Open 703: Masons and Mafia Town Win!


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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:59 am

Post by CommKnight »

In post 177, CommKnight wrote:
In post 162, Hongzi wrote: but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).
M
hmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

A
s for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.
In post 182, CommKnight wrote:
S
o we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

O
nto my reads thus far:

N
ot Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>
Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>
Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>
Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,
^ My little "Mason" soft to try to draw a scum kill attempt. XD
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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:00 am

Post by CommKnight »

In post 698, Almost50 wrote:
In post 692, CommKnight wrote:Hahhaha, the only Masons I was right about was A50 and Hong.
:lol:

How could you have thought I was a Mason and still thought I got shot at?
Well I was retracting my mason read after that when you didn't seem to pick up on what I was asking of you.
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:00 am

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

JunkoChan was such an ML bait even I would hit that
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:00 am

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

In post 700, CommKnight wrote:
In post 177, CommKnight wrote:
In post 162, Hongzi wrote: but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).
M
hmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

A
s for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.
In post 182, CommKnight wrote:
S
o we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

O
nto my reads thus far:

N
ot Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>
Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>
Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>
Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,
^ My little "Mason" soft to try to draw a scum kill attempt. XD
lmao!
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:02 am

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

In post 695, Alisaes French Maid wrote:I was pretty impressed by how coordinated the town was this game.
Nice job!
Yeah town really did a good ass job here
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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:04 am

Post by CommKnight »

Lesson to take from this: A50 and I make a very deadly town duo.
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:04 am

Post by MawhrinSkel »

In post 693, Almost50 wrote:I also would like to thank my fellow Masons for letting me do my stunt at the start of the game. I bet you guys were like "what the freak is he doing?" and then wish that there was a Masons PT to reprimand me for my play.

I dunno about Godel saying he would've shot me. I bet almost everyone else thought I was a VT, apart from my fellow Masons of course.
pretty much gut feeling, same with my other 2 shots, I have had almost no time read for a bit more than a week, I still haven't read all the posts that led up to my lynch, going to catch up on them tomorrow, you guys posted a lot. When I posted my read list I listed the players I thought where mason at the top in hopes that maybe fitz or 2iam will catch on to it if I ever have to shot. But i changed my mind about hongzi later, and thought monkey was more masony
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:06 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 705, CommKnight wrote:Lesson to take from this: A50 and I make a very deadly town duo.
:lol:

Actually, I will PM you shortly about this. :wink:

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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:11 am

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:13 am

Post by CommKnight »

In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?
Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled. :)
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:14 am

Post by MawhrinSkel »

In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?
Shameless plug too or my mini normal, first time modding on this site, also 5 or 6 players away from it filling
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:17 am

Post by Hongzi »

I'd be in for yet another Monkey game.
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:22 am

Post by Hongzi »

In post 709, CommKnight wrote:
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?
Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled. :)
Is that still Battle of the Bands?
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:23 am

Post by CommKnight »

In post 712, Hongzi wrote:
In post 709, CommKnight wrote:
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?
Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled. :)
Is that still Battle of the Bands?
Yep
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:24 am

Post by Almost50 »

I was first to pre-in for Comm's game, if anyone enjoyed my eccentric play. :P

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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:25 am

Post by Hongzi »

I've got the required experience to play that now, no bastard experience though.
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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:25 am

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

In post 709, CommKnight wrote:
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?
Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled. :)
Socrates?
Hongzi wrote:I'd be in for yet another Monkey game.
Awwwwww <3
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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:26 am

Post by JunkoChan »

sure why not. I'll join Comm's game
For how to play with JunkoChan, click on my wiki!

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you do know if you kill me that's a one way ticket to execution-ville ~Iprobablysuck
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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:28 am

Post by JunkoChan »

Where is the signup @CommKnight?
For how to play with JunkoChan, click on my wiki!

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you do know if you kill me that's a one way ticket to execution-ville ~Iprobablysuck
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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:29 am

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

I'm too pussy to play bastard games. I kinda like gamesolving and not be at the mercy of plot twists lmao
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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:31 am

Post by MawhrinSkel »

In post 718, JunkoChan wrote:Where is the signup @CommKnight?
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66263&start=4075
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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:44 am

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

Hongzi, I'll sheep you this time. Tell me where you'll sign up and I'll go.
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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:47 am

Post by Hongzi »

I signed up for Battle but pick out a game you want to play and I'll sign up for that too!
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:52 am

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

Nah let's stick with Battle of the Bands. I kinda feel like this game will fuck me up.
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:58 am

Post by CommKnight »

I think I might be overfilled now actually looking at it. 4 spots and now 6 ins but the list hasn't been updated in a few days. But I'm sure there'll be 1-2 replaceouts early in the game, always are if you guys want to stay on for replacement queue (we'll see how many confirm when they finally update the list).
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