In post 1280, implosion wrote:I think I believe wave's claim, on the premise that I'm not entirely sure what it buys him as scum.
The game if Seph is town?
Tbh I'm slightly confused why we didn't go through this song-and-dance yesterday with Serg. Like why weren't people worrying about him lying about the guilty in order to win the game?
(This was a thing I was worried about, but I decided it was rather unlikely and I didn't see the point of bringing it up if no one else did. I was actually still considering this possibility up to and until Wave claimed, but now I'm more worried about Wave doing it.)
In post 1284, wavemode wrote:Flubber I actually don't think it's productive for me to have this discussion with you because you don't seem to understand the value of a guilty. You don't understand that scum will kill people who are on the verge of getting a guilty on them, and that town will do things that are out of the ordinary if they feel it will keep them alive and net them a guilty. Maybe you're scum, maybe you're high, who knows at this point. But the more you argue from this bizarre perspective that I should have claimed yesterday, or that the scumteam maybe wouldn't have wanted to kill me, or any of these other nonsensical arguments you keep trying to make, the more you're convincing me that this is actually just a fruitless discussion. You've made up your mind and, frankly, I can live with that at this stage.
In post 1299, skitter30 wrote:Although the one thing I don't get from Wave is why he assumed they'd kill him and not Serg last night if he had claimed yesterday.
In post 1299, skitter30 wrote:Although the one thing I don't get from Wave is why he assumed they'd kill him and not Serg last night if he had claimed yesterday.
I wasn't certain of Serg's alignment yesterday, if you recall...
If the question is between me and chip, it's obvious I'm the kill there. If the question is between me and serg, my apprehension was simply because I really didn't know he was town. That's why we spent so much time setting up a vig strategy
We weren't as worried about serg's claim for several reasons, notably:
-> it aligned with his competence and his experience with irl mafia, where gambits like that make more sense
-> The motivations behind it were less sinister. If we believe wave, we lose *now.* Believing serg gave us time to flip his confirmation if need be
I always shorten deadlines as the days go on - seven days for Day 4 is reasonable to me. Willing to extend it by 3 days, but then it's Christmas! Let me know
In post 1302, wavemode wrote:What do you mean, that's what I have now since seph is lying about his role
Right, but neither you nor Serg could have known that you'd get a guilty before you investigated people. You didn't know *yesterday* that Seph was lying, and since you claimed VT, you were never dying last night.
I'm not sure why you thought they'd kill *you* instead of Serg or Chip last night if you had claimed. Serg could get the same level of guilty. You'd get a guilty if someone lied about being a VT and was actually a scum PR, and Serg would get a guilty if they lied about being a VT and was actually a goon. Like you posed the same level of threat to them as Serg did if there's a scum!PR, less if there wasn't.
In post 1303, Flubbernugget wrote:I don't understand why you're fence sitting on such a blatant lie in this game.
Do you think wave has the win rates in his sig from making really bad plays?
I dunno. I've only played with him the once and he was town and I was scum. I can't cite general experience of him.
In post 1304, wavemode wrote:If the question is between me and chip, it's obvious I'm the kill there. If the question is between me and serg, my apprehension was simply because I really didn't know he was town. That's why we spent so much time setting up a vig strategy
I don't know why you think you'd be the kill here between you and chip tbh. Chip can kill them. You can guilty them but you have to convince us you have a guilty.
Do you now think Serg is town? And if so, why?
In post 1308, Nexus wrote:I always shorten deadlines as the days go on - seven days for Day 4 is reasonable to me. Willing to extend it by 3 days, but then it's Christmas! Let me know
I'd like an extension just cuz seven days is not a lot of time, but I also don't celebrate Christmas, so I'm happy to defer to all the players and mod who would actually be impacted by this.
In post 1309, skitter30 wrote:Right, but neither you nor Serg could have known that you'd get a guilty before you investigated people. You didn't know *yesterday* that Seph was lying, and since you claimed VT, you were never dying last night.
