Open 701: Pick Yer Power X/Y Game Over!

[Creature]

We could like experiment a new wagon.

[CommKnight]

Why does Aster!scum = Viomi!town?

If you don't understand how this basic logic works, no wonder you can't understand me pushing people lower on the list than Misa.

Here's a question that answers your question when you think about it some more: Why would scum both pick the SAME NUMBER?

[CommKnight]

Also in case I die before the end of tonight: 1 scum in 1, 1 scum in 5. I'm calling that bet early. The third is still a bit of guesswork, but this is almost with certainty that I am right here. Both 1's and both 5's are voting me.

Also feel free to read some nightless games that just ended. One specifically that had 4 scum and the rest VTs I had 3 people voting me by page 5 and all 3 of them were scum. It's because I'm an active threat and this game where I'm a PR I'm a deadly threat to scum. I find it funny Cheeky pushes this "A dead PR scum is better than a dead non-PR scum." I can almost translate this to scum saying "A dead PR town is better than a dead non-PR town." And it's so bloody clear.

I can lynch: Aster, Cheeky, or Chip. I think these are our 3 scum, but we need ALL of the people not scum-reading me to agree on a single one. Which is the problem we keep facing so instead of one of them compromising, one of these people are going to last-minute hammer a town PR to "prevent a no-lynch" instead of compromising on a TR of theirs that let's face it. Is probably a scumbag.

[CommKnight]

Like the translation to me says Viomi is a town VT. One who doesn't even realize that I'm helping to prevent their mislynch today by avoiding the wagon now even though it could save my own hide today.

[Creature]

From your options, I'm most fine with Aster or Chip.

[Creature]

2 scum in 1

or 7 or

5

and 1 scum above MisaTange

.

Aka:
northsidegal
CityElectric
Lalendra
Aster

[Creature]

Chip Butty is more of a question mark for me.

[Aster]

I could rip apart pretty much every sentence in CommKnight's last six posts, but this point I'm wondering whether I should still bother replying to him at all. He doesn't seem to be a troll, but with yet another baseless and retarded assertion that there is scum among the 1s and 5s (which has been statistically disproven many pages ago), I'm starting to think that this guy just lives in his own world and ignores all statements and facts that don't fit into his own plot, and then hopes that people will believe him if he just repeats himself often enough.

I've stated my case already. Since then, CommKnight has only been digging himself an even deeper hole instead of alleviating concerns. Frankly, I can't quite figure out why this guy hasn't been lynched yet.

[Creature]

Wait, you think CK is actually scum or just a huge moron?

[Aster]

Wait, you think CK is actually scum or just a huge moron?

I think he's scum for the reasons posted mostly in post 958, augmented somewhat with his business around voting Assembler and "pseudohardclaiming but not actually willing to tell my role". In addition to being scum, he's a huge moron as well.

[KidAmn]

Ayyyyyy

Ya boi has work in like 6 hours so I'mma drop a fresh

unvote

just in case, will do a little light reading before I drop off, and will be back with spicy hot takes in the morning

I like this guy already :3 Welcome.

I don't think light reading is too helpful considering the amount of time we have left in the day. So either you are going to have to read a lot all at once if you want to cover everything or start your light reading at day 2 and read day 1 later.

Blatant ass-kissing noted. Also, bish I read 90 page D1s for fun, this ain't shit.

Spoiler: GIANT FUCKING READTHROUGH NOTES

If I were a PGO I would want the town to know that so that no protective roles get themselves killed trying to save me; is the death a scum really worth the loss of 2 (or more) townies with at least one being a protective role? At the very least I'd probably fake claim as either PGO or commuter so that the scum are more sceptical of voting for me.

And at no point am I backtracking here. I was always going to back down on the prospect of a claim if you explained you had no desire to do so; I'm sorry if I didn't explicitly state that in my first message. Since you have now said you don't want to role claim, that's the end of it.

"I AM NOT BACKTRACKING.... I'M JUST UHMMM.... EHHMM... FINISHED WITH THE CONVERSATION!!!!!1"

I had no intent to start much of a conversation. What I expected from that post was either "no I don't want to role claim" or "yes, I'm this role". The result of a yes may have led to a discussion of where to go from there but a no would have had no effect on how to play that day. I did not anticipate such a negative reaction to the prospect of a confirmed PR player revealing what that PR is if they themselves had deemed it something that was beneficial to the town.

