Open 703: Masons and Mafia Town Win!

[CommKnight]

^ This is to everyone talking about faking being a mason. Congrats on making sure scum don't fall for it. Should give yourselves a pat on the back.

[CommKnight]

Since you guys don't seem to understand the set-up fully and already fucked one plan completely, let's get this out onto the table.

There are NO night kills. Masons and Mafia cannot talk with each other. They may leave hints in some of their posts that the other members of their team will be more observant of.

We can actually force the mafia's hand. Pick one person to be hammer and pick two people to be at L1. If one or both are scum, they'll be forced to use their daykill attempt or completely risk being lynched without attempting one.

We ensure this method works because anyone who steps outside of two people to put at L1 is immediately lynched the next day, no waiting period, no time for scum to decide to attempt their daykills to kill masons, they get lynched for mishammering.

Any objections?

[CommKnight]

"Daykill: At any time in the game, you may PM the moderator a daykill attempt. If that player is a Mason they will die. If the player is a Townie, the kill backfires and you will suicide."

^ My bad, I assume all day-kill abilities are 1-shot and the way it's worded, it's like, it either fails or succeeds, but that's the attempt and it's done and over with. But 1 scum being able to make MULTIPLE attempts upon being right with their first one? That I didn't consider even remotely possible so I didn't ask for clarification like A50 did.

But I'm sorta LOL'ing. Most people I have played with here, so I'm going to be a threat to a few if they're scum this game. So they better hope they kill me quickly. Which brings me to A50's push on me. He knows I'm dangerous to scum as town. Which is interesting that he pushes me early D1.

My plan wasn't fool-proof and now with comments on it, it's now obvious why (main reason being mafia have multiple shots). See, the plan was to make them afraid of losing a mafia kill and make them misfire and even cause a situation where masons could all out with 1 scum alive to auto-win. Scum would kill 1 mason, but the other 3 would be alive. But since ANY mafia can shoot multiple times, that blows that plan out of the water.

Also lol at "Comm went silent". You know, there's this thing called a JOB. It is 8+hours. I disappear from here when I'm working. it happens. Same thing when I sleep.

Anyway, I don't mind being lynched because right now the wagon on me is full of shitty information.

[CommKnight]

@Gamma, what information would come from my lynch of any value this early in the day?

[CommKnight]

but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).

Mhmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

As for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.

[CommKnight]

So we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

Onto my reads thus far:

Not Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>
Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>
Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>
Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,

[CommKnight]

@Com:
Here's a tricky one: How would you read your own play so far if you didn't know your alignment and assuming you were someone else reading your posts?

I only need to point at how some others already are reading me. I misunderstood something of the set-up and my plan was flawed based on that. At least I tried to solve it and it probably generated the most discussion so far this game.

How would you read yourself outside looking in? The moment someone makes a flawed idea on their second post, someone pounces them and claims they're scum after only 2 posts? What about TIAM's post complaining about going silent and acting like it's justified to even after it was explained I was at work that it was an "excuse"?

You seem to have tunneled in on me without even looking at how others have reacted past your vote on me. Which is concerning me a bit here since you usually are more spot-on with reads than you are right now.

[CommKnight]

@A50, you know, you should probably decide today if I'm town or scum. Because here's the thing. If I was scum with day-vig ability to shoot 4 people while knowing who my 3 buddies are and only need to put 5 people aside as VT, do you think I'd be safe to bring into D2 if I'm scum? In fact the fact no masons are dead yet, do you think I'm scum? If I can scum-hunt well as a vig, what about my town-hunt ability as a vig?

Anyway, that paragraph is more directly for you, because you need to decide today if you're going to work with or against me in the coming days to find scum. We are basically the deadliest town-duo here if we're both town this game.

Also I'm kinda up for lynching any new players. I'm compiling a list of who's what on the side and scum have very little wiggle room left. I'm thinking by D2 I'll have a solid list of scum. But right now still wavering on a few people. Focusing on sorting people I've played with before.

[CommKnight]

Also I concur with A50's read of Gamma. This is Town!Gamma play. Which is where I'm looking at Moz at. I expect Moz to have better reads than this.

[CommKnight]

VOTE: Junko

I believe I've actually been able to narrow the scum pool down to 6 players already. Pending on Junko's flip I'll push one at a time.

[CommKnight]

So the votes that matter from jz's ISO. rb and Gamma. Most likely town for those two. But TIAM and Junko could be possible busses since the first was in joke stage and Junko was final vote before sending in a kill, probably hoping to get people off of Junko somehow?

Either way, 1 down, 3 to go.

[CommKnight]

Gamma Emerald (5) -

havingfitz, jzhenson93, Hongzi, mozamis, TwoInAMillion

Almost50 (2) -

JunkoChan, Gamma Emerald

CommKnight (1) -

rb

jzhenson93 (1) -

humaneatingmonkey

humaneatingmonkey (1) -

MawhrinSkel

Not Voting (3) -

CommKnight, wavemode, Almost50

Actually @A50, I'd refute your argument here. I don't think it was on Gamma at all. I think he was shooting someone ON GAMMA'S WAGON. Why? Because it'd make Gamma look bad if they flipped Mason when he was nearing being lynched at this point. He also changed his vote before shooting to possibly hide himself being implicated in it? I mean if the shot was successful, obviously he hit a VT.

