Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

[Fishythefish]

Not much new from me. A quick summary of where I am:
- boring and PH look mildly town. boring looked good to me on Day 2, and PH seems to be trying hard to do things well now.
- kelbris hasn't done very much, and his reads today are primarily intended for survival. That's probably scum.
- DV has posted quite a lot while mostly avoiding doing anything interesting, and looks like under-the-radar scum. I think UC's play on DV was bussing.

I'm a bit sad that my pretty good Day 1 play in this game has been diluted by being inactive Day 2.

How would it make sense for me to be under the radar scum when I’m at L-1?

I suppose "failed under the radar scum" would be a better term

Post 966 gives my thoughts about your day 1. Since then, there's still nothing in your posting that makes me think you're town - it's been very mainstream wagons (boring, Transcend), except for a brief poke at Ecto. The cold, analytical style fits your scum meta better than your town meta. And I think you fit well with DV.

Today, you've done more, but that fits with desperation of being caught scum (possibly even with a caught partner). Your push on boring looks pretty bad to me - I'd really expect town in your position to be arguing why boring is scum, but you mostly lost interest when a boring-lynch wasn't on the table.

[mutantdevle]

Welp the good news is that everyone has stated their reads on everyone (by everyone I mean the non-PRs). So thank you all for that. A special shoutout to fishy for being the only one who was clear in his reads :3 The rest of you have some clarifying to do. For the record, how I found these reads is I looked at the ISO of each person by starting from their most recent posts. As soon as I found their reads on someone, I stopped looking. So I ignored context on some of what was being said. Hence the possibility that this reads list may be wrong. If so, please correct me. Aside from that, here are the basics of what everyone is saying:

Deas reads:

Kelbris - Scum
Boring - Scum
Fishy - Null/Town (unclear)
Hawk - Town

Hawk reads:

Kelbris - Scum
Deas - Scum/Null (unclear)
Boring - Town/Scum/Null (unclear)
Fishy - Town

Kelbris reads:

Deas - Scum
Hawk - Scum
Boring - Null/Town (unclear)
Fishy - Town

Boring reads:

Deas - Scum
Kelbris - Scum
Hawk - Scum/Null (unclear)
Fishy - Town

Fishy reads:

Deas - Scum
Kelbris - Scum
Hawk - Town
Boring - Town


(I ordered each list with who each player thinks is most scummy at the top and least scummy at the bottom).


Things I'd like clarified:

@Deas, do you have a town read or a null read on Fishy?
@Hawk, do you have a scum read or a null read on Deas?
@Hawk, what is your read on Boring? (Your most recent read on her glossed over the possibility she could be any of the 3).
@Kelbris, do you have a town read or a null read on Boring?
@Boring, do you have a scum read or a null read on Hawk?

[kelbris]

I would say that boring is town.

[kelbris]

EBWOP: will post more tomorrow, 2:40AM here and I am going to bed.

[davesaz]

Vote Count 4.6

DeasVail(3) - boring, Fishythefish, kelbris
kelbris(2) - ProHawk, DeasVail

not voting (2) - mutantdevle, havingfitz

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
(expired on 2017-12-12 22:00:00)

[mutantdevle]

So we have 2 days left, that's less than I thought. Could y'all speed up with your replies?

[DeasVail]

So we have 2 days left, that's less than I thought. Could y'all speed up with your replies?

Fishy is a town read for me but if either Kelbris or boring happened to be town, he would be where I’d be looking.

[ProHawk]

Do I have to choose? lol I can't decide between boring and deas right now

[mutantdevle]

Do I have to choose? lol I can't decide between boring and deas right now

I’m not asking you to choose between them; I accept that you may view them at the same level. But level do you see them at? Are they scummy, null or town to you? I’m assuming scum since null and town wouldn’t make sense in this context.

[boring]

@Boring, do you have a scum read or a null read on Hawk?

I think I already explained this. Right now, Hawk and Kelbris are sharing a scum read. Kelbris is the obvious choice for partner with DeasVail, but Prohawk's play today gives me serious pause.

I mean, if Deas an Kelbris are equally scummy, the obvious lynch is the more experienced/polished player (Deas). The thing is that Prohawk has been ignoring how clearly not-town Deas is, but not in an obtuse way. It's been more avoidant than anything. The way he's pursued Kelbris and sidestepped Deas, has been so odd that it's made me question my read on Kelbris.

