Open 704: Switch (Game Over)


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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:55 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 65, Mathdino wrote:
Almost50, mutant, Elmo, Not_Mafia,
sheep me,
Do I know you?! Because I only sheep players I have played with before (and yet NOT everyone I played with is worth sheeping).

Of course, the "Math" part could be a clue for me, but I want to make sure I'm not totally mislead by my own assumptions.

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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:58 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 67, Mathdino wrote:Her Elmo wagon is shit,
Elmo is a vote magnet. I see people voting there all the time (I hope my memory isn't playing tricks on me and that it IS Elmo that seemed to attract inexplicable votes in previous games).

Both Bins & Elmo are still total nulls for me.

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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:01 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 67, Mathdino wrote:Alternatively, if you vote Raya I'll sheep you on that.
So, Bins and Raya for you. At least we are starting to get some reads.

P.S. I only played Raya once as far as I can remember, and she almost flaked then got killed on N1. She was Scum and I was on the other Scum team.

Bins I have more experience with, so maybe I will get a better read there given more time.

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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:02 am

Post by Raya36 »

In post 65, Mathdino wrote: I love your reasoning on Elmo from a rhetorical standpoint but I think defenciveness is an overused scumtell, especially on experienced players. You're right that Elmo had no reason to be defencive about my vote. Which is why I don't think it was defenciveness, more confused flailing attempted scumhunting. The meta on this site is, in my experience, to just ignore early votes on you if you don't want to be scumread.
You could be right about the defensiveness not actually being defensiveness. In my experience scum have been caught before for being too defensive which is why I brought it up but I probably wouldn't lynch over it alone. I'm also using the term defensive loosely. It might be better described as deflective. I still want to leave my vote here though at least until I get a stronger read on her.

In post 8, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:VOTE: mutantdevle
No walls from you kthx
In post 19, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Like Fitz just said though. Let's say the big takes a shot and misses. You then have what a 75% chance of nailing scum and then granted if I did quick math it's lylo but the odds are very heavily in towns favor for an actual win of the game.
In post 47, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Your Meta is to be a nit picky with your vote. And you like walls.
1st post reads town on gut. 2nd post reads scum because it's like it's talking to the town being like "Hey it's not unfair, you guys have a chance". 3rd post is ancillarily helpful in an unfortunately low effort way. At the very least I can appreciate the utility of the Elmo wagon pressuring her to actually do something, but her response leans town.
Looking this over again I noticed the use of the word "you" in 19 is a bit odd. Maybe I'm nitpicking over it not being "we". What do you think?
Lalendra's actions all seem focused around getting scum. She pressures me and gets me to explain myself more instead of pouncing on me, then announces the results of that pressure.
This is fair.
Chip's "what does this have to do with scumhunting?" question was reasonable but the "are you trying to look busy????" is classic suspicion-throwing in the form of asking dumb questions that amount to "are you scum using [x] strategy?" which everyone will always answer 'no' to.
The "what does this have to with scumhunting" is part of where the townlean comes from. The "are you trying to look busy" was rhetorical I think.
I like Raya as a player (I read through your Newbie scum game with nancy, respect for that) but I'm getting a lot of scum motivation from that post. N_M's vote is good but I think better served on Bins.
Haha thanks! Which post are you talking about? You're getting scum motivation from my post or a different one?
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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:04 am

Post by Elmo TeH AzN »

In post 76, Almost50 wrote:
In post 67, Mathdino wrote:Her Elmo wagon is shit,
Elmo is a vote magnet. I see people voting there all the time (I hope my memory isn't playing tricks on me and that it IS Elmo that seemed to attract inexplicable votes in previous games).

Both Bins & Elmo are still total nulls for me.


