Open 704: Switch (Game Over)

[Chip Butty]

I'm more discouraging policy lynches

Are you in a lot of games where policy lynches are going on? Was there a reason you thought there might be one in this game? I can remember the last time I was in a game with a policy lynch.

Would Not_Mafia lolhammer someone he wasn't scum-reading?

UNVOTE:

What does this line of enquiry have to do with scum hunting? Are you just trying to look busy?

VOTE: HavingFitz

[Chip Butty]

First complete readthrough: A50 is town. MD is 70% town. Bins is 70% scum. Mutant could well be SK. Lots of boring setup talk, to which I will now add my two cent's worth:

If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.

More reads soonish, I hope.

[Chip Butty]

Nopes.

[Chip Butty]

Dang.

[Chip Butty]

Third time's a charm...

[Chip Butty]

Back on deck, and rereading in a few hours, with any luck.

[Chip Butty]

I should be able to put more effort into the game now...

[Chip Butty]

My vote on havingfitz is probably a bit stale. Will reread and review...

[Chip Butty]

@MD: Is there anything much other than meta behind your Raya vote?

@A50: Is there really enough to be sheeping MD?

I'm not necessariky disagreeing, but her ISO doesn't look terrible, given the tine6of year.

[Chip Butty]

@NM: what have you got on Raya?

[Chip Butty]

I've looked at the ISOs of MD, NM, Raya, and A50 just now, but I still need to go back and do a proper readthrough. Will answer any questions / comments addressed to me then.

[Chip Butty]

Looks like exciting stuff is happening. Have read the current page but let me go back and see how we got to here. I said before I'd lynch the sk if i knew who is was, so it's looking like goodbye bins.

[Chip Butty]

I'm confused too. Gonna have to read that again. Thanks guys.

[Chip Butty]

So we have a 1v1 b/w MD and NM?

[Chip Butty]

Math can you just clarify the following questions

no

Lol he didn't answer your questions. Now you can go into tunnel mode.

[Chip Butty]

^@Mutant

[Chip Butty]

so i do have a confession to make: i was phone-posting last night and didn't actually see Math's cop claim on Bins.

though even if i did i don't think my answers would of changed too much. i don't believe the claim, honestly i'm surprised Bins gave up.

Bins could easily be mafia instead of third party, i wouldn't believe her claim in the slightest.

i'm not overly stoked about not_mafia's "too scummy to be scum" post here.

Chip Butty needs to go. Talk about lost scum in this game

i'll rethink the mutant and raya reads, it was a lot of pages to process all at once there

but yeah, real hardening scum-read on Chip, he had no clue how he was supposed to react to the cop situation among other things

Uh, yeah, because I had just quickscanned the last couple of pages on my phone, and had other things on my mind? I had the aha! moment later and would have loved to join in the fun, but didn't get around to it. Ftr it's been a busy few days. Even now i have to go through and make sure if bins is hammered or not...

[Chip Butty]

This is shaping up to be a fun game. Intent.

[Chip Butty]

As the true town cop, I reserve the right to hammer.

[Chip Butty]

I got a guilty on MD. I checked him because dinosaur + fedora = no.

[Chip Butty]

This is a secret bastard game. Jingle is scum.

[Chip Butty]

This is shaping up to be a fun game. Intent.

Well, this is really confusing but I know for sure we should lynch bins. I don't think were going to get anywhere as is so intent to hammer bins.

I already have intent lol.

Btw: UNVOTE:

[Chip Butty]

Here we go:

VOTE: Bins

[Chip Butty]

Yeah, I've just been busy with RL, haven't put much into this game so far. Also, I really am cop.

[Chip Butty]

One of my orher games just ended, so I expect to be more active d2. *stage whisper* ...if I'm still around, that is...

[Chip Butty]

One of my orher games just ended, so I expect to be more active d2. *stage whisper* ...if I'm still around, that is...

Lol, I was about to say y'all can check out my scum game in the newly finished micro 756...

[Chip Butty]

Okay, now that Xmas/NY is out of the way, I should have time to actually play the game. I just ISO-ed Sauce, and I'm not sure what to think yet. He's definitely been wrong on a lot of stuff, or is that "wrong"? One thing is that he seems to be hung up on scum.Maxous, whom I see has just naked voted me, so a Maxous ISO is on the cards very soon. I'm hoping we get a lot of info from all the deaths, but let's see. It's 5-2-1 by my count, so let's take our time over this.

More soon.

[Chip Butty]

Oh yeah, and the recurring question: Is Mutant scum or VI, or both?

[Chip Butty]

i've completely cooled off on a bins wagon though

Interesting...

