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Post Post #12 (isolation #0) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:23 am

Post by havingfitz »

/confirm
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Post Post #18 (isolation #1) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:29 am

Post by havingfitz »

VOTE: Assembler
Probably vote him eventually anyways.
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Post Post #21 (isolation #2) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:02 am

Post by havingfitz »

VOTE: Jaydragon

A Jaydragonwagon! (I just wanted to say that)
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Post Post #29 (isolation #3) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:23 am

Post by havingfitz »

VOTE: Jaydragon

L-1?
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Post Post #40 (isolation #4) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:07 am

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VOTE: Kop
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Post Post #52 (isolation #5) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:15 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 45, Mathdino wrote:Fitz, sell me on Kopscum?
He usually participates in RVS if he's around at game start. His drop in felt odd.

Plus...lynching him saves the mod from multiple prods and an eventual replacement!
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Post Post #56 (isolation #6) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:19 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 51, UnaBombaH wrote:me being finnish
:eek:

I'll hold off on my Finnish policy lynch policy until next year.
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Post Post #61 (isolation #7) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:38 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 58, UnaBombaH wrote:
In post 56, havingfitz wrote:
In post 51, UnaBombaH wrote:me being finnish
:eek:

I'll hold off on my Finnish policy lynch policy until next year.
Now why is that? :lol:
Just kidding...I like Scandanavians.
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Post Post #63 (isolation #8) » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:44 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 61, havingfitz wrote:
In post 58, UnaBombaH wrote:
In post 56, havingfitz wrote:
In post 51, UnaBombaH wrote:me being finnish
:eek:

I'll hold off on my Finnish policy lynch policy until next year.
Now why is that? :lol:
Just kidding...I like Scandanavians.
Or would Nordic apply more to Finns? Pardon.
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Post Post #121 (isolation #9) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:58 am

Post by havingfitz »

UNVOTE: Kop while I'm...

v/LA until Wednesday for New Year's stuff.


Happy New Year to you all.
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Post Post #242 (isolation #10) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:27 am

Post by havingfitz »

V/la over :(

Will catch up with a read from the start asap.
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Post Post #247 (isolation #11) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:23 am

Post by havingfitz »

Spoiler: Catch up -
So not much worth comment (IMO) up till the middle of page 2.

by Kop seems a bit disingenuous so I voted him.

A little closer look shows Kop tends to participate in RVS when he makes an early appearance. Granted I do not recall if any of the few examples I found were him as scum…but there were def a few examples of him doing it as town.

I didn't care for Impede's for the same reason I didn't like the Kop post. IMO if you think something might of happened in the game…and it can be ascertained fairly easily by looking for yourself…then to act a certain way in a post without just checking for yourself strikes a nerve with me.

wrt Math's ..I actually had reasons beyond policy lynching for voting Kop. I wouldn't endorse a PL on him unless he pulled a disappearing act or was being otherwise useless.

The survivor discussion is going on longer than it needed to….ffs.

Nice of Math to try moving things ahead in . Not sure I cared for this post. Seemed a bit wishy washy on what “reads” he did provide.

Kind of like Impede calling out Math for calling him town.

Good post by Kop in .

Hello Hawk. I neither missed or not missed you. Good to see you again.

wrt BigFinn’s contribution… <crickets>

I was starting to get tired of Jay’s game around and Math votes in in the very nex post. Makes me feel a bit better about Math. Seems like he is thinking similarly to me.

Liking Kop as of round page 6.

Almost50 is doing a lot of patting himself on the back.

is more of Math saying stuff I am in line with. tr Math.

...why am I one of your two scum reads?

UnaBomb is just kind of in the game. Starting to suspect him a bit. (subsequent posts have me leaning town on him)

Almost50’s feels like scum voting someone they know is going to flip town. (as Una notes in the next post…+ towards Una)

makes me want to lynch him.

wrt Math’s …good math you have there Math. In the right circumstances I like hypoclaims. This seems like a good game to do one.
If I am hider I will hide behind Assembler.


Not a fan of Jay’s hider chat (185, ).


If I am hider I will hide behind RedFlavor.


Reads:

Townleans – Math, Una, Kop, …………………………..momo
Needs sorting (t-s) – Creature, Hawk, Assembler, Almost
Undecided….need to ISO - RedFlavor
Suspect – Jay, Impede

VOTE: Jay
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Post Post #249 (isolation #12) » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:37 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 247, havingfitz wrote:Townleans – Math, Una, Kop, …………………………..momo
+ sheep
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Post Post #304 (isolation #13) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:08 am

Post by havingfitz »

Efforting to post some today. In middle of a blizzard and may lose power...and/or be preoccupied with blizzard type stuff.
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Post Post #312 (isolation #14) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:39 am

Post by havingfitz »

To Math...

wrt to my suspicions towards Impede.

