Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

[ProHawk]

Boring, go look at Kelb r is' posts and show me town motivation in ANY of them.

[ProHawk]

Hell if I was scum you would have been lynched ages ago

[boring]

Okay, so I did the meta dive. There's far less contrast in your meta than I saw in Deas's and even UCV's. Maybe a better meta reader than me can tell the difference, but all I can see is that as town, he's a little more carefee when he votes, but slightly less frequent with them. It is subtle enough that it could be attributed to small sample size.

I sampled these games, btw.

Town:
viewtopic.php?t=73460&f=83&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=65194&f=84&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=64339&f=84&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Scum:
viewtopic.php?t=69221&f=84&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=65875&f=54&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

[boring]

Regardless, there are enough of you wanting to vote Kelbris to lynch him. I'm not convinced he's town by any stretch of the imagination, but I'd like to use our time today to really make the right choice. I don't like leaving the fate of the game up to LYLO.

[boring]

Boring, go look at Kelb r is' posts and show me town motivation in ANY of them.

If we're being sugar cereal right now, I've been struggling to find town motivation in half the player list this game. I've given up that angle for the time-being.

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Kelbris

Unless you can convince me somehow that Fish is Deas' partner boring I don't think my vote is going to switch...

What about voting for boring? You said yesterday that you considered boring to be scum. But back then there was 2 scum alive, hence most people gave 2 scum reads. Now that there is only 1 scum alive I would expect most people would only really suspect 1 individual. Since you were wrong about Deas being town, would you be prepared to clear boring as town in confidence that kelbris is your scum read?

Similarly @boring, you seem most confident that ProHawk is scum, so would you say that kelbris is town based on that?

[ProHawk]

Unless Deas was playing a super long con, his interaction with Elmo/boring makes them very unlikely as scum-partners, so I'm like 80% sure boring is town although her wanting to kill me naturally gives me pause.

[mutantdevle]

although her wanting to kill me naturally gives me pause.

I think that's pretty understandable

Just waiting to know if boring's need for your head in a noose clears Kelbris as town :3

[ProHawk]

I don't think so? Boring could be town and just be plain wrong?

[mutantdevle]

I meant understandable as in it's understandable that you would be cautious of her since she wants to kill you so badly...

[boring]

Similarly @boring, you seem most confident that ProHawk is scum, so would you say that kelbris is town based on that?

Nope. I'm not as confident as you seem to think, either. Frankly, if everyone seemed set on Prohawk, I'd probably be pushing on Kelbris right now. I see an argument for each of them to be scum, and I want some dialogue. I've gotten a bit of a response, but I'm waiting for more discussion.

[Fishythefish]

Yeah, I see kelbris's lack of understanding of the setup as a towntell

This is my point. There is literally evidence in the thread that he SHOULD have an understanding of the setup. I am telling you he is throwing a hail-mary and trying to fake town-tells

I think that "evidence in the thread" (as you outlined here) is weak. You cited kelbris not understanding a key part of the setup (that there are only a limited number of roles). Clearing up that misunderstanding doesn't mean kelbris would understand everything else.

Boring, go look at Kelb r is' posts and show me town motivation in ANY of them.

I think this is fair; I think kelbris's posts are better explained by "wants to survive" than any other motivation. That's something that's hugely scummy in some people, but less so in someone who's a bit less engaged and thoughtful about the game. It's still a scumtell, and it's still a big reason I want to lynch kelbris, but I don't see it as so certain as you.

[mutantdevle]

Hmm, this is interesting. Kelbris is either genuine and had just made a fair few mistakes or he is scum that is pretty good at pretending to be dumb. Most seem to assume he is just idiot scum but I feel that is the least likeliest of the 3 options. A simple dive into his meta should give us answers which I will do later today.

I have finished meta diving kelbris. I think he might actually be town...

