Open 703: Masons and Mafia Town Win!

[TwoInAMillion]

Gamma or Junko are both solid lynches. I see a lot of town play in general so I think town is in a good place overall.

[Alisaes French Maid]

Day 1, VC 10

With 12 Alive it takes 7 to lynch!

Gamma Emerald (1) -

humaneatingmonkey

Not Voting (11) -

CommKnight, wavemode, Almost50, havingfitz, Hongzi, mozamis, TwoInAMillion, JunkoChan, Gamma Emerald, MawhrinSkel, rb

Mod Notes

- wavemode is VLA until the 17th
- Gamma Emerald will be VLA from the 21st to the 25th
- havingfitz is VLA until Monday

Deadline:

(expired on 2017-12-22 18:00:00)

[Almost50]

OK, I've decided it's best to explain my thoughts about Gamma now so we won't get into complicated arguments later on:

First, Scum do not have daychat. They shot must've been on an obvious target. Who would that be? Junk? Certainly not, as if Junko flipped Town it would further implicate jz. Even in the off chance Junko is Scum the shot -obviously- wasn't on him.
Comm? Maybe, as if Comm flipped Town it may look like Junko shot him on face value, but it's ot the best target IMHO.
Someone random? Not a chance, as that would be the worst that could have ever happened from jz. He didn't know if he was killing or getting killed and with his flip his Scum team would gain absolutely no info.

What I'm about to say helps THEM as well as the Town, but I think the Town needs to be aware of the collective thoughts of it's members in order to coordinate our wagons better at this time.

The answer is Gamma IS/WAS the perfect shot target for jz. If Gamma flipped a Mason it would have made those who are voting him look bad, and those included Junko whom jz was trying to lynch. jz had earlier hopped off Gamma and so did fitz (which decreases my faith in my TR on the latter, but let's leave that aside for the moment). Gamma flipping a Mason (he could not have flipped as a VT as we all know VTs are kill-immune) would both make those who unvoted him look better and those who are still on his wagon look bad, and could have lead to a massive wagon on Junko.

If you can warp your head about my logic up there, it only means Gamma is confirmed a VT. He cannot be killed (as per the setup mechanics), and should not be lynched either. That's an unkillable IC IMHO.

If the above is true (and I'm like 95% confident in my logic) it makes Junko most likely Town as well. Both 2IAM & Moz were also still voting Gamma, so are likely Town.

Please notice that this is a logical/mechanical read that's totally independent on any meta, tone or gut reads.

So, as of now I would classify Gamma as unlynchable, and would say Junko, 2IAM and Moz are Town enough for me not to touch until we're close to LyLo.

Next on my list are Money & Hongzi. These two were voting jz still (as well as I), so likely Town too, BUT there's always a chance of one Scumster voting there for distancing when/if ever jz got lynched, and it's always better to get on your Scum p early as people tend to suspect those who join the wagon on Scum late.

So, while Monkey and Hongzi are still Town leans to me they are not as strong as the trio of Junko/2IAM/Moz, and certainly not as clear as Gamma is.

Comm I TR by tone, but I cannot argue for him on play. the only thing bI could bring up is him joining the Junko wagon 2nd only to a flipped Scumster, which is quite unlikely for Scum to do as I had explained in a previous post.

rb hasn't said much of late, so I have nothing to say for/against him.

Godel (MawhrinSkel) isn't even playing the game, so I fon't know, and having I was hard TRing but him hopping off the Gamma wagon then jz flipping (thus leading me to believe Gamma was the shot target) gives me an itch. He also has been absent of late.

Finally, wavemode has yet to play the game as well, and he only popped up to post an inexplicable realoist (I would also go on to call one of he worst I have ever seen, considering it contains 5 players at the bottom that I would not dare touch at this time).

I know Godel to be a low hanging fruit from the one game I've played with him before, so I'd say I prefer to lynch wave over him. fitz needs to come talk more before I decide on him, and I'm not going to line up more lynches before we get another flip that would either confirm my thoughts or falsify them and force me to reconsider a few slots.

VOTE: wavemode

[humaneatingmonkey]

Are you serious

[Almost50]

Does it look like I'm joking/trolling?

[Almost50]

You may want to test my theory yourself by shooting Gamma. Your continuous discrediting of my play is literally forcing me to reconsider my read on you. Shoot Gamma, or shoot me for all I care, and then we will know

[humaneatingmonkey]

Look at how you deduced that how Gamma was the kill and then you'll scratch your head as well.