I can't wait to see what earth-shattering revelations lead to this slot not being strung up like Miley Cyrus on a construction site

Ooh, "ill informed" setup spec, lovely, just what I wanted for Christmas

Oh, Creature's in this. I wonder if I'll see The Tell here or not

What I'm worried about mutantdevle is that he has no idea of how mafia works here. So I'm thinking his rolefishing is town motivated even if it's pretty bad.

I’m familiarising myself with how things work on this site. I’m yet to complete a game here but I am currently in 3 of them. On the EE forums however I have played at least 6 games and even hosted one. The mafia culture there is a lot different though. So basically I’m not completely inexperienced and I wouldn’t want anyone to discard me as that.

I’ve been known to have a more obscure way of thinking than most players and I usually play with a plan or strategy in mind. I’m at my best when I am able to plan out how I want days or nights to go. I genuinely thought that a role claim would be good for the town if her role was something that would put uncertainty into the mafia whilst benefiting the town. Obviously, no one agrees with that. I get the sense that others don’t see WIFOM as such a strategic tool.

Ah, the earth-shattering revelation is that mutant is a wee lil babby who didn't go through Newbie like almost everyone else, k. Not buying it, but k.

As I said, I didn't have it too hand as I didn't need to read it. Now can we leave it at that and get on with the game instead of having some off-topic smokescreen about who should be finding stuff for you?

You didn't have it to hand? Lol what does that even mean here? Do you need your secretary to pull it from the file room or something?

I didn't have a link for it... I shouldn't have to go looking for it for you.

Why are you trying to keep off topic conversations going? Sounds to me like you're trying to hide something.

This little back and forth has being going... well, back and forth for like 3 pages at this point and both of you are doing an excellent job at avoiding really getting dragged into anything AI. Chip's reaction to Wilky voting them smells off. Pretty sure one of these two is scum based on this interaction + a healthy dollop of gut feeling, could be theatre?

VOTE: Chip
You should know better than this.

I see previous-me was almost as dashingly handsome and intelligent

Creature is doing The Tell but Creature is also smart enough to know about The Tell and play off it. This sentence is meaningless and basically serves only as a reminder to myself to watch Creature.

It can wait for a moment, consider my vote on Mutant for now, his rolefishing was super bad. But I need to know the answer to this question because I think I have an idea.

"Consider my vote on X" always feels super-weaselly to me.

Not gonna quote Lalendra 125 but damn that's some goodposting.

Even less beneficial is the way in which Mutant pointed out who should be the first NK, like are you kidding me?

I never said she

should

be the first NK. I was simply stating that, as the only player that is 100% definately a PR, that makes her the most likely candidate for the NK.

See this also gives me pause on Mutant because assuming this is being run exactly as per the wiki PYP X/Y, Mafia would have daytalk and there's no need for him to have said all this out loud if he was trying to signal buddies

Maybe they ARE just a moron, or it's all Too Dumb To Be Scum Theatre... more on this story as it develops

Well Texcat, there's the off chance they didn't have pre-game chat. It goes on to my next point which North already sees.

It is highly unlikely scum picked the same number, that means that in the event we lynch a scummer in such a group, we can theroetically auto-clear the other person(s) who chose that number.

Also based on the logic scum want PRs. Misa actually gets some bonus points. Sure they'll be ahead of anyone who picks a duplicate number, but they'll never be ahead of people who picked a unique number, thus possibly giving up almost all PRs right from the get-go.

We also have another set-up advantage. Vanilla Townies are actually pretty powerful. If they landed a VT role, they know someone in the list above them got the role pair they picked. Which means if someone below them fake claims a role, they can be immediately called out.

But for now, that's what I got. Mutant is definitely a good start with his role fishing.

This is 100% speculation, 100% WIFOM, and 100% jumping on the easy target instead of actually scumhunting

I do not accept I was role fishing I was simply asking a fish if they'd be willing to jump out of the water. I had no intention of throwing my hook into the water if she said no.

This just sounds like semantics.

Texcat had free choice of role. She had the freedom to choose absolutely any role on the list without worry that someone else may take the role. As a result, she could choose whichever role she thought was the strongest.

Hence she potentially has the strongest and most valuable role in the game.