[Chip Butty]

Tell you what, if Bins flips scum feel free to give me shit.
Until then, I don't care

Might take you up on this...

[Chip Butty]

My vote on havingfitz is probably a bit stale. Will reread and review...

I should be able to put more effort into the game now...

Back on deck, and rereading in a few hours, with any luck.

First complete readthrough: A50 is town. MD is 70% town. Bins is 70% scum. Mutant could well be SK. Lots of boring setup talk, to which I will now add my two cent's worth:

If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.

More reads soonish, I hope.

possible scum here
promising more reads but struggling to give them
i've been in this kind of situation before as scum where you over-promise and struggle to back it up

Really? Was it over the leadup to Xmas/NY?

[Chip Butty]

i'll hammer not_mafia anytime.
Sauce is threatening to be in the same boat too

What do you think of N_M now?

[Chip Butty]

Chip votes me for lame reasoning. How my post could not be construed as scum hunting (see post 53) makes me smh….

I'm not sure why HF reacted so strongly to this. It was my intro/RVS vote, and I didn't push it hard. Admittedly, my vote stayed on him a long while, but that was because I wasn't in the game much.

[Chip Butty]

Back later. I'll give a readslist when I'm done ISO-ing everyone.

[Chip Butty]

Bins

(7) - Almost50,

Mathdino

,

Lalendra

, Not_Mafia, Chip Butty, mutantdevle,

Raya36

mutantdevle (2) - Elmo TeH AzN, Maxous
Maxous (1) - Sauce

Raya36

(1) -

Bins

Not Voting (1) - havingfitz

[Chip Butty]

More theory talk: if we nail the SK the Vig will definitely be shut down, so only one death at night.

We are 5-2-1 now. Assuming we lynch the SK = 5-2 and tomorrow we are 4-2 (traditional MyLo).

If we lynch Mafia today though it would be 5-1-1 and it's anyone guess how many town deaths at night. Scum could cross kill, or could hit town. the Vig may shoot scum, Town or not at all. This is confusing but it has the benefit of the Vig having a chance to do something at night, plus the chance of scum cross killing each other.

Everyone's opinion/feedback is welcome.

This is the way to look at this:

It's 5-2-1. 3 scenarios. 1. We lynch town 2. We lynch SK. 3.We lynch mafia.

1. 4-2-1. Worst case scenario: SK, mafia, and vig hit separate town targets = 1-2-1 and we lose. Even if the vig doesn't shoot, it's 2-2-1 (so the game would continue, I guess?). So if we lynch town, vig should holster.

2. 5-2-0. Wcs: 2 town deaths = 3-2-0.

3. 5-1-1. Wcs: 3 town deaths = 2-1-1.

[Chip Butty]

A50, you're looking at this wrong. No way does mafia shoot anybody else but MD last night. It was screamingly obvious he was the real cop.

[Chip Butty]

What is interesting is that the SK didn't shoot him. I think they must have assumed mafia would.

[Chip Butty]

I think MD was directing the vig to Raya. If SK shot Lalendra, it might be 1. She fakecrumbed earlier or 2. Alternative kills would have pointed back at the SK. I'm leaning toward the latter, as I've never known Lalendra to crumb. Which means let's look at who was anti-Lalendra.

[Chip Butty]

3. 5-1-1. Wcs: 3 town deaths = 2-1-1.

This is also a Town loss as both scum sides would be able to kill. We would need all the luck in the world for us to come up winners in this situation.

Yeah, so vig should holster in this scenario.

[Chip Butty]

I hard TR N_M

Now or day1?

Since he tried to provide some cover for Mathdino after the latter hard claimed Cop.

you can't be serious.

I agree with Sauce here. It was a weak-ass attempt and he didn't really try to be convincing. Anyway, pointless, since he claimed a true guilty. Mafia would never let him live after that , with no doc.

[Chip Butty]

I hard TR N_M

Now or day1?

Since he tried to provide some cover for Mathdino after the latter hard claimed Cop.

@Chip: I know Math was obvious Cop. I'm saying Mafia may have been high on his read list to not fear being checked last night and thus were hoping he would come back with a guilty on the SK, or a clear on Townie they would hen dash out from their possible SK list.

Possible, but unlikely, i think.

[Chip Butty]

A50, you're looking at this wrong. No way does mafia shoot anybody else but MD last night. It was screamingly obvious he was the real cop.

What is interesting is that the SK didn't shoot him. I think they must have assumed mafia would.

So your saying the mafia shot him? But who would have shot Raya the Vig. I don't see why the SK would have shot Dino just because odds are they took Investigation protection. Just a hunch but if the person has great town cred why not look at them?

