Open 703: Masons and Mafia Town Win!

[havingfitz]

VOTE: TwoInAMillion

What are the odds?

[havingfitz]

11 is one of my favorite numbers

VOTE: havingfitz

VOTE: Hongzi

Get off the hero that won the previous game for the town (as in the last game we played together, not the same setup)

VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Didn't like post 21. Encouraging town to fakeclaim enables the option of scum claiming mason and not getting cc'd as real masons won't know if fakeclaims are town or scum.

[havingfitz]

Why would masons try to fakeclaim?

Who suggested that?

[havingfitz]

Why would masons try to fakeclaim?

Who suggested that?

I mean why would masons try to counterclaim. Sorry.

If they had reason to think a fakeclaim was coming from scum they might. A 1 for 1 mason v scum claim off would benefit town as long as it's not a lylo situation.

[havingfitz]

I don't think counterclaiming is needed. If masons all see someone's counterclaim as scummy, they will just wagon that shit.

I'd think that would be some obvious mason tells to scum.

[havingfitz]

I don't think counterclaiming is needed. If masons all see someone's counterclaim as scummy, they will just wagon that shit.

I'd think that would be some obvious mason tells to scum.

Like counterclaiming mason is any different lmao

That's a 1v1 and outs 1 mason vs "

they

will just wagon that shit" and perhaps out more than one. Lmao

[havingfitz]

@hem...if you suspected someone and they claimed mason would you continue to push for their lynch if they weren't cc'd?

[havingfitz]

If the people I read as town unvote, I will. And so should you.

I wouldn't support an un-cc'd mason wagon.

[havingfitz]

If a mason claims, he's dead anyway.

I think your POV of this game is coming from a different win-con but I'm not sure yet.

hem...

Normally a fake claim would come from scum under duress. A fakemasonclaimingscum might expect to survive unless/until a real mason decided to cc. Which I would argue...a mason should claim for the 1 for 1 exchange of scum and mason which imo results in advantage town.

Enter Gamma's suggestion...VTs should claim mason. This puts the real masons into the quandary of deciding whether a fake claim is from a VT or scum. Masons don't know which it is. They can't discuss amongst themselves because there are no PTs per the mod. Do they cc to get into a 1v1 potentially with a VT? Do they "just wagon that shit" and possibly lynch a VT? All the while helping scum narrow in on them. Under Gamma's suggestion masons should be more likely to not CC and should be LESS likely to "wagon that shit."

How is encouraging VTs to fakeclaim going to help town if it could either result in masons unnecessarily claiming OR provide an umbrella of uncertainty for scum to possibly claim mason and get further in the game?

I see no advantage to encouraging VTs to claim mason (to trick scum into shooting them) when at the same time it opens up the possibility of scum safely fakeclaiming mason to save their ass.

What Gamma's suggestion has also done imo is made a situation where a real mason might feel the need to claim less valid. Under Gamma's suggestion why should town suspect of a player believe a real mason claim?

I'm open to being convinced otherwise but I do not see any value atp in suggesting VTs should fake claim. It's not going to entice scum to shoot said mason claimer (unless scum are idiots) and it only adds fogs up the claim for town.

So please elaborate on how my thought process is off and how my wincon pov is different from yours?

[havingfitz]

Un-cc'd masons can still be scum.

Possibly....but I'm never voting an un-cc'd mason claim.

[havingfitz]

I'm not a fan of the Comm plan.

No guarantees both people brought to L-1 will be scum. And as long as one (or both) of them aren't scum...the potential exists for the person hammering (regardless of their alignment) picking the wrong wagon to hammer.

What happens if one of the L-1 wagons is town and the hammerer mislynches? Are they held accountable for the mislynch? Does the person who wasn't hammered get paired up again the next day?

If one of the pair put to L-1 is a mason do they reveal so?

I'm all for figuring out ways to find scum that take the guesswork out of things but I'm not seeing how this is a good plan.

Also...odds of picking both scum for the pair are 4/13 * 1/4. I.e. 4/52 OR 1/13. So just under 8% odds.

I'm heading out for holiday stuff and will be

v/LA until Monday.