Fake claiming as something either less useful or potentially damaging for the mafia if they were to target her could prevent them from doing so. Personally,

I would consider the act of fake claiming as a little selfish

since there are the dangers of someone CC and it would divert the kill to someone else but I put the option there for if she wanted to take it.

Either way, starting a conversation about her role is anti-town, to me. If she has the strongest and most valuable role in the game, why bring attention to it? You said it might benefit town to know what it was, but it also benefits scum. And then you say fake-claiming would be selfish, but by bringing up the topic of her claim (whether you think it was role-fishing or not is irrelevant), you are leading to one or the other of those eventualities. If she indicates she doesn't want to claim, you have still cast a spotlight on her, turning her into lynchbait if she is town, and thereby potentially losing one of our biggest assets.

I mean, partially yes, but also... no? Anti-town, thanks to the influx of dumbflux, isn't always locked on as scum. I could name like a dozen players whose playstyles are inherently antitown but they're not always scum, some people are just fluxing idiots. Man I love the word flux.

No. If I role claim I may as well place the vote on myself.

No claim = no sympathy of being hammered. If you don't claim, you will get hammered.

I don’t want sympathy. Being hammered and role claiming has the same consequences. There is no way out for me or my role here.

Congratulations on the first smart post you've made all game, shame it happened at L-1

I have reads written out in a rough draft of my post that I plan to make when I am lynched but I think they need some work. In general, I'm not willing to post my reads yet until either I'm forced to by being lynched or later during the day. (I've previously been scrutinised for posting reads too early in the game since joining this site).

Oh honey, no. That's... yikes. That's one way to swing the meter away from VI, I guess.

Ugh, I'm feeling so lazy to answer these generic accusations.

I've used genuine and forced because:

Town will naturally look town, aka genuine.
Scum will try to look town, aka forced.

Not having this as a valid way to get out of it all.

VOTE: Creature

So far there I think Scum could include:

Creature
Chip Butty

Not fully convinced that Mutant is town I think as i've said a few times most things he's done could be attributed to idiot town or too scum.

Kinda feeling this right now, Creature has stopped dropping The Tell at this point

I've made it pretty clear:

mutantdevle did something antitown, but not necessarily scummy. Maybe he thought it was the best play for town and he looks pretty newb to me.

tbh the reason I'm townreading him is not because of his rolefish, which can be ambiguous.

I'm townreading him because he still keeps producing content in a way I find genuine.

I'm against the wagon because it reached the point it's a wagon to lynch. mutantdevle is already posting content and there should have enough out of him to sort, so the wagon on him must be to lynch.

I'm mainly afraid he might end just being a newbtown and it would mean we wasted an entire day on him, and we'll possibly have to start from zero next day with two less town.

I'm proposing for us to leave the wagon for now, doesn't mean we shouldn't revisit it if we end to the conclusion he's scum, but that's just later. Instead, we keep hunting for scum without the mindset of "mutant must be scum". We could always return to his wagon anyway.

At this point people have pointed out like half a dozen "slips" in Mutant's posting that look like utter hot trash but Creature is still ride-or-die-ing this shit and it feels like someone who knows exactly how Mutant is gonna flip

Mafia is much more complex than simply picking a mistake and associating it to scum.

This is also horrifically reductive and not the point people were making at all

I'm tempted to policy vote Pisskop, but these useless playstyles usually turn out to be town, in my experience. But no lylo for him if he doesn't start contributing at some point.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Creature

but these useless playstyles usually turn out to be town

Yeah, this.

Completely ignores Chip Butty's vote on him. "Hey KidAmn, that's weird, why would he do that?" Well said, Billy. This is what we call 'distancing' and it's a typical scumtell.

that coma is extraneous.

I'll trust to you lot that lynching my slot is a really shitty copout

Remember when I said that anti-town isn't always scum? Yeah, this is the kind of shitter I was talking about.

I still think Creature is likely scum.

If I'm lynching pisskop, it's not gonna be by PL.

Hey wilky, would you try a different wagon?

Hey look Billy, they're at it again! Oh those scamps.

I'd also encourage people to check out CommKnight's meta. The basic conclusion that I'd draw from it is that he seems to be more active in most other games than he is in this one.

Posted right after CommKnight goes V/LA. Presented without comment.

Anyone up to wagon CommKnight?

