I've been reading through CommKnight's ISO and I came across something really interesting. During day 1, he said:
In post 314, CommKnight wrote:However, today I'd prefer a Mutant lynch as priority #1, he is the most anti-town player here and his play is definitely a scum perspective looking for info on town PRs.
Then, during the second day he said:
In post 615, CommKnight wrote:We continue with pushing people below Misa, I'm even including Mutant to avoid lynching today and I fucking SR the shit out of that slot. But protecting our PRs is much more valuable.
The interesting part is that during the first day, he wanted to lynch mutant. Then, during the second day when the NK indicated a high scum density in the top 5, he suddenly went like "We can't lynch mutant! We might lynch a powerrole!"
Amusingly, the probability that mutant has a powerrole has remained constant between these two days. If he's so against lynching the top 5 because they contain powerroles, then he should also have been against lynching the top 5 because they contain powerroles yesterday. What new information did we get on day two that could've made him so gung-ho of a sudden? The only new information that instigated him is
that there is probably a high scum density above Misa
.
A bit ironic, isn't it? He is fine lynching the top 5 during day 1, then learns that there is probably scum among the top 5, and suddenly he vehemently opposes lynching the top 5.
More amusingly, he's completely fine, and even pushing for, lynching one of the place 7/8 players (City and Chip, the number "5" crowd.) City ranks directly below mutant in terms of chance of being scum (City having an absolute 12.5% chance less of having a powerrole according to his own list; I think a relative 12.5%/absolute 7.3% would be a somewhat better estimate.)
Even though he is willing to lynch a "5" player based on mere gut, he will let his "fucking SR" mutant live merely because mutant is 12.5% more likely to have a powerrole.
This just doesn't seem like sane town play.
Going with a relative stupid lynch based on draft order instead of your huge scumread merely because of a 12.5% chance of hitting a powerrole is insanity. Even more insane is that the cause that he's no longer fine with lynching his massive scumread is because his scumread falls amongst the players with high scum density.
Oh, and here comes the best part:
In post 951, CommKnight wrote:You know what? Fuck it.
VOTE: Assembler.
At least when it all backfires, I can say I told you so.
Now that his business with "protect the powerroles" has somewhat backfired, he's more than happy to just lynch Assembler. What happened to your "fucking SR" on mutant? Do you realise that according to your own logic, Assembler is a whopping 25% more likely to have a powerrole than mutant?
It looks to me like
you don't actually care about the powerroles
. After attracting attention with your protection scheme, you're just jumping on the Assembler wagon now so you may be proven right tomorrow. If you really gave up on the protection agenda you pushed this whole time, then you'd be going back to mutant or somebody else you seriously scumread. But no, you're jumping on the new wagon that will probably lynch a town powerrole and prove yourself right tomorrow.
At this point things actually start to make sense. Here is the timeline of CommKnight's thought process:
- During the first day, CommKnight wants to lynch mutant because the town has rallied against mutant and he seems like an easy lynch;
- During the first night, the scum decided to kill MisaTange because there was no viable target above Misa due to high scum density and not wanting to narrow the surviving top players down to only those who are scum;
- During the second day, CommKnight continues the push to not kill top players because (1) there is relatively many scum among them, and (2) even if they lynch a town player there, they'd end up leaving isolating the scum top players. He covers up his intentions by whining about lynching powerroles;
- CommKnight doesn't actually have anything against mutant. He seemed an easy lynch yesterday, but today lynching mutant would mean lynching among the top 5, which is a bad idea because of the above reasons. He decides to use the "powerrole" excuse to jump off the wagon he completely supported yesterday.
- Now that his protection racket doesn't seem to be working and a slight bandwagon against Assembler has started, whom CommKnight knows to be town and probably has a powerrole, he jumps on it, so that he can claim he was right all along tomorrow when a town powerrole gets lynched.
Tl;dr: I have high confidence that CommKnight is scum.
