Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

[ProHawk]

I figured you were the cop mutant and just knew that fitz wasn't Innocent child based on his play, which would have POE'ed him as tracker, although I didn't really think about it all that much.

[ProHawk]

I can't tell if Kelbris is dumb town or scum....

[ProHawk]

I'm leaning toward prohawk right now because a) he low-key bucked against Deas's lynch all day,

Naww, I would have bussed like scum actually did.

[mutantdevle]

I think that fishy and boring are VT, ProHawk is mafia and that Mutant is either Tracker or Cop.

The cop belief is understandable but what makes you think I’m the tracker? No one else should answer or address this question, trust me, this question is only for kelbris.

Thank you all for answering my question. The results are... interesting. I’ll be back in like 8 hours to discuss them further.

[Fishythefish]

mutant: I thought fitz was a tracker or cop (because he thought up the whole hypoclaims thing), and you were cop or IC (

because you seemed to think the third role was watcher!

)

What do you mean by this?

In mutant's hypoclaim post, he said "watcher" instead of "tracker". I thought he'd probably be less likely to mess up his own role's name. Though I didn't think all that hard about the possible reasons - obviously, asking for clarification would have been a bad idea

[kelbris]

I actually got the tracker idea from the same post from Havingfitz that made me suspect he was going to be NK'd. He said "Good luck mutant if you survive and get a pr action off (i.e. track)." I started to wonder if there were 2 trackers because of that.

[boring]

mutant: I thought fitz was a tracker or cop (because he thought up the whole hypoclaims thing), and you were cop or IC (

because you seemed to think the third role was watcher!

)

What do you mean by this?

In mutant's hypoclaim post, he said "watcher" instead of "tracker". I thought he'd probably be less likely to mess up his own role's name. Though I didn't think all that hard about the possible reasons - obviously, asking for clarification would have been a bad idea

I mean, why couldn't he just be a watcher? Why would that have yo be a mistake?

[Fishythefish]

Watcher is not one of the roles available in the game.

[ProHawk]

The level of obtusity on this thread has reached a whole new level...

[ProHawk]

After a re-read of Deas....

He has a tendency to buddy up with town by town-reading and defending them.
He has a tendency to scum-read his partner without really pushing them for a lynch while defending them at points.
He has soft-defended UC and sheep at different points.

I don't see Deas hard-bussing Boring like he has been pushing for both Elmo and Boring. Which further solidifies my inital read of boring being town despite her... opportunistic reads from my point of view.

That leaves Fish and Kelbris.

Kelbris is obv-scum. Fish has been playing a really good game if scum.

Also, current lynch pool for me (in order of appearance on the playerlist):

Yuria
Fishy
Elmo
kelbris
Viome

Everyone else I either think is town or don't want to lynch for some other reason. I'm also not sold on the Ectomancer suspicion.

First big reads list... unfortunately he combines the three choices here in this one list. But we do know he left out one partner here.

Reads list for convenience.

TOWN: Fishythefish, Mutantdevle, Viomi

Weak town: Ectomancer, IceGuy, Luca Blight

Something else: Yuria, boring, havingfitz

Weak Scum: Transcend, kelbris, sheepsaysmeep

Second big reads list, which is a good example of buddying up with town. Question is would he put all of his scum partners into Weak Scum?? Almost like an all eggs into one basket thing here...

I also think it’s very unlikely that Elmo is a town PR and I don’t think kelbris is as likely to be scum.

Pushing his preferred lynch early on (Elmo/boring) and soft-defending Kelbris...

[ProHawk]

Allow me to explain why I failed to realise that the Mason thing was a joke/impossible. When I looked at the intro post for this game, I missed the part where it listed the possible roles for mafia to choose, and believed that the sample PMs were just a few examples of what Maf could choose (first ever PYP game, first non-micro game in AGES). As a result of this (and reading the wiki page for Mason where it mentions Innocent Child) I started to think that the Mason claim was legitimate and that the IC one was not just a mere joke, rather a hint at his true role.