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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:20 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 71, Sauce wrote:I mean .. I'm getting confused as a consequence of reading what you're apparently thinking, Dinomath. That's why I'm not making any sense anymore. It's obviously your fault I'm mixing up Bins with Elmo. How can a two-vote wagon on page 2 be lynch bait? How does one think like that?
In post 74, Sauce wrote:Anyway the mutantdevle is a wagon I imagine scum would join at the time Maxous did, so I like my vote there.
You kind of answered my question for me. Mutant was a 3 vote wagon that feels too easy. Plus I got what I wanted out of mutant and think he's leaning town.
Elmo is also lynchbait in general according to Almost50 but that is not what I meant. The Elmo votes are just straight up bad.
Hence my vote on Bins. Your vote on maxous is fair I guess.
In post 75, Almost50 wrote:Do I know you?! Because I only sheep players I have played with before (and yet NOT everyone I played with is worth sheeping).
Nah we've never played before. I'm not Mathblade.
In post 76, Almost50 wrote:Elmo is a vote magnet. I see people voting there all the time (I hope my memory isn't playing tricks on me and that it IS Elmo that seemed to attract inexplicable votes in previous games).

Both Bins & Elmo are still total nulls for me.
In post 77, Almost50 wrote:So, Bins and Raya for you. At least we are starting to get some reads.

Bins I have more experience with, so maybe I will get a better read there given more time.
Lol I posted reads a couple pages ago. I'll do another reads list though.
Shouldn't Bins be aware Elmo is a vote magnet and thus understand that is a bad place to put votes? I note opportunism because I expect better reads from Bins.
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:26 am

Post by Bins »

In post 80, Mathdino wrote:Shouldn't Bins be aware Elmo is a vote magnet and thus understand that is a bad place to put votes? I note opportunism because I expect better reads from Bins.
I'm confused. Why would I be aware of this? Why would you expect good reads of me? All of these things lead me to believe you aren't actually doing meta, lol. I agreed that I didn't like Elmo's reaction and don't have another big scumread.
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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:29 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 78, Raya36 wrote:Looking this over again I noticed the use of the word "you" in 19 is a bit odd. Maybe I'm nitpicking over it not being "we". What do you think?
Yeah that's exactly what I meant by that. Felt like a minor scumslip. Discounting it in favour of later posts though.

And yeah I meant your last post by "that post" seeming to have scum motivation.
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:34 am

Post by Bins »

Reading over and Maxous is also a decent place for votes. When you say "I hope this doesn't seem like I'm copying", it normally just leads me to think that it seems like. Especially when you vote me for an unexplained vote with a vote that was explained just as well.
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:37 am

Post by Raya36 »

Do you mind explaining why you think it was scum motivated?
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:41 am

Post by Maxous »

In post 83, Bins wrote:Reading over and Maxous is also a decent place for votes. When you say "I hope this doesn't seem like I'm copying", it normally just leads me to think that it seems like. Especially when you vote me for an unexplained vote with a vote that was explained just as well.
I'm simply aware I followed his vote twice in a row.
Elmo is gut-town for me anyway.
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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:44 am

Post by Equinox »

Vote Count 1.03Bins (2) - Mathdino, Maxous
Elmo TeH AzN (2) - Bins, Raya36
havingfitz (2) - Almost50, Chip Butty
Maxous (2) - Lalendra, Sauce
mutantdevle (1) - Elmo TeH AzN
Raya36 (1) - Not_Mafia

Not Voting (2) - havingfitz, mutantdevle


With 12 votes, it will take 7 to reach majority.

The deadline is Thursday, January 4, 2018, at 8:00 AM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-04 08:00:00).
Last edited by Equinox on Mon Dec 25, 2017 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 81, Bins wrote:I'm confused. Why would I be aware of this? Why would you expect good reads of me? All of these things lead me to believe you aren't actually doing meta, lol. I agreed that I didn't like Elmo's reaction and don't have another big scumread.
I assume you have experience. If you were relatively new I wouldn't have minded the Elmo vote, but like I said defenciveness is a bad scumtell. You're right, I'm not doing meta on your quality as a scumhunter; I was only meta-ing your RVS votes and ISOing your scumgames. Sorry if that was unclear. My vote on you has very little to do with meta.

Let's talk more, might help. Do you have any townreads? What do you think of Maxous and his vote on you?

PEdit:
@Raya:

1. You talking about Elmo seems circular, like you're trying to talk yourself into suspecting her. Scum motivation would be knowing she's town but still trying to come up with an argument.
2. You're a charismatic/generally helpful player. Your questions to me read like scum trying to shoot the breeze with town suspecting her. It reads to me like how I'd play scum, honestly.

