Open 704: Switch (Game Over)

[Almost50]

@mutant: I'd disagree on the bit of letting any claimed scum live, as I'm against the idea of leashing scum in general (and I'm thankful Wisdom is not here to counter my argument).

The last a recent game I played (open 700) the town did just that (let the claimed SK live) and it almost cost as the game, as the "claimed SK" was actually the 2nd Mafia member!! Lynching them o the spot would have revealed a LOT of info (game mechanics dictated flips were hidden until the killer was flipped). The Mafia did help us in a way by actually targeting the real SK to end up in a 2v1 LyLo rather than a 1v1v1 in which case we would have lost regardless bc No Lynch wasn't even an option.

Regardless, I'm always against the leashing of claimed/guiltied Scum on principle.

[Mathdino]

Reads list (Keep in mind I'm using scumhunting techniques since I don't know how to hunt SKs and we can probably just do that later)
(so top means not mafia and bottom means mafia):
___________________________

Almost50

: I see 0 anti-town motivation in his posts other than trying super hard to look town. This could change D2 but for now he's off my lynch table.

Lalendra

: Apparent genuine efforts to scumhunt. Not many posts though and this will change if she just takes the free townread.
___________________________

Elmo

: Possibly scum getting bussed but otherwise hard for me to see as scum. Most likely town pending today's flip.

mutant

: Shit wagon, mislynch bait, and needs to participate more, but town.

Maxous

: Tied with mutant. Making more of an effort to create a townbloc than to push lynches. I'm kind of into it.
___________________________

Sauce: Was reading null-scum but I like post 101 so I guess null-town?

Chip Butty: Lol a single post. Null.
___________________________

havingfitz

: Null-scum. I liked him at first but interactions rub me the wrong way.

Raya

: Super scummy, seems to be doing everything to make me think she's not. Elmo wagon was opportunistic and hopping off the Elmo wagon when I called her out was equally bad.

Bins

: I don't see this changing anytime soon, but I'm willing to work with her to collect reads/wagon people.
___________________________

Not_Mafia: Unfuckingreadable, I give up, someone else read him lategame.

[mutantdevle]

@mutant: I'd disagree on the bit of letting any claimed scum live, as I'm against the idea of leashing scum in general (and I'm thankful Wisdom is not here to counter my argument).

The last a recent game I played (open 700) the town did just that (let the claimed SK live) and it almost cost as the game, as the "claimed SK" was actually the 2nd Mafia member!! Lynching them o the spot would have revealed a LOT of info (game mechanics dictated flips were hidden until the killer was flipped). The Mafia did help us in a way by actually targeting the real SK to end up in a 2v1 LyLo rather than a 1v1v1 in which case we would have lost regardless bc No Lynch wasn't even an option.

Regardless, I'm always against the leashing of claimed/guiltied Scum on principle.

I'd say it is more that mechanic that would have almost screwed them over rather than the notion of keeping the SK alive. If a SK does not kill a fake claiming scum lord then we'd simply get a guaranteed successful lynch when the SK flips. All in all, I just think having the SK as the last person we lynch to win is the best case scenario as a mafia member fake claiming SK will equal itself out eventually if not immediately.

[havingfitz]

Mostly v/LA until Wednesday. I'll try to post if I get any time. Tough around Christmas.

[Raya36]

UNVOTE: Elmo

So we are down two town rn so there are 12 in the game total. There are three scum in the game and one sk which makes 8v3v1. Rn we have a 25% chance of hitting scum. So if we mislynch, scum get a kill, sk gets a kill and hits a townie, and vig misses we are now down 4 more townies. We'll have 8 total players 3 of which are scum and 1 is sk. We would be in a 4v3v1 situation. Lylo and a 50% chance of hitting anyone but town. About a 38% chance of hitting scum.
Did I do the same calculations as you?

Your Math is roughly correct but keep in mind lynches aren't random, and this hurts town. The very presence of scumpartner reduces the chances of a scum lynch. Plus, in 4v3v1, we've essentially already lost. Lynching SK gives mafia majority, and lynching mafia allows both to hit 2 more town. That all said, this is largely game irrelevant now.

I did this as worse case scenario. You're right about the scum partner thing. We'll just have to be careful in choosing our lynch candidate.

Your unvote in response to me pushing the shittiness of the Elmo wagon, without putting your vote somewhere else, doesn't really help your case tbh.

Oh, it wasn't supposed to be in responce but I see how it looks that way now. I unvoted because I was only keeping the vote more to get more out of Elmo and she posted so I didn't see much use in keeping my vote there anymore.

Raya if you want a good place to park your vote, try here.

I'm not convinced on that being a scumslip. Town should be hunting scum not the sk but the sk is still a threat so her post is completely reasonable. There's just one sk and to eliminate them will remove an extra kill every night so I definitely see the logic behind the post. I think this is honestly just a poorly thought out idea coming from town. Bins 97 comes across as really genuine too.
(But yeah, lets hunt for scum not the sk.)

[Maxous]

I should of stuck with my first vote

VOTE: mutantdevle

he ignored giving any reads or analysis and popped in just to talk theory.