I read the game...took some notes (posted) and looked at the compuetr and thought to myself when I was done....who do I not feel good about. Jay and Impede were at the bottom of the list. So looking over Impede's ISO for another may come out a bit conf biasy but here I go.

- I didn't care for his entrance...seemed fake.
- And what felt like a serious vote on Una for reason I did not feel warranted (i.e. forcing a vote)
- Words of wisdom to Jay..
- I like his post and
- Felt his listing my as a top scum read was contrived given I had only post once in the last "2-3 pages" and that was to unvote and note v/LA. Feel accusation later on of doing nothing is not warranted (given the amount of posting I've done). THough others doing nothing (i.e. lack of content) are just null. Not a top two scum read.
- don't say anything. They look full of content but they are all three flip flopping. smh... Read them and see.

Some buttering up Math? -

- ...ironic.

- ...not a fan this post. Giving Red crap for his case on momo seems ironic giving what I assume is your case on Una
In post 261, Impede wrote:Giving him an opportunity to provide a real scumread that has nothing to do with the "double voting" crap.
...what was you case on Una again (at the point you made it)?

- ...Jay assist.

- ..sinking ship bus? Jay really town? idk
In post 288, Impede wrote:Una, what's your take on Jay? You really think he's just lynchbait?
Is Una still a top suspect for you? What was your case on Jay aside from

There you go Math.

Closer look at Impede doesn't take him off my scumreads.
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Post Post #313 (isolation #15) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:41 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 308, Creature wrote:They look more like VIs and easy mislynches for me.
And ironically they are both voting you.
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Post Post #542 (isolation #16) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:02 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 345, Almost50 wrote:You know what? I've just sneezed AND coughed. I bet "now you could see it being Town catching a cold", but it would still comes off as scummy sneezing/coughing to you. Right? Right!
lol...a lot of his posts seem to play both sides of the fence. Could be this...but could be that? Maybe...maybe not....kind of sorta but not really.

Can we lynch Jay? Would consider Impede. Prefer Jay though.
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Post Post #543 (isolation #17) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:07 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 376, momo wrote:if Jay does flip scum, I am a likely NK so if jay flips scum, doctor/jailkeeper/whatever protective or bus driving role there is on me
:lol: :lol: :lol: :roll:
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Post Post #544 (isolation #18) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:09 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 378, Mathdino wrote:@fitz: I noticed you left sheep off your reads. Reads?
In post 249, havingfitz wrote:
In post 247, havingfitz wrote:Townleans – Math, Una, Kop, …………………………..momo
+ sheep
Town
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Post Post #545 (isolation #19) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:29 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 395, JaydragonKing wrote:Was it Fitz who decided to ship us together as a scum team?
No.
In post 463, Mathdino wrote:Town: Jay
:facepalm: :( Why? smh...
In post 468, sheepsaysmeep wrote:jay claimed
? Where?

Note on above quotes...I see it know. :igmeou: UNVOTE:
In post 502, Almost50 wrote:Fitz posp to say Townie things then disappears like a sea lion popping up to take a breath before they dive back in the big blue ocean.
Amusing analogy and accurate in all of my games.


VOTE: Impede
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Post Post #882 (isolation #20) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:24 am

Post by havingfitz »

Prodded. Should have v/la'd for the weekend. Might be tomorrow before I get caught up/post.
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Post Post #1077 (isolation #21) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:22 am

Post by havingfitz »

I agree with Math that Impede is likely town. Not so much for the competing wagon to Creature but more so for the L-2 vote he put on Creature and stayed committed to. IMO a bus is either going to be early with jumps on and off a few times (ex. momo) to hope for other alternatives or a late hop on for credit (ex. RedFlavor).

I like Srceenplay. I don't care for him in this game. He feels different.

Would a policy lynch for pagetops be frowned on? Because sheep is annoying with the useless posting. Not the haha jokey joke kind of annoying...the seriously annoying as fcuk kind of annoying.

I agree Jay did well drawing a kill. If he hadn't fakeclaimed he would have been a mislynch so we can thank him for getting Creature. He could be a Vig kill if there is a Vig in the game. Though if he was a Vig shot Jay's lie wasted the Vig's shot.

I don't recall anything changing my mind on Kop. Still have him as town. Would need a good case put in front of me to change that read I think. Still tr'ing Math. Hawk seems town. If Impede is scum bravo for the quality bus...I tr him for his Creature participation.

I think I was tr'ing Una...might need to relook him over.

My lynch pool is Srceenplay, RedFlavor and maybe momo (need closer look). In that order.