Yes? This is all true. And it's why I did what I did, to stay alive and find out for sure
In post 1309, skitter30 wrote:I'm not sure why you thought they'd kill *you* instead of Serg or Chip last night if you had claimed. Serg could get the same level of guilty. You'd get a guilty if someone lied about being a VT and was actually a scum PR, and Serg would get a guilty if they lied about being a VT and was actually a goon. Like you posed the same level of threat to them as Serg did if there's a scum!PR, less if there wasn't.
As I said, I didn't know Serg was town yesterday. At the time I claimed VT, I was hard scumreading Serg and he had not yet claimed. Even if after he claimed I had felt like backtracking and outing myself for some reason, I'd still have been reluctant because I still wasn't certain TIAM was scum and Serg was town - which is why I proposed we settle it with the vig shot.
In post 1309, skitter30 wrote:I don't know why you think you'd be the kill here between you and chip tbh. Chip can kill them. You can guilty them but you have to convince us you have a guilty.
Is it that hard to see? Okay, maybe you as scum would see chip as more of a threat but that's not how I see things at all. If I were scum claiming VT I'd want to avoid someone finding out I'm lying. One one hand you have the off possibility that chip shoots, and shoots correctly, and on the other hand you have the pretty much certainty that wavemode will check the claim of his biggest scumread. In my mind that's a clear situation where you kill wavemode, and it's exactly what I was trying to avoid. Though maybe we just agree to disagree on this point.
You're right, there is the possibility that Serg did an elaborate bus on TIAM, and I did consider it. But I still consider Serg town because Seph is confscum for me right now, so Serg would have to be Seph's partner. In which case he would have come into today with an inno on Seph, or a guilty on someone else. Either of those would have been a good path to victory for them as a scumteam.
I guess I'm sort of speaking from my point of view here. If wave is scum it seems like a much safer tactic to just try to lynch me than it would be to make this claim which would be very hard to predict the reception towards.
Tbh I'm slightly confused why we didn't go through this song-and-dance yesterday with Serg. Like why weren't people worrying about him lying about the guilty in order to win the game?
I mean. One, I at least wasn't especially scared because I was pretty confident Chip was town and if we were wrong he'd have just shot serg. And two, I did go through pretty much the exact same song and dance actually:
I wrote:Assuming Chip is town, the stated plan sounds good to me. I'd be pretty damn surprised if TIAM flipped town especially given Serg would have very little motivation to claim as he did, since TIAM was likely to be lynched anyway. If he does, then obviously chip can shoot serg and he'll probably also die and we'll have to figure things out from there. But assuming TIAM flips scum, this leaves us with three people pseudocleared from claims:
I'll try to case flub RL-tomorrow. I'm going to be biased because I'm basically going to be ISOing him while already very strongly thinking he's scum but I'll do my best to look at things somewhat neutrally/be convincing to someone who isn't looking at the game the same way. Or maybe I'll find something really townish but I don't remember ever seeing anything from him that strongly pinged town to me so I doubt it.
In post 1310, wavemode wrote:At the time I claimed VT, I was hard scumreading Serg and he had not yet claimed.
In post 1310, wavemode wrote:Is it that hard to see? Okay, maybe you as scum would see chip as more of a threat but that's not how I see things at all. If I were scum claiming VT I'd want to avoid someone finding out I'm lying. One one hand you have the off possibility that chip shoots, and shoots correctly, and on the other hand you have the pretty much certainty that wavemode will check the claim of his biggest scumread. In my mind that's a clear situation where you kill wavemode, and it's exactly what I was trying to avoid. Though maybe we just agree to disagree on this point.
No, I was just looking at it from my POV: Serg is the investigative, and you are claiming to be a second investigative, so after Serg claimed, I didn't see why you would automatically be the highest priority night kill.
But then I realized you're claiming to have gone through the massclaim yesterday from the POV that you
were the only (significant) investigative
, in which case from your POV, you would be the highest priority night kill. And I think I can buy that because that's what I thought about Serg yesterday.
I'm trying to find the posts that made me think you were the investigative so that I can see if this matches the way you were behaving day 3, but I can't pin it to specific posts :/ I think it was a subconscious thing.
Was there another reason why you wanted massclaim yesterday?