Im waiting for NM to chime in now

Not feeling the SK shooting the cop though.

Just to be clear, I'm saying it is almost certain mafia shot MD...

[Chip Butty]

Between Chip and mutant I think I'm more suspicious of Chip still. It has been the case on D1 and it's coming back o me now. Something's not right in his posts, I don't know what exactly, but I have an urge to lynch this today.

VOTE: Chip Butty

Because I'm not rolling with your pet theory?

You might be obvtown, but that doesn't mean your logic is good.

[Chip Butty]

@Sauce: that's a reasonable question. It's jusy an impression, albeit a strong one.

Nobody voted Lalendra d1, and her vote was on you through several VCs before she jumped on the bins wagon. So you're the strongest living link to her. Comments?

[Chip Butty]

Guys, the way Chip Butty and MD manipulated yesterday's lynch just makes me believe they are scum together

the way things are going

VOTE: Chip Butty

his reminds me that Chip kept seesawing Bins until it was apparent she was the lynch and only then did he join the wagon. Bins kept FoSing Chip but never made a serious push on him.

Where did i seesaw bins?

[Chip Butty]

@Sauce: that's a reasonable question. It's jusy an impression, albeit a strong one.

Nobody voted Lalendra d1, and her vote was on you through several VCs before she jumped on the bins wagon. So you're the strongest living link to her. Comments?

Yes. Start scumhunting lest ye be voted.

Nice dodge. My question to you was scumhunting. As in, did you have a motive to silence Lalendra?

[Chip Butty]

Raya looking back was trying to tunnel hard. Its one of those serious things on Chip and from a pov it looks like Chip was trying to wash his hands clean of Bins where Bins was bussing hard.

VOTE: Chip

My moneys on Fitz as SK also or Almost being that high on reads

bins' vote was on Raya. Raya was town. Ergo, bins wasn't bussing, let alone hard.

[Chip Butty]

Okay people, I get it. I wasn't too involved in the game d1 and I've set mysrlf up as an easy mislynch, even though it was the Xmas/NY. That's fine. All i ask is you give me time to get a complete readslist out.

[Chip Butty]

Guys, the way Chip Butty and MD manipulated yesterday's lynch just makes me believe they are scum together

the way things are going

VOTE: Chip Butty

Momo and Mutant share VI qualities...

[Chip Butty]

Has anyone seen them in the same room together?

[Chip Butty]

@Chip: maybe seesawing isn't the word I wanted to use. You just seemed uninterested in lynching your "70% Scum" read. You joked about being the real cop with a "guilty on MD" (iirc, was that meant to be Math or mutant?). Finally, you practically apologized to Bins for voting her because "you said earlier that you would lynch the SK if you knew who they were", and -in hindsight- it feels like you were telling her it's her fault she fake claimed SK.

THANK YOU for pointing me to why exactly I'm most uncomfortable with your posts.

Seriously? I fakeclaimed cop just to try to add to the general confusion and maybe help save MD (Mathdino). It was a long shot, but worth a try.

I wasn't apologising to bins, i was pointing out that my vote was consistent, since bins had claimed SK.

[Chip Butty]

Oh, I stopped alt hunting. I usually forget who's whom's alt anyway shortly after the game is over. Very few stand out in my memory, bu most get purged by the time I turn off my PC and call it a night.

I, otoh, maintain a complete alt database.

[Chip Butty]

I'm less sure of A50 Zthan I was. He backed down from his spurious "seesawing" claim real fast when challenged, he initially voted me without being able to say why, and when he did present reasons, I shot them down easily. Also, his logic on who killed Mathdino is skewed, and I'm not buying that he thought "MD" might mean mutant, when I've been using it to denote Mathdino all game. Not famia, though. If scum then SK, and he is trying to muddy the "who killed whom" waters.

[Chip Butty]

@Chip: maybe seesawing isn't the word I wanted to use. You just seemed uninterested in lynching your "70% Scum" read. You joked about being the real cop with a "guilty on MD" (iirc, was that meant to be Math or mutant?). Finally, you practically apologized to Bins for voting her because "you said earlier that you would lynch the SK if you knew who they were", and -in hindsight- it feels like you were telling her it's her fault she fake claimed SK.

THANK YOU for pointing me to why exactly I'm most uncomfortable with your posts.

@A50: what you smokin, man? The "Math or mutant" I mrntioned was referring to this post by YOU. You're getting a lot of stuff wrong today.

[Chip Butty]

Okay, here's how I'm looking at this now.

Question: why are Raya and Lalendra dead?

First, like I said before, I think mafia always shoots the cop there. I can see R or L as vig shots. L was pretty much innocuous town, and I think Math was trying to direct the shot there. The real question is thus: Why did the SK shoot into L/R?