I think Comm's general inactivity is more likely to come from scum.

I'm gonna show you one scum who's just in the background watching town eat itself:

VOTE: CommKnight

Oh nice, nobody even dared to look at my reasoning for CommKnight.

Because you provided so much...

Pisskop finally realises they're gonna get the rope and starts wordvomiting. 'tis a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Congrats on making yourself so easily wagonable that there's literally no information to be gained from it, I guess.

Huh yeah, there are plenty of good lynch options.

Too bad the top two wagons are bad lynch options.

I don't think he's a liability, atleast not the biggest liability.

Who would you say is the biggest liability then?

Anyone who somehow got to the conclusion pisskop and mutant are both scum with me as scum defending them and still somehow defends it without ever doubting.

Which is who? I feel like you're making soft pushes without really naming names, and leaving yourself room to change your mind later.

Hard townread.

Oh my god literally 10 posts in a row by ChipButty, condense your fucking thoughtstream bro

Aight that gets me to page 20, gonna eat some food and then swing the veiny engorged bat of justice at the 2nd half of this shitpile

[Creature]

"pisskop was a reasonable wagon"

[Creature]

Congratulations, northsidegal. You won your scum game. I hope you enjoyed playing scum even though it wasn't much of a challenge.

[Creature]

You too, Lalendra. Nobody even dared to touch a finger on you.

[Creature]

Also congrats for the third scum that I haven't found yet even though it doesn't matter anymore.

[Lalendra]

Is that just a blatant AtE?

I am really glad I read that spoiler text because all of it was amusing but I literally just cackled at

and then swing the veiny engorged bat of justice at the 2nd half of this shitpile

[Lalendra]

I don't know how I feel about Aster v. Comm. I think there are much scummier people that we can probably agree to lynch *cough*Creature,Viomi*cough* until we sort out whether this is TvT.

[Viomi]

Why would scum both pick the SAME NUMBER?

In order to throw you off and make them seem like not scumbuddies so people like you would conftown someone after their scumbuddy died?

Your argument is WIFOM.

[Viomi]

I find it funny Cheeky pushes this "A dead PR scum is better than a dead non-PR scum." I can almost translate this to scum saying "A dead PR town is better than a dead non-PR town." And it's so bloody clear.

So.. admitting to blatant misrep then?

[Viomi]

Congratulations, northsidegal. You won your scum game. I hope you enjoyed playing scum even though it wasn't much of a challenge.

You too, Lalendra. Nobody even dared to touch a finger on you.

Hey, I'd join either of these wagons.

[Creature]

Would rather do Lalendra over northsidegal because of PRs.

[Chip Butty]

So Viomi, you REALLY think no scum chose 1 as their number? Not a single one out of the 3 of them?

Here is a simple reason why scum would not choose 1:

Either they get the top spot, if nobody else picks 1, or they get a low spot if one or more others pick it too. Obviously the latter is undesirable. If they get the top spot, everybody thinks they obviously got a primo PR and pretty soon starts to wonder why they haven't been NKed, especially a doctor if there is one in the game.

[KidAmn]

Spoiler: Vascular, Erect Sledgehammer of Why Did I Replace In, Part 2

Texcat - 2
Northsidegal - 3
Assemblerotws - 4
CommKnight - 6
Mutantdevle - 8

MisaTange - 30 - Town

CityElectric - 5
Chip Butty - 5
Wilky - 7
Creature - 7
Lalendra - 7
Aster - 1

Pisskop - 1 - Town

Viomi - 1

I have an idea of narrowing down scum, but it's completely gut for now and it's something maybe only I would do. But it's interesting scum didn't aim at someone who was higher up on the list for a better chance to kill a PR. My theory? Scum in the top 5 people. They don't want to narrow it down for some reason but still want to kill the mid-tier players to snipe out any PRs that got through.

I'm thinking we look more into Chip and City today. 5 is a sweet spot for scum to pick a number. So my bet? 1 town, 1 scum, right there.

I kind of hate that Comm Knight is probably correct here

We could like focus on getting scum.

There are plenty of never-pressured-this-game players that deserve to be pressured.

I love how sarcastically you say this as if you're the only one pressuring anyone or trying to get scum, yet I don't see you pressuring anybody at all.