VOTE: Srceenplay
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Post Post #1081 (isolation #22) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:23 am

Post by havingfitz »

@Srceenplay...you just feel off to me. You haven't been lurking or anything...I just find your posting style to be different than my recollection of other games we've shared. Less effort? More terse? I don't get the Math push....I need to look those reasons over again.

My mafiascum priorities the next day or so are somewhere else. I'll refresh my thoughts on this game nlt this weekend. I want to look my other lynch pool players over more closely as well.


@Una...you mention A50 was perhaps targeted because someone thought he was a hider. Wouldn't they have targeted who A50 was supposed to hide behind if they wanted him out and get a twofer at the same time? If A50 actually WAS (i.e. had been) the hider, targeting him would have got his shooter/s nowhere.
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Post Post #1204 (isolation #23) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:15 am

Post by havingfitz »

Catching up this morning.
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Post Post #1206 (isolation #24) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:34 am

Post by havingfitz »

Catching up from my post 1081.

...my weekends are usually little to no posting by me for family reasons but
I'm flying solo the next two weekends. So depending on what "more fun to do then mafia" things I can commit to...I should be able to carve out some time to do mafia stuff.

...why do you ask is people think BOTH mafia are in the three players you are
suggesting a townbloc with? (i.e. Una, Hawk, fitz) Why BOTH? Why not one? Is it BOTH or none for some reason? Also...why am I clear again?

...I think Math is town but I don't think he is conftown by any means. I
assume Math is as active both as scum and town.
tones it down. ok.

I like Impede's .

...why are we trying to figure out the set up exactly? Isn't the more information scum has to work with wrt what town has and who in town might have it a bad thing? I'm usually ok with the one off claim when a guilty happens or to avoid a
mislynch...but this seems early. Especially when scum might be on the ropes a bit already. Why help them any? And ,
,
,
,
, ,
, ,
...etc...etc...etc...

...are you asking for our potential hider to claim?

Math doing math. Moderately interesting but for what?

...I think Math was still talking probabilities. Not saying there IS an SK. Just saying what conditions would need to be for one to exist.

The town tell discussion between Impede and Srceen is zzzzzzz

...exaaactly.

@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.

...there could be a vig who doesn't want to claim.

has him cementing his town status for me. When I am town and
people are likeminded/in my head...I town read them.

...what is the benefit to a vig claiming? If there is a vig and they claim...then what? They die tonight? How is that a good thing?

...why as a vig would you have not shot the player who was claiming your role
to save his ass? Wouldn't that have been a preferred scum strategy to try and out a vig as a consolation to being lynched?

OK...caught up. I think my reads are still close to what they were a few days ago.

I do not like all the setup stuff Math is doing. I would be much more likely to participate if I knew the benefit to town. I assume it's to try and back mafia or an
SK into a corner? But does claiming not seem incredibly useful for scum? ???????????

smh....

Current reads:
Town - Impede, Hawk, momo
Town lean - Math and Kop...and I think Anonymous based on VCA review. Una
Scum suspects - Srceen and sheep.

Oh...and
I am not the vig
.
But if I was I wouldn't tell you.
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #25) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:37 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1207, sheepsaysmeep wrote:vig should definitely claim if they exist
Ok. Why?
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Post Post #1213 (isolation #26) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:30 am

Post by havingfitz »

I am not a vig.
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Post Post #1228 (isolation #27) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:27 am

Post by havingfitz »

@Hawk...regardless of whether we are dealing with one or two remaining mafia I still think chances are they were off the Creature lynch. Everyone alive who was voting Creature was pretty committed based on votes alone. Red's hammer could have been construed as town cred
bussing but looking further back...Red was on Creature for the bulk of D1 and including two stints at L-1. That's pretty committed...ESPECIALLY if there are just two mafia in the game.

That's why I changed my read on Red. Impede and you pretty much for similar reasons. Math and momo were less committed but I still lean town on them as well.

As for a potential SK...I suck at hunting SK's so I usually just keep going after scummy people until my game is over. Or hope mafia do it for me. An SK in the game could very well be on the Creature lynch. I know there is still mafia in the game though so that's where my focus is.
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Post Post #1253 (isolation #28) » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:53 pm

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1252, Mathdino wrote:fitz just to back me up on this
Sure
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Post Post #1260 (isolation #29) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:59 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1258, Kop wrote:@Fitz, Red may have been on and off the Creature wagon, but that doesn't really spell anything. He could have easily been on and off believing that being on and off would make people doubt him. I'd have to double check the time stamps to when he jumped on and off, because I possibly think he may have joined the Creature wagon, then jumped off when something else came up but then jumped back on when he realised that his buddy was the inevitable lynch and hammered early to shut it down.
Kop...Red was not hopping on and off Creature. That was my point. There was commitment on Red's part to get Creature lynched. He did come off briefly to vote Una but he was on Creature from post 297 until 852. That is a shit load of opportunities to focus elsewhere. Jay was playing suspect as hell and Red stayed off that wagon. I didn't like Impede D1 and that wagon got up to L-2 with no Red vote on it. If Red was Creature's partner he had plenty of chances to make a legit move away from the Creature wagon. Especially when a large portion of the time Red was on it...it was at L-1 or L-2.