PEdit:
@Bins:

You ninja'd my question on Maxous. Do you wanna vote Maxous instead?
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:46 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

Super Mario Odyssey
Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:24 am

Post by Elmo TeH AzN »

VOTE: Not_Mafia Come on man do something.

Not feeling Sauce too hot either
In post 78, Raya36 wrote:You could be right about the defensiveness not actually being defensiveness. In my experience scum have been caught before for being too defensive which is why I brought it up but I probably wouldn't lynch over it alone. I'm also using the term defensive loosely. It might be better described as deflective. I still want to leave my vote here though at least until I get a stronger read on her.
Would you rather me throw my arms into the air 4 posts in?
Looking this over again I noticed the use of the word "you" in 19 is a bit odd. Maybe I'm nitpicking over it not being "we". What do you think?
You are. Sorry its a way of how i type. Also you mind checking my math on that one?
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:32 am

Post by Maxous »

^
towniest post of the game so far
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:37 am

Post by Sauce »

What's town about it?
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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:40 am

Post by Sauce »

I don't think that was a legit scumslip, but I don't think that was a townie post either.
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:51 am

Post by Raya36 »

Thanks Math

UNVOTE: Elmo

So we are down two town rn so there are 12 in the game total. There are three scum in the game and one sk which makes 8v3v1. Rn we have a 25% chance of hitting scum. So if we mislynch, scum get a kill, sk gets a kill and hits a townie, and vig misses we are now down 4 more townies. We'll have 8 total players 3 of which are scum and 1 is sk. We would be in a 4v3v1 situation. Lylo and a 50% chance of hitting anyone but town. About a 38% chance of hitting scum.
Did I do the same calculations as you?
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:21 am

Post by Bins »

In post 87, Mathdino wrote:I assume you have experience. If you were relatively new I wouldn't have minded the Elmo vote, but like I said defenciveness is a bad scumtell. You're right, I'm not doing meta on your quality as a scumhunter; I was only meta-ing your RVS votes and ISOing your scumgames. Sorry if that was unclear. My vote on you has very little to do with meta.

Let's talk more, might help. Do you have any townreads? What do you think of Maxous and his vote on you?
I don't play Mafia much anymore. Haven't in like four months and I take quite long breaks. I've never played with Elmo either, so I don't know that she's lynch bait, but I didn't see the one post coming from town. I know defensiveness isn't a scumtell, I'm a lot more defensive as town, but I got a bad gut feel from the reaction. Maxous' vote on me was a lot worse than your vote on me and I haven't liked their posts so far.

I only got good feels from mutant, you [both have been stated] and I have good feels about Lalendra's first few posts and maybe Fitz just because of similarity of what he felt when I felt it when people struck me as town.



I'm going to be busy until after Christmas, but I'll try and keep up and check in.

I expect SK to play low or just state obvious things. I feel because we're down in numbers looking for SK tells is a priority :nerd: to eliminate another NK.
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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:42 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 93, Raya36 wrote:UNVOTE: Elmo

So we are down two town rn so there are 12 in the game total. There are three scum in the game and one sk which makes 8v3v1. Rn we have a 25% chance of hitting scum. So if we mislynch, scum get a kill, sk gets a kill and hits a townie, and vig misses we are now down 4 more townies. We'll have 8 total players 3 of which are scum and 1 is sk. We would be in a 4v3v1 situation. Lylo and a 50% chance of hitting anyone but town. About a 38% chance of hitting scum.
Did I do the same calculations as you?
Your Math is roughly correct but keep in mind lynches aren't random, and this hurts town. The very presence of scumpartner reduces the chances of a scum lynch. Plus, in 4v3v1, we've essentially already lost. Lynching SK gives mafia majority, and lynching mafia allows both to hit 2 more town. That all said, this is largely game irrelevant now.

