Open 705: Polygamist - Game Over


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Post Post #6 (isolation #0) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:14 pm

Post by Mathdino »

sup

I don't have access to my PT yet so I hope my lover hasn't planned out some elaborate reaction test without me :(

Hey lover.

I don't know about claiming lovers yet. I'm gonna check game history and see what They Who Came Before Us thought on the matter.
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Post Post #7 (isolation #1) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:27 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Yeah okay so

NO ONE CLAIM YOUR LOVERS YET

The wiki suggests that claiming early is bad but I'm still working through the literature on the subject

Another interesting thing is that lynching completely randomly actually benefits town. The problem is that random lynches don't happen because scum won't let it. I would actually be done with creating a townbloc that follows a dice tag in the thread. Would give us a 60% chance.

ANOTHER interesting thing is that scum can bus the fuck out of each other without actually lynching to look great in vote analysis. And that's probably something scum have already discussed so I'm comfortable sharing it here. So watch out for shitty VCA.

Not voting because it'll be obvious that whomever I vote isn't my lover.
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Post Post #10 (isolation #2) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:45 pm

Post by Mathdino »

The irreversibility of the massclaim made me want to research it more beforehand.

A really good argument in the last Polygamist game (town win) went along the same lines. Claiming lovers means scum can't suddenly decide later on in the day who their "lovers" will be and also makes their defences public.

That said, it would be foolish at this point for scum to not decide beforehand what their "lover" pairs will be so they can act it out come daystart.

So I'm still working out how it actively helps us.

PS. Ahahahaha I just got access to my lover's PT and it was just them saying "hello". Good shit. Thanks for flaking, pisskop.
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Post Post #11 (isolation #3) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:47 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 8, DiamondSentinel wrote:1. Let's not play to win, so to speak. Let's just play to play a battle of wits. So, no random lynching.
Counterproposal. Through the day, we'll probably as a town come together on a townread of someone.

That person will then dice roll 2 lynches that don't include themselves or their lover.

In effect, we'll be playing kingmaker.

If we're right about the king we elect being town, we then have an exactly 70% chance of winning by sheeping them.
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Post Post #12 (isolation #4) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:49 pm

Post by Mathdino »

And since someone's going to ask, we have a 40% chance of winning if the person we elect is scum.
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Post Post #17 (isolation #5) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:42 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 13, Sky_Paladin wrote:Hello all o/
My quick scan sees dice rolling as a tactic suggested. I appreciate the idea behind it but how to know that mafia aren’t loading the dice?
Also I kind of feel that using dice to decide goes against the spirit of the game.
I discussed claiming with my lover and we didn’t know if that was a good idea or not so I guess we will go with the flow.
Original Roll String: 1d12
1 12-Sided Dice: (1) = 1
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Post Post #18 (isolation #6) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:43 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Doesn't matter how many times I preview, I literally can't load the dice. The above would correspond to lynching RedFlavor.

I propose electing someone we think is town to roll the dice and vote for someone other than them and their lover. So yes it would involve them loading the dice but they wouldn't be able to control the dice. No one would.
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Post Post #21 (isolation #7) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:15 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Yeah that's fair. I guess me claiming doesn't really benefit me or town, but scum claiming does, so it's best to set a precedent.

Yo I'm lovers with Amrororawrachurrochora. Your turn?

Also why not dice lynch?
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Post Post #24 (isolation #8) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:10 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I wonder if we'd have a higher chance of winning this game by playing kingmaker then, where the king we make straight up chooses the lynch straight up.

We model open games by assuming random lynch; the flaw being that lynches aren't random, and in a game with such a high percentage of scum, lynching scum is unlikely.

I wonder if we'd have better odds trying to townhunt and sheep.

Will come up with a model and get back to this.
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Post Post #27 (isolation #9) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:58 pm

Post by Mathdino »

^i unironically believe this shit at face value and will in return also never lynch toranaga/sheep

Great progress on the scumhunting front, folks.

I on the other hand have made no progress in modeling kingmaking polygamist vs normal lynch polygamist. See you next year.
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Post Post #28 (isolation #10) » Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

An argument that jzhenson and my slot are both town:

Scum loves to whine to the mod when one of their members straight up doesn't show up.

These fuckers didn't post a single thing in their PTs (I assume, correct me if I'm wrong Tora) for 3 fucking days and the mod still started the game.

Locktown.

VOTE: Lalendra

as good a PoE vote as any
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Post Post #42 (isolation #11) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:13 am

Post by Mathdino »

OK well 4 of us already claimed so let's get a move on
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Post Post #45 (isolation #12) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:53 am

Post by Mathdino »

VOTE: cy

Sheeping sheep. Sheep me!
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Post Post #46 (isolation #13) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:19 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 36, Sky_Paladin wrote:VOTE: DinoMath

'dice' + 'math' you can't defeat me with your mind tricks. Only money.
Is this serious?
In post 38, sheepsaysmeep wrote:i feel like with actual scumhunting instead of dice we can increase our chances of hitting scum?
You would be surprised. Most open setups, scumhunting does help, and town's actual winrate is higher than its theoretical random winrate. This setup, town's winrate is far lower than the theoretical.

That implies to me that scumhunting is mostly useless in this setup due to the high volume of scum affecting the lynches. Similar to how longer deadlines hurt town because it gives more time for scum to adapt.

Got back to thinking about the model I was talking about. The current history of this setup is done with scumhunting. It's much easier (I think) to townhunt and let that townie decide arbitrarily. If that townie's decision is COMPLETELY arbitrary, our winrate should be about 70%.

So since we seem to be in agreement that Tora/sheep are town, and given that sheep voted completely arbitrarily (on someone who hasn't even posted yet), I unironically think cy should be our lynch today. Since there's no nighttime I would even be good with a speedlynch here (long days are anti-town).

Cuz fuck playing for fun, I play to win.

i need to get more real friends
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Post Post #48 (isolation #14) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:15 am

Post by Mathdino »

Well sheep's vote is equivalent to a dice lynch so why not compromise and join the locktown wagon?
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Post Post #56 (isolation #15) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Not my fault the setup isn't great and makes dicelynching ideal xD

I see no reason to shy away from the arbitrarily lynching cytheflyguy/Lalendra strategy.

@cytheflyguy:
What did you and Lalendra talk about last night?
Same question goes to
@manrock
.
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Post Post #63 (isolation #16) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:56 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 60, manrock wrote:is anything going to happen? still tired so I'll go to bed and wake up later
Things might happen if you lay down a vote, buddy.

Vote cy, sheep the obvtownbloc.
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Post Post #67 (isolation #17) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:01 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 62, manrock wrote:Outside of that how does letting it rand actually help town? Seems more like a problem with the players actually being unable to catch scum instead of randomizing lynches making sense
I plagiarised from the wiki and checked the Math myself (along with the Math on a few scenarios).

Like I said. Most open setups are BENEFITED from non-random lynching. Strategy/scumhunting is easier when town is given multiple lynches and mafia comprises 22% or 23% of the town. Mafia can't drive mislynches over and over because that puts them in a shitty situation in LyLo.

In this setup, mafia is 33% of the town and we can literally only mislynch twice. Mafia has no need to set themselves up for a good lategame. They ONLY need to drive 2 mislynches. Given that most early lynches are on town, AND that mafia has the opportunity to influence the vote, the dice roller is likely to be better at catching scum than the 12 of us.

THAT SAID, the 8 of us who are actually town are likely to be collectively better at catching scum than the dice roller. The problem is we don't have a reliable way of filtering out the scum agenda.

That's why my counterproposal is to just pick someone we think is town and sheep them on some arbitrary wagon. This bumps up our chances considerably because it has a massive chance of filtering out the scum agenda.

So sheep sheep.
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Post Post #68 (isolation #18) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Tor/sheep and redflavor/manrock are all probably town. I thought I said that already.

You don't need to scumhunt if you can townhunt well. I know I'm way better at townhunting.

cytheflyguy/Lalendra then have a 2/3 chance of being scum. cy has done nothing to indicate townishness to me so I'm pretty comfortable parking here.

Do you have any reads beyond complaining about setup-breaking?
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Post Post #70 (isolation #19) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:10 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I don't have a read on you. Toranaga towned it all the way up with that entrance.

manrock/Red have consistent interpretations of their lover PT. Honestly I just straight up believe them.

Also I'm not dice lynching ;) ;) ;)
I'm just arbitrarily lynching someone you picked who's in neither my nor your lover PT who hasn't posted yet ;) ;) ;)
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Post Post #73 (isolation #20) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You had a townread on me in the first place? Have I actually said something alignment indicative already?

My whole thing in the open queue is:
1. Hyperposting
2. Setup-breaking

I happen to have the luck of consistently rolling town in the open games that are breakable (speaking for completed games ofc). So far there hasn't actually been any risk to myself of doing that all the time. I guess I could tell you that as scum I would just not setup-break but that would be WIFOMy as shit. I think the one time I did roll scum I pretended to try to setup-break that ultimately was useless because I PR-hunted every single PR at night and shot them before they could do shit.

Regardless, this strategy does objectively work, and I knew that when the setup showed up in the queue. It's part of why I didn't /in in the first place. I'm good if you guys don't want to dice lynch but if not that I'm going to substitute with some kind of reasonable alternative/effective substitute. Like sheeping your team.

Edit: Long deadlines/long conversations hurt town. I have EXTREMELY little confidence in my scumhunting abilities in this setup in particular. Ask me why if you're interested.
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Post Post #76 (isolation #21) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:19 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 74, sheepsaysmeep wrote:tone is ai
absolute bullshit especially for my playstyle but i can appreciate trying to early-read people based off tone
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Post Post #77 (isolation #22) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 73, Mathdino wrote:Edit: Long deadlines/long conversations hurt town. I have EXTREMELY little confidence in my scumhunting abilities in this setup in particular. Ask me why if you're interested.
I'm sad you didn't bite because I wanted to talk about this. So I'm gonna nonconsensually rant at you. sorrynotsorry

Mafia is a game of informed minority vs uninformed majority. Tone reading is bullshit except for coming up with early reads to talk about. There are 2 things that set town apart from scum:

1. Town doesn't have scumpartners. Scum does. Scum will act in some deliberate way toward their partners, be that defending, distancing, ignoring or bussing.
2. Town is only interested in lynching scum. Scum doesn't really give a shit who they lynch as long as at least one of them stays alive.

There's a setup called Friends and Enemies I played a while back with a 3-player mason team, a 3-player mafia team, and VTs. Interestingly, a bunch of people started scumreading the mason team because of point #1. That's actually kind of the point of the setup. Masons have to put up an act in order to not get shot, but doing so makes them massively scummy and creates associations. What makes the setup still good/scumhunty is that there are a bunch of VTs.

This setup consists of 4 mason teams and a 4 player mafia team that is pretending to be 2 mason teams. In this setup,what sets scum apart is:

1. Each scum "lover pair" is aware of another "lover pair" that they absolutely can't lynch. This, in theory, creates associations. Scum otherwise doesn't care who they lynch.

And that's really it. The problem is that EVERYONE has one other player that they absolutely can't lynch. This already fucks up our ability to scumhunt because now everyone has associations.

So in almost every past iteration of the game in which scum won, the scum did this by screwing up the only thing setting scum apart: they made it look like they were 100% willing to lynch each other. This breaks the major playstyle difference between town and scum. Because whether we want to be or not, EVERYONE is an informed minority, and that makes everyone act at least a little scummy (because they're going to be unwilling to lynch their lover). The last game (a town win) wasn't broken by massclaiming. It was won because scum played badly and didn't play their optimal strategy (which is looking as town as possible).

I'm not cocky enough to trust my own scumhunting ability above every past town. I have reason to believe that standard scumhunting techniques will work to our detriment this game.

The longer the day goes on, the more time scum has to distance from each other and make associations impossible.
This isn't the kind of game where we can just lynch wildly until we hit scum and then find the rest of the scum from there. We just need to be able to lynch scum without scum interfering and derailing us.

No one wants to lynch by dice, I get that. If I were mod-confirmed town to you guys, I'd pick randomly by myself and insist town lynch them. But I recognise that you have no reason to trust me.

However, I trust Tora/sheep and I think you guys should too. Being my first townread, and being that sheep arbitrarily voted, I think voting cy/Lalendra before scum has a chance of mindscrewing us is to our benefit.

I'm basically asking for a speed lynch on a rando. Yeah, it's scummy under the lens of normal mechanics, whatever. I'll even let you waste a mislynch on me if you agree to follow my strategy tomorrow (would turn our odds into a coin flip). Cuz scum's gonna come in here and try to discredit all of this by arguing I'm anti-town and therefore scum (or maybe they won't now that I've predicted it, who knows). Don't care, my argument is just as right regardless of my alignment and regardless of whether I'm dead.

Vote cy, probably scum, don't let scum persuade you into bad reads.
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Post Post #86 (isolation #23) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:09 pm

Post by Mathdino »

As predicted, AT LEAST one scum is trying to discredit me. And this is actually exactly why town winrates for this setup are far lower than random lynching. Scum has motivation and scum has numbers, and thus has some level of control over the town's conversation. I'm specifically trying to dominate the conversation with a quicklynch to counteract that. The best I can hope for is that town will listen and agree.

There are a few arguments against me that I'll respond to, although at least one of them is being made by scum so this is partially theatrics for the town, because the scum will never agree with me anyway:

SkyPaladin
: You're literally right that scumhunting is near impossible in this setup. Those hydra interactions you're talking about are fucked. In normal mafia, bussing is a viable strategy. Here, bussing is suicide. So what does scum try to do all the time? They bus when applicable and screw up associative tells. Scumhunting is just a massive fucking can of WIFOM that
scum will win because they have the numbers
. Scum can control the discussion. It's gonna get even worse tomorrow.

Lalendra
: I'm not gonna unvote your team unless sheep does, so a conversation with you is unfortunately not too useful, since I'm uninterested in scumhunting. I would be okay however if, as we were about to lynch you, you arbitrarily picked a lynch for us at the end of the day. This kinda follows my whole "sheep an arbitrary townie's lynch target" strategy.

To respond to a couple things in particular:
"He even says that if he were confirmed town he would still choose randomly, but I don't believe that's true": Then you're just wrong, and you don't know enough about how I think to know you're wrong. Feel free to leaf through my open games if you're actually interested in sorting me (I won't expect it of you, but if it eases your mind, whatever). Sun shines, grass grows, Mathdino breaks setups. The main things that stop me are in the set of {obstinate townies, scared scum, D1 going majorly off the rails in some way}.

"The "I know this is scummy but we should do it anyway" just feels like backpedaling": I think you skimmed/missed the point in some way. IN A NORMAL GAME, what I'm doing would be massively scummy, because scumhunting increases town's winrate in normal games. In this game, scumhunting literally decreases our winrate, so I'm uninterested in scumhunting. I do believe I can come up with at least one townread, and I'm basing my entire game around that. Because that's where the math leads me.

@sheepsaysmeep:
I see no reason to ever change my townread on your team. My plan if you lead us into a mislynch is to just ask you who to lynch tomorrow and follow that. This falls along the lines of "the longer the day goes on, the more time scum has to manipulate us". Changing my reads is anti-town because it's likely I'm being manipulated in some way.

@Diamond
: Hint: there's basically no way to find scum in this situation, and trying has been proven time and time again to fail.

I don't really have much more response to Diamond, but for those of you interested in actual scumhunting, notice how neither Sky_Paladin nor Diamond are sure on how to scumhunt in this situation, so they both default to discrediting my solution
which is specifically to solve the "no real way to scumhunt" problem
. So they're probably scum. Or maybe this is me confbiasing because they disagree with me. Dunno. At the very least I have no reason to townread them, so I'm sticking to sheep/Tora as my locktown team.
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Post Post #88 (isolation #24) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:30 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Meh. I don't really trust my own scumreads this game so I'm not gonna stake myself on a 1v1 with your team.

Like I said, I'm trying to townhunt, not scumhunt. So I'm sorting people into "townish or not townish" instead of "scummy or not scummy". The vibe I'm getting from your team thus far is "not town" and I don't really care to analyse much further. I'd be cool with a lynch on you guys but I'm not gonna spend time pushing it (remember, drawn out days are bad).

You are, at the very least, discrediting my idea, which is, I believe, anti-town-wincon. I do understand the "I have principles and thus will not play optimally because it's more fun that way" argument. But also keep in mind that from a scum's perspective, since my plan obviously hurts them, they have to choose between:

1. Discrediting Mathdino's idea
2. Discrediting Mathdino and calling him scum

So I'm a little on edge right now when it comes to dealing with disagreement. It wouldn't really help scum to go along with my idea.
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Post Post #90 (isolation #25) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:36 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 88, Mathdino wrote:It wouldn't really help scum to go along with my idea.
Talking to myself here, but yeah this is actually really bad :/

12 players, 4 scum who are probably gonna come up with a reason to go against the idea, then the idea can only handle 2 defections. Needs 3 teams to go along with it.

