which forces letting Espe live for an automatic unknown amount of time given that if we are having this conversation now then there is no guarantee that this conversation will not come up tomorrow since it's the fact that you default to leaving your options open rather than going with a strategy that is known to benefit Town in the long run because it eliminates the uncertainty in dealing with a slot that given the nature of the claimed role we will never have any way to confirm them as Town, only confirm them as Scum which makes it a +EV play to lynch Espe in all worlds short of something insane happening.
The last few lines are not right. It's not known to benefit town; that's why I asked for evidence since you seem to believe that it's standard site meta to lynch miller claims day 1 but I haven't seen anything that supports that. And there ARE ways to confirm him as town which I've said like 4 times now. What you're writing off as "something insane" is actually "the setup contains a gunsmith, rolecop, vig, or loyal investigative role" which isn't insane.- Quick
-
Quick Jack of All Trades
- Quick
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5781
- Joined: October 11, 2017
Fix your links and I will answer.In post 673, WhyMafia wrote:In post 131, WhyMafia wrote:
If I'm gambiting town, I get to eat the NK from potentially a PRIn post 128, Quick wrote:
Uh... Why do you think???In post 126, WhyMafia wrote:
Why does it matter to you?In post 124, Quick wrote:
Just quoting this to see if WhyMafia is full of shit or not.In post 20, Quick wrote:
Is that like a IC delayed until D2 or something?In post 17, WhyMafia wrote:Hard claiming that I will be confirmed town tomorrow
VOTE: Quick
If I'm telling the truth, you'll find out tomorrow
If I'm scum and have not been confirmed town, you lynch me based on the play
Why in any of these scenarios would you want a definitive answer
I don't like how you sidestepped my question with your response in 144[/[post]. Can you answer the question?In post 131, WhyMafia wrote:
If I'm gambiting town, I get to eat the NK from potentially a PRIn post 128, Quick wrote:
Uh... Why do you think???In post 126, WhyMafia wrote:
Why does it matter to you?In post 124, Quick wrote:
Just quoting this to see if WhyMafia is full of shit or not.In post 20, Quick wrote:
Is that like a IC delayed until D2 or something?In post 17, WhyMafia wrote:Hard claiming that I will be confirmed town tomorrow
VOTE: Quick
If I'm telling the truth, you'll find out tomorrow
If I'm scum and have not been confirmed town, you lynch me based on the play
Why in any of these scenarios would you want a definitive answer
I also don't like your [post]530
To me it seems that this is a post that could set up a mis-lynch in the future. Can you go through your mindset on why you said this?
In 607 why do you think it's an agenda
Also:
Clearly you and Tchill aren't convincing the majority of town. Who do you think is manipulating us? Why aren't you focused on convincing others that you're right? Your main argument has been with SS. To me, it doesn't seem like you're trying your hardest to get that lynch through.
Furthermore, by making the miller claim a centerpoint for discussion despite realizing that this lynch in all likelihood won't happen, you're causing less scum hunting to take place and putting your vote on a vanity wagon
You are making a mistake I think Town is more likely to make than Scum. You are demonstrating a contradiction in thought process. Proof of this is that you argue that on the one hand that with regards to the miller claim its best to take it a day at a time ignoring the fact that Espe could be Scum which ignores a future outlook on the game and on the other hand you are looking into my motivation in the future tense. You can't have it both ways. Either play in mind for the future or play in mind in the present, this mix and match shit isn't going to work.
I think Ari has an agenda because the onlyScumhunting (or demonstrating a willingness to sort someone by engaging with them)(which is besides reads) he has done are on slot's that have already received more than their fair share of Suspicion or myself who brought into light that Ari was doing this in the first place. It's a Scum mindset to have to either soft bus Jay in that spot or throw more suspicion on a slot already receiving suspicion which would mean he is playing opportunistically considering he hasn't Scumhunted anyone who is outside of Suspicion already. And IDK what Ari's stance on Espe is and that's not good either, but perhaps he did say what it is and I just don't remember.