And if we are to believe there is no vig in the game as everyone has led Math to believe...then that means we have an SK and only ONE scum left. Which makes Red's presence (and everyone else for that matter) on Creature's wagon even less likely to be his scum partner. They could still be anti-town (SK) of course...but first things first IMO (i.e. get scum).

Also...
In post 1206, havingfitz wrote:@Kop...why as a vig would you have not shot the player who was claiming your role to save his ass? Wouldn't that have been a preferred scum strategy to try and out a vig as a consolation to being lynched?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
To those not voting (Anon, Hawk, sheep)...why aren't you voting?
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Post Post #1264 (isolation #30) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:41 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1133, Mathdino wrote:Chance of 5 Ts: 6/32 = 19%
In post 1165, Mathdino wrote:2. I no one claims any of the roles I listed, we are in TTTTT almost definitely, which is fantastic.
In post 1031, yessiree wrote:
Creature has been lynched.

Creature was a
Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver.
TTTTT = Mafia Goon,
Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
, Serial Killer
In post 1261, Mathdino wrote:
In post 1260, havingfitz wrote:And if we are to believe there is no vig in the game as everyone has led Math to believe...then that means we have an SK and only ONE scum left
Imagine being this wrong
Go read the setup again Fitz
Yes....imagine.
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Post Post #1266 (isolation #31) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:44 am

Post by havingfitz »

@Kop...ok. I can't see being a vig and not targeting someone claiming my role. Unless I think there is a chance there are two vigs...which I'm sure the math would prove was pretty unlikely.
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Post Post #1267 (isolation #32) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:46 am

Post by havingfitz »

@momo...do you think Anon is mafia (please see my post on the subject to Kop) or SK?
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Post Post #1268 (isolation #33) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:46 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1262, AnonymousGhost wrote:@fitz

I'd like my questions to get answered in and then do some follow up before I cast my vote.
Fair. Thanks.
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #34) » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:59 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1244, AnonymousGhost wrote:
@Una
- Without looking at D2 content, what happened to your A50 + momo case?

@Kop
- What's up w/ 322? You explained Jay, but left out Red.
@momo
- Do you really believe what you said in 385?
Ninja'd.

Did Kop answer your question?
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Post Post #1406 (isolation #35) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:21 pm

Post by havingfitz »

Your ISO sucks Srceen. I do not think you are town this game.

No case on Math that I can see. You were meh on momo but decided he was a better vote. And now you're sheeping A50 on Una?

smh.....still good with my Srceen vote. More votes on that wagon would be nice.
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Post Post #1407 (isolation #36) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:23 pm

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1325, sheepsaysmeep wrote:*fitz's "townslip" can be faked
What "townslip" are you referring to?
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Post Post #1410 (isolation #37) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:29 pm

Post by havingfitz »

I'm curious.

I don't think Ghost or Kop are mafia. sheep could be if Srceen isn't.

Question...if we are in the 1 mafia 1 SK remaining configuration...that means we probably have 1 town PR still out there. How does helping scum narrow down what the final town pr might be (or who it might be) help town?
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Post Post #1412 (isolation #38) » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:33 pm

Post by havingfitz »

Fair point.

No.
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Post Post #1453 (isolation #39) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:57 am

Post by havingfitz »

@Kop
In post 1283, havingfitz wrote:
In post 1244, AnonymousGhost wrote:
@Una
- Without looking at D2 content, what happened to your A50 + momo case?

@Kop
- What's up w/ 322? You explained Jay, but left out Red.
@momo
- Do you really believe what you said in 385?
Ninja'd.

Did Kop answer your question?
In post 1284, AnonymousGhost wrote:@fitz

No.
In post 1449, Kop wrote:What question did you ask me that I've failed to see?
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Post Post #1541 (isolation #40) » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:13 pm

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1506, Mathdino wrote:Recent revelations unfortunately leave fitz out of the townbloc.
Can you elaborate on this comment?
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Post Post #1561 (isolation #41) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:07 am

Post by havingfitz »

Rereading from before the weekend.

why is Una a town read for you in this reads list? (Hawk asks same question in 1243).

The last line of Math's caught my attention for some reason. "Between SK and mafia, do you really think momo/I will live to endgame anyway?" At the moment I'm of the opinion neither of them is scum so I doubt it turns out to be anything...but I wanted to mention it in case it turns out they are the last mafia and the SK (based on no vig claims).