I think if the SK chose immunity from NK, he/she shoots the cop most of the time. The exception is if they assume mafia will do it. Otoh, if they chose vig/cop protection, they don't want to kill the cop. I think we can say they chose vig/cop protection, which means they can only be townkilled by lynching. So the SK will want to kill mafia.

That might explain the Raya shot. But HavingFitz was runner-up in the vote, so would seem like a natural choice. Unless HF is the SK. Another possibility is that the SK just didn't buy the case on him. But then, why buy the case on Raya, which wasn't strong? I think HFis a good candidate for SK.

Inb4 "SK-hunting is scummy": Think about it. With 2 scum among 8 slots, eliminating one of those from mafia contention is a significant gain. More importantly, even though the SK will be gunning for mafia, chances are they'll hit town again, and at this point we need to stanch the flow of blood. Also, I'm going to use this assumption to hunt scum in the next few hours.

As of now, I'm down to

VOTE: HavingFitz

[Chip Butty]

That MIGHT change in a few hours.

[Chip Butty]

Is it in town's best interest to eliminate Bins today?

If Bins is the sk...scum is going to want her out of the game for their wincon AND to stop her from f'ing with the switches. Mafia ABSOLUTELY want sk!Bins to be lynched today. If sk!Bins is left alive today...does mafia dare not shoot her tonight?

If Bins is fakeclaiming mafia...wouldn't the real sk be inclined to kill her? We could just let tbd!Bins last one more night and if she isn't killed (by mafia...or sk?) we could just insta-lynch her tomorrow.

If she is the sk letting her live through tonight would/should kind of handcuff mafia into killing her tonight. And or possibly handcuff a real sk to killing her. Letting her live just f's up scum plans this evening either way and frees town up to vote someone else today (ex. Raya or Maxous)...cause I doubt either of them is getting nk'd anytime soon.

Thoughts?

Thoughts incoming...

[Chip Butty]

Scum is Bins/Raya/Maxous/Fitz I think

You might have up to three correct. Good luck!

Mafia ABSOLUTELY want sk!Bins to be lynched today. If sk!Bins is left alive today...does mafia dare not shoot her tonight?

Wrong if she's guilty she would have nk immunity

I'm not wrong about mafia wanting sk!Bins lynched. But good point about mafia nk immunity. Looks like Bins it is.

:/

Okay, looks like it might be a genuine oversight...

[Chip Butty]

...or not, if wine is on the table.

[Chip Butty]

HavingFitz is due back on the 3rd.

I noticed in reading his ISO that his read on Lalendra stared townish then became progressively worse. He also seemed suspicious of Raya. I'm starting to think he isn't SK, since killing that pair would be kind of blatant.

[Chip Butty]

Guys, the way Chip Butty and MD manipulated yesterday's lynch just makes me believe they are scum together

the way things are going

VOTE: Chip Butty

Momo and Mutant share VI qualities...

Has anyone seen them in the same room together?

Are you actually throwing shade at me over that? And what exactly is it that I am doing that is making you repeatedly refer to me as a VI?

I think we both know the answer to the second question. But, I have to admit, less so here. I don't know what that means in terms of alignment.

[Chip Butty]

Chip's "what does this have to do with scumhunting?" question was reasonable but the "are you trying to look busy????" is classic suspicion-throwing in the form of asking dumb questions that amount to "are you scum using [x] strategy?" which everyone will always answer 'no' to.

I don't think I ever replied to this, so ftr: It's called a "rhetorical question". Of course I didn't expect HF to reply "Oh damn! You got me! Yes, I am scum. Well done, Chip, nothing gets past you!"

[Chip Butty]

I think we both know the answer to the second question.

You've never actually explained. As I said earlier, being wrong does not make someone an idiot.

We probably shouldn't discuss it further atm. All right, I'll let up. You seem less VI-ish here anyway. Again, I don't know what that means for alignment, if anything.

[Chip Butty]

Fair enough. Still not something I would likely do but I see more logic in it now. The way you posted it seemed like you were really confident but I'm correct it's more of a confirmation that your scumreads make sense. I was mostly asking this question since if irc ealier you said something about pre-flip associations being bad or you were scum reading someone for it.

VOTE: bins
I'll look back over things in a few.

I think with this claim our best shot is lynching bins.

Thanks Captain Obvious

Since we can't lynch town anyway, I'm actually more interested in lynching one of her partners today and having the vig or SK shoot her tonight. Lynching Bins is the lazy way out. We have 10 pages of associations to look over.