I don't have to know who is manipulating us, all I have to know is who is making a correct play and who is making an incorrect play. Based on that I can look back on the resistance to the Espe wagon and determine who's motives were pure in no wanting to lynch Espe and whose were not. I prolly won't go to all that trouble tho because I will still be trying to lynch Espe which is the correct play in all worlds barring something insane happens. It's not my fault that people are playing in a way that gives Town a worse chance of winning. If I don't push Espe today, when it is the optimal time to lynch them, then who is going to push Espe tomorrow when Town still won't have any more answers into Espe's alignment.- Tchill13
-
Tchill13 Survivor
- Tchill13
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11552
- Joined: March 17, 2017
- Tchill13
-
Tchill13 Survivor
- Tchill13
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11552
- Joined: March 17, 2017
- Dunkerdoodles
-
Dunkerdoodles Mafia Scum
- Dunkerdoodles
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3119
- Joined: May 2, 2017
- Espeonage
-
Espeonage anySurvivor
- Espeonage
any- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11651
- Joined: December 17, 2009
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Existential Dread of my Inner Thoughts
Bc he wouldn't shutup about it first thing in the game.In post 531, Quick wrote:
What makes you so confident it has to be multiball if Jay flips Scum? My dirty little secret is that I am reading both you and Jay as Scum. Take that fwiw.In post 520, Espeonage wrote:I kind of what to flip Jay.
If they flip scum, it's multiball. Which is good to know.
Bc relationally my scumreads don't make sense together and I have four of them. And it'd be nice to have a chance for them all to be scum at the same time.Don't @ me.- Quick
-
Quick Jack of All Trades
- Quick
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5781
- Joined: October 11, 2017
That completely ignores the playstyle of the slot.In post 685, Espeonage wrote:
Bc he wouldn't shutup about it first thing in the game.In post 531, Quick wrote:
What makes you so confident it has to be multiball if Jay flips Scum? My dirty little secret is that I am reading both you and Jay as Scum. Take that fwiw.In post 520, Espeonage wrote:I kind of what to flip Jay.
If they flip scum, it's multiball. Which is good to know.
Bc relationally my scumreads don't make sense together and I have four of them. And it'd be nice to have a chance for them all to be scum at the same time.- Espeonage
-
Espeonage anySurvivor
- Espeonage
any- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11651
- Joined: December 17, 2009
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Existential Dread of my Inner Thoughts
This post should be grounds for a force replace imoIn post 651, Tchill13 wrote:
Town... For now.In post 643, JaydragonKing wrote:That feel when your a noob but everyone elsa around you is using meta strategies from having multiple games together.
If I was scum, I really would have been fucked.
If you Mainstays on this site could kindly use evidence from this game instead of previous experience with that player for your case, so someone such as myself can make an informed decision, that would be wonderful.
UNVOTE:
I'll cherry pick my reasons for keeping ppl around as well. This player seems pleasant and is giving effort. I'm not lynching until day 3 at the least or we have enough evidence to believe they're scum. Effort is NAI but makes for a more enjoyable experience. So yeah I'm gonna play with jaydragonking for a bit.
That is my place to judge, not yours.Last edited by Assemblerotws on Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.Don't @ me.- Espeonage
-
Espeonage anySurvivor
- Espeonage
any- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11651
- Joined: December 17, 2009
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Existential Dread of my Inner Thoughts
For this to be true it requires you to think out only way of winning is through power roles and not day play.In post 653, Tchill13 wrote:It seems to imply I absolutely believe lynching espe will help town win this game whether he's scum or not. I will absolutely risk Lynching a townie that at its very core makes the game mechanically hard to win as town. I'll risk that over mislynching a townie that could be helpful every time. If we Lynch the Miller claim we possibly hit scum. We possibly hit a negative utility. We DO NOT risk another claim day 1. We do not risk wasting a mislynch on a townie that is not a negative utility while leaving a negative utility on the board that WILL NOT be killed by scum.