Still not sure what sheep is referring to.

when you say "He's been swearing up and down past few pages that 1T is impossible." who are you referring to? If me...I do not think this comment is accurate.

where am I "trying to 'prove' there's only 1 mafia left?" If we are assuming there is no vig based on the claims you requested of everyone...the only option that exists in the game is TTTTT, which includes an SK. I guess there is a very slim chance of 1T, which would be bad, but I'm discounting it because 1) odds are so low and 2) because that would mean a shit load of town prs are still in the game and I'm sure someone would have claimed...or provided a result...or something to indicate there was more than 1 town pr remaining in the game. I started to make a post on this last Friday but then when I was about to post it it just felt mostly redundant to what Math was already saying and I passed. But for those who are wondering where my mind was at last week wrt the remaining roles...here is the post (spoilered) I was going to post last friday:

------------------------------------------
Spoiler: My crack at math
Here are the scum team options (with those ruled out by tracker and bus driver flips):

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver


TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer


TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer


TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT


We can all probably agree that
there is no way we got 0Ts.
I think the odds are less than 1% (.78).
I think we can all probably agree
it's pretty doubtful we got just 1 T.
Those odds are less than 6% (5.46).

Chances of 2Ts and 5Ts are the same (I think)...16.4%.

Not sure why Math was focused on T and TTTTT and completely (iirc) skipped TT which had twice as much chance of happening as 1 T. (In one of his most recent posts he states this is because a Vig has not claimed....fair enough if we think a vig WOULD claim).

So IMO the most realistic odds are we got 2Ts or 5Ts.


For 5Ts:

FACT: Mafia knows if all they have left is a goon...there is 100% an SK in the game and one more town PR (probably not a vig given only 2 nks on N1).

If town knew this was the set up...how would that help? We'd would still be looking for two anti-town players. With the added benefit that the two anti-town players were also looking for each other.



For the equally likely 2Ts:

FACT: Mafia has a JOAT and they know there is another killing entity (vig or SK). For mafia...what do they care? There is still another killing role in the game they need to get rid of. No matter it vig or SK.

However! For town...if the cost of knowing this set up was revealing who the vig was...how would that matter? Town could choose NOT to out its vig and have the vig face a certain NK OR town could keep the Vig a secret and go on its merry way looking for 2 anti-town roles (in this case the two remaining mafia).

So is the extra knowledge of what the set up might be worth potentially having a vig killed?

A vig claim would be immeasurably helpful to scum who would then be rid of a serious threat to their existence.

In summary...if there is in fact a vig...I'm glad they did not claim. All the while...nothing has changed in my objective of finding 2 more anti-town players (as I really hope and doubt the random letter generator just spit out 1 T...the the extra PRs would be nice).


Disclaimer...if my math is wrong...fock. But at least I'm not asking for any claims and I'm just debating the merits of discussions already had :)

Bonus summary
I still think IF town has a vig...that it would be idiotic of them to claim just to help establish there are two mafia left and oh by the way...the vig probably gets killed tonight. Especially when town should be under the assumption there are two anti-town entities left no matter what. That's just how I am wired. Disagree if you must. As ridiculous as you might think I am being for believing a vig shouldn't claim...I find you ridiculous for suggesting it. The veracity of a claim can be sorted if it happens and leaves open the possibility they stay alive in the meantime.

And since the odds of TT OR TTTTT occurring are so close to each other...I don't want to just assume we are in a TTTTT situation and dealing with a goon and an SK. If we get flips from mafia JOAT OR from two more town PRs we'll know definitively.
------------------------------------------

I'm not sure where people are getting townslips OR scumflips from but IMO there are no issues with my understanding of the game set up. The one thing I will say I am not sure of is all the different variables/possibilities for what the remaining town pr/s might be are. As Math has worked tirelessy to try and .

Back to my weekend reread/catch up...

how are you coming to the conclusion that Assembler's post 93 is from town or SK? Because mafia!Assembler would not so obviously town read a partner?
....If the answer is yes...I disagree. And on that possibility...Creature did seem hands off the Assembler role fwiw (Ex. where Creature questions Math's vote on Assembler and where he rates Srceen "town I guess.").
....If not that...why?

why are you ruling Una out as a potential SK?

how am I overanalyzing the Creature lynch? I have three D2 posts (prior to this one) where I say I think mafia was not on Creature's wagon. Three posts. Same assessment in each. No rocket science involved. Where is the overanalyzing? A bit redundant perhaps as I was addressing different players with each post...but Creature was in fact the D1 lynch and his flip does warrant consideration.

I like Impede's How does that make him not an option as sk Math? I also like Impede's post 1540 pointing out Una Creature comments.

