Open 704: Switch (Game Over)


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Post Post #55 (isolation #0) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:40 am

Post by Raya36 »

Early townreads on Math and Chip
In post 31, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Because you post walls a ton of them. But that's merely opinion.

So you vote me because of a null read.

So why your vote on me and not mafia who is unreadable is that for the whole game or just at the start?
Don't like this responce to being voted.
In post 52, havingfitz wrote:Lalendra feels town to me. Math probably as well.
What about Lalendra feels town to you? I have her as null.
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Post Post #63 (isolation #1) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:38 am

Post by Raya36 »

In post 58, Mathdino wrote: I like you but all your reads except me are backwards. What about the response is weird?
You clearly explained that you were voting her because you read one of her posts as scum and one as town and you were voting as an attempt to sort her better. Her then saying why are you voting me, a null read, instead of NM, your other null read, comes across as overlooking the main point of the vote and a bit defensive. Your vote was clearly there just to get more out of her and from a town perspective I would expect someone to instead of responding to the post in a defensive way to post other things to help others sort them.

It just doesn't make sense to me for someone to vote someone because they want to pressure them to make them easier to sort, then that person, instead of trying to produce more content so they can be sorted easier, posts in responce to the vote defensively.

How are my other reads backwards? I have Chip as a townlean and Lalendra as null. (Also have Elmo as null leaning scum.) Can you explain your strong townread on Lalendra? Also what are your thoughts on Chip and Elmo?

Going to put mt vote here
VOTE: Elmo
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Post Post #78 (isolation #2) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:02 am

Post by Raya36 »

In post 65, Mathdino wrote: I love your reasoning on Elmo from a rhetorical standpoint but I think defenciveness is an overused scumtell, especially on experienced players. You're right that Elmo had no reason to be defencive about my vote. Which is why I don't think it was defenciveness, more confused flailing attempted scumhunting. The meta on this site is, in my experience, to just ignore early votes on you if you don't want to be scumread.
You could be right about the defensiveness not actually being defensiveness. In my experience scum have been caught before for being too defensive which is why I brought it up but I probably wouldn't lynch over it alone. I'm also using the term defensive loosely. It might be better described as deflective. I still want to leave my vote here though at least until I get a stronger read on her.

In post 8, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:VOTE: mutantdevle
No walls from you kthx
In post 19, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Like Fitz just said though. Let's say the big takes a shot and misses. You then have what a 75% chance of nailing scum and then granted if I did quick math it's lylo but the odds are very heavily in towns favor for an actual win of the game.
In post 47, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:Your Meta is to be a nit picky with your vote. And you like walls.
1st post reads town on gut. 2nd post reads scum because it's like it's talking to the town being like "Hey it's not unfair, you guys have a chance". 3rd post is ancillarily helpful in an unfortunately low effort way. At the very least I can appreciate the utility of the Elmo wagon pressuring her to actually do something, but her response leans town.
Looking this over again I noticed the use of the word "you" in 19 is a bit odd. Maybe I'm nitpicking over it not being "we". What do you think?
Lalendra's actions all seem focused around getting scum. She pressures me and gets me to explain myself more instead of pouncing on me, then announces the results of that pressure.
This is fair.
Chip's "what does this have to do with scumhunting?" question was reasonable but the "are you trying to look busy????" is classic suspicion-throwing in the form of asking dumb questions that amount to "are you scum using [x] strategy?" which everyone will always answer 'no' to.
The "what does this have to with scumhunting" is part of where the townlean comes from. The "are you trying to look busy" was rhetorical I think.
I like Raya as a player (I read through your Newbie scum game with nancy, respect for that) but I'm getting a lot of scum motivation from that post. N_M's vote is good but I think better served on Bins.
Haha thanks! Which post are you talking about? You're getting scum motivation from my post or a different one?
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Post Post #84 (isolation #3) » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:37 am

Post by Raya36 »

Do you mind explaining why you think it was scum motivated?
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Post Post #93 (isolation #4) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:51 am

Post by Raya36 »

