Open 703: Masons and Mafia Town Win!


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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:20 pm

Post by Almost50 »

You are slightly mistaken there, Comm as you are quoting an inaccurate/irrelevant VC. The vC at the time jz flipped looked like this:

Gamma Emerald (1): TwoInAMillion-JunkoChan-mozamis-
jzhenson93 (3): humaneatingmonkey-Almost50-Hongzi-
CommKnight (1): rb-
humaneatingmonkey (1): MawhrinSkel-
JunkoChan (1): jzhenson93-CommKnight-

Not voting: wavemode-Gamma Emerald-havingfitz-

So, by your own logic JUNKO should be off the table today.

I also don't get how you came to the conclusion Gamma was likely getting lynched when his wagon had stalled already. You ad I have been resisting it, and people had started to look at jz for an alternative.

Personally, if I was in jz's shoes I
would have most certainly
deduced Gamma was a Mason with both you and I, and I would have shot him. Otherwise, it doesn't even make sense to hop off the wagon he thought was likely to be the lynch, nor does it seem likely he would shoot someone on that wagon if he wanted it to go through.

To reiterate, I agree that if a Mason was voting Gamma and flipped that it might have lead tom more pressure on Gamma, BUT:
1- What leads did jz have to pick his target? For all he knows everyone not Scum on that wagon could be a Mason, or they all could be VTs. You don't shoot 'randomly' if the result is you getting killed yourself if you're wrong.
2- Even if a Mason who was on Gamma flipped; I'd say that would have only marginally worsened Gamma's case, as it would boil down to WIFOM. (Scum shot them to save their p vs Scum shot them to implicate Gamma).
3- Also, what if I'm wrong and Gamma was a Mason? Masons would still know not to lynch him anyway.

In order to be a good scum hunter you ought to learn to think like Scum. What would YOU do if you were in their shoes. What's the most likely move and to what gain? Random shooting just isn't my way of playing Scum, so I wouldn't expect it to have been jz's.

Finally, there's a contradiction in your post, which is suggesting jz could have shot someone on Gamma's wagon to implicate Gamma, and then suggesting it could -theoretically- have been done to protect Gamma! Like, you can't have them BOTH as valid arguments. Either you think a Mason flip on the wagon would lead to Gamma eating rope or you think it will raise his chances of survival.

At least we do agree that Gamma is most likely Town, and that the Gamma wagon at both it's peak and at the end is untouchable today. I would also add those who were voting jz and resulted in him doing that desperate move he did, and we have you/rb/Skel/wave as a lynch pool.

Now I don't expect you to promote your own lynch, and I won't support your lynch either. rb needs to chime in sometime soon to give u his view on the new situation, and Godel you know is very much lynchable as either alignment (after all you were modding the last game of cannibals and saw his play. It's even in your signature: Open 700)

I'd say we give Godel some time to try and play the game properly, regardless of his alignment. Even if he rolled Scum here he won't be much of a threat if he lives another day.

So. I recommend you vote wavemode with me, unless you think there's a good chance scum were busing jz, in which case pick one of Moneky/Hongzi to vote (which I wouldn't recommend, but still would appreciate your view on who is more likely to have been busing IF there was one).

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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:28 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

Why would I shoot Gamma when I could have had him lynched?

Also, more on the should masons claim or should they claim VT:

I would much rather analyze a lynch wagon than a wagon that hasn't been consummated because scum cut it shot by killing the lynch candidate. That means I much rather prefer it if masons don't claim mason.
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:31 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

I'm in full reaction mode meaning I might ignore some posts and react only to some. This is because I just alt-tab every once in a while lol
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:39 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

To be honest there's a whole wall post to make about your Gamma argument but I'm too tired to make it.
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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:51 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 376, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Why would I shoot Gamma when I could have had him lynched?
Because .. the lynch ... wasn't going through. The Gamma wagon had stalled and there were at least 4 players NOT in favour of it (aside from Gamma himself). Both you and I were on jz, and Hongzi who was originally voting Gamma also switched to jz, while Comm had stated an explicit TR on Gamma. It would have needed at least 3 Scums to be on Gamma for him to get lynched, and his flip would have put them on the spotlight so they weren't going to vote him either.

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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:04 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

I would have switched to Gamma in a heartbeat. Moz was already calling for it. Remember when I said that it was taking it all I have to not lynch Gamma?

Gamma wagon stalled because we were trying to delay a lynch. We wanted more people to weigh in. I thought that was what others had in mind as well.

If you want, make a votecount right now on who wanted to lynch Gamma before jz lmao. Because if we still have enough right now to lynch Gamma, I think we had enough to lynch Gamma right there. I believe the wagon was town-driven, too. So if Gamma was town like you postulate, scum would have joined in too instead of pulling the trigger.
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:14 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Here's another view: What was Gamma doing that Scum felt the urge to try and save him even at the cost of their own lives? If I was Scum with Gamma in this game I would have bused the shit out of him town!cred anyway. Imagine the other 3 Scums on Gamma's wagon leading to his lynch and him flipping Scum. It would have lead to at least 3 mislynches after his flip.

Also -thanks to Comm- I now have a stronger TR on Hongzi than I had before. I didn't realize he was on Gamma before he switched to jz, so I was only giving him the Town!cred based on the jz wagon. The SWITCH though earns him bonus Town pts because you don't quit a wagon on a townie to build one that is still growing on your p and had every chance of being defused before it got to explicit busing point.

