Open 701: Pick Yer Power X/Y Game Over!

[Chip Butty]

Back later. CK and Creature: If you're town, try to post something more intelligent.

[Viomi]

Texcat - 2
Northsidegal - 3
Assemblerotws - 4
CommKnight - 6
Mutantdevle - 8

MisaTange - 30 - Town

CityElectric - 5
Chip Butty - 5
Wilky - 7
Creature - 7
Lalendra - 7
Aster - 1

Pisskop - 1 - Town

Viomi - 1

I have an idea of narrowing down scum, but it's completely gut for now and it's something maybe only I would do. But it's interesting scum didn't aim at someone who was higher up on the list for a better chance to kill a PR. My theory? Scum in the top 5 people. They don't want to narrow it down for some reason but still want to kill the mid-tier players to snipe out any PRs that got through.

I'm thinking we look more into Chip and City today. 5 is a sweet spot for scum to pick a number. So my bet? 1 town, 1 scum, right there.

Lol and of course 6 is way different from 5.

5 is a sweet spot for scum to pick a number.

Yeah, I've had that feeling one of them had to be scum.

You get scummer almost with every post.

100% agree with chip on both of these.

[Viomi]

Hey guys, when I inevitably get mislynched or NK'd and going through my ISO, remember this: Chip Butty is definitely town.

[Lalendra]

Hey guys, when I inevitably get mislynched or NK'd and going through my ISO, remember this: Chip Butty is definitely town.

Not that I necessarily disagree, but why are you so sure?

This is my first PYP; is it common for the numbers to play a large role in gamesolving? I figured that it would be more like a traditional game, in terms of post analysis and associatives, but it seems like the draft order and the numbers people picked are factoring into not only setup spec but also NK spec.

[Creature]

Back later. CK and Creature: If you're town, try to post something more intelligent.

Why didn't scum attack someone higher than MisaTange?

[Aster]

Back later. CK and Creature: If you're town, try to post something more intelligent.

Why didn't scum attack someone higher than MisaTange?

An excellent question. Now how about you use some of your bountiful intelligence to answer it as well? Or is your brilliance better used by just shoving the actual scumhunting to others?

---

Actually, how about I answer it too.

Reading through Misa's ISO, he did generate a moderate amount of statements. Neither a huge contributor nor an useless lurker. Given the rampant amount of inactivity, I'd put him above average, actually. He thought PK was antitown but not scum, was suspicious of mutant, Creature and me.

He's nowhere among the main pushers against the mutant/Creature bandwagon, and I'm just going to ignore his last target. It seems unlikely that Misa was killed because the mafia percieved him as a danger or because they wanted to frame somebody, so I think that the kill was motivated by one of the following:

1. The mafia wanted a confusing kill to confuse town;
   
2. There are lots of scum among the five players above Misa, and scum didn't want to wield out all the townies;
   
3. There were no viable target higher on the list than Misa.

In the first case, there's nothing town can learn, so I won't pay attention to in in the rest of this post. Point 2 and 3 do actually both suggest that there is a fair amount of scum above Misa. Let's think about why players #1–5 weren't killed if we assume they are town:

• Texcat: being the first player in the list and therefore an obvious target, the mafia may have strayed from him because they're scared of the doctor and/or watcher?
  
• Northside: maybe still scared of the doctor? Alternatively, maybe texcat is scum and they were afraid killing the second-ranking player would make town wonder why mafia didn't go after texcat?
  
• Assembler: is inactive. Maybe the scum would like to keep inactives in the game?
  
• CommKnight: not sure. Not very active, but seems active enough to be considered a target if scum was out for powerroles. Possible scum?
  
• Mutant: given the amount of bad attention this guy has gotten yesterday, killing mutant would be a stupid move regardless of whether he is scum.

In particular Northside and CommKnight look suspicious. Northside definitely passes the contributory standards to be considered for nightkilling, and has solid chances at having a powerrole. Aside from possibly being protected by the doctor, I'm a bit curious why she wasn't targetted.

CommKnight, further down the list, definitely doesn't look like he was going to be protected by the doctor. He wasn't a huge contributor, but he isn't too far below Misa. Comm also went after Creature and Mutant. It does appear unlikely to me that the mafia would move their kill two spots down merely on the difference in contributiveness between them.

[texcat]

Viomi, Can you give us a link to your previous pick your power game?

[mutantdevle]

So I just went through different PYP games to see if I could find which one Viomi was in and I couldn't find any. What surprised me more, however, was that I found Creature's name on a player list.