I did not assume throughout the day (today) that there was 1 scum remaining. Up to the point we heard back from all the vig claims (which I still dislike) I was open to there being one or two mafia still in the game. I've given my reasons for thinking 0 and 1 T were never really strong options. TT and TTTTT however were both equal possibilities for me most of today (prior to accepting the vig claims). I don't know how you are getting town or scum reads on me based on your perceived view of my set up opinions but at least you should be working off my correct opinion. Regardless of what the does to your read on me.

wrt Anon's Day Two comment that I agree with Math's case Impede is likely town...that is incorrect. I am in agreement Impede is likely town...but not for "Math's case" which was competing wagons. Mine was VCA based and did not take competing wagons into consideration.

What do you mean if only I wouldn't have hid behind jay?

My current reads:

As I mentioned before...(and on the assumption 1 mafia left)...I do not think there is mafia on the Creature lynch.

In order...
Not Mafia - Gamma, Hawk, Impede, momo, Math
Mafia candidates - sheep, Una, Srceen/Kop

I have no idea at this point who the SK is (for many reasons mentioned in Impede's My hope would be that SK was off the Creature lynch as well and if we miss mafia...we get lucky and hit SK.

I'll hypo hide behind Kop
.

I'll vote either sheep or Una. Not clearing Srceen but the sheep Una suspicions are stronger.

sheep's closer to lynch so I'll VOTE: UnaBombaH.
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Post Post #1569 (isolation #42) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:15 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1568, Impede wrote:
In post 1567, Hawk wrote:Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible.
Unless I’m dumb, this is false. This is the reason that 7T is impossible.
Yes. 6T too.
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Post Post #1573 (isolation #43) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:33 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1571, Mathdino wrote:1- Does fitz know that I think incorrect/bad math and setup spec is a towntell for me?

2-
@fitz:
Your math is wrong in more than a few ways, but I don't really care enough to refute it unless you really want me to. Basically I already went over that a while ago.
But none of that matters now because we've pretty much narrowed down the setup.
1 -
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:I don't know how you are getting town or scum reads on me based on your perceived view of my set up opinions but at least you should be working off my correct opinion. Regardless of what the does to your read on me.
2-
In post 1561, havingfitz wrote:I started to make a post on this last Friday but then when I was about to post it it just felt mostly redundant to what Math was already saying and I passed. But for those who are wondering where my mind was at last week wrt the remaining roles...here is the post (spoilered) I was going to post last friday:
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Post Post #1575 (isolation #44) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:38 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1572, Impede wrote:
In post 1567, Hawk wrote:Also fitz remember a50 is a dead tracker so 0t is impossible. Meaning vigi claim would firmly cement us into 2t I think. while no Vigi claim puts us into 1t or 5t because there were 2 NK.
This is contingent on no JK. If there’s a JK, there’s an offchance that one of the kills got roleblocked and we could have Vig and SK.
I would assume it's a very slim offchance.

On the chance a jk could be nk'd I'd hope if a jk did block someone that they'd let us know (I think Math alluded to this a few pages back).
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Post Post #1609 (isolation #45) » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:25 am

Post by havingfitz »

sheep is L-2.

@ mod...Kop unvoted in post 1460.


Oops. Fixed
Last edited by yessiree on Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1696 (isolation #46) » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:15 pm

Post by havingfitz »

AFK all evening for RL.

Will catch up on this day in the morning.
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Post Post #1727 (isolation #47) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:03 am

Post by havingfitz »

I see that I am L-2 which is annoying as I am not the SK.

Finding SKs is not something I feel confident in. I think I may have found one before but I'm not 100% sure. I need to look and if I did...see what suspicions the sk would have pinged in me.

@Math...short of some PR result how is anyone in this game confirmed town? You seem to be quite happy dishing out town crowns. (Impede, Srceen, Kop, Una....)

you have an SK-hunting guide? Do tell? Does it help you not appear like an SK?

Your are interesting:

1 - Avoiding lynchbait....like I did with Kop and momo?
2 - It doesn't benefit Kop to shoot A50. Who did it benefit then? Did it benefit me? I think not.
3 - More lynchbait avoidance towncred (see 1).
4 - Lone wolfing? Not shooting who you think is scum? I'm not sure what your SK guide says but my view is the SK would want to eliminate scum to avoid an eventual kingmaker situation. Also...didn't you call the RedFlavor slot "too conftown (and kinda PR-esque)"? Why would the fact Kop voted Anon preclude him from wanting to get rid of "too conftown (and kinda PR-esque)"? And I am not making a case on Kop...I'm debunking your logic on this point.
5/6 - He cares a lot? That's laughbale. I care. So there.
7 - He hardly mentions SK. That's an anti-SK tell? So an SK who is trying to not be uncovered would mention his role a lot? smh...agree to disagree I guess.

tl:dr; your reasons for giving out town cred are weak. I look forward to seeing if your reasons for sk reading me are any better (they won't be).