That said I'm sticking to my guns of "scumhunting is bad for town" based on the data, so if you guys decide to start scumhunting, I'm just gonna keep sheeping Tora/sheep and hope they're right. Feel free to lynch me if they vote for a team other than my own, and I for some reason decide not to sheep them. That would basically indicate me as scum, because I should have no reason to suddenly change my mind and be like "yeah wait I was okay with sheeping you on Team X, but not if you're trying to lynch Team Y" unless I was scum with Team Y.

PEdit: Lalendra/cy is one scumread (I think we lucked out on that, which is good for my brain because I don't have to go against my gut) and I guess Sky/Diamond is null-scummy. I'm lowkey townreading Kop/BigFinn being massively inactive. Partially by the "scum likes to whine about inactive partners" argument.
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Post Post #92 (isolation #26) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:41 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 91, DiamondSentinel wrote:I'm not saying your idea is wrong. That's clearly false (although considering that town loses this more often than not in practice, we can't count on theory). I'm saying that I'm not willing to play that way.

So, naturally, that means that my read on you and my dislike of your idea are disconnected.

PEdit: Also, if you don't trust your scumreads, then sheep people. The answer to "I don't trust my instincts" is not to say "so fuck everyone else's, let's random vote!"
That's fair, and I can respect that. Just understand my perspective, which is that scum IS FORCED to say something along the lines of what you just said. Doesn't mean you're scum, but it does mean I have to be suspicious of that.

And yeah that's literally my whole strategy lol. I'm personally kingmaking the Tora/sheep team and I'll follow their vote (I can only hope that their vote is as arbitrary as possible). I can provide input under traditional scumhunting but I would hope people understand that with that input is a massive disclaimer saying
"I am probably being manipulated by the high volume of scum in this game!"


My best scumhunting is during LyLo. I don't think I've ever lost a LyLo. Lot of information to deal with, lot of associations. I don't think I can win this in 2 days though.
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Post Post #96 (isolation #27) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 93, Sky_Paladin wrote:MathDino, that's a big strawman. Town can completely disagree with your idea because it's a pants idea. I'm not calling you bad or stupid for it, I'm saying it's scum to push the agenda that it's too hard to scumhunt so we should just roll a dice instead, and that's why I'm voting you.

Vote count analysis/vote analysis/holding people accountable for their votes - these are things that hold true in regular games and will certainly hold true in this game. To pretend otherwise is the scum agenda.
And I completely disagree with you on that, and if you're town, you kind of are implying I'm not good by pushing an idea you think is bad. I know that I'm only doing this from a town standpoint. I'm guessing this debate will be more applicable postgame though since you don't know that (again assuming you're town).

I would love for this to be an ordinary game. But I have to go with what the evidence suggests, which is that going through the motions of scumhunting hurts town in this setup. Incidentally, it's been shown that longer deadlines/longer days also hurts town in regular games (scum has more time to manipulate, town has more time to second guess its good early reads), but I can't really do anything about that.

On a sidenote, my latest obsession is learning economics, and I'm beginning to realise that the focus on game theory and modeling things has seriously impacted my play.
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Post Post #97 (isolation #28) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 93, Sky_Paladin wrote:Town can completely disagree with your idea because it's a pants idea.
To more specifically respond to this, I know that town CAN disagree with it. That's beside the point: I'm saying that scum MUST disagree with it. So I naturally must consider that anyone who disagrees with it could be scum.

This obviously comes from the perspective that the ideas I've been proposing are objectively more optimal for town, which is supported by the evidence and the literature and no one's really disproved me on that outside of "it's disingenuous to play that way".
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Post Post #102 (isolation #29) » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:58 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 98, Sky_Paladin wrote:A. Can you please explain why you disagree that vote count analysis, vote analysis, and holding people accountable for their vote, are worthwhile scumhunting tools in this game.

I do not mean to say that you are 'not good'. I think your idea is a poor one, in that it adversely impacts town, but it does not mean I think poorly of you. I just think that any idea that asks us to trade our experience and scumhunting tools for the random hand of fate, is more likely to come from a scum player than a town player.
I would love for this to be an ordinary game.
B. Then treat it as such. This is no different to a regular game where the setup is known and night phase is skipped.
I'm saying that scum MUST disagree with it.
C. No, they don't. Scum can agree with it all the way up until we actually roll a dice and it happens to come up with a scum name. They'll happily go along with it as long as it's a towny being lynched and we'd never known until game over. I think statistically the dice roll favors scum - the first roll is 8/12 in hitting town, and the second roll is 6/12. That's a better than 50% chance, if my napkin math is correct, of scum winning off the rolls.
Lettered your points to respond to them.

A. I reviewed the evidence. Open setups are often designed around a theoretical winrate that results from random lynching. For example, in a 2 scum vs 7 townies game, assuming mafia shoots every night, the theoretical winrate is 37.2%. Adding power roles increases that, and allowing real life towns to play the game as it's intended to be played (scumhunting) increases that further.

This open setup has a 60% theoretical winrate. Its actual winrate? 36%. That's
fucking abysmal
. And my opinion of the last game is that town only won because scum played like shit. The fact that 2/3 of the other town wins were the first couple times this setup was even played supports that hypothesis.

So either one believes that previous towns are horrible and "oh man, my scumhunting is so much better, I can do better than that", or you realise that
non-random lynching actually hurts town's winrate.
From the wiki:
At the end of Open 88 it was proposed that this setup inherently favors Town. By randomly lynching, the Town has a 60% chance of winning. However,
truly random lynches will not occur in practice because scum cannot and will not lynch themselves
; further, it was noted that scum voting each other up to L-1 would make them consistently look great under vote analysis. It was also discussed that massclaim should occur either early Day 2 or very late Day 1 to keep scum Lover claims as implausible as possible. See also White Flag Gambit.
Emphasis mine. I believe that town's low winrate from a strategy of real scumhunting is due to the fact that most towns lynch town early on due to scum manipulation, and in my experience, only come to their senses in LyLo. We can't afford to clown around going through the motions of scumhunting, being wrong, and correcting later on.
We have 2 days
.

I can understand why you might think that. Look at this from a scum-me point of view.

I, as scum, come in and read up on the setup and previous games (unless you think I didn't do this, but I'm pretty sure I've shown that I have), and see that classic scumhunting gives scum a 64% winrate. I'm in general a pretty difficult-to-early-lynch player (you can factcheck me on this one) when I play like I normally do. So the scum-me narrative requires me deciding, "fuck that 64% winrate and fuck my own ability to not get lynched, I'm gonna suggest a plan that objectively has a 60% chance of fucking my team over, a plan that's clearly unpopular and might get me lynched even trying to implement it, and I'm gonna carry that plan through the game". Doing this would literally be not playing to my wincon to the best of my abilities.

Now you could argue that this is all WIFOM and I'm only doing that for towncred. But I wasn't saying "don't lynch me". I was saying "random lynching is a better strategy for town than lynching based on scumreads".

B. This is different to a regular game, because we only have 1 mislynch available. Most games, we'd have more flips to analyse. This is essentially 2v4 Mountainous Nightless where the 2 scum hydrae are lovers. Odds are bad.

C. If scum do that, then it'll be pretty obvious that they're scum. And no, the dice roll doesn't favour scum, you're doing your math wrong.

The probability of scum winning this by random lynch is 8/12*6/10 = 2/3*3/5 = 2/5 = 40%. Thus the probability of town winning is the inverse, 60%.

I'm happy to talk math with you all day but understand that probability/game theory is literally my specialty, and I've calculated all this beforehand.
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Post Post #107 (isolation #30) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:09 am

Post by Mathdino »

smh i've failed my town at communication

Spoiler: me arguing with people (SkyPaladin and RedFlavor) about math
In post 103, Sky_Paladin wrote:Day 1 - 8/12 chance of the lynch randomly favoring scum.
Day 2 - 6/10 chance of the lynch randomly favoring scum.

Yes, I accept that if you multiply out the 'day 1 and day 2' value, it's a 40% win rate for scum.

I cannot explain using maths why this is a bad idea because my math is not strong enough.

However, on day 1, it's 75% chance of town mislynching (random miss).
On day 2, it's 60% chance of town mislynching (random miss).
I would take those odds as scum every time.

I don't really understand how a 75% chance and a 60% chance works out to a 40% chance and I am prepared to learn about this after the game.

However for the purposes of this game I am not persuaded that a random dice roll is in town's favor, and even if it was, I would still be disinclined to employ that as a strategy.
You would be wrong to take those odds. You're looking in the face of correct calculations and saying "nah that's unconvincing".

Here's an example. If you got the opportunity to play a game where if you hit a 8/12 diceroll and then a 6/10 diceroll, you won a dollar, and if you lost either, you lost a dollar, would you play?

The key is that scum has to win BOTH of those (the 75% AND the 60%) and it's unlikely they do. Looking at past games, it seems a better strategy for scum is literally just to scumhunt.
In post 105, RedFlavor wrote:It should be like this:
8/12 dice roller is town
4/12 dice roller is scum

If dr is scum(4/12) scum wins

If dr is town (8/12)
Since they wont be lynching themselves it will be
4/10 chance lynching scum at d1
6/10 (lynching town d1) x 4/8= 3/10 chance lynching scum at d2

When we add d1 and d2 it makes 7/10 and we should multiply this with 8/12 which makes it 46% of lynching scum with dice rolling

It is still lower than 50
Btw just realized day 1 is longer than 3 weeks
I understand what you're doing here. I just want to nip that idea in the bud real quick.

The dice roller cannot be tampered with.


Just because I roll the dice doesn't mean I can say "alright guys I'm rolling the dice to lynch anyone other than me, [scumpartner X], [scumpartner Y], [scumpartner Z]". If I did that, I would be super obvious scum.

Now you could (and I am) making an argument that the dice roller should be town and should randomise their target as anyone other than themselves and their own lover. I've done the odds on this already. If dice roller is town and comes up with 2 random lynches other than themselves, our winrate is 70%. If dice roller is scum and comes up with 2 random lynches other than themselves, our winrate is 30%. Since dice roller has a 25% chance of being scum, this expected probability comes out to

30%*25% + 70%*75% = 0.3*0.25 + 0.7*0.75 = 0.6 = 60%

The aforementioned 60% winrate.

Also your math doesn't even take into account the lovers mechanic, that lynching anyone also lynches their partner.
Someone else pointed out that we can basically treat this game as 6 hydrae with 2 scum hydrae. Try the math that way if it's easier for you; it's effectively equivalent.
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Post Post #109 (isolation #31) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:24 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 106, Lalendra wrote:This isn't the first time I've played with you. And no, I don't believe that as town you would be espousing this kind of strategy. Feel free to disagree, but that's my opinion.
I have a response to this that I can't use because that game is ongoing. This is a perfect example of why you shouldn't use or talk about ongoing games. Do the meta on me. Realise how my play might vary game to game depending on
A. the setup
B. my role
Again, you're literally suggesting that as scum, I would be espousing the kind of strategy that creates a 40% winrate for my team, rather than playing the game normally and winning like
the majority of my predecessors in this setup
. THAT would be idiotic. And to suggest I would do that is kind of insulting to my intelligence. The ONLY argument I would accept for why I'm doing this as scum is "oh he's telling everyone the objectively optimal town strategy just for the towncred", and even doing that would be hilariously risky. But doing this does not create an edge for scum.
In post 106, Lalendra wrote:Speaking in terms of probability, yes, scumhunting decreases our winrate. HOWEVER, I am far more comfortable with the idea of scumhunting, and coming up with meta/associative/scummy tells, than I am with picking random targets.

On that note, let me ask - if you had a scumread on someone, would you still be using this approach? i.e., would you forgo your scumread and trust the dice? Because that seems like playing against your wincon imo.
Yes. My scumreads have a long sad history of being wrong on D1 and D2. I'm a fantastic LyLo player and an okay early player (my main strength as an early player is not getting myself lynched). The dice have a better chance of being right than I do. This does not apply to other setups. I would not suggest this in other setups. But in this setup, it's correct.

Notice that I'm doing something that's effectively equivalent to picking a random target, which is saying "Hey guys, sheep/Tora are town, I'm just gonna sheep their vote". If we model their scumreads as essentially random, I get what I want, which is 2 somewhat arbitrary lynches, and you guys get what you want, which is someone who's actually theoretically scumhunting (just not me).
In post 106, Lalendra wrote:I like that you at least acknowledge the fact that you're scumreading people just for not agreeing with you, but I still think you should be a little more open-minded. Just because people don't agree with you doesn't mean they're scum.
In post 106, Lalendra wrote: Wait...but above you said that you were scumreading Sky/Diamond for disagreeing with you. Yet here, you acknowledge that people can disagree with you and still be town?
I don't know how I can be clearer on this.
- Town CAN disagree with it. Towns are generally bad.
- Scum MUST disagree with it. Scum would have to be monumentally bad to go along with this idea.
So if someone agrees with the idea, that to some extent shows they're probably town (unless everyone agrees in which case scum is just acting like they agree for the towncred). If someone disagrees with the idea, they could be either, but it makes it slightly more likely they're scum.

I don't know how I'm being inconsistent here. I was asked to come up with scumreads, and I can do that to the best of my ability, but I still don't actually trust my scumreads so fuck it.
In post 106, Lalendra wrote:
In post 106, Lalendra wrote:I'm not big on doing the math in setups because I feel that math only works in a vacuum where you don't take into account unpredictable and unquantifiable things such as people's opinions, behavior, psychology, willfully doing things that they otherwise wouldn't just to throw people off their meta, etc. However, Sky's example above is pretty much exactly why I'm not comfortable with Math's approach.
I completely agree with you. Unfortunately, this is why scumhunting lowers town's winrate. Taking into account all of those things, scum tends to win over town by not lynching other scum, and convincing people to lynch town. Town would literally have a better winrate if they were all robots or computers. That vacuum BENEFITS TOWN. That's why I'm trying not to take into account all of those things.
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Post Post #110 (isolation #32) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:28 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 108, RedFlavor wrote:Dice roller has a 4/12 chance of being scum which is equal to 33%
You're right, of course. This doesn't change the outcome because of how combinatorics works, but I did make a mistake on how I showed that outcome.

Redone expected value calculation:
33% chance dice roller is scum: For scum to win, they have to mislynch town D1 (8/10) and then D2 (6/8).
8/10 * 6/8 = 3/5 = 60%
Town winrate here is 40%.

66% chance dice roller is town: For scum to win, they have to mislynch town D1 (6/10) and then D2 (4/8).
6/10 * 4/8 = 3/10 = 30%
Town winrate here is 70%.

Expected value:
1/3 * 40% + 2/3 * 70% = 0.6 = 60%

The 60% winrate as expected.
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Post Post #111 (isolation #33) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:30 am

Post by Mathdino »

If anyone doesn't believe me on the math side of things, I can write a script in Python (or any programming language that someone else here can verify) that simulates 100 games and shows the winrate.

I'm bored and I could use the programming exercise so Imma go do that now.
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Post Post #116 (isolation #34) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:02 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 115, RedFlavor wrote:There is no reason for scum to roll a dice, they could just say lynch A and lynch B who are actually town members
Original Roll String: 6d10
6 10-Sided Dice: (7, 3, 9, 3, 4, 1) = 27

Here's 6 random numbers. Use the dice tag, put "1d10" inside it, and that was the original dice rolling plan.
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Post Post #119 (isolation #35) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:41 am

Post by Mathdino »

I'm not suggesting that I be the one to roll the dice.

I'm suggesting sheep/Tora do it.
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Post Post #123 (isolation #36) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:03 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 122, sheepsaysmeep wrote:mathdino, what do you think is the probability that the ppl arguing against you are actually the town who think the strategy is bad, and the scum who think it does help town are just staying silent?
Well, you're town, and RedFlavor's team is town. So Lalendra/cy and Sky/Diamond each should have a 2/3 chance of being town?

From your perspective, if you still don't think I'm town, should be 2/4 for each of them.

If you wanna lynch the silent team, go ahead. I'll literally sheep whatever your vote is. I'm just telling you I specifically have more of a problem with those teams, and I think it'll be easier to get a lynch on someone who disagrees with me than someone who agrees with me.
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Post Post #127 (isolation #37) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:06 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 124, manrock wrote:1. What content? apparently the best idea in this setup is too randomly lynch, so what am I supposed to talk about? "Oh random lynch a is better than random lynch b for no absolute reason"
hahahaha nothing means anything

You should read the Sad Existential Spiraling Depression thread in the Speakeasy when you get the chance. It basically sums up this game for me!
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Post Post #134 (isolation #38) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:34 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 133, DiamondSentinel wrote:But the probability of hitting scum with MathDino is exactly the same as if we lynch randomly.
Incorrect. I'm speaking as if I don't know my own alignment right now (imagine me being an IC in a newbie game): Supposing I got lynched, based on the data, the very fact that town was able to lynch me non-randomly makes it insanely more likely that I'm town, as almost all purposeful lynches in this setup are on town.

I would be okay if my townreads rolled the dice and decided to lynch me. I would obviously not support that with my vote because I know my alignment, but the chance of getting dicerolled into a self lynch is a chance I have to take in order to implement optimal strategy.