I mean this is kind of like

factually false

Most of that "pressure" has been wrapped up in whining about people thinking he might be scum, but it's false

5 is a sweet spot for scum to pick a number.

Yeah, I've had that feeling one of them had to be scum.

You get scummer almost with every post.

But then I see shit like this that screams distancing from someone I SR'd highly after part 1 and???

Back later. CK and Creature: If you're town, try to post something more intelligent.

Back later. CK and Creature: If you're town, try to post something more intelligent.

Why didn't scum attack someone higher than MisaTange?

An excellent question. Now how about you use some of your bountiful intelligence to answer it as well? Or is your brilliance better used by just shoving the actual scumhunting to others?

---

Actually, how about I answer it too.

Reading through Misa's ISO, he did generate a moderate amount of statements. Neither a huge contributor nor an useless lurker. Given the rampant amount of inactivity, I'd put him above average, actually. He thought PK was antitown but not scum, was suspicious of mutant, Creature and me.

He's nowhere among the main pushers against the mutant/Creature bandwagon, and I'm just going to ignore his last target. It seems unlikely that Misa was killed because the mafia percieved him as a danger or because they wanted to frame somebody, so I think that the kill was motivated by one of the following:

1. The mafia wanted a confusing kill to confuse town;
   
2. There are lots of scum among the five players above Misa, and scum didn't want to wield out all the townies;
   
3. There were no viable target higher on the list than Misa.

In the first case, there's nothing town can learn, so I won't pay attention to in in the rest of this post. Point 2 and 3 do actually both suggest that there is a fair amount of scum above Misa. Let's think about why players #1–5 weren't killed if we assume they are town:

• Texcat: being the first player in the list and therefore an obvious target, the mafia may have strayed from him because they're scared of the doctor and/or watcher?
  
• Northside: maybe still scared of the doctor? Alternatively, maybe texcat is scum and they were afraid killing the second-ranking player would make town wonder why mafia didn't go after texcat?
  
• Assembler: is inactive. Maybe the scum would like to keep inactives in the game?
  
• CommKnight: not sure. Not very active, but seems active enough to be considered a target if scum was out for powerroles. Possible scum?
  
• Mutant: given the amount of bad attention this guy has gotten yesterday, killing mutant would be a stupid move regardless of whether he is scum.

In particular Northside and CommKnight look suspicious. Northside definitely passes the contributory standards to be considered for nightkilling, and has solid chances at having a powerrole. Aside from possibly being protected by the doctor, I'm a bit curious why she wasn't targetted.

CommKnight, further down the list, definitely doesn't look like he was going to be protected by the doctor. He wasn't a huge contributor, but he isn't too far below Misa. Comm also went after Creature and Mutant. It does appear unlikely to me that the mafia would move their kill two spots down merely on the difference in contributiveness between them.

VOTE: Northside

That quote plus vote = I agree with Aster and think we should look at Northside or CommKnight today

Not a fan really of the way Viomi is interacting. Just really seems like they're not putting a lot of critical thought into the process. I'm not so sure I buy scum!creature just yet, the failure to tell us whether he played a PYP in the past doesn't seem inherently scummy to me. Mutant is also becoming less scummy as time goes on; not necessarily that the rolefishing seems less scummy to me, moreso that nothing since then has pinged me as scummy and I'm no longer convinced that the question in and of itself was scummy. I guess Mutant is null for now. I would definitely like to hear more from Comm and NSG but not sure I'm willing to call them "suspicious" just yet.

VOTE: viomi

This is a really weird and disingenous attack on someone who had arguably done the most scumhunting D1

Like...

I did a search for 'pick your power' games on this forum which gave the following 8 results other than this game:


I have analysed each of these games and recorded data and statistics regarding the draft order, role choices and night kills. I'm not going to be releasing this information as I think it would be a bad idea for scum to know it because, if they did, then they would be able to make themselves less predictable. Besides, I doubt very many of you would take statistics as a reason to vote but it WILL be something that influences my opinion. Based on these statistics, I have a FoS on people that I won't name yet. However, the data backs up my reads on a certain individual who I also will not name yet.

I won't be using this data as the basis of my reads but rather I will be using them to back my reads up. As a side note for the future, if you don't believe statistics and data can be used to predict how players are going to act or be as scum or town, then don't ask me to clarify any statements about it in the future if I ever say things like "statistically X is scum". Because if you think those kinds of reasons are invalid then just ignore my statements involving them instead of asking me to try and convince you of my opinion involving them.