And my day play ability is why I want to get to day 2 because I believe the entire point of the game is to focus on day play.Don't @ me.- Flavor Leaf
-
Flavor Leaf Survivor
- Flavor Leaf
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 42893
- Joined: July 17, 2017
- Location: San Francisco
You realize you are top 3 lowest posters basically, right?In post 684, Dunkerdoodles wrote:quick is town
tchill is town
something_smart is townlean but might be scum
i think jay is town
whymaf is town
basically i think the scum is in the people not postingCHECK OUT MY HOW TO PLAY AS SCUM GUIDE Maybe it'll help you catch me
”Yeah, the moment I realized Flavor was scum I stopped trying because I’m sure as hell not beating him.” - Clemency
”Not bragging about myself as much as I'm actually praising the Scum player of the year...and probably the decade.” - Almost50
"Just accept that FL is too good as scum, period." - Clidd- Quick
-
Quick Jack of All Trades
- Quick
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5781
- Joined: October 11, 2017
- Tchill13
-
Tchill13 Survivor
- Tchill13
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11552
- Joined: March 17, 2017
wanted to see what would come of it. you didnt dissapoint. if your "day play' is calling for people to be force replaced then it's definitely a style i havent seen before.In post 687, Espeonage wrote:
This post should be grounds for a force replace imoIn post 651, Tchill13 wrote:
Town... For now.In post 643, JaydragonKing wrote:That feel when your a noob but everyone elsa around you is using meta strategies from having multiple games together.
If I was scum, I really would have been fucked.
If you Mainstays on this site could kindly use evidence from this game instead of previous experience with that player for your case, so someone such as myself can make an informed decision, that would be wonderful.
UNVOTE:
I'll cherry pick my reasons for keeping ppl around as well. This player seems pleasant and is giving effort. I'm not lynching until day 3 at the least or we have enough evidence to believe they're scum. Effort is NAI but makes for a more enjoyable experience. So yeah I'm gonna play with jaydragonking for a bit.- Quick
-
Quick Jack of All Trades
- Quick
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5781
- Joined: October 11, 2017
Going to do a Yolo Scum team read (and I really do mean Yolo because I never do this, just doing it now because I am on fire and I need to do something crazy).
Espe
Ari
Jay
Dunk
Flavor - less sure- Espeonage
-
Espeonage anySurvivor
- Espeonage
any- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11651
- Joined: December 17, 2009
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Existential Dread of my Inner Thoughts
Hello. I'm right here. The reason you keep me around is because I am good at this game.In post 679, Quick wrote:
Your presupposition relies on lack of context into what a miller claim is and why it is problematic for Town. You can't reduce it to "lynch the Scummiest player" because even you admit that Espe cannot see LyLo. What I want to know and what you still have not answered, is why is it beneficial for Town to delay lynching a slot that cannot see LyLo given that at the beginning of the game is when we have the least to go on so putting off lynching a miller claim has not only unpredictable results, but that Scum already know if Espe is Town or not which gives them a tactical advantage, so all Scum have to do is observe and react to what Town does in regards to lynching a miller claim rather than forcing a known lynch which forces Scum to have to play a more strategic game rather than a reactionary game rather which forces letting Espe live for an automatic unknown amount of time given that if we are having this conversation now then there is no guarantee that this conversation will not come up tomorrow since it's the fact that you default to leaving your options open rather than going with a strategy that is known to benefit Town in the long run because it eliminates the uncertainty in dealing with a slot that given the nature of the claimed role we will never have any way to confirm them as Town, only confirm them as Scum which makes it a +EV play to lynch Espe in all worlds short of something insane happening.In post 671, Something_Smart wrote:
I hold my reasoning ability above the norm too (as do I imagine most people on this site). But that's not what I meant; I wanted proof that this is in fact the standard because in my experience the standard way to deal with a miller is to judge them on play.In post 658, Quick wrote:
I hold my reasoning ability above the norm, I guess. If you're looking for evidence why I should put such confidence in myself I would tell you I scored better than 93% of people in the Science portion of the ACT which involves interpretation, analysis, evaluation, reasoning, and problem solving. Just so it doesn't look like I am bragging tho, I scored better than only 45% of people in either Reading or English, I can't remember which.In post 646, Something_Smart wrote:
Evidence?In post 644, Quick wrote:Lynching miller D1 is the STANDARD way you SHOULD deal with that claim UNLESS there is something beyond magical that happens during the day that would override a miller death D1.