In post 1093, wavemode wrote:And then we have RB, Backup RB and FBI. And vig I suppose, if anyone believes that
Either way town PR's seem somewhat sparse if TIAM is fakeclaiming...
What was this?
I also want to talk a bit more about your implosion progression, specifically:
a) why did you decide to check him night 1?
b) why did a 'vanilla' result make you back off him day 2?
c) in relation to the following posts, specifically the fact that implosion became a major contender for scum at the very end of day 3?
So these are some things that I'm having some trouble with:
a) The main sticking point is the way you voted Two straight off the bat yesterday. I know we talked about it a lot, but I dunno, the way you voted in probable MYLO still just doesn't sit well with me.
In post 1285, Sephiroth wrote:I felt that the implication was that I was just following you around which I don't think was the case at any point in the game.
Like this was not my intent to imply because I have a lot of respect for your game. Regardless of your alignment, I think you played really, really well, so I want to apologize if you thought that's what I was implying.
And I dunno. That vote just doesn't square with the rest of your game, which is just a lot more rational and thought-out and just full of good sense. It made sense from the perspective of trying to end the game in MYLO with a town!two mislynch. We know we don't live in that universe anymore. The vote *also* makes sense from the perspective of you trying to bus a partner for towncred and forgetting that we need to be worried about MYLO if you and he are both scum. Like you'd fundamentally know that we weren't in MYLO in that scenario, so it makes sense to me that scum!you might overlook the fact that you needed to pretend about MYLO there if you were more focused on making sure you executed a good bus after a partner did something kinda stupid.
Like I can see other people doing that and I wouldn't be surprised, but you seem a lot more cautious and rational so that vote just feels really wrong in that context coming from town!you there.
Can you also talk about how Two went from scummy throughout day1 to nulltown at the start of day2?
This was wrt to your Lalendra vote day2, and it kinda bothered me at the time, but day 2 got cut short and day 3 got subsumed by other topics of discussion.
I dunno if I can articulate why I didn't like this, but I'll try.
The general argument against her day2 was that she completely forget about you in her readslist after she had a whole argument with you about associatives day 1, prompting declare you her biggest scumread; it didn't look natural for a townplayer to forget about their biggest scumread.
But then she started arguing *your* side of the argument, prompting the above quote.
The thing that felt kinda off about it is that it feels more *personal* than scumhunt-y. Like you were feeling vindicated by the fact that she was making an objectively silly argument given her day1 stance. Like the connotation I got from that quote there was more like you were happy you had won this argument, and not per se that you thought you had found scum.
I hope that made sense? I can try that again if it didn't.
c) Also post 1251 feels off to me. (I know I'm saying things are off. I can't always articulate why I don't like things, sorry :/ I'm trying though).
Like wave accuses you of lying about your role. Instead of accusing him back or confronting him, that whole post was addressed to *me*. Like I know I'm the person who's going to decide here, but I dunno. Like if you're town and thought Wave was lying like I'd have expected you to accuse him of being lying scum and vote him or something.
Like your whole reaction seemed kinda tame wrt to Wave if you're town here, since from town!seph's POV, there's a dude who's lying about your role in MYLO and is trying to get you lynched. And you respond by saying 'hey no, skitter, his claim is sketchy and this is why you should believe me'.
Like you voted him and 'threw down the gauntlet' *after* your appeal to me ,and I dunno. I guess I'd expect a more visceral, knee-jerk reaction of 'you're lying' if you're town here.
In post 1314, skitter30 wrote:Was there another reason why you wanted massclaim yesterday?
The main reason I was in favor of a massclaim was so I could catch someone lying about being a VT that night, or perhaps that day catch implosion fakeclaiming a power role when I knew he didn't have one
He was one of my hunch scumreads at the time. I thought he was trying to coast on Wossi lynchbait rather than find actual scum motivations
In post 1314, skitter30 wrote:why did a 'vanilla' result make you back off him day 2?
It decreased the general odds of him being scum. That didn't prove him as town, but I decided to reevaluate and possibly wait until later in the game to get him by PoE or setup spec, rather than push him directly. And, indeed, now that a goon has flipped, I'm liking my decision to be patient with implosion. I really would consider it a very strange setup if 2/3 of the scumteam are goons
In post 1314, skitter30 wrote:in relation to the following posts, specifically the fact that implosion became a major contender for scum at the very end of day 3?