P.S. the part of the page that made me think such silly thoughts? It actually says "A single Mason is equivalent to an Innocent Child." I am not above admitting when I fucked up, which I did this time.

I actually got the tracker idea from the same post from Havingfitz that made me suspect he was going to be NK'd. He said "Good luck mutant if you survive and get a pr action off (i.e. track)." I started to wonder if there were 2 trackers because of that.

Why would you wonder if there were 2 trackers when you already knew and know what the rules of the game was because you had to go look it up in post 651...?

[ProHawk]

Let's look at the trajectory during the last game day... Bolded for emphasis.

I am back, I had no intention of "lying low until LyLo" as boring put it. I was simply more focused on events in real life rather then this game, good thing too since my team won the reserve shield in the country teams as a result (that's chess tournament btw). My reads on the lynch pool (minus myself obviously) are as follows:

ProHawk: scum-seems like he wanted to get me lynched before I had a chance to come back from V/LA, not even giving me a chance to make my reads list. Noticed how when Boring decided to vote for Deas he simply said "why DV over kelbris" and when DV voted for boring he simply said "why boring over kelbris". I suspect that he is partners with boring to be honest.

boring: scum

-the way he pointed the finger solely at those that went V/LA or were busy IRL seems to me like he is choosing the easiest targets to go for a mislynch, especially since we both claimed VT, meaning it would be easier to get said mislynch.

DeasVail: town

-has made some really good posts (such as #1485) and

in general seems one of the least likely to be scum in my book

.

mutant: town-if he is indeed PR as he claims, then I see no reason that he is scum. I also agree with what he said regarding Transcend's lynch.

Fish: town-post #1478 really strikes me as a town-aligned post, I have also not seen anything scummy from them today.

VOTE: boring

Once again, sorry for the V/LA but when a big event is on IRL I prefer to put my focus solely on that.

Then... about 43 posts and 2 days later...

Here are my reads of the lynch pool, using the whole game's info.

boring: starting to lean towards him being town,

I really like his early-game play such as post #437, as well as post #1516 (which I didn't really check the links of until now admittedly). Which actually explains why he went after Deas-he has played with him before/went through his previous games, something which I never really thought of doing myself.

ProHawk: still suspect him as scum, primarily because of the way his slot acted in the past, I also admit that I dislike his "i am scum for him now" post as being his reason to vote for me.

fish: town, haven't seen anything REALLY incriminating on him to be honest.

Deas: this is where my opinion changes drastically, I am convinced that he is scum, comparing his play in this game to the games that boring linked (thanks for that btw) I agree that this is the scum!Deas that we are dealing with.

VOTE: Deas

So... the person who Kelbris saw as scum just a few days earlier and who he only *starts* to lean towards [her] being town posts some meta links manages to get his mind changed from Deas (scum) being the "one of the least likely to be scum in my book" to... "convinced that he is scum".

This is... not... organic.

[ProHawk]

VOTE: Kelbris

Unless you can convince me somehow that Fish is Deas' partner boring I don't think my vote is going to switch...

[mutantdevle]

But as the day went on, I realized that you either didn't think it through, or didn't care.

I can assure you that it was neither of these. I must admit that halfway through the day I realised my original logic was flawed but the concept behind why I chose to give ProHawk a free pass for that day still stands. I will reveal the full extent of what my logic there I will reveal later on in the day. Just know though that I could have chosen anyone that was still alive (aside from Fitz and myself). In short though, the reason I chose ProHawk was that he was my 2nd strongest town read (the 1st being fishy) but he wasn't as unanimously believed to be as such.

mutant: I thought fitz was a tracker or cop (because he thought up the whole hypoclaims thing), and you were cop or IC (

because you seemed to think the third role was watcher!

)

What do you mean by this?