I like ya chutzpah kid. I admire ya moxie, squirt. I approve of your balls, pipsqueak.

But nah, this ain't actually scumhunting, it's jerking yourself off to meta, and the whole "Based on these statistics, I have a FoS on people that I won't name yet." and "I won't be using this data as the basis of my reads but rather I will be using them to back my reads up." thing don't sit right

Hey guys, when I inevitably get mislynched or NK'd and going through my ISO, remember this: Chip Butty is definitely town.

Consider me pocketed!

This is a 100% town interaction by a v town player /s

The question is: Chip or City. Which one of those two is scum?

My guess would be Chip.

But I think the Viomi lynch is better. I think there is a scum among the people who picked 1, and I think that's much more likely than among the people who picked 5. The question should be: Viomi or Aster. And the answer is Viomi.

Honestly, I can roll with this, but I have high suspicion one of the 5's is scum.

VOTE: Viomi - A 1, buddying, gunning for the PRs by aiming higher than Misa. They can die.

So 2 of your reasons are setup spec and "buddying" is like... the most generic thing that can be aimed at townblocs by scum. K.

@Chip

1.) I know my alignment.
2.) It plays into a theory I have where 1, 3, 5 are likely the numbers scum chose. Maybe it's part OCD on my end, but it does seem likely scum wouldn't just pick like 1,2,3 or something cheesy like that. But they also wouldn't be completely random. Because their goal is to get all 3 of them to be PRs. Which means they're more likely to pick a number that would get them closer to that goal.
3.) The number 5. What townie would pick it? (Obviously one did pick it though), it's just as number that rings "Possible 2nd/3rd in order if all the townies pick the first 4 numbers".

Pffffffffffffftttthhhhaaahahahaa oh wait you're serious let me kick it into maximum overlol

VOTE: Viomi
Despite their claims, they're actually looking less knowledgeable about Pick Your Power vs. Pick Your Poison than they did at the start.

I even already addressed this exact sentiment, are you reading my posts or even the fucking thread? Or are you just sheeping along, not really caring who gets lynched?

Have you seen how many posts previous-me made? They just DGAF.

Uh...lynching scum? You know, the usual?

WHY

do you think I'm scum? What is your

reasoning?

Why are you playing dumb and refusing to give information?

Uh...lynching scum? You know, the usual?

Oh God, are you really this fucking daft? Do you need to go back to middle school English? Fucking facepalm

Apparently. Do you actually have an argument why you are town?

"Why am I scum?"
"Yeah, but, why are you town tho"

Get the fuck outta here

I'd say that, at L-1, you're the one who should be doing the talking.

Tbh I'd rather be lynching Creature...and I'm a bit worried I'm on the same wagon as CK...

"I want this lynch... but lemme put Viomi at L-1 with no case for a hot second"

It concerns me how quickly lynches come together in this town. All it seems to take is a small push and then the sheep come flooding in. May I ask to everyone voting Viomi, where were you yesterday when concerns with Viomi were originally raised? You had the perfect opportunity to express your distrust of her then yet it is now that everyone is flocking on to her.

Where was

I

yesterday? Voting for Viomi. And his ad hominem argument calling us morons for lynching him is not really convincing me that he's town.

Tbh I'd rather be lynching Creature...and I'm a bit worried I'm on the same wagon as CK...

Yeah, Creature's on my scum list too, but let's resolve the 1 picks.

Some of the reads below are POE. For example, I have a town read on Aster because I don't think Aster and Viomi can both be scum.

Texcat - 2

Northsidegal - 3

Assemblerotws - 4

CommKnight - 6
Mutantdevle - 8

MisaTange - 30

CityElectric - 5

Chip Butty - 5

Wilky - 7

Creature - 7

Lalendra - 7

Aster - 1

Pisskop - 1

Viomi - 1

Hard town reading my predecessor who had fuck-all posts? The fuck is this readlist?

@Mutant - These posts are the ones I disliked.