Will chime in if/when I get the opportunity.

[havingfitz]

UNVOTE: until I have a chance to read/review the game through the weekend.

[havingfitz]

Typed this up yesterday but couldn't post. Was right after jz died. Will catch up this morning on game since jz died.
--------------------------------
Caught up reading this morning and then RL got in the way. Was trying to put thoughts to post when noticed scum committed suicide.

Too bad we do not know who jz flinched on. Confirmed town would be nice.

I could see scum being on the jzhenson wagon. Though I was tr'ing Hongzi and slight leaning town on Almost. So that would leave hem. Which could be the case.

I was/am up in the air a bit on Gamma. Not sure they've done anything that townish in the game up to this point and still want to ISO him...but jzhenson's willingness to allow Gamma to be at the brink of being lynched (albeit it only L-1 for a few minutes between posts 213-217) doesn't seem like the level of bussing scum would want to do D1 if it can be helped.

I still plan on getting a catch up post up by tomorrow but here's where my head's at at the moment:

tr - Hongzi, mozamis
lean town - rb, CommKnight, TIAM, A50
needs sorting - Mawhrinskel.........Gamma
suspects - wavemode, Junko, hem

[havingfitz]

OK...read up 4-5 pages from the jz death.

I was a bit tentative on A50 because I felt it wasn't the A50 I was used to. Making a lot of jokes...just getting a different feel from him. My read this morning has been the A50 I am used to. He joins Hongzi and mozamis as a top town read.

That said...I disagree that jz was likely to shoot Gamma and therefore Gamma is 95% confirmed town. jz could have seen something from someone that made him think he was hitting a mason. Regardless of what he may have thought Gamma was...why shoot someone who is a frontrunner to be lynched day 1? And there is the slimmer chance Gamma is scum as well (thought less likely after the jz death than before).

So I'm inclined to let Gamma stay alive for VCA reasons rather than for "I think jz shot him" reasons.

[havingfitz]

fitz, look at that VCA again. Jz started hopped off the Gamma wagon. Instead of voting his counterwagon, he started another wagon on Junkochan

Agreed...if jz and Gamma were both scum it makes sense that he'd get off Gamma.

But likewise and more telling imo is that jz kept supporting the L-2 Gamma wagon for longer than I think scum would bus for on D1. A span of 80 posts over 3 pages during which time I believe jz posted a few times.

Additionally ..I think L-2 scum!Gamma takes a shot as scum (or fakeclaims mason). I don't think scum!Gamma just let's his wagon roll over him without a fight.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: wavemode

this is who we should lynch

Hey why is wavemode scummy?

[havingfitz]

Why is this not relevant information?

I agree, it IS very relevant infomation. Scum love to bus for a bit, for distancing, and then get off the wagon. "soft bussing".
Come on guys, we're letting scum slip away here.

Where's your vote?

[havingfitz]

In case we have a wagon get close to lynch....

mod...do jz's partners have to wait until the next day to use their kills? Or can more than one scum shoot in a given day? Ala OK corral.

[havingfitz]

F!

In case we have a wagon get close to lynch....

mod...do jz's partners have to wait until the next day to use their kills? Or can more than one scum shoot in a given day? Ala OK corral.

[havingfitz]

@fitz: When I asked about the Scum shots I was told they can shoot any number of times a any given time.

Did you ask in game or privately?

[havingfitz]

^

[havingfitz]

VC

.

sorry for not making a VC yet today
I'll get one (and the previous one) once I eat dinner

.

.

Fail.

[havingfitz]

I was surprised last night to see TIAM 1) was scum and 2) had taken a shot. Both he and jz weren't at the brink of being lynched so it wasn't for those reasons.

Mawrinskel is L-2

...before I consider putting him at L-1 (or hammering) what's the case on him? From the one game I have with Goedel iirc he's pretty lynchbaity. We have several mislynches to spare though so if we get it wrong on him it's no big deal.

My top two town reads are still mozamis and Hongzi. A50 probably right behind them.

I think rb is town.