Thanks Math

UNVOTE: Elmo

So we are down two town rn so there are 12 in the game total. There are three scum in the game and one sk which makes 8v3v1. Rn we have a 25% chance of hitting scum. So if we mislynch, scum get a kill, sk gets a kill and hits a townie, and vig misses we are now down 4 more townies. We'll have 8 total players 3 of which are scum and 1 is sk. We would be in a 4v3v1 situation. Lylo and a 50% chance of hitting anyone but town. About a 38% chance of hitting scum.
Did I do the same calculations as you?
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Post Post #129 (isolation #5) » Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:54 am

Post by Raya36 »

In post 95, Mathdino wrote:
In post 93, Raya36 wrote:UNVOTE: Elmo

So we are down two town rn so there are 12 in the game total. There are three scum in the game and one sk which makes 8v3v1. Rn we have a 25% chance of hitting scum. So if we mislynch, scum get a kill, sk gets a kill and hits a townie, and vig misses we are now down 4 more townies. We'll have 8 total players 3 of which are scum and 1 is sk. We would be in a 4v3v1 situation. Lylo and a 50% chance of hitting anyone but town. About a 38% chance of hitting scum.
Did I do the same calculations as you?
Your Math is roughly correct but keep in mind lynches aren't random, and this hurts town. The very presence of scumpartner reduces the chances of a scum lynch. Plus, in 4v3v1, we've essentially already lost. Lynching SK gives mafia majority, and lynching mafia allows both to hit 2 more town. That all said, this is largely game irrelevant now.
I did this as worse case scenario. You're right about the scum partner thing. We'll just have to be careful in choosing our lynch candidate.
Your unvote in response to me pushing the shittiness of the Elmo wagon, without putting your vote somewhere else, doesn't really help your case tbh.
Oh, it wasn't supposed to be in responce but I see how it looks that way now. I unvoted because I was only keeping the vote more to get more out of Elmo and she posted so I didn't see much use in keeping my vote there anymore.
Raya if you want a good place to park your vote, try here.
I'm not convinced on that being a scumslip. Town should be hunting scum not the sk but the sk is still a threat so her post is completely reasonable. There's just one sk and to eliminate them will remove an extra kill every night so I definitely see the logic behind the post. I think this is honestly just a poorly thought out idea coming from town. Bins comes across as really genuine too.
(But yeah, lets hunt for scum not the sk.)
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Post Post #154 (isolation #6) » Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:26 am

Post by Raya36 »

Prodge probably won't be on until tonight or tomorrow
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Post Post #158 (isolation #7) » Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:15 am

Post by Raya36 »

So, were probably going to lose power any minute now...
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Post Post #173 (isolation #8) » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:17 pm

Post by Raya36 »

Power just got back! I'll get some posts up in a bit
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Post Post #216 (isolation #9) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:49 pm

Post by Raya36 »

In post 149, Mathdino wrote:Raya is a good player
awww thanks! :]


So devle is probtown after that slip

Honestly townreading Sauce over that list where basically everyone was scum. I doubt mafia would be so obvious as to keep there options open like that. Could be sk too as some people mentioned but I'm staying away from that since I don't have much sk hunting experience.

Will respond to you in a bit fitz

@math
Scum:
Newbie 1837
two-fold matrix6

Town:
Deco Murders
newbie 1799
Newbie 1831

Want to put a vote here for a bit
VOTE: NM
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Post Post #223 (isolation #10) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:24 pm

Post by Raya36 »

Why are you trying so hard to put together a scumteam 9 pages into D1?
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Post Post #225 (isolation #11) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:32 pm

Post by Raya36 »

:facepalm:

I've never seen anything good ever come from someone trying to guess the scumteam D1. Definitely hunt for scum but I don't see the point in all the meta and preflip associatives for the sake of trying to come up with the entire scum team.
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Post Post #226 (isolation #12) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:34 pm

Post by Raya36 »

Anyway, I'm going to bed. I'll finish my reread at some point tomorrow and post my thoughts. I can take this more seriously now that the holidays are over
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Post Post #246 (isolation #13) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:03 am

Post by Raya36 »

In post 238, Maxous wrote: ok, but are you suggesting Mathdino is scum because he's trying to force a scumteam so early?
or more likely to be scum at least
Nope. I just don't think it's a good way to go about finding scum and 99% of the time it will be wrong. Math has done tons this game but I think his energy would be better spent elsewhere than diving into meta and preflip associates to try to solve the entire game D1. The meta is fine and he's correct in saying that as scum I tend to avoid my partners in the thread but this info would be better used after a flip and not to try to solve the game solely based on assuming I'm scum.

