Open 704: Switch (Game Over)

[Bins]

If Almost/Math are scumteam they are playing very well but ehhhhh.

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.09

Raya36 (4) - Mathdino, Not_Mafia, Almost50, Bins
Maxous (2) - Sauce, havingfitz
mutantdevle (2) - Elmo TeH AzN, Maxous
havingfitz (1) - Chip Butty
Not_Mafia (1) - Raya36
Sauce (1) - Lalendra

Not Voting (1) - mutantdevle

With 12 votes, it will take 7 to reach majority.

The deadline is Thursday, January 4, 2018, at 8:00 AM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-04 08:00:00).

Moderator Comments

Elmo TeH AzN is on V/LA from December 24 to 30.

[Bins]

I have no idea how to understand the logic of...

Have not been voted yet >>> should be in lynch pool.

[Sauce]

Yes you do.

[Raya36]

I don't think Math's main reason for scumreading you is because you fit in the scumteam he has.

No, I get this and I'm not trying to say his read is bad but I think the attempt to find the team is bad.

[Raya36]

Reassessing (Rereading the game and dumping notes here) (Also I was a little jumpy in my thoughts as I was typing them out so bear with me)
-Math 17 was odd. Not scummy since I can't find any scum motivation in posting it besides maybe trying to unmotivate us? (Although that could easily backfire into motivating us since the stakes are higher than usual.) It's a bit of an odd thing to jump right into at the start of the game also which is why I want to include it here. It's also possible this is an attempt to direct the game towards a mechanic debate to stall. A little unlikely though. Seems most likely to come from town but it's a still worth taking note of.
-Math 23, I see the thought process which lead to bringing up policy lynches as a followup to 17. The part of this post I dislike is calling NM out and also I feel like asking for us to avoid bringing wagons to L-1 could have some motivation behind it but I need to think more about this one. Could be to try to limit the pressuring we can do, but besides that I'm not sure.
-fitz 25, I like this.
-math 26 Curious about what your thoughts were on Maxous not voting during rvs. Do you still find it weird? AI?
-lalendra 27, I like this. Good question and there appears to be an effort to find scum.
-math 28 seems to be from a town pov
-devle 29 was odd. Not sure if it is AI though
-elmo 31, still getting the deflection vibes from this one
-chip 34 seems like a bit of a stretch. There was nothing wrong with that post and the questions were completely valid.
-max 42, don't agree but I can relate since I can see the thought process. The post mentioned was weird. Calling it an over reaction is a bit of an exaggeration.
-lalendra 51, feeling good about lalendra here
-fitz 52, same thoughts but those two reads are pretty safe
-math 58, I like the vote on bins and the reasoning for it
-maxous 59 sheeps math but announces that he's sheeping. Find this more likely to come from town than scum
-devle 61 I like this post
-math 65 is a good post
-almost50 looks town
-sauce hasn't done much but still has a few posts this page
-still like math
-NM is posting but not doing anything
-elmo 89 feeling better about elmo here. I like the vote and the read and their defence was simple enough that it didn't seem like scum trying too hard or anything like that. It could of course be an adjustment of how she is playing.
-going to skim the sk argument. My thoughts haven't really changed from before.
-I think bins is town. Scum probably wouldn't get as confused about how the setup works. Of course there's always the situation where it could have been faked but it came across as genuine confusion.
-math 110, I like the attempt to get out of theory discussion
-maxous 130, I like this post as well.
-chip 134 is full of very safe reads. Basically all his reads could have been sheeped.
-devle 141, seems our lists are pretty similar since scanning over this I agree with just about every one with a few small adjustments.
-devle 142, agreeing with math, this is probably a townslip.
-math 143, town points to math for pointing the slip out. He could have just ignored it which would have made sense for scum.
-devle 145, really like the bins read
-sauce 183, as I talked about earlier this list is super weird coming from either allignment but I see it coming from town more than I do scum since I can't see scum putting just about every player down as scum. Way too obvious.
-I think I want to leave sauce alone today at least since he only just started talking.


I'm going to sort through these and come up with a list in a bit.

[Almost50]

Do you have a townread on me, because if not I will vote you.

All was going well until I read ^this^
The quoted could've been stated in so many way that are not as scummy. You could've asked for her reads and then explained why you were voting her if she's not TRing you. or you could've stopped right there without attaching this quote to the post. I'm having a hard time trying to parse the necessity for you to put it this way, and I'm not sure how I should be feeling about it either.