@Creature, how come you haven't told us you've played one of these games before?

[wilky]

So I just went through different PYP games to see if I could find which one Viomi was in and I couldn't find any. What surprised me more, however, was that I found Creature's name on a player list.

@Creature, how come you haven't told us you've played one of these games before?

I don't see why he would need to tell us he'd played it before? There

could

be some scum intentions behind it but I doubt it tbh.

I do still think creature is scum though.

pisskop flipping town should give more info, hopefully we attack the players that have been coasting a lot (like CityElectric, Lalendra).

Or players that haven't brought the game forward at all or even tried to (like Creature).

VOTE: Creature

[Creature]

Or players that haven't brought the game forward at all or even tried to (like Creature).

I was voting Aster and CommKnight, which is bringing the game forward rather than parking on mutant or pisskop the entire day.

[Creature]

@Creature, how come you haven't told us you've played one of these games before?

Didn't feel the need to. It isn't rocket science.

[Creature]

An excellent question. Now how about you use some of your bountiful intelligence to answer it as well? Or is your brilliance better used by just shoving the actual scumhunting to others?

Oh sure, I was giving you CommKnight and even Viomi, but you still insisted on just parking on mutant or pisskop.

CityElectric, Lalendra, northsidegal and Viomi are like the most generic players and scum are usually generic. Sheeping others and not having unique opinions is a good way to stay under the radar.

[mutantdevle]

Creature, you defending me makes more sense now that I've read some of your previous game in this setup.

Creature was shot night 3 in his last game because he was second in the draft list and hence most likely to be a PR. So it makes sense that he would understand my logic.

[Viomi]

So I just went through different PYP games to see if I could find which one Viomi was in and I couldn't find any. What surprised me more, however, was that I found Creature's name on a player list.

@Creature, how come you haven't told us you've played one of these games before?

It was on a different account. I'll pull it up.

[Creature]

Creature, you defending me makes more sense now that I've read some of your previous game in this setup.

Creature was shot night 3 in his last game because he was second in the draft list and hence most likely to be a PR. So it makes sense that he would understand my logic.

I'm not defending you because of what happened at that game, I'm defending you because I genuinely think it wasn't a scum attempt to rolefish.

[Viomi]

Back later. CK and Creature: If you're town, try to post something more intelligent.

Why didn't scum attack someone higher than MisaTange?

An excellent question. Now how about you use some of your bountiful intelligence to answer it as well? Or is your brilliance better used by just shoving the actual scumhunting to others?

---

Actually, how about I answer it too.

Reading through Misa's ISO, he did generate a moderate amount of statements. Neither a huge contributor nor an useless lurker. Given the rampant amount of inactivity, I'd put him above average, actually. He thought PK was antitown but not scum, was suspicious of mutant, Creature and me.

He's nowhere among the main pushers against the mutant/Creature bandwagon, and I'm just going to ignore his last target. It seems unlikely that Misa was killed because the mafia percieved him as a danger or because they wanted to frame somebody, so I think that the kill was motivated by one of the following:

1. The mafia wanted a confusing kill to confuse town;
   
2. There are lots of scum among the five players above Misa, and scum didn't want to wield out all the townies;
   
3. There were no viable target higher on the list than Misa.

In the first case, there's nothing town can learn, so I won't pay attention to in in the rest of this post. Point 2 and 3 do actually both suggest that there is a fair amount of scum above Misa. Let's think about why players #1–5 weren't killed if we assume they are town:

• Texcat: being the first player in the list and therefore an obvious target, the mafia may have strayed from him because they're scared of the doctor and/or watcher?
  
• Northside: maybe still scared of the doctor? Alternatively, maybe texcat is scum and they were afraid killing the second-ranking player would make town wonder why mafia didn't go after texcat?
  
• Assembler: is inactive. Maybe the scum would like to keep inactives in the game?
  
• CommKnight: not sure. Not very active, but seems active enough to be considered a target if scum was out for powerroles. Possible scum?
  
• Mutant: given the amount of bad attention this guy has gotten yesterday, killing mutant would be a stupid move regardless of whether he is scum.

In particular Northside and CommKnight look suspicious. Northside definitely passes the contributory standards to be considered for nightkilling, and has solid chances at having a powerrole. Aside from possibly being protected by the doctor, I'm a bit curious why she wasn't targetted.

