Open 701: Pick Yer Power X/Y Game Over!

[CommKnight]

The lynch is staying below Misa's point on the draft order. There's probably scum above her, but we'd be outing our PRs by forcing people to claim.

Want to dispute it? Bring the cop checks to back it up. If not, we continue low on the list and aim for the people who tried to get high in the order pick and failed.

VOTE: Chip I have no clue what Viomi sees in Chip. But it's likely scum.

Your reasoning is flawed and you give no reason for your scumread on Chip.

Also, you even admit that there's probably scum higher on the list but still insist on voting lower? We have protectives, as well..

Edit: texcat is dumb damn. rip intellect

It's sly, but it's there.

[Creature]

No sure if I can do anything more today, but Viomi's wagon is over.

[Aster]

I'll hold off my opinion on Viomi for now. The entire bandwagon she tried to push is madness, but I don't see why scum would push a bandwagon this senseless. It kinda reminds me of the mutant business yesterday, with the exception that mutant was trying way harder to be helpful. At any rate, I don't feel like putting her on L-1 for now.

Also, I don't like CommKnight's isistence to avoid lynching players from the top five positions. Sure, powerroles are likely there, but the scum there will likely have powerroles as well, making them more valuable. I do think that town powerroles are more valuable than scum powerroles, but I wouldn't refuse to lynch among the top is it happened that the top players are the scummiest. If we refrain from lynching most-likely-scum and end up lynching vanilla townies instead, the town isn't helped at all.

---

I have data from 8/10 of the completed pick your power games on this forums (wiki says 11 games but 1 was abandoned). Of those 8 games, in 4 of them, scum chose the number 1. Since we have 2 players left who chose 1, that's technically a 1 in 4 chance that Viomi is scum if we are going on the number she chose alone.

I think this math is slightly flawed. Conditional probabilities are tricky.

From 8 completed games, in 4 of them had the mafia chosen the number "1". This means that the chance for scum to pick the number "1" can be roughtly estimated at 4/8 = 1/2, and please remember that's only an

estimate

. I'll now pretend that the estimate of 1/2 is the actual probability because we don't have anything better to work with.

At the start of the game, there were three players who picked the number "1", so from a generic player's perspective, conditioned on there being a scum among the 1s, each of them has 1/3 chance of being mafia. Then the probability that a player who sent in "1" (say Viomi) is mafia can be computed as

P(Viomi is scum)= P(Viomi is scum | there is scum among the 1s) * P(there is a scum among the 1s) = 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6

But that was at the start of the game. We have now obtained new information: pisskop, one of the 1s, was lynched and flipped town. Now it may intuitively look like the initial chance of 1/2 to have scum among the 1s can be redistributed over the two survivors, but that is wrong.

An extreme example

I'll use a more extreme example to intuitively demonstrate why it's wrong. Suppose this game had a whole lot more players and we knew scum would flip a coin and send in a "1" if it flips heads, and would not send in "1" if it flips tails. Suppose that a million players ended up sending in the number "1", giving each of them an initial chance of 1 in two million to be scum. Next suppose we randomly lynched 999999 of those, and they all appeared to be townies.

Would you say that the chance there was scum amongst those million players is still 1/2 and the last standing player has chance 1/2 to be scum? What situation sounds likelier? That the scum flipped heads and we randomly lynched 999999 townies before only a single scum was left, or that the scum flipped tails and town had been lynching from a pool of only townies? The first event has chance 1/2 * 1/1000000 = 1/2000000 of happening, and the latter has chance 1/2 of happening. The latter situation is overwhelmingly more likely: scum flipped tails.

Back to our current game

Pisskop was

randomly

lynched (i.e. it wasn't a NK that was guaranteed to yield a townie) and flipped town. This infuences the probability that there is still scum among the "1"s. The definition of conditional probability tells us:

P(there is scum in the "1"s | a randomly lynched "1" flips town) = P(there is scum among the "1"s AND a randomly lynched "1" flips town) / P(a randomly lynched "1" flips town)

The probability that a randomly lynched "1" flips town can be computed as:

P(a randomly lynched "1" flips town) = P(a randomly lynched "1" flips town | there is scum among the "1"s) * P(there is scum among the "1"s) + P(a randomly lynched "1" flips town | there is no scum among the "1"s) * P(there is no scum among the "1"s) = 2/3 * 1/2 + 1 * 1/2 = 5/6

Ergo:

P(there is scum in the "1"s | a randomly lynched "1" flips town) = P(there is scum among the "1"s AND a randomly lynched "1" flips town) / P(a randomly lynched "1" flips town) = (1/2 * 2/3) / (5/6) = 2/5

Bayes' theorem

The above is pretty much an application of Bayes' theorem using only elementary probability theory. Bayes' theorem is an useful tool widely used in forensics, so I recommend looking it up if you aren't familar with it already. For those who are familar with it, one can compute the above probabilities more easily by applying it directly in the following way:

P(there is scum in the "1"s | a randomly lynched "1" flips town) = P(a randomly lynched "1" flips town | there is scum amongst the "1"s) * P(there is scum amongst the "1"s) / P(a randomly lynched "1" flips town) = 2/3 * 1/2 / (5/6) = 2/5

Conclusion

Right now, there is only a (base) chance of 2/5 to have scum among the 1s, and both me and Viomi each have a probability of 1/5 to be scum from a generic bystander's perpective. Moreover, if I or Viomi were to die and flip town, then the last standing player would have chance 1/4 to be scum.