My analysis of Kelbris's meta gives me the basics that due to his frequent small mistakes/misunderstandings these build up to make him inherently looks scummy. But the thing is, in all his scum games I've read, he looks even scummier and, as a result, is often lynched on day 1 or 2. Kelbris often makes small mistakes like getting 2 players mixed up, poorly judging what roles exist/setup spec, misinterpreting player's actions as well as getting pronouns wrong. This kind of thing is NAI for him. If anything, he seems more engaged when he is scum. This would mean that he would still has the possibility of being scum if it wasn't for the fact that the main points against him are these which I have found to be NAI.

What does seem to be alignment indicative for him though is how he reacts to being pulled up on these mistakes. He often tries to explain his thought processes as town whereas, as scum, he tries to justify his mistakes rather than explain them. As town, he also seems more able to change his opinion and listen to others which often comes across as flip-flopping. In contrast, scum Kelbris likes to stick with what he is going with more and is less likely to change his view on things. From looking over Kelbris's play this game, I'm really starting to doubt whether we are playing with the scum Kelbris as his meta would suggest this is town Kelbris we are dealing with.

Though if we were to listen to Kelbris's advice from a previous game then we wouldn't look at meta because a player can change their meta at any time. He was scum in that game though, so maybe he's aware his meta can be his weakness and was fearful that others would dig into it and expose him. But just saying, I'm doubting myself over if Kelbris is actually scum which is bad news for me since I town read every other player...

[ProHawk]

Since you're on the meta dive train, might as well do mine and fish, Boring already did the hard work for mine...

[mutantdevle]

Yeah I may do that later but am busy with other stuff right now.

I’ve noticed that kelbris and boring are more confident on Hawk being scum whereas Hawk and fishy are more confident on kelbris. I just don’t know anymore.

So how’s this for a plan/compromise: today we lynch kelbris and then we lynch ProHawk tomorrow if there is one?

[boring]

So how’s this for a plan/compromise: today we lynch kelbris and then we lynch ProHawk tomorrow if there is one?

Ask me again in about a week.

I think all three of us need to take the time to really try and sort them.

[ProHawk]

If Kelbris isn't scum we might have a better chance seeing my town flip first and then sort Kelbris and Fish later...

[ProHawk]

What happened to your suspicion of fish Boring?

[Fishythefish]

@mutant: please could you share which games you are basing that meta of kelbris on? I'd like to check it out myself, and we may as well use the same games.

[boring]

What happened to your suspicion of fish Boring?

Fishy

- I've tinfoiled this dude a lot this game, but him being my #4 out of 4 when it comes to most scummy players, POE puts him in the town pile.

Now, it's #3 of 3, but nothing has changed otherwise.

[ProHawk]

Can't really argue with that...

[kelbris]

That is a nice meta dive btw, you do make a very valid point. As town, I normally do try to explain my thought processes a bit better and am generally easier to sway then as scum. Primarily because as town, I would switch to whomever seems the most scummy, whereas when I am scum, I WANT that mislynch, so I stick to my guns unless something major is revealed which would incriminate me if they were lynched. In regards to my "meta can be changed" comment from a previous game, I had legitimately forgotten about that (been a while between my last game and this game). Will have to find out what tinfoiling means though, never seen that phrase used in mafia before.

[boring]

I might have picked up that term on Mafia Universe rather than here. I try to keep to site slang when possible. Tinfoil/tinfoiling means being paranoid, and/or having a unfounded, but personally compelling theory. It's some kind of homage to crazy people who wear tinfoil to stop aliens, government, lizard people, etc. from controlling them.

[boring]

Oh, and if anyone needs to do a meta dive on me, my wiki makes it easier.

And I agree that meta can be changed in a lot of ways. Some ways are harder. There are things that people are more likely to try to control (or be conscious of) than others. So the key is to look for those things.

[mutantdevle]

If Kelbris isn't scum we might have a better chance seeing my town flip first and then sort Kelbris and Fish later...

What makes you assume that kelbris is town if you are town? Also, I thought you scum read Boring more than you did Fishy so why would it suddenly be between Fishy and Kelbris over who gets lynched?