CommKnight, further down the list, definitely doesn't look like he was going to be protected by the doctor. He wasn't a huge contributor, but he isn't too far below Misa. Comm also went after Creature and Mutant. It does appear unlikely to me that the mafia would move their kill two spots down merely on the difference in contributiveness between them.

VOTE: Northside

[Viomi]

That quote plus vote = I agree with Aster and think we should look at Northside or CommKnight today

[Lalendra]

Not a fan really of the way Viomi is interacting. Just really seems like they're not putting a lot of critical thought into the process. I'm not so sure I buy scum!creature just yet, the failure to tell us whether he played a PYP in the past doesn't seem inherently scummy to me. Mutant is also becoming less scummy as time goes on; not necessarily that the rolefishing seems less scummy to me, moreso that nothing since then has pinged me as scummy and I'm no longer convinced that the question in and of itself was scummy. I guess Mutant is null for now. I would definitely like to hear more from Comm and NSG but not sure I'm willing to call them "suspicious" just yet.

VOTE: viomi

[mutantdevle]

I did a search for 'pick your power' games on this forum which gave the following 8 results other than this game:


I have analysed each of these games and recorded data and statistics regarding the draft order, role choices and night kills. I'm not going to be releasing this information as I think it would be a bad idea for scum to know it because, if they did, then they would be able to make themselves less predictable. Besides, I doubt very many of you would take statistics as a reason to vote but it WILL be something that influences my opinion. Based on these statistics, I have a FoS on people that I won't name yet. However, the data backs up my reads on a certain individual who I also will not name yet.

I won't be using this data as the basis of my reads but rather I will be using them to back my reads up. As a side note for the future, if you don't believe statistics and data can be used to predict how players are going to act or be as scum or town, then don't ask me to clarify any statements about it in the future if I ever say things like "statistically X is scum". Because if you think those kinds of reasons are invalid then just ignore my statements involving them instead of asking me to try and convince you of my opinion involving them.

[CityElectric]

@mod (and the rest of the thread, I guess): I'm gonna be V/LA from today until the 16th. Gonna have to focus on uni and the wild deadlines that sprung at me today for a bit.

[Lalendra]

Mutant, you're more dedicated to the game of mafia than I am to anything in life.

That said, do you think it's possible that there are games that don't contain "Pick Your Power" in the title which may be throwing off your statistics? Also how do replacements, inactivity due to RL circumstances, etc. factor in? I do believe that statistics and meta are valuable but I feel like there are a variety of other, far less predictable forces at play that make it nigh impossible to always accurately predict how a player will behave in a given scenario.

[Lalendra]

Personally I struggle with meta because while some things are meta tells, calling it out basically either tells the person "okay good, I should keep doing what I'm doing" or "shit, they're on to me, better change it up" so I appreciate your approach of not just laying it all out there right away. I will, however, be interested to see how you use the data to substantiate your claims as the game progresses.

[mutantdevle]

Yeah, I'm way to addicted to this game :3

And also there are some things that throw the statistics a bit. Obviously, I doubt I have stats from every game on this site recorded. But in general, the more PYP games there are, the more accurate these statistics will be. I reckon I can probably find some more of the game on the wiki and incorporate that into the data if I get time.

Replacements don't really affect much, to be honest. I guess the sudden change in opinions may affect the specific game but I don't think it affects the game much. The biggest anomaly in my data is that I couldn't find the scum chat for one of the games. Hence I can't record the reason why a night kill was made. There's also times when there is one scum left so I stop getting an explanation for kills. Finally, some games don't list the roles that players chose. So if they didn't die, I don't know. Despite all this, it's not really something that I'm going to factor into the data. I feel like the data will be too inaccurate anyway to factor in things like that. Like I say, I don't plan to base my reads and actions directly on the data, more so to back up my thoughts or guide me. Eg. convert scum leans to scum reads and town leans to town reads. It could also be useful for deciding who to use a night action on if stuck between 1 person or another. Also, if someone role claims as a statistically scummy role, and data points to other aspects of their play being scummy, then that may also influence a read.

I've never actually gone into meta to such an extent as this before. I suppose the difference here though is that I can use this data for any future games of this setup I play (it could also help me choose a draft number or role, kek).

[northsidegal]

CityElectric, Lalendra, northsidegal and Viomi are like the most generic players and scum are usually generic. Sheeping others and not having unique opinions is a good way to stay under the radar.

generic

? i haven't sheeped a single person this game – everyone else sheeped me. i'm still confident that i caught scum at the start of the day yesterday, but this is just a flat out lie.

VOTE: creature

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Boom