Open 703: Masons and Mafia Town Win!

[mozamis]

My scumfuck sense is tingling

thanks for not giving any reads, and just casting shade.(on who anyway lol)
happy to lynch gamma, lets go.

[Hongzi]

I'm about it.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[CommKnight]

but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).

Mhmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

As for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.

[mozamis]

Does Comm fake confidence as Town when he's not sure?

he is a confident/over confident player, so it makes sense he would come up with a flawed plan but push it as town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Stop masturbating with math like probabilities are indicative of anything. Remember the birthday paradox? Just focus on scumhunting jesus.

I'm done with work in a few so I can engage.

[mozamis]

and a few more posts from gamma without any reads, just a promise of him making some which he wont share?!
VOTE: gammaVOTE:

[mozamis]

jeez why wont the vote work?

VOTE: gamma

[CommKnight]

So we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

Onto my reads thus far:

Not Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>
Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>
Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>
Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,

[mozamis]

people should vote for gamma.
another reason is he is casting shade on comm wihtout voting him.

[TwoInAMillion]

Mozamis looks more town now, i like his logic for the most part.

I think Comm is scummy but I can go with a gamma wagon for now.

VOTE: Gamma

[Almost50]

@Com:
Here's a tricky one: How would you read your own play so far if you didn't know your alignment and assuming you were someone else reading your posts?

@Everyone voting Gamma:
I felt his "I want to replace out" bit was sincere and that he was really confused and frustrated as he couldn't form reads. Would it not have been more convenient for Scum!Gamma to fake some reads or something, rather than expressing his frustration in the manner he did?

[TwoInAMillion]

I don't think anyone who signs up for a mafia game should want to replace out within the first 10 pages, if at all, so it seems like he was trying to gain attention on purpose to me, which seems anti-town.

[Almost50]

Mozamis looks more town now, i like his logic for the most part.

Yeah, I think I'm leaning towards Town!Moz. Town /=right though, and I don't want to push Gamma too hard before he had time to readjust and form some reads.

Btw

Spoiler: (this has nothing to do with the game)

why do we have deadlines in this game? There's no night phase and Scum can submit multiple kills at any given time they deem fit, so deadlines are nothing (they just reset the VC and everyone can revote the same person anyway)

[Almost50]

I don't think anyone who signs up for a mafia game should want to replace out within the first 10 pages, if at all, so it seems like he was trying to gain attention on purpose to me, which seems anti-town.

Who says gaining attention is anti-town behaviour? It's commonly considered a town!tell, and at worst NAI (it is NAI for me bc it's NAI for me, if you get the pun)

[TwoInAMillion]

I think there are better ways to help town than bringing attention to yourself. It just seems that his attention is not on finding scum which is where it should be.

[CommKnight]

@Com:
Here's a tricky one: How would you read your own play so far if you didn't know your alignment and assuming you were someone else reading your posts?

I only need to point at how some others already are reading me. I misunderstood something of the set-up and my plan was flawed based on that. At least I tried to solve it and it probably generated the most discussion so far this game.

How would you read yourself outside looking in? The moment someone makes a flawed idea on their second post, someone pounces them and claims they're scum after only 2 posts? What about TIAM's post complaining about going silent and acting like it's justified to even after it was explained I was at work that it was an "excuse"?

You seem to have tunneled in on me without even looking at how others have reacted past your vote on me. Which is concerning me a bit here since you usually are more spot-on with reads than you are right now.

[Almost50]

Hmm...

UNVOTE:

I'm disappointed in your response, Comm, but it's probably because you're town (I said PROBABLY, so I'm not saying you ARE).

You probably misunderstood my question though, as I wasn't trying to push you further or trick you into justifying my initial read on your slot. It was a mere attempt at getting you to analyze your own play and spot what was missing there for me to realize you're town if you really are.

Your response though feels like you are disappointed, which could very well come from Town!You having hoped to work with me, or could be Scum!You assuming I would have automatically TR'd you. I'm leaning the former right now, but not totally excluding the latter.

[Almost50]

@Everyone: Am I the only one suspecting HuEMo? I don't understand the TRs on him. I can maybe understand being Null on the slot (as in being confused and being able to decide), but I don't see what he gets TR'd so far. Can anyone help me?

[Almost50]

I am especially concerned about the "Lynch anyway regardless of the claim" concept, and even more so the response I got for pointing it out. "You're wrong and I'll tel you why tomorrow"? Why tomorrow? Why not on the spot?

[Gamma Emerald]

My scumfuck sense is tingling

thanks for not giving any reads, and just casting shade.(on who anyway lol)
happy to lynch gamma, lets go.

I was saying I suspected someone without telling them I suspected them specifically. I was referring to Hongzi going softball on TIAM. I'm also not a fan of him just voting me without precedent.
Something I noted: since mafia don't have communication, they can't inform each other of their targets to warn of VTs
Gonna note I'm liking moz for town rn, so I have someone I can trust

[Almost50]

@Gamma: Let me know when you finally realize I'm Town here. Yeah, I know my Scum and Town games look quite the same to you, as you SR my play as either alignment, but I figure you've played enough games with me to have developed some gut sensor to make you at least lean either way.

[mozamis]

Would it not have been more convenient for Scum!Gamma to fake some reads or something, rather than expressing his frustration in the manner he did?

i was in a game very recently where scum threatened to replace out. The replace out threat/replace out/ragequit is NAI, seen it both ways.

[Almost50]

'Scum'? Or 'Scum!GAMMA'?? That's the difference. I can tell you when RC threatens to replace out and doesn't that's a Scum!tell of his, while if he does rage quit his slot is Town. But that is RC-specific. In my experience Gamma doesn't threaten to replace out as Scum, and besides he was not under any pressure when he expressed those feelings.

[mozamis]

fair point, i dont know his game well enough.
he seems scummy in other ways so i guess i'm that bothered.

[Alisaes French Maid]

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