Open 704: Switch (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 2.02

Chip Butty (1) - Maxous
havingfitz (1) - Sauce
Maxous (1) - Not_Mafia
mutantdevle (1) - Almost50

Not Voting (4) - Chip Butty, Elmo TeH AzN, havingfitz, mutantdevle

With 8 votes, it will take 5 to reach majority.

The deadline is Sunday, January 14, 2018, at 9:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-14 21:00:00).

Moderator Comments

havingfitz is on V/LA from December 29 to January 3.

[mutantdevle]

I don't like these two quotes. First, mutant appears to be sure the SK shot the Cop (means the SK in immune to Mafia shots and not Town action). Then he realizes his slip and corrects it in the second quote stating the SK shot Lalendra which directly contradicts his first "assumption".

When I read this post I was heavily confused because I was just thinking "when did I ever say the SK shot the cop? I literally do not say that anywhere". I had to re-read my post 3 times before I realised I had accidentally used the word 'mafia' rather than 'SK'. I was heavily tired at the point of making both of those posts (I posted each of them at almost 2 AM if you don't believe me). So in reality, I was making no assumption in my original post as I simply just used the wrong word. My second post was realising that ofc Raya was shot by the vig since Lalendra was heavily considered town and Raya was considered scum. This is also something that I did not fully process at the time due to tiredness.

So your further theory doesn't hold up of the mafia letting the cop live. I firmly believe the mafia most definitely shot math and I wouldn't want you to get tangled on that idea. Of course, I acknowledge that "I just used the wrong word" could be an easily fabricated excuse by scum even though, on this occasion, it is the truth. I guess you're just going to have to trust me on that.

[Almost50]

Since the Mafia didn't know whether the SK was NK or cop/vig immune, they must've felt compelled to shoot the cop. A clever SK, regardless of chosen immunity, would've known this, and would've felt free to dispose of threats.

Raya was actively contributing to the game, and flipped scum had voted her, so a clever SK would've anticipated that Raya would not have been in today's lynching pool.

Who benefits the most from Raya's death?

This all looks good .. UNTIL we get to Lalendra. If the Mafia shot the Cop and the SK shot Raya then the Vig shot Lalendra, and I don't see a Town Vig shooting Lalendra over most anyone else.

If the Mafia did shoot the Cop then the Vig shot Raya and the SK shot Lalendra, which -again- makes no sense as a SK target, let alone the Vig had better options over Raya.

Regardless, my lynch pool is in mutant/Chip/fitz/Max, and I'm confident 3 of them are anti-town, so my only worry is for me to push the one townie in the four of them (I know my luck).

[mutantdevle]

Lalendra, which -again- makes no sense as a SK target,

Unless they felt threatened by Lalendra, which would point to Sauce or Fitz. But I'm not going to blindly follow that since I fail to see how Lalendra could be a threat at all.

[Almost50]

I guess you're just going to have to trust me on that.

The problem is I don't have the luxury of trusting anyone anymore. Things could/would have been much better if another Mafia or the SK were shot last night.

However, IF I chose to trust you here then I have to vote Chip. It has to do with the wagon on Bins. I'm Town (confirmed to myself), Mathdino was the Cop, I hard TR N_M, Lalendra also flipped Town, and finally Raya flipped Town.

This only leaves Chip (5th vote) and you (6th) to suspect for the usual busing partner. The question is why is your vote not on Chip (or me or N_M if you don't TR one of us)? Or do you believe the whole wagon on Bins was all town??

[Chip Butty]

More theory talk: if we nail the SK the Vig will definitely be shut down, so only one death at night.

We are 5-2-1 now. Assuming we lynch the SK = 5-2 and tomorrow we are 4-2 (traditional MyLo).

If we lynch Mafia today though it would be 5-1-1 and it's anyone guess how many town deaths at night. Scum could cross kill, or could hit town. the Vig may shoot scum, Town or not at all. This is confusing but it has the benefit of the Vig having a chance to do something at night, plus the chance of scum cross killing each other.

Everyone's opinion/feedback is welcome.

This is the way to look at this:

It's 5-2-1. 3 scenarios. 1. We lynch town 2. We lynch SK. 3.We lynch mafia.