Basically I'm against purposeful lynches and I'm in favour of arbitrary ones. If you had said "Let's lynch [this specific player that I'm scumreading] and then random lynch tomorrow" I'd be equally uncomfortable with that. Because again, the very fact that we're able to come to a lynch on someone makes it more likely that player is town.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #39) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:36 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 132, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
In post 128, DiamondSentinel wrote:How about this. Let’s lynch MathDino, and if they turn out to be town, we can random Lynch tomorrow.
this is bullshit
only one random lynch has low chance of hitting scum
This is also correct.

I could crunch the numbers on our winrate if we made a purposeful D1 lynch and then an arbitrary one tomorrow (such as one decided by the team we lynch today). I'd expect the winrate to be around 50%, but I'm not sure.
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Post Post #138 (isolation #40) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:01 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 137, DiamondSentinel wrote:Winrate around 50%. Well that’s fine.
Alright, so based on game history, 2/12 of purposeful (non-arbitrary) D1 lynches were on scum. 10/12 were on town. So if we purposefully lynch D1 and then random lynch D2, scum has a
~10/12 * 6/10 = ~5/6 * 3/5 = ~1/2 = ~50% chance of winning.

Huh I guessed exactly right. That's cool.
In post 137, DiamondSentinel wrote:Now shut the fuck up about random lynching and actually play the game. If you want to rando-lynch, go to fucking Vegas.
Okay rude. I've been playing the game by talking to people. I've even provided reads as asked. I'm playing my way by sheeping someone I consider trustworthy, which I consider equivalent to a random lynch.

I'd actually be cool with a policy lynch on this. Pretty sure policy lynches are effectively arbitrary.

What's funny is I'm also the only one here who has given actual reads on people that aren't on me. So the misrep is, yknow, appreciated.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #41) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:53 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 139, Lalendra wrote:
In post 138, Mathdino wrote:I'm playing my way by sheeping someone I consider trustworthy, which I consider equivalent to a random lynch.
Except it's not at all random. That person is choosing a lynch target, and while it could be random TO YOU, because you aren't involved in the process of choosing, it is not at all random and quite subjective to that person. So this is going directly against what you've been suggesting all game.
Hey dude if 6 other players are willing to random lynch based on a dice roll, I'd go for that. But they're not, and coming up with a lynch that's random TO ME is the Poor Man's Version. I can just hope that they're not in some way unduly influenced by scum.

The fact that no one else seems to be wanting to join the awesome/arbitrary wagon on your team if anything indicates to me that it's probably actually on scum. If someone from literally every team had hopped on by now, I'd start to get suspicious because I'd start to think that the lynch was in fact not random and was supported by scum.

That tell is of course null now that I've actually said it, so everyone jumping on after this post wouldn't actually change my mind at all.
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Post Post #141 (isolation #42) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:56 am

Post by Mathdino »

Oh yeah and I coded the setup.
Modeled as 6 players, 2 random mafia, and 2 random lynches. Town wins if one lynch is on mafia. Loops 1000 times. The winrate hovers around 600.

I can do the same thing for the hypothetical narrative in which we randomly select someone as a townie to roll 2 lynches on anyone other than them, but I think you guys get the point by now.
The theoretical winrate in that scenario would be 70%, assuming we select a townie.
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Post Post #147 (isolation #43) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:38 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 146, Sky_Paladin wrote:Did you discuss this strat with your buddy, Amra (iirc?) they have yet to post in here their thoughts. Or at all.

My thoughts are that town supposedly has a higher winrate via scumhunting. You cited that 'scum were just terrible' or am I misappropriating the situation.

I could abide by a random vote except I would then immediately replace out because there's no point playing and I expect others might do the same.

Even if this strat is optimal, is it something you truly wish to enforce?

@Diamond People can legitimately be switched off by your attitude in 137 and could easily have provoked sheep's 144. It's not AI. A quick ISO of sheep shows that they're mostly non-committal about the dice rolling thing anyway.
1. No, I replaced in after the topics were closed. All Amrorachurrolola said in the PT was "Hello". Also if you ISO me you'll see that I didn't support this out the gate; I quickreplaced in and then did the research over the course of the first couple pages.

2. I look at the setup history and note that with the exception of the very last time this setup was run, town hasn't won since scum in general figured out how to properly play this setup. I attribute town's win last time to scum playing like shit and not realising how to play this. I'm not gonna go that far into how I believe scum should optimally play this setup for fairly obvious reasons. But the point is that I think towns really only win when scum makes themselves lynchable.

The only other game where town won on the first lynch was in 2009 when Mastin had internet issues and practically got herself policy lynched (her playstyle was shit back then).

3. I want to win and so I'll go with the most random(ish) option possible from my perspective.

I believe scumhunting is near impossible in this setup, but I actually do have some faith in townhunting. My contribution is that I believe sheep/Tora are town and Red/whoever his partner is are also probably town. As such I'll arbitrarily lynch any of the remaining teams.

I recognise right now that most people on the playerlist aren't willing to dicelynch, and I'm okay with that, but doing an effective equivalent is the best strategy available to me personally.
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Post Post #152 (isolation #44) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:44 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 148, Sky_Paladin wrote:Could you please break down for me why you're tr Sheep/Tora, as far as I can see:
Sheep - a bunch of trivial townreads, including a reversed read on Diamond and yourself in the space of a few hours, mainly pagetop empty spam posts, and meta-type posts (posting relationship chart, dice psuedo vote).
Tora - No real...posts? The samurai avatar does make me want to inherently trust it.

The most thing this slot seems to have is a townread on your slot.

I'm mainly interested in why you are townreading this slot and if there's something I've missed.
I developed this read on page 2 and have no reason to change my mind. No offence intended at all, but in line with my strategy, I especially have no reason to change my mind based on talking to you about the read, because you might be scum subtly influencing me. But to explain further:
In post 19, sheepsaysmeep wrote:i support claiming lovers
tl from diamond
In post 25, Toranaga wrote:random lynch GOAT

also I'm lovers with someone I forgot which makes me lock town

also never lynching amrochora even if she is a wolf
In post 26, Toranaga wrote:
In post 14, LlamaFluff wrote:
sheepsaysmeep replaces jzhenson93
ah ok it was literally this guy

hi sheep
I straight up believe this shit at face value. That's really it. Seems unfaked to me. Also seems like both of them buddying up to my slot early on (not lynching Amro even if she's a wolf, :lol: ) has low utility as scum because that kind of thing would just make their slot scummy in a normal game. Might make people draw connections to my slot, or might make people think they're intentionally trying to make my slot look scummy. Either way, gets them lynched. Scum is self-conscious.

I absolutely see the low-effortness and critiques of their play. In every way, their slot comes across to me as VI town. I think they both started townreaded me mostly because I townread them (bad reason, they're clearly not used to dealing with super good scum).

This actually plays
perfectly
into my strategy. By sheeping this slot all game, I'm effectively saying that their scumhunting abilities are equivalent to a completely random lynch (sorrynotsorry).
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Post Post #161 (isolation #45) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:33 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 156, cytheflyguy wrote:This is a game of majority rules. The minority has to bend the will to the majority. Whoever wins will decide how this game will be played and we can move on.
I'm gonna stop you right there. The anti-dice-rolling faction already won. At this point it's an egofight. Some are scumreading me because they think my plan is anti-town. I'm proving that it's not.

My personal plan right now is to sheep someone whose scumhunting abilities I consider equal to the scumhunting abilities of a dice roll. I find this an effective compromise. Hopefully the guy I'm sheeping also manages to actually drive a lynch. We'll see I guess.

You guys can do what you will. If you want me to pretend I'm playing a normal game, I can do that when you ask. Notice that during that time a few of us have actually come up with reads.
In post 156, cytheflyguy wrote:Also, idgaf what he says. I find this very WIFOM. If I was smart in math like that, I'd do that regardless of role. There's nothing to lose from it imo. I don't scum read him for it because I feel any role could pull this off. If he's scum and is the one to roll, and he excludes himself, he only has to avoid 2 people to be lynched, and those are good odds. If he's town, then the odds apply better for town.
This is a smart take on the matter, and you're either scum or a much better townie than sheep/Tora. I'm not actually sure if I'd do this as scum (it's kinda hard for me to think that way), but the only reason I would ever do this as scum is to gain mad towncred on the basis of me always being the setup-breaking guy.

I would point out that I'm suggesting that someone OTHER than me "rolls the dice" so-to-speak (like I said I consider their vote about as good as a dice roll). This only benefits scum-me mathematically if and only if I'm scum with sheep/Tora. If you're afraid of that specific situation, paranoia away. If not, I think that one point is moot.

I'd ask you for reads but I'm not actually interested. So I'm just gonna point out player-to-player that you're kinda being hypocritical by complaining more about the random lynch discussion when
A. I personally have moved on from the dream of a truly random lynch
B. You haven't given reads, while sheep and I have.
I'm not saying it's alignment indicative of you but I do think you should put your money where your mouth is :P
In post 158, cytheflyguy wrote:
In post 157, sheepsaysmeep wrote:yo im the one rolling
I'm sorry, but I don't care if Jack the Ripper himself is coming back from the dead and rolling. I just want to play mafia not Economics Wonderland
This is a fucking hilarious quote, and I for one would love if Jack the Ripper came back from the dead and rolled us into Economics Wonderland :lol:
I might sig this post-game.
In post 159, sheepsaysmeep wrote:cy is town
poe is the best approach to this setup
In post 160, sheepsaysmeep wrote:sring diamond
Both your reads are bad since their posts aren't really alignment indicative. But whatever, if you change your vote, I'll grudgingly follow, seems equally arbitrary to me.
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Post Post #162 (isolation #46) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:37 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Oh shit I forgot to say the most important thing.
This is a game of majority rules. The minority has to bend the will to the majority. Whoever wins will decide how this game will be played and we can move on.
This is exactly why scum has a high winrate
.

You can argue that mafia is, by principle, a majority rules game all you want. But you have to accept that that MASSIVELY hurts town in this setup, as the presence of scum makes it HIGHLY unlikely that majority actually lynches scum. And remember that scum MUST vote against any random proposal where a non-scumfuck is rolling the dice, because they'd likely lose otherwise. That's in addition to the townies who just don't like the idea. So your side already won this.

I have an inherent distrust of any majorities that form in this setup because of the high volume of scum. If you wanna take a stab at being a better scumhunter than literally every other town that's ever played this setup, just remember to take that into account.
Scum heavily influences the majority
.
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Post Post #164 (isolation #47) » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Alright, then I understand your position (though I unfortunately can't outright townread you for it).

In theory, I agree with you. In practice, towns are shit at scumhunting in this setup because of a couple good scum strategies (one is in the wiki, the others I'm not sharing unless it seems really necessary to later on) that effectively nullify the usual associations. I don't take myself to be a significantly better scumhunter than every previous town that's tried, and even if I am, the chance that I can actually push a lynch on a correct scumread is super-low due to scum influence over the state of the discussion. If every lover pair votes together, it requires
every non-scum pair
to agree on a scumlynch for it to work. Even if a scum joins the scum wagon (as they should to not make obvious associations), it still requires a huge number of townies to agree.

I'm a good LyLo player because my playstyle is to make shitty reads early on, cause inevitable mislynches, and then solve the whole game. Flips and actually reaching the lynch (and the hammerer) are important. In this game, we'll only ever have one flip. That's not enough.

I'll lay out my criterion. In order for me to agree with a non-arbitrary lynch, or agree to lynching based on scumhunting, you'll have to propose some kind of strategy now or later on that is clearly and significantly better than the scumhunting strategies of every previous town. If we do this the normal way, scum will almost certainly win. That's been proven.
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Post Post #168 (isolation #48) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:19 am

Post by Mathdino »

Activity is abysmal.

Based on nothing in particular (PoE and lack of a townread), Kop/BigFinn is likely to be a scum pair. I was townreading the lack of activity from their slot because scum likes to complain about absent partners, but if Finn totally siteflaked it's not like mod could've/would've done much.

RedFlavor is probably joking. If he's being serious, is either town or scum actively posturing as much as possible since I kept being like "SCUM WOULD NEVER AGREE WITH MY IDEA" when the idea actually had a possibility of happening.

Yawn.

Can we speedlynch someone yet?
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Post Post #169 (isolation #49) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:22 am

Post by Mathdino »

Also idk townreading me and my ideas without openly agreeing to some variation of it (like avoiding scumhunting through a speedlynch) is a really nice way to try to get off my radar without helping me do the actual thing that helps town.

So there's that. But what the fuck do I know, I'm purposefully sheeping the most VI slot I can find. Sheep me guys, I know what I'm talkin about.
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Post Post #171 (isolation #50) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 170, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
In post 168, Mathdino wrote: Yawn.
improper grammar ew
Got any ideas, chief?
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Post Post #173 (isolation #51) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

I'm not sure helping you scumhunt is actually pro-town cuz scumhunting is scummy.

But whatever if it helps get the game going, gimme a second
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Post Post #177 (isolation #52) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:07 am

Post by Mathdino »

62. manrock: How does dicelynching actually help?
67. Mathdino: Cuz it's easy for scum to force 2 mislynches. sheep sheep.
71. sheep: Wtf u on abt
73. Mathdino: I pathologically break setups.
77. Mathdino: The longer the day goes on, the more time scum has to distance from each other and make associations impossible. Speedlynch whoever some random townie wants to lynch pls.
79. Sky: Why play if you're just gonna dice lynch? Also votes should be accountable.
80. Sky: This is basically a hydra game and we're looking for scummy hydra interactions. Also my lover is Diamond and we weren't sure whether to claim.
81. Lalendra: Math is probably scum, I don't like his aggression/vibes and he wouldn't random lynch as town.
86. Mathdino: Lol scum tryna discredit me. Scumhunting is super unlikely to work in this setup. Sky/Diamond could be scum but what the fuck do I know.
87. Diamond: I'm against random lynching on principle, and it's pathetic to say "Those who discredit my idea are scum".
88. Mathdino: Meh, not scumreading you, but not agreeing to a dicelynch means you're not for sure town to me. Not continuing this argument because scumhunting is bad.
89. sheep: Do you have any scumreads Math?
90. Mathdino: We're probably doomed because my ideas can't even handle 1 townteam defection, so we lose majority. Also scumreading Lal/cy, nullscum Sky/Diamond, townread Finn/Kop.
91. Diamond: Your idea isn't necessarily wrong, I just don't wanna play that way. Sheep people if you don't actually care about scumreads.
92. Mathdino: That's what I'm doing.
93. Sky: Town could just disagree with you because it's a bad idea. We should hold people accountable for their votes. And get better scumreads.
96. Mathdino: This isn't a regular game. Evidence shows scumhunting is bad.
97. Mathdino: I know town COULD disagree. Just saying that scum is FORCED to disagree because my idea hurts scum.
98. Sky: Please explain why VCA isn't worthwhile in this game. Also random lynching twice is likely to hit town both times.
101. Diamond: I'm sexually attracted to Sky. [jk, you still paying attention?]
102. Mathdino: Town has a horrible winrate, which indicates standard scumhunting is worse than random lynching. And here's a bunch of math to prove it. And it'd be idiotic for me as scum to suggest an idea that 7 times out of 10 makes scum lose.
103. Sky: Random lynching is likely to hit town on both D1 and D2. I'd take those odds as scum.
104/105. Red: *incorrect math that I can't really summarise because it's wrong enough that idk where he went wrong*. Also scum can just rig the dice.
106. Lalendra: You're statistically right, Math, but I still like scumhunting more. Would you vote your scumreads over what the dice say? Also what are you scumreading people for exactly?
107. Mathdino: *shows my work on the probability side*. Also dice roller can't be rigged.
108. Red: *correctly points out an error in Math's calculations*
109. Mathdino: You don't know what I'd do as town, Lalendra, and ongoing game isn't representative. Also if we had more days, scumhunting would be great, but we have 2, and we're more likely to hit town by scumhunting. Also I'm not scumreading people for disagreeing with me, I'm just not-townreading them.
110/111. Mathdino: *corrects the error in my calculations, but it doesn't change the result*. brb writing a python script for this game.
112. Red: Scum could just not actually roll the dice and say they did.
113. Mathdino: No the forum has a built in dice roller, they can't.
114. Lalendra: But Math is suggesting that whoever rolls the dice not include themselves on the random list. Scum then benefits. Math's approach benefits scum.
115. Mathdino: Yeah but I'm suggesting sheep/Tora roll the dice, not me.
122. sheep: The people who disagree with you could just be town who think your idea is bad. Thoughts?
123. Mathdino: They're honestly just likely to be scum by PoE. Your call on who we lynch.
128/133. Diamond: Let's lynch Mathdino today and then random tomorrow. Probability of hitting scum with Mathdino is the same as random lynch.
129. Red: Math's probably town because scum wouldn't suggest an idea that helps town.
134. Mathdino: The very fact that you can get a lynch on someone makes them more likely to be town, because scum helped you with the lynch. So whoever you lynch (especially if it's me) is likelier to be town than scum.
135. Mathdino: I'm guessing that the town winrate of a D1 scumhunting lynch then a D2 random lynch would be around 50%.
137. Diamond: I'll take those odds. Let's play the game. *says so abrasively*
138. Mathdino: Yeah I crunched it to exactly 50%. Also, rude. I've been giving reads bro.
139. Lalendra: Wait, but sheeping someone you townread isn't actually random, it's only random TO YOU.
140. Mathdino: Sheeping a townread is the closest to a random vote I can personally get. Random lynch won't actually happen.
141. Mathdino: I coded the setup, random lynch wins 60% of the time. If we PoE out a town lover pair, it's 70%.
142. Lalendra: Fair points, but the reason no one is sheeping is because there haven't been actual good concrete reasons for any reads yet.
146. Sky: Okay, random lynching is viable. But do you actually wanna do that? Cuz I don't. Did you talk to your lover about this? Diamond should be less abrasive.
147. Mathdino: No I didn't. And I get that no one wants to random lynch, so I'm doing the closest I can.
148. Sky: Doesn't make sense for Math to be scum if he's pushing this idea all by himself. Also why townread sheep/Tora?
149. Diamond: Sorry for being abrasive. I still don't wanna random lynch.
152. Mathdino: I didn't say sheep/Tora are high quality players, just that they're town because *tone* and *reasons*. I'm sheeping them because their vote is equivalent to a dice roll.
156. cy: This conversation is stupid, we need to end it. Let's take it to a vote. I vote not random lynching. Also Math could just be scum excluding himself from the random roll.
157. sheep: No I'm the one rolling
In post 158, cytheflyguy wrote:I'm sorry, but I don't care if Jack the Ripper himself is coming back from the dead and rolling. I just want to play mafia not Economics Wonderland
161. Mathdino: Let's not vote. My idea already lost. I'm just gonna sheep a guy and scumhunt when asked. Also sheep's reads are shit but that's kinda the point.
162. Mathdino: Also, this being a game of majority rules is exactly why scum wins this setup all the time. Too much scum in the town, sways the majority.
163. cy: I just wanna get on with the game. I agree scum influences the majority, and we can watch out for that as we scumhunt. That + PoE = win.
164. Mathdino: I understand, but a couple scum strategies nullify scumhunting. The history of this setup is evidence that scumhunting is bad. If you have a good scumhunting strategy that's never been tried before, I might agree with you.
165. Red: Oh shit let's have Math roll the dice [sidenote: I never suggested that I roll the dice lol]
166. cy: I'm townleaning Math, not sure on Red, not sure on anyone.