I am not a vig and I doubt we are in 2T given no vig has claimed.

what comments wrt Impede (or anyone else for that matter) reveal their advantage (if an SK) to not shoot A50?

so we're down to me on POE after all the town buttons you've been passing out? Wrong.

wtf is an anti-SK tell? Most of your Kop "anti-sk" tells were shit. Are you sk reading me because of an absence of your "anti-sk tells" as opposed to things I've done that make you think I am an SK? This logic is bassackwards. Was the don't lynch lynchbait an anti-sk tell? Your A50 NKA analysis? Is WIFOM a good sk tell?

So Math determines the SK is in two of my stronger town (at least not mafia) reads (Impede and Hawk) and me...who I know is town. Brilliant.

why do you keep bringing up a hider? What value is there in the comment "The Sk didn't actually consider that Ghost could've actually been the hider?" Is there a hider? Any hider chat in absence of a hider flip or claim beyond hypo claiming is fluff.



so you would kill A50 if you were SK and A50 was killed. No SK would ever admit that. Guess you're clear. /sarcasm

You realize I mentioned SK quite a lot in my set up exchanges with Math? You realize there was potentially an SK in this game that warranted the occasional mention? How is discussing a potential part of this game a negative. I would think not mentioning SK at all (or very little) would warrant equal suspicion. smh.

I've voted peopel I suspected and called people I don't suspect town reads. Not sure where any of that is a negative.
Especially in the world some live in that an SK should not target mafia? Which I have most definitely tried to do.
Not ruling out TT when it wasn't ruled out? wtf?
Very lurky? So we're on a lynch all lurkers track too? My game activity is the same in all my games all of the time. I tend to post a few times a day and rarely on weekends and so when I do post...it's oftena long catch up. I do not push cases hard when I am not extremely confident someone is guilty or has done something I find especially scummy. I do my thing and people are free to join me or not. My cases on suspects are more detailed and accurate (and pushed by me) the further into a game I get. I believe anyone in here who has a few games experience with me would echo that. I don't lurk...I just don't post as much as most players.

So now Impede AND Math are questioning their own continued existence in this game either from lack of being NK'd or lynched. I hate when people wifom up the hell out of their continued existence either for self-percieved scumminess or over inflated ego.

. Projecting I'll claim VT in a game that most likely has 5 VTs (out of 7 players...i.e. 70+%) left in the game is pure genius. /sarcasm

Stopping here for the moment due to other current commitments and I feel I am just defending myself against two people who have no good reason to be suspecting me in the first place.

Back later today if day is still open.
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Post Post #1736 (isolation #48) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:53 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1731, Impede wrote:Also, I hate Fitz's entire self-defense post.
I don't know if you are sk or not. Since this day began I have not had the chance to look at people still alive to see who I think may or may not be the SK. And now I've used SK twice (THREE TIMES...there is is again) in this sentence thus cementing my status as he who speaketh the term that shall not be spoken.

But seriously...do you hate the points I brought up or the fact I felt the need to defend myself against two shit ~cases(?) being brought against me? At least you can admit you are being confbiasy. That's just slightly better than admitting you are the sk (4!4!4!)

I'm on my phone atm and preoccupied. When I get home tonight and off the phone I will start looking players over for our last anti town role (aka you know what). And I'll see if I left any points worth commenting on out from where I left off on my earlier uber defensive post.

One thing I will be curious of is if anyone has made, or makes, any actually solid town cases or SK!!!!cases against anyone to possibly narrow down my pool of lynch options.

As of this post I have no one definitively cleared or convicted.

Also...just for discussion...IF the remaining PR has done anything that could potentially clear others is it time to make their presence known?

Having a pool of 3 or 4 to work with would be nicer than 6.


P.edit everything since Impede's post.
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Post Post #1776 (isolation #49) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:32 am

Post by havingfitz »

OK...so people (Math, Impede....others?) don't know how to find SKs so they are using POE obtained by eliminating players they don't know how to clear from consideration to focus on players they don't know how to implicate.

= easy mislynch with
12+ days of deadline left
.