Your unvote in response to me pushing the shittiness of the Elmo wagon, without putting your vote somewhere else, doesn't really help your case tbh.
In post 94, Bins wrote:I don't play Mafia much anymore. Haven't in like four months and I take quite long breaks. I've never played with Elmo either, so I don't know that she's lynch bait, but I didn't see the one post coming from town. I know defensiveness isn't a scumtell, I'm a lot more defensive as town, but I got a bad gut feel from the reaction. Maxous' vote on me was a lot worse than your vote on me and I haven't liked their posts so far.

I only got good feels from mutant, you [both have been stated] and I have good feels about Lalendra's first few posts and maybe Fitz just because of similarity of what he felt when I felt it when people struck me as town.

I expect SK to play low or just state obvious things. I feel because we're down in numbers looking for SK tells is a priority :nerd: to eliminate another NK.
These are good thoughts. I'm sad because I was excited to play a game with Bins but I'm still picking up on scum motivation here :(

See, I agree that Maxous's vote wasn't great. I agree on good feels from mutant/Lalendra. I could maybe agree on Fitz.

But it's really rich to me that you're openly SK-hunting rather than mafia-hunting. I didn't even ask about that and you're jumping to the idea that SK is a bigger threat than mafia.

This is a scumslip.

My vote stands. Raya if you want a good place to park your vote, try here.
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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:49 am

Post by Bins »

Scumslip? Lmfao. Raya was just doing the math, and eliminating SK a huge threat is important. SK might be vig/cop immune, the Mafia are not. They might also be NK immune.

Also mafia-SK differences are not black and white. I'm going to focus on anyone that looks bad, yeah.
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:51 am

Post by Bins »

Also, I haven't made the distinction that Maxous or Elmo are more likely SK or Mafia. Where have you gotten the idea that I'm avoiding scumhunting? I'm not going to turn over to someone else even if I think that they are. You're completely misunderstanding what my motivation is here.
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:04 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 97, Bins wrote:Also, I haven't made the distinction that Maxous or Elmo are more likely SK or Mafia. Where have you gotten the idea that I'm avoiding scumhunting? I'm not going to turn over to someone else even if I think that they are. You're completely misunderstanding what my motivation is here.
Any multiball setup or SK setup requires scumhunting from everyone involved. Both teams want to lynch the other. This creates the unfortunate side effect that everyone ROUGHLY believes their own reads. I believe your reads have some merit, and I believe you believe they do.

I know you haven't made that distinction; calling them both SK would be a hilariously major slip.

My point is that SK hunting is, for town, idiotic compared to mafiahunting. If we lynch SK, we're at 10p 3v7 approximately mountainous mafia with 2 PRs that will likely get switched off once SK is dead. That's assuming we can even lynch the SK; because SK is as motivated as town to actively look for associative tells, is just as low-information as town, and only has the wincon to not get themselves lynched, SK is going to look townier than mafia. Hunting for the SK makes us more likely to mislynch town.

So there's very clear motivation here. You want to scumhunt, but you're doing so from a (I believe) high information perspective that only really requires you to hunt for the SK.

I'm not gonna harp too hard on pre-flip associatives but as long as I'm still scumreading Bins, I believe her current townreads are actually town. To a lesser extent I believe her scumreads are also town (or at least aren't mafia).
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:16 am

Post by Bins »

I'm sorry to pull this card, but why would I state as Mafia that I only want to hunt the SK? First you treat me like an experienced player and now you think I would show everyone how I'm tunnel hunting the SK?

"Any multiball setup or SK setup requires scumhunting from everyone involved. Both teams want to lynch the other." You do realize that both teams can KILL each other? That is something they can probably do [unless immunity].

Also tunnelling SK isn't what I said I was doing. I said if someone is acting like the SK it should be important to pin them down. I'm still hunting mafia at an equal importance and I have been since the start of the game. I really don't think Elmo is playing like SK. I didn't even say "lynch SK over Mafia", I said they need to also be looked for because I don't want this game to end with SK steamrolling due to the immunity they have + their massive switching power. Two NKs is insane when we're already behind.

I'm unsure on why you're taking such an issue to what I said. I obviously wasn't doing it secretly, I was trying to tell TOWN that we need to hunt the SK as well and they are likely laying low. Right now you can't just be banking on the fact that SK is going to shoot Mafia for us.
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