271 - Moving vote from Mutant to PK while still saying Mutant was her top SR.
352 - Naked votes Aster, after Aster unvoted PK and voted Mutant - who was still Viomi's top SR.
398 - Says that Mutant's lynch would give us the most info and she's "pretty sure" he's scum - while voting Aster.
517 - 120ish posts later, "Aster is town", votes PK again. Doesn't explain why attitude on Aster shifted.
577 - Says Chip Butty is "definitely town", but doesn't say why.
590 - Naked votes Northside, quoting a post from Aster which says that both Northside and Comm are suspicious. Doesn't explain why she chose North over Comm, or why she is suddenly listening to the reasoning of someone she was previously voting for.

There's a lot of jumping around, very little explanation or clarity, and direct conflict between posts (and sometimes within the same post). I stopped reading the ISO after 590 because frankly I don't feel like dealing with the toxicity.

If you don't want to read a player's posts but want to continue voting them, please do me a favor:
Go tell the list mods you are not playing to win and are therefore screwing over the rest of us. Enjoy your ban and go play something else.

Unless you're scum, that is. In which case, good job.

Of all that case what you jump on is the last sentence? Like... IDK man

The whole Chip/Viomi back and forth is super-weird and I'm 90% sure at minimum one of them is scum but they're both just jerking the levers so hard

Creature makes good point re: wagon composition but with how schizo half this town is it's hella hard to work out who's scum sheeping and who's just "ehhhhh IDK I'll just go with who shouts loudest"

I'm trying to work out what the complete lack of followthrough on the Viomi Wagon means... like, there's so little actual push back to it, it's just people REEEEEEin at each other about how bad they are

You're here, care to reply to my response to your "case"? Or are you just going to continue sheeping?

I didn't really feel the need to respond, nothing you said changed my mind. Obviously I read the posts surrounding the ones I quoted, and still found them noteworthy, so I wasn't swayed by your argument since you didn't present any new information.

Bruh that ain't a response

I've been reading through CommKnight's ISO and I came across something really interesting. During day 1, he said:

However, today I'd prefer a Mutant lynch as priority #1, he is the most anti-town player here and his play is definitely a scum perspective looking for info on town PRs.

Then, during the second day he said:

We continue with pushing people below Misa, I'm even including Mutant to avoid lynching today and I fucking SR the shit out of that slot. But protecting our PRs is much more valuable.

The interesting part is that during the first day, he wanted to lynch mutant. Then, during the second day when the NK indicated a high scum density in the top 5, he suddenly went like "We can't lynch mutant! We might lynch a powerrole!"

Amusingly, the probability that mutant has a powerrole has remained constant between these two days. If he's so against lynching the top 5 because they contain powerroles, then he should also have been against lynching the top 5 because they contain powerroles yesterday. What new information did we get on day two that could've made him so gung-ho of a sudden? The only new information that instigated him is

that there is probably a high scum density above Misa

.

A bit ironic, isn't it? He is fine lynching the top 5 during day 1, then learns that there is probably scum among the top 5, and suddenly he vehemently opposes lynching the top 5.

More amusingly, he's completely fine, and even pushing for, lynching one of the place 7/8 players (City and Chip, the number "5" crowd.) City ranks directly below mutant in terms of chance of being scum (City having an absolute 12.5% chance less of having a powerrole according to his own list; I think a relative 12.5%/absolute 7.3% would be a somewhat better estimate.)

Even though he is willing to lynch a "5" player based on mere gut, he will let his "fucking SR" mutant live merely because mutant is 12.5% more likely to have a powerrole.

This just doesn't seem like sane town play.

Going with a relative stupid lynch based on draft order instead of your huge scumread merely because of a 12.5% chance of hitting a powerrole is insanity. Even more insane is that the cause that he's no longer fine with lynching his massive scumread is because his scumread falls amongst the players with high scum density.

Oh, and here comes the best part:

You know what? Fuck it.

VOTE: Assembler.

At least when it all backfires, I can say I told you so.

Now that his business with "protect the powerroles" has somewhat backfired, he's more than happy to just lynch Assembler. What happened to your "fucking SR" on mutant? Do you realise that according to your own logic, Assembler is a whopping 25% more likely to have a powerrole than mutant?

It looks to me like

you don't actually care about the powerroles

. After attracting attention with your protection scheme, you're just jumping on the Assembler wagon now so you may be proven right tomorrow. If you really gave up on the protection agenda you pushed this whole time, then you'd be going back to mutant or somebody else you seriously scumread. But no, you're jumping on the new wagon that will probably lynch a town powerrole and prove yourself right tomorrow.