With respect to that progression, Chip was ruled out after claiming vig. Then Serg was part of a 1v1 so the question was no longer whether he or TIAM was scum, the question was who are the other two. Holding fast on Seph, that was the point where I needed to decide if my townreads of Flubber/skitter were wrong, or if implosion was simply a mafia goon. I decided to go with the latter
So these are some things that I'm having some trouble with:
a) The main sticking point is the way you voted Two straight off the bat yesterday. I know we talked about it a lot, but I dunno, the way you voted in probable MYLO still just doesn't sit well with me.
So this really sucks to admit to myself, but let me come clean about a couple of things.
1
) I'm not good at setup speculation and my eyes often glaze over when people start talking about it. I only play like one or two games a year so I don't really have to great ability to discern game state.
2
) I'm not a very good scumhunter and one of my greatest weaknesses is tunneling, which is something I'm trying to work on consciously.
3
) I didn't realize that we were potentially in MYLO when I made my vote, and I was tunneling on TIAMs play and hammer at the end of the day and his subsequent claim which was full of holes. Maybe I should have admitted I didn't realize the situation but I stand by my belief that a quicklynch was pretty unlikely with TIAM as the target (since he was one of the lolvoters you mentioned). It was easier to state that genuine opinion then admit that I didn't think about the possibility initially.
In post 1314, skitter30 wrote:
Like this was not my intent to imply because I have a lot of respect for your game. Regardless of your alignment, I think you played really, really well, so I want to apologize if you thought that's what I was implying.
Thanks. I guess I've got some post traumatic stress from other games on this front.
In post 1314, skitter30 wrote:
And I dunno. That vote just doesn't square with the rest of your game, which is just a lot more rational and thought-out and just full of good sense. It made sense from the perspective of trying to end the game in MYLO with a town!two mislynch. We know we don't live in that universe anymore. The vote *also* makes sense from the perspective of you trying to bus a partner for towncred and forgetting that we need to be worried about MYLO if you and he are both scum. Like you'd fundamentally know that we weren't in MYLO in that scenario, so it makes sense to me that scum!you might overlook the fact that you needed to pretend about MYLO there if you were more focused on making sure you executed a good bus after a partner did something kinda stupid.
I mean, those are valid ways of viewing the vote from your perspective. Voting without properly ascertaining the situation was a bad move objectively regardless of my alignment. I guess the question is whether you believe that I didn't realize we might be in MYLO or that I "didn't realize" (gratuitous air quotes) that we were in MYLO. If it means anything to you, I will BS my way out of mistakes as either alignment because my playstyle means that most players read my mistakes as scumtells. Players with a less analytical/rational playstyle might be given the benefit of the doubt, but I usually am not.
In post 1314, skitter30 wrote:
Can you also talk about how Two went from scummy throughout day1 to nulltown at the start of day2?
I don't think I have an answer for this to satisfy you. Multiple players with extended meta on TIAM saying that his meta supported him being town or at best his play was NAI, so I stopped paying as much attention. I also note in 658 that TIAM is one of the players I need to reevaluate, as my scum read had been summarily shot down by people who'd played with him. I thought his behavior at the end of the previous day a bit more coherent and more protown (see: less completely random/off-base) then it had been to that point.
This was wrt to your Lalendra vote day2, and it kinda bothered me at the time, but day 2 got cut short and day 3 got subsumed by other topics of discussion.
I dunno if I can articulate why I didn't like this, but I'll try.
The general argument against her day2 was that she completely forget about you in her readslist after she had a whole argument with you about associatives day 1, prompting declare you her biggest scumread; it didn't look natural for a townplayer to forget about their biggest scumread.
But then she started arguing *your* side of the argument, prompting the above quote.
The thing that felt kinda off about it is that it feels more *personal* than scumhunt-y. Like you were feeling vindicated by the fact that she was making an objectively silly argument given her day1 stance. Like the connotation I got from that quote there was more like you were happy you had won this argument, and not per se that you thought you had found scum.