So, Gamma/Junko/HongziTIAM/moz/Comm are now in my Town!block. If anyone else wishes to join it they had better do something really townie or pray for Scum to fuck up in a way that obv!towns them. :lol: Otherwise we can simply lynch everyone else and win, and that WOULD include any Mason c;aims outside if this block.

p-edit: You "thought" it was Town driven, but do you still "believe" it was when the 2nd person to vote Gamma had already flipped Scum???

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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:17 pm

Post by Almost50 »

But let's cut through it all and get to the point: What do you have to say against the lynch of wavemode?

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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:21 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

He got out of that wagon quick as quickly as he can, A50. Your hint was that he wasn't voting his counterwagon Gamma.

P-EDIT:
His reads were bad and I'm looking at him as next lynch whether or not Gamma flips scum.
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:28 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 383, humaneatingmonkey wrote:His reads were bad and I'm looking at him as next lynch whether or not Gamma flips scum.
If it's independent on the Gama flip then it's probably a better vote for you anyhow, at least for now.

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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:36 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

I still think Gamma will flip scum and I'm not abandoning that. Let me just get free time and I'll show you.
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:43 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Mate, we are not lynching Gamma. I'm fighting it tooth and nail. Just take a look at your signature and get over it.

"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:44 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

Respectfully, mate, that was my scum game. And who's to say I can't fight tooth and nail to lynch Gamma, too? I'll get that lynch.
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:47 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 387, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Respectfully, mate, that was my scum game. And who's to say I can't fight tooth and nail to lynch Gamma, too? I'll get that lynch.
You may try. Even if you succeed -which I very much doubt you will- you will get be lynched next when he does flip Town.

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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:50 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

I very much doubt I will
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:51 pm

Post by mozamis »

i dont quite get why almost is so convinced gamma is town. Based on meta? meta can be useful, but its not alwways great as you can end in confo bias.
@ Almost - Gamma has done a damn thing to find scum, surely you can see that.
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:51 pm

Post by mozamis »

*HASN'T...
*headdesk*
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:08 pm

Post by mozamis »

@ almost - please could you find a way to scuccintly summarise your soporific stanzas? ;)
Joking aside, some of your wall posts are getting epic. Be great if you could tighten up the prose a tad for us poor tired-as-fuck-bastards.
For the record I still think you're town. That or you are playing one hell of a scum game. But yeah...how about some love for the one liner lovers?!
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:20 pm

Post by mozamis »

we just dont know for ure if gamma is scum, or if scum shot gamma, or if scum shot someone else. Its jsut a world of WIFOM/speculation.
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:21 pm

Post by mozamis »

However, old fshioned scum huntign strongly suggests the guy is scum, and is an excellent day 1 lynch.
You've reached that age, Listy. 24, 25...Your muscles give up, they wave a little white flag of surrender and without any warning at all, you're suddenly a fat bastard...
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:32 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 394, mozamis wrote:However, old fshioned scum huntign strongly suggests the guy is scum, and is an excellent day 1 lynch.
The tl;dr: Scum will always shoot for a purpose, and more so if the punishment for being wrong is getting killed themselves. So, jz didn't shoot an arbitrary player. He shot someone whose flip would have either saved jz or someone he thought was a Mason. Now do place yourself in Scum!Jz's shoes and take your aim. Who would you have shot to save yourself? Who would have been your best guess for a Mason? You don't even need to answer in the thread, Just do the math yourself.

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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:49 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Old fashioned scum hunting lead me to believe Monkey was voting his p for distancing and it backfired.

Old fashioned scum hunting would lead me to believe Comm is probably scum for continuing to use bad logic.

Old scum hunting leads me to believe wavemode's read list was manufactured and that wave is scum.

Monkey admits wave to be in his lynching scope, but wants to do Gamma first, He's lining up lynches. I pressed him to lynch wave with me before Gamma but he refused, so I'm inclined to think he will come up with a reason not to vote wave as soon as Gamma flips Scum.

Comm I still somehow refuse to believe has rolled Scum this game. It's mere gut, but I'm starting to run out of other options.

Finally, I don't understand why Gamma can't live another day? Why him in particular? Why was he jz's vote target? Why did jz quit that wagon if he intended to shoot just about anyone else?

Now check this out:
In post 348, humaneatingmonkey wrote:A50 is definitely scum. But we should lynch Gamma first to be sure.
THIS after the jz flip. Why would Scum!Me try to save Gamma by pushing specifically for another Scumster? Even Stevie Wonder would see that I'm the towniest player in thus game thus far.

Coupled with discrediting me, and later stating he would lynch wave REGARDLESS of the Gamma flip, this is SCUM on pure Scum agenda.

Maybe I'm wrong about wave, but he read list was terrible and suggests he never read a damn thing and pulled one off from thin air. He explained nothing about it when Gamma asked either. He just went down his rabbit hole.

I say we lynch one of the two. Either one I'm fine with to be honest. I was just trying to give Monkey a chance to show me at least he can be bad Town, but it doesn't look like he is.

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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:51 pm

Post by Almost50 »

And sorry for posting yet another wall. I started off with one line, then it became 2 then 3, then I let go of myself. You could still read it line by line though, I think.

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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:56 pm

Post by JunkoChan »

What I expected: a bad wavemode reasoning about his reads
What I got: 2 more pages of monkey action
What i really got: Nothing from Wavemode

VOTE: Wavemode
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Post Post #399 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:57 pm

Post by Alisaes French Maid »

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