[Raya36]

I want to iso and meta dive NM now

ISO:
-rvs vote and two random posts
-votes me
-2 random posts
-"lolwut" in responce to list with all scumreads
-votes devle
-reads hangman
-willing to lynch me, fitz, or bins after math suggests scumteam
-says he isn't willing to just lynch anybody
-random post
-votes me
-votes me a lot

D1 META READS
Town Game:
Open 686
-still seems to be trying but not as much as I've noticed in his scum games.
-mostly one-liners


Scum Game:
Micro 746
-lots of posts
-seems to be actually trying
-a lot of jokeposting but not as much as in this game
-a bit more aggressive

I still want to do more later but this is all I hae time for now.
UNVOTE:

[Sauce]

Do you have a townread on me, because if not I will vote you.

All was going well until I read ^this^
The quoted could've been stated in so many way that are not as scummy. You could've asked for her reads and then explained why you were voting her if she's not TRing you. or you could've stopped right there without attaching this quote to the post. I'm having a hard time trying to parse the necessity for you to put it this way, and I'm not sure how I should be feeling about it either.

Alright this is really scummy. Why would a townie be less blunt with his or her affirmations than scum. Slimey, slithering scum would try to sugarcoat this to make it look less intimidating or whatever. I'm making pushing for your lynch a priority.

If Almost/Math are scumteam they are playing very well but ehhhhh.

Good question nr 1: Did Almost not say that he wasn't scumreading Raya?

Good question nr 2: Would someone like Math be really silent in the scum chat, or would he go flamboyant with plans to con town into thinking him and another buddy cannot be scum together because their behavior is too tightly linked?

I think awkward moments like Math calling a two-vote-strong random vote wagon from page 2 lynchbait, or sweettalking Raya about what a delightful player she is might be amounting due to forced interaction upon having decided to be overly active, and/or even work together a lot.

Again, I don't see any reason to divert my attention away from

Lalendra, Chip, Maxous, Math and Almost

. I know it would be hard to get a lynch on Math going today but not only would it be likely in my mind that he'd flip scum, it would also be really awesome if we as town could be vigilant and bold enough to punish such flamboyant scum before he can choke us to death in lylo.

[Almost50]

OK.. I literally give up on being able to read Bins ever. I keep flip flopping on her and I've come to the conclusion it's mostly due to how she plays and posts in general. Take this, for instance:

I'm going to be fine voting any of the bottom four because I've POE'd it to those. Realized Raya is a little lower because my townreads at this point are pretty strong.

This rubbed me the wrong way. In my mind, the Town thought process goes like "I was TRing X for saying that, but them saying this feels scummy". They don't go "I'm TRing X, but now they've dropped to null, but I still don't see the case on them, but I'm willing to vote them because when I said null just 4 minutes ago I didn't know they were actually this low on my read list". This feels like scum trying to find a smooth transition from a stated TR to casting a vote on the subject.

My top pick for SK right now is Chip. He's playing exactly how I'd imagine a lurky SK would play. His reads felt VERY fake. Other than that I can't really distinguish lazy town/scum.

However, this doesn't go with the above (i.e. doesn't feel like it could come from scum) because Bins herself was the target of much scrutiny for precisely this .. SK hunting. If Bins is scum she's practically begging the SK to shoot her, and -in the case she flips scum- doesn't even help her case on anyone, since no one would be looking over her ISO to see who she scum read.

tl;dr: If Bin is scum (from the first quote) she's clearly playing against her win con in the 2nd quote, which leads me to believe she is either Town or IS the SK she's too busy looking for.

[Raya36]

Popping in to place a vote

VOTE: Chip

[Mathdino]

I've never seen anything good ever come from someone trying to guess the scumteam D1. Definitely hunt for scum but I don't see the point in all the meta and preflip associatives for the sake of trying to come up with the entire scum team.

This is a fair question. I usually avoid pre-flip associatives like the plague, so you're basically asking why I'm playing against playstyle as a cautious player.

Based on the setup spec I don't believe we can handle even a single mislynch (terrible setup IMO). For that reason, I'm unwilling to come up with 3 scumreads that don't fit together as a scumteam.

Imagine being in 5p LyLo. Do you, as a town, just lynch a scummy person, or go back through the game and actually deliberate on the team first?

Don't answer that, that question is rhetorical, I'm going to keep trying to find a scumteam regardless of what you think

[Mathdino]

Fuck it, I don't really care about any of the discussion of the past 2 days, this is all a distraction.

I am hardclaiming a cop guilty on Bins (mafia).

I'm not giving you breadcrumbs because I don't give a shit. Look through my ISO if you want to verify.

Due to the nature of this setup, I don't believe we can EVER lynch town. The reason I am hardclaiming is because I think there are 3 scenarios that happen today:

1. We lynch town. Fuck, we lose, and I might get shot.
2. We lynch Bins. This is looking pretty unlikely now (thanks for all the faith guys).
3. We lynch scum other than Bins, in which case I definitely get shot for being right all the time.

I was only avoiding claiming on the offchance that I could actually drive a lynch on her by sheer presence/personality.

I was scumreading Raya for avoiding Bins. Now I'm not sure. Bins seems perfectly fine with lynching Raya and I'm not sure whether she D1 busses.
UNVOTE: Raya
I'm also not sure if she KNEW I had a guilty on her, which seriously fucks up our ability to get associations.

I need you guys to help me reread this game through the lens of Bins being confscum (and me being conftown while we're at it), and find me scumpartners before I die. Cuz I'm fucking confused.

[Raya36]

Fair enough. Still not something I would likely do but I see more logic in it now. The way you posted it seemed like you were really confident but I'm correct it's more of a confirmation that your scumreads make sense. I was mostly asking this question since if irc ealier you said something about pre-flip associations being bad or you were scum reading someone for it.

VOTE: bins
I'll look back over things in a few.

I think with this claim our best shot is lynching bins.

[Mathdino]

Fair enough. Still not something I would likely do but I see more logic in it now. The way you posted it seemed like you were really confident but I'm correct it's more of a confirmation that your scumreads make sense. I was mostly asking this question since if irc ealier you said something about pre-flip associations being bad or you were scum reading someone for it.

VOTE: bins
I'll look back over things in a few.

I think with this claim our best shot is lynching bins.

Thanks Captain Obvious

Since we can't lynch town anyway, I'm actually more interested in lynching one of her partners today and having the vig or SK shoot her tonight. Lynching Bins is the lazy way out. We have 10 pages of associations to look over.

[Mathdino]

Good question nr 2: Would someone like Math be really silent in the scum chat, or would he go flamboyant with plans to con town into thinking him and another buddy cannot be scum together because their behavior is too tightly linked?

I think awkward moments like Math calling a two-vote-strong random vote wagon from page 2 lynchbait, or sweettalking Raya about what a delightful player she is might be amounting due to forced interaction upon having decided to be overly active, and/or even work together a lot.

Again, I don't see any reason to divert my attention away from Lalendra, Chip, Maxous, Math and Almost. I know it would be hard to get a lynch on Math going today but not only would it be likely in my mind that he'd flip scum, it would also be really awesome if we as town could be vigilant and bold enough to punish such flamboyant scum before he can choke us to death in lylo.

you're a bad player bro

11 scumreads but the WEAKEST of all of them was on Bins

you're actually fucking suggesting that vigilante fucking shoots me

what a piece of work

[Raya36]

You're welcome lol

Okay, makes sense I guess although if were not basically a hundred percent sure I say we go for bins anyway since assuming your claim is true that means we won't miss when lynching bins. No point in taking a chance at mislynching when we know we can lynch scum for sure.

Also what do you mean by "since we can't lynch town anyway".

[Mathdino]

Also what do you mean by "since we can't lynch town anyway".

Say scum shoots town every day (which would be smart of them if we're a good town, and is especially smart of them given that one scum had a N1 guilty).

Then say we lynch scum every day. Worst case scenario, we get mafia one by one by one and lynch SK last.

Start of D1: 12p 8/3/1
Start of D2: 9p 6/2/1
Start of D3: 6p 4/1/1
Start of D4: 4p 3/0/1 MYLO

Now imagine we lynch a single town today and mafia every other day:

Start of D1: 12p 8/3/1
Start of D2: 9p 5/3/1
Start of D3: 6p 3/2/1
Even if we get a lynch at this point (which could only be with scum's help), if we lynch mafia,
Start of D4: 3p 1/1/1
and town loses.

If we mislynch town once, I think that can be treated as a loss. Looking at the setup's history, this holds true for all games where 2 town get shot n1. It's not a good setup.

[havingfitz]

Since we can't lynch town anyway, I'm actually more interested in lynching one of her partners today and having the vig or SK shoot her tonight.

Not sure outting yourself, if true, was the best thing. Why aren't you voting Bins?

With switches there's no guarantee Bins gets vigged...maaybe the sk does it? But if you're full of shit and Bins is town and we mislynch today instead of "guilty" Bins...and town Bins is nk'd...then idfk....town's pretty much really screwed. Plus if Bins is scum and turns out to be the vig switch....good for the town.

I'll wait till Bins responds before I consider moving my vote.

P.edit...didn't factor last few posts

[Mathdino]

Not sure outting yourself, if true, was the best thing. Why aren't you voting Bins?

With switches there's no guarantee Bins gets vigged...maaybe the sk does it? But if you're full of shit and Bins is town and we mislynch today instead of "guilty" Bins...and town Bins is nk'd...then idfk....town's pretty much really screwed. Plus if Bins is scum and turns out to be the vig switch....good for the town.

I'll wait till Bins responds before I consider moving my vote.

Thanks for not believing me. At least ISO me; I put all sorts of shit indicating I was never going to start townreading her.

I'm not voting Bins because we're in a shithole tomorrow if people just speedlynch her now and get no discussion out of it.

Optimal play for Bins would be to
1. counterclaim cop
2. start trolling and making bad associations
3. get herself speedlynched so we can't make associations at all

I'm assuming that you guys are smart enough to not believe the "oh wow lol Math is faking a guilty" defence. Which I've never done and would be completely outside the realm of possibility for my playstyle/principles. And I'm hoping you guys are smart enough not to believe a counterclaim given that I, as scum, would have a 1/9 chance of faking a guilty on the actual cop.

[Raya36]

Okay, the "anyway" was throwing me off. Sounded like you were trying to say it is impossible for us to hit town.

And rest assured. I believe the cop claim and I highly doubt scum would try to pull something like this off.

I still kind of think we should lynch bins. Not right away, give her some time to respond but once were closer to deadline. We should still look at associatives but I think with what's at stake the safer lynch would be her.

[Raya36]

Associatives from Bins iso
-RVS votes NM ("totally very random rvs vote"). Emphasis on it being random makes me a little uncomfortable
-Jumps on Math (who is probtown now anyway)
-doesn't think devle is scum
-doesn't think math is scum
-votes elmo (elmo is probtown)
-thinks maxous is a decent place for a vote
-good feels for lalendra
-again says that devle is probnotscum
-maybe good feels for fitz (nullish read, possibly partner?)
-changes mind on devle and calls something he says sketchy
-no issue with me or sauce
-likes almost for tow
-questions chip on reads and stuff (maybe trying to interact but without saying much about the other?)
-says it's hard to call one of maxous' posts scum-motivated
-scumreads sauce's list but said it was initally a townread
-says something about NM self-hammering in the past
-245 reads list, bottom two (chip, elmo prob not scum, rest could be)
-top sk pick: chip
-mentions elmo being gone
-some weird shade on almost/math scumteam???

Probably not:
-math
-elmo

Null
-everyone else

Possibly:
-fitz
-sauce??

(Someone can decide where to throw me in this pile)

Also does someone want to check the associations the other way around for fitz and sauce?

[Lalendra]

Considering I was already scumreading Fitz and Sauce, I am probably not the best person to answer your question. But I'm glad I'm not the only one who sees it.

I would like to lynch confscum (I believe Math's claim and am willing to sheep someone I consider to be reliable town PR), but understand that it would be better to wait and see how much info we can get. Weird that all three went silent after Math's proclamation (aside from Fitz's single half-hearted retort) but could be coincidence. I'm hesitant to say we have it figured out but this is a good start.

tl;dr I'm down with voting Fitz, Sauce or Bins, don't particularly care in what order.

[mutantdevle]

@MD: Is there anything much other than meta behind your Raya vote?

I've looked at the ISOs of MD, NM, Raya, and A50 just now, but I still need to go back and do a proper readthrough. Will answer any questions / comments addressed to me then.

Can you not use 'MD' as an abbreviation for Mathdino, please? It's incredibly confusing, kek.

[havingfitz]

Thanks for not believing me.

1) I didn't say I didn't believe your claim. FTR I'm inclined to.
2) I'm not going to blindly believe you...I've been burned before.
3) If we do decide to believe you I'd prefer the sure thing for today's lynch and discuss likely associations for vig (and sk?) to act on tonight following a Bins scum flip.

P.edit Lalendra looking worse every post she makes...smh.