The rest you've probably read.
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Post Post #179 (isolation #53) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:12 am

Post by Mathdino »

Also I'm gonna immediately lose respect for anyone who tries to say my last post is actually alignment indicative (and I'm gonna laugh if sheep calls me town for effortposting).

Fuckin bored and if a shitton of explicit IIoA helps move the game on, I'm game.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #54) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:10 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 180, DiamondSentinel wrote:
Only scum would give such a blatantly biased TL;DR like that. You're definitely scum
Hey, Mr. "I hate random lynching, we should be scumhunting" and Mr. "Partners with the guy whose catchphrase is that we should be held accountable for our votes".

You wanna lay down a vote so we can get the game moving?
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Post Post #183 (isolation #55) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:20 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 83, sheepsaysmeep wrote:pairs:
tor and sheep
mathdina and amrochora
redflavor and manrock
cy and lalendra
diamon and sky
kop and bigfin
Sheep, can you start posting this every pagetop?
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Post Post #185 (isolation #56) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

this game makes me want to gag

i don't actually LIKE my strategy or the fact that scumhunting is bad/scummy

but i have to recognise that it's true or else i'll probably drive a mislynch :/

we honestly just need people to start voting
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Post Post #187 (isolation #57) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:31 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 154, LlamaFluff wrote:Not Voting (9) - cytheflyguy, Kop, RedFlavor, BigFinn, DiamondSentinel, manrock, Amrochora, Toranaga, Sky_Paladin
This right here is unfuckingacceptable. Especially for a playerlist that in large part has found beef with me because "people should be accountable for their votes" and "we need to get the game going" and "is anything happening other than a dumb random lynch strategy?" and "I prefer to use actual scumhunting, thanks".

I don't care if Amro and Finn are MIA. This is essentially a 6 person game. If you seriously think you can come up with reads, do it with the evidence at hand and VOTE PLS.
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Post Post #192 (isolation #58) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:42 am

Post by Mathdino »

You're either scum or dangerously bad town when it comes to the end goal of getting a majority.

Sheeping sheep is the objectively correct thing to do.

BROKE: Not voting and not scum/townhunting

JOKE: Not voting and scum/townhunting

WOKE: Voting and explicitly not scum/townhunting
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Post Post #198 (isolation #59) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:40 am

Post by Mathdino »

LOL

YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO SHEEP ME OR MY READS

MY VOTE STANDS xD

I'm at this point pretty much 100% sure that at LEAST one of cy/Lalendra and Kop/Finn is scum. I refuse to budge from my sentiments (unless sheep budges I guess).
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Post Post #200 (isolation #60) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:49 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 199, Lalendra wrote:NO I'M SHEEPING YOU BECAUSE THAT'S AS GOOD AS RANDOM REMEMBER
Ah yeah that's fair, and is probably what I'd do if I were you and I also happened to be town.

I don't think you're town but that's beside the point (cuz it's also the right move for you as scum). Smart one!
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Post Post #202 (isolation #61) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:52 am

Post by Mathdino »

Hey man you just did the objectively correct thing as either alignment. I'm giving you props :P
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Post Post #206 (isolation #62) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 204, Lalendra wrote:Out of curiosity though, why do you SR me at the moment? Is it just because I argued against the diceroll plan? Because iirc there were others who did that as well who you are not currently scumreading, and kop/bigfinn did NOT do that and you ARE scumreading them. I have come around to the idea that you are town but I'm struggling to figure out where your reads are coming from (despite the fact that I know you don't think they're especially important...or maybe because of that?)
I misspoke to a degree. It's less that I think you're scum (because scumhunting is bad) and more that you haven't really given me any indication that you're town. I'm extra pushing you really only cuz sheep is pushing you. If he started pushing Diamond/Sky I'd be all "MORE VOTES ON THIS TEAM".
In post 205, Lalendra wrote:I'm also struggling to see where you/Tora came to your townread on sheep, I don't really feel they've posted anything AI at this point.
This is actually your towniest post. I'm lovers with Amro. TORA is lovers with sheep. I'm townreading Tora. I agree that sheep hasn't really done anything alignment indicative. But he was the first one to vote so I followed him instead of Tora.

Legit scumhunter moment:
There are 2 possibilities:
1. There's no way Lalendra/cy is scumpartners with sheep/Tora, because obviously Lal would know who her buddies are (for those of you who aren't me or my lover, this could also apply to Lal/cy and me/Amro).
2. They're scumpartners and Lalendra specifically knows that I over-rely on townslips. Which seems unlikely.

So that's nice to know, thanks.
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Post Post #207 (isolation #63) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:05 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I wish I could townread you for that vote switch.

But like I said, it's high-IQ-indicative, not alignment indicative :(
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Post Post #208 (isolation #64) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:02 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Hey sheep, what are your reads/game thoughts looking like? By pushing Lalendra/cy I don't mean to encourage you to keep your vote on them. I'm pushing them BECAUSE your vote is on them.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #65) » Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:14 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 211, sheepsaysmeep wrote:3 more weeks lol
please tell me this is how many more weeks of hell we have to endure

and not how many weeks i have to wait for you to stop procrastinating
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Post Post #219 (isolation #66) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:54 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 218, Sky_Paladin wrote:More of a let’s get this party started than a kill this player out of the game vote.
daily reminder that scumhunting parties are anti-town and killing players out of the gate is pro-town

@Mod: Dear god man we need prods on so many people, this game is dying.

BigFinn and Amro are obv getting replaced but we also need prods on manrock and Kop, and eventually probably RedFlavor and cytheflyguy.
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Post Post #220 (isolation #67) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:58 am

Post by Mathdino »

@Mod: Can we also shorten the deadline to one week as of all necessary replacements being made?
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Post Post #227 (isolation #68) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:10 pm

Post by Mathdino »

goddammit i like momo and he probably replaced into a scumslot
whyyyyyy o RNG

PEdit: momo the correct play is to actually not play well so you should be good dw
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Post Post #228 (isolation #69) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:11 pm

Post by Mathdino »

momo wait

the mod linked you to a lover topic

please describe what happened in it

we all already claimed lovers
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Post Post #231 (isolation #70) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

hey misa before you post

same question goes to you

please explain EXACTLY what was in your lover topic

as soon as possible
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Post Post #233 (isolation #71) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:25 pm

Post by Mathdino »

k my slot is locktown

momo's is probably scum

gonna clue you in

reading is pointless and is probably anti-town

just vote whoever i/sheep/Tora vote and you should be good

VOTE: cytheflyguy
(already voted this but i'm reiterating it)
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Post Post #234 (isolation #72) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:27 pm

Post by Mathdino »

there's a tl;dr of the entire game in my ISO somewhere, i think or something

so that way you can skip the walls

if you're really curious, and you're a bit sadistic, this game could actually be pretty entertaining, so feel free to read it for entertaining

i wrote like 60 lines of code for this shit so
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Post Post #236 (isolation #73) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

that person (Lalendra, lovers with the guy we're voting for) apparently no longer scumreads us

but yeah thanks for agreeing with me

altho based on a random sampling of the mafiascum population i'm guessing you wouldn't have agreed with me if you didn't already know i'm coming from a pro-town standpoint

just remember if sheep changes his vote and i'm not online, change your vote and i'll follow suit
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Post Post #237 (isolation #74) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

unless he votes us in which case this whole plan is shit outta luck tbh

c'est la vie
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Post Post #238 (isolation #75) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

ACTUALLY WAIT

Can you help me sort people into "town" and "not necessarily town" piles? My strategy (and yours because you're not getting rid of me) entirely relies on sheep/Tora being locktown, because obviously sheeping them if they happen to be scum would no matter what lead to a loss (scum won't vote them and neither will we).

Scumhunting is scummy but townhunting is townish is my motto. Would be nice to have a partner in
crime
stopping crime.

Basic questions are
do you see any good reason that sheep/Tora shouldn't be considered town?


And
do you see anyone that would be a better candidate to arbitrarily treat as locktown and sheep?
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Post Post #239 (isolation #76) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:53 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Absolutely no one else should comment on this conversation. If I could have it in private I would. It's actually really weird to me right now being able to trust someone in this game.

But yeah if you comment on this conversation I'm gonna have to assume you're manipulating me and my lover and thus should burn. sorrynotsorry
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Post Post #243 (isolation #77) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:45 pm

Post by Mathdino »

misa is my fkin lover :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Post Post #245 (isolation #78) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I don't want anyone to comment because I don't want my or Misa's townreads to be influenced by potential scum.

Sky loses massive points for doing the one thing I asked him not to do lol.

If you guys wanna keep have a conversation with each other, by all means do so. I just don't want you to butt into my conversation with Misa.

This game would be a lot more interesting with daytalk tbh.
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Post Post #249 (isolation #79) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:01 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i'm just gonna point out that absolutely no one read my tl;dr all the way through and i know this because of an easter egg i put in it
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Post Post #250 (isolation #80) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:01 pm

Post by Mathdino »

pagetop
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Post Post #256 (isolation #81) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:11 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 251, Sky_Paladin wrote:Dino, you can’t go “I dont know how to scum hunt in this setup let’s just roll a dice” and then hand out town reads. You have said repeatedly that you don’t know how to scum hunt but you will give out town reads based on literally nothing.

When I posted I “lost points” but when sheep posted you literally didn’t care.

I accept that you may not know wtf to do but attempting to railroad town into dice rolling and now attempting to railroad town into sheepingnsheep - this and the prior thing reeks of hypocriticalness.
ok fine i'll respond to this

1. Scumhunting =/= townhunting. Townhunting is easier. It's extremely rare that my strongest D1 early read ends up being scum.

2. I thought it was obvious that I wanted to restrict that conversation to me and my lover because I don't want her to be influenced. Now that's unavoidable. You knew this. sheep on the other hand literally did not notice that I was lovers with that particular replacement. I give that a free pass. He didn't actually influence anything because he didn't know wtf he was talking about.

3. She's my lover, of course I'm going to ask her to vote with me. If there's one positive point to sheep's play (which isn't great) it's that he's actually paying attention to my strategy. I don't know wtf to do and I fundamentally believe towns IN GENERAL don't know wtf to do in this setup, even if they think they do.

@sheep:
I was hoping for a quicklynch by now but I might as well ask since you're gonna get a lot of flak for this. I don't particularly care either way but

Why are we all still voting cy when you said you had a townread on them earlier?
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Post Post #257 (isolation #82) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:30 pm

Post by Mathdino »

@Everyone:
You know the post by post tl;dr I did of the longer posts in the game?

I want everyone to post a tl;dr of their lover PTs with every single post included. Even if your lover already did.
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Post Post #258 (isolation #83) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:30 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I already claimed this as did Misa.
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Post Post #259 (isolation #84) » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:32 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I want DiamondSentinel to go before SkyPaladin.
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Post Post #264 (isolation #85) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:41 am

Post by Mathdino »

Tora, sheep, how many posts are in your PT?
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Post Post #265 (isolation #86) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:13 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 255, Sky_Paladin wrote:Hold people accountable for their votes
Vote count analysis on day 2 if we miss.
Engage players in discussion and question strange interactions.
In short everything that you would do in a normal game.
You know this statistically makes us more likely to lose. Like, you know that. We've had this conversation. Not gonna have it again. But if you're actually interested in reading me and you've been paying attention, you should know exactly what my motivation is. Tora/sheep don't seem to have trouble understanding me.
In post 260, Sky_Paladin wrote:I am vla and been reading the game through a phone.
I had literally no idea that you were talking to your replacement friend
. Your assumption that sheep didn’t know is stretching and your explanation look like ass pulls to me.
Ok I mean I believe the underlined. So you regain lost points for that.
But calling my response/explanation "ass pulls" and making it sound not-obvious that sheep didn't see, AND THEN STILL misunderstanding the reason that you lost points and why I'm trying to restrict my conversation with my lover? Loses the same points.
I'll give you a tempo free pass since you're phoneposting so you do have an excuse to be paying 0 attention. But your case on sheep is balls and all 4 of you have been completely ineffective at actually addressing why I'm townreading that slot, so your slot is clearly uninterested in diplomacy. Hope things get better after your V/LA.
In post 263, Toranaga wrote:IDK how these things are basis for you to reverse your read on dino but maybe you're scum so it would make sense to start casting shade on him. what do you think of cy?
Couple things.

1. If you're town, which I assume you are, understand that scum knows this is an accurate townbloc and if we truly lynch randomly among the remaining slots, there's a 1/6 chance they'll make it out alive. This is another case of "town COULD be doing this, but scum MUST do it". Scum HAS to break up the townbloc in order to win. Unfortunately it doesn't make Diamond/Sky obvscum. But it definitely clears them against being locktown.

2. Do you have a good explanation as to why you're not playing your own town meta? I know you rely on meta a lot. Have been meta-ing you.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #87) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:19 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 267, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
In post 264, Mathdino wrote:Tora, sheep, how many posts are in your PT?
only two of llama's
Wait what? Dude there should be 3.

Did you read the post numbers and see the last one read #2?
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Post Post #270 (isolation #88) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:32 am

Post by Mathdino »

Did you just scumslip? There's definitely 3. Two initial Llama posts and one "this is closed".

VOTE: Tora
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Post Post #273 (isolation #89) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:42 am

Post by Mathdino »

momo ruined it. Hope the reaction test wasn't too obvious or it's NAI for sheep. But for now sheep is locktown to me again.

VOTE: cytheflyguy

Sheep, please answer my question in post

Momo, please answer my question in post .
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Post Post #274 (isolation #90) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:44 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 266, momo wrote:Okay guys i'm going to read now...until I finish, nobody is to vote.

If you must use the hurt tags like so:

Code: Select all

[hurt][/hurt]


Scum only needs two mislynched to win, in that time, we must get a lynch...so, this is the day before lylo....no hasty votes or anything of the sort...

we will come to a hurt majority through discussion before actually lynching
This is extremely anti-town (I don't think you realise it). Hurt votes are unaccountable and can be easily used by scum to muddle up their associations.

Sorry but speedlynching > speedhurting.
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Post Post #278 (isolation #91) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:57 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 156, cytheflyguy wrote:Okay but this is kinda stupid. I stopped reading around page 5. I may get back to it later. Idk. Seems interesting but not in the mood.

Look, there are 2 possibilities that will stem from this conversation. Either we will or we will not choose from rolling dice. If we do roll with dice, then Dino rolls a fucking die and we take our chances. There's another possibility that we won't. Then what? We'd have all these days lost over fucking math. I may have failed pre-calculus, but I understand this much: if we don't do the dice, then all of this is for nothing, and we start from square 1. So please, let's wrap this up. People have made up their minds so
In your next post, vote for whichever side you're on regarding this debate. This is a game of majority rules. The minority has to bend the will to the majority. Whoever wins will decide how this game will be played and we can move on.
Hot damn. I can't process all of these numbers. Honestly, I'd rather die than have to sit through this. If we just put this to a vote, we end this and can move on with the game.