Brilliant.

eeny meeny miny VOTE: Impede

I would also vote Math and Kop. Why? Because I am not the SK = better odds they are.
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Post Post #1780 (isolation #50) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:27 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1777, Mathdino wrote:longer deadlines are anti-town
Quicklynches are are anti-town. Especially those ending in a mislynch.
In post 1777, Mathdino wrote: i despise the "we have a long deadline" argument, it's great AtE for newbies
Whatever suits your objectives. Being on the recieving end of a quicklynch evokes a different opinion. More time = more consideration = more information to work with = good for town.
In post 1777, Mathdino wrote:you know exactly why i'm trying to shorten the day
If you are the SK I absolutely do know. If you are town...see previous points.
In post 1777, Mathdino wrote: what are you hoping to discuss with those 12 days
Who the sk is. I do not know what everyone else is doing...I think Hawk and Una are genuinely trying to figure shit out. I don't know what the fcuk Kop is doing. Or Srceen. And you and Impede seem to be just trying to whittle down the player pool randomly. I haven't had a chance to look at the other 6 players still alive. That's what I would be doing with the remaining time in this day.
In post 1777, Mathdino wrote: do you have towncases on people other than me, impede, and kop, because if so now would be the time to share
No. I've been a bit busy trying to prevent my mislynch.
In post 1777, Mathdino wrote:also what do you think is my or impede's lynch order to victory
How the fcuk would I know? It's not something I have even considered. For anyone.
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Post Post #1782 (isolation #51) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:33 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1773, Kop wrote:Right now, I don't know who to lynch. I pretty much suck at looking for SK tells. But
If I was to guess
who I believe isn't town, it would be Fitz or Screen.
Can't argue against a guess. smh....awesome.
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #52) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:52 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1781, Mathdino wrote: if i were on the receiving end of the most likely lynch today i would just write all the cases i have.
I don't have ANY cases at the minute. This day just opened and I've been in defense mode with what time I have had to spend in here. L-2 and L-1 changes one's posting priorities a bit.
In post 1781, Mathdino wrote: more information is anti-town because
it makes the PR more obvious to SK
. if we keep PR alive we can win by PoE
This is fcuking laughable coming from you considering that you have spent most of this game asking people to claim and figure out what PRs (or suggesting what PRs) there are in the game. Classic.
In post 1781, Mathdino wrote: but i wouldn't be spending all of my time fixating on my own lynch, town can afford 2 of those
You may be prone to sit back and let your lol baseless lynch happen when you are town. I am not. Fcuk off.
In post 1781, Mathdino wrote: push your scumreads and defend your townreads
I will when I have the chance to determine what they are. Hint...you Impede and Kop are at the bottom atm.
In post 1781, Mathdino wrote: you know i'm pushing you primarily on PoE, there's like nothing to defend against, so don't worry about it
Perfect...a case I can not defend against. So why am I not town? You lament not being able to find an SK but for some reason you have eliminated others from consideration...and implicated me...not for any reasons...but because you DIDN'T find reasons with some others.

:facepalm:

Here's the deal...I might be able to do a few ISO's on people today to see if I can clear them from consideration or not...but Monday is more realistic.

And L-1 hanging over my head isn't going to make a difference in my limited availability.
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Post Post #1785 (isolation #53) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:59 am

Post by havingfitz »

In post 1783, Mathdino wrote:
In post 1776, havingfitz wrote:I would also vote Math and Kop. Why? Because I am not the SK = better odds they are.
also this is dangerously presumptuous

SK can let town tear itself apart all it wants, they don't NEED to be on the wagon
How fcuking hypocritical can you get? You don't have shit for suspecting me other than baseless POE (as you have already stated your inability to SK hunt)...so you have trouble finding SKs...yet you are clearing people from being SK. So people you haven't cleared using your inabilities to clear must be the SK! lollogic.

My comment is not presumptuous...it's absolutely correct. I am not the SK so odds are better that you or Kop or anyone for that matter is.

How is you determination I am the SK any less presumptuous?

You're wasting my time. Is that presumptuous?
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Post Post #1854 (isolation #54) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:15 am

Post by havingfitz »

Fcuk...AFK for the weekend as is normal for me and lazy town lynch me. fffff

I think the fact it became 1 vs 6 played a lot in to town not being concerned about the possibility of a mislynch as long as it wasn't them.

I definitely did not want to hit the last scum. I thought the Gamma slot was town...I felt the town thought the Gamma slot was town...and I figured why allow an unknown into the game when the known players aren't presenting much of a threat.

Am curious why scum killed momo...who is typically lurker/VI/lynchbait over other players who might evolve into more of a threat or be harder to lynch. smh....

Despite not being a big fan of being the SK I enjoyed this game. Despite the "too many mistakes" I made.

On that note, Math...you're a weird mix of "I somewhat enjoy playing with you" and "you're too full of yourself + condescendingly fcuk off annoying."

Not sure how only 2 mafia and an sk is scum sided but...good game town. Well deserved win.

Thanks mod for modding!

bleh :)
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Post Post #1856 (isolation #55) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:32 am

Post by havingfitz »

Why did you target momo?

What were your other potential targets?
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Post Post #1858 (isolation #56) » Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:38 am

Post by havingfitz »

That makes sense on pocketed Math. momo meh lol
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