Bins did not "scumslip"
i'm not convinced she's town but mutant is the first solid scumtell i have here so far

i'm leaning towards an A50 town-read.
i'm actually not convinced on Math being town despite how vocal and aggressive he's being tbh

[Sauce]

i'm not convinced she's town but mutant is the first solid scumtell i have here so far

i'm leaning towards an A50 town-read.
i'm actually not convinced on Math being town despite how vocal and aggressive he's being tbh

Starting sentences with i often seems to be a scumtell for you.

[Mathdino]

he ignored giving any reads or analysis and popped in just to talk theory.

This is experience-indicative more than it is alignment-indicative. I notice you've only played a single newbie game. That is the kind of shit discussion derails into (I think the same is true of the Open queue). New logical types feel like they're the hotshots that can prove how much mafia theory they know and can apply.

I don't think I've ever seen scum openly solely setup spec as a way to avoid actual scumhunting.

But also, whatever, if more people suspect him he'll probably produce real content so carry on.

[Maxous]

It's not as if he's given any reads apart from that

his ISO is rather reactive

[Chip Butty]

First complete readthrough: A50 is town. MD is 70% town. Bins is 70% scum. Mutant could well be SK. Lots of boring setup talk, to which I will now add my two cent's worth:

If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.

More reads soonish, I hope.

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.04

Bins (2) - Mathdino, Almost50
Maxous (2) - Lalendra, Sauce
mutantdevle (2) - Elmo TeH AzN, Maxous
Elmo TeH AzN (1) - Bins
havingfitz (1) - Chip Butty
Raya36 (1) - Not_Mafia

Not Voting (3) - havingfitz, mutantdevle, Raya36

With 12 votes, it will take 7 to reach majority.

The deadline is Thursday, January 4, 2018, at 8:00 AM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-04 08:00:00).

Moderator Comments

havingfitz is on V/LA from December 23 to 27.

[Chip Butty]

Nopes.

[Chip Butty]

Dang.

[Chip Butty]

Third time's a charm...

[Mathdino]

If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.

Oh I agree with this. Leashing the SK is dangerous. But if I had a choice between lynching a confirmed SK and a confirmed mafia, I'd choose mafia (although keep in mind mafia often claims SK to survive longer).

The problem is that SK hunting is significantly harder than mafiahunting because their lack of information/association makes them more similar to town. So I'm very much against lynching someone today because they might be SK. I'd rather lynch people who drop mafia tells.

Raya and Bins are still giving me the heeby-jeebies. I'd like a flip on one of them to confirm this.

Chip seems townish but I'm getting a slight feel of lowkey bussing.

MORE VOTES, PEOPLE. This game is slow af.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.

Oh I agree with this. Leashing the SK is dangerous. But if I had a choice between lynching a confirmed SK and a confirmed mafia, I'd choose mafia (although keep in mind mafia often claims SK to survive longer).

The problem is that SK hunting is significantly harder than mafiahunting because their lack of information/association makes them more similar to town. So I'm very much against lynching someone today because they might be SK. I'd rather lynch people who drop mafia tells.

Raya and Bins are still giving me the heeby-jeebies. I'd like a flip on one of them to confirm this.

Chip seems townish but I'm getting a slight feel of lowkey bussing.

MORE VOTES, PEOPLE. This game is slow af.

Its Christmas.

[mutantdevle]

I should of stuck with my first vote

VOTE: mutantdevle

he ignored giving any reads or analysis and popped in just to talk theory.

Bins did not "scumslip"
i'm not convinced she's town but mutant is the first solid scumtell i have here so far

I'm an ask and you shall receive kind of guy. If you ever want me to give my reads at any point during the game then simply just ask me. I'm not one for missing questions.

My current reads list:

Town:

Almost50
Mathdino

Town Lean:

Lalendra
Bins
Raya36

Null:

havingfitz
Maxous
Chip Butty
Elmo TeH AzN

Espeonage
Jodaxq

Scum Lean:

Not_Mafia
Sauce

Scum:

None.


If you need me to elaborate on any of these then feel free to ask.

[mutantdevle]

If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.

You realise the mafia have a vig right? We are facing up to 4 deaths per day/night cycle. If the SK dies, their vig basically has the freedom to have a guaranteed kill every night. The SK has at least a chance to hit scum. In contrast, a mafia vig is always going to hit town.

[Mathdino]

mutant is VI-esque but you should get your votes off him. I don't believe his blatant misunderstanding of the setup is intentional. This is a townslip.

mutant, talk to me about Bins and Raya. I obviously disagree with you so you should explain where you're at in reading them as town.

[Almost50]

Ok, guys. Fine. I get it. I'm going to be shot by the Mafia sooner than later and the doctor is already dead so I will accept my fate. Thank you.

Geez! It was never my intention to be the very top TR on each and every readlist.

[mutantdevle]

I don't believe his blatant misunderstanding of the setup is intentional.