Also, idgaf what he says. I find this very WIFOM. If I was smart in math like that, I'd do that regardless of role. There's nothing to lose from it imo. I don't scum read him for it because I feel any role could pull this off. If he's scum and is the one to roll, and he excludes himself, he only has to avoid 2 people to be lynched, and those are good odds. If he's town, then the odds apply better for town. Idk, I could be wrong on how this works. All I know is that this needs to end.

Please vote on this issue.

I
vote to scumread instead of putting it to chance.
In post 157, sheepsaysmeep wrote:yo im the one rolling
In post 158, cytheflyguy wrote:I'm sorry, but I don't care if Jack the Ripper himself is coming back from the dead and rolling. I just want to play mafia not Economics Wonderland
In post 159, sheepsaysmeep wrote:cy is town
poe is the best approach to this setup
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Post Post #284 (isolation #92) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:00 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 176, Kop wrote:I'm not really complaining about BigFinn not being here, we didn't speak in our lovers topic, however I've only got concerns that his slot isn't able to speak and would rather us not be lynched purely because I don't have any other reads on people, and a lover that is gone from the site.
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Post Post #285 (isolation #93) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:00 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 176, Kop wrote:I'm not really complaining about BigFinn not being here, we didn't speak in our lovers topic, however I've only got concerns that his slot isn't able to speak and would rather us not be lynched purely because I don't have any other reads on people, and a lover that is gone from the site.
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Post Post #287 (isolation #94) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:03 am

Post by Mathdino »

After taking 2 minutes to carefully weigh my options, I'm actually going to not sheep that for now, because sheep made that vote based off of my reasoning, and is thus an entirely non-arbitrary vote.
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Post Post #291 (isolation #95) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:05 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 13, Sky_Paladin wrote:I discussed claiming with my lover and we didn’t know if that was a good idea or not so I guess we will go with the flow.
In post 80, Sky_Paladin wrote:In our topic we basically discussed what the setup was because apparently neither of us read it before signing up, then freaking out when we realised that we had no idea how to scumhunt in this scenario, and then to claim or not claim. We decided we'd just go with the flow, so, here I am, flowing away.
In post 84, DiamondSentinel wrote:I read it. I was just musing about possible strategies. Anyways, as my partner said, I’m not exactly sure how best to find scum in this situation.
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Post Post #296 (isolation #96) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:30 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 101, DiamondSentinel wrote:Huh. The amount of accord between Sky and me is unreal, especially considering our planning during the pre-game phase was "Hey, I have no idea what to do, do you?" "Nope" "Oh cool. Well, let's just wing it"
Speaking of, I missed this quote in my Sky/Diamond quote list.
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Post Post #300 (isolation #97) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:33 am

Post by Mathdino »

I'm lightly suggesting that momo got his tl;dr from the same place that Diamond/Sky got their summary of their PT.
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Post Post #310 (isolation #98) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:19 am

Post by Mathdino »

Think for a second about why I'm withholding my vote (after being the one to fish for and catch the alleged slip) and why it's in line with my Theory of Polygamist Mafia, and then reconsider.

I agree that Red outright defending momo is weird, but we're not in the business of finding partners right now.
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Post Post #314 (isolation #99) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:31 am

Post by Mathdino »

Are you fucking kidding me?

Do you in any way understand my motivation in doing this?

You've gone on all day about how you want me to get back to the game and shut up about the diceroll idea. Doing that is my first instance of legitimately scumhunting and you're jumping on my ass for it?

Like, jesus, if you don't understand why I made 257 and 259, tell me now so I can assume you're being stupid and not scum.

If you do understand, I have nothing. I'm in awe. And I'm wondering if you even read the last couple pages.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #100) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:32 am

Post by Mathdino »

If Diamond/Sky being idiotic makes us completely unable to get a majority, I'm going to advocate for policy lynching them if we run up to the deadline so we can get our majority tomorrow.
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Post Post #319 (isolation #101) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

I admittedly over-rely on slips. I consider your opening to be townslippy enough to consider you town.

So I'll revise.

I can't scumhunt in this game the way that Sky, Diamond, Lalendra, and cy want me to, because day associations are bullshit.

I do believe I can scumhunt through baiting scumslips and figuring out who's lying about their PTs though, because that doesn't rely on the "there are 2 hydrae who are scum together and will interact weirdly in the day thread" theory.

Problem is scumslips almost never actually happen and I didn't expect a situation as blatant as this.
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Post Post #323 (isolation #102) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:19 am

Post by Mathdino »

Getting tired of this.

1. I've already given massive mountains of evidence that playing this setup socially is anti-town. Gutreads are, in most games, abysmal. The hilarious thing though is I'm gut-townreading Tora/sheep and you're also giving me shit for that.
"ick town" trying to push the objectively pro-town strategy
that you already agreed was pro-town
, and you still accuse me of playing badly. Jesus christ. If you have that little respect for me, meta my towngames and my scumgames to at least see I'm a legitimately good player and I mold my playstyle to my role (role, not alignment) and the setup. Maybe then we can stop this slapfight.

2. Oh screw you. I'm not doing anything to actively stop you from scumhunting. But you're actively hampering the way I play the game. You complain about no content to read. I'm trying to produce content to gut read.

3. ahahahahaha that feel when people's principles lose games
oh man i see this shit all the time
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Post Post #332 (isolation #103) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:48 am

Post by Mathdino »

Has momo never fucked up a scumplan before? That's fundamentally the question here.

Also Diamond's deathtunnel of me, if he's town, is going to outright prevent us from getting a majority in the end. So that's an issue we're gonna have to deal with eventually. If all the grandstanding he says about himself is true (I'm great, my gutreads are great, my principles never lose games), I'm inclined to think he's actually just telling the truth and is thus scum because he's wrong. And if not, at least we can get majority next time.

He needs to claim his PT though.
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Post Post #333 (isolation #104) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:36 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Hey Sky, I see you online. Please answer the question I asked in since clearly your partner would rather policy lynch me for asking it. (I asked Diamond to go first for a very specific reason but I'll talk about that)

@Mod: Request replacement of manrock (siteflake) and prod on Kop.
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Post Post #337 (isolation #105) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:26 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Have you not caught up yet? Or are you intentionally not catching up because I suggested not doing so?
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Post Post #341 (isolation #106) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:08 pm

Post by Mathdino »

The quote Lalendra used snipped your quote out of context.

In context, please explain exactly and in full why you would say this:
In post 176, Kop wrote:I'm not really complaining about BigFinn not being here, we didn't speak in our lovers topic, however I've only got concerns that his slot isn't able to speak and would rather us not be lynched purely because I don't have any other reads on people, and a lover that is gone from the site.
I didn't really understand your sentence/meaning at the time but it seemed unimportant back then.
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Post Post #344 (isolation #107) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

How much time elapsed between BF saying "hi" and Llama closing the thread?
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Post Post #346 (isolation #108) » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Oh lol dude I just meant an estimate.

You mean you didn't sign onto MafiaScum?
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Post Post #353 (isolation #109) » Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:11 am

Post by Mathdino »

It's not exactly clearing. It's possible BigFinn made those exact kinds of posts in the scumthread and Llama locked the thread at the same time as he did the rest of us, so Kop just lifted timestamps from the scumthread.

Possible. Not really likely. I prefer the arbitrary Lalendra/cy lynch.

Also someone who's doing legit scumhunting, please explain to me the scum motivation of Tora trying to town-clear the guy that his partner is voting for.
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Post Post #364 (isolation #110) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:08 pm

Post by Mathdino »

So the question is whether or not we can actually get our majority.
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Post Post #380 (isolation #111) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 365, Sky_Paladin wrote:Hey Dino, can you run your program again with the following parameters:

A - On day 1, if scum is killed, you don't roll again. Justification: Eliminate impossible scenario's from the decision matrix.

B - On day 1, if we sheep a scum player, odds of town win. Kingmaker scenario gone bad.

C - On day 1, if we sheep a town player, odds of town win. Kingmaker best case scenario.

By my math we're looking at around a 54.45 chance of a scum victory in A, a 72% chance of a scum victory in B, and a straight 50% chance of town/scum winning in C.

Random only
Kingmaker
A. That's already taken into account. If scum is killed either day, town wins. Like, if we killed scum D1, we could lynch whoever we wanted (if game continued) D2 and we'd still have won. If you want me to add in something, I'll do it (it wouldn't be hard), but I guarantee you it's mathematically equivalent.

B. Exactly 40%

C. Exactly 70%

I've done the math on both of these previously. Since Kingmaker is more likely (2/3 likely) to pick a townie, it's weighted 2:1 toward Scenario C. That means the totally random Kingmaker with a totally random roll comes out to 60%.

I don't know where you got those numbers tbh.

Let me know if you'd rather me explain my theoretical calculations, or actually recode the setup and demonstrate.
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Post Post #384 (isolation #112) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:46 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I've read everything that's been said, but any response I have needs a lot of time dedicated to it. So I'll get to this soon.
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Post Post #389 (isolation #113) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:38 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 388, Sky_Paladin wrote:Hypothetically, what do you think of a scenario where we do elect a kingmaker, and if they guess wrong, we lynch the king the following day? Please tell me why this is a terrible idea.
Horrible. This only works if we elect a kingmaker completely randomly AND unanimously agree to follow the kingmaker, which will clearly not happen.

Possible scenarios:

1. We elect a scum kingmaker. Either:
A. We follow the strategy and win.
B. Scum convinces us to not actually lynch the kingmaker tomorrow somehow. We lose (low likelihood but possible).

2. We elect a town kingmaker.

D1. Either:
A. Kingmaker picks right and we win.
B. Scum manipulates kingmaker into picking wrong and it goes to D2. Upon which we likely lynch the kingmaker and lose.

The B scenarios read more likely to me than A scenarios. tl;dr I'm unsatisfied with the lack of arbitrariness.
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Post Post #390 (isolation #114) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Sky, while you're here, can you to a tl;dr of each post in your scumtopic? It would certainly reduce paranoia in you.

It's kinda null tbh since momo was already maybe "caught" because of it so you're not gonna scumslip. But everyone else did, sooooo
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Post Post #394 (isolation #115) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:36 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 393, Sky_Paladin wrote:That said - Dino - what are your thoughts re: Sheep and my interaction over the last few pages? I personally feel unsatisfied.
I mean I wish I could tell you I cared so you'd get off my ass :lol:

buuuuut I don't.

My townread on sheep came first, and I believe early reads hold more weight than later reads until flips happen.

So you might be scum and that might all be theatrics to break up my townbloc, which is your 100% ideal strategy as scum, and is potentially what I'd do in your situation.

But understand that in my situation, it's a very bad idea for me to reconsider my townreads based on interaction with people who I'm not townreading.

If you want to point to anything in particular, go ahead and I'll comment. I'm just not willing to do it when it's potentially a "you convince me of an idea and convince me it was my idea all along" salesman trick.
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Post Post #396 (isolation #116) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:46 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Huh I feel like shit about this but I actually kind of believe that lover PT.

I was honestly hoping your slot wasn't town, because town can't get majority without bussing or at least one person from every pair on board. So it would've been nice to just lynch your slot because everyone else would come together on it.

But now I'm slightly townreading you, which is making me mad uncomfortable.

Going through the pairs:
sheep/Tora: town because great reasons
cy/Lalendra: I mean let's be honest this is probably scum at this point cuz scum should've pushed this lynch through by now
Kop/momo: The only thing to read them on is the "slip" and even that could just be bullshit.
Red/manrock: Absolutely nothing to read except for a few things that maybe feel town early on. Currently voting cy/Lalendra so probably not scum with them? Or purposefully bussing? Does anything mean anything in this game? Probably not?
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Post Post #397 (isolation #117) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:47 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 395, Lalendra wrote:I get grumpy when I feel like what I say doesn't matter. I am happy to engage if anyone has any questions or anything, there's just no defense for "please don't arbitrarily lynch me", since there's no logic behind it to argue against. I can say "don't lynch me, I'm town," but that's NAI as it's what anyone would say in this situation, so.
Hey I mean you were doing pretty well when you argued that we should just arbitrarily lynch someone else :P
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Post Post #399 (isolation #118) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:56 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 398, Lalendra wrote:
In post 397, Mathdino wrote:Hey I mean you were doing pretty well when you argued that we should just arbitrarily lynch someone else
I'm just bummed because I was really excited for this game and now I feel like I'm going to get lynched D1 through no fault of my own.
I don't know how good I can be at pep talking you since I'm obviously the cause of all this, and I'm sorry you're bummed regardless of your alignment. It's a sucky position to be in and I can understand how me playing to win can suck the enjoyment out of your game.

But here's what I was thinking: If we arbitrarily vote on D2 based on sheeping someone we think is town (Sheep/Tora) we do in fact run the risk of just having Sheep/Tora be scum.

If you and cy flip, you're certainly town, which means you're completely unbiased.

I believe that everyone's reads are basically arbitrary because scumhunting is hard in this setup.

But if you don't believe that, you can always push for someone to be lynched on D2. Gives you something to do :]
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Post Post #401 (isolation #119) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Another problem with this setup is that for any townie that actually wants to scumhunt (cough not me), it's actually more beneficial to sit back and see what everyone else does without your intervention.

Which incentivises lurking and not voting.

Hope I get a cool replacement.
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Post Post #402 (isolation #120) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:06 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 378, Sky_Paladin wrote:I just noticed in 256 Dino claims that he is sheeping you because he is your lover. Thoughts.
Oh yeah I forgot about this.
In post 256, Mathdino wrote:2. I thought it was obvious that I wanted to restrict that conversation to me and my lover because I don't want her to be influenced. Now that's unavoidable. You knew this.
sheep on the other hand literally did not notice that I was lovers with that particular replacement
. I give that a free pass. He didn't actually influence anything because he didn't know wtf he was talking about.

3. She's my lover, of course I'm going to ask her to vote with me.
If there's one positive point to sheep's play (which isn't great) it's that he's actually paying attention to my strategy
. I don't know wtf to do and I fundamentally believe towns IN GENERAL don't know wtf to do in this setup, even if they think they do.
I'm having trouble telling what you're referring to. I cut out the parts that I'm pretty sure you're not referring to and underlined the parts you might be.

You know sheep is a guy right? And I was saying that I'm lovers with Misa, and sheep literally didn't realise I was lovers with her?
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Post Post #405 (isolation #121) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:11 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 403, Sky_Paladin wrote:2 and 3 are the main reasons I think Cy is probably town. I feel if we had scum at L-2 there would be a lot more posts from outraged players, eh?
Sorry to butt in and ruin all the fun, but in line with my "scumhunting is scummy and completely ineffective" beliefs:

Correct play for scum with cy/Lalendra is to NOT post a ton of outrage to make it look like there's no one defending them, in the hopes that town will whip up a lynch on someone else.
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Post Post #406 (isolation #122) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:13 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 403, Sky_Paladin wrote:3 - You are town and scum aren't making any effort to lynch you because a whole bunch of town are doing it themselves.
Based on the votecount, this is impossible. The only pair that hasn't had someone at some point vote for cytheflyguy is you/Diamond. And maybe momo/Kop but I don't remember.
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Post Post #407 (isolation #123) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:16 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 403, Sky_Paladin wrote:2 and 3 are the main reasons I think Cy is probably town. I feel if we had scum at L-2 there would be a lot more posts from outraged players, eh?
Wait on second thought, you understand that the fact that you/Diamond have been trying to counterwagon the whole game is actually exactly why I think you guys might be scum with cy/Lalendra right? Like... you guys ARE the outrage :lol:
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Post Post #411 (isolation #124) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:29 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 408, DiamondSentinel wrote:In this setup, scum are almost
entirely
incapable of bussing more than one vote at a time. Scum has one loss; that's it. They can't use bussing to get towncred from a flip. (I had originally considered making this a really really big long drawn-out paragraph but I don't really have much more to say. Bussing is just a bad idea for scum.)

Basically, what I was getting at is this: if you think that cy is scum, you're saying that we are the most likely scum-pair.
Is that the hill you are willing to die on?


PEdit: Do scum have daychat? I'm gonna guess that there's no hard defending no matter who the wagon is.

And anyways, I'm not counterwagoning. I've been pushing other people the entire time. I just simple don't SR cy.
1. I disagree with this 100% and I recommend reading the history of the setup (especially in the cases that mafia won) to see why that's incorrect.
Scum uses bussing to make it look like the wagon is on town. Because if everyone wants to lynch someone, that someone must be town right? (no)

2. Uh, that's a weird question. Sky said that if cy/Lal are scum, there'd probably be a ton of outrage/counterwagoning from another hydra. I pointed out that you guys are literally that hydra, and by his own logic, from my standpoint, cy/Lal could still be scum. That logic works much better if you know that you guys are town.

And I'm not gonna do a "lynch me if I'm wrong" thing, that would be stupid (is that what you're asking?). Like, if cy/Lal are town, then you guys get massive towncred from voting other people all day and giving me/Sheep a ton of pushback on the idea.