The above does not factor in how scummy players act, which can modify the probability that they are scum. The above does not apply when players from a group die by nightkill: nightkills are guaranteed to hit townies, so they do not impact the probability of having scum among a group (unless they killed the last survivor; also, that does not account for the question "why would scum kill players from their own number group?")

[Chip Butty]

Can you give us the tl;dr? Who is scum? That's what matters. It's exactly this kind of peripheral waffle that made me suspect you earlier.

[mutantdevle]

Can you give us the tl;dr? Who is scum? That's what matters. It's exactly this kind of peripheral waffle that made me suspect you earlier.

Just read the conclusion...


I also think it’s dangerous when folks are unprepared to read a lot since it means they miss out on information and become ill informed. You’re the type of player we constantly have to waste time repeating ourselves to and explain things over and over again. Honestly, it’s a pain in the ass.

[Viomi]

The lynch is staying below Misa's point on the draft order. There's probably scum above her, but we'd be outing our PRs by forcing people to claim.

Want to dispute it? Bring the cop checks to back it up. If not, we continue low on the list and aim for the people who tried to get high in the order pick and failed.

VOTE: Chip I have no clue what Viomi sees in Chip. But it's likely scum.

Your reasoning is flawed and you give no reason for your scumread on Chip.

Also, you even admit that there's probably scum higher on the list but still insist on voting lower? We have protectives, as well..

Edit: texcat is dumb damn. rip intellect

It's sly, but it's there.

So.. I asked you why you refuse to lynch higher on the list, you refused to answer and that makes me scummy somehow? I'm not following.

[Creature]

Status: Ignoring maths.

[Viomi]

Like, are you forgetting that while yes, people higher on the list are more likely to be PRs, that doesn't mean they're more likely to be TOWN PRs, right?

And yet again you manage to miss my question entirely: Why me over the others who were expressing similar sentiments?

[texcat]

@mod the votecount is wrong, i'm not voting viomi

catching up now.

@mod,

but I am voting viomi (604)

So I think that is still L-1.

[texcat]

No sure if I can do anything more today, but Viomi's wagon is over.

No, Viomi is at L-1. That is hardly over. Quit trying to protect your buddy.

[Creature]

Sure, I'm aways protecting my buddies...

[Lalendra]

No sure if I can do anything more today, but Viomi's wagon is over.

No, Viomi is at L-1. That is hardly over. Quit trying to protect your buddy.

Yeah I don't like that post at all. Clearly the wagon is far from over, we're still in the middle of discussing it, what on earth would make you say that unless you're just trying to persuade people to look elsewhere with no real reasoning?

[Elmo TeH AzN]

@mod the votecount is wrong, i'm not voting viomi

catching up now.

@mod,

but I am voting viomi (604)

So I think that is still L-1.

Fixed at least the texcat vote. I'll do an updated VC when I get home. It is L-1 still.

[wilky]

Sure, I'm aways protecting my buddies...

Nice try Scum.

[mutantdevle]

Sure, I'm aways protecting my buddies...

Nice try Scum.

Are you actually interpreting that post literally?

[Lalendra]

It sounds like he's interpreting it as sarcasm, as it was intended, but not buying it.

[Viomi]

No sure if I can do anything more today, but Viomi's wagon is over.

No, Viomi is at L-1. That is hardly over. Quit trying to protect your buddy.

Yeah I don't like that post at all. Clearly the wagon is far from over, we're still in the middle of discussing it, what on earth would make you say that unless you're just trying to persuade people to look elsewhere with no real reasoning?

No, he's right. It's over because the rest of town who isn't voting me aren't dumb enough to blind sheep without contributing reasons or information.

[Viomi]

Speaking of which, Lalendra and Texcat, I've already replied to the shit reasons given for voting me- Are you going to discuss that? Say why you voted? Or are you just going to continue being useless?

[Creature]

"Viomi's wagon is over" as "I'm ending this wagon"

[CommKnight]

You can't end a wagon you aren't even on Creature. Viomi is being lynched and if she flips scum, you're next.

[Viomi]

You can't end a wagon you aren't even on Creature. Viomi is being lynched and if she flips scum, you're next.

Lmao, you going to respond to me or read my posts?

[wilky]

"Viomi's wagon is over" as "I'm ending this wagon"

el oh el

[Viomi]

You are being very, very anti-town right now. You're either scum or playing so hard against your wincon it doesn't make sense, CK.

[Viomi]

Same for you wilky, your tiny one line commentary posts are useless. Are you going to play the game now? It's in the rules that you have to play to win, you know.

[Viomi]

Like, seriously. If you're so intent on me being scum, make a fucking case! Give reasons for me to reply to, so we can generate information and see relationships between players so town can analyze them in the future. Stop this anti-town caseless wagoning and stop playing into scum's hands.