In mutant's hypoclaim post, he said "watcher" instead of "tracker". I thought he'd probably be less likely to mess up his own role's name. Though I didn't think all that hard about the possible reasons - obviously, asking for clarification would have been a bad idea

I have a habit of getting watcher and tracker confused :/ I often use both names interchangeably despite knowing there is a difference. Whoops. Hopefully, the scum would have either missed that or interpreted it as me pretending not to be the tracker.

It would appear that boring made the same mistake that I did there. I'm willing to confirm town boring at this stage in the game.

If y'all couldn't tell in hindsight, I was trying to make it seem like I was the tracker yesterday. It made no sense to me that a cop would have stayed quiet for so long despite having a read so I knew Fitz was the tracker. Obviously, a tracker is far more useful than an IC which is why I was trying to subtly draw the night kill to myself. I couldn't obviously blurt out that I was the tracker because any decent scum would call that bluff.

I'm hoping getting the whole tracker/watcher names confused had no impact on the scum's decision last night. I think it would have had just as much of an impact as Fitz's "I will try to track" post.

[mutantdevle]

I'm also thinking that kelbris is our best bet for scum. However, since there is only 1 scum left, their day chat is now useless. As a result, this day is our own more than ever. We should use every hour we have of this day to think through our decision and every hour we have the next day if it would come to that.

Also Kelbris' thoughts on which role was which looks the scummiest to me. I don't think he lied, but I wasn't expecting anyone to actually do that. But you don't need to lie to look scummy. Kelbris strikes me as the kind of person who takes things at face value. Hence why he thought a mason claim was serious and why he would think there might be 2 trackers and that Fitz was the tracker because Fitz basically said he was. As a result, I feel that's something Kelbris would kill over. He wouldn't have noticed my subtle hints to being the tracker as he takes things at surface value.

There is also this:

tbh, I kinda saw that coming. The minute havingfitz said "i'll try to track someone", I knew he would be the night's target. Scum couldn't allow him to figure out who didn't visit anyone, especially if maf killed since it would essentially prove that they weren't scum, narrowing down the mislynch pool.

I think that fishy and boring are VT, ProHawk is mafia and that Mutant is either Tracker or Cop.

You seem to have drawn the conclusion that I am not the IC despite that clearly being what I am. I cannot be the tracker since Fitz has died and flipped tracker. And if you thought I was the cop, then how the fuck do you have a scum read on ProHawk if I would have had a town investigation on him? There are a few other recent posts I can point at as flawed if needed. I'd really like to see you wiggle your way out of this one here.

Like I say, we should probably lynch kelbris. But there are still a few things I want to bring up first after I here Kelbris' response to this post.

[boring]

I'm really, really torn between Kelbris and Prohawk. I feel like I flip flop a lot.

I know that a ISO dive will come up with all kinds of untownly, inopportune, and flat-out baffling posts and actions on Kelbris's part. He's the most straightforward choice. If I were scum, I know I could nail his ass to the wall today.

But I think it's Prohawk. I've developed a personal list of scum tells, and he's dropped a few of them

a) When we're down to the last couple days, scum get impatient, and they usually vote first. They want to get the ball rolling, you know? Town tend to wait. This isn't universal -- you have to take personality into account here. But Prohawk doesn't give the impression of being very aggressive or impulsive by nature.

b) When yesterday was winding down, and it was clear that we were going to lynch Deas, he started saying things along the lines of "I don't get why we're not lynching the obviously scummy person" (i.e. Kelbris). I've noticed this kind of thing more frequently with scum. In my head, it's called a "little scummy tantrum". It happens when they're trying to steer town in a slam-dunk misdirection, and town chooses a less obvious path. All they can do is scream, mildly, passive-aggressively, into the void. Town who thinks shit's going wrong usually handle things differently. They are more likely to pull aside people who disagree, and ask them to explain their position; try to better explain their position/get aggressive about pushing their agenda; and/or they just kind of give in.

c) Fitz was definitely the better choice for Prohawk to kill, and mutant was definitely the better choice for Kelbris to kill. As I said before, NKs become increasingly straightforward as the game progresses. Like, I get that my NK theories have kind of sucked this game, but I refuse to learn my lesson.

d) there are more, but I'm sleepy.