3. Don't think so, IIRC from reading the role PMs.

4. Whether or not you intend to counterwagon (or believe it's justified) doesn't change the fact that that's what you're doing. Counterwagoning doesn't have to be intentional.
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Post Post #412 (isolation #125) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:32 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 409, Sky_Paladin wrote:
Correct play for scum with cy/Lalendra is to NOT post a ton of outrage to make it look like there's no one defending them, in the hopes that town will whip up a lynch on someone else.
Wait on second thought, you understand that the fact that you/Diamond have been trying to counterwagon the whole game is actually exactly why I think you guys might be scum with cy/Lalendra right? Like... you guys ARE the outrage
yesss, towncleared~~
Yeah it's contradictory. Scum can honestly do whatever the fuck they want and it's pretty much all null (NIHILISM YEAH). There are a few specific things that I would probably for sure townread people for but I'm not gonna say what they are because then scum will just emulate that.

The first quote is in response to you. When I talk to people I assume they're town. From your standpoint, cy/Lalendra can still be scum because it'd be very good play for other potential scum hydrae to look like they want cy/Lalendra lynched.

The second quote is an afterthought I had when you tried to prove cy/Lalendra were town because there was no outrage. I'm saying, by your own logic (which is kinda bunk because all scumhunting is bunk, sorry for being a broken record), you guys could still be scum, and I've noticed the potential connection.

They could be scum with anybody, idfk.
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Post Post #414 (isolation #126) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:37 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Aaaaand this game is reduced to semantics and nitpicking.

"I think you guys might be scum with cy/Lalendra"

Might be. As in, you guys aren't cleared. You could be scum with them, you could be scum without them, idfk, so many things are null it's not even funny.

My goal is to clear enough people through townreading them to just lynch among the remaining 3 hydrae and hit scum. I'd love to town-clear you guys, but I can't, so you're still in my lynchpool both days.
I'd also love to clear cy/Lalendra but I'm not really sure that's possible without straight up lynching them.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #127) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 365, Sky_Paladin wrote:Hey Dino, can you run your program again with the following parameters:

A - On day 1, if scum is killed, you don't roll again. Justification: Eliminate impossible scenario's from the decision matrix.

B - On day 1, if we sheep a scum player, odds of town win. Kingmaker scenario gone bad.

C - On day 1, if we sheep a town player, odds of town win. Kingmaker best case scenario.

By my math we're looking at around a 54.45 chance of a scum victory in A, a 72% chance of a scum victory in B, and a straight 50% chance of town/scum winning in C.

Random only
Kingmaker

Now doing my catch up post.
Ohhhh I see what's going wrong with this. Mathematical fallacy.

You're assuming that every single possible outcome of this game is equally likely. Lemme see if I can explain this by a simple analogy.

Say I flip a coin. If I get heads, I win! If I get tails, I flip again just once. If I get heads, I win! If I get tails a second time, I lose :(
Theoretical probability calculations suggest 75% chance of winning. 50% chance of winning initially, and then an extra 25% for trying again and winning.

The way that you've performed your calculations, you assume that all scenarios are equally likely. That is, yours would look like
A. Heads - heads
B. Heads - tails
C. Tails - heads
D. Tails - tails

But you would rewrite that (by crossing out impossible scenarios as:
A. Heads
-
heads

B. Heads - tails
C. Tails - heads

D. Tails - tails

Scenario B is now impossible (because if you win on the first flip, you don't flip again). So there are only 3 outcomes. Heads first try, tails then heads, and tails.

This implies a much lower winrate of 66%. I invite you to try flipping a real coin to see that's inaccurate. The actual winrate is 75%.

The fallacy that you make will generally result in a probability much lower than expected from doing it correctly.

I'll go code the setup though just to definitively prove this.
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Post Post #418 (isolation #128) » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:06 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I did. You still treated each outcome as equally likely by removing a bunch of scenarios instead of COMBINING them.

You're also wayyyy overcomplicating it. We already know who everyone's lovers are. So couple flaws:

1. You can't lynch the same player twice
2. You can't lynch one player then lynch their lover

If you want to Excel this, and you totally can (as long as you remember not to cross out outcomes, because it doesn't work that way), you should model it with 6 hydrae, 2 of which are scum, and lynching either on either day wins.

Think about it this way. The case of a town win on D1 is actually more likely than the case of a town win on D2. This seems counterintuitive. But town winning on D1 is just a straight up 1/3 shot (it's actually still 1/3 if we randomly select a kingmaker who dice rolls). Town winning on D2 relies on lynching town D1 (2/3 shot) and THEN lynching scum on D2 (2/5 shot). Think about why this is slightly less likely.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #129) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:56 am

Post by Mathdino »

RedFlavor wrote:
In post 383, momo wrote:u r right sky....red's entire iso is setup spec to appear towny and a random vote on cy that says let's go...indicating that he is scum going for a push...i'll bite

VOTE: RedFlavor
Ill sheep math cuz I think he is town and we are likely to win when we follow a townie even its rng
Would you sheep me on anyone?

Like is there anyone I could vote that you wouldn't vote for?
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Post Post #430 (isolation #130) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:26 am

Post by Mathdino »

Oh dear god.
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Post Post #431 (isolation #131) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 429, hyung wrote:Hi everyone. This is my first game and I'm definitely a bit behind but I'll catch up when I can.
hyung, you were sent a link to a Lover Private Topic in your role PM.

Please go post by post in the topic explaining/paraphrasing what happened.
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Post Post #432 (isolation #132) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:32 am

Post by Mathdino »

From what manrock said (your replacement) there were 3 posts in your PT, yes?
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Post Post #434 (isolation #133) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:38 am

Post by Mathdino »

I'm lovers with MisaTange. Most of us have claimed already.

Can you at least summarise your lover's posts if you don't want to claim lovers?
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Post Post #435 (isolation #134) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:08 am

Post by Mathdino »

Wait okay I found scum guys. Never reread the early game lol.

Read pages 1 and 2 (the source of the best reads) and see how I know a certain couple of players are scum.
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Post Post #437 (isolation #135) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:38 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 436, DiamondSentinel wrote:
In post 435, Mathdino wrote:Wait okay I found scum guys. Never reread the early game lol.

Read pages 1 and 2 (the source of the best reads) and see how I know a certain couple of players are scum.
Is it Tor? Because that's the most likely scum-slot in that list aside from you and sheep.
If that's your guess, tell me how I know.
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Post Post #442 (isolation #136) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:12 pm

Post by Mathdino »

sheep please do the work I asked you to do xD

No one has told me why I know a certain player/player pair is scum.

Edit: @Sky: Yeah your logic on Red is valid from your perspective as town (PoE helps a lot). I just don't know you're town so it's not nearly as valid to me.
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Post Post #446 (isolation #137) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:16 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Look harder. Think about the kinds of things that I would see. You should know me as a player pretty ok by now.
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Post Post #451 (isolation #138) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:55 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Mathblade, just so you know, we've claimed lovers already. The following distribution:

Mathblade - Toranaga
sheepsaysmeep - Mathdino
momo - Kop
RedFlavor - hyung
cytheflyguy - Lalendra
Diamond - Sky

We've been summarising each of our lover PTs.

What's in yours?
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Post Post #454 (isolation #139) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You nailed it, sheep.
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Post Post #455 (isolation #140) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Mathblade, to be clearer, these were the lovers at the start of the game:

Mathblade (Amrochora) - Toranaga
sheepsaysmeep (jzhenson) - Mathdino (pisskop)
momo (BigFinn) - Kop
RedFlavor - hyung (manrock)
cytheflyguy - Lalendra
Diamond - Sky

Originals are in parentheses.
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Post Post #461 (isolation #141) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:07 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Who was in the PT originally? Like, your PT doesn't have your name in it because you're a replacement.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #142) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:11 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Those pairs are only what's been claimed already.

What doesn't add up?
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Post Post #473 (isolation #143) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:20 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Welcome to the town. I mean I know you're town but if anyone else needed any more evidence.

Anyway, in my ISO is a massive tl;dr of the entire game.

Here's pretty much everyone's angles to the best of my recollection:
(very very rough summary)
sheepsaysmeep: *votes cytheflyguy randomly*
Mathdino: Scumhunting is scummy and anti-town, we should either random speedlynch or sheep a townie. sheep seems town. *votes cytheflyguy*
sheepsaysmeep: seems legit, sheep me
Tora: sheep is my lover, I'll sheep sheep *votes cytheflyguy*
Lalendra: Wtf, I'm lovers with cy, this is a horrible idea. *votes Mathdino*
Diamond: Not genuinely scumhunting is idiotic and I'll replace out if we random lynch. *votes Mathdino*
SkyPaladin: Math's math is wrong and anti-town. *votes Mathdino*
RedFlavor: idk the random lynch idea seems ok *votes cytheflyguy*
cytheflyguy: Okay we need to stop with this random lynch discussion, it's holding up the game. Mathdino is causing chaos. *votes Mathdino*
Kop: too much of this game is NAI, idk wtf is going on
momo: *semi scumslips*. Also RedFlavor is scummy *votes RedFlavor*
sheep: SCUMSLIP *votes momo*
Lalendra: Yeah that seems legit *votes momo*
cytheflyguy: Mathdino seems town, sheep's ISO is devoid of good content *votes sheep*

You might notice I only appear once. That's because I've been pushing the exact same angle all game.

If you wanna just do what I tell you, I need you to read the game and tell me who's town. My strategy relies on the fact that scumhunting is impossible with this setup, but limited townhunting is possible.
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Post Post #477 (isolation #144) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:22 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Which ones other than yours?

Also read sheep's 253.

sheep, stop pagetopping, it hides the pagebottom content. I've often missed what you're even posting.
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Post Post #478 (isolation #145) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I MEANT
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Post Post #482 (isolation #146) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 481, MathBlade wrote:So we seriously have an argument based on math we should randomly lynch?
How much do you like math and/or programming? I don't know you at all :(

I've seen you in other games and have wondered what would happen if you, me, and mathcam ended up in the same game together.
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Post Post #487 (isolation #147) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:29 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 483, MathBlade wrote:I have a BA in math and I work as a computer programmer.

I don’t know who Mathcam
K cool.

Read my ISO. Or skim it. You'll probably get the point faster than others. Stop reading once you get it.

I also coded the setup somewhere so Ctrl+F for "coded". (did this to prove to non-believers that my idea was correct and pro-town)

Random lynch creates a 60% winrate.

Random lynch with 1 town lover-pair confirmed creates a 70% winrate.

We're not gonna actually random lynch cuz literally no one but me wants that, but if we agree to sheep one lover-pair, they can just randomly Kingmake.

The actual winrate is like less 36% or some shit. I forget. Check the wiki for Polygamist Mafia, I basically stole the idea from there.
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Post Post #488 (isolation #148) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:32 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Lol I have an AS in Physics and I teach math, Scratch, Java, and Python to ES, MS, and HS :P
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Post Post #491 (isolation #149) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

K so you're one of those players. Damn.

Well, we honestly probably just caught scum early with cy/Lalendra, because the fact that the lynch hasn't been pushed through already is insanely suspicious.
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Post Post #492 (isolation #150) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:40 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 158, cytheflyguy wrote:
In post 157, sheepsaysmeep wrote:yo im the one rolling
I'm sorry, but I don't care if Jack the Ripper himself is coming back from the dead and rolling. I just want to play mafia not Economics Wonderland
One day, I'll mod a game called Economics Wonderland, and it'll be amazing.
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Post Post #500 (isolation #151) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:47 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 494, MathBlade wrote:Another application of the law of averages is a belief that a sample's behaviour must line up with the expected value based on population statistics. For example, suppose a fair coin is flipped 100 times. Using the law of averages, one might predict that there will be 50 heads and 50 tails. While this is the single most likely outcome, there is only an 8% chance of it occurring. Predictions based on the law of averages are even less useful if the sample does not reflect the population.

So expecting this scenario to match a win because randomness says the most likely thing is a win is bad.
I understand what you're saying. And I no longer am advocating actual randomness. I'm advocating arbitrariness.

There's a good sociological/psychological backup argument I have as well. Most setups have the actual town winrate significantly encompass the theoretical random-lynch town winrate. The fact that this setup is an exception is highly suspect.

1. We only have 2 lynches and most (almost every one in this setup) early lynches are on town due to mafia manipulation.

2. Mafia has easy ways to nullify apparent interactions between each other. Scumhunting is ridiculously hard in this setup if mafia have an ounce of competence.

3. Once everyone is pretty much null, mafia can easily push through a mislynch based on bad logic.

4. The high volume of mafia in this setup combined with the small amount of time we have to actually nail them (notice that we need the entire town in order to get mafia) very easily screws over reads and discussion.
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Post Post #504 (isolation #152) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 498, Lalendra wrote:
In post 473, Mathdino wrote:My strategy relies on the fact that scumhunting is impossible with this setup, but limited townhunting is possible.
People say this all the time and i will never understand it. Aren't they just two sides of the same coin?
I forced a townslip out of my partner (and the other partner too). Take it or leave it. Mathblade is good as scum but I'd argue that from a spectator's POV, my slot is highly likely to be town.

What do you think of the Sky/Diamond slip? If you wanna lynch them instead I'll try to save you/cy.



Edit: The true listing is exactly what I posted except it's sheep/Tora and you/me.
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Post Post #510 (isolation #153) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:54 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Read the first page. Diamond and Sky are lovers. That should be all you need.
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Post Post #514 (isolation #154) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:58 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I mean then it's Sky and Diamond gaining towncred for being off the wagon. I doubt it's sheep/Tora and Red/hyung.
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Post Post #516 (isolation #155) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:59 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 511, Lalendra wrote:I'm not going to pretend to understand your math fully, but if there are 4 people on the wagon, how do i know that all four of you aren't scum, and the ones not jumping on the wagon aren't town? You could be scum taking a power town approach and espousing the random approach to look neutral. That would make sheep your scum buddy and makes it make sense that you are passively throwing shade at anyone not voting us and low key pressuring people to sheep your vote for town cred. Honestly that all makes so much sense that i would feel like i had the whole game figured out if it wasn't for how much i still don't like momo's slip or his response to it.
Do you disagree on the Diamond/Sky argument? Read page 1 again.
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Post Post #518 (isolation #156) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:02 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Also, Math/Math/sheep/Tora is a ridiculous theory. Do an ISO of me/sheep/Tora. I get it makes sense from like an armchair mafia standpoint (and from the POV of your paranoia), but it's not realistic. I had to strongarm sheep into going along with my idea too.
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Post Post #522 (isolation #157) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:05 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Sky, ctrl+f sheep's iso for "sold". Go to that post to see where I convinced sheep from scumreading me into agreeing with my strategy.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #158) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:09 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Tbqh VCA is mostly useless because scum will, ideally, (and, in previous setups, have) run each other up to L-2 and L-2 "proving" they aren't scum together and then let the town get paranoid and lynch town instead.

This massive deadline is hurting us. We need a flip.
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Post Post #529 (isolation #159) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:13 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Math, I hope you realise that whatever grand theory you have for all 4 scum put together is most likely exactly what scum wants you to think is correct. There are strategies for scum with this setup that completely counteract normally good scumhunting/analysis.

Plus, I agree that LyLo is easy (I've never lost LyLo as town [or ever]). The hard part is you have 6 townies and 4 scum and you need all 6 townies to agree on who scum is while the 4 scum are throwing chaos into the mix. It's not the scumhunting that's the problem. That part is easy when you know you're town.

The problem is the politics.

Edit: IDK dude I've read too many games with this setup with good scumhunters that lose
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Post Post #540 (isolation #160) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:31 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 535, Sky_Paladin wrote:@MathBlade when you are caught up, I would also caution you to examine the Tora/Sheep slot and it's buddying to your own. Dino's blanket acceptance and auto pass of the slot are one of the key reasons I am scumreading your slot.
How does telling them "Hey I'm scumreading your slot because Dino's been townreading Tora/Sheep, can you take a look at them?"

actually help Math come to an unbiased opinion?

I guess what I'm asking is, why tell them why you're scumreading us at all?
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Post Post #547 (isolation #161) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 541, Sky_Paladin wrote:bzzzt! This looks to me that you are complaining that my scumread is unfair, rather than actively going out and proving why you are town.

I intuitively want to townread Blade because he's doing the hard yards, but you're just browbeating players into submission and making no real effort outside of arbitrary and random lynch. Yes I accept that is your stated goal. It doesn't mean I like it.

I'm trying to get Blade to look at his partners supposed town reads because I can glean a lot from your net alignment by seeing what he does about it.
1. No, I don't know where you even got that impression. Also all I've been doing lately is trying to prove I'm town by the metrics that I use to scumhunt in this setup; getting my partner to townslip. I'm saying that telling them "Yo I'm scumreading your slot because of Dino's sheep/Tora read" does nothing to help read sheep/Tora. All you had to say was "I'm concerned about sheep/Tora, and Dino is townreading them, and I want your opinion". The way you phrased it almost looks like you're threatening Math into disagreeing with me.
That's
why I asked.