Anyway, I'm working on rereading the thread but it's a bit slow since I'm keeping notes. After that I'll probably dive into isos and maybe do some meta reading.
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Post Post #254 (isolation #14) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:50 am

Post by Raya36 »

In post 248, Bins wrote: I don't think Math's main reason for scumreading you is because you fit in the scumteam he has.
No, I get this and I'm not trying to say his read is bad but I think the attempt to find the team is bad.
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Post Post #255 (isolation #15) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:50 am

Post by Raya36 »

Reassessing (Rereading the game and dumping notes here) (Also I was a little jumpy in my thoughts as I was typing them out so bear with me)
-Math was odd. Not scummy since I can't find any scum motivation in posting it besides maybe trying to unmotivate us? (Although that could easily backfire into motivating us since the stakes are higher than usual.) It's a bit of an odd thing to jump right into at the start of the game also which is why I want to include it here. It's also possible this is an attempt to direct the game towards a mechanic debate to stall. A little unlikely though. Seems most likely to come from town but it's a still worth taking note of.
-Math , I see the thought process which lead to bringing up policy lynches as a followup to 17. The part of this post I dislike is calling NM out and also I feel like asking for us to avoid bringing wagons to L-1 could have some motivation behind it but I need to think more about this one. Could be to try to limit the pressuring we can do, but besides that I'm not sure.
-fitz , I like this.
-math Curious about what your thoughts were on Maxous not voting during rvs. Do you still find it weird? AI?
-lalendra , I like this. Good question and there appears to be an effort to find scum.
-math seems to be from a town pov
-devle was odd. Not sure if it is AI though
-elmo , still getting the deflection vibes from this one
-chip seems like a bit of a stretch. There was nothing wrong with that post and the questions were completely valid.
-max , don't agree but I can relate since I can see the thought process. The post mentioned was weird. Calling it an over reaction is a bit of an exaggeration.
-lalendra , feeling good about lalendra here
-fitz , same thoughts but those two reads are pretty safe
-math , I like the vote on bins and the reasoning for it
-maxous sheeps math but announces that he's sheeping. Find this more likely to come from town than scum
-devle I like this post
-math is a good post
-almost50 looks town
-sauce hasn't done much but still has a few posts this page
-still like math
-NM is posting but not doing anything
-elmo feeling better about elmo here. I like the vote and the read and their defence was simple enough that it didn't seem like scum trying too hard or anything like that. It could of course be an adjustment of how she is playing.
-going to skim the sk argument. My thoughts haven't really changed from before.
-I think bins is town. Scum probably wouldn't get as confused about how the setup works. Of course there's always the situation where it could have been faked but it came across as genuine confusion.
-math , I like the attempt to get out of theory discussion
-maxous , I like this post as well.
-chip is full of very safe reads. Basically all his reads could have been sheeped.
-devle , seems our lists are pretty similar since scanning over this I agree with just about every one with a few small adjustments.
-devle , agreeing with math, this is probably a townslip.
-math , town points to math for pointing the slip out. He could have just ignored it which would have made sense for scum.
-devle , really like the bins read
-sauce , as I talked about earlier this list is super weird coming from either allignment but I see it coming from town more than I do scum since I can't see scum putting just about every player down as scum. Way too obvious.
-I think I want to leave sauce alone today at least since he only just started talking.


I'm going to sort through these and come up with a list in a bit.
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Post Post #257 (isolation #16) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:11 am

Post by Raya36 »

I want to iso and meta dive NM now

ISO:
-rvs vote and two random posts
-votes me
-2 random posts
-"lolwut" in responce to list with all scumreads
-votes devle
-reads hangman
-willing to lynch me, fitz, or bins after math suggests scumteam
-says he isn't willing to just lynch anybody
-random post
-votes me
-votes me a lot

D1 META READS
Town Game:
Open 686
-still seems to be trying but not as much as I've noticed in his scum games.
-mostly one-liners