I've seen at least 4 games with miller claims and this view was never held by more than a few players, if it was even brought up at all. Even here it's a minority view.
I don't think I'm the one who moved the goal posts. The aim of a mafia game is to lynch scum. This is an incontrovertible fact. Therefore, without a compelling reason to the contrary, we should lynch the player we think most likely to be scum. I am not positive of his alignment, but I townread him, and I believe we can get a better CHANCE of flipping scum lynching someone else. Arguing that you need certainty is dumb; this is not a game about certainty but about judgements and probabilities.
Because the most reasonable play to make if you are not positive of Espe's alignment as Town is to lynch the miller claim for reasons stated by Chill which you haven't actually refuted, but just moved the goal posts. If you want to argue that not lynching Espe is a more correct process, you are going to have to argue why keeping Espe alive for a later time in the game is beneficial to Town given you can't be sure of Espe's alignment. I believe the only possible reasons you can say that Espe shouldn't be lynched at this point is because either there is a legit Scum slip (which you will be hard pressed to convince me of because as I said earlier, I don't believe in slips unless it is blatantly obvious to everyone in the game) or you think you are better at making associations through Espe's play with other players to the degree that you know for certain that the next lynch will not be on Town. That would also require you to lynch Scum D1 as well. Good luck arguing that one.In post 647, Something_Smart wrote:
Once again, you can't make claims like this with no evidence.In post 645, Quick wrote:And lets get this strait, you don't NOT lynch a miller claim "because I believe the claim" you don't lynch a miller claim because "there is no doubt in my mind that the miller slot is Town" and if you have that kind of read on Espe at this point you should just quit Mafia right now.
There are 11 people that I will not end up lynching today. Clearly I can't be positive that they're ALL town. So why should I have to positive that ESPE is town in order to not lynch him?
I want to lynch scum. Espe is not likely scum. Therefore, I don't want to lynch Espe. If I end up lynching town, then I was not WRONG about the probability of that person flipping scum, and mislynching someone else is NOT worse than mislynching Espe. Because whoever we would have lynched had we not lynched Espe would be considered the scummiest person in the town, and would be mislynched the next day.
Because I think he is town. I don't have to be certain he is town; I just have to believe that his odds of flipping scum are lower than other players' odds.In post 660, Quick wrote:Why are you even arguing that we should keep Espe around because it only makes it a little harder to solve the game? Why take a harder option at all? Again, you have to be certain that Espe is Town for even your own arguments to even have a barring on whether we keep Espe alive or not.
This was the whole point of me claiming.
I have even said this, multiple times.
I want to see day 2 so that I can out my expertise to use.
And this is the mean reason I think you're scum. I believe you to be scum because you are scared of me.Don't @ me.- Tchill13
-
Tchill13 Survivor
- Tchill13
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11552
- Joined: March 17, 2017
discrediting and undermining my play. nice. I'd lynch the best mafia player of all time if he hurt town more than he could help. No matter what you say or do you have to be lynched sooner than later due to your claim. sorry im not letting your gambit work unlike the rest of the player list. Nice to meet you though.In post 688, Espeonage wrote:
For this to be true it requires you to think out only way of winning is through power roles and not day play.In post 653, Tchill13 wrote:It seems to imply I absolutely believe lynching espe will help town win this game whether he's scum or not. I will absolutely risk Lynching a townie that at its very core makes the game mechanically hard to win as town. I'll risk that over mislynching a townie that could be helpful every time. If we Lynch the Miller claim we possibly hit scum. We possibly hit a negative utility. We DO NOT risk another claim day 1. We do not risk wasting a mislynch on a townie that is not a negative utility while leaving a negative utility on the board that WILL NOT be killed by scum.