[boring]

Also, you guys seem to think Kelbris's obliviousness is scummy, but it pops up in NAI ways too. Like, he keeps calling me "he". My avatar is a chick, I write like a chick, and it says "she" under my thingy. If you can link this trait to a scum slip or whatever, I'm with you, but I'm pretty sure he was like this before reading his role assignment.

[kelbris]

Look, I get it. I have made quite a few stupid mistakes this game, however I AM VT, and if you think that lynching me would help, then by all means do it. I know that town can still absorb one mislynch, and I am volunteering myself for that. A fair amount of stuff has been going on IRL, and so I didn't really take notes regarding this game (therefore I forgot about my post from last month). However, I am certain from what Mutant has said, combined with the fact that from what I gather, sheep is conf-town, that the lynch pool is myself and ProHawk.

Also, @boring in regards to my flip-flopping between M/F, sometimes I just get a bit mixed up, nothing that should be taken as alignment indicative.

VOTE: Prohawk

[mutantdevle]

Hmm, this is interesting. Kelbris is either genuine and had just made a fair few mistakes or he is scum that is pretty good at pretending to be dumb. Most seem to assume he is just idiot scum but I feel that is the least likeliest of the 3 options. A simple dive into his meta should give us answers which I will do later today.

[Fishythefish]

Yeah, I see kelbris's lack of understanding of the setup as a towntell. As mutant says, there are three possibilities:
- Genuinely poorly informed town. Totally plausible.
- Genuinely poorly informed scum. Also possible, but less likely - scum tend to be more up on the setup than town (particularly I'd expect here, where they chose the setup)
- Faking poorly informed scum. Least likely IMO - this isn't something I think scum fake much or easily.

Overall, though, I still think kelbris is scum. He's not done much more than the minimum to survive all game, and his day 4 100% fits with trying to survive and not caring about much else.

I disagree with boring's points on Prohawk in 1665. a) and b) are good descriptions of Prohawk, but I just don't think they are things scum does more than town. They might be good candidates for a meta dive, because I can imagine them being good scumtells on a per-player basis. For c), both kelbris and Prohawk claim they thought fitz was the tracker, and that would have been why they killed him.

[davesaz]

Vote Count 5.2

ProHawk (1) - kelbris
kelbris (1) - ProHawk
not voting (3) - boring, Fishythefish, mutantdevle

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch
(expired on 2017-12-28 16:00:00)

[ProHawk]

Boring, if I were scum, I'd have no chance mislynching Kelbris today and not save him for lylo. Just sayin,

[ProHawk]

Prohawk doesn't give the impression of being very aggressive or impulsive by nature.

Rofl, please go read my past games

[ProHawk]

Look, I get it. I have made quite a few stupid mistakes this game, however I AM VT, and if you think that lynching me would help, then by all means do it. I know that town can still absorb one mislynch, and I am volunteering myself for that. A fair amount of stuff has been going on IRL, and so I didn't really take notes regarding this game (therefore I forgot about my post from last month). However, I am certain from what Mutant has said, combined with the fact that from what I gather, sheep is conf-town, that the lynch pool is myself and ProHawk.

Also, @boring in regards to my flip-flopping between M/F, sometimes I just get a bit mixed up, nothing that should be taken as alignment indicative.

VOTE: Prohawk

Did anyone say your misuse of a pronoun was alignment indicative? Why is the lunch pool between me and you? There are two other unknowns here.

[ProHawk]

Yeah, I see kelbris's lack of understanding of the setup as a towntell

This is my point. There is literally evidence in the thread that he SHOULD have an understanding of the setup. I am telling you he is throwing a hail-mary and trying to fake town-tells