1. 4-2-1. Worst case scenario: SK, mafia, and vig hit separate town targets = 1-2-1 and we lose. Even if the vig doesn't shoot, it's 2-2-1 (so the game would continue, I guess?). So if we lynch town, vig should holster.

2. 5-2-0. Wcs: 2 town deaths = 3-2-0.

3. 5-1-1. Wcs: 3 town deaths = 2-1-1.

[Chip Butty]

A50, you're looking at this wrong. No way does mafia shoot anybody else but MD last night. It was screamingly obvious he was the real cop.

[Sauce]

I hard TR N_M

Now or day1?

My second post was realising that ofc Raya was shot by the vig since Lalendra was heavily considered town and Raya was considered scum. This is also something that I did not fully process at the time due to tiredness.

Did you factor in Bins' vote on Raya, and the fact that those townreads on Lalendra were due to a couple of early post addressing random votes mostly?

[Chip Butty]

What is interesting is that the SK didn't shoot him. I think they must have assumed mafia would.

[Almost50]

3. 5-1-1. Wcs: 3 town deaths = 2-1-1.

This is also a Town loss as both scum sides would be able to kill. We would need all the luck in the world for us to come up winners in this situation.

[Sauce]

It's not in the interest of town to propagate the discussion Almost50 has been busy inciting.

This all looks good .. UNTIL we get to Lalendra. If the Mafia shot the Cop and the SK shot Raya then the Vig shot Lalendra, and I don't see a Town Vig shooting Lalendra over most anyone else.

Is this going to amount in scumhunting soon or will it linger on as vig hunting?

[Almost50]

I hard TR N_M

Now or day1?

Since he tried to provide some cover for Mathdino after the latter hard claimed Cop.

@Chip: I know Math was obvious Cop. I'm saying Mafia may have been high on his read list to not fear being checked last night and thus were hoping he would come back with a guilty on the SK, or a clear on Townie they would hen dash out from their possible SK list.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

A50, you're looking at this wrong. No way does mafia shoot anybody else but MD last night. It was screamingly obvious he was the real cop.

What is interesting is that the SK didn't shoot him. I think they must have assumed mafia would.

So your saying the mafia shot him? But who would have shot Raya the Vig. I don't see why the SK would have shot Dino just because odds are they took Investigation protection. Just a hunch but if the person has great town cred why not look at them?

Im waiting for NM to chime in now

Not feeling the SK shooting the cop though.

[Chip Butty]

I think MD was directing the vig to Raya. If SK shot Lalendra, it might be 1. She fakecrumbed earlier or 2. Alternative kills would have pointed back at the SK. I'm leaning toward the latter, as I've never known Lalendra to crumb. Which means let's look at who was anti-Lalendra.

[Sauce]

I hard TR N_M

Now or day1?

Since he tried to provide some cover for Mathdino after the latter hard claimed Cop.

you can't be serious.

[Chip Butty]

3. 5-1-1. Wcs: 3 town deaths = 2-1-1.

This is also a Town loss as both scum sides would be able to kill. We would need all the luck in the world for us to come up winners in this situation.

Yeah, so vig should holster in this scenario.

[Chip Butty]

I hard TR N_M

Now or day1?

Since he tried to provide some cover for Mathdino after the latter hard claimed Cop.

you can't be serious.

I agree with Sauce here. It was a weak-ass attempt and he didn't really try to be convincing. Anyway, pointless, since he claimed a true guilty. Mafia would never let him live after that , with no doc.

[Chip Butty]

I hard TR N_M

Now or day1?

Since he tried to provide some cover for Mathdino after the latter hard claimed Cop.

@Chip: I know Math was obvious Cop. I'm saying Mafia may have been high on his read list to not fear being checked last night and thus were hoping he would come back with a guilty on the SK, or a clear on Townie they would hen dash out from their possible SK list.

Possible, but unlikely, i think.

[Chip Butty]

A50, you're looking at this wrong. No way does mafia shoot anybody else but MD last night. It was screamingly obvious he was the real cop.

What is interesting is that the SK didn't shoot him. I think they must have assumed mafia would.