And my day play ability is why I want to get to day 2 because I believe the entire point of the game is to focus on day play.- Espeonage
-
Espeonage anySurvivor
- Espeonage
any- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11651
- Joined: December 17, 2009
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Existential Dread of my Inner Thoughts
A. This is why we flip me.In post 682, Tchill13 wrote:A) he can actually still be scum that is misguiding us B) Not confirm but give the role more credibility, a HUGE difference C) its much less likely to happen with a short term mindset.
B. Gunsmith confirms me, rolecop confirms me, vanilla cop and Neapolitan half confirm me.Don't @ me.- Quick
-
Quick Jack of All Trades
- Quick
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5781
- Joined: October 11, 2017
I ain't scurd and your tone is fake af. Mock aggression, that is what I am calling it. And LOL, I am good at this game too.In post 693, Espeonage wrote:
Hello. I'm right here. The reason you keep me around is because I am good at this game.In post 679, Quick wrote:
Your presupposition relies on lack of context into what a miller claim is and why it is problematic for Town. You can't reduce it to "lynch the Scummiest player" because even you admit that Espe cannot see LyLo. What I want to know and what you still have not answered, is why is it beneficial for Town to delay lynching a slot that cannot see LyLo given that at the beginning of the game is when we have the least to go on so putting off lynching a miller claim has not only unpredictable results, but that Scum already know if Espe is Town or not which gives them a tactical advantage, so all Scum have to do is observe and react to what Town does in regards to lynching a miller claim rather than forcing a known lynch which forces Scum to have to play a more strategic game rather than a reactionary game rather which forces letting Espe live for an automatic unknown amount of time given that if we are having this conversation now then there is no guarantee that this conversation will not come up tomorrow since it's the fact that you default to leaving your options open rather than going with a strategy that is known to benefit Town in the long run because it eliminates the uncertainty in dealing with a slot that given the nature of the claimed role we will never have any way to confirm them as Town, only confirm them as Scum which makes it a +EV play to lynch Espe in all worlds short of something insane happening.In post 671, Something_Smart wrote:
I hold my reasoning ability above the norm too (as do I imagine most people on this site). But that's not what I meant; I wanted proof that this is in fact the standard because in my experience the standard way to deal with a miller is to judge them on play.In post 658, Quick wrote:
I hold my reasoning ability above the norm, I guess. If you're looking for evidence why I should put such confidence in myself I would tell you I scored better than 93% of people in the Science portion of the ACT which involves interpretation, analysis, evaluation, reasoning, and problem solving. Just so it doesn't look like I am bragging tho, I scored better than only 45% of people in either Reading or English, I can't remember which.In post 646, Something_Smart wrote:
Evidence?In post 644, Quick wrote:Lynching miller D1 is the STANDARD way you SHOULD deal with that claim UNLESS there is something beyond magical that happens during the day that would override a miller death D1.
I've seen at least 4 games with miller claims and this view was never held by more than a few players, if it was even brought up at all. Even here it's a minority view.
I don't think I'm the one who moved the goal posts. The aim of a mafia game is to lynch scum. This is an incontrovertible fact. Therefore, without a compelling reason to the contrary, we should lynch the player we think most likely to be scum. I am not positive of his alignment, but I townread him, and I believe we can get a better CHANCE of flipping scum lynching someone else. Arguing that you need certainty is dumb; this is not a game about certainty but about judgements and probabilities.