Since we can't lynch town anyway, I'm actually more interested in lynching one of her partners today and having the vig or SK shoot her tonight.

Not sure outting yourself, if true, was the best thing. Why aren't you voting Bins?

With switches there's no guarantee Bins gets vigged...maaybe the sk does it? But if you're full of shit and Bins is town and we mislynch today instead of "guilty" Bins...and town Bins is nk'd...then idfk....town's pretty much really screwed. Plus if Bins is scum and turns out to be the vig switch....good for the town.

I'll wait till Bins responds before I consider moving my vote.

P.edit...didn't factor last few posts

This is HF's first post after Math hardclaimed. I'm not crazy about it. He asks why Math isn't voting Bins, when Math answered that just a few posts back.

[Chip Butty]

Considering I was already scumreading Fitz and Sauce, I am probably not the best person to answer your question. But I'm glad I'm not the only one who sees it.

I would like to lynch confscum (I believe Math's claim and am willing to sheep someone I consider to be reliable town PR), but understand that it would be better to wait and see how much info we can get. Weird that all three went silent after Math's proclamation (aside from Fitz's single half-hearted retort) but could be coincidence. I'm hesitant to say we have it figured out but this is a good start.

tl;dr I'm down with voting Fitz, Sauce or Bins, don't particularly care in what order.

This might be relevant...was Lalendra killed because of her likely d2 vote?

[Chip Butty]

Oh shit, I genuinely thought Bins was townie. Guess I was wrong (obviously).

I made a mental note to myself earlier that I thought bins and sauce seemed friendly. But rereading the parts where they mention each other I have no idea why. Other than that, on gut I would say that from rereading Bins' ISO her potential scum partners are Elmo and maxous.

Btw, we should probably ignore everything bins says now. OFC she's going to try and throw us off and confuse us.

Oh and don't lynch Bins until the end of the day. I would have said to not lynch Bins at all until MyLo but then Fitz reminded me that Bins could be the vig switch. If she is, it would be VERY useful to have her lynched today.

I don't like that last part about being reminded Bins could have been the vig switch. Of course, ANYONE could be the vig switch...

So, Elmo and Maxous, huh? I'll be keeping an eye out for unjustified changes...

[Chip Butty]

I've significantly warmed up to the idea of Maxous being scum lately.

Flipped cop read.

[Chip Butty]

I'm actually feeling pretty sold on fitz being scum over Raya.

Flipped cop read.

[Chip Butty]

Maxous is almost definitely scum then, if he was so adamant that Bins didn't scumslip.

Flipped cop read.

[Chip Butty]

I think Bins is lying but whatever Kill mutant

VOTE: Raya

This might have come out later, I can't remember, but why not voting Bins here?

[Chip Butty]

Okay, I'm bored and tired. Out for now...

[Chip Butty]

Oh man she hammered guys, must be town

Yeah, but this is virtually the last thing he said, which I took to be heavily sarcastic.

[Chip Butty]

^about Raya, obviously

[Chip Butty]

@Chip To answer your question regarding who profited the most from Lalendra's death, I'd say fitz. The answer to the question who profited the most from Raya's death is also, imo, fitz.

If someone, or even both anti-town factions were trying to set him up, why not at least make it appear as if they were successful?

Unvote: havingfitz

.. for a while.

VOTE: Maxous

And by someone, or even both anti-twon factions I mean only the sk.

Unvote: Maxous

VOTE: Chip L-1

Lol

[Chip Butty]

Bins (7) - Almost50,

Mathdino, Lalendra

, Not_Mafia, Chip Butty, mutantdevle,

Raya36

I think A50 was making the point that this isn't all town.
yeah, i could see that. Cop result or not if a mafia is being flipped, as a buddy you generally would want to try and wiggle onto the wagon just for appearance's sake if nothing else

As people have said, any vote for bins after the hc id nai. I mean, obviously.

[Chip Butty]

Chip quoting MathDino's reads isn't endearing him to me either...like is there a specific point to it?

Only the usual thing that, since he flipped green, we at least know he was sincere.

[Chip Butty]

I'm not going to say anything more in response to my largely absent d1. I've acknowledged it, if you can't move on, it's your problem. Even at the best of times, it's often d3 before i really start rolling, because before then it's mainly guesswork. We just happened to get lucky this game.

Since Math nailed scum and seemed to know what he was doing, I'm going to sheep him and vote the guy who is tunnelling me for sketchy reasons:

VOTE: Maxous

[Chip Butty]

VOTE: Chip Butty

Too late, lol.

[Chip Butty]

Just one more active game to get out of, and I'm away from the site until I'm less busy IRL.

[Chip Butty]

Go, scum, you can do it!