Remember when Misa replaced in and I asked people not to comment or lead her in some direction? If Math is gonna come up with reads, I'd like them to be unbiased as possible, as Math is the only townie I know I can trust.

2. That's utterly ridiculous. When asked for reads or comments on particular interactions, I say something. I've also brought new evidence to light. Even if you cut out every single post I've made about random lynching, I've still done more sorting/analysis than
literally everyone else here
. Except maybe sheep because hyperposting.

Your perception is skewed because I have a high percentage of posts about my strategy. But no one in this game is even active enough to provide other things to talk about.

3. Why should Math care about why I read things the way I do if they know I'm town? If we end up disagreeing on who to lynch, that's the point where we start to care.


I'm not accusing you of not making an effort. I think phrased differently, your questions would be good.

I'm accusing you of asking leading questions that don't help your stated goal of sorting us, and rather incentivise us agreeing with your ideas.
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Post Post #550 (isolation #162) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:19 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 549, Sky_Paladin wrote:I fully expect scum anticipated having to claim their thread and made plans to accomodate it; which is why I feel that Dino's bait-and-slip technique doesn't truly yield town/scumslips as he believes.
The majority of the original players in this game weren't even around during that period of time. I've been checking over the last few days.

cytheflyguy wasn't posting onsite from 27th to 31st. Him not posting at all is correct.

The guy I replaced siteflaked.

The guy sheep replaced siteflaked.

manrock probably actually did claim he was gonna hit 100 posts. Doesn't really seem like something scum would say in their PT.

IIRC Kop wasn't around during that period of time that he claims he didn't check the PT. His story checks out.

Most of our PTs are devoid of info due to low activity.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #163) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:54 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Or they just selected at random from the 4.

I don't think we can make much headway on the time at which they claimed. If I were mafia replacing a guy who wasn't even in the PT with a scumpartner who just said "Hello" in the PT, I'd probably just pick at random too to get a leg up on the claiming.
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Post Post #556 (isolation #164) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:31 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Okay look if we're getting into legit scumhunting planning mode (there's no going back to Economics Wonderland if my own partner isn't backing me up on this)

Think about this. We can potentially get the votes of sheep/Tora and Red/Hyung. Kop/momo is possible. Clearly cy/Lalendra and Sky/Diamond are very opposed to lynching the other pair. Is that a scumtell? I don't know. By Sky's logic, it is, but I have no idea, and I lowkey believe that one of the pairs is just trying to make it look like they're all scum together.

If cy/Lalendra is town, and we lynch them, Sky/Diamond are likely to fuck us over by voting with Math's alternate team Kop/momo/Red/hyung. Loss.

If Sky/Diamond is town, and we lynch them, we still have the votes tomorrow to counteract scum.

And because I'm definitely gonna get accused of this, yes, this is policy territory. I believe Sky/Diamond's fixation on everyone I'm townreading (and also total lack of apparent townreads) is a LyLo liability, if not scum. They're also very likely to be scum.


The main trouble with this setup, as I've said, is a political one. Thinking politically, Sky/Diamond is a significantly better lynch than Lalendra/cy. I believe Lalendra/cy, if not scum, will be better in LyLo tomorrow.

Unless you have reason to suspect one pair OVER the other, if we're gonna test the cy/Lalendra/Sky/Diamond thing, we should get Diamond.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #165) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:12 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I'm honestly gonna be pretty peeved if we lose this because Math's reads are wrong, like those of every town before us. I'd take the 70% winrate anyday. But if we're doing this,

VOTE: Diamond

I guess Math's reads are, in theory, as arbitrary as anyone's.

@sheep: Pure math is theoretical mathematics. Some crazy shit. Number theory is a major example. Prime numbers. Stuff like that.

Applied math is self-explanatory.
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Post Post #579 (isolation #166) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:44 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 576, MathBlade wrote:You realize I had logic for my reads right?

And with any luck will get one or two scum teammates to bus and have to limp off?
I would argue that I have more logic backing my diceroll idea (that doesn't actually have to be an in-thread diceroll, it could be based on like the units digit of the timestamp on New York Times' first article tomorrow) given that it produces a 70% winrate when town holds the dice.

But I mean. If cytheflyguy is actually mafia, I guess both our Maths are right. ;)

Edit I have not read the above
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Post Post #581 (isolation #167) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:49 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 578, Sky_Paladin wrote:The reason I was trying to get the Math slot to determine if Sheep was scum or not is because my interactions seemed to say they were, but if I was wrong (and they were town while Cy is scum), then sheep would be an easy mislynch.

I was desperately looking for an intelligent second opinion when the only people talking were Dino, Sheep, and Diamond.

I'm disappointed that Math has come to the wrong conclusion. The cynic in me says that it's because Sheep/Math really are scum but I'm now forced to vote Cy to stay in the game.
What pulled me over the line into switching to you guys was when you told Math that you were scumreading our slot because of my sheep townread (threateningggg).

Like I said before, had you asked something like "I'm getting a lot of interactive tells suggesting sheep is scum because 1. reason 2. reason, can you analyse their posts so I can get a second opinion?" I'd have been a lot more trusting.

But you know me. My entire strategy is resultant of my extreme never-before-seen paranoia that suggests that literally anyone talking to me about anything could be scum manipulating me. And the way you asked that indicated exactly that.

Write up a case on sheep. If you flip town I'll be able to hold your arguments in much better faith. Unfortunately your slot has been the least willing to compromise or come to a middle ground between Economics Wonderland and Normal Scumhunting until now with a gun to your head.
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Post Post #582 (isolation #168) » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Just keep in mind as well that having replaced into sheep's slot before and due to other factors, I'm well aware of sheep's meta, and playstyle is not a good argument. It's LyLo. I need motivation and a partner.
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Post Post #590 (isolation #169) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:47 am

Post by Mathdino »

mathblade i hope you understand scum don't have daytalk

i don't know if that's a mistake you're making but it might be because it's too early for mafia

also power wolfing is an idiotic strategy for longterm forum mafia

this is an open setup. i would never suggest a strategy i genuinely believed to not work because i don't think i'm good enough to unironically support a bad strategy and legitimately thought no one would ever call me out on my shit
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Post Post #593 (isolation #170) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:54 am

Post by Mathdino »

oh lol dude i pretty much ignored that post
but if we're playing the "bust this guy's balls" game
In post 585, Sky_Paladin wrote:I am unwilling to go into LYLO while that slot is still active and
if you are interested in playing the game of mafia
, you should be putting your votes there.
this is exactly the kind of ruthless appeal to emotion that you said you hated about lalendra
good sir, screw you
i dropped actually implementing the diceroll idea when it looks like no one's into it
the only reason i've kept arguing about it is ego and because people think i'm a scumfuck for it
but i've objectively been playing more mafia than most people here, including your partner (who you admit just rabble rouses and then sheeps you), the kop/momo slot (bye bitch), the redflavor/manrock slot (where tf are they), the sheep/Tora slot (no shit these guys are VI), and i'm pretty sure there's one other slot i'm completely forgetting so i'm hitting submit now
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Post Post #594 (isolation #171) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:10 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 587, Sky_Paladin wrote:'Everyone I am townreading' is a single slot - Tora and Sheep. It's not so hard to explain one read, Dino. That's all I've really asked you all game and you won't do it.
is it healthy for me to keep responding to this shit

who knows

i already explained this read

you just don't like it

i've also, at varying points, expressed a townread on RedFlavor/manrock's slot

go check my ISO

i've done a completely accurate political analysis of the gamestate and if you and i are in lylo together, you know we're just gonna tear each other apart

so yeah let's do it now
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Post Post #601 (isolation #172) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:42 am

Post by Mathdino »

i mean honestly i thought "hating arbitrary lynch" was lowkey a scumtell but then my partner did it
so fuck me right
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Post Post #604 (isolation #173) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:22 am

Post by Mathdino »

it's not against the rules i think but it's frowned upon

because most of the time it lowers town winrate by nulling any associations and also random lynching creates a low winrate in general

i've never suggested it before

besides even if the dice tag was against the rules you could just randomise based on the stockmarket or some shit
or the national debt
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Post Post #607 (isolation #174) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:44 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 606, Toranaga wrote:
In post 601, Mathdino wrote:i mean honestly i thought "hating arbitrary lynch" was lowkey a scumtell but then my partner did it
so fuck me right
lol fuck you sideways

idk still think it's cy;lalenda and sky;theother dude

also I'm pretty drunk rn, I don't use to drink so when I do I get wasted
go join another open game, this is basically not even a real game

i'd be so depressed if this was the only game i was playing

my open is queuing up once Masons and Monks hammers

and yeah that's our theory too so yeah

what do you think of kop/momo/red/manrock?
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Post Post #609 (isolation #175) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:47 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 608, sheepsaysmeep wrote:one does not simply get pre-ins for an open
idk how the hell you did it
off topic so i'm going to say something game relevant

drunkposting is a major major towntell so tora is probably still town

also if these guys flip town what's your theory?



anyway off topic, yeah the moment i /in'd to mod i got 1 pre-in. got another from sitechat and got another PM asking about it over the past day

i also have 1 person in the replacement queue

the flavour/style is gonna be cool but idk how they knew that :P
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Post Post #617 (isolation #176) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:32 pm

Post by Mathdino »

@Sky:
I understand all of that. And even if you are scum, I feel the need to defend myself here because I genuinely believe you would say all that as town anyway. This is more of a postgame rant but I'm probably not gonna care by then.

I came into this game already kind of nihilistic. I avoided the signups because I knew the setup was messed, but I wanted to insta-join a game so I chose to jump a replace and try my hand at setup-breaking (if I landed town).

Simply put, while it benefits me to change my mind and be malleable in my reads in a normal game where we have multiple days to go back, get flips, reevaluate, etc, it doesn't benefit me to change my mind here.

Because none of you mofos have given anything that I believe is townreadable in this setup, I rely on slips. I gave you reasons on townreading Tora. I did a quick analysis post somewhere. But besides all that. I'll tell you my thought process going through the game.

- okay so Diamond wants to claim, but that's irreversible, so lemme check first
- wait okay i saw a game that said we should wait for claims
- wait but the scum probably already planned out the claims anyway, so yeah i might as well claim
- okay a random lynch is pro-town, but how the hell are we gonna achieve a random lynch?
- the rest of the town has absolutely 0 reason to trust me. i'm never going to personally roll a die that could land on me. but from an observer's standpoint, if i'm scum and i roll, scum wins 70%. so in order to show good faith in my strategy, i need to find a townie and get them to do it.
- tora seems town and the way they're acting towards me seems pretty town.
- okay i'll lock them as town and try to get them to roll the dice and see what the rest of the town thinks about it
- okay the town fucking hates that idea but their RVS vote is equivalent to a random vote. so i can show the same good faith by sheeping that initial random vote and following their vote anywhere, because sheep's reads are equivalent to a dice roll.

I'm not reevaluating my read on sheep/Tora because I'm so far in that reevaluating them or unlocktowning them would completely unravel any semblance of a strategy I have.

If they are town, and the 4 of us can lynch 2 pairs other than us, we have a 83% chance of winning.

If they're not town, then fuck it I guess. It was a 67% chance that any given slot is town. I think the chance is slightly higher due to Tora's early behaviour. If they end up being scum, my entire strategy was doomed from the start. Rolled the dice and I lost.

But I'm comfortable losing to a low-chance dice roll as long as I know that I did the thing to maximise a win. I think that's what sets me apart from most players. Plus, highkey, I still believe scumhunting is total horseshit in this setup, because almost every lynch in this setup has been on town. And this isn't exactly a strong town by any means. I'm not comfortable taking what seems to be a 36% winrate when I could have a ~64% one by picking someone, locking them as town, and having them randolynch.

Let me know if you have any questions on any of that. Above list is an honest rendition of my stream of consciousness that I guess I could've outed earlier.
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Post Post #618 (isolation #177) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:36 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You know, now that it occurs to me, I think a major source of our misunderstanding (if there is one at all) is that I didn't really want to play this setup in the first place, and that was unclear because I'm actually here. I just replaced into the first low-pagecount game I could find.
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Post Post #621 (isolation #178) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:36 pm

Post by Mathdino »

1. I know. I looked at the game that town won. Figured at the very least they'll have had the discussion. And :lol: :lol: :lol: at you actually using my own "actual winrate is horrible" argument

2. I mean you could argue that about breaking any setup. But you're not voting me for being unsportsmanlike. You accept that I'm delivering a pro-town strategy, and then accusing me of scum doing one of:
A. Pretending to be okay with a random lynch for towncred when I know that others won't be down with that. Which is ludicrous because your slot is literally what stopped us from getting a majority.
B. Using my random lynch strategy for EVILLLLLL purposes. For example, if I know sheep/Tora are scum. But that's really the only situation in which this helps my scumteam. And in this case, you can't accuse me of being unsportsmanlike for setup-breaking.

3. Diamond you keep talking to me as if you think I'll eventually think "Oh, this is a normal game, I'll just apply Mafia Theory to it" (I'm only now considering scumhunting because my partner is unwilling to budge on the arbitrary lynch idea, and you know I couldn't have planned for that).

Like, you're ignoring what I've told you so many times about how I view this game. It's becoming an ego argument. I know I won't convince you. That's not my intent. My intent is to show every reason that my arguments are valid in
my mind
. I'm doing this to help myself be read. Like, every single goddamn time I explain what I was thinking 20 pages ago, you guys bring it up again with either more shit to give me (I know you disagree already) or more misrep (and I've explained everything sooooo many times). THAT's what's lengthening the thread.

I don't give a shit about what you think RVS should be used for. I used it for what I thought it should be used for.

4. Jesus christ, it's like you guys want me to drown the thread with wallposts by asking the same questions.

LET ME SPELL OUT MY SHEEP SHEEP STRATEGY


Actually, fuck it, I'll do it in another post and then I'M NOT EXPLAINING MY PAGE 1 AND 2 TRAINS OF THOUGHT AGAIN.
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Post Post #622 (isolation #179) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:37 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i'm reduced to making a towncase on my own page 1

what is this game

brb quote walling myself
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Post Post #623 (isolation #180) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:15 pm

Post by Mathdino »

LITERALLY A CASE ON MY OWN PROGRESSION, NOT DOING THIS AGAIN

In post 6, Mathdino wrote:I don't know about claiming lovers yet. I'm gonna check game history and see what They Who Came Before Us thought on the matter.
I was young and naive on post 6. At this point, I'd only read the setup. Hadn't done any serious reading.
In post 7, Mathdino wrote:Yeah okay so NO ONE CLAIM YOUR LOVERS YET

The wiki suggests that claiming early is bad but I'm still working through the literature on the subject

Another interesting thing is that lynching completely randomly actually benefits town. The problem is that random lynches don't happen because scum won't let it. I would actually be done with creating a townbloc that follows a dice tag in the thread. Would give us a 60% chance.

Not voting because it'll be obvious that whomever I vote isn't my lover.
At this point, I had ONLY read the entire wiki page. You can see this because I'm literally just parroting statements that the wiki page made. See for yourself.
In post 8, DiamondSentinel wrote:1. Let's not play to win, so to speak. Let's just play to play a battle of wits. So, no random lynching.
2. How could claiming lovers not help? Au contraire, since it's a nigthless setup, I think it's our biggest weapon here. If we claim lovers, we force the scum into pairs to begin with. Furthermore, if we have anyone super strong (I don't necessarily know if we do), if scum pressures their partner, it makes it pretty obvious. So, scum has to be careful about pressuring 2 slots in the case of one player being spot-on or whatever.
1. I basically ignored this as much as possible because I disagree with that philosophy.
2. This was slightly convincing to me but I wanted to read up first.
In post 9, DiamondSentinel wrote:Also, by claiming lovers, it lowers the pool for scum to bus from, and lower the amount of chaos we'd have.
This was bullshit. Feel free to ask me why but yeah.
In post 11, Mathdino wrote:Counterproposal. Through the day, we'll probably as a town come together on a townread of someone. That person will then dice roll 2 lynches that don't include themselves or their lover. In effect, we'll be playing kingmaker. If we're right about the king we elect being town, we then have an exactly 70% chance of winning by sheeping them.
This is me trying to come up with a compromise idea. The kingmaker idea came from me saying "Okay, they want a battle of wits, and townhunting is, to some extent, a battle of wits, so the townie can just rando the lynches". I was not, at this point in time, as nihilistic as I later became.
In post 13, Sky_Paladin wrote:My quick scan sees dice rolling as a tactic suggested. I appreciate the idea behind it but how to know that mafia aren’t loading the dice?
Also I kind of feel that using dice to decide goes against the spirit of the game.
The first point was bad because dice tags (remember that I came up with this idea knowing dice tags existed). Mafia cannot load dice.
I ignored the second point.
In post 18, Mathdino wrote:I propose electing someone we think is town to roll the dice and vote for someone other than them and their lover. So yes it would involve them loading the dice but they wouldn't be able to control the dice. No one would.
This is me formalising my idea on the philosophy that *I* can't the roll the dice because I could be scum, but it shows very good faith to have *someone else* roll the dice. My fatal flaw was that I started this too early, before we could locktown anyone by playing the game. Once I suggested this, I was doomed to pretty much have shit reads (because saying this changed the game).
In post 15, sheepsaysmeep wrote:wassup
In post 16, sheepsaysmeep wrote:happy new years
bye
In post 19, sheepsaysmeep wrote:i support claiming lovers
tl from diamond
I obviously had no reason to townread any of this.
In post 20, DiamondSentinel wrote:Yes. While I'm sure they haven't already decided, if they have one really really townread person and one scumread person, then the TR person could take charge and say "I'm lovers with [scumread person] so if you think that they're scum, you think I'm scum". It's to our advantage to claim ASAP.