At this point things actually start to make sense. Here is the timeline of CommKnight's thought process:

1. During the first day, CommKnight wants to lynch mutant because the town has rallied against mutant and he seems like an easy lynch;
   
2. During the first night, the scum decided to kill MisaTange because there was no viable target above Misa due to high scum density and not wanting to narrow the surviving top players down to only those who are scum;
   
3. During the second day, CommKnight continues the push to not kill top players because (1) there is relatively many scum among them, and (2) even if they lynch a town player there, they'd end up leaving isolating the scum top players. He covers up his intentions by whining about lynching powerroles;
   
4. CommKnight doesn't actually have anything against mutant. He seemed an easy lynch yesterday, but today lynching mutant would mean lynching among the top 5, which is a bad idea because of the above reasons. He decides to use the "powerrole" excuse to jump off the wagon he completely supported yesterday.
   
5. Now that his protection racket doesn't seem to be working and a slight bandwagon against Assembler has started, whom CommKnight knows to be town and probably has a powerrole, he jumps on it, so that he can claim he was right all along tomorrow when a town powerrole gets lynched.

Tl;dr: I have high confidence that CommKnight is scum.

Fucking stellar post

How likely it is to Assemble play the game today?

This is the reason I wanted Assemble today to test my theory, because if he does flip town then it's no big loss.

Yo this post is bad and you should feel bad

And not just 'cause it's aimed at my slot, but like... D2 with 2 town dead and the rest of town apparently braindead is not a great time to be lynching folk to "test my theory"

So I've finished my spreadsheet. There are 12 completed pick your power games and I've salvaged as much relevant data from them as I can. But now I'm making different tables that list statistics based on this data. This is so that I don't have to calculate things in the moment when I am curious about a certain probability. For example, I have created a table over how frequently each number is picked and how frequently they are picked by each alignment. If we were to go on player's draft numbers

alone

, then this is the probability each player still alive would be scum:


mutantdevle: 33.33%
CommKnight: 26.67%
Aster: 25.93%
Viomi: 25.93%
texcat: 21.05%
northsidegal: 20%
Chip Butty: 16.67%
CityElectric: 16.67%
Lalendra: 10%
CheekyTeeky: 10%
Creature: 10%
Assemblerotws: 6.9%


Obviously, the number chosen alone would be a terrible reason to scum read someone. But if you are ever split between 2 people to either lynch or use a night action on then you could always look at who has the highest percentage of being scum. (in before this advice gets me killed since I chose the scummiest number).


Another fun fact: we have a 58% chance of winning

This. Is. Not. Scumhunting.

So Viomi, you REALLY think no scum chose 1 as their number? Not a single one out of the 3 of them?

Here is a simple reason why scum would not choose 1:

Either they get the top spot, if nobody else picks 1, or they get a low spot if one or more others pick it too. Obviously the latter is undesirable. If they get the top spot, everybody thinks they obviously got a primo PR and pretty soon starts to wonder why they haven't been NKed, especially a doctor if there is one in the game.

That's WIFOM-wang! Spin the board!

I'm amenable to Mutant/CommKnight/ChipButty
Lalendra feels like they're coasting off goodposting in D1 but pinning someone as coasting scum at this time of year is always eehhhhhhh but the feeling lingers
Ditto NSG, I don't remember her normally being this lurky and that concerns me
Ditto texcat/City Electric but with less experience of their usual play, but with more insidious notes (think dark woody smells laced with birch tar, like the tobacco your mentally abusive grandfather liked)
Cheeky just feels all over the place and I don't have them pinned at all yet

Viomi's reactions feel like me when I decide to go nuclear on a game and that gives me Good Vibes but their nuclear is much more... Yikes than my nuclear (unless you're Mathblade in which case Gandhi in Civ will look like a pussycat)
Creature has gone Full The Tell but like most of my sexual partners post-coitus, I'm not 100% There yet
Aster is probably the most consistent of my townreads

@mod VC please and thank you love you

[texcat]

Creature is still on my scum list. I don't object to mutant\comm\chip, but I would still prefer to lynch Viomi.

[Creature]

X: I'm an innocent child.
Mod: X is indeed an innocent child.
texcat: X is still on my scum list.