Because the most reasonable play to make if you are not positive of Espe's alignment as Town is to lynch the miller claim for reasons stated by Chill which you haven't actually refuted, but just moved the goal posts. If you want to argue that not lynching Espe is a more correct process, you are going to have to argue why keeping Espe alive for a later time in the game is beneficial to Town given you can't be sure of Espe's alignment. I believe the only possible reasons you can say that Espe shouldn't be lynched at this point is because either there is a legit Scum slip (which you will be hard pressed to convince me of because as I said earlier, I don't believe in slips unless it is blatantly obvious to everyone in the game) or you think you are better at making associations through Espe's play with other players to the degree that you know for certain that the next lynch will not be on Town. That would also require you to lynch Scum D1 as well. Good luck arguing that one.In post 647, Something_Smart wrote:
Once again, you can't make claims like this with no evidence.In post 645, Quick wrote:And lets get this strait, you don't NOT lynch a miller claim "because I believe the claim" you don't lynch a miller claim because "there is no doubt in my mind that the miller slot is Town" and if you have that kind of read on Espe at this point you should just quit Mafia right now.
There are 11 people that I will not end up lynching today. Clearly I can't be positive that they're ALL town. So why should I have to positive that ESPE is town in order to not lynch him?
I want to lynch scum. Espe is not likely scum. Therefore, I don't want to lynch Espe. If I end up lynching town, then I was not WRONG about the probability of that person flipping scum, and mislynching someone else is NOT worse than mislynching Espe. Because whoever we would have lynched had we not lynched Espe would be considered the scummiest person in the town, and would be mislynched the next day.
Because I think he is town. I don't have to be certain he is town; I just have to believe that his odds of flipping scum are lower than other players' odds.In post 660, Quick wrote:Why are you even arguing that we should keep Espe around because it only makes it a little harder to solve the game? Why take a harder option at all? Again, you have to be certain that Espe is Town for even your own arguments to even have a barring on whether we keep Espe alive or not.
This was the whole point of me claiming.
I have even said this, multiple times.
I want to see day 2 so that I can out my expertise to use.
And this is the mean reason I think you're scum. I believe you to be scum because you are scared of me.- Espeonage
-
Espeonage anySurvivor
- Espeonage
any- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11651
- Joined: December 17, 2009
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Existential Dread of my Inner Thoughts
Ok, convince me that hay hasn't scumslipped like I did in Denmark mafiaIn post 686, Quick wrote:
That completely ignores the playstyle of the slot.In post 685, Espeonage wrote:
Bc he wouldn't shutup about it first thing in the game.In post 531, Quick wrote:
What makes you so confident it has to be multiball if Jay flips Scum? My dirty little secret is that I am reading both you and Jay as Scum. Take that fwiw.In post 520, Espeonage wrote:I kind of what to flip Jay.
If they flip scum, it's multiball. Which is good to know.
Bc relationally my scumreads don't make sense together and I have four of them. And it'd be nice to have a chance for them all to be scum at the same time.Don't @ me.- Tchill13
-
Tchill13 Survivor
- Tchill13
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 11552
- Joined: March 17, 2017
you know what confirms a miller? a flip.In post 695, Espeonage wrote:
A. This is why we flip me.In post 682, Tchill13 wrote:A) he can actually still be scum that is misguiding us B) Not confirm but give the role more credibility, a HUGE difference C) its much less likely to happen with a short term mindset.
B. Gunsmith confirms me, rolecop confirms me, vanilla cop and Neapolitan half confirm me.Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.
- Tchill13
- Espeonage
- Quick
- Espeonage
- Tchill13
- Espeonage
- Quick
- Tchill13
- Quick
- Flavor Leaf
- Espeonage
- Espeonage
- Quick
- Espeonage
- Dunkerdoodles
- Tchill13
- Tchill13
- Quick
- Something_Smart
- Quick
- WhyMafia
- WhyMafia
- Tchill13
- Tchill13