Scum Game:
Micro 746
-lots of posts
-seems to be actually trying
-a lot of jokeposting but not as much as in this game
-a bit more aggressive

I still want to do more later but this is all I hae time for now.
UNVOTE:
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Post Post #260 (isolation #17) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:35 am

Post by Raya36 »

Popping in to place a vote

VOTE: Chip
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Post Post #263 (isolation #18) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:23 am

Post by Raya36 »

Fair enough. Still not something I would likely do but I see more logic in it now. The way you posted it seemed like you were really confident but I'm correct it's more of a confirmation that your scumreads make sense. I was mostly asking this question since if irc ealier you said something about pre-flip associations being bad or you were scum reading someone for it.

VOTE: bins
I'll look back over things in a few.

I think with this claim our best shot is lynching bins.
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Post Post #266 (isolation #19) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:33 am

Post by Raya36 »

You're welcome lol

Okay, makes sense I guess although if were not basically a hundred percent sure I say we go for bins anyway since assuming your claim is true that means we won't miss when lynching bins. No point in taking a chance at mislynching when we know we can lynch scum for sure.

Also what do you mean by "since we can't lynch town anyway".
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Post Post #270 (isolation #20) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:56 am

Post by Raya36 »

Okay, the "anyway" was throwing me off. Sounded like you were trying to say it is impossible for us to hit town.

And rest assured. I believe the cop claim and I highly doubt scum would try to pull something like this off.

I still kind of think we should lynch bins. Not right away, give her some time to respond but once were closer to deadline. We should still look at associatives but I think with what's at stake the safer lynch would be her.
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Post Post #271 (isolation #21) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:57 am

Post by Raya36 »

Associatives from Bins iso
-RVS votes NM ("totally very random rvs vote"). Emphasis on it being random makes me a little uncomfortable
-Jumps on Math (who is probtown now anyway)
-doesn't think devle is scum
-doesn't think math is scum
-votes elmo (elmo is probtown)
-thinks maxous is a decent place for a vote
-good feels for lalendra
-again says that devle is probnotscum
-maybe good feels for fitz (nullish read, possibly partner?)
-changes mind on devle and calls something he says sketchy
-no issue with me or sauce
-likes almost for tow
-questions chip on reads and stuff (maybe trying to interact but without saying much about the other?)
-says it's hard to call one of maxous' posts scum-motivated
-scumreads sauce's list but said it was initally a townread
-says something about NM self-hammering in the past
- reads list, bottom two (chip, elmo prob not scum, rest could be)
-top sk pick: chip
-mentions elmo being gone
-some weird shade on almost/math scumteam???

Probably not:
-math
-elmo

Null
-everyone else

Possibly:
-fitz
-sauce??

(Someone can decide where to throw me in this pile)

Also does someone want to check the associations the other way around for fitz and sauce?
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Post Post #276 (isolation #22) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:25 am

Post by Raya36 »

Quick readslist
(Haven't looked too much into associatives for these yet)

Town
-Math
-Elmo
-Almost (heavy lean)
-Devle (lean)
-Lalendra (more of a lean)

Null
-Maxous (leaning town)
-Chip (leaning scum/sk)

Scum
-sauce (slight lean)
-Fitz (more of a lean)
-NM (very slight townlean based mostly off of meta)
-Bins
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Post Post #278 (isolation #23) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:29 am

Post by Raya36 »

Actually just read fitz last post...

VOTE: fitz

I think I want this here for a bit

Pedit: post before his last post
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Post Post #279 (isolation #24) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:29 am

Post by Raya36 »

@fitz Will get on that in a few. Gotta go in a bit though so I'm not sure I'll get the post finished
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Post Post #282 (isolation #25) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:33 am

Post by Raya36 »

In post 274, havingfitz wrote:
In post 269, Mathdino wrote:Thanks for not believing me.
1) I didn't say I didn't believe your claim. FTR I'm inclined to.
2) I'm not going to blindly believe you...I've been burned before.
3) If we do decide to believe you I'd prefer the sure thing for today's lynch and discuss likely associations for vig (and sk?) to act on tonight following a Bins scum flip.