Sorry, but what exactly am I misunderstanding? As town, we share a common objective with the SK to eliminate the mafia. Furthermore, the SK is useful to us because of how they can mess with the switches. As soon as the SK dies, we lose all our PRs with them as the remaining scum will just activate the switches so that they can use additional abilities and we can't. If we knew who the SK was, we could save them until the end to lynch them. That way, we get to keep the 50/50 chance that our PRs get to use their ability. If you want another reason to keep the SK alive, then consider that the SK counts as town in regards to the mafia having to gain a majority to win. I'm not saying we should hunt for the SK specifically, but if they were ever to reveal themselves to us then we should keep them alive until the very end as the scum would be in a far stronger position compared to us when the SK is dead.

mutant, talk to me about Bins and Raya. I obviously disagree with you so you should explain where you're at in reading them as town.

Bins: She casually mentions her reads which is always useful for reading her and is engaging in conversation more so than most. I think her confusion with the switching mechanic is fair enough and not something that is scummy. Her only scummy action is how she thought we should be prioritising finding the SK. To me though, that looks like a genuine thought spawned by the logic that 1 less night kill = better for town. Obviously, this logic has since been proven to be flawed due to the SK additional switch abilities but Bins has stated she didn't recognise that the SK had such a strong power which I believe to be the truth on her part. I do recognise the possibility that she is faking the confusion as a way of getting out of such a scum slip which is why she is a town lean for me rather than a town read.

Raya: Despite not saying a lot, the posts she does have seem of good quality to me. She is also scum hunting by asking a few question here and there as well as making criticisms of other's comments. Obviously, she isn't pushing anyone too much but I figure that's understandable at this stage in the game. Finally, I really don't see how she has done anything scummy at all; all of her posts feel genuine to me.

[mutantdevle]

Espeonage
Jodaxq

I thought I removed that from that post... obviously, they are town (and also dead).

[Almost50]

@Mafia: You should be hunting for the SK as a priority. If they picked to be immune to Town action then you can kill them and be safe from their NK. If they picked to be immune to your kill you would still be able to recognize them as they won't die to your shot, and in either case you want to control the switches. Go for it.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

@Mafia: You should be hunting for the SK as a priority. If they picked to be immune to Town action then you can kill them and be safe from their NK. If they picked to be immune to your kill you would still be able to recognize them as they won't die to your shot, and in either case you want to control the switches. Go for it.

Most town post of the game. Yeah Why wouldnt someone put you at the top of the list for Town

[Mathdino]

Ok, guys. Fine. I get it. I'm going to be shot by the Mafia sooner than later and the doctor is already dead so I will accept my fate. Thank you.

Geez! It was never my intention to be the very top TR on each and every readlist.

Between you, me, and just PR hunting it'll probably depend on whose reads are more accurate.

Spoiler: setup stuff, ignore if you don't wanna keep talking setup

Sorry, but what exactly am I misunderstanding?

Mafia does not have a vig. Each mafia member has the ability to switch off one town PR (as opposed to killing). The SK has the ability to switch on/off as many PRs as they want. Mafia/SK have no additional abilities beyond a factional NK and the switch. Once there's one mafia member left, they basically can't switch if they want to continue to NK.

If the SK claimed SK openly and we kept them alive, their optimal play would just be to say exactly who they're switching off so mafia can coordinate. If we know for sure who SK is, we should lynch them no matter what.

tl;dr read the setup again so we can get back to the game

Bins: She casually mentions her reads which is always useful for reading her and is engaging in conversation more so than most. I think her confusion with the switching mechanic is fair enough and not something that is scummy. Her only scummy action is how she thought we should be prioritising finding the SK. To me though, that looks like a genuine thought spawned by the logic that 1 less night kill = better for town. Obviously, this logic has since been proven to be flawed due to the SK additional switch abilities but Bins has stated she didn't recognise that the SK had such a strong power which I believe to be the truth on her part. I do recognise the possibility that she is faking the confusion as a way of getting out of such a scum slip which is why she is a town lean for me rather than a town read.

Raya: Despite not saying a lot, the posts she does have seem of good quality to me. She is also scum hunting by asking a few question here and there as well as making criticisms of other's comments. Obviously, she isn't pushing anyone too much but I figure that's understandable at this stage in the game. Finally, I really don't see how she has done anything scummy at all; all of her posts feel genuine to me.

Bins: Notice that she only started contributing to the conversation after I got people to pressure her. I actually agree that her confusion is genuine, but that's not alignment indicative.

Raya: Post quality is non-alignment indicative. Raya is a good player and is entirely capable of asking questions as scum lol.

You're surface level scumhunting. Both your scumreads are people who, by nature, low-effort post. You should be looking at motivation behind posts, not quality as a player.

Asking questions of people and talking a lot without a real goal in mind is scummy (this is actually why people are scumreading you, but I don't think you're doing it for scummy reasons). It makes you look like you're town because you're contributing, but it absolves you of responsibility for bad wagons. Also allows you to test the waters for possible lynches, waiting for others to make the big pushes so you can sheep them later. This is scum motivation, and I don't think is consistent with a Raya trying to solve the game.

When it comes to Bins, you've again provided evidence she's a good player, but not evidence that her game is inconsistent with scum. A townread is when you find it hard to believe someone is scum. A scumread is when you find it hard to believe someone is town.