Open 65 - Mini Love (Over!) before 578

[silence]

I confirm.

[silence]

I'm possibly away the next 2-3 days, Easter holiday

[silence]

where we sit in silence

Hi all. My first game other than newbie games. No discussion about the setup/strategy, is this beneficial for the town?

[silence]

Prod received. Didn't find anything worth drawing conclusions, I'll try to read more carefully later today.

Anyway I still wonder why there is no strategic discussion

[silence]

Whoa. Am I supposed to know who of the players like to be serious and who don't?

[silence]

To show you I'm serious, I claim doctor. Now, I expect 2 quick, consecutive lynches of Sethaniel and Yoshi, starting with mr.S.

Even if this did show seriousness, why should we believe your accusations correct? A doctor doesn't have any more information than a vanilla townie? And why would a doctor claim unforced and get himself lynched the following night?

[silence]

EBWOP: killed, not 'lynched'

[silence]

This is exactly why I claimed; so people like my bimbo wife wouldn't vote for me instead of Sethaniel.

Wouldn't it have been better to try to lynch Sethaniel without claiming and only claim if in danger of getting lynched?[/dice]

[silence]

Seems rather strange that ABR was left alive if he is the real doc.

[silence]

Why is ABR suddenly voting Jex when yesterday he wanted us to lynch Sethaniel after Yoshi?? His play makes no sense to me but apparently we still have to trust him if the real doctor doesn't come out.

About Sethaniel: what's the point of a vanilla townie claim? Shouldn't it make us only more interested in killing him - it doesn't prove that he isn't scum but at least he is not a powerrole...

[silence]

[ Also, I think I've said this before, but just because he might be the doc (or even if he was confirmed) doesn't mean he is 100% correct about who he says is scum, so we don't have to always trust him.

Sorry, bad wording on my part. By 'trust him' I meant only 'not lynch him', obviously a doc doesn't have any secret information.

[silence]

dahill: can you clarify a bit what information you think can be gained from a Korts lynch?

Anyway, I agree dahill's logic is questionable and Korts's twist suspicious, but I still think Sethaniel probably should be lynched today.

[silence]

Not satisfied with dahill1's post 285, still doesn't state what information exactly would be gained from a Korts lynch.

I don't know yet what to deduce about the lover claim, have to think a bit.

He's still the best play, but you're pretty good too, and with all the attention on you, I'm not likely to get a Seth lynch together.

Was there any hurry? Why not first try to argue for a Seth lynch, if you think that's the best play?

[silence]

You ought to focus exclusively on lynching scum. If you're right and Jex is a treacherous lover, her lover will figure it out before you do.

Why would this be so? The lover has no magic power anyway

Anyway, I don't understand why ABR sees Jex as scummy (and even less, how does he deduce that she is more likely to be the treacherous lover than the regular goon?)

[silence]

Hi, I am here, was a few days away. I'll read and comment today.

[silence]

How did Korts's 'gambit' get accepted? ABR: what is 'inherently scummy' if voting for bad reasons isn't?

A general questions: should we want to keep lovers alive and rather try to lynch the lone scum? Because then a lover massclaim would enable the town to win by lynching both lover pairs. If this logic is valid, dahill1 should be forced to claim his partner as it would do him/her no harm. But I'm not sure.

Related to that,

Mod:

Who wins if only the treacherous lover and his/her pair remain alive? Is it a tie as they both die?

[silence]

i say we just try and find any scum, whether that be lone scum or lover scum.

What is wrong in my logic, then?

i don't want to claim my partner, because i believe him/her to be town.

If you are both town and the scum kills your partner, we can identify the treacherous lover tomorrow, so the scum probably wouldn't kill your partner and thus claiming your partner does not do any harm.

I think for that reason we should force dahill1 to claim partner - it does not do any harm and that way we find out whether his claim was true.

Anyway, I admit my thinking may be flawed here, there is no hurry, I don't want him to claim partner before this is discussed/accepted.

[silence]

I agree the lover plan works on later days as well, and I did not suggest lynching dahill1 today.

But, my point was to suggest forcing dahill1 to claim his partner to validate his claim. If he is unable to claim (or get his claim verified), he is the regular goon and we catch him. If he is a lover (treacherous or not), then claiming did not do any harm, as discussed earlier.