Let's not dice-lynch.
The first point is what finally convinced me that claiming lovers was important. So congrats on that I guess. I also realised that scum probably coordinated claims in the PT. Which is probably bullshit since half the scum probably wasn't even there.
And I didn't really give a shit that you didn't wanna dice lynch.
In post 21, Mathdino wrote:Yeah that's fair. I guess me claiming doesn't really benefit me or town, but scum claiming does, so it's best to set a precedent. Yo I'm lovers with Amrororawrachurrochora. Your turn?

Also why not dice lynch?
Here I finally claim because your claim logic was solid, even if it provides a marginal advantage. I asked if you wanted to not dicelynch on the hopes that you had a better strategy.
In post 22, DiamondSentinel wrote:Also, fuck dice lynches. This is a game of "skill" and a battle of "wits". Dice have no place in this.
You did not. This is where our battle began.
In post 23, RedFlavor wrote:Hello
Happy new years
Lets random lynch, mathdinos counterproposal seems interesting
Idk if we should claim lovers or not
The first post that wasn't from me or your slot. By this point I was lowkey in kingmaker mode, so I was on the lookout for things to townread.
My gut said to townread this because he agreed. But then I realised he might be dumb scum (not inconsistent with RedFlavor) who didn't realise that my idea was good and that random lynching would actually likely fuck him over.
In post 24, Mathdino wrote:I wonder if we'd have a higher chance of winning this game by playing kingmaker then, where the king we make straight up chooses the lynch straight up. We model open games by assuming random lynch; the flaw being that lynches aren't random, and in a game with such a high percentage of scum, lynching scum is unlikely. I wonder if we'd have better odds trying to townhunt and sheep. Will come up with a model and get back to this.
This is the point at which I was also beginning my Econ 101 class. You can kinda tell. I'm also, once again, just repeating things the wiki said.
You can see the beginnings of my "easier to townhunt than scumhunt" strategy. The idea at the time was that it's far more likely for the town to agree on a towniest member and be right, than it is for the "town" to agree on a scummiest person and be right. Doing this was a political move in an attempt to counteract the scum's weight.

So I go off to actually factcheck my own kingmaker strategy.
In post 25, Toranaga wrote:random lynch GOAT

also I'm lovers with someone I forgot which makes me lock town

also never lynching amrochora even if she is a wolf
In post 26, Toranaga wrote:
In post 14, LlamaFluff wrote:
sheepsaysmeep replaces jzhenson93
ah ok it was literally this guy

hi sheep
In post 27, Mathdino wrote:^i unironically believe this shit at face value and will in return also never lynch toranaga/sheep

Great progress on the scumhunting front, folks.

I on the other hand have made no progress in modeling kingmaking polygamist vs normal lynch polygamist. See you next year.
FINALLY my first townread. I townread this slot because I interpret "I forgot who I'm lovers with" as a slight townslip. Plus hypothetical scum buddying up to my slot read as a very very bad idea if they knew my slot was town. I recognised that doing this mutual townread would be scummy as shit but it was also my best lead.

You'll notice that I came up with a townread before I came up with a kingmaker idea. My intent at first was to PoE the scum by townhunting.
In post 28, Mathdino wrote:An argument that jzhenson and my slot are both town: Scum loves to whine to the mod when one of their members straight up doesn't show up. These fuckers didn't post a single thing in their PTs (I assume, correct me if I'm wrong Tora) for 3 fucking days and the mod still started the game. Locktown.

VOTE: Lalendra as good a PoE vote as any
Here I came up with another reason that the 2 guys who got replaced on gamestart are town.
Since I was still into a random lynch idea, I just arbitrarily'd someone who wasn't here yet.
In post 31, Toranaga wrote:I'm only now reading the game properly, and for some reason I thought you were lovers with pisskop :P just realised you're the replacement and lovers with amrochora.

I thought we should all claim, because then you can read one or both heads of a lover claim as scummy and that's where you wanna lynch.
1. More townslippiness.
2. The second argument makes no sense at all and reads as VI town coming up with an original idea. I ask myself, does this make sense as something scum would say?
No, it has 0 utility. Asking everyone else to claim doesn't help scum.
In post 33, Toranaga wrote:I kinda like this game now lol

I expect it to be filled with replacements if it takes too long though
Oh how wrong you were on point 1 and how right you were on point 2.
In post 35, Toranaga wrote:LOL

there's a good chance both amrochora and manrock forgot all about this game

it's too bad, I like playing with them

also I believe you too. game highly POE'd down already imo
Again buddies up to my slot (low utility as scum) and then intends to use it for PoE. PoEing my slot out of the lynchpool doesn't help scum at all.
In post 44, sheepsaysmeep wrote:VOTE: cy

no one showing up :'(
The first RVS vote by a slot I trusted.
In post 45, Mathdino wrote:VOTE: cy

Sheeping sheep. Sheep me!
Because I wanted to make a truly arbitrary vote that would also be arbitrary to you guys, I couldn't just random vote someone myself. Because I could be scum choosing to vote town.
In order to show my good faith and true belief in my strat, I had to sheep someone else I was townreading (already was) on whoever they vote. My honest willingness to vote literally anyone that sheep voted would, I hoped, help convince you guys I was town, and thus my strategy was in good faith.
Note that my theory of this setup is that while in a normal game, mafia doesn't care who we lynch while town does? In this game, mafia heavily cares who we lynch while town doesn't (or shouldn't). I hoped it would become obvious that I wouldn't put the lynch in some total rando's hands if I were scum (because we could just accidentally lynch my partners, or the person I sheep could decide to lynch me/Amro).
The reason I sheeped sheep is because sheep voted first. That's it. Otherwise I'd have said sheep Tora.

Note: I'm gonna repeat this. Yes, I said I intentionally acted in a way to convince you guys I was town. Do not take this out of context. I specifically did that because a common Open Queue trope is someone breaking the setup and the rest of the town being like WELL WHAT IF YOU'RE SCUM MANIPULATING THE POWER ROLES or WHAT IF YOUR STRATEGY SECRETLY BENEFITS SCUM. I did not want to deal with this bullshit. Unfortunately, I had to anyway.
In post 48, Mathdino wrote:Well sheep's vote is equivalent to a dice lynch so why not compromise and join the locktown wagon?
This is why I liked RVS. Don't bitch to me about theory or why we use RVS. I wanted to use it to generate a truly random vote from my perspective. The ONLY way that vote wasn't totally random from my perspective is if the scumteam was me/lover/sheep/Tora, which I figured people would think is crazy. Lo and behold, the people who started proposing that 20 years later are exactly the people that have always been in my lynchpool.
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Post Post #626 (isolation #181) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:21 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I'll give you even more, because I seriously don't want questions on this shit.

Tora was my very first townread. I believe this makes that read more worthwhile. Over the course of the next few pages (read them) I came to a lowkey townread on RedFlavor/manrock but no other real reads. I thought about how everything I was reading was basically null and realised that this setup is shit for me because I scumhunt at my best with flips.

I believe that more time without lynching gives scum more time to manipulate me or learn to figure out what I townread people for. I literally asked the mod to SHORTEN the deadline so we can actually get a flip. With the exception of that early townread, almost all of my tells became null over the next 20 pages, as I realised that people were figuring out what I might read them for and thus scum would act in such a way as to get townread.

The moment I suggested a strategy of "Let's find the towniest townie" and "Let's PoE" I had to start nulling things. Every scum would want to be in that PoE block. And there's no accountability for that hypothetical PoE block because 2 lynches and we lose.

So that's why my reads haven't budged. I'm also afraid that my read was originally right (often my earliest strongest read is right) and any discussion with you guys would lead to either
A. You guys manipulating me out of my read
or
B. You guys manipulating EVERYONE ELSE out of my read. And I needed another pair that I believe is town and that everyone else believes is town in order for my strategy to be manipulated.

Edit: I don't intend you to, sheep.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #182) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Yeah I mean. I don't doubt that what you're telling me is exactly identical to what you'd tell me as town. And you I think you at this point believe that what I'm telling you is also what I'd tell you as town. We're at a playstyle impasse.

I mean would you be more comfortable if I promised you that against all my wishes I'll just lynch sheep/Tora tomorrow after you die? My issue is that I've already established myself as locking sheep as town, and breaking that promise would fully give everyone the right to lynch me for that.
I'd
lynch me for that. I'm not in the business of doing things that literally make me deserve a lynch under my own principles.
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Post Post #630 (isolation #183) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:16 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 629, DiamondSentinel wrote:You could just not lynch me. I mean, you admit here that you think I'd say the exact same thing town or scum. So why are you attempting to lynch me? Is it because I've been at odds with your 2 biggest efforts here?
This current conversation you've been having with me, and the last 5 billion convos you've been having with me about theory, are not why I or my partner is scumreading you.

It's kind of a utility lynch. I don't believe, at this point, that you'll vote with the townbloc I'm personally relying on for LyLo. I believe your read on me has been too set in stone for that. So assuming you're town, if I don't lynch you today, then I have to 100% find the scumteam today. And my strategy doesn't have any way to reliably find scum on D1. The point is to aggregate D1 and D2.

Yes, it's lowkey OMGUS, but here's an analogy.
You're a townie with 1 scum left. 5 players. One player who is a little scummy by association has been gunning for you the whole game. You have little reason to believe they'll change their mind in LyLo. Furthermore, you know for sure that if they're town, scum will leave them alive and let them lynch you in LyLo.

You can't lynch scum if they're alive tomorrow unless scum happens to be them and you can convince the remaining townie. But the player has a chance at convincing that townie.

So you prepare yourself for LyLo by lynching that player, praying to god they're scum (and they are scummy) and then saying, well, I had to lynch someone only for them to flip town, I'd rather it be them. This at least puts you in an okay spot later on.

I'm honestly not sure any of the above is even town indicative. I haven't thought through it but it's possibly also scum's ideal strategy if they were in my slot.

We're at a really really weird impasse.

I assume you want me to lynch sheep/Tora today.
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Post Post #639 (isolation #184) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:42 pm

Post by Mathdino »

the fuck is that L-1, sheep
that reaction test is so useless in this environment

someone actually put them at L-1, they and cy/Lalendra have both given no indication in terms of "who should we lynch tomorrow"

if they're town, it's important to my personal strategy that they tell me things i can trust later
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Post Post #644 (isolation #185) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:44 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 632, MathBlade wrote:Furthermore don’t ever do what you did to me at the start of my replace in ever again. Seriously don’t punk your mason buddy like that.
How did this hurt you?

I did that to try to reaction test Math/Math/sheep/Tora for the benefit of those thinking that's the team. The fact that I specifically scrambled those teams and none others is indicative of that.
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Post Post #647 (isolation #186) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:56 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Tora, if you put Dia at L-1, we can just speedlynch anyone who quickhammers.


The pressure is importante.

@momo:
HURT: DiamondSentinel
you're welcome
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Post Post #649 (isolation #187) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:19 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Request replacement on Kop.
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Post Post #650 (isolation #188) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:21 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 634, LlamaFluff wrote:Kop has been prodded
fuck i didn't see this, sorry mod

request replacement if he doesn't respond in good faith (outside of prod dodge) but that's obvious
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Post Post #653 (isolation #189) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:36 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Okay cool last words of one townie is good to me. Now that that's settled:

@Mathblade
: Couple things.

1. How are you reading this?

2. What exactly does Diamond/Sky/cy/Lalendra do in this situation to not get lynched?

3. What exactly does Diamond/Sky-scum who's pairs with someone else, do in this situation?

4. Should we just lynch cy instead? Why did the cy and momo wagons stay grounded while the Sky wagon has taken off?

5. So they're townreading us now (I think), which fucks the policy side of my argument. What does that mean?

Edit: @Sky: "Letting the town do what it will" will just result in mafia doing a shitton of distancing. You know very well that scum would and should temporarily bus to distance in this setup. High stakes mean bluffs often work. It's like going all-in.

Luckily I'm in the business of calling all-ins when the odds are in my favour.
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Post Post #665 (isolation #190) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:34 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 660, DiamondSentinel wrote:The only thing that I would ever suggest a policy/utility lynch for would be just straight-up bad play; someone [cough sheep cough refusing to actually try in the game. To say "this person disagrees with me so we should lynch them" is almost exactly like a scum telling their buddies "this person is on to us, so kill them".

As for the sheep/tora lynch? Yes. It's definitely my strongest read. Sheep is blatantly scum, and also is just playing (if you can even call it that) shittily. He's not even trying. Regular lynch + policy lynch = yes please lynch
You seem not only unaware of sheep's meta of being shitty but also not willing to consider it.

@Sky/Diamond:
I'll give you guys a chance here.

I need you to do 2 things to shake my sheep read.

1.
sheep
: This looks strongly like policy territory. I need you to do a case that points out scum motivation in his posts and gets me a scumpartner set. I'm obviously personally disinclined to lynch someone who's at least willing to follow my logic. And don't give me the general "oh sheep skates along and does nothing all game" because you know, I replaced into his townslot once, I know this. Literally a shitposting middle schooler.

2.
Tora
: The reason I'm not shaking this read is the repeated townslips. I need you to get me evidence (ideally based on meta) that "townslips" are NAI and are faked by Tora. Also need evidence for open buddying of town. That part less so.

Do this and I'll strongly consider voting either sheep/Tora, or whomever you think is their partner (I would be more comfortable with this).
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Post Post #666 (isolation #191) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:37 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 659, DiamondSentinel wrote:I do have a null!town on Lalendra. Cy hasn't done anything noteworthy.
Also how the fuck are you nulltowning Lalendra?

I asked her for a Last Will set of reads and she completely ignored it. Wtf in her ISO indicates town?

Talk to me as if you believe I'm town. I'm obviously unwilling to listen to "she pushed against the scum in you/sheep/Tora".
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Post Post #668 (isolation #192) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:44 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You used I think 3/10 of your limited number of posts to spam.
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Post Post #670 (isolation #193) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Almost your entire ISO consists of voting obvtown for "rolefishing" and trying to cast doubt on the one town PR (when the mod already said there would be just one PR, and otherwise it's 2v7).

Edit: I'm just gonna start linking as much as possible. Read it. (If that's not the right link it's still on the same page)

I'm saying that I offered Lalendra a deal: If she flips town, I can trust that she won't arbitrarily scumread town on purpose. So I'd be tentatively willing to just lynch who she wanted me to tomorrow. Being Nightless there's no danger in full reads listing. She wasn't exactly forthcoming. Giving up reads scum.
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Post Post #671 (isolation #194) » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:52 pm

Post by Mathdino »

smh i meant
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Post Post #690 (isolation #195) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:11 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 689, MathBlade wrote:I also need to hook this game up to my tool and go through and see which groups never voted each other throughout the game.
Math, this is based on false assumptions, I'm telling you.

It literally says in the wiki that a great scum strategy here is to just run each other up to L-1 and nuke any associations.

Read what previous scumgames have done. I highly doubt just taking the stance of "scum wouldn't vote each other" would've won you those games.

I don't see why you think it'll win this one.
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Post Post #693 (isolation #196) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:21 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 691, Toranaga wrote:I can vote anyone that isn't your hydra, momo's, or redflavour's. think I made that super clear already
Then you've fully 100% PoE'd the game.

So what's the scumteam if:

1. Diamond/Sky flip town

2. cy/Lalendra flip town

Edit: what the hell
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Post Post #696 (isolation #197) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

Also both of you need to link your meta's. Specifically scumgames.
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Post Post #698 (isolation #198) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:28 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 674, Sky_Paladin wrote:In the mean time, if Naga/Sheep could be so kind as to provide me with samples of some of their scum/town games I would appreciate it. I see Sheep has 57 threads active but many of them are games they replaced into recently or are not actually games at all.

Also if you (Dino) know of any alts that sheep plays under to help me look for some common scum/town tells I would appreciate it. If you've dived my meta as you claimed you have then you will know what I'm going to do, but it does take a significant amount of time.
I have some MU meta of sheep if he doesn't link it.

sheep isn't an alt. I don't know about Tora. sheep will probably comment on his own meta but I can't (also because I haven't really done the work on it).

I don't actually know what you're about to do. I don't remember metaing you tbh. If I did it was probably super light and not to figure out how you scumhunt/metadive.

Hammers are scum.
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Post Post #703 (isolation #199) » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:44 am

Post by Mathdino »

are you even aware that sheep/tora are lovers momo

please read
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