I hope that made sense? I can try that again if it didn't.
My vindication is more in feeling that my scumread is correct, not in the vindication that her argument is silly. Lalendra was already my top read based on rolefishing and then she starts attacking me with this completely nonsensical argument. The argument is so ridiculous that it seems completely insincere to use it or argue for it. After extended debate, Lalendra NEVER admits that her argument is fallacious which just strikes me as being obstinate for no reason. When she goes and contradicts herself its vindication that she never truly believed what she was saying in her accusations towards me, i.e. confirming my belief that the attack was manufactured. It felt like a smoking gun, which is where the 'so happy with my vote' comes from. I mean, my thought process turned out to be completely wrong. But that was my thought process.
In post 1314, skitter30 wrote:
c) Also post 1251 feels off to me.
Like wave accuses you of lying about your role. Instead of accusing him back or confronting him, that whole post was addressed to *me*. Like I know I'm the person who's going to decide here, but I dunno. Like if you're town and thought Wave was lying like I'd have expected you to accuse him of being lying scum and vote him or something.
The post was a response to the claim et all. The top portion is directed at everyone, and then i transition into speaking directly to you. I transition directly to speaking to you because my view here is that wavemode is scum, you are confirmed town, and you have just made points about the possibility of me being TIAMs partner (points which I viewed as unfair, or as misreps, though it seems now the misinterpretation was on my end). There's no point in getting angry with wavemode for making his play, and my denial implicitly indicates that I view him as scum (I think explicitly also); its much more important to convince the conftown that I'm town then make some OMGUS crusade against wavemode. You seem to mention my playstyle as cautious and rational so let me ask you this...what would the cautious and rational player do in this situation? Flame at the accuser, or appeal to the people who will decide how the game will proceed?
In post 1314, skitter30 wrote:
Like your whole reaction seemed kinda tame wrt to Wave if you're town here, since from town!seph's POV, there's a dude who's lying about your role in MYLO and is trying to get you lynched. And you respond by saying 'hey no, skitter, his claim is sketchy and this is why you should believe me'.
Like you voted him and 'threw down the gauntlet' *after* your appeal to me ,and I dunno. I guess I'd expect a more visceral, knee-jerk reaction of 'you're lying' if you're town here.
My priority was not laying down a vote, its defending myself and arguing wave!scum which is what I've been doing. Me voting Wave doesn't really accomplish anything if everyone believes his claim.
You are just a muppet... You have no heart... and cannot feel any pain.
In post 1314, skitter30 wrote:I'm trying to find the posts that made me think you were the investigative so that I can see if this matches the way you were behaving day 3, but I can't pin it to specific posts :/ I think it was a subconscious thing.
This is textbook confirmation bias.
The only thing wave has used to try and prove his claim is a really bad crumb. That's extremely telling.
Remember jjh's recent game? That's what playing to a power role looks like. Hinting that the neighborizor needed to be offed regardless of alignment played to my role. Immediately trusting the D1 pr claim because of how it played to my role. Wave has done nothing close to that, and if he had, he would have noted it.
In post 1317, Sephiroth wrote:3) I didn't realize that we were potentially in MYLO when I made my vote, and I was tunneling on TIAMs play and hammer at the end of the day and his subsequent claim which was full of holes. Maybe I should have admitted I didn't realize the situation but I stand by my belief that a quicklynch was pretty unlikely with TIAM as the target (since he was one of the lolvoters you mentioned). It was easier to state that genuine opinion then admit that I didn't think about the possibility initially.
OK, so you're saying that you *hadn't* realized we were in MYLO at that point?
In post 1317, Sephiroth wrote:Thanks. I guess I've got some post traumatic stress from other games on this front.
Ye, I def think you played an awesome game here, no matter your alignment, and would def be interested in playing with you again!
But I kinda have to do my due diligence here and try to figure out if you're trying to manipulate me lol
In post 1317, Sephiroth wrote:I mean, those are valid ways of viewing the vote from your perspective. Voting without properly ascertaining the situation was a bad move objectively regardless of my alignment. I guess the question is whether you believe that I didn't realize we might be in MYLO or that I "didn't realize" (gratuitous air quotes) that we were in MYLO. If it means anything to you, I will BS my way out of mistakes as either alignment because my playstyle means that most players read my mistakes as scumtells. Players with a less analytical/rational playstyle might be given the benefit of the doubt, but I usually am not.