[silence]

I think the decision between Korts's plan, variations of it (like forcing dahill to claim but leaving them alive) and just trying to find scum is not trivial and warrants more quantitative/theoretical analysis than just 'obv we want to lynch scum'.

I might do some analysis later but am a bit busy the next couple of days (real life time).

[silence]

Whyyy selfvote?

[silence]

Haven't yet made up my mind whether it's better to lynch a lover or scumhunt between non-lovers today. Was planning to do some probabilistic analysis over all possible scenarios but it turned out to be at little complicated.

Anyway, in both cases, dahill1 should really claim. If he doesn't understand this or is not posting, his partner can also claim.

[silence]

I'm sorry guys but I have asked for a replacement. I enjoyed playing this game but I recently had a death in the family and am getting replaced in all of my games in order to not drag them down. Good luck to all!

Sorry to hear about that.

I have been a bit busy and didn't have time to go through Coron's numbers but it seems to me that you omitted the possibility of us killing the confirmed loverpair today and them turning out to contain the treacherous lover (when the other lover pair will remain unknown).

[silence]

The talk about the other lover pair claiming is incredibly horrible. If we want to go ahead with the lover plan, the knowledge of the other lover pair is not needed today. The other option is to lynch someone among the non-lovers, which also does not need knowledge of the unknown lover pair (although they may have to claim if we accidentally accuse one of them).

Both cases, the knowledge of the lover pair is useless today, so it's obviously better to keep that information secret and decide tomorrow whether they should claim.

Eldarad's point about that we should force the mafia to kill the other lover pair sounds good, we save a day compared to that we lynch both lover pairs. However mafia can apply the same logic and try to force us to lynch a loverpair first. Which is another reason to keep the other loverpair secret. Based on this I currently believe our best plan is try to lynch the lone goon among the set of people not confirmed to be lovers/doc, and try to not out the other pair of lovers.

Has Kravhen been prodded? An extension to the deadline might be in order if he gets replaced?

[silence]

Ok, my attempt to crunch numbers (mathematically challenged). Rather quickly written and may well contain some errors or typos at least, and is probably difficult to read.


0. Introduction
---------------

Some of the main assumptions I make
- neither party has any reading skills, we have know idea who is scum and the mafia has no idea about the good lover pair, so all probabilites are just (favorable cases)/(all cases). Not too realistic but it would be rather difficult to come up with a realistic model of scumhunting accuracy

- mafia kills the doctor the following day

I compare only two strategies: executing the lover plan today vs. executing the lover plan tomorrow. Whether to keep lovers alive even tomorrow would warrant additional analysis, but this result already shows it is better to hunt today than execute the lover plan today, so the question whether some other future strategy would make hunting today even better is not relevant for deciding optimal actions for today.

Chapter 1 analyzes the lover plan, Chapter 2 the hunt-today-plan. Subsequent scenarios are analyzed in subchapters. In chapter 3 scenarios that occur in both plans are analyzed.

1. The lover plan
-----------------

Probability (1/2) of lynching the bad pair, after which we have tomorrow 4 townies, unknown loverpair and 1 goon - scenario 1.1. Value of this 0.5429

Probability (1/2) of lynching the good pair, after which we will lynch the bad pair, mafia kills townie, and day after tomorrow we have 3 townies and 1 goon. Value of this (1/3). (See chapter 3)

So, value of executing the lover plan today (1/2)*0.5429 + (1/2)*(1/3) = 0.4381

1.1. Scenario: 4 townies, unknown loverpair, 1 goon
-----------------------------------------------------
If we threaten a lover, they claim and we change target. So

Probability (1/5) of lynching the goon - we win.

Probability (2/7)(4/5) of outing the loverpair and then lynching a townie -> 2 townies, known loverpair, 1 goon
here we have (1/3) chance of lynching goon, mislynch leads to loss.

Probability (4/7) of lynching a townie without targeting a lover. -> 2 townies, unknown loverpair, 1 goon. This is analyzed in chapter 3.1. and has value 7/15

So value of this scenario (1/5)+(2/7)(4/5)(1/3)+(4/7)(7/15)=0.5429


2. Hunt today, execute lover plan tomorrow
--------------------------------------------

Probability (1/5) we lynch scum today - we win.