In the event of Deas red + Hawk not conf. town tomorrow, Hawk and Kelbris are my scum pool.

[havingfitz]

Mutant...what are your reads on DV and Kelbris?

[mutantdevle]

I’m thinking they are both scum. I’m more confident on DV than I am kelbris though. Kelbris had a sudden change of thought on DV recently which could be a decision to buss. Whilst I’m fairly confident DV will be today’s lynch, I’m not so sure kelbris’ fate is as solidified.

[Fishythefish]

Then let's put DV out of his misery.

[mutantdevle]

I’m waiting for ProHawk to answer my most recent question.

[ProHawk]

I don't know. I can't see past all of the noise of Kelbris being scum. If you put a gun to my head I would say DV town and boring-scum based on her hedging.

[ProHawk]

Deas red + Prohawk not conf. town = I'll have to choose between Kelbris and Prohawk.
Deas green + Prohawk conf. town = scum team is Fishy and Kelbris by POE. Will vote either.
Deas green + Prohawk not conf. town = voting Fishy

Like how does this even make sense?

If Deas is town and I am not confirmed, you would vote Fish? But if Deas is scum and I am not confirmed town, you would have to choose between Myself and Kelbris?????

Why not choose between Kelbris and Fish, or Myself and Fish if Deas is town?

[ProHawk]

I mean, if Deas an Kelbris are equally scummy, the obvious lynch is the more experienced/polished player (Deas). The thing is that Prohawk has been ignoring how clearly not-town Deas is, but not in an obtuse way. It's been more avoidant than anything. The way he's pursued Kelbris and sidestepped Deas, has been so odd that it's made me question my read on Kelbris.

In the event of Deas red + Hawk not conf. town tomorrow, Hawk and Kelbris are my scum pool.

Kelbris is MILES ahead of Deas in doing scummy things.

[mutantdevle]

Okay, updated reads of the pool:

Deas reads:

Kelbris - Scum
Boring - Scum
Fishy - Town
Hawk - Town

Hawk reads:

Kelbris - Scum
Boring - Scum
Deas - Town
Fishy - Town

Kelbris reads:

Deas - Scum
Hawk - Scum
Boring - Town
Fishy - Town

Boring reads:

Deas - Scum
Kelbris - Scum
Hawk - Scum
Fishy - Town

Fishy reads:

Deas - Scum
Kelbris - Scum
Hawk - Town
Boring - Town


Again, these lists are in order of most confident scum at the top and most confident town at the bottom.

[boring]

Deas red + Prohawk not conf. town = I'll have to choose between Kelbris and Prohawk.
Deas green + Prohawk conf. town = scum team is Fishy and Kelbris by POE. Will vote either.
Deas green + Prohawk not conf. town = voting Fishy

Like how does this even make sense?

If Deas is town and I am not confirmed, you would vote Fish? But if Deas is scum and I am not confirmed town, you would have to choose between Myself and Kelbris?????

Why not choose between Kelbris and Fish, or Myself and Fish if Deas is town?

I already explained that. I don't think you and kelbris are the scum team. One of you, probably, but not both.

[ProHawk]

So if we aren't both scum, then the remaining scum has to be Fish? Yeah, I guess that makes sense... ugh

[mutantdevle]

So if we aren't both scum, then the remaining scum has to be Fish? Yeah, I guess that makes sense... ugh

I kinda see it as reasonable. If the scum aren't those we consider obviously scum then perhaps those more in the background and less obviously scum like fish are the culprits. Though, I can't help thinking that if fish was scum then we'd have to go through too many misslynces before we realised and hence scum would win the game anyway.

[Fishythefish]

@boring: what makes you think ProHawk/kelbris is impossible?

All this talk of pairs is making me worried about DV flipping town.

[DeasVail]

Guys seriously just lynch me or don’t lynch me.

But lynching Kelbris would be ideal so I’ll ask again if we can do that.

[boring]

@boring: what makes you think ProHawk/kelbris is impossible?

All this talk of pairs is making me worried about DV flipping town.

Kelbris + Prohawk

= Kelbris, you're a nice guy, but I don't believe you subtle enough to fake this dynamic, and Prohawk's slot has had too much turnover. Just no.

Also, Prohawk would lose nothing from pushing Deas or me today instead, if Kelbris was his partner.

[boring]

@mutant - I'd prefer:
Deas - Scum
Kelbris - Scum/Null
Hawk - Scum/Null
Fishy - Town