Right, so this is the tricky bit, trying to figure out if you didn't realize, or if you 'didn't realize'.
Two def got bussed by at least one partner, if not both - I think the only holdout was wave and me-ish. And tbh .... I kinda agree with him that it would be kinda akward for a partner to go out on a limb for TIAM there instead of just committing to a bus.
Like ... scum knows TIAM is scum. Scum knows he's almost for sure getting lynched. Scum knows that they won't look that good after he flips goon. Does scum actually try to defend him - TIAM specifically
- there? When he's just a goon and isn't like the best scum on the team? Or just go all in on a bus for the towncred?
LIke why would scum go through the effort of trying to defend him there? If he ended up getting lynched, they'd be tied inextricably to him. (Btw, whoever scum is, I think you did a really good job distancing; I tend to scumhunt a lot through associatives and they've been practically worthless this game between the four of you lol)
And I totally feel you on the rational thing. You're right. I am holding you to a higher standard cuz, well from what I've seen this game, I think you're a pretty good player.
Like that disastrous 1946 I keep on mentioning - like I did something completely idiotic as scum, and one dude basically said to me that he thought I was too smart of a player to do something that stupid as town. And so he just couldn't see me as town. And he was right. And that's kinda what this is reminding of tbh (although this isn't nearly as stupid as what I did that game lol; turns out putting a guy at L-1 on page 7 is like not a good idea, especially when he claims cop immediately thereafter )
In post 1317, Sephiroth wrote:The post was a response to the claim et all. The top portion is directed at everyone, and then i transition into speaking directly to you. I transition directly to speaking to you because my view here is that wavemode is scum, you are confirmed town, and you have just made points about the possibility of me being TIAMs partner (points which I viewed as unfair, or as misreps, though it seems now the misinterpretation was on my end). There's no point in getting angry with wavemode for making his play, and my denial implicitly indicates that I view him as scum (I think explicitly also); its much more important to convince the conftown that I'm town then make some OMGUS crusade against wavemode. You seem to mention my playstyle as cautious and rational so let me ask you this...what would the cautious and rational player do in this situation? Flame at the accuser, or appeal to the people who will decide how the game will proceed?
I mean, from your POV he should be confscum for doing this ... it isn't exactly an OMGUS situation - or at least, what I'd apply that term to. (Like I'd call OMGUS to be like mid-day 2 I call you scum and you retaliate by scumreading me). I'd call this more of a 1v1 since the two of you are in a direct cc here. Like that's what I was kinda missing from that post .... yes you mention that he's scum, but he should literally be confscum from your POV here and you just seem to lacking that conviction I guess.
In post 1317, Sephiroth wrote:My priority was not laying down a vote, its defending myself and arguing wave!scum which is what I've been doing. Me voting Wave doesn't really accomplish anything if everyone believes his claim.
Like this is true .... but from your POV he's confscum so we need to lynch him to win. Like you voting wave and convincing us is kinda important for that to happen. Yes defending yourself is important, but I guess what I'm saying is that from your POV, you have confscum, and you seem less interested in pursuing that than making sure you don't get lynched.
Like if you contrast your behavior with Serg (had a guilty on Two) or wave (claims to have an effective guilty on you), both of them approached it from the angle of 'hey I found confscum and we need to lynch them'. You're approaching it more from 'hey this is why we shouldn't lynch me and also hey look at conf!scum wave'. Like it's more survivalistic and less 'let's lynch the confscum', which I tend to think is more likely to come from scum. Like you're focused on making sure *you* aren't the lynch today instead of lynching scum. Like I get that if you're town we lose .... but we also lose if we don't lynch confscum wave today.
Yay I figured out what was bothering me and how to articulate it lol. Yeah the above is what I was trying to get at before. It's not that I expect you to flame at wave so much as that I that imagine that a townplayer here would be trying to get the confscum lynched instead of focusing on trying to defend themselves.