I think CommKnight is probably town.

wavemode could still be scum. Getting to L-2 only to have scum take a shot at a prospective mason (and clear the votecounts either way) does not eliminate anyone on the wavemode wagon (or Gamma's from pre-jz suicide).

I think the final two scum are in wavemode, Junko, Gamma, HEM and Skel.

I'm good voting Skel once I see if his case has legs to it (later this morning/today if I'm not beat to it).

[havingfitz]

I'm town because the wagon on me was utter ass. Anyone competent could see that even before the TIAM flip

If it was utter ass...who was scum on it? Just TIAM with the 5th vote near the end? Or was your wagon town driven? In which case you are absolutely in no way cleared.

[havingfitz]

And the best thing is he didn't get to shoot anyone

Your count is right. Unless shots are timestamped and scum sent one in. If scum sent a shot in since the mod last logged in it should negate votes I would think. Who knows when the mod will check in.

[havingfitz]

If it is going to night I hope it's just symbolic and the next day proceeds immediately.

[havingfitz]

10:33 am est. (Skel hammer)
10:46 am est. I ask mod a question about dayvig's negating lynches (unbeknownst to me Skel had been hammered at this point)
12:14 pm est mod responds.
2:02 pm est (mod flips Skel)

So almost four hours from the Skel hammer to his flip. OK...

I start to get a wagon on me.

@ 4:17pm est I send in dayvig from my car in a mall parking lot. (It was a toss up between Junko and mozamis. I went with mozamis as a Junko wagon at some point might potentially get traction...plus I was more confident in mozamis and he wasn't getting lynched).

I'm out doing some Christmas and grocery shopping and not about/able to hover over my phone.

@ 4:24pm est mod flips mozamis.

Fcuking great! We wait almost four hours for Skel to flip and at the least opportune time...moz gets flipped 7 fcuking minutes after I send in his kill.

Between 4:29 and 4:33pm est I get flash lynched.

Did I mention I was shopping. Fcuk.

So I had the masons pegged. I tried to scream at Skel to vig someone before he was lynched.

Mawrionskel is L-2

----------------
My top two town reads are still mozamis and Hongzi. A50 probably right behind them.

If I had not had the vote count off by one I probably would have sent in a dayvig to save Skel's neck. Fcuk me.

If I had not been AFK I would have dayvigged (as my wagon warranted) Hongzi, A50 and Junko in order.

That would have left me to deal with wavemode, HEM, Gamma, CommKnight and rb. Even then I suspect I would not have been successful.

Fcuk.

So great job town. Well done.

Modding could have been a little more consistent IMO. Also...I think in future iterations of this game it might be nice if after every flip there was a period of time (some number of hours....3 or 4 etc) before the thread re-opens so that players actions/lives aren't at the mercy of when the mod gets around to posting a flip. As I said...I don't think it would have changed the result of this game but it would have been cool to dayvig all the masons in a row to at least give myself a chance.

As for my partners...WTF? Why did the first two of you (jz and TIAM) dayvig when you did? We needed mislynches to reduce the masonpool. jz...you were L-4 (tied with Gamma) and Gamma was still a strong contender for the first lynch.

TIAM...you had just had a SECOND vote placed on you. wavemode was L-2 and very likely going to wind up the lynch (Skel and I weren't voting anyone atm). WTF? I don't think either of your targets were terrible choices at that point in the game....but I just do not think they were necessary. No need to risk shots and die if there is a chance a townie is getting lynched with not risk to you. exhale.....

And Skel apparently being AFK the entire morning without at least taking a shot before he died is another missed opportunity.

fcukfcukfcukfcuk.

lol....once again...great job town

[havingfitz]

AFK happens

[havingfitz]

Yeah...if he's not hammered before I hear back from the mod I shoot moz and Skel lasts a bit longer. Or maybe he gets a shot off.

It was a game of minutes.

[havingfitz]

No offense intended Goedel...but I think your list would have only helped partners in the event you'd targetted town to help us know who you shot. Something I don't think jz or TIAM did.

I thought TIAM may have targetted rb but I didn't try figuring out who jz killed.

[havingfitz]

Damn...now you're posting like it's going out of style. Bleh