[Almost50]

Instead of discrediting he idea for no apparent reason either point out why it's not likely or give a better shot option with reasoning

[Almost50]

Like why would Gamma shoot you or me? What's the benefit for him/his team if either of us flipped? Apply the same question to every other slot until you find the likely target(s) from your PoV

[Almost50]

I don't get how Gamma was a valid lynch when jz was voting him, stayed a valid lynch when a counter wagon formed on jz, and is still a valid lynch after jz flipped Scum! How does that work? What's the use of learning jz was Scum anyway? Why don't we just play this as a flipless game then?

[humaneatingmonkey]

To base a strong townread on Gamma in such wild wild speculation, almost crackpot reasoning, and oh my god a lot of assumptions? Occam be razor-happy.

Also, I know you're not a mason. So stop softing it.

P-EDIT:

Like why would Gamma shoot you or me? What's the benefit for him/his team if either of us flipped? Apply the same question to every other slot until you find the likely target(s) from your PoV

Why is this question relevant to why Gamma is automatically VT from a kill we all had no solid clue about?

I don't get how Gamma was a valid lynch when jz was voting him, stayed a valid lynch when a counter wagon formed on jz, and is still a valid lynch after jz flipped Scum! How does that work? What's the use of learning jz was Scum anyway? Why don't we just play this as a flipless game then?

Weren't you here when jz hopped of the wagon?

Also, I think you're better at mafia than I am. What's up with these bad trains of thought? Are you actually scum?

The use of jz flipping was to get associative reads, vote count analysis, and basic scumhunting tools that we all grew up and loved. That's why we're lynching Gamma too. I don't get you.

[Almost50]

First, we're NOT lynching Gamma. Let's get that off the way.

Second, I'm not softing anything, and I find your "I know you're not a mason. So stop softing it." to be a soft itself. The question is whether I should be taking it seriously or as a bluff, and if the later is it from a Townie trying to lure a shot on themselves or Scum trying to test the latter and get a better read judging by my response.

Third, the question is fairly relevant because it DOES help you deduce who was likely shot and who was not. If there's no reason for jz to have shot you/me then it's likely neither of us was actually shot at. If there's a potential benefit from either of our flips to Scum then it would make sense jz shot at the one he thought would help his cause if flipped.

In other words, assuming you are Town, shooting you would have either resulted in jz flipping anyway if you're a VT or you flipping a Mason who was pushing jz so would give credibility to his wagon. The same applies to me and Hangzi. Now even if one of us was Scum it still means none of us were shot, because Scum won't be shooting Scum in a single ball in which they were informed who their partners are. That's a given. So, no chance in hell jz shot you, me or Hongzi. Now keep on building on it and you will probably realize why my logic is very much applicable.

And I was here when jz hopped off the Gamma wagon. What's your point?

Finally, what do you think I'm doing? I

am

using associatives to base my reads and conclusions on. You need to state your definition of the word "associative" though, as you seem to be implying it's only based on communication between players and not their voting patterns or what other actions they take.

Also VC analysis IS part of my argument. I had stated why some people look more townie now based on their votes, and others look less townie based on their votes. In fact, the VC analysis is an essential part of my argument, so -once again- what was the point there?

The above IS basic Scum hunting to me. That's how I play Mafia. Nothing I've said or done so far is beyond my regular playstyle as either alignment and it should all be NAI on face value. It's when you look for

the motive

behind everything I say that you might realize how Townie my slot is.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't get how Gamma was a valid lynch when jz was voting him, stayed a valid lynch when a counter wagon formed on jz, and is still a valid lynch after jz flipped Scum! How does that work? What's the use of learning jz was Scum anyway? Why don't we just play this as a flipless game then?

If anything, you should be suspicious about how jz wasn't voting his counterwagon any more

[Almost50]

But why would he only abandon it when a wagon started to build on HIM? Yes, on face value jumping off the Gamma wagon was sus, but then it could have been done earlier. What refuted my suspicion on Gamma being Scum was that jz didn't even wait long enough for a wagon to form on Junko before he decided to shoot 'someone'. It's as if he decided he was caught and won't be able to shake off the lynch anyway, which means his hop off Gama's wagon was because it got so much resistance it didn't go through, and he suspected Gamma is likely a Mason thus the Masons were resisting it. Now if Gamma flipped a Mason it would make ME & Comm likely Masons too (we both were hard TRing Gamma in a way that most other players didn't find too convincing), so he jumped off the wagon, formed another on Junko, and shot Gamma in hopes to get a better read on who Masons are as well as implicate his new lynch target.

Too bad for him Gamma didn't turn out to be a Mason, so all his planning went down the drain.

If my reasoning doesn't make perfect sense to you it probably won't to Scum either, so they may try to shoot Gamma still, which is fine by me because either I'm right and another Scum will die or I'm wrong and Gamma will flip a Mason and then we STILL would not have lynched him ourselves.