So your saying the mafia shot him? But who would have shot Raya the Vig. I don't see why the SK would have shot Dino just because odds are they took Investigation protection. Just a hunch but if the person has great town cred why not look at them?

Im waiting for NM to chime in now

Not feeling the SK shooting the cop though.

Just to be clear, I'm saying it is almost certain mafia shot MD...

[Almost50]

It's not in the interest of town to propagate the discussion Almost50 has been busy inciting.

This all looks good .. UNTIL we get to Lalendra. If the Mafia shot the Cop and the SK shot Raya then the Vig shot Lalendra, and I don't see a Town Vig shooting Lalendra over most anyone else.

Is this going to amount in scumhunting soon or will it linger on as vig hunting?

You're reading but you're not paying attention, are you?

I believe you are Town. I believe N_M is Town. I believe Elmo is Town.

One of Chip/mutant is MAFIA. The other could either be Town or the SK.

Maxous/fitz also have one Mafia in them. The other could be the SK or a Townie.

Ho much more details do you want my read list to be? Maybe I should hack the Mod's account and look at the PMs and come back to report who is whom with 100% accuracy??

What I'm trying to do with my "who shot whom" theories is decide whether it's best to lynch Mafia or the SK first, based on whether the SK is immune to the Vig or the Mafia shot. If they're immune to Mafia then the main threat to them is the Vig, so are more likely to shoot TOWN. If they're immune to the Vig shot then they'll try their best to hit Mafia tonight. How hard is it for you to see where I'm coming from?

[Almost50]

Between Chip and mutant I think I'm more suspicious of Chip still. It has been the case on D1 and it's coming back o me now. Something's not right in his posts, I don't know what exactly, but I have an urge to lynch this today.

VOTE: Chip Butty

[Chip Butty]

Between Chip and mutant I think I'm more suspicious of Chip still. It has been the case on D1 and it's coming back o me now. Something's not right in his posts, I don't know what exactly, but I have an urge to lynch this today.

VOTE: Chip Butty

Because I'm not rolling with your pet theory?

You might be obvtown, but that doesn't mean your logic is good.

[Sauce]

It's not in the interest of town to propagate the discussion Almost50 has been busy inciting.

This all looks good .. UNTIL we get to Lalendra. If the Mafia shot the Cop and the SK shot Raya then the Vig shot Lalendra, and I don't see a Town Vig shooting Lalendra over most anyone else.

Is this going to amount in scumhunting soon or will it linger on as vig hunting?

You're reading but you're not paying attention, are you?

I believe you are Town. I believe N_M is Town. I believe Elmo is Town.

One of Chip/mutant is MAFIA. The other could either be Town or the SK.

Maxous/fitz also have one Mafia in them. The other could be the SK or a Townie.

Ho much more details do you want my read list to be? Maybe I should hack the Mod's account and look at the PMs and come back to report who is whom with 100% accuracy??

What I'm trying to do with my "who shot whom" theories is decide whether it's best to lynch Mafia or the SK first, based on whether the SK is immune to the Vig or the Mafia shot. If they're immune to Mafia then the main threat to them is the Vig, so are more likely to shoot TOWN. If they're immune to the Vig shot then they'll try their best to hit Mafia tonight. How hard is it for you to see where I'm coming from?

First, I gave you no reason to doubt my comprehension.
Second, nobody except the SK knows which immunity he chose, and there's no advantage to be gained from trying to factor that into contemplation with regard to who the next target will be.
Third. I know who mafia is and I don't know who the SK so for me trying to decide which I'd lynch first is not a meaningful line of thought.

I don't see how a townie would townread N_M, except maybe some sort of tone or meta read which you haven't expressed, and I don't find your methods of searching for mafia very effective, because you're not addressing Bins' posts, nor are you scumhunting independently of that.

What reasons did you have for switching to Raya?

@Chip why is Almost obvtown?

[Sauce]

Wow, a bunch of "slips" there.
I meant to say I don't know who mafia is and I didn't mean to assume the SK's gender.

[Chip Butty]

@Sauce: that's a reasonable question. It's jusy an impression, albeit a strong one.

Nobody voted Lalendra d1, and her vote was on you through several VCs before she jumped on the bins wagon. So you're the strongest living link to her. Comments?