Probability (2/7)*(4/5)=(8/35) we out the unknown loverpair and lynch a townie -> starting tomorrow with 3 townies, 1 goon, lover pairs known. Scenario 2.1. Value of this is (1/3)

Probability (4/7) we lynch a townie without outing the unknown loverpair -> starting tomorrow with 3 townies, 1 goon, lover pair unknown. Scenario 2.2. Value of this is (28/75)

So total value of the plan of hunting today and executing lover plan tomorrow is (1/5) + (8/35)*(1/3) + (4/7)*(28/75) = 0.4895

2.1. Scenario: 3 townies, 1 goon, lover pair known, executing lover plan
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
With probability (1/2) we lynch the bad pair, after which mafia kills the good pair. We have 1 goon, 3 townies and thus value (1/3).

With probability (1/2) we lynch the good pair, after which mafia kills a townie. We have 1 goon, 2 townies, treacherous lover, good lover. This is a lynch or lose situation (otoh if we lynch the goon, we win). So value (1/3).

Both cases have a value of (1/3) so the value of the scenario is (1/3).

2.2. Scenario: 3 townies, 1 goon, lover pair unknown, executing lover plan
------------------------------------------------------
With probability (1/2) we lynch the good pair, scum kills a townie, we are in a lynch or lose situation with value (1/3)

With probabiltiy (1/2) we kill the bad pair, go to scenario 2.2.1 that has value 31/75

So total value (1/2)*(1/3) + (1/2)*(31/75) = 28/75

2.2.1. Scenario : 3 townies, 1 goon, lover pair unknown, NIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------------
With probability (2/5) mafia kills the lovers, after which we are in a 1 vs. 3 situation, value (1/3)

With probability (3/5) mafia kills a townie, after which we have 2 townies, 1 goon, 1 unknown loverpair, scenario 3.1. with value of (7/15)

Total value (2/5)*(1/3) + (3/5)*(7/15) = (31/75)


3. Other subgames
-------------------

1 goon against 2 townies is obviously 1/3.
1 goon against 3 townies is also 1/3, as we get a 1 vs 2 by nolynching

3.1. Scenario: 2 townies, 1 goon, 1 unknown loverpair
-------------------------------------------------------
with probability (1/3) we lynch the goon and win

with probability (2/5)*(2/3) we out the lovers and lynch a townie and therefore lose

with probability (2/5) we don't out the lovers, but mislynch, in the night 1 townie, loverpair and the goon, so we win with probability (1/3)

So value of this scenario is (1/3)+(1/3)*(2/5) = 7/15.

4. Conclusion
--------------

Value of plan 2 is higher than value of plan 1, so based on this analysis we should hunt today. Intuitively I guess that having better-than-random scumhunting chances improves the hunt plan more, so in reality the value difference is probably even larger.

[silence]

I wasn't convinced at all that Korts is the correct choice for hunting - don't think pushing the lover plan was obviously stupid/scummy even as I now believe the plan is not correct.

However, this tone of giving up in the latest post is pretty suggesting. I read it as that he isn't trying to find arguments that someone is more scummy, as he knows no-one is and the lover plan was his only hope.

So I currently plan to vote Korts. But I'll still do a reread+reconsideration before deadline.

[silence]

Deadline is approaching and unfortunately I don't have time for further considerations, so by my current position

Vote: Korts

[silence]

Argh. Why did the real doctor not claim earlier? (Now he probably shouldn't)

How does ABR claim to 'know' the real doctor?

Do we have any reason not to lynch ABR immediately?

[silence]

Whoops. I completely missed post 597. Probably should have understood from 595 too that it's a joke. But I did not expect to find jokes here.

I'm planning to do some probabilistic analysis again for lynching lovers vs. hunting (1 townie less, 1 confirmed townie), but am at work now, so later.

[silence]

He immediately assumes everything ABR just said was real, throws a question on how he knows the real doc, etc. etc. without even considering ABR is being an annoying ass as usual. Armlx even pointed it out.. that ABR had "history of that as town", so I'm not the only one familiar with his behavior.

As I already stated, I missed ABR's later post which would have implied even to me that he was joking. From the earlier post I genuinely thought he is claiming not to be doctor. Which I think would have been a good reason to lynch him, had it not been a joke. Yes, this is my first game with ABR.


About armlx's 'pseudo-vote', I see nothing 'wishy washy' about that. No reason to enable hammering before it has been discussed completely.

[silence]

Yayy!

Btw, why did you not kill the doc immediately?!