Now here's a WIFOM bit that I don't mind doing: Are YOU a Mason with Gamma? Is that why you're so against my theory?

Hint: This can't be true as Monkey is the one pushing hard for Gamma's lynch anyway, so make your own deductions.

Another WIFIM bit: Am >I< a Mason who knows Gamma to not be a Mason? Oh, well.. I'll leave hat one open for speculation. Scum can only find out by trying to shoot me, and -even if they do- it's too unfortunate for them they won't know it unless I really am a Mason (i.e. if another one dies they can't tell if they targeted me, Gamma, you, or shot at the moon!)

[Almost50]

@Monkey: Oh, and also than you for the compliment, but I really don't think of myself as better than anyone. We all have our good days and our bad days. If you want to look up for someone who really is GOOD I suggest you learn from "Cerberus 666" who knows best how to mechanically analyze the most complicated of setups. He also knows how to evade the lynch quite well. Try Wisdom for "how to get a lynch going though on your own". I could go on about some of my idols, but maybe we can save that for post-game.

[JunkoChan]

This thread right now.

[Almost50]

@Junko

[JunkoChan]

You know I wouldn't be surprised if one of the monkeys was town and the other was mafia and I strongly believe that Almost50 is the town one.

[Gamma Emerald]

So the votes that matter from jz's ISO. rb and Gamma. Most likely town for those two. But TIAM and Junko could be possible busses since the first was in joke stage and Junko was final vote before sending in a kill, probably hoping to get people off of Junko somehow?

Either way, 1 down, 3 to go.

This makes sense.

Scum has no chat.

We need to lynch Gamma. I agree that day timers are irrelevant at this point and that we should take time for reads. But we need to lynch Gamma.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Interesting how you are so adamant about voting me.

How am I scum if gamma is town?

yeah this guy probably is scum.
He's too worried about whether people will scum read him or not, he's not looking FOR scum.

Good point, if he's scum he knows I'm town and as such is scared of that associative.

A50 is definitely scum. But we should lynch Gamma first to be sure.

You keep saying these things with no backing. Mind explaining yourself?

Look at how you deduced that how Gamma was the kill and then you'll scratch your head as well.

How about the fact multiple people have said "mason or mafia" wrt my not having been lynched. The mafia know I'm not them so they're left to conclude I'm a mason. As such they'll be inclined to shoot me.

[TwoInAMillion]

hem is more likely scum for me now, his logic is making no sense.

[TwoInAMillion]

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

[CommKnight]

Gamma Emerald (5) -

havingfitz, jzhenson93, Hongzi, mozamis, TwoInAMillion

Almost50 (2) -

JunkoChan, Gamma Emerald

CommKnight (1) -

rb

jzhenson93 (1) -

humaneatingmonkey

humaneatingmonkey (1) -

MawhrinSkel

Not Voting (3) -

CommKnight, wavemode, Almost50

Actually @A50, I'd refute your argument here. I don't think it was on Gamma at all. I think he was shooting someone ON GAMMA'S WAGON. Why? Because it'd make Gamma look bad if they flipped Mason when he was nearing being lynched at this point. He also changed his vote before shooting to possibly hide himself being implicated in it? I mean if the shot was successful, obviously he hit a VT.

So I don't think he shot Gamma OR Junko, because neither make sense. The person he moved to vote and the person who is likely to be lynched by town majority? Just doesn't make sense at all.

I still TR Gamma, but it does raise the question was it the above scenario to make Gamma look bad or was he trying to protect Gamma by killing a mason on his wagon? If so, how many town players are voting Gamma? Also changing to Junko could be to hope we TR Junko in case his shot did fail. But either way, I think with scum on the wagon that long, Gamma is town here.

Anyway, based on that reasoning, I don't want to lynch anyone on Gamma's wagon or Gamma himself today. Because I think that's a big town bloc in there with possibly one scum in it max? 2 outside of it for sure.

Based on his votes, rb is off the table today and I'm not lynching A50 today.

So that leaves:
- Junko
- humaneatingmonkey
- Skel
- Wave

The original 4 scum I had was: TIAM, Skel, Junko, Hongzi with the two being flipped between jz and Wave with Junko and Hong.

So today I'd prefer either Junko or Skel today with Wave and human being if it comes down to hammer. But Junko or Skel are my top two preference lynches today.

[CommKnight]

Also based on the VC, I think humaneatingmonkey is safe today. TIAM only safe because he was on Gamma. But TIAM is definitely someone to look back to later in the game once we get another red flip.

Junko and Skel sill top 2 preferences.

[TwoInAMillion]

I think you're wrong

[CommKnight]

I think you're wrong

Care to elaborate?