So I don't think he shot Gamma OR Junko, because neither make sense. The person he moved to vote and the person who is likely to be lynched by town majority? Just doesn't make sense at all.

I still TR Gamma, but it does raise the question was it the above scenario to make Gamma look bad or was he trying to protect Gamma by killing a mason on his wagon? If so, how many town players are voting Gamma? Also changing to Junko could be to hope we TR Junko in case his shot did fail. But either way, I think with scum on the wagon that long, Gamma is town here.

Anyway, based on that reasoning, I don't want to lynch anyone on Gamma's wagon or Gamma himself today. Because I think that's a big town bloc in there with possibly one scum in it max? 2 outside of it for sure.

Based on his votes, rb is off the table today and I'm not lynching A50 today.

So that leaves:
- Junko
- humaneatingmonkey
- Skel
- Wave

The original 4 scum I had was: TIAM, Skel, Junko, Hongzi with the two being flipped between jz and Wave with Junko and Hong.

So today I'd prefer either Junko or Skel today with Wave and human being if it comes down to hammer. But Junko or Skel are my top two preference lynches today.

[CommKnight]

Also based on the VC, I think humaneatingmonkey is safe today. TIAM only safe because he was on Gamma. But TIAM is definitely someone to look back to later in the game once we get another red flip.

Junko and Skel sill top 2 preferences.

[CommKnight]

I think you're wrong

Care to elaborate?

[CommKnight]

Everybody needs to stop monkeying around here.

[CommKnight]

VOTE: MawhinSkel

1.) Gamma isn't being lynched today, suck it up.
2.) We already have information without flipping him. Pushing for his flip seems to be you wanting to know if he's VT or Mason.
3.) Skel and Junko are more informational at this point.

[CommKnight]

Town

TwoinaMillion

Almost50

havingfitz

Null-Town

jzhenson93

humaneatingmonkey

rb

Null
MawhrinSkel

Null-scum
mozamis

wavemode

Hongzi

Scum

JunkoChan

CommKnight

He also voted Gamma and he forgot Gamma from this reads list. He posted right after that Gamma was "Null-Scum"

Red = Flipped scum.
Yellow = People TIAM voted for.
Orange = People jz voted for that matter that TIAM didn't vote for.

Fitz, Mawhin, Moza, and Hongzi all stick out. I think Fitz and Hongzi are town here though. So gonna say we should push Mawhin and Moza. Keep in mind that Moza has been pushing mislynches. So VOTE: Mawhin. Time to off the 3rd scum and surround Moza for the final scum lynch.

[CommKnight]

I think 1 scum in Null and Null-scum. Junko is pretty much town at this point.

[CommKnight]

there's 1 scum left

You should read the setup. 4 masons, 4 mafia, 5 vts.

[CommKnight]

If this flips red, final scum is Moz I believe.

[CommKnight]

I'm curious as to your reads list currently A50, who do you think is most likely town and who is left to sort?

[CommKnight]

VOTE: Fitz DO THIS NOW

[CommKnight]

THAT IS HAMMER

[CommKnight]

Hahhaha, the only Masons I was right about was A50 and Hong. Junko I was certain was a VT.

But LOL at town trying to lynch Gamma and me and A50 are here saying "NO YOU DIPSHITS". Glad to be right on my Gamma read.

[CommKnight]

I'm curious as to your reads list currently A50, who do you think is most likely town and who is left to sort?

^ This was me taking the Mason hint and trying to get A50 to tell me who his team was so I could push scum.

[CommKnight]

but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).

M

hmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

A

s for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.

S

o we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

O

nto my reads thus far:

N

ot Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>
Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>
Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>
Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,

^ My little "Mason" soft to try to draw a scum kill attempt. XD

[CommKnight]

Hahhaha, the only Masons I was right about was A50 and Hong.

How could you have thought I was a Mason and still thought I got shot at?

Well I was retracting my mason read after that when you didn't seem to pick up on what I was asking of you.

[CommKnight]

Lesson to take from this: A50 and I make a very deadly town duo.

[CommKnight]

This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?

Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled.

[CommKnight]

This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?

Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled.

Is that still Battle of the Bands?

Yep

[CommKnight]

I think I might be overfilled now actually looking at it. 4 spots and now 6 ins but the list hasn't been updated in a few days. But I'm sure there'll be 1-2 replaceouts early in the game, always are if you guys want to stay on for replacement queue (we'll see how many confirm when they finally update the list).

[CommKnight]

We'll find out, I requested the lists be updated. It's been forever since the front page has been updated (my game you have to find by looking at the end pages).

Also thanks for modding this Alisae. Hahaha, not gonna lie, I WANTED to be scum this game just because of my shooting ability.

[CommKnight]

These nightless games are pretty intense. This set-ups is definitely more fair for scum than the 4 mafia against the rest VTs. Here at least they have the chance of ending it D1 or D2 if they successfully pull off a single mislynch and correctly read the entire mason team.