P.edit Lalendra looking worse every post she makes...smh.
1) had a bit of a defensive vibe
2) seems like a bad attempt to resist believing math. What makes you hesitate in believing him?
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Post Post #283 (isolation #26) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:34 am

Post by Raya36 »

Don't like the push on lalendra either
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Post Post #290 (isolation #27) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:56 am

Post by Raya36 »

On Fitz:
-First few posts seemed like busywork/not really posting anything at all
- wasn't bad but it's not like it couldn't have come from scum.
-early townreads on lalendra and math (notice how he's throwing shade on lalendra and doubting math now)
-Tells Chip he could be busier.
-reread; pinged by maxous, starts scumreading math, says some of the stuff chip said was bad, more being pinged by maxous, likes devle, more bad stuff about math while defending bins
-doubting his math read
-asks more questions, defends bins more
-basically the associatives are terrible with bins and math and your reads are jumping all over the place and seem to be forged
-calls NM useless
-when I bring up math's pre-flip associatives you jump all over him for that
-hate the shade and push on lalendra
-the shading/doubt in math's claim was just bad
-already covered the latest couple posts


So yeah, forget what I said earlier about lynching bins. Let's lynch fitz then the vig/sk can shoot bins at night. If that doesn't happen we can lynch bins tomorrow without too much stress.

But to sum this all up // tldr
-Bins is basically confscum - fitz defends her and townreads her the whole game
-Math is basically conftown and is pushing bins - fitz pushes math once he realizes that he is pushing bins hard.
-reads seemed forged and are covered in scum motivation
-seems like everything he's done so far is on an agenda
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Post Post #291 (isolation #28) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:05 am

Post by Raya36 »

In post 285, havingfitz wrote: 1) says I'm inclined to believe Math in response to him saying I don't. HTF is that defensive?
2) I said why. I've been burned by jumping to believe claims before. No need to rush a claim reaction yet.
1) "I didn't say that" and the "FTR" just made it sound imo. Anyone else getting this vibe too or is it just me?
2 ) We aren't that far from deadline and there's no reason to not believe this. I've thought about it from a few different angles. I can't seen scum making this claim. It seems to me you just don't want us to believe the claim or at the very least you want to stall analysis based on the claim.
Your posts are bad Raya. Like you're just posting shit for the sake of posting.
Nope. This is just you trying to discredit what I'm saying. Nice try.
P edit...what pish on Lalendra? Not liking her recent posts? Pointing out the flaws in her Sauce accusations? Smh....ok.....
is shade being thrown if I've ever seen it.
seems like shading and pushing to me.
Bottom of slight push again and last but not least
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Post Post #292 (isolation #29) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:06 am

Post by Raya36 »

*made it sound defensive imo
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Post Post #299 (isolation #30) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:16 am

Post by Raya36 »

I'm not completely sold on Maxous. Can someone explain?

Rn my lynch pool is fitz, bins, sauce, chip and in that order but I'm a little hesitant on sauce and even more on chip. I'm very confident in fitz and bins being scum though.

Also I realize I made a mistake on NM. He should be in between maxous and chip in null.
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Post Post #300 (isolation #31) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:17 am

Post by Raya36 »

Don't have time to metadive fitz rn but I'll certainly do it when I get back from skiing tonight if no one has done it yet.
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Post Post #365 (isolation #32) » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:17 pm

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Wait... you're joking right...
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Post Post #417 (isolation #33) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:15 am

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I say we lynch bins today and use the flip to try to find partners/possible scumteam. I don't think we should leave claimed scum and hope someone kills them overnight.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #34) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:36 am

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In post 437, havingfitz wrote:I think it's time to come clean guys.

I'm the Doc. Whoever the real cop is I'll protect tonight.
Is this a joke?
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Post Post #439 (isolation #35) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:37 am

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(Kind of confused. Will reread again in a few)
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Post Post #441 (isolation #36) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:10 am

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Wasn't sure if he seriously was claiming doc and forgot that the doc was killed
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Post Post #457 (isolation #37) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:02 am

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Well, this is really confusing but I know for sure we should lynch bins. I don't think were going to get anywhere as is so intent to hammer bins.
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Post Post #461 (isolation #38) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:07 am

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Oh sorry, missed that.

Would you like to do the honours?
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Post Post #477 (isolation #39) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